基于农户个体行为的珠江流域氮、磷营养盐控制政策情景分析

为揭示农户个体行为与流域农业非点源营养盐产生和控制政策之间的逻辑关系,以珠江流域为研究对象,采用系统动力学模型与多主体农户和农村环境管理模型耦合构建流域营养盐污染控制政策的情景分析方法,基于农户在化肥税和农药税组合型政策下的生产行为设计了基准情景、低化肥税情景、中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景4种具有代表性的情景方案,并在各种情景下定量描述流域营养盐对农业政策的响应和评估流域营养盐控制的优选政策方案.结果显示:从农业投入和产出的角度看,2030年低化肥税情景、中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景的化肥施用量相对基准情景分别减少了24.0%、39.8%和50.2%,农药使用量分别减少了27.6%、32.8%和37.4%,农作物产量分别减少了10.0%、16.3%和21.2%,畜禽养殖量分别增加了5.9%、7.5%和14.0%;2030年,基准情景、低化肥税情景、中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景的总氮入河量分别达到94.5、85.1、78.5和75.3万t,总磷入河量分别达到14.0、12.8、12.0和11.6万t;化肥税和农药税的组合型政策能够有效减少营养盐污染量,然而,中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景比低化肥税情景的边际效果小、经济成本高、农作物产出低和畜禽污染高,故低化肥税情景被认为是控制珠江流域营养盐污染的最优方案.     

江西省万安水库对氮、磷营养盐的滞留效应

以江西省万安水库为研究对象,于2007-2009年丰、枯水期对水库进行了人库、出库水样采集,研究了万安水库对氮、磷营养盐的滞留效应.结果表明,万安水库对氮、磷营养盐存在显著滞留作用.DIN浓度和输送通量整体均表现为入库>出库,受径流量季节变化的影响.不同时期DIN的滞留情况整体表现为枯水期<丰水期;TP浓度和输送通量整...     

水体氮、磷营养盐水平对蓝藻优势形成的影响

以江苏省南京市富营养化程度不同的清溪、护城河、玄武湖、月牙湖、琵琶湖和前湖为研究对象,调查各水体浮游植物的群落特征和优势种,并结合藻类生长潜力试验,探究不同氮、磷营养水平的自然水体对铜绿微囊藻（Microcystis aeruginosa）和斜生栅藻（Scenedesmus obliquus）生长与竞争的影响.野外调查发现不同营养水平水体浮游植物优势种不同,按水体富营养化程度从高到底依次以绿藻、蓝藻、硅藻和隐藻分别占优势.单一藻种培养时,铜绿微囊藻在清溪、护城河和玄武湖水体中生长均较好,而斜生栅藻仅在高氮、磷浓度的清溪和护城河水体中有较大生长量,说明斜生栅藻对氮、磷的需求高于铜绿微囊藻;两种藻共培养时,清溪水体中斜生栅藻占优势,护城河和玄武湖水体中铜绿微囊藻占优势,但其他水体中两种藻均不能生长,说明氮、磷浓度过高或过低都不利于蓝藻形成优势.对低营养水平的玄武湖、琵琶湖、月牙湖和前湖水体进行氮、磷加富后,两种藻均能较好地生长,且各组没有显著差异,说明藻类在这些水体中生长受到氮、磷的限制,氮、磷浓度升高会增加水华发生的风险.本研究将野外调查和藻类生长潜力实验相结合,深入探究了蓝藻优势形成与水体氮、磷营养水平的关系,揭示了蓝藻水华是湖泊富营养化发展到特定阶段的产物,水体氮、磷浓度过高或过低均不易产生蓝藻优势.     

夏季滇池和入滇河流氮、磷污染特征

为探讨滇池入湖河流水体营养盐空间分布特征及其对滇池水体富营养化的影响,2014年7月采集了入滇4类典型河流(城市纳污型河流、城乡结合型河流、农田型河流、村镇型河流)及滇池水样,分析其氮、磷浓度.结果表明:4条入湖河流总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、硝态氮和氨氮污染均较严重;河流水体中TN、TP平均浓度大小为:农田型河流(大河)村镇型河流(柴河)城乡结合型河流(宝象河)城市纳污型河流(盘龙江),其中农田型河流(大河)水体TN、TP污染最为严重;在夏季,4条入湖河流水体中TN、TP浓度从上游向下游增加趋势比较明显,表明氮、磷沿河流不断富集;氮磷比分析表明,夏季河流输入氮、磷营养盐有利于藻类的生长,并且滇池浮游植物生长主要受TN浓度限制;夏季滇池南部入湖河流水体的TN、TP浓度高于北部入湖河流,该特征与滇池水体中TN、TP污染分布状况相反,推测滇池北部富营养化的主要影响因素是内源释放.因此,在今后的滇池水体富营养化研究中,应对滇池内源释放进行深入研究.     

亚热带地区典型水库流域氮、磷湿沉降及入湖贡献率估算

为了探究汤浦水库流域氮、磷湿沉降对水库水体营养的贡献率,本研究对2014 2015年的汤浦水库流域4个采样点的雨水及3条溪流进行样品收集,测定其中磷和不同形态氮的质量浓度,分析汤浦水库流域大气湿沉降中氮、磷营养盐的分布特征,并估算氮、磷营养盐湿沉降对汤浦水库入库负荷的贡献率.结果表明:湿沉降中总氮(TN)平均浓度为1.02±0.58 mg/L,氨氮、硝态氮和有机氮浓度占TN浓度的比例分别为60.65%、34.07%和5.28%;总磷(TP)平均浓度为0.033±0.028 mg/L.4个采样点湿沉降中氮、磷浓度均表现为冬春季(少雨季)高、夏秋季(多雨季)低.空间上,王化点位的各形态氮和总磷浓度显著高于其他3个采样点.TN和TP年均湿沉降通量约为18.15和0.62 kg/(hm~2·a),年均沉降总量为834.94和28.39 t;库区TN和TP水面湿沉降量为24.14和0.82 t,直接贡献率占河流输入的1.77%和3.07%.湿沉降来源的氮、磷营养盐随河流输入的间接贡献率为8.3%和4.6%.综上所述,氮、磷湿沉降是水库外源营养的重要输入部分,深入掌握其时空分布特征及入库贡献率是进一步加强流域管理和减轻水库外源营养输入的重要前提.     

东巢湖沉积物—水界面氮、磷、氧迁移特征及意义

以东巢湖近城市湖湾沉积物为研究对象,在沉积物氮、磷营养盐分析的基础上,采用沉积物柱状芯样静态释放模拟法定量评估研究区域沉积物—水界面氨氮、溶解性活性磷酸盐营养盐释放潜力,利用微电极非损伤测定技术获得沉积物—水微界面溶解氧(DO)剖面分布及微界面DO消耗和扩散特征.结果表明:东巢湖近城市湖湾沉积物氮、磷污染物蓄积量较高,受TN、TP污染程度较重.沉积物内源氨氮、磷酸盐释放明显,平均释放速率分别达到32.44 mg/(m²·d)和1.25mg/(m²·d),区域内沉积物已成为水柱中氮、磷营养盐的污染源.研究区域上覆水体处于好氧状态,沉积物—水微界面平均DO穿透深度(OPD)达到5.3 mm,平均DO扩散通量为4.56 mmol/(m²·d),表现出良好的DO扩散能力.沉积物内源氨氮和磷酸盐释放能力与表层沉积物TN/TP物质含量及沉积物—水微界面DO穿透深度有关,在沉积物氮、磷污染较重的情况下,DO穿透深度越低越有利于氮、磷污染物从沉积物向上覆水体释放.     

温度对河蚬(Corbicula fluminea)氮、磷排泄影响的初步研究

在不同温度下,对太湖河蚬进行了室内短期氮、磷释放模拟实验.结果表明,温度对河蚬(Corbicula fluminea)不同形态氮、磷的排泄都有重要的影响.总磷(TP)、总氮(TN)、总溶解性氮(TDN)、总溶解性磷(TDP)和正磷酸盐(PO3-4-P)排泄率随温度的升高都显著升高,而亚硝态氮(NO-2-N)排泄率先升高后下降.铵态氮(NH+4-N)排泄率在5和15℃间变化不显著,温度对硝态氮(NO-3-N)排泄率有影响但不显著.同时实验发现河蚬为排氨动物,NH+4-N排泄占TN排泄的50.78%~100%,TDN排泄占TN排泄的89.14%~100%,而NO-3-N、NO-2-N虽都有检出,但所占比例相对较小.在河蚬磷排泄中,TDP占TP比例范围为83.01%~100%,PO3-4-P在36.60%~96.59%之间,且所占比例都有随温度升高而增加的趋势.同时对排泄率与干重和温度之间的关系进行了回归分析,发现不同氮、磷排泄率(NO-3-N和NO-2-N除外)与温度和干重的关系均符合方程R(X)=a Wb·ec T+d,决定系数R2都在0.967以上.     

洱海流域入湖河口湿地沉积物氮、磷、有机质分布及污染风险评价

以云南洱海罗时江河口湿地为典型对象,利用柱状底泥分层采样器采集罗时江河口湿地表层(0~10 cm)沉积物样品,研究分析总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、有机质(OM)的空间分布特征,并对沉积物进行污染风险评价.结果表明:表层沉积物TP含量在0.04~1.28 g/kg之间,空间分布特征为:Ⅱ区Ⅰ区,水道Ⅰ水道Ⅱ;TN含量在0.33~2.96 g/kg之间,空间分布特征为:Ⅰ区Ⅱ区,水道Ⅰ水道Ⅱ,OM含量在32.43~233.03 g/kg之间,空间分布表现为Ⅰ区Ⅱ区,水道Ⅰ水道Ⅱ.结合综合污染指数与有机指数评价法可知,罗时江河口湿地表层沉积物氮、磷污染:Ⅰ区和水道Ⅰ属于中度污染,Ⅱ区和水道Ⅱ属于轻度污染;有机污染:水道Ⅰ和水道Ⅱ属于重度污染,Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区属于中度污染.罗时江河口湿地表层沉积物空间分布受外源污染物、养殖活动和湿地水生植物的影响,氮、磷外源输入以水道Ⅰ为主,有机质输入以水道Ⅱ为主.     

流域场镇发展下三峡水库典型入库河流水体碳、氮、磷时空特征及富营养化评价

流域场镇式发展是三峡地区城乡统筹发展的重要模式,通常形成河流两岸串珠状的场镇分布格局,这种人类活动的点状聚集特征对入库河流水环境的综合影响并不清楚.选择三峡库区流域场镇发展特征明显的黑水滩河及主要支流为研究对象,于2014年9月至2015年6月期间对流域内分布的主要场镇前后的水体进行碳、氮、磷浓度的监测分析,探讨场镇分布对流域水体生源要素时空格局的影响.研究结果表明,黑水滩河干、支流水体总有机碳(TOC)和溶解性有机碳浓度为4.5～39.2和3.2～31.4mg/L,总氮(TN)、铵态氮和硝态氮浓度范围为1.12～6.96、0.87～5.00和0.073～0.881mg/L,总磷(TP)、溶解性总磷和正磷酸盐浓度范围为0.078～0.454、0.049～0.310和0.025～0.222mg/L,不同形态的碳、氮、磷含量变化幅度较大;黑水滩河干、支流流经不同场镇区前后,水体各形态碳、氮、磷浓度均不同程度增加(其中TOC、TN和TP的增幅范围分别为4.7%～61.3%、26.7%～144.7%和12.8%～50.7%),而在无场镇分布的干流河段,水体碳浓度变化不大,氮、磷浓度明显降低,表...     

洪泽湖出入河流及湖体氮、磷浓度时空变化(2010—2019年)

基于2010-2019年洪泽湖湖体水质逐月监测数据,筛选出影响湖体水质的主要污染物指标为总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）;选取洪泽湖周边25条主要入湖河流和2条出湖河流在2019年10月2020年9月的监测数据,探讨河流外源性输入对不同湖体区域氮磷的影响及其水期变化规律.结果发现：①湖体TN、TP浓度长期居高不下,年均浓度范围分别在1.39~1.86、0.080~0.171 mg/L波动.主要入湖河流TN、TP时空平均浓度（1.92~5.70和0.114~0.181 mg/L）,均高于同区域湖体（1.15~1.46和0.088~0.101 mg/L）,其中北部入湖河流肖河、马化河和五河与临近湖区TN、TP浓度呈现显著正相关,是影响北部湖体TN、TP浓度的主要河流;南部入湖河流维桥河和高桥河是临近湖区非极端降雨期TN、TP的主要来源.②调水工程对湖体及入湖河流TN、TP浓度分布影响显著,调水期湖体沿调水方向TP浓度逐渐上升,TN浓度则呈现先降后升的趋势,南部入湖河流维桥河和高桥河TN浓度达到水期峰值,分别为10.69和9.90 mg/L.③极端降雨期入湖河流的TN、TP浓度显著高于其它水期,由于湖体对TN、TP的富集作用不同,TP浓度呈现中间高,四周低,而TN浓度呈现沿洪水流向逐渐降低的规律.     

Statistical downscaling of reference evapotranspiration in Haihe River Basin: applicability assessment and application to future projection

Future changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) are of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts on hydrology and water resources systems of more pronounced climate change. This study assesses the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in projecting ET₀, and investigates the seasonal and spatial patterns of future ET₀ based on general circulation models (GCMs) across the Haihe River Basin. The results indicate that SDSM can downscale ET₀ well in term of different basin-averaged measures for the HadCM3 and CGCM3 GCMs. HadCM3 has a much superior capability in capturing inter-annual variability compared to CGCM3 and thus is chosen as the sole model to assess the changes in future ET₀. There are three homogeneous sub-regions of the Haihe River Basin: Northwest, Northeast and Southeast. Change points are detected at around 2050 and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The Northwest is revealed to have a slight to strong increase in ET₀, while the Northeast and the Southeast tend to experience a pattern change from decrease to increase in ET₀.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR J. Thompson     

珠江流域东江（东莞段）溶解氧时空变化及其影响因素

溶解氧是水生生态系统健康程度的重要度量指标,研究溶解氧时空变化及其影响因素对揭示河流溶解氧动态过程和理解水体生物地球化学循环具有重要意义.当前,许多河流均存在溶解氧偏低问题,严重影响河流水质.基于此,收集了珠江流域东江(东莞段)上游桥头、中游樟村和下游沙田泗盛3个水质监测站的实测资料,采用折线图和箱型图分析溶解氧在月、季节和年际时间尺度下的变化规律及其空间差异;采用最大信息系数、交叉小波转换和多元线性回归3种方法解析溶解氧时空变化的影响因素.结果表明:空间分布上,溶解氧浓度从上游到下游逐渐降低,低值区分布在入海口处的沙田泗盛站,多年平均溶解氧浓度仅为3.11 mg/L.时间变化上,2011-2019年溶解氧主要在11.64个月的周期下循环变化.溶解氧展现出明显的季节性.3个站点丰水期溶解氧浓度比枯水期分别降低1.68、2.03和1.77 mg/L.驱动因素上,溶解氧的时空变化受到多个因素的综合作用.桥头站和樟村站水质较好,水温是这两个站点溶解氧时空变化的主要影响因素.其主要在8～16个月的周期上调控溶解氧变化,在两个站点分别可以解释溶解氧整体变化的70%和57%.沙田泗盛站受多条支流汇...     

南海北部珠江口与琼东南盆地构造-热模拟研究

珠江口盆地和琼东南盆地位于南海北部的大陆边缘,本文在此地区选取了13条典型剖面,进行了构造沉降史和热史的模拟,初步探讨了其新生代以来的构造-热演化历史.其研究结果表明:珠江口盆地存在两次热流升高过程,分别为始新世(56.5~32 Ma)和渐新世(32~23.3 Ma).琼东南盆地存在三期加热和两期冷却过程,始新世盆地热流缓慢升高,渐新世西部地区热流持续升高,而东部地区热流升高持续至16 Ma,并在5.4 Ma以来存在一期快速沉降,由西向东加热事件逐渐变弱.南海北部陆缘存在多期次裂谷作用、热流升高的特征;"热沉降"阶段也非完全处于热衰减期,晚期也存在热流升高的加热事件,这些都有别于典型的被动大陆边缘盆地的热演化模式.     

Evaluation and hydrologic validation of TMPA satellite precipitation product downstream of the Pearl River Basin,China

With high spatio‐temporal resolution and wide coverage, satellite‐based precipitation products can potentially fill the deficiencies of traditional in situ gauge precipitation observations and provide an alternative data source for ungauged areas. However, due to the relatively poor accuracy and high uncertainty of satellite‐based precipitation products, it remains necessary to assess the quality and applicability of the products for each investigated area. This study evaluated the accuracy and error of the latest Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi‐satellites Precipitation Analysis 3B42‐V7 satellite‐based precipitation product and validated the applicability of the product for the Beijiang and Dongjiang River Basins, downstream of the Pearl River Basin in China. The study first evaluated the accuracy, error, and bias of the 3B42‐V7 product during 1998–2006 at daily and monthly scale via comparison with in situ observations. The study further validated the applicability of the product via hydrologic simulation using the variable infiltration capacity hydrological model for three hydrological stations in the Beijiang River Basin, considering two scenarios: a streamflow simulation with gauge‐calibrated parameters (Scenario I) and a simulation after recalibration with the 3B42‐V7 product (Scenario II). The results revealed that (a) the 3B42‐V7 product produced acceptable accuracy both at the daily scale and high accuracy at the monthly scale while generally tending to overestimate precipitation; (b) the product clearly overestimated the frequency of no rainfall events at the grid cell scale and light rainfall (<1 mm/day) events at the region scale and also overestimated the amount of heavy rain (25–50 mm/day) and hard rain (≥50 mm/day) events; (c) under Scenario I, the 3B42‐V7 product performed poorly at three stations with gauge‐calibrated parameters; under Scenario II, the recalibrated model provided significantly improved performance of streamflow simulation with the 3B42‐V7 product; (d) the variable infiltration capacity model has the ability to reveal the hydrological characteristics of the karst landform in the Beijiang Basin when using the 3B42‐V7 product.     

Quantifying the impact of climate variables on reference evapotranspiration in Pearl River Basin,China

ABSTRACT

The impact of climate variables on monthly reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) is a critical issue in water resources management and irrigation planning. The spatio-temporal contribution of climate variables to ET_o in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China, from 1960 to 2016 were calculated based on sensitivity and relative change of each climatic variable. The results show that annual ET_o total decreased by 1.64% and diminished in magnitude from the southeast to the northwest. Sunshine duration, wind speed and relative humidity decreased by 15.5%, 7.4%, and 4.0%, respectively, while average temperature increased by 4.25%. The ET_o showed a positive sensitivity to all variables except relative humidity, which showed a negative sensitivity. Sunshine duration had the highest contribution of ?4.26%, and the overall decrease in ET_o was mainly caused by the declines in sunshine duration and wind speed, which offset the positive impact of rises in average temperature and reduction in relative humidity.     

南海珠江口盆地钻井BHT温度校正及现今地温场特征

温度是盆地现今地温场研究最重要的基础参数之一,针对钻井井底温度（BHT）一般低于地层真实温度的情况,本文对珠江口盆地16口钻井的BHT数据进行了校正,并根据校正后的温度数据采用最小二乘法新增计算了16个地温梯度及大地热流数据.结合前人发表数据,本文绘制了珠江口盆地最新地温梯度等值线图及大地热流等值线图.除此之外,系统收集整理了盆地钻井大地热流、生热率以及热导率等参数,利用一维热传导方程计算了盆地1～5 km深度处的温度,并绘制了盆地深部温度等值线图.在此基础上,分析了盆地现今地温场特征及其成因,以期为珠江口盆地地球动力学背景研究及油气资源评价与勘探提供地热学参数.     

Abrupt changes in the discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River,China

The abrupt changes in the streamflow and sediment load at nine hydrological stations of the Pearl River basin were systematically analysed by using the simple two‐phase linear regression scheme and the coherency analysis technique. Possible underlying causes were also discussed. Our study results indicated that abrupt changes in the streamflow occurred mainly in the early 1990s. The change points were followed by significant decreasing streamflow. Multiscale abrupt behaviour of the sediment load classified the hydrological stations into two groups: (1) Xiaolongtan, Nanning and Liuzhou; and (2) Qianjiang, Dahuangjiangkou, Wuzhou, Gaoyao, Shijiao and Boluo. The grouped categories implied obvious influences of water reservoirs on the hydrological processes of the Pearl River. On the basis of analysis of the locations and the construction time of the water reservoirs, and also the time when the change points occurred, we figured out different ways the water reservoirs impacted the hydrological processes within the Pearl River basin. As for the hydrological variation along the mainstream of the Pearl River, the water reservoirs have considerable influences on both the streamflow and sediment load variations; however, more influences seemed to be exerted on the sediment load transport. In the North River, the hydrological processes seemed to be influenced mainly by climate changes. In the East River, the hydrological variations tended to be impacted by the water reservoirs. The study results also indicated no fixed modes when we address the influences of water reservoirs on hydrological processes. Drainage area and regulation behaviour of the water reservoirs should be taken into account. The results of this study will be of considerable importance for the effective water resources management of the Pearl River basin under the changing environment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling of water withdrawal for pollutant flushing in the tidal river network,Pearl River Delta,China

Abstract

A one-dimensional water quantity and quality mathematical model was developed to evaluate the effects of joint gate–pump operation in terms of water withdrawal for pollutant flushing. The study was carried out in dry seasons in the Foshan River channel, China. The results indicate that the input of freshwater into the upper and middle reaches of the Foshan River can improve the water quality of the lower reaches. However, the backwater effect due to water diversion in the middle reaches of the river can greatly offset the cleaning processes in the upper reaches of the Foshan River. The results indicate that water quality in the upper Foshan River (Jiebian) may degrade with an increase in the rate of water withdrawal from the middle river when the discharge pumped from the upper Foshan River is less than 10m³/s; optimal water quality improvement is obtained with discharge values of 30 and 20 m³/s, respectively, at the upper and middle reaches of the Foshan River.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Liu, C.-L., Jiang, T., Zhang, Q., Zhu, S. and Li, K., 2012. Modelling of water withdrawal for pollutant flushing in the tidal river network, Pearl River Delta, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 576–590.     

南海北部陆缘珠江口盆地岩石圈热结构

沉积盆地岩石圈热结构特征是岩石圈构造-热演化过程的综合反映和盆地热史恢复的约束条件,对盆地动力学研究和油气资源评价具有重要意义.由于海洋勘探难度大、勘探程度低,相对于大陆地区,边缘海盆地比较缺乏岩石圈热结构方面的研究.本文在收集整理珠江口盆地及邻区大地热流数据的基础上,补充收录了自2003年以来发表的新数据,绘制了研究区最新版的大地热流等值线图;基于中美合作双船地震剖面揭示的深部地壳结构计算了研究区的壳-幔热流、深部温度以及"热"岩石圈厚度.研究表明,珠江口盆地地壳热流介于18.7~28.6 mW·m-2,地幔热流介于36.9~91.4 mW·m-2,壳幔热流比值0.23~0.75;由陆架、陆坡至中央海盆,在地壳热流逐渐减小的情况下地表热流逐渐递增,说明地表热流分布主要受深部热作用控制;盆地"热"岩石圈厚度介于34.0~87.2 km,平均65.5 km,反映出显著拉张减薄的特征.