Preliminary study on assessment of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin based on SWAT modeling

With the Taihu Basin as a study area, using the spatially distributed and mechanism-based SWAT model, preliminary simulations of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin during the period of 1995-2002 has been carried out. The topography, soil, meteorology and land use with industrial point pollution discharge, the loss of agricultural fertilizers, urban sewerage, and livestock drainages were all considered in the boundary conditions of the simulations. The model was calibrated and validated against water quality monitoring data from 2001 to 2002. The results show that the annual total productions of nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) into Lake Taihu are 40000t and 2000t respectively. Nutrient from the Huxi Region is a major resource for Lake Taihu. The non-point source (surface source) pollution is the main form of catchment sources of nutrients into Lake Taihu, occupied TN 53% and TP 56% respectively. TN and TP nutrients from industrial point pollution discharge are 30% and 16%, and sewerage in both forms of point source and non-point source are TN 31 % and TP 47%. Both the loss of agricultural fertilizers and livestock drainages from the catchment should be paid more attention as an important nutrient source. The results also show that SWAT is an effective model for the simulation of temporally and spatially nutrient changes and for the assessment of the trends in a catchment scale.     

Preliminary study on assessment of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin based on SWAT modeling

With the Taihu Basin as a study area, using the spatially distributed and mechanism-based SWAT model, preliminary simulations of nutrient transport in the Taihu Basin during the period of 1995:_2002 has been carried out. The topography, soil, meteorology and land use with industrial point pollution discharge, the loss of agricultural fertilizers, urban sewerage, and livestock drainages were all considered in the boundary conditions of the simulations. The model was calibrated and validated against water quality monitoring data from 2001 to 2002. The results show that the annual total productions of nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) into Lake Taihu are 40000t and 2000t respectively. Nutrient from the Huxi Region is a major resource for Lake Taihu. The non-point source (surface source) pollution is the main form of catchment sources of nutrients into Lake Taihu, occupied TN 53% and TP 56% respectively. TN and TP nutrients from industrial point pollution discharge are 30% and 16%, and sewerage in both forms of point source and non-point source are TN 31% and TP 47%. Both the loss of agricultural fertilizers and livestock drainages from the catchment should be paid more attention as an important nutrient source. The results also show that SWAT is an effective model for the simulation of temporally and spatially nutrient changes and for the assessment of the trends in a catchment scale.     

Time‐varying suspended sediment‐discharge rating curves to estimate climate impacts on fluvial sediment transport

This study presents time‐varying suspended sediment‐discharge rating curves to model suspended‐sediment concentrations (SSCs) under alternative climate scenarios. The proposed models account for hysteresis at multiple time scales, with particular attention given to systematic shifts in sediment transport following large floods (long‐term hysteresis). A series of nested formulations are tested to evaluate the elements embedded in the proposed models in a case study watershed that supplies drinking water to New York City. To maximize available data for model development, a dynamic regression model is used to estimate SSC based on denser records of turbidity, where the parameters of this regression are allowed to vary over time to account for potential changes in the turbidity‐SSC relationship. After validating the proposed rating curves, we compare simulations of SSC among a subset of models in a climate change impact assessment using an ensemble of flow simulations generated using a stochastic weather generator and hydrologic model. We also examine SSC estimates under synthetic floods generated using a peaks‐over‐threshold model. Our results indicate that estimates of extreme SSC under new climate and hydrologic scenarios can vary widely depending on the selected model and may be significantly underestimated if long‐term hysteresis is ignored when simulating impacts under sequences of large storm event. Based on the climate change scenarios explored here, average annual maximum SSC could increase by as much as 2.45 times over historical values.     

Incorporating the LCIA concept into fuzzy risk assessment as a tool for environmental impact assessment

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedural tool for environmental management that identifies, predicts, evaluates and mitigates the environmental impact of development proposals. In the process of EIA, EIA reports, prepared by developers, are expected to delineate the environmental impact, but in practice they usually determine whether the amounts or concentrations of pollutants comply with the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can improve the analysis of environmental impact in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA that takes account of the causal relationships between environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the concept of LCIA into an ERA as an integrated tool for the preparation of EIA reports extends the focus of the reports from the regulatory compliance of the environmental impact, to determine the significance of the environmental impact. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations, because of a lack of sufficient information; therefore, so ERA should be generalized to a fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Therefore, this paper proposes the integration of a LCIA and a FRA as an assessment tool for the preparation of EIA reports, whereby the LCIA clearly identifies the causal linkage for hazard–pathway–receptor–damage and then better explain the significance of the impact; furthermore, a FRA copes with fuzzy and probabilistic situations in the assessment of pollution severity and the estimation of exposure probability. Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated in a case study of the expansion plan for the world’s largest plastics processing factory.     

3D finite-difference simulations of strong ground motions in the Yanhuai area, Beijing, China during the 1720 Shacheng earthquake (Ms 7.0) using a stochastic finite-fault model

Three-dimensional finite-difference (3D-FD) simulations of earthquake wave propagations in the Yanhuai area were performed for the 1720 Shacheng earthquake (M_s 7.0) using a stochastic finite-fault model, running on a parallel supercomputer Hitachi-SR8000 (http://www.lrz-muenchen.de). A stochastic finite-fault model was implemented into the 3D-FD program. The basic idea of the stochastic finite-fault model is that the fault plane can be subdivided into several subfaults (or elements, sources). Radiation from a large earthquake is the sum of contributions from all subfaults with proper time delays, each of which acts as a small independent double-couple point source. Heterogeneity of the fault rupture process was modeled by randomizing the location of initial rupture (hypocenter), slip vectors (slip, rake), and rise-times of subfaults in this study. A 3D velocity model of the Yanhuai area was constructed based on studies that analyzed available geological and geophysical information. A grid increment of 75 m in three directions was used in the 3D-FD simulation, which made it possible to capture the short period information with a resolution as low as 0.5 s in sediment regions. The uncertainties of simulated results caused by the stochastic finite-fault model were studied with a homogeneous 3D model. We found that the effects of the randomness of source on simulated ground motions are only limited in near-fault-region including the surface exposure of the fault and its vicinities, which occupies about 5% of the whole study area. This article presents an integrated approach for simulating the strong ground motions for engineering purpose using the 3D-FD method. Such simulations would be useful for hazard mapping, land using planning, insurance rate assessment, particularly in planning, preparedness, and coordinating emergency response, which must be based on realistic situations induced by concrete (historic or scenario) earthquakes.     

Implication of evaporative loss estimation methods in discharge and water temperature modelling in cool temperate climates

Evaporative flux is a key component of hydrological budgets. Water loss through evapotranspiration reduces volumes available for run‐off. The transition from liquid to water vapour on open water surfaces requires heat. Consequently, evaporation act as a cooling mechanism during summer. Both river discharge and water temperature simulations are thus influenced by the methods used to model evaporation. In this paper, the impact of evapotranspiration estimation methods on simulated discharge is assessed using a semidistributed model on two Canadian watersheds. The impact of evaporation estimation methods on water temperature simulations is also evaluated. Finally, the validity of using the same formulation to simulate both of these processes is verified. Five well‐known evapotranspiration models and five evaporation models with different wind functions were tested. Results show a large disparity (18–22% of mean annual total evapotranspiration) among the evapotranspiration methods, leading to important differences in simulated discharge (3–25% of observed discharge). Larger differences result from evaporation estimation methods with mean annual divergences of 34–48%. This translates into a difference in mean summer water temperature of 1–15%. Results also show that the choice of model parameter has less influence than the choice of evapotranspiration method in discharge simulations. However, the parameter values influence thermal simulations in the same order of magnitude as the choice of evaporation estimation method. Overall, the results of this study suggest that evapotranspiration and open water evaporation should be represented separately in a hydrological modelling framework, especially when water temperature simulations are required.     

A multi-criteria approach to Great Barrier Reef catchment (Queensland, Australia) diffuse-source pollution problem

This paper presents a multi-criteria based tool for assessing the relative impact of diffuse-source pollution to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) from the river basins draining into the GBR lagoon. The assessment integrates biophysical and ecological data of water quality and pollutant concentrations with socio-economic information pertaining to non-point source pollution and (potential) pollutant impact. The tool generates scores for each river basin against four criteria, thus profiling the basins and enabling prioritization of management alternatives between and within basins. The results support policy development for pollution control through community participation, scientific data integration and expert knowledge contributed by people from across the catchment. The results specifically provided support for the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan, released in October 2003. The aim of the plan is to provide a framework for reducing discharge of sediment, nutrient and other diffuse-source loads and (potential) impact of that discharge and for prioritising management actions both between and within river basins.     

Earthquake ground motion modeling of induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field

A physics‐based numerical approach is used to characterize earthquake ground motion due to induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field and to improve empirical ground motion models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. To this end, a large‐scale (20 km × 20 km) heterogeneous 3D seismic wave propagation model for the Groningen area is constructed, based on the significant bulk of available geological, geophysical, geotechnical, and seismological data. Results of physics‐based numerical simulations are validated against the ground motion recordings of the January 8, 2018, M_L 3.4 Zeerijp earthquake. Taking advantage of suitable models of slip time functions at the seismic source and of the detailed geophysical model, the numerical simulations are found to reproduce accurately the observed features of ground motions at epicentral distances less than 10 km, in a broad frequency range, up to about 8 Hz. A sensitivity analysis is also addressed to discuss the impact of 3D underground geological features, the stochastic variability of seismic velocities and the frequency dependence of the quality factor. Amongst others, results point out some key features related to 3D seismic wave propagation, such as the magnitude and distance dependence of site amplification functions, that may be relevant to the improvement of the empirical models for earthquake ground motion prediction.     

Exploring the marine biotic index (AMBI): variations on a theme by Ángel Borja

The results of manipulating the input data to AMBI are explored using various transformations of numerical species abundance (NAMBI), biomass (BAMBI) and production (PAMBI) from a variety of stations on the NE Atlantic shelf at which the pollution/disturbance status is known. There is a close agreement between the proportions of species in the five AMBI ecological groups and a phylum level meta-analysis axis of increasing environmental impact. All AMBI measures provide a better monotonic relationship with the impact axis than do traditional species diversity measures, which show higher diversity at intermediate levels of disturbance. A marginally better relationship with the impact axis of the meta-analysis is achieved by a moderate (square root) transformation of the data. ‘Production’ data (an appropriate combination of abundance and biomass information) provide only a marginal improvement on abundance data, but are ecologically and functionally much more relevant. Severe transformation of the data, culminating in presence/absence, degrades the relationship with the impact axis, but if only simple species lists are available then these may still be useable in making an environmental assessment.     

Modelling exposure of oceanic higher trophic-level consumers to polychlorinated biphenyls: Pollution ‘hotspots’ in relation to mass mortality events of marine mammals

Marine mammals in the past mass mortality events may have been susceptible to infection because their immune systems were suppressed through the bioaccumulation of environmental pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). We compiled mortality event data sets of 33 marine mammal species, and employed a Finely-Advanced Transboundary Environmental model (FATE) to model the exposure of the global fish community to PCB congeners, in order to define critical exposure levels (CELs) of PCBs above which mass mortality events are likely to occur. Our modelling approach enabled us to describe the mass mortality events in the context of exposure of higher-trophic consumers to PCBs and to identify marine pollution ‘hotspots’ such as the Mediterranean Sea and north-western European coasts. We demonstrated that the CELs can be applied to quantify a chemical pollution Planetary Boundary, under which a safe operating space for marine mammals and humanity can exist.     

A method of urban ecological risk assessment: combining the multimedia fugacity model and GIS

Industrial pollution has caused serious human health risk because the pollutants can be accumulated in human body via multi routes in a long term, especially in areas of rapid industrialization. It is of great importance to obtain the pollutants’ information, including the transport routes and spatial distribution in the various environmental media of different sub-regions, to facilitate more accurate risk assessment and more effective risk management in urban ecosystems. In this article, we proposed a research framework of urban ecological risk assessment method, which combines the multimedia fugacity model, the multi-route exposure model, exposure-risk relationships and geographic information system (GIS). An urban ecological risk assessment of a hypothetical region indicates that it is possible and feasible to introduce GIS into the previous method to satisfy the requirements of risk management. The assessment results can be further utilized for industrial pollution emission control.     

Regional changes in groundwater flow patterns and effects on groundwater composition

Wetlands on the Vecht river plain in the Netherlands are threatened by pollution of ground water on the adjacent ridge ‘Het Gooi’. To assess the impact of this pollution, information is needed on the present groundwater flow pattern and hydrochemical processes occurring during flow. In the determination of hydrochemical processes past changes in flow patterns must be taken into consideration.

Over the past 600 years impoldering and groundwater extraction have induced important hydrological changes in the study area. Exercises with a two-dimensional finite difference groundwater model were used to study the effects of these changes on regional groundwater flow patterns. Steady-state simulations along a vertical section were carried out for four different points in time, namely, the 14th century, 1885, 1941 and 1985. Changes in flow patterns are inferred from a comparison of the steady-state simulations. The results indicate that groundwater flow changed from a simple pattern under natural conditions to a complex flow pattern dominated by artificially man-controlled hydraulic heads at present.

The computer simulations are used to estimate the effect of changes in flow patterns on regional groundwater composition. Data on the distribution of chloride and oxygen-18 in ground water provide a verification of the estimated effects and information on the present position of the fresh-brackish groundwater interface in the study area. Isochrones calculated by the model are used to estimate the position of this front where data on water composition are absent. The future displacement of the fresh-brackish groundwater front is inferred from the position of successive isochrones, assuming that the present flow pattern will remain in steady state.

The computer simulations provide a general framework for the determination of hydrochemical processes in future studies addressing the impact of groundwater pollution on wetlands in the river plain.     

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for assessing health-impact risk from air pollution

High concentrations of air pollutants in the ambient environment can result in breathing problems with human communities. Effective assessment of health-impact risk from air pollution is important for supporting decisions of the related detection, prevention, and correction efforts. However, the quality of information available for environmental/health risk assessment is often not satisfactory enough to be presented as deterministic numbers. Stochastic method is one of the methods for tackling those uncertainties, by which uncertain information can be presented as probability distributions. However, if the uncertainties can not be presented as probabilities, they can then be handled through fuzzy membership functions. In this study, an integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling (IFSM) approach is developed for assessing air pollution impacts towards asthma susceptibility. This development is based on Monte Carlo simulation for the fate of SO₂ in the ambient environment, examination of SO₂ concentrations based on the simulation results, quantification of evaluation criteria using fuzzy membership functions, and risk assessment based on the combined fuzzy-stochastic information. The IFSM entails (a) simulation for the fate of pollutants in ambient environment, with the consideration of source/medium uncertainties, (b) formulation of fuzzy air quality management criteria under uncertain human-exposure pathways, exposure dynamics, and SPG-response variations, and (c) integrated risk assessment under complexities of the combined fuzzy/stochastic inputs of contamination level and health effect (i.e., asthma susceptibility). The developed IFSM is applied to a study of regional air quality management. Reasonable results have been generated, which are useful for evaluating health risks from air pollution. They also provide support for regional environmental management and urban planning.     

The ecological requirements of Agapetus fuscipes Curtis (Glossosomatidae), a characteristic species in unimpacted streams

Agapetus fuscipes is a caddisfly that only seems to occur in unimpacted streams and therefore can be a suitable indicator species for natural conditions. The species has decreased in the Netherlands because of human activities which caused organic pollution and hydromorphological degradation. Literature was reviewed to study the autecology and life cycle of A. fuscipes in order to reveal the ecological requirements of this species. By taking Agapetus fuscipes as an example, it is shown that the autecology and life cycle of an indicator species can give important clues for its presence in unimpacted and absence in impacted streams. A. fuscipes is very susceptible to organic pollution and to a lesser degree to discharge dynamics (dropping water level and discharge peaks). The species copes with dynamic discharge events by maintaining a high population density and recolonisation of disturbed habitats from refuges. However, the vulnerability of the species strongly depends on the life stage of the animals (e.g., the ability to migrate, the oxygen demand and the habitat requirements differ between instars). Although several adaptations to dynamic conditions, a high frequency of discharge peaks or a long period of drought can cause the population to decline. Once a population has totally disappeared from a stream it will take the species a long time to recolonise the stream because of its low dispersion capacity. To protect this species stream restoration should focus on water quality (avoid organic pollution and agricultural run off) and on stabilising the discharge by taking care of natural infiltration in the catchment area instead of fast removal of rain water by drainage systems.     

Longitudinal dispersion in vegetated rivers with stochastic flows

Longitudinal dispersion is one of the most important transport processes in fluvial ecosystems. It affects the transport of chemicals, nutrients, seeds, and wood debris along a river. The focus of this work is on the impact of riparian vegetation on the dispersion coefficient. The investigation considers stochastic forcing due to the river discharge randomness and its interplay with vegetation dynamics. A stochastic bio-hydrodynamical model is proposed and the probability distribution of the dispersion coefficient is obtained. The model allows one to elucidate the influence of (i) the vegetation characteristics, (ii) the probabilistic structure of the discharge time series, and (iii) the hydraulic characteristics of the transect. The work demonstrates the high variability of dispersion coefficients and the remarkable impact of riparian vegetation when medium/high discharges flow.     

Improved simulation of river water and groundwater exchange in an alluvial plain using the SWAT model

Hydrological interaction between surface and subsurface water systems has a significant impact on water quality, ecosystems and biogeochemistry cycling of both systems. Distributed models have been developed to simulate this function, but they require detailed spatial inputs and extensive computation time. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is a semi‐distributed model that has been successfully applied around the world. However, it has not been able to simulate the two‐way exchanges between surface water and groundwater. In this study, the SWAT‐landscape unit (LU) model – based on a catena method that routes flow across three LUs (the divide, the hillslope and the valley) – was modified and applied in the floodplain of the Garonne River. The modified model was called SWAT‐LUD. Darcy's equation was applied to simulate groundwater flow. The algorithm for surface water‐level simulation during flooding periods was modified, and the influence of flooding on groundwater levels was added to the model. Chloride was chosen as a conservative tracer to test simulated water exchanges. The simulated water exchange quantity from SWAT‐LUD was compared with the output of a two‐dimensional distributed model, surface–subsurface water exchange model. The results showed that simulated groundwater levels in the LU adjoining the river matched the observed data very well. Additionally, SWAT‐LUD model was able to reflect the actual water exchange between the river and the aquifer. It showed that river water discharge has a significant influence on the surface–groundwater exchanges. The main water flow direction in the river/groundwater interface was from groundwater to river; water that flowed in this direction accounted for 65% of the total exchanged water volume. The water mixing occurs mainly during high hydraulic periods. Flooded water was important for the surface–subsurface water exchange process; it accounted for 69% of total water that flowed from the river to the aquifer. The new module also provides the option of simulating pollution transfer occurring at the river/groundwater interface at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity on Lagrangian statistics for coastal pollution from a major marine fairway

Lagrangian trajectory methods are often applied as deterministic transport models, where transport is due strictly to advection without taking into account stochastic elements of particle dispersion, which raises questions about validity of the model results. The present work investigates the impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity for a case study of coastal pollution in the Gulf of Finland, where the pollutants are assumed to originate from a major fairway and are transported to the coast by surface currents. Lagrangian trajectories are calculated using the TRACMASS model from velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre circulation model for 1982 to 2001. Three cases are investigated: (1) trajectory calculation without eddy diffusivity, (2) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a constant diffusion coefficient and (3) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a time- and space-variable diffusion coefficient. It is found that the eddy diffusivity effect increases the spreading rate of initially closely packed trajectories and the number of trajectories that eventually reach the coast. The pattern of most frequently hit coastal sections, the probability of hit to each such section and the time the pollution spends offshore are virtually invariant with respect to inclusion of eddy diffusivity.     

A statistical assessment on the stochastic relationship between biomarker concentrations and environmental exposures

Biological monitoring has gradually developed into a powerful tool in the identification and quantification of exposures to occupational and/or environmental hazards in environmental and occupational health studies. Aggregate individual exposure to pollutants and evidence for exploring dose-response relationship in the human bodies can be assessed through biomarker measurements. The existence of inter-individual differences among a study population, however, often hampers the relationship assessment between exposure and the biomarker. In this paper, a statistical random effects model identified from a simplified one-compartment pharmacokinetic model is applied to establish the dynamic relationship between a biomarker and its corresponding external exposure. This model avoids the complex parameter estimation problem encountered using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, and incorporates inter-individual variations often ignored in the usual regression approach. In addition, the relevant parameters for the generic kinetic process can be estimated directly. As a guideline for preliminary sampling strategy, tables of required sample sizes and the number of repeated measurements to achieve the desired statistical power and test efficiency are given. The currently established biological exposure indices (BEIs) for benzene and methyl chloroform are employed to illustrate the impact of inter- individual variations on the percentages of protection for workers exposed to the threshold limit value (TLV) of the corresponding chemical.This research was partially supported by the Environmental Protection Agency of Taiwan (Contract No. EPA-88-E102–03–003).     

Atmospheric potential gradients and point discharge currents as a sensor of level of pollution

The measurement and monitoring of atmospheric pollutants is an important aspect of pollution studies. A novel method of assessment of the level of pollution in the atmosphere is conceived using point discharge and potential gradients. The present paper is an attempt to show that measurement of the point discharge current (PDC) and potential gradient (PG) can be used to provide information regarding the nature of charges and level of pollution in the atmosphere. The measurement of the PDC and PG in different localities is presented and discussed.