Decadal-Scale Climate and Ecosystem Interactions in the North Pacific Ocean

Decadal-scale climate variations in the Pacific Ocean wield a strong influence on the oceanic ecosystem. Two dominant patterns of large-scale SST variability and one dominant pattern of large-scale thermocline variability can be explained as a forced oceanic response to large-scale changes in the Aleutian Low. The physical mechanisms that generate this decadal variability are still unclear, but stochastic atmospheric forcing of the ocean combined with atmospheric teleconnections from the tropics to the midlatitudes and some weak ocean-atmosphere feedbacks processes are the most plausible explanation. These observed physical variations organize the oceanic ecosystem response through large-scale basin-wide forcings that exert distinct local influences through many different processes. The regional ecosystem impacts of these local processes are discussed for the Tropical Pacific, the Central North Pacific, the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension, the Bering Sea, the Gulf of Alaska, and the California Current System regions in the context of the observed decadal climate variability. The physical ocean-atmosphere system and the oceanic ecosystem interact through many different processes. These include physical forcing of the ecosystem by changes in solar fluxes, ocean temperature, horizontal current advection, vertical mixing and upwelling, freshwater fluxes, and sea ice. These also include oceanic ecosystem forcing of the climate by attenuation of solar energy by phytoplankton absorption and atmospheric aerosol production by phytoplankton DMS fluxes. A more complete understanding of the complicated feedback processes controlling decadal variability, ocean ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling requires a concerted and organized long-term observational and modeling effort. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Comparison of Monsoonal change of water quality parameters between 1983 and 2008 in a tropical estuary in Northeastern India: role of phytoplankton and community metabolism

Ongoing climate change and anthropogenic activities are introducing stressors that affect the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. This paper focuses on the fluvial fluxes and estuarine transport of nutrients from a tropical river (Mahanadi River) in Northeastern India and compares select nutrient and water quality parameters between 1983 and 2008. This estuary acts as a perennial source of CO₂ with a net annual flux to the atmosphere of about 135 tons. The non‐conservative fluxes showed a net annual removal of 650 and 140 tons of phosphorus and nitrogen from the water column, respectively. Negative biogeochemical feedbacks that decreased the availability of N and P in 2008 relative to 1983 levels indicate major changes in biogeochemical responses towards fluvial fluxes of nutrient.     

Climate of the last millennium: a sensitivity study

Seventy-one sensitivity experiments have been performed using a two-dimensional sector-averaged global climate model to assess the potential impact of six different factors on the last millennium climate and in particular on the surface air temperature evolution. Both natural (i.e, solar and volcanism) and anthropogenically-induced (i.e. deforestation, additional greenhouse gases, and tropospheric aerosol burden) climate forcings have been considered.
Comparisons of climate reconstructions with model results indicate that all the investigated forcings are needed to simulate the surface air temperature evolution. Due to uncertainties in historical climate forcings and temperature reconstructions, the relative importance of a particular forcing in the explanation of the recorded temperature variance is largely function of the forcing time series used. Nevertheless, our results indicate that whatever the historical solar and volcanic reconstructions may be, these externally driven natural climate forcings are unable to give climate responses comparable in magnitude and time to the late–20th-century temperature warming while for earlier periods combination of solar and volcanic forcings can explain the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Only the greenhouse gas forcing allows the model to simulate an accelerated warming rate during the last three decades. The best guess simulation (largest similarity with the reconstruction) for the period starting 1850 AD requires however to include anthropogenic sulphate forcing as well as the impact of deforestation to constrain the magnitude of the greenhouse gas twentieth century warming to better fit the observation. On the contrary, prior to 1850 AD mid-latitude land clearance tends to reinforce the Little Ice age in our simulations.     

20世纪太平洋海温变化中人为因子与自然因子贡献的模拟研究

基于中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对20世纪太平洋海温变化的模拟,讨论了自然因子和人为因子对20世纪太平洋海温变化的相对贡献。观测资料表明,20世纪太平洋平均的SST变化主要分为3个时段:20世纪上半叶的增暖,40—70年代的微弱变冷,70年代之后的迅速增暖。20世纪太平洋SST变化的主导模态是全海盆尺度的振荡上升模态,其次为PDO振荡型,在70年代末PDO存在明显的年代际转型。通过全强迫试验、自然强迫试验、控制试验对上述现象进行归因分析,结果表明,人为因子和内部变率都对第一次增暖有贡献,而人类活动(主要是温室气体的增加)是70年代之后太平洋SST迅速增暖的主要原因。分区域来看,在两个增暖时段中,影响黑潮延伸体区SST变化的主要是自然因子和内部变率,影响其它海域SST变化的则主要是人为因子。全强迫试验可以较好的模拟出前两个模态的空间分布及时间序列。在没有人为因子的影响下,PDO成为太平洋海温变化的主导模态,其年代际转变发生在60年代中期,意味着人为因子是全海盆振荡增暖的主导原因,并且它使得年代际转型滞后了10a。因此,自然因子是导致SST年代际转型中的主导因子,人为因子有"调谐"作用。     

Modeling the evolution of the world ocean ice cover in the 20th and 21st centuries

The current state of the simulation of sea ice cover as a component of new-generation global climate models is considered. Results from the model ensemble simulation of the observed world ocean ice cover, including its evolution in the 20th century, are analyzed, and projection of possible changes in the 21st century for three scenarios of anthropogenic forcing of the climate system are described. Unresolved problems and priorities for sea ice modeling are discussed.     

Deep North Atlantic freshening simulated in a coupled climate model

The observed recent freshening trend in the deep North Atlantic and the Labrador Sea is investigated in three forced ensembles and a long control simulations using the HadCM3 coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea-ice climate model. The 40 yr freshening trend during the late half of the 20th century is captured in the all forcings ensemble that applies all major external (natural and anthropogenic) forcing factors. Each ensemble has four members with different initial conditions taking from the control run at a 100 yr interval. No similar freshening trend is found in each of the four corresponding periods of the control simulation. However, there are five large freshening events in a 1640 yr period of the control run, each following a sudden salinity increase. A process analysis revealed that the increase in salinity in the Labrador Sea is closely linked to deep convections while the following freshening trend is accompanied by a period of very weak convective activities.The fact that none of the five large freshening events appears in the four corresponding periods following the initial conditions of the four members of the all forcings ensemble suggest that external forcings may have contributed to triggering the events. Further analyses of two other ensemble simulations (natural forcings only and anthropogenic forcings only) have shown that natural rather than anthropogenic factors are responsible. Based on our model results, we can not attribute the simulated freshening to anthropogenic climate change.     

Atmospheric-induced variability of hydrological and biogeochemical signatures in the NW Alboran Sea. Consequences for the spawning and nursery habitats of European anchovy

The north-western Alboran Sea is a highly dynamic region in which the hydrological processes are mainly controlled by the entrance of the Atlantic Jet (AJ) through the Strait of Gibraltar. The biological patterns of the area are also related to this variability in which atmospheric pressure distributions and wind intensity and direction play major roles. In this work, we studied how changes in atmospheric forcing (from high atmospheric pressure over the Mediterranean to low atmospheric pressure) induced alterations in the physical and biogeochemical environment by re-activating coastal upwelling on the Spanish shore. The nursery area of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the NW Alboran Sea, confirmed to be the very coastal band around Malaga Bay, did not show any drastic change in its biogeochemical characteristics, indicating that this coastal region is somewhat isolated from the rest of the basin. Our data also suggests that anchovy distribution is tightly coupled to the presence of microzooplankton rather than mesozooplankton. Finally, we use detailed physical and biological information to evaluate a hydrological-biogeochemical coupled model with a specific hydrological configuration to represent the Alboran basin. This model is able to reproduce the general circulation patterns in the region forced by the AJ movements only including two variable external forcings; atmospheric pressure over the western Mediterranean and realistic wind fields.     

Recent climate forcing and physical oceanographic changes in Northern Hemisphere regions: A review and comparison of four marine ecosystems

As part of a project comparing the structure and function of four marine ecosystems off Norway and the United States, this paper examines the oceanographic responses to climate forcing, with emphasis on recent changes. The four Northern Hemisphere ecosystems include two in the Pacific Ocean (Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska) and two in the Atlantic Ocean (Georges Bank/Gulf of Maine and the Barents/Norwegian Seas). Air temperatures, wind forcing and heat fluxes over the four regions are compared as well as ocean hydrography and sea-ice conditions where seasonal sea ice is found. The long-term interannual variability in air temperatures, winds and net heat fluxes show strong similarity between adjacent ecosystems and within subregions of an ecosystem, but no significant correlations between Pacific and Atlantic ecosystems and few across the Atlantic. In spite of the lack of correlation between climate forcing and ocean conditions between most of the ecosystems, recent years have seen record or near record highs in air and sea temperatures in all ecosystems. The apparent causes of the warming differ. In the Atlantic, they appear to be due to advection, while in the Pacific temperatures are more closely linked to air-sea heat exchanges. Advection is also responsible for the observed changes in salinity in the Atlantic ecosystems (generally increasing salinity in the Barents and Norwegian Seas and decreasing in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank) while salinity changes in the Gulf of Alaska are largely related to increased local runoff.     

Dynamics of a closed low-parameter compartment model of the global carbon cycle

A closed dynamic compartment model of the global carbon cycle and its modifications with a small number of external parameters, which are constructed on the basis of data on the current and preindustrial carbon fluxes and reserves in reservoirs, are studied. The first possible controlling parameter is the amount of anthropogenic CO₂ emission into the atmosphere. Closure in substance allows a decrease in the dimensionality of dynamic models and yields another variable parameter—the system’s total mass, whose change reflects the level of uncertainty in the knowledge of the amount of reserves. The calibration of unsaturated fluxes in each of the models is based on an algorithm developed earlier for local ecosystems, and the measured differences between the fluxes opposite in sign for several times are used to calculate the coefficients of saturated fluxes. The model’s modifications make it possible to estimate the degree to which the oceanic active layer may be involved in rapid exchange with the atmosphere and to introduce the factor of land use as an additional anthropogenic effect. The time trajectories of carbon reserves in reservoirs are calculated until 2100 under variations in anthropogenic emissions in accordance with the IPCC basic scenarios until 2100 for the basic model and its modifications.     

Environmental controls on food web regimes: A fluvial perspective

Because food web regimes control the biomass of primary producers (e.g., plants or algae), intermediate consumers (e.g., invertebrates), and large top predators (tuna, killer whales), they are of societal as well as academic interest. Some controls over food web regimes may be internal, but many are mediated by conditions or fluxes over large spatial scales. To understand locally observed changes in food webs, we must learn more about how environmental gradients and boundaries affect the fluxes of energy, materials, or organisms through landscapes or seascapes that influence local species interactions. Marine biologists and oceanographers have overcome formidable challenges of fieldwork on the high seas to make remarkable progress towards this goal. In river drainage networks, we have opportunities to address similar questions at smaller spatial scales, in ecosystems with clear physical structure and organization. Despite these advantages, we still have much to learn about linkages between fluxes from watershed landscapes and local food webs in river networks. Longitudinal (downstream) gradients in productivity, disturbance regimes, and habitat structure exert strong effects on the organisms and energy sources of river food webs, but their effects on species interactions are just beginning to be explored. In fluid ecosystems with less obvious physical structure, like the open ocean, discerning features that control the movement of organisms and affect food web dynamics is even more challenging. In both habitats, new sensing, tracing and mapping technologies have revealed how landscape or seascape features (e.g., watershed divides, ocean fronts or circulation cells) channel, contain or concentrate organisms, energy and materials. Field experiments and direct in situ observations of basic natural history, however, remain as vital as ever in interpreting the responses of biota to these features. We need field data that quantify the many spatial and temporal scales of functional relationships that link environments, fluxes and food web interactions to understand how they will respond to intensifying anthropogenic forcing over the coming decades.     

River discharges of water and nutrients to the Mediterranean and Black Sea: Major drivers for ecosystem changes during past and future decades?

Rivers are important sources of freshwater and nutrients for the Mediterranean and Black Sea. We present a reconstruction of the spatial and temporal variability of these inputs since the early 1960s, based on a review of available data on water discharge, nutrient concentrations and climatic parameters. Our compilation indicates that Mediterranean rivers suffer from a significant reduction in freshwater discharge, contrary to rivers of the Black Sea, which do not have clear discharge trends. We estimate this reduction to be at least about 20% between 1960 and 2000. It mainly reflects recent climate change, and dam construction may have reduced discharge even further. A similar decrease can also be expected for the fluxes of dissolved silica (Si), strongly controlled by water discharge and potentially reduced by river damming as well. This contrasts with the fluxes of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in Mediterranean and Black Sea rivers, which were strongly enhanced by anthropogenic sources. Their total inputs to the Mediterranean Sea could have increased by a factor of >5. While N still remained at elevated levels in 2000, P only increased up to the 1980–1990s, and then rapidly dropped down to about the initial values of the 1960s. With respect to the marine primary production that can be supported by the riverine nutrient inputs, Mediterranean and the Black Sea rivers were mostly phosphorus limited during the study period. Their anthropogenic nutrient enrichment could only have had a fertilizing effect before the general decline of the P loads. When also considering Si as a limiting element, which is the case for siliceous primary producers such as diatoms, silica limitation may have become a widespread phenomenon in the Mediterranean rivers since the early 1980s. For the Black Sea rivers, this already started the late 1960s. Gross primary production sustained by rivers (PPR) represents only less than 2% of the gross production (PP) in the Mediterranean, and less than 5% in the Black Sea. Possible ecological impacts of the changing river inputs should therefore be visible only in productive coastal areas, such as the Gulf of Lions, where PPR can reach more than two thirds of PP. Reported ecosystem changes both in the Adriatic Sea and the Black Sea are concomitant with major changes in the reconstructed river inputs. Further work combining modelling and data collection is needed to test whether this may also have been the case for coastal ecosystems at other places in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.     

Nitrogen cycle in the earth climatic system and its modeling

Investigations into the nitrogen cycle in the climatic system of the earth are reviewed with special emphasis on the biospheric nitrogen cycle. Approaches to modeling the biogeochemical nitrogen turnover are described. Excluding the nitrogen cycle from consideration when probable consequences of climate change are analyzed can lead to inaccurate estimates of the ecosystem response, in particular, for regions where mineral compounds of soil nitrogen are a limiting factor for the development of vegetation cover. Numerical experiments with climatic models point to a substantial influence of the nitrogen turnover on the feedback between climatic characteristics and the carbon cycle. Models of the combined dynamics of carbon and nitrogen make it possible to obtain realistic estimates of present-day resources and fluxes of these elements in ecosystems, as well as to estimate their changes during possible climatic changes.     

Influence of volcanic activity on climate change in the past several centuries: Assessments with a climate model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is supplemented by a scheme which takes into account the volcanic forcing of climate. With this model, ensemble experiments have been conducted for the 1600s–1900s, in which, along with the volcanic forcing, the anthropogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols and the natural forcing due to variations in solar irradiance were taken into account. The model realistically reproduces the annual mean response of surface air temperature and precipitation to major eruptions both globally and regionally. In particular, the decreases in the annual mean global temperature T _g in the IAP RAS CM after the largest eruptions in the latter half of the 20th century, the Mt. Agung (1963), El Chichon (1982), and Mt. Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions, are 0.28, 0.27, and 0.46 K, respectively, in agreement with estimates from observational data. Moreover, in the IAP RAS CM, the volcanic eruptions result in a general precipitation decrease, especially over land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The seasonal distribution of the response shows good agreement with observations for high-latitude eruptions and worse agreement for tropical and subtropical volcanoes. On interdecadal scales, volcanism leads to variations in T _g on the order of 0.1 K. In numerical experiments with anthropogenic and natural forcings, the model reproduces a general change in surface air temperature over the past several centuries. Taking into account the volcanic forcing, along with that due to variations in solar irradiance, the model has partly reproduced the nonmonotonic global warming for the 20th century.     

Interaction of the methane cycle and processes in wetland ecosystems in a climate model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) has been supplemented with a module of soil thermal physics and the methane cycle, which takes into account the response of methane emissions from wetland ecosystems to climate changes. Methane emissions are allowed only from unfrozen top layers of the soil, with an additional constraint in the depth of the simulated layer. All wetland ecosystems are assumed to be water-saturated. The molar amount of the methane oxidized in the atmosphere is added to the simulated atmospheric concentration of CO₂. A control preindustrial experiment and a series of numerical experiments for the 17th–21st centuries were conducted with the model forced by greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols. It is shown that the IAP RAS CM generally reproduces preindustrial and current characteristics of both seasonal thawing/freezing of the soil and the methane cycle. During global warming in the 21st century, the permafrost area is reduced by four million square kilometers. By the end of the 21st century, methane emissions from wetland ecosystems amount to 130–140 Mt CH₄/year for the preindustrial and current period increase to 170–200 MtCH₄/year. In the aggressive anthropogenic forcing scenario A2, the atmospheric methane concentration grows steadily to ≈3900 ppb. In more moderate scenarios A1B and B1, the methane concentration increases until the mid-21st century, reaching ≈2100–2400 ppb, and then decreases. Methane oxidation in air results in a slight additional growth of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Allowance for the interaction between processes in wetland ecosystems and the methane cycle in the IAP RAS CM leads to an additional atmospheric methane increase of 10–20% depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario and the time. The causes of this additional increase are the temperature dependence of integral methane production and the longer duration of a warm period in the soil. However, the resulting enhancement of the instantaneous greenhouse radiative forcing of atmospheric methane and an increase in the mean surface air temperature are small (globally < 0.1 W/m² and 0.05 K, respectively).     

Petroleum hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean Sea: A mass balance

Over three quarters of a million tonnes of oil were estimated to be introduced annually into the Mediterranean Sea from land-based and open-sea discharges. This paper is a critical assessment of data available through 1983 on the distribution of petroleum-derived hydrocarbon residues and the biogeochemical processes controlling the transport and fate of organic contaminants in this regional sea ecosystem. Inputs, outputs and ecosystem partitioning or inventories are computed and a complete mass balance model is proposed. The approach raises several implications with respect to strategies for the sampling and analysis of organic contaminants in ocean ecosystems. The report also provides a basis on which to evaluate the effectiveness of recent discharge regulations in reducing pollution loads in the Mediterranean. The agreement between calculated fluxes, inventories and input time scales demonstrates the usefulness of organic contaminants as markers for the development of global and ocean flux models.     

Long-term dispersion in unsteady skewed free surface flow

An analysis of two-dimensional horizontal plane shear dispersion in steady, periodic, almost-periodic and randomly forced skewed free surface flow is presented. A two-time scale perturbation analysis of the advection-diffusion equation is used to derive the two-dimensional advection-dispersion equation and the horizontal dispersion coefficient tensor. For combinations of steady, periodic and almost-periodic flow, the time dependent dispersion coefficient tensor contains steady terms and periodic terms at frequencies associated with the forcing frequencies and their sums and differences. For combinations of steady, periodic, almost-periodic and stationary random forcings, the expected value dispersion coefficient tensor contains terms associated with the steady forcings and terms associated with the unsteady forcings represented by the spectral density functions of the unsteady forcings. Estimates of the magnitude of the expected value dispersion coefficient tensor are presented for representative estuarine and continental shelf conditions.     

Exergy,ecosystem functioning and efficiency in a coastal lagoon: The role of auxiliary energy

Exergy, as the sum of energy and information contained in a given system due to living organisms, can act as a quality indicator of ecosystems. Here, we investigated the exergy of Marsala Lagoon (Mediterranean Sea), along with microbial (prokaryotic and heterotrophic nanobenthos) biomass, prokaryotic heterotrophic production and extracellular enzymatic activities, and the biochemical composition of sediment organic matter. The aim of the study was to assess the role of auxiliary energy (e.g. hydrodynamic stress) in the ecosystem functioning and efficiency of a ‘detritus sink’ lagoon. Samples were collected at sites characterized by contrasting hydrodynamic and trophic conditions. Exergy transfer through the benthic microbial loop was influenced by two main factors: (1) organic matter bioavailability; and (2) hydrodynamic forcing. At both sites, the values of total exergy were higher in summer than in winter, and the specific exergy decreased from winter to autumn, along with increasing auxiliary energy. Our data indicate that in coastal ‘detritus sink’ systems, auxiliary energy sources can have a crucial role in exergy transfer and ecosystem functioning through modifying the efficiency of transfer to higher trophic levels of the refractory organic detritus, which is otherwise lost by burial in the sediment. As coastal lagoons are often intensively modified by human activities, we conclude that maintenance of the natural hydrodynamic regimes is a key factor in the preservation of the functioning of lagoon ecosystems and of their provision of goods and services to humans.     

Effect of Salinity and Currents on Sea Level Variation Along the Indian Coast: A Numerical Study

The process of upwelling/sinking and associated sea level variations are seen as a response of coastal ocean to pure wind stress forcing. Further,precipitation and monsoonal floods, apart from the marine meteorological parameters, are expected to influence the sea level fluctuations along the coast. This study comprises determining the sea level from the various parameters together with the pure wind stress forcing, which is compared with the observed cycle. However, it is found that there is considerable difference between the computations and observations. This suggests that the sea level is dependent not just on the local forcing alone, but also on the induced background circulation as well. For example, the sea level changes along the east coast of India, particularly the northern region, are more sensitive to freshwater discharge from various rivers joining the Bay of Bengal. This is due to more frequently occurring pre- and postmonsoon cyclonic storms and the associated surges in the Bay of Bengal as compared to the Arabian Sea. Hence the salinity effects are particularly important in the coastal waters off the east coast of India during monsoon months (June-September). For the west coast of India, however, it is expected that the large-scale coastal circulation may play a role in determining sea level changes in addition to other forcings. The salinity effects are negligible along the west coast in the absence of any major river systems that join the Arabian Sea. The local advection currents caused by the offshore directed freshwater discharge from various estuaries joining the coastal bay also seemed to influence the sea level. In order to elucidate the essential dynamics involved and to study the effect of the remote forcing, a three-dimensional baroclinic, nonlinear numerical model is used with appropriate open boundary conditions. The local effect of the current has been incorporated in the west coast model by means of opening a channel at Cochin through which the rainwater is carried away to the model ocean. The low saline plume, cascading from north along the east cost of India, has been incorporated in the east coast model through a proper forcing applied at the northern boundary of the model. With the inclusion of these remote forcings in the models, the disagreement between the simulations and the observations is minimized.     

Effect of Salinity and Currents on Sea Level Variation Along the Indian Coast: A Numerical Study

The process of upwelling/sinking and associated sea level variations are seen as a response of coastal ocean to pure wind stress forcing. Further,precipitation and monsoonal floods, apart from the marine meteorological parameters, are expected to influence the sea level fluctuations along the coast. This study comprises determining the sea level from the various parameters together with the pure wind stress forcing, which is compared with the observed cycle. However, it is found that there is considerable difference between the computations and observations. This suggests that the sea level is dependent not just on the local forcing alone, but also on the induced background circulation as well. For example, the sea level changes along the east coast of India, particularly the northern region, are more sensitive to freshwater discharge from various rivers joining the Bay of Bengal. This is due to more frequently occurring pre- and postmonsoon cyclonic storms and the associated surges in the Bay of Bengal as compared to the Arabian Sea. Hence the salinity effects are particularly important in the coastal waters off the east coast of India during monsoon months (June-September). For the west coast of India, however, it is expected that the large-scale coastal circulation may play a role in determining sea level changes in addition to other forcings. The salinity effects are negligible along the west coast in the absence of any major river systems that join the Arabian Sea. The local advection currents caused by the offshore directed freshwater discharge from various estuaries joining the coastal bay also seemed to influence the sea level. In order to elucidate the essential dynamics involved and to study the effect of the remote forcing, a three-dimensional baroclinic, nonlinear numerical model is used with appropriate open boundary conditions. The local effect of the current has been incorporated in the west coast model by means of opening a channel at Cochin through which the rainwater is carried away to the model ocean. The low saline plume, cascading from north along the east cost of India, has been incorporated in the east coast model through a proper forcing applied at the northern boundary of the model. With the inclusion of these remote forcings in the models, the disagreement between the simulations and the observations is minimized.     

Correspondence between the distribution of hydrodynamic time parameters and the distribution of biological and chemical variables in a semi-enclosed coral reef lagoon

Hydrodynamic modeling can be used to spatially characterize water renewal rates in coastal ecosystems. Using a hydrodynamic model implemented over the semi-enclosed Southwest coral lagoon of New Caledonia, a recent study computed the flushing lag as the minimum time required for a particle coming from outside the lagoon (open ocean) to reach a specific station [Jouon, A., Douillet, P., Ouillon, S., Fraunié, P., 2006. Calculations of hydrodynamic time parameters in a semi-opened coastal zone using a 3D hydrodynamic model. Continental Shelf Research 26, 1395–1415]. Local e-flushing time was calculated as the time requested to reach a local grid mesh concentration of 1/e from the precedent step. Here we present an attempt to connect physical forcing to biogeochemical functioning of this coastal ecosystem. An array of stations, located in the lagoonal channel as well as in several bays under anthropogenic influence, was sampled during three cruises. We then tested the statistical relationships between the distribution of flushing indices and those of biological and chemical variables. Among the variables tested, silicate, chlorophyll a and bacterial biomass production present the highest correlations with flushing indices. Correlations are higher with local e-flushing times than with flushing lags or the sum of these two indices. In the bays, these variables often deviate from the relationships determined in the main lagoon channel. In the three bays receiving significant riverine inputs, silicate is well above the regression line, whereas data from the bay receiving almost insignificant freshwater inputs generally fit the lagoon channel regressions. Moreover, in the three bays receiving important urban and industrial effluents, chlorophyll a and bacterial production of biomass generally display values exceeding the lagoon channel regression trends whereas in the bay under moderate anthropogenic influence values follow the regressions obtained in the lagoon channel. The South West lagoon of New Caledonia can hence be viewed as a coastal mesotrophic ecosystem that is flushed by oligotrophic oceanic waters which subsequently replace the lagoonal waters with water considerably impoverished in resources for microbial growth. This flushing was high enough during the periods of study to influence the distribution of phytoplankton biomass, bacterial production of biomass and silicate concentrations in the lagoon channel as well as in some of the bay areas.