Correlation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation in South‐east Asia and the Pacific region

The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events versus precipitation anomalies, and the response of seasonal precipitation to El Niño and La Niña events were investigated for 30 basins that represent a range of climatic types throughout South‐east Asia and the Pacific region. The teleconnection between ENSO and the hydroclimate is tested using both parametric and non‐parametric approaches, and the lag correlations between precipitation anomalies versus the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) several months earlier, as well as the coherence between SOI and precipitation anomalies are estimated. The analysis shows that dry conditions tend to be associated with El Niño in the southern zone, and part of the middle zone in the study area. The link between precipitation anomalies and ENSO is statistically significant in the southern zone and part of the middle zone of the study area, but significant correlation was not observed in the northern zone. Patterns of precipitation response may differ widely among basins, and even the response of a given river basin to individual ENSO events also may be changeable. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with the El Niño–southern oscillation

The plausible long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) are investigated by using non‐parametric techniques. It is concluded that a greater number of decreasing trends are observed than are expected to occur by chance. Geographically, the decreasing trend was concentrated in most parts of China, including the Songliao River, Hai River, Huai River, Yellow River, Zhujiang River, and southern part of the Yangtze River basins, whereas an increasing trend appeared primarily in the western and middle parts of China, mainly including the Inland River basin, and the northern part of the Yangtze River basins. Monthly mean precipitation for the summer and early autumn months generally decreased, with the greatest decrease occurring in August. The precipitation in spring from January to April and later autumn, including September and October, tended to increase. The teleconnection between precipitation and ENSO has been investigated by using the non‐parametric Kendall's τ. The correlation coefficients between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation show the areas with positive or negative associations. Approximately 20% of the stations exhibit statistically significant correlations between SOI and precipitation, of which 70% show a negative correlation, with most of them appearing in southeast China and several appearing in northwest and northeast China. Similar regional patterns are also observed when the precipitation records are further subdivided into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. Statistical tests for the three kinds of time series were carried out using the non‐parametric Wilcoxon rank‐sum test, and it is noted that the stations with significant differences in precipitation averages are mainly marked in the Yellow River basin and south China. The frequencies of below‐ and above‐average precipitation that occurred during the El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated as well. The result shows that greater precipitation may be associated with El Niño episodes in south China, but drought may easily occur during El Niño episodes in the Yellow River basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater and surface water connectivity within the recharge area of Guarani aquifer system during El Niño 2014–2016

Recharge areas of the Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate variability; therefore, the understanding of infiltration mechanisms for aquifer recharge and surface run‐off generation represent a relevant issue for water resources management in the southeastern portion of the Brazilian territory, particularly in the Jacaré‐Pepira River watershed. The main purpose of this study is to understand the interactions between precipitation, surface water, and groundwater using stable isotopes during the strong 2014–2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. The large variation in the isotopic composition of precipitation (from ?9.26‰ to +0.02‰ for δ¹⁸O and from ?63.3‰ to +17.6‰ for δ²H), mainly associated with regional climatic features, was not reflected in the isotopic composition of surface water (from ?7.84‰ to ?5.83‰ for δ¹⁸O and from ?49.7‰ to +33.6‰ for δ²H), mainly due to the monthly sampling frequency, and groundwater (from ?7.04‰ to ?7.76‰ for δ¹⁸O and from ?49.5‰ to ?44.7‰ for δ²H), which exhibited less variation throughout the year. However, variations in deuterium excess (d‐excess) in groundwater and surface water suggest the occurrence of strong secondary evaporation during the infiltration process, corresponding with groundwater level recovery. Similar isotopic composition in groundwater and surface water, as well as the same temporal variations in d‐excess and line‐conditioned excess denote the strong connectivity between these two reservoirs during baseflow recession periods. Isotopic mass balance modelling and hydrograph separation estimate that the groundwater contribution varied between 70% and 80%, however, during peak flows, the isotopic mass balance tends to overestimate the groundwater contribution when compared with the other hydrograph separation methods. Our findings indicate that the application of isotopic mass balance methods for ungauged rivers draining large groundwater reservoirs, such as the GAS outcrop, could provide a powerful tool for hydrological studies in the future, helping in the identification of flow contributions to river discharge draining these areas.     

Multi‐decadal variability of drought risk,eastern Australia

A number of previous studies have identified changes in the climate occurring on decadal to multi‐decadal time‐scales. Recent studies also have revealed multi‐decadal variability in the modulation of the magnitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on rainfall and stream flow in Australia and other areas. This study investigates multi‐decadal variability of drought risk by analysing the performance of a water storage reservoir in New South Wales, Australia, during different climate epochs defined using the Inter‐decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The performance of the reservoir is also analysed under three adaptive management techniques and these are compared with the reservoir performance using the current ‘reactive’ management practices. The results indicate that IPO modulation of both the magnitude and frequency of ENSO events has the effect of reducing and elevating drought risk on multi‐decadal time‐scales. The results also confirm that adaptive reservoir management techniques, based on ENSO forecasts, can improve drought security and become significantly more important during dry climate epochs. These results have marked implications for improving drought security for water storage reservoirs. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.