Unmasking geographic polarization and clustering: A micro-scalar analysis of partisan voting behavior

“Geographic polarization”, the spatial concentration of “like” voting behavior, is a phenomenon closely related to “partisan polarization”, the intensification of diametrically ideological positions, is understudied, and is critical to the understanding of current American electoral behavior. To date, few studies have examined geographic polarization, and those that do have done so at the scales of regions, states, and counties. However, local influences operating within areas smaller than counties influence voting behavior and can produce geographic polarization. To address these scalar and methodological shortcomings, this research focuses on the smallest political units, precincts, using a case study of the Greater Cincinnati Metropolitan Area. Presidential election data from 1976 through 2008 were collected by precincts, analyzed using spatial statistics, and mapped to examine evolving geographic polarization over this 32-year period. The results measured at the precinct-scale, suggest an increased concentration of partisan behavior and emphasize a local residential spatial pattern of geographic polarization.     

The Partisan Geographies of Sincere Crossover Voting Behavior: Evidence from North Carolina

A great deal of interdisciplinary literature suggests that although the general motivation to vote is complex, it can be partially explained by a multitude of psychological and contextual factors, including local geographic patterns. I extend this observation to one particular type of voting behavior: sincere crossover voting, or voting for a candidate outside of one's own political affiliation, in a general election. Using a replicable methodological approach that incorporates partisan spatial segregation and exposure as predictors into statistical models of crossover voting behavior for a selected U.S. election, I produce evidence to suggest that the spatial arrangement of partisans influences crossover behavior in the study area, although not uniformly for members of the two major American political parties.     

A Sociodemographic and Partisan Analysis of Voting in Three Anti-Gay Rights Referenda in Oregon

Since 1988, three separate anti-gay rights referenda have been placed on the ballot in the state of Oregon. While in 1988 Oregon voters passed the first measure (subsequently found unconstitutional), they rejected similar referenda in 1992 and 1994. This paper examines the electoral geography of these three referenda both cartographically and quantitatively. It finds patterns of support for the referenda were closely associated with voting patterns for the Republican Party in gubernatorial and presidential elections, and with sociodemographic indicators reflective of traditionalist areas.     

A Sociodemographic and Partisan Analysis of Voting in Three Anti-Gay Rights Referenda in Oregon

Since 1988, three separate anti-gay rights referenda have been placed on the ballot in the state of Oregon. While in 1988 Oregon voters passed the first measure (subsequently found unconstitutional), they rejected similar referenda in 1992 and 1994. This paper examines the electoral geography of these three referenda both cartographically and quantitatively. It finds patterns of support for the referenda were closely associated with voting patterns for the Republican Party in gubernatorial and presidential elections, and with sociodemographic indicators reflective of traditionalist areas.     

Who Supported George McGovern?

Abstract

The geographic pattern of support for George McGovern in the face of his decisive defeat in the 1972 presidential election reveals a striking association with the social groups most disaffected from the Nixon Administration. A mixture of Blacks, Spanish-speaking Americans, Indians, laborers in primary production activities, campus reformers, and most Massachusetts voters stand out on the map of counties for McGovern.     

The Changing Electoral Landscape of the Western United States

The Western periphery constitutes one of the primary electoral sections of the United States in presidential history. The Western periphery, although at times volatile, emerged as a Republican stronghold beginning with Dwight Eisenhower's regional electoral sweeps in the 1950s. This electoral epoch of Republican popularity in the West has been referred to as the new Western normal vote. Despite long-sustained presidential successes, since the 1988 presidential election, Democratic presidential candidates have been able to win certain states in the Republican-dominated region. This research examines the historical dynamics of Republican support in the West by identifying shifts in voting behavior between past and present epochs. We attempt to explain recent changes by exploring the historical character of the West, its demographic dynamics, and the recent turbulence within the Republican Party. County-level election returns from 1952 to 2016 are used, along with traditional and folded T-mode factor analysis, spatial regression modeling, and cartographic analysis. We conclude that the region's normal vote is deteriorating, a new electoral pattern is emerging, and these developments correspond with increasing volatility within the Republican Party.     

Partisan Shifts in Presidential and Gubernatorial Elections in Alabama, 1932–1994*

Although the Republican Party has been competitive in presidential elections in the South for nearly three decades, it has only recently become a force in southern state and local elections. In Alabama, the GOP has dominated presidential voting since 1964, but has only become competitive during the past decade in gubernatorial elections. Why did the GOP first experience success in Alabama in presidential elections 30 years ago, but only recently become competitive in gubernatorial elections? This paper addresses this question using a county-level analysis of both presidential and gubernatorial election returns. It concludes that George Wallace's long political career is the dominant reason for the lag in GOP success in gubernatorial elections.     

Racial and Social Diversity and U.S. Presidential Election Regions

This article examines political regionalism in presidential elections from 1892 to 2000 by analyzing the percentage of the popular vote received by Democratic candidates for president using statistical methods and spatial analysis. The results indicate three long‐term and stable political regions in presidential elections and a history of spatially dependent voting. The article then proposes four fluid political regions based on social diversity and recent political behavior and integrates the role of the Electoral College. This provides a framework in which political geography can integrate political regionalism, racial and social diversity, and the electoral vote in studying presidential elections.     

Racial and Social Diversity and U.S. Presidential Election Regions

Abstract

This article examines political regionalism in presidential elections from 1892 to 2000 by analyzing the percentage of the popular vote received by Democratic candidates for president using statistical methods and spatial analysis. The results indicate three long-term and stable political regions in presidential elections and a history of spatially dependent voting. The article then proposes four fluid political regions based on social diversity and recent political behavior and integrates the role of the Electoral College. This provides a framework in which political geography can integrate political regionalism, racial and social diversity, and the electoral vote in studying presidential elections.     

SOCIAL RELATIONS AND GEOGRAPHIC PATTERNS OF URBAN ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR

This study describes and explains geographic patterns of support for basic dimensions of urban electoral behavior. Sixty-two ballots reduce to two major electoral dimensions, one partisan, one issue-oriented, which have very strong geographic identity. Findings indicate that partisan responses are governed by position in both the sphere of production and sphere of consumption. Issue politics, on the other hand, are affected most strongly by position in the sphere of production even though they often include what appear to be consumption-oriented ballots. Location within the metropolitan region is implicated in the ways consumption and production relations are joined within individuals and in the political cultures of the central city and suburbs.     

The Dunedin Mayoral Election

In an electoral upset in 1995 Dunedin elected its first woman and first Sikh mayor. This paper argues that the symbolic discourse of the mayoral election confronted the Dunedin electorate with the question of ‘fairness’ or equity in the city. Turner's victory signalled the symbolic rejection by a plurality of voters of the ruling neo-liberal political economy of Dunedin. In the same election the incumbent council, in a political reproduction of the ruling order, was returned. The paper explores this contradiction. It concludes that Dunedin's struggle for a new ruling political alliance necessary to combat a stagnant city economy has just begun.     

The effects of local campaign spending on the geography of the flow‐of‐the‐vote at the 1991 New South Wales state election

There is a tendency to assume that election campaigning at the local electorate level has little or no impact on voters subject to the influence of highly centralised campaigns and an increasingly nationalised media. However, as applied to the flow‐of‐the‐vote, this study concludes that local campaign spending has real consequences for vote shifts. For the 1991 New South Wales state election, it is established that any major commitment to local electorate spending by one of the major parties relative to the other increases flows to that party and reduces flows from it. However, incumbency of individual seats as such does not appear to have any significant effect. There is a strong suggestion that, for this election, the Liberal‐National Coalition in government was at a distinct disadvantage compared with the Labor Party in opposition, the spending of the former having a much reduced impact on retaining or attracting votes compared with spending by Labor.     

THE DECLINE OF PARTY VOTING: A GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 1978 MASSACHUSETTS ELECTION

A factor analysis of the 1978 Massachusetts election is undertaken to investigate whether the alleged decline of political parties in the United States can be distinguished at the state scale. Four factors are identified, two of which relate to the voting patterns of state-wide candidates. The main factor is easily seen to represent a “party voting”pattern and the fourth factor suggests a nonparty pattern of support associated with the Democratic candidate for governor, Edward King. It is suggested that this separation of the voting pattern for Democratic candidates may possibly reflect party decomposition in Massachusetts.     

Twenty-Six-Year Cyclical Distribution Of Drought And Flood In CearÁ, Brazil

A factor analysis of the 1978 Massachusetts election is undertaken to investigate whether the alleged decline of political parties in the United States can be distinguished at the state scale. Four factors are identified, two of which relate to the voting patterns of state-wide candidates. The main factor is easily seen to represent a “party voting”pattern and the fourth factor suggests a nonparty pattern of support associated with the Democratic candidate for governor, Edward King. It is suggested that this separation of the voting pattern for Democratic candidates may possibly reflect party decomposition in Massachusetts.     

Social Democracy and Contextual Unemployment: New Zealand Labour in 1990

This paper examines the spatial implications of social-democratic policy transformation. It does so by exploring the political consequences of residential contextual unemployment engendered by a Labour government which had once been dedicated to maintaining full employment. Faced with economic crisis, as Przeworski's model predicts [Capitalism and social democracy, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1985)], New Zealand Labour, beginning in 1984, abandoned its traditional social-democratic statist policies, including the maintenance of full employment, and allowed unemployment to skyrocket under its stewardship. This meant subjecting its supporters to significant contextual cross-pressures, since many residential neighbourhoods became characterised by both high concentrations of Labour partisans, and by those recently unemployed by Labour's new market-liberal policies. Using original survey data merged with New Zealand census data, empirical findings show that residual partisan loyalties and a lack of a major party alternative constrained respondents' partisan disaffection, while channelling their disillusionment into both minor party voting and systemic, governmental criticisms - likely fuelling New Zealand's drive for electoral reform and a new system of proportional representation.     

Women,Politics, Elections,and Citizenship

Abstract

Significantly more women than men are registered voters in the United States, and a higher proportion of women voters actually cast ballots on election day. Yet the 106th Congress (1999-2001) includes only 56 women members, 12% of the total membership of the House and Senate. Likewise, women hold only 22% of the total seats in state legislatures. The purpose of this article is to examine this paradox. It first examines the history of the women's movement in the United States. It then turns to an evaluation of women's progress in gaining elected office. Finally it considers three primary obstacles to women gaining equitable representation: solidarity among women, political culture, and the single-member district system now employed in the United States.     

COUNTIES,STATES, SECTIONS,AND PARTIES IN THE 1984 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

County scale cartographic analysis of Ronald Reagan's reelection landslide of 1984 shows the geographical core of his electoral strength to be in the Interior West, non-ethnic areas of the South, and suburbs across the nation. Examination of spatio-temporal variations using factor analysis at a state scale shows this to be a continuation and reinforcement of recent electoral-geographical cleavages. T-mode factor analysis traces the emergence of a contemporary Conservative Normal Vote during the past several presidential elections and the manifestation of this cleavage in the election of 1984.     

地理背景的不确定性对时空行为模式分析的影响——基于西宁市的实证研究

伴随着城市研究新数据源与方法论的兴起,从时空间整合的角度反思和修正传统的概念与方法,成为时空行为研究重要发展趋势。地理背景作为城市研究的核心变量,其界定方式不确定性如何影响对个体行为作用效应的分析结果,已成为地理学的新方法论问题。在已有文献的基础上,本文基于西宁市的实证研究,尝试验证地理背景不确定性对行为模式分析的影响,并进一步探讨多个行为变量与其相互关系以及时间维度差异。通过比较两类地理背景范围（仅考虑居住地建成环境的地理背景范围、综合考虑居住地与家外活动地建成环境的地理背景范围）,分析对个体行为作用效应结果的差异性。研究发现：如果仅以居住地作为地理背景范围,关注其中建成环境对行为影响时,可能会夸大“家”的作用,而综合考虑居住地与活动地的地理背景范围时,更为接近于“真实”的地理背景,建成环境对家外活动时长、出行时长和活动空间有一定的解释力,且能够捕捉到一些重要的影响因素并修正有悖于常识的结论。同时地理背景不确定性对个体行为作用效应的分析结果影响还表现出较明显的工作日/休息日差异,表明地理背景存在时间维度的不确定性。研究结论在一定程度上揭示了时空行为研究在重新审视传统城市地理学概念、探索日常生活视角的度量方法与研究范式方面的有效性。     

Sustaining the “Societal and Scriptural Fence”: Cultural,Social, and Political Topographies of Same-Sex Marriage in Alabama

In June 2006, voters in Alabama overwhelmingly approved a statewide referendum that added a prohibition against same-sex marriage to the state's constitution. This research examines the Alabama vote by “placing” the politics of sexuality within the state's multifaceted web of cultural and social space. We fuse a traditional electoral geography approach with an overall postpositivist cultural and social perspective, beginning with an assessment of the politics of place by situating Alabama as a place with a long history of battles over the so-called culture wars. The cultural politics of the legislative debate and the geographic distribution of the actual vote are also examined within a socio-demographic context, drawing some comparisons from a similar vote in Georgia in 2004, another state in the American Deep South. Those opposed to same-sex marriage in Alabama made effective use of various social constructions that are deeply embedded within a “moral” geography, situating the state as a fenced-off bastion of “religious traditional values,” a common theme throughout the American South. In this vein, social boundaries and territory were demarcated as a powerful political act in Alabama, a strategy that situated the state as hetero-normatively “in place,” while deeming sexual minorities as “out of place.”     

Governing through mobilities and the expansion of spatial capability of Vietnamese marriage migrant activist women in South Korea

This paper revisits the debate on marriage migration by highlighting the role of governing power and individual response in the process of migration decision‐making and post‐settlement of Vietnamese marriage migrant activist women in South Korea. It contributes to current marriage migration debates by employing the lens of ‘governmobility’ and ‘spatial capability’. The research looks at how female migrant activists maneuver coercion, resistance, and activism, both governed by nation‐state politics, but also actively deciding their fate amidst pressures of the global marriage market. Based on in‐depth interviews with 21 Vietnamese marriage migrant women who have worked in mentoring, counselling and translating for other Vietnamese migrants, our findings demonstrate that marriage migrants are positioned in between two nation‐states whose perspectival focus is on relieving the tensions of their own domestic job and marital markets. At the same time, these women have broken free from the inertia of socio‐familial status quo and state intervention to become self‐governing agents of mobility in various stages of their migration and adaptation. Fueled on by their position as activists, the marriage migrants then expand their spatial capability to place‐making—shifting the notion of freedom from simply taking part in mobility to reshaping their locale.