Indicators of Climate Change for the Russian Federation

Observed climate changes over the Russian Federation (RF) territory are considered. Several indicators based on monthly mean temperature and precipitation station data are used to quantify regional climate changes. Some of these are the components of two aggregated indices of climate change, suggested by Karl et al. (1996): the Climate Extremes Index (CEI) and the Greenhouse Climate Response Index (GCRI). For the RF territory as a whole, and for its western part, the "Russian Permafrost Free (RPF) territory" in particular, changes in surface air temperature are investigated, together with changes in precipitation and drought indices, and also the fraction of the Russian territory experiencing climatic anomalies below and/or above certain specified percentiles. Composite indices CEI-3 and GCRI-3 based on three parameters (air temperature, precipitation and drought indices) are examined, as well as the Climate Anomaly Index (CAI), known in Russia as Bagrov's coefficient of "anomality".It is shown, that over the area of the RPF as a whole, air temperature and the occurrence of drought has increased somewhat during the 20th century, while precipitation has decreased; these changes were non-uniform in space. The linear trend accounts for only a small fraction of the total variability, but the role of climate variations on decadal scales seems more substantial. The CEI, determined as the percentage of the area experiencing extreme anomalies (with a 10% or less frequency of occurrence) of either sign, increased for mean annual temperature, decreased for total precipitation and increased slightly for the occurrence of drought conditions; the aggregated index based on all three of these quantities increased slightly. There was also an increase in the GCRI-3 index, which is indicative of an agreement between the observed climate changes and the changes owing to the greenhouse effect as predicted by climatic models.The observed climate changes are too small to enable us confidently to reject a hypothesis that they are a reflection of the natural variability of climatic parameters within the context of a stationary climate. However, there is no doubt about the reality and importance of the observed changes.     

The Response of Boreal Forest Stands to Recent Climate Change in the North of the European Part of Russia

An attempt is made to identify the response of forest stands to recent climate change in the north of the European part of Russia using the series of Scots pine linear increments. These series are a useful instrument for assessing the spatial variability of internode growth parameters during short (to 30 years) periods. Linear dendrochronological data allow separating climatogenic reactions of organisms from the interannual variability of increments. In other words, this method allows reducing the level of noise which masks the sought dependences.     

Comparison of Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Calculated from High and Low Resolution Climate Change Scenarios: Part II. Accounting for Adaptation and CO2 Direct Effects

We assert that the simulation of fine-scale crop growth processes and agronomic adaptive management using coarse-scale climate change scenarios lower confidence in regional estimates of agronomic adaptive potential. Specifically, we ask: 1) are simulated yield responses tolow-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO₂), significantly different from simulated yield responses tohigh-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO₂)? and 2) does the scale of the soils information, in addition to the scale of the climate change information, affect yields after adaptation? Equilibrium (1 × CO₂ versus 2 × CO₂)climate changes are simulated at two different spatial resolutions in the Great Plains using the CSIRO general circulation model (low resolution) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) RegCM2 regional climate model (high resolution). The EPIC crop model is used to simulate the effects of these climate changes; adaptations in EPIC include earlier planting and switch to longer-season cultivars. Adapted yields (without and with additional carbon dioxide) are compared at the different spatial resolutions. Our findings with respect to question 1 suggest adaptation is more effective in most cases when simulated with a higher resolution climate change than its more generalized low resolution equivalent. We are not persuaded that the use of high resolution climate change information provides insights into the direct effects of higher atmospheric CO₂ levels on crops beyond what can be obtained with low resolution information. However, this last finding may be partly an artifact of the agriculturally benign CSIRO and RegCM2 climate changes. With respect to question 2, we found that high resolution details of soil characteristics are particularly important to include in adaptation simulations in regions typified by soils with poor water holding capacity.     

Projected Climate Change in the Northwestern Arid Regions of China: An Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

The projected temperature and precipitationchange under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China(NWAC) were analyzed using the ensemble of three high-resolution dynamical downscaling simulations: the simulation of the Regional Climate Model version 4.0(Reg CM4) forced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1); the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model(Had GEM3-RA) forced by the Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Had GEM version 2(Had GEM2-AO); and the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model forced by the Norwegian community Earth System Model(Nor ESM1-M). Model validation indicated that the multimodel simulations reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation well. The temperature is projected to increase over NWAC under both the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) in the middle of the 21 st century, but the warming trend is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation shows a significant increasing trend in spring and winter under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; but in summer, precipitation is projected to decrease in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin. The regional averaged temperature and precipitation show increasing trends in the future over NWAC; meanwhile, the large variability of the winter mean temperature and precipitation may induce more extreme cold events and intense snowfall events in these regions in the future.     

Reconstruction of Climate of the Eemian Interglacial Using an Earth System Model. Part 2. The Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Climate Change

In the framework of the study of the Eemian interglacial we consider the role of the Greenland ice sheet in the rise of the mean level of the World Ocean. Its contribution estimated as 2 m confirms the newest estimates based on the model results and on the proxy data analysis. In the beginning of the Eemian interglacial (earlier than 126 thousand years ago) mass lost occurs through the marine margin of the sheet. During the next five millennia, the negative surface mass balance plays the leading role. Taking into account the contribution of Greenland ice sheet, ocean thermal expansion, and the melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps, it is very probable that the West Antarctic ice sheet was the main source of the global sea level growth equal to 6–9 m the compared to the present.     

扎龙湿地气候变化特征分析

气候是影响湿地生态状况最重要的自然因子.本文分析了自1961～2007年研究区域内对湿地生态状况有重要影响的各气候要素变化趋势.结果表明该区域气候变暖趋势明显.20世纪90年代后湿地处于高温、少雨、蒸发量较大的气候背景之下,由此导致湿地水资源严重不足,进而产生生物多样性下降和湿地退化等现象.     

宁夏气候变化特征分析

利用1961－1997年宁夏平罗、永宁、同心、隆德等4个代表性站点37a的月平均气温、降水、最高和最低气温、相对湿度、日照时数等资料，采用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率方法，对1961年以来宁夏气候变化的特征进行了分析。结果表明，过去37a宁夏各地年平均气温及年平均最低气温均有明显的升高趋势，且主要是由于冬季气温的升高所致；最高气温、降水量、相对湿度、日照时数等没有随时间的变化而升高或降低的趋势。     

Comparison of Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Calculated from High and Low Resolution Climate Change Scenarios: Part I. The Uncertainty Due to Spatial Scale

We investigated the effect of two different spatial scales of climate change scenarios on crop yields simulated by the EPIC crop model for corn, soybean, and wheat, in the central Great Plains of the United States. The effect of climate change alone was investigated in Part I. In Part II (Easterling et al., 2001) we considered the effects ofCO₂ fertilization effects and adaptation in addition to climate change. The scenarios were formed from five years of control and 2 ×CO₂ runs of a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM) and the same from an Australian coarse resolution general circulation model (GCM), which provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional model runs. We also investigated the effect of two different spatial resolutions of soil input parameters to the crop models. We found that for corn and soybean in the eastern part of the study area, significantly different mean yield changes were calculated depending on the scenario used. Changes in simulated dryland wheat yields in the western areas were very similar, regardless of the scale of the scenario. The spatial scale of soils had a strong effect on the spatial variance and pattern of yields across the study area, but less effect on the mean aggregated yields. We investigated what aspects of the differences in the scenarios were most important for explaining the different simulated yield responses. For instance, precipitation changes in June were most important for corn and soybean in the eastern CSIRO grid boxes. We establish the spatial scale of climate changescenarios as an important uncertainty for climate change impacts analysis.     

Climate of Russia in the 21st Century. Part 2. Verification of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CMIP3 for projections of future climate changes

Results of simulation of radiation, cloud cover, surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and hydrological regime components for Russia with the help of an ensemble of CMIP3 global climate models is analyzed. Despite a large spread among the models, the CMIP3 AOGCM ensemble simulations of the key characteristics of the observed surface climate agree well with observations, anyway in averaging over areas of vast regions, from watersheds of large rivers to the whole of Russia. These means (ensemble-and area-averaged values) often fall into the range of estimates derived from observations. This suggests the existence of uncertainty in the estimates obtained from simulations as well as from observational data. Comparison of different-generation models demonstrates a gradual improvement of the AOGCM simulation of surface climate characteristics. In general, the averaging over the CMIP3 AOGCM ensemble allows us to state that the ensemble is suitable for estimates of future climate changes.     

阿克苏市气候变化的特征分析

分析了１９５４～１９９７年４４年阿克苏市平均、最高、最低气温３个温度序列,结果表明气候变化呈变暖趋势,以冬季变暖最明显,最低变暖速度远比最主气温快,日较差在缩小。夏半年与冬半年气候变化存在一定差异,气候变暖主要是由于冬半变年变暖所致。     

伊犁河谷气候变化特征分析

用伊宁国家气象观测站1952—2005年的气象资料,分析伊犁河谷54a来的气候变化情况。伊犁河谷气候增暖增湿现象较明显,增温率为0.41℃/10a,特别是冬季气温偏暖明显;降水偏多趋势较明显,增幅为21.2mm/10a。由于气候变暖,伊犁河谷极端天气气候事件发生的频率增加,造成的影响更加严重。     

1961—2015年鄂温克旗气候变化特征分析

利用鄂温克旗1961—2015年的气象观测数据,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验结合滑动t检验方法,对鄂温克旗的气温和降水年序列进行了分析,以揭示鄂温克旗气候变化特征及其突变事实。结果表明:(1)1961年以来,鄂温克旗年平均气温呈波动上升趋势,从20世纪60年代的-2.37℃上升到21世纪初期的-0.59℃;(2)20世纪70、80和90年代,鄂温克旗属于多雨时段,年平均降雨量变化在330.0～360.0mm之间;21世纪初的10a的年平均降水量为281.0mm,气候呈现高温少雨的特征;(3)鄂温克旗年平均气温在1985年后有暖突变,1961—1982年,年平均气温呈下降趋势,自1983年呈增加趋势,尤其1990年以后,气温呈现显著升高的趋势;(4)鄂温克旗年降水量在2000年前后有突变,1978—2000年,年降水量呈现升高的趋势,2000以后年降水量逐渐下降;(5)春季、夏季、秋季、冬季平均气温都有暖突变,突变的时间分别为1985、1995、1987和1982年,春季气温与年气温变化趋势一致;四季中只有冬季降水量在1988年后发生突变,与年降水量变化同步。     

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Sahel – Part 2. Case Study for Groundnut and Cowpea in Niger

During the last 30 years, the climate of the West African Sahel has undergone various changes, especially in terms of rainfall. This has large consequences for the poor-resource farmers depending mainly on rainfed agriculture. This paper investigates the impacts of current climate variability and future climate change on groundnut and cowpea production in Niger for three major agricultural regions, including the groundnut basin.Niger was one of the largest West African groundnut producing and exporting countries. Groundnut production – as a cash crop – dropped fromabout 312,000 tons in the mid 1960s (about 68% exported) to as low as 13,000tons in 1988 and increased again to 110,000 tons in 2000. Cowpea, a food crop, showsa different tendency, going from 4,000 tons in the mid fifties to a maximum of 775,000 tons in 1997, and its cultivated area is still increasing. It is also a cash crop in local economies (especially for women).To highlight the impact of climate change on groundnut and cowpea production (significantly determined by rainfall in July, August and September), the following components of the rainfall regime were calculated for the period 1951–1998: mean annual and monthly rainfall, beginning, end and lengthof the rainy season, number of rainy days per month, amount of rainfall per rainy day and the maximum length of dry spell per month. Three sub-periods whose duration varied per region were defined: for Dosso 1951–1968,1969–1984 and 1985–1998; for Maradi 1951–1970, 1971–1987 and1988–1998; and for Zinder 1951–1966, 1967–1984 and 1985–1998. A change in rainfallregime components was observed between the three sub-periods, which were characterized in chronological order by wet, dry and intermediate conditions. To assess the impact of climate variability and change on groundnut and cowpea production, a statistical modeling approach has been followed, based on thirteen predictors as described and discussed in the preceding paper. Climate change is mimicked in terms of reduced total amount of rainfall for the three main rainfall months and an increased temperature, while maintaining other significant predictors at a constant level. In 2025,production of groundnut is estimated to be between 11 and 25% lower, while cowpeayield will fall maximally 30%. Various strategies to compensate thispotential loss are presented for the two crops.     

Climate Change and Cryptosporidiosis: A Qualitative Analysis

The effects of climate change on drinking-waterborne cryptosporidiosis transmission in the United States are analyzed using an influence diagram representation of epidemic development. Results from a systematic qualitative analysis indicate that climate change will have little effect on cryptosporidiosis incidence if the United States continues to be wealthy and maintains its commitment to public health. The major impact will, instead, be the additional costs of adapting to new climate regimes in order to avoid drinking-waterborne disease risk. These costs, for the most part, will be from improved monitoring and treatment of drinking water. The consequences of disaster scenarios are also considered. These, too, suggest that climate change per se will be a poor predictor of waterborne cryptosporidiosis in countries with high standards of living. Rather, the risk of epidemics will depend on the interplay between population, public health investment, infrastructure maintenance, emergency planning/response capabilities, water-treatment technologies, drinking-water regulations, and climate.     

中国气候变化指数分析

用统计学方法对全国范围内160个测站1951-1996年的46年内气温、降水资料进行分析，得出年平均气温、降水的标准化距平场以及冷、暖季的气温、降水的标准化距平场，干旱指数等一系列表征气候变化的指标，以这些指标为基础得出气候增暖作用指数和气候极值性指数，并得出气候变化趋势是向着干和热的方向发展变化的。     

山东省近40年气候变化特征

根据山东省60个气象站1961~2001年的气温与降水资料,利用回归分析、功率谱分析等方法,研究了山东省近41年气温与降水的年、季变化倾向、阶段性和周期性等变化特征。结果表明:①近41年山东省年平均气温有显著的上升趋势,各季平均气温虽也均呈上升趋势,但增温趋势表现出明显的季节非对称性,其中以冬季气温增幅最大。②年降水量呈下降趋势,年降水量减幅为每10年31.7 mm;不同季节降水的变化趋势有所不同,其中夏季降水减幅最大,而冬季降水略有增加。③山东省年平均气温的演变表现出明显的阶段性和周期性的基本特点,而降水的阶段性和周期性特征则不如气温显著。     

甘肃中部临夏温湿变化及影响分析

根据甘肃中部临夏州1971—2018年气温、降水,1980—2018年干旱资料,采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析临夏地区气温、降水量分布特点、变化趋势和气温的突变性及对干旱影响。结果表明:1971—2018年,临夏年平均气温呈上升趋势,1997年是气温突变年,20世纪80年代初期较低,90年代后期开始进入暖期,特别是在1999—2018年,气温急剧增暖。冬季和春季变暖趋势大于夏季,秋季气温变化幅度较小,临夏气温以中部和北部增温幅度最大。降水呈减少趋势,20世纪70年代降水量偏多,80—90年代偏少。与历年值相比,1971—1980年降水量增加6.3%,1981—1990年减少0.5%,1991—2000年减少1.8%,2001—2010年增加2.1%,2011—2017年减少2.3%。夏季降水量呈略减少趋势,其它季节为增加趋势。春旱、秋旱略有增加,春末夏初及伏旱略有减少趋势。     

Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policies: Part 2 – Model Results and Uncertainty Analysis

An integrated assessment model (IAM) is applied to explore optionsfor long-term climate policy by identifying permitted emissioncorridors. The options are determined under various assumptionsabout constraints related to acceptable impacts of climate changein terms of alterations induced in natural ecosystems in protectedareas and about acceptable mitigation costs, burden sharingprinciples, and implementation flexibility. The results show thatabout 25% of the protected areas worldwide will witness ecosystemtransformation in the next century even if the costs of emissionreduction are allowed to reach 2% of per-capita consumption. Anuncertainty analysis surveys the implications of modifyingselected key model variables on the existence and shape of theemission corridors. Within plausible ranges of parametervariations, the emission corridor turns out to be rather sensitiveto impact constraints, climatic constraints like the magnitude andrate of the global mean temperature increase, and to aerosolemission scenarios.