Risk of injury and death from lightning in Northern Malawi

Rates of lightning mortality in communities on the western shore of Lake Malawi are higher than any other reported rate in the world: 419 strike victims per million people per annum and 84 deaths per million per annum. To document the background to this phenomenon, we conducted comprehensive household interviews with surviving victims and witnesses of every case of lightning strike in seven administrative areas around Nkhata Bay, Malawi. We find that the consequential lightning strikes are significantly more common in the rainy season and during the morning. Among those victims struck by lightning, there is an average ratio of approximately one death to four injuries, which is substantially higher than the commonly accepted ratio of 1:10. Children and adults are at equal risk of being struck. If struck, the probability of death is greater when the victim is outside in the open or outside under cover than indoors under a tin or thatched roof, but is unaffected by different kinds of footwear or whether it is raining. Reported explanations for strikes often center on witchcraft or other forms of social conflict. Our findings extend the study of consequential lightning strikes in the developing world and highlight cultural factors associated with this hazard. We end with recommendations for reducing the risk of lightning for rural populations.     

Lightning fatalities in Colombia from 2000 to 2009

National lightning fatality information has been gathered and published for Australia, Canada, the USA, and Western Europe, but few such studies have taken place and been published in the formal literature during the last decade in other areas. National lightning fatality data are difficult to collect in many countries, especially in tropical regions, despite a high frequency of lightning. To partially fill this gap, the current paper provides the first comprehensive national summary of lightning deaths in Colombia. Data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics were gathered for 2000 through 2009 and were classified according to the number of fatalities by year, month, gender, age, and location of the fatality. These data were assigned to geographical departments to determine the fatality rates per type of population. Comparison was also made with the population percentage in rural areas where the outdoor lightning risk may be greater than in cities due to labor-intensive agricultural practices, housing that is unsafe from the lightning threat, lack of access to weather forecasts and lightning safety knowledge, and other factors. Data from an international lightning locating system also were used to determine the annual lightning frequency and monthly totals in Colombia. During the ten study years, 757 deaths were identified. The highest mortality rates were in rural areas with a maximum of 7.69 deaths per million per year in the Vaupes Department of eastern Colombia. The death rate for all of Colombia was 1.78 per million per year during the same period.     

我国雷电灾害及相关因素分析

为了更好地揭示雷电灾害的时空分布规律和成因机制过程,在1997—2006年全国雷电灾害数据库和星载闪电探测数据的基础上,分析研究了雷电灾害及相关因素的特征,包括雷电灾情、孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体及其相互作用,得到以下一些结果:①雷灾事故数、雷灾人员伤亡数与我国不同地区的致灾因子(闪电活动)、承灾体(人口和经济发展现况)成正相关;雷电灾情不同类型与承灾体类型(城乡人口比例、经济发展现况)有密切关系;②我国雷电灾情和闪电活动的时间特征是紧密相关的,同时雷电灾情的时间特征与人们的作息时间相关;③不同的孕灾环境下造成雷电伤害人员的方式特征不同,雷击死亡人数在农田最多,而受伤人数在建构筑物内最多;④80%的雷灾伤亡人员事故只涉及1~2人的生命安全,其中1人遭受雷击的占总事件的61%;⑤重大雷灾伤亡事件直接与承灾体的脆弱性有关。     

Risk perception and hazard mitigation in the Yangtze River Delta region,China

The Yangtze River Delta region is an area highly vulnerable to flooding. As the population density is rising concomitantly with high economic growth, this region is becoming more vulnerable to natural hazards. We conducted a survey to investigate the individual risk perception of both the local authorities and the general community, analyze the current situation regarding risk management and identify problems in the current risk management scheme. Data were collected through questionnaires distributed to some members of the community and interviews with representatives of the local authorities. The primary findings are as follows: (1) risk and disaster multipliers perceived by lay people show the stigma effect of the Wenchuan earthquake; (2) the responses of college students illustrate that the stigma effect has less influence on people who have more knowledge about hazards; (3) differences exist in comparative groups (China and USA), which shows that the society and culture influence people’s perception of risk; and (4) economic activities have complicated flood risk management such as land shortage, ground subsidence and flood diversion. Accordingly, the following measures should be taken: (1) the government should improve the risk communication and education of lay people; (2) the government must also control unsuitable land use and balance economic development and risk management; (3) flood diversion areas should be compensated through special funds collected from other cities; and (4) local governments should provide more support for hazard mitigation.     

青海省东部农业区雷电灾害风险评估

利用2005-2013年青海省东部农业区14个县的雷电、雷电灾害、人口数量和生产总值等资料,采用《雷电灾害风险评估技术规范》（DB 50/214-2006）中的雷电灾害易损性风险评估指标,分析了该地的雷电灾害风险及区划,该风险区划对青海省东北农业区防御雷电灾害规划具有很好的参考价值,也是制定科学合理的雷电防护技术路线的重要依据：青海省东部农业区9年间共出现雷电3 801 d,最早出现在3月下旬,最晚结束在11月上旬,雷电出现最多地区为大通县;雷电灾害共出现47次,最早出现在4月,10月份结束,发生最多在6月份,盛夏7月雷电灾害却少,西宁市和湟源县雷电灾害出现最多,湟中县雷电造成的人员伤亡最多,共伤亡11人,大部分在山间劳作的村民和牧民,与青海省东部农业区发生的其它气象灾害相比,雷电灾害最容易造成人员和牲畜伤亡。雷电灾害风险以西宁市为中心,向四周扩散逐渐降低,北部地区相对高于南部地区,西宁市、大通县遭受雷电灾害的可能性程度最大,乐都县虽然近9年没有上报的雷电灾情,但它的雷电灾害风险并不低。     

东胜矿区哈拉沟井田地质灾害危险性评估

在详细调查研究区内地质灾害现状的情况下,对采煤引起的覆岩破坏、地表变形等进行了预测,并采用模糊综合评判二次评价模型对地质灾害危险性进行了综合预测。结果表明,研究区地质灾害现状不发育,但井下采矿工程对地面建筑物的危险性大,易引发崩塌、地裂缝、地面塌陷等灾害;预测地质灾害危险大区分布于井田北部、东部和南部,危险性中等区则位于井田中部。预测结果对于矿井的安全生产具有一定的指导意义。     

Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China

Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China.     

Active fault mapping: An initiative towards seismic hazard assessment in India

Identification and characterization of active faults and deciphering their seismic potential are of vital importance in seismic hazard assessment of any region. Seismic vulnerability of India is well known as more than 60 % of its area lies in high hazard zones due to the presence of major active faults in its plate boundaries and continental interiors, which produced large earthquakes in the past and have potential to generate major earthquakes in future. The safety of critical establishments, like Power plants, Refinaries and other lifeline structures is a major concern in these areas and calls for a better characterization of these faults to help mitigate the impact of future earthquakes. The paper provides a brief overview of the work carried out in India on active fault research, its limitations and immediate priorities.     

陕西镇安县地质灾害特征及其危险性分区

镇安县地处秦岭南麓,地质环境条件差,地质灾害多发。调查面积共计3487km2,发现地质灾害点共计319处,其中滑坡286处,泥石流12处,崩塌17处,地面塌陷4处,且主要分布于乾佑河流域、冷水河流域与达仁河流域。研究认为,多雨年份和每年6~10月份是地质灾害多发季节,其中强降雨、河水位升降和人类工程活动是诱发地质灾害多发的主要因素。根据地质灾害点的现状与潜在发展趋势,结合不同因素单元,划分地质灾害危险区,分别为2个高危险区、5个中危险区和4个低危险区。调查区内以小型地质灾害居多,威胁口人多,治理费用高,因此灾害防治以＂监测预防＂为主,工程治理为辅,加强民众地质灾害安全教育与培训。     

Correlates of hazards education for youth: a replication study

Youth and families have been identified as particularly vulnerable to the effects of hazardous events. This study examined correlates of hazards education involvement for youth. Participants were 407 youth between the ages of 7 and 18 who filled out several indices reflecting hazards awareness, risk perceptions, psychological factors, knowledge, and adoption of hazards adjustments and family emergency plans. Additionally, interactive factors were assessed, the extent to which education programs encouraged youth to discuss their learning with parents and whether such discussions occurred. Overall, findings replicated and extended previous research. First, younger children were generally seen to be more prepared; girls, more knowledgeable. Second, youth involved in education programs had significantly higher levels of correct knowledge of readiness and response behaviors, lower levels of incorrect knowledge, and reported more home-based hazards adjustments. One important area where no differences were seen was in the area of family emergency planning. Predictors of increased educational benefits included program recency, encouragement to interact with parents and, to a slightly lesser extent, parent discussion willingness. Combined with previous research indicating that even simple and brief reading and discussion programs can produce tangible benefits, findings here encourage the incorporation of easy-to-do features that can increase benefits for youth and their families.     

Seismic hazard and total risk analyses for large dams in Euphrates basin,Turkey

Reservoirs constructed near urban areas pose a high-risk potential for downstream life and property. Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions in the world and has at least 1200 large dams with different types. Major earthquakes with the potential of threatening life and property occur frequently here. The Euphrates basin studied in this article is located in a seismically very active part of Turkey. The northern part of the basin is structurally cut by numerous faults. Many large dams are located on or close to these faults. In this paper we summarize the methods used for the analysis of seismic hazards and total risk, discuss the seismic hazards of thirty-two large dams constructed on the Euphrates basin on the basis of the seismic activity of the dam site and their total risk as based on physical properties and the position in the basin. The seismic hazard analyses have indicated that peak ground acceleration changes within a wide range (0.011 g and 0.564 g) for the dam sites of the basin. A seismic hazard map showing the equivalent PGA (peak ground acceleration) values was developed so as to use for the preliminary analysis of dam structures, which will be designed in the basin. The total risk analyses depending on the seismic hazard rating of dam site and risk rating of the structure have concluded that fifteen large dams have high-risk class in the basin. These dams must be analyzed with high priority and redesigned to increase the safety of the embankments and their appurtenant structures, if necessary.     

Driving the ‘Starship Enterprise’ through London: Constructing the im/moral driver-citizen through HGV safety technology

The intersections between technology, mobility and citizenship have been relatively neglected in current geographical enquiry. Through qualitative analysis of user, operator and media accounts of retro-fitted safety technology on HGVs (Heavy Goods Vehicles), this paper illustrates the ways in which citizenship as a moral accomplishment is dependent upon the socio-technical worlds into which individual actors are folded. In response to the growing incidence of cyclist fatalities under the wheels of HGVs, various safety technologies have been positioned as reliable ‘intermediaries’ by policymakers, manufacturers and operators seeking to mitigate the risks of the HGV. However, we demonstrate that these technologies are more accurately seen as ‘mediators’, because of the ways in which they distort and translate information, producing and reshaping new tasks and roles for HGV drivers. One of the consequences of this is a shift in responsibility towards the drivers, which increases the potential to construct them as negligent if accidents still occur. Accordingly, we indicate how technologies ‘push back’ on mobile subjects, shaping not only their ability for moral conduct, but broader social identities as citizens.     

College students’ consumption, contribution, and risk awareness related to online mapping services and social media outlets: does geography and GIS knowledge matter?

Location-enabled online tools and/or services (i.e. Google Earth/Maps, Flickr, Facebook check-ins, etc.) have been widely used for distributing and processing geospatial-related data. They attract diverse users to consume and contribute geographic information (GI) in many different forms. This study examines college students’ consumption and contribution of GI through these tools and/or services as well as their perception of risk and privacy. It evaluates the impact of Geographic information systems (GIS) and geography knowledge on the related behavior and perception. Through conducting a survey, it was found that college students’ consumption frequency of GI through the investigated tools and services is positively related to their knowledge in GIS and geography, but their GI contribution is not related. GIS knowledge was found to help raise students’ awareness level of risk. However, this relationship does not translate into students’ concern about potential privacy disclosure or their willingness to share personal location information through using location-enabled online tools and/or services. Discussions on the gap between students’ consumption and contribution of GI through the tools and/or services are shared in the paper as well as possible explanations on the disconnection between their risk awareness, privacy concern, and willingness to share personal information. Future research directions are discussed.     

安徽省桐城市地质灾害发育规律及特征浅析

安徽省桐城市地质环境复杂,是安徽省地质灾害多发频发的地区之一,尤其以小规模的崩塌、滑坡为主,给桐城市人民造成了巨大经济损失和人员伤亡,并严重威胁当地居民的生命财产安全。本文在地质灾害调查的基础上,对桐城市地质灾害发育规律及特征做进一步的分析研究,以期对桐城市地质灾害防治工作有所借鉴。     

Testing the use of a ‘questionnaire survey instrument’ to investigate public perceptions of tsunami hazard and risk in Sydney,Australia

The Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) of December 2004 has demonstrated that the coasts of Australia are vulnerable to tsunami flooding. As a consequence of the IOT, the Australian Federal Treasurer announced in 2005 that the Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia will jointly develop and implement the Australian Tsunami Warning System. Effective response to tsunami warnings is highly dependent on public awareness and perception of tsunami hazard and risk. At present, no efforts have been made to investigate and publish public awareness of tsunami hazard and risk and as such, emergency managers have little idea of the likely challenges to effecting appropriate tsunami risk management. We develop a short questionnaire survey instrument and trial that instrument in order to investigate its suitability for generating information about the perceptions of tsunami hazard and risk in the Sydney region. We found that the design, layout and format of the questionnaire were suitable for our purpose and should be useful for generating information appropriate to emergency management agencies tasked with the responsibility of developing tsunami education campaigns and risk mitigation strategies in Australia. However, certain limitations, such as individual question design and format, should be considered before a much larger survey of various stakeholders is conducted.     

Perception of earthquake risk: a study of the earthquake insurance pilot area in China

In 2014, China will pilot its first earthquake insurance program, and the inhabitants’ perception of earthquake risk in the pilot area is significant for the implementation of this plan. In this study, the authors conducted a field survey in four districts in the insurance pilot area to investigate the factors affecting the earthquakes risk perception of residents. The survey concentrates on the factors of hazard experience and residents’ house type and shows that people who have experienced more earthquakes tend to have a lower risk perception while people who have suffered serious earthquake loss tend to have a higher risk perception. For the house type factor, the author finds that house type is correlated with the risk perception from an earthquake. The effect on risk perception is significantly reduced when people enhance their house type with brick walls, concrete beams, and column. Furthermore, gender, income, and education level also have direct effects on how residents perceive of the risk from an earthquake.     

An investigation of disaster education in elementary and secondary schools: evidence from China

The role of school-based disaster education in mitigating natural disaster has received extensive emphasis across the world. After the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the elementary and secondary schools in China have attached more importance to disaster education. However, it is unclear about the outcome up to now. Therefore, we conduct a relatively extensive survey in Beijing, Hunan, Guangdong and Sichuan recently, based on the perspectives of both students and teachers, so as to explore their attitude, gains, and expectations. The findings indicate that, first, it is the consensus that school-based disaster education should be enhanced to raise the awareness and capability of students to address disasters. Second, school-based disaster education has received overall positive outcome in recent years, although there are also 18% students expressing that their schools have not opened disaster curricula or they are unclear about that. Third, almost all the teachers argue that schools should develop disaster-related curricula, incorporate disaster education curricula into the compulsory curricula, and design special textbooks for disaster education. Finally, most teachers insist that the school-based disaster education has limited effect on students to improve their disaster prevention awareness and capability; in particular, the disaster education tends to impart knowledge for the most part but lack attractiveness and local features.     

Assessing response behaviour of debris-flows affected communities in Kaohsiung,Taiwan

During Typhoon Morakot which hit Taiwan from 6 to 9 August, 2009, Kaohsiung City was highly affected by devastating debris-flows and flooding. Recorded casualties were 699 deaths and 1,766 damaged homes, mostly in the mountainous areas of Kaohsiung City. Due to a largely malfunctioning or absent early-warning system, residents in those mountainous villages were required to rely on individual- and/or community-based capacities to evacuate and respond to debris-flow-related disasters. Hence, this study investigates the response behaviour of selected debris-flow-affected communities in Kaohsiung City, based on a preparedness awareness action and affect model. Key results from the survey highlight that only 13.8 % of the households received formal (institutional) early warning, whereas 86.2 % households had to rely on their intrinsic senses and indigenous knowledge to recognise the onset of debris-flows in their villages during Typhoon Morakot. Among those households who did not receive formal early warning, 10 % of the households received previous disaster education, 17 % had previous disaster experience, and 73 % did have neither disaster education nor disaster experience. Furthermore, households with disaster education were among those who were best prepared and knew best how to evacuate and respond to debris-flow-related disasters followed by households with disaster experiences. Finally, findings from the survey and selected key informants’ interviews identified that the response behaviour of communities ought to be enhanced through the following measures: conduction of hydro-meteorological-related disaster education, improved participatory risk communication and enhanced recognition of communities as vital actors during a disaster to provide local knowledge and support to relief operations.     

Characteristics and mitigation of the snow avalanche hazard in Kaghan Valley,Pakistan Himalaya

Snow avalanche hazards in mountainous areas of developing countries have received scant attention in the scientific literature. The purpose of this paper is to describe this hazard and mitigative measures in Kaghan Valley, Pakistan Himalaya, and to review alternatives for future reduction of this hazard. Snow avalanches have long posed a hazard and risk to indigenous populations of the Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya mountains. Land use intensification due to population growth, new transportation routes, military activity and tourism is raising levels of risk. The history of land use in the study area is such that investigations of avalanche hazard must rely on different theoretical bases and data than in most industrialised countries. Despite the intensive use of valley-bottom land which is affected by avalanches, a number of simple measures are currently employed by the indigenous population to mitigate the hazard. Out-migration during the winter months is the most important one. During the intensive use period of summer avalanche-transported snow provides numerous resources for the population. In Kaghan the avalanche hazard is increasing primarily as a result of poorly located new buildings and other construction projects. The large scale of avalanche activity there rules out any significant improvement or protection of the currently difficult winter access. Instead, future mitigation of the hazard should focus on protecting the small number of winter inhabitants and minimising property damage.     

Active hydrothermal fluids circulation triggering small-scale collapse events: the case of the 2001–2002 fissure in the Lakki Plain (Nisyros Island,Aegean Sea,Greece)

Rip currents are fast moving, offshore flows that have the ability to move even the strongest swimmers into deeper waters. Miami Beach, Florida is one of the most visited beaches in the USA and a sought after destination for citizens and international tourists alike. It is also known to be a rip current “hot spot.” These factors greatly increase the risk of drowning; however, no previous research has focused on beachgoer perception of rip-related risks in South Florida. Over a 12-month period, 203 public surveys were collected to determine the rip current knowledge of beachgoers at Miami Beach based on factors such as swimming ability and frequency of beach visits. The responses were analyzed by constructing a normalized component factor to determine the respondent’s comprehensive knowledge of rips, and multiple regression models were used to assess the net influences of sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics on the responses. A significant proportion of the survey respondents showed insufficient knowledge, indicating they are at risk of drowning in a rip current. Frequent beachgoer’s exposure to the beach environment, maturation, and nativity is identified as the main contributors to knowledge net of other sociodemographic compositions. The most at-risk groups were determined to be young adults, foreign tourists, poor swimmers, and those who infrequently visited the beach. Miami Beach needs to initiate a rip current safety campaign to target these at-risk beachgoers, where interventions beyond familial and educational institutions should be introduced.