气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环

 随着全球变暖的日益显著,气候变化及其影响越来越受到广泛关注。火干扰作为森林生态系统碳循环的一个重要组成部分,其干扰过程是对碳的再分配过程,因而对区域乃至全球的碳循环产生重要影响。气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环三者之间存在因果循环关系,正确认识气候变化与火干扰的复杂关系及双向反馈作用,以及火干扰在生态系统碳循环中的作用,这对制定科学合理的火干扰管理策略,提高生态系统管理水平,减少碳排放,促进碳增汇,减缓全球变化速率均有重要意义。从两个方面阐述了气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环之间的交互作用关系：气候变化与火干扰相互影响关系及双向反馈作用,分别从气候变化对火干扰的影响及火干扰对气候变化的影响两个方面阐述了两者之间的相互影响关系;火干扰与森林生态系统碳循环的交互作用,分别从火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响及模型方法在模拟火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环影响中的应用两个方面论述火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响及其定量评价模型方法。目前火干扰直接碳排放的模型方法比较完善,而间接影响碳循环的模型方法并不成熟,许多方法局限于定性描述,因此,应进一步探讨集成实地测量、遥感观测和模型模拟的跨尺度火干扰对碳循环的影响研究,注重尺度的转换问题。最后,提出了气候变暖背景下火干扰管理的路径选择,以及对今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

国外湿地生态系统碳循环研究进展

在全球变化背景下,面对湿地生态系统是否能维持其碳汇功能等问题,在以下几方面进行了讨论:当前湿地生态系统碳源与碳汇评估中存在的问题;湿地碳源与碳汇功能时空格局变异最新研究进展;影响湿地甲烷排放的因素;湿地碳循环过程对全球变暖的响应模式;湿地生态系统碳循环模拟。认为当前对湿地生态系统碳循环认识的局限性,是导致碳循环成为全球变暖互馈机制中不确定性的主要原因之一。针对中国当前湿地生态系统碳循环研究的特点,提出了中国未来湿地生态系统碳循环研究的焦点问题,即如何在气候变化及人类活动双重影响下,维持中国湿地生态系统现有碳储存库的功能,以及如何提高已退化湿地的固碳功能及潜力。     

中美俄加陆域碳汇对人为增温的消减贡献

作为主要的气候强迫因子,CO2与人类活动密切相关,但很多研究往往忽视了陆地生态系统碳汇对人为排放CO2增温的消减作用.俄罗斯、加拿大、中国和美国是世界上地域面积最大、且社会经济处于不同发展阶段的4个国家,将短时期内CO2排放所引起的辐射强迫进行量化分析,对于评估人为和自然因素对气候的影响非常重要.本文基于CO2同化数据...     

模拟增温对生态系统碳循环影响研究进展

气候变暖影响着生态系统碳循环,碳循环的变化反馈于气候变化。这两者的相互作用影响着未来气候变化的方向和强度。野外增温试验有助于了解生态系统碳循环对气候变化的响应及其机制,因此成为近年来的研究热点。生态系统所处的地理位置及相应的气候背景影响着碳循环对增温的响应。增温后不同生态系统的碳释放和碳固定均可表现为增加、减小或者无显著变化,因而生态系统净碳收支对气候变化响应多样。增温后土壤氮矿化速率、物候、生态系统物种组成和结构的变化间接影响着生态系统净碳收支。多年冻土区储存了大量的土壤有机碳,冻土融化后冻土有机碳分解将释放大量的CO₂到大气中,正反馈于气候变暖,因而是目前野外增温试验对碳循环影响研究的焦点。     

Implications of climate,land-use and land-cover changes for pastoralism in eastern Sudan

This study examines the changes in climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC) along the livestock seasonal migration routes in El Gedaref region (eastern Sudan). Analysis of temperature, rainfall and aridity index (ratio of rainfall to reference evapotranspiration) data during 1941–2009 shows significant warming of the climate, increasing rainfall variability and seasonality, and intensifying aridity conditions during the start and end of the wet season. The somewhat recent enhancement of the overall (annual) rainfall has reflected only in the mid wet season and were caused by few very wet days, indicating increased rainfall concentration and possible risk of soil erosion. Such climatic alterations and variability have inherent implications for land-use and land-cover over the region. LULC changes were investigated using multi-temporal satellite imagery from three sites along the livestock routes. The major trends were drastic conversions of natural vegetation areas into large-scale mechanized agricultural land. This resulted in a progressive loss and degradation of grazing area in the entire region. Overall, the documented LULC changes may cause an irreversible loss of biodiversity and a depletion of other ecological services provided by natural vegetation. The results of this study provide useful information when seeking to resolve complex land-management issues.     

Carbon neutrality and mitigating contribution of terrestrial carbon sink on anthropogenic climate warming in China,the United States,Russia and Canada

Carbon dioxide(CO_2) is a major climate forcing factor, closely related to human activities. Quantifying the contribution of CO_2 emissions to the global radiative forcing(RF) is therefore important to evaluate climate effects caused by anthropogenic and natural factors. China, the United States(USA), Russia and Canada are the largest countries by land area, at different levels of socio-economic development. In this study, we used data from the CarbonTracker CO_2 assimilation model(CT2017 data set) to analyze anthropogenic CO_2 emissions and terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks from 2000 to 2016. We derived net RF contributions and showed that anthropogenic CO_2 emissions had increased significantly from 2000 to 2016, at a rate of 0.125 PgC yr~(-1). Over the same period, carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems increased at a rate of 0.003 PgC yr~(-1). Anthropogenic CO_2 emissions in China and USA accounted for 87.19% of the total, while Russian terrestrial ecosystems were the largest carbon sink and absorbed 14.69 PgC. The resulting cooling effect was-0.013 W m~(-2) in 2016, representing an offset of-45.06% on climate warming induced by anthropogenic CO_2. This indicates that net climate warming would be significantly overestimated if terrestrial ecosystems were not included in RF budget analyses. In terms of cumulative effects, we analyzed RFs using reference atmospheres of 1750, at the start of the Industrial Revolution, and 2000, the initial year of this study. Anthropogenic CO_2 emissions in the study area contributed by + 0.42 W m~(-2) and +0.32 W m~(-2) to the global RF, relative to CO_2 levels of 1750 and 2000, respectively. We also evaluated correlations between global mean atmospheric temperature and net, anthropogenic and natural RFs. We found that the combined(net) RF caused by CO_2 emissions accounted for 30.3% of global mean temperature variations in 2000–2016.     

全球森林固碳潜力巨大(英文)

森林是重要的陆地生态系统碳汇。1990–2007年间全球森林平均每年从大气中吸收固定2.4±0.4PgC,但对全球森林未来固碳量的评价多是基于气候因素的过程模型的模拟结果,很少有基于森林调查样地数据评价全球森林固碳潜力的研究。我们收集整理野外调查和已发表的成熟林生物量数据728条,建立全球成熟林生物量数据库。根据成熟林地上生物量碳储量空间插值,得到全球森林地上生物量碳容量,进而评估全球森林地上生物量的固碳潜力。结果显示:(1)全球成熟林地上生物量自赤道向两极整体呈递减趋势,但最大值出现在中纬度区;(2)气温和降水是影响成熟林地上生物量的重要因素;(3)全球森林地上生物量碳容量约为586.2±49.3PgC,其地上生物量固碳潜力为313.4PgC。因此,充分发挥现有森林的碳吸存能力,减少对现有森林碳库的干扰,是土地利用变化之外减缓温室气体排放的又一可选途径。     

湿地生态系统碳储存和温室气体排放研究

湿地生态系统是地球上重要的有机碳储库, 湿地植被和土壤碳储量丰富、碳密度高。湿地还是CO₂、CH₄和N₂O等温室气体的源和汇。近百年来,由于土地利用,特别是农业开发和泥炭开采,导致大面积湿地被排干,并排放大量温室气体。多项研究表明湿地保护和恢复能促进碳积累和减少温室气体排放,通过对国内外有关文献的分析,针对近年来科学界普遍关注的湿地生态系统碳储量、碳平衡和土地利用对温室气体排放的影响、湿地与全球气候变化关系等方面的问题进行了初步探讨。     

区域尺度陆地生态系统固碳速率和潜力定量认证方法及其不确定性分析

区域尺度陆地生态系统固碳速率和潜力定量认证的方法及其不确定性分析是国家应对气候变化的重要基础工作。目前国内外对于陆地生态系统碳汇以及增汇潜力计量方法已经开展了大量的研究,提出了温室气体排放清单的计量方法,CDM（清洁发展机制）造林再造林项目碳汇的计量方法,以及土地利用变化碳汇计量等方法,国家温室气体清单的方法仅适用于国家范围的碳汇计量,对于区域碳汇计量却十分粗略。CDM造林再造林项目仅局限于森林管理等项目,而未涵盖将来可能列入碳汇目标的其它生态系统增汇管理措施。目前,关于森林、草地、农田等区域尺度生态系统碳汇计量还没有形成统一的、标准化的方法体系。本文对IPCC国家尺度的碳排放和陆地增汇技术评估方法体系、土地利用对陆地碳源汇影响的评价方法、以及人为管理措施下陆地生态系统增汇效应计量方法进行了详细的阐述,并对每种计量方法的不确定性进行分析,期望为中国陆地生态系统固碳速率、增汇潜力的计量、报告、认证和核查方法论和技术体系的建立提供依据。     

一次能源消费导致的二氧化碳排放量变化

从不同燃料和不同地区入手,分析了我国1995~2006年间一次能源消费导致的二氧化碳排放量变化情况。结果表明:1995~2006年间,我国一次能源消费导致的二氧化碳年总排放量呈现"先减少后增加"的发展态势,其拐点出现在2000年,而且2001年后各个省(区、市)的二氧化碳年排放量较前期均有大幅度的增加,总排放量由1995年的78678万t碳增长到2006年的146919万t碳,年均增长率5.84％,人均二氧化碳年排放量也由0.62t碳/人增加到1.12t碳/人;煤炭消费导致的二氧化碳排放量占全国二氧化碳年总排放量的79%~85％;我国七大区和大部分省(区、市)二氧化碳年排放量与全国总排放量有类似的发展态势,其中华北、华东地区二氧化碳排放量居全国首位,山西省的二氧化碳排放量位居全国第一。     

青藏高原生态系统服务权衡与协同关系

青藏高原被称为世界的"第三极",随着全球变化和频繁的人类活动,生态系统服务之间彼此消长,分析生态系统服务的时空变化及权衡协同关系对青藏高原地区的生态环境和经济的协调发展具有重要意义.本文结合遥感、气象、土地利用等多源数据,并基于逐像元相关分析法,对研究区长时间序列下产水价值量、固碳价值量和气候调节价值量间的权衡与协同关...     

中国森林生态系统的植物碳贮量及其影响因子分析

利用中国第四次(1989~1993年)森林资源清查资料,指出中国森林植被的总碳贮量和碳密度分别为 3 778.1Tg(1Tg = 10¹² g)和41.321 Mg/hm²(1 Mg= 10⁶ g),其分布很不均衡,东北和西南各省的碳贮量和碳密度较大。中国森林碳贮量约占世界的1.1%,森林碳密度低于世界平均水平,但中国森林以中、幼龄林为主,占80%以上,表明中国森林植被具有巨大的固碳潜力,对全球碳循环具有重要作用。同时,采用多元线性回归模型、标准系数法定量分析了气候因子对森林植被碳贮量的影响程度,指出气温对森林植被碳贮量的贡献大于降水。     

Analyzing land-cover change and corresponding impacts on carbon budget in a fast developing sub-tropical region by integrating MODIS and Landsat TM/ETM+ images

Land-cover change has significant impacts on regional carbon dynamics. Understanding the carbon consequences of land-cover change is necessary for decision makers to address the issues of carbon reduction and climate change mitigation. Optical remote sensing images have been widely used for detecting regional land-cover change. However, it is difficult to acquire desirable images for regions that are frequently affected by cloudy and rainy weather. In this study, we proposed an approach to deal with this problem by integrating moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat images based on the mixed-label analysis (MLA) model. We tested this model in Guangdong Province, a fast developing sub-tropical region in China, to derive the provincial land-cover data for the analysis of land-cover change between 2000 and 2009 and its impacts on regional carbon dynamics. Results show that forest land decreased by 3.03%, while built-up area rapidly expanded by 73.01% from 2000 to 2009. The regional vegetation carbon sink declined by 2.6%, whereas the regional carbon emissions increased by more than 100% due to the fast urbanization and economic development. The regional vegetation carbon sink can only offset 4.1% of total carbon emissions in 2009, far below the national level (about 7.0–7.7%) at the same period. Future efforts to improve the regional carbon budget should focus more on the control of land development and the advance of energy efficiency.     

Carbon cycle in the Arctic terrestrial ecosystems in relation to the global warming

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Global warming,population growth,and natural resources for food production

Destruction of forests and the considerable burning of fossil fuels is directly causing the level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases including methane, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere to rise. Population growth in the US and the world indirectly contributes to this global warming. This has led the majority of scientists interested in weather and climate to predict that the planet's temperature will increase from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. These forecasted climactic changes will most likely strongly affect crop production. Specifically these scientists expect the potential changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, and pests to decrease food production in North America. The degree of changes hinges on each crop and its environmental needs. If farmers begin using improved agricultural technology, the fall in crop yields can be somewhat counterbalanced. Even without global warming, however, agriculture in North America must embrace sensible ecological resource management practices such as conserving soil, water, energy, and biological resources. These sustainable agricultural practices would serve agriculture, farmers, the environment, and society. Agriculturalists, farmers, and society are already interested in sustainable agriculture. Still scientists must conduct more research on the multiple effects of potential global climate change on many different crops under various environmental conditions and on new technologies that farmers might use in agricultural production. We must cut down our consumption of fossil fuel, reduce deforestation, erase poverty, and protect our soil, water, and biological resources. The most important action we need to take, however, is to check population growth.     

Characteristics of permafrost degradation in Northeast China and its ecological effects: A review

Latitudinal permafrost in Northern Northeast(NNE)China is located in the southern margin of the Eurasian continent,and is very sensitive to climatic and environmental change.Numerical simulations indicate that air temperature in the permafrost regions of Northeast China has been on the rise since the 1950s,and will keep rising in the 21st century,leading to extensive degradation of permafrost.Permafrost degradation in NNE China has its own characteristics,such as northward shifts in the shape of a"W"for the permafrost southern boundary(SLP),discontinuous permafrost degradation into islandlike frozen soil,and gradually disappearing island permafrost.Permafrost degradation leads to deterioration of the ecological environment in cold regions.As a result,the belt of larch forests dominated by Larix gmelinii has shifted northwards and wetland areas with symbiotic relationships with permafrost have decreased significantly.With rapid retreat and thinning of permafrost and vegetation change,the CO2 and CH4 flux increases with mean air temperature from continuous to sporadic permafrost areas as a result of activity of methanogen enhancement,positively feeding back to climate warming.This paper reviews the features of permafrost degradation,the effects of permafrost degradation on wetland and forest ecosystem structure and function,and greenhouse gas emissions on latitudinal permafrost in NNE China.We also put forward critical questions about the aforementioned effects,including:(1)establish long-term permafrost observation systems to evaluate the distribution of permafrost and SLP change,in order to study the feedback of permafrost to climate change;(2)carry out research about the effects of permafrost degradation on the wetland ecosystem and the response of Xing'an larch to global change,and predict ecosystem dynamics in permafrost degradation based on long-term field observation;(3)focus intensively on the dynamics of greenhouse gas flux in permafrost degradation of Northeast China and the feedback of greenhouse gas emissions to climate change;(4)quantitative studies on the permafrost carbon feedback and vegetation carbon feedback due to permafrost change to climate multi-impact and estimate the balance of C in permafrost regions in the future.     

中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力变化特征——基于过程模型和遥感模型的评估结果

净初级生产力（NPP）作为生态系统物质与能量循环的基础,是区域和全球尺度碳循环和碳收支研究的重要组成部分。研究区域和全球尺度的净初级生产力主要依靠模型手段实现,过程和遥感模型是目前广泛使用的两种模型形式。本文搜集并整理了基于过程模型和遥感模型对我国陆地生态系统净初级生产力的模拟结果,分析了中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力的时间变化及对未来气候变化的响应特征,旨在对其进行综合评价。结果表明,中国陆地生态系统NPP平均为（2.828±0.827）PgC.a-1。1982-1998年的年际变化特征上,NPP平均每年增加0.027 PgC,年增长率为1.07%,总体上呈现在波动中逐年上升的趋势。不同植被类型的单位面积NPP总体表现为常绿阔叶林显著高于其他植被类型,但不同研究结果间变化范围很大;落叶针叶林、常绿针叶林和落叶阔叶林相差较小;农作物低于阔叶林,但高于针叶林;草地和荒漠均位于低值区,但前者显著高于后者。不同植被类型的NPP总量总体表现为农作物和草地位居前两位,两者之和高达各植被类型NPP总量之和的58.34%;除灌丛和常绿针叶林外,其余植被类型均不足总量的10%。在未来气候情景下,中国陆地生态系统NPP总体上可能表现为先增加后减小的趋势。     

围封和放牧对科尔沁沙质草地净生态系统碳交换量的影响

利用箱式法对科尔沁地区围封和放牧条件下的沙质草地净生态系统碳交换量(NEE)进行研究,以探讨围封、放牧对NEE的影响。结果显示:(1)围封17年样地的NEE显著小于围封22年样地的,围封22年样地的显著小于放牧样地的(P<0.01)。(2)在植物生长季内,围封样地总体表现出碳汇功能,放牧样地表现出碳源功能。(3)从碳净固定的量来看,围封17年沙质草地的净碳固定能力强于围封22年的;而围封22年比围封17年的沙质草地的在净碳固定方面持续的时间较长。(4)不同环境因子对不同处理NEE的影响程度不尽相同,其线性组合最大可解释NEE的变异依次为围封22年(39.5%)>围封17年(32.1%)>放牧(21.2%)。     

A quantitative comparison and analysis on the assessment indicators of greenhouse gases emission

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emission and related global warming issues have been the focus of international communities for some time. The international communities have reached a consensus to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions and restrain global warming. The quantitative assessment of anthropogenic GHG emissions is the scientific basis to find out the status of global GHG emission, identify the commitments of each country, and arrange the international efforts of GHG emission reduction. Currently the main assessment indicators for GHG emission include national indicator, per capita indicator, per GDP indicator, and international trade indicator etc. The introduction to the above indicators is put forward and their merits and demerits are analyzed. Based on the GHG emission data from the World Resource Institute (WRI), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), the results of each indictor are calculated for the world, for the eight G8 industrialized countries (USA, UK, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Russia), and the five major developing countries including China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Mexico. The paper points out that all these indicators have some limitations. The Indicator of Industrialized Accumulative Emission per Capita (IAEC) is put forward as the equitable indicator to evaluate the industrialized historical accumulative emission per capita of every country. IAEC indicator can reflect the economic achievement of GHG emission enjoyed by the current generations in every country and their commitments. The analysis of IAEC indicates that the historical accumulative emission per capita in industrialized countries such as UK and USA were typically higher than those of the world average and the developing countries. Emission indicator per capita per GDP, consumptive emission indicator and survival emission indicator are also put forward and discussed in the paper.     

气候变化情景下中国陆地生态系统碳吸收功能风险评价

气候变化会对陆地生态系统的碳吸收产生影响,从而改变其碳的源汇功能.因此,评估未来气候变化下陆地生态系统碳吸收功能面临的风险,可以为中国应对气候变化措施的制定和国际碳排放谈判提供科学依据.本文采用大气-植被相互作用模型对气候变化情景下净生态系统生产力进行模拟,运用线性倾向估计方法确定碳吸收功能风险评估标准,对中国陆地生态...