Spatio-temporal patterns of drought evolution over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Spatio-temporal patterns of drought from 1961 to 2013 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China were analyzed using the Palmer Drought Severity index...     

Evaluation of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite precipitation products for drought monitoring over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin,China

Drought is one of the most frequent and widespread natural disasters and has tremendous agricultural, ecological, societal, and economic impacts. Among the many drought indices, the standardized precipitation index(SPI) based on monthly precipitation data is simple to calculate and has multiscale characteristics. To evaluate the applicability of high spatiotemporal resolution satellite precipitation products for drought monitoring, based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) products and station-based meteorological data, the SPI values at different time scales(1, 3, 6, and 12 months) were calculated for the period of 1998–2016 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MLRYRB). The temporal correlations show that there is a high degree of consistency between calculations at the different time scales(1, 3, 6 and 12 months) based on the two data sources and that the amplitude of fluctuations decreases with increasing time scale. In addition, the Mann-Kendall(MK) test method was applied to analyze the trends from 1998 to 2016, and the results suggest that wetting trends clearly prevailed over drying trends. Moreover, a correlation analysis of the two data sources based on 60 meteorological stations was performed with the SPI values at different time scales. The correlation coefficients at the short time scales(1, 3, and 6 months) are all greater than 0.7, and the correlation coefficient at the long time scale(12 months) is greater than 0.5. In summary, the results demonstrate that the TRMM 3 B43 precipitation product provides a new data source that can be used for reliable drought monitoring in the MLRYRB.     

中国干旱预警系统研究

通过分析我国干旱预警现状,结合国家社会预警体系建设,提出我国4级干旱预警应急等级、预警管理和综合预警标准,并将全国划分为特旱、重旱、干旱3类预警区。文章重点探讨了干旱预警系统建设的目标,行动计划,以及干旱预警5大系统建设内容等。研究认为加强国际合作与交流,开展跨学科干旱预警研究,建立国家干旱监测预警和评估标准体系,组建中国干旱监测预警和研究中心是提高我国干旱监测、预测预警和减灾能力建设的重要途径。     

气候变暖背景下中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间及其南北差异性

在全球气温日趋升高和极端降水增加的气候背景下,近年来中国干旱变化特征异常突出,新形势下需进一步深入认识干旱灾害影响机制。利用1960—2014年中国527个气象站逐日气温和降水量数据,选用改进的综合气象干旱指数（MCI）作为监测指标,详细分析了中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间变化特征及其南北差异性。结果表明：气候变暖背景下,中国干旱范围扩大、程度加剧、频次增加;干旱发生的范围发生了明显的转移,北方干旱加剧的同时,南方干旱明显加重,尤其是大旱范围明显增加。中国干旱范围主要在黄河流域以南和长江以北地区。干旱频次北方高于南方,东部高于西部,长江流域以北干旱频次较高。中国干旱持续时间较长,而且四季都有可能发生干旱。干旱不仅发生在干旱区和半干旱区,湿润和半湿润区域也常有干旱发生。不同年代、不同区域干旱发生的程度、持续时间和频次有一定的差异。中国20世纪90年代中后期至21世纪初期干旱范围最广、持续时间最长,造成的损失最严重。中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间南北差异性显著。气候变暖后,中国干旱强度加重、范围扩大、频次增加和持续时间增加明显。     

利用旱涝县次建立历史时期旱涝指数序列的试验*

本文利用27万条自然灾害史料记载,整理出我国东部及南部85个地区的受灾县次记录,分析了这些记录的可靠性,建立了这些地区1471—1950年的旱涝指数序列,并以北京地区为例,详细说明了利用旱涝县次建立旱涝指数序列的过程,分析了这种方法的可靠性。     

腾格里沙漠南缘近315年5～6月PDSI指数变化

利用昌灵山早材宽度年表重建腾格里沙漠南缘在过去315 a的5～6月份PDSI指数变化,重建方程的方差解释量达42.0%。腾格里沙漠南缘5～6月的PDSI指数重建序列平均值为-0.32。腾格里沙漠南缘5～6月的PDSI指数重建序列对西北地区干旱极端历史事件有良好的响应。空间分析显示腾格里沙漠南缘5～6月的PDSI指数重建序列与亚洲季风尾闾区PDSI指数的变化比较一致,同时还与西北地区的多条PDSI指数重建序列有着良好的相关性。腾格里沙漠南缘5～6月的PDSI指数重建序列具有25 a(95%)、12 a(95%)、3.4 a(99%)、2.8 a(99%)、2.6 a(99%)、2.3 a(95%)的周期变化。     

RUNAWAY FIRES,SMOKE‐HAZE POLLUTION,AND UNNATURAL DISASTERS IN INDONESIA*

ABSTRACT. Fires on Sumatra and Kalimantan have taken a heavy toll on Indonesia' remaining tropical forests. Drought exacerbates the fire hazard, but it does not cause the fires, most of which have been the result of inappropriate land‐use policies and practices. Peatland fires have emitted vast quantities of smoke that periodically blanket large parts of insular Southeast Asia, impairing visibility, disrupting travel, hampering economic activity, and posing serious health risks. The development agenda of Indonesia' New Order regime paid scant attention to forest management, including the need to detect, control, and suppress unwanted fires.     

Flooding 1990s along the Yangtze River, has it concern of global warming?

There were a series of severe floods along the middle to lower reaches of the Yangtze River (Changjiang River) in China during the 1990s. The extensive summer (June, July and August) precipitation is mostly responsible for the flooding. The summer rainfall in the 1980s and the 1990s is much higher than that in the previous 3 decades. The means for 1990-1999 is +87.62 mm above normal, marked the 1990s the wettest decade since the 1950s. Six stations with a time span of 1880-1999 are selected to establish century -long rainfall series. This series also shows that the 1990s is the wettest decade during the last 120 years. In the wettest 12 years, four occurred in the 1990s (1991,1996,1998 and 1999). Both global and China’s temperature show there is a relative lower air temperature during the 1960-1970s, and a rapid warming in the 1980-1990s. Comparisons of rainfall between 1960-1979 and 1980-1999 show there are dramatic changes. In the cold period 1960-1979, the summer rainfall along the Yangtze River is 3.8 % to 4.7 % below the normal, during the warm period 1980-1999, over 8.4 % to 18.2 % of summer rainfall occurs. Over the whole eastern China, the summer rainfall shows opposite spatial patterns from the 1960-1970s to 1980-1990s. The consistent trend toward more rainfall with global warming is also presented by the greenhouse scenario modeling. A millennial Drought/flood Index for the middle to lower reaches of the Yangtze River showed that although the surplus summer rainfall in the 1990s is the severest during the past 150 years, it is not outstanding in the context of past millennium. Power spectra of the Drought/flood Index show significant interdecadal periods at 33.3 and 11.8 years. Thus, both the natural inter-decadal variations and the global warming may play important roles in the frequent floods witnessed during the last two decades.     

Meteorological and Streamflow Droughts: Characteristics,Trends, and Propagation in the Milwaukee River Basin

This study examined meteorological and streamflow droughts for the period from 1951 to 2006 using the Milwaukee River basin in Wisconsin as the study area in an effort to improve the understanding of drought propagation. Specifically, this study aimed to answer the following research questions: (1) What are the temporal trends of meteorological and streamflow droughts identified by drought indicators? (2) How do the drought indicators manifest drought propagation? Meteorological droughts were identified using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and streamflow droughts were identified using a threshold-level approach. The intensity and duration of both types of drought were found to have decreased over time, most likely due to increasing precipitation. Therefore, in the study area, and likely in the larger region, drought has become of less concern. The propagation of meteorological drought into streamflow drought was detected generally after moderate and severe sequences of negative EDI that eventually led to extreme meteorological drought events. The study finds that both EDI and the threshold-level approach are effective in diagnosing meteorological and streamflow drought events of all durations.     

干旱对河西走廊植被净初级生产力的影响

干旱对生态系统碳循环具有重要影响,随着气候变暖,全球干旱事件频率不断上升,研究干旱对植被净初级生产力的影响具有重要意义.提高植被净初级生产力(NPP)的时间分辨率是认识干旱对其影响机制的重要途径.基于5天NDVI遥感数据,以河西走廊为研究区,利用CASA模型估算2010-2015年5天步长尺度的NPP,将5天降水为零定...     

宁夏农业干旱灾害综合风险分析

农业干旱灾害风险分析是农业防灾减灾的重要内容。本文以灾害风险理论为基础,构建宁夏农业干旱灾害综合风险评估模式,该模式综合考虑了干旱致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力4类风险影响因素,并在GIS技术的支持下,完成宁夏农业干旱灾害风险区划。结果表明：宁夏各地农业干旱灾害风险差异较大,风险较高的区域集中在宁夏中南部山区的同心、海原、固原、西吉、彭阳等地,风险较低的区域集中在北部大部分地区以及南部泾源、隆德等地,这一结果与宁夏各地环境特点、经济投入、农业发展现状和趋势一致。     

A diatom-based reconstruction of drought intensity, duration, and frequency from Moon Lake, North Dakota: a sub-decadal record of the last 2300 years

Diatom assemblages preserved in sediment cores from closed-basin lakes can provide high-resolution records of past hydrologic and climatic conditions, including long-term patterns in the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts. At Moon Lake, a closed-basin lake in eastern North Dakota, a comparison of diatom-inferred salinity and the precipitation-based Bhalme-Mooley Drought Index (BMDI) over the last 100 years was highly significant, suggesting that the diatom record contains a sensitive archive of past climatic conditions. A sub-decadal record of inferred salinity for the past 2300 years indicates that extreme droughts of greater intensity than those during the 1930s 'Dust Bowl' were more frequent prior to A.D. 1200. This high frequency of extreme droughts persisted for centuries and was most pronounced from A.D. 200–370, A.D. 700–850 and A.D. 1000–1200. A pronounced shift to generally wetter conditions with less severe droughts of shorter duration occured at A.D. 1200. This abrupt change coincided with the end of the 'Medieval Warm Period' (A.D. 1000–1200) and the onset of the 'Little Ice Age' (A.D. 1300–1850).     

2010年春季西南地区干旱遥感监测及其影响评估

利用国产环境减灾星多光谱、热红外数据以及美国中分辨率MODIS数据建立了2010 年春季我国西南地区的干旱及其影响的遥感监测与评估方法。主要包括：1) 旱情遥感监测,利用环境减灾星多光谱数据和热红外数据构建旱情遥感综合指数监测西南地区的旱情;2) 地表可用水资源遥感监测,主要利用2010 年3 月中旬及去年同期的多光谱数据,对位于云南、贵州、广西境内的三个典型水体的水面面积进行了动态监测,以评估地表水面面积及水位的变化;3) 干旱对农作物的影响,主要通过农作物生长过程曲线分析各省(市) 区的作物受旱情的影响过程,并利用耕地面积与遥感监测作物种植成数、分类成数,以及耕地受旱比例计算作物受旱面积,通过田间实验对不同生育期冬小麦受到水分胁迫条件下的减产结果,确定不同旱情等级对应的粮食减产比例,计算各省(市) 的冬小麦减产数量。结果表明旱情最严重区域在广西西北部、贵州西南部和云南的中部与东北部,冬小麦、油菜、甘蔗等作物生长过程受到明显抑制,受旱面积分别达到9.13×10⁵ hm²、5.43×10⁵ hm²与9.00×10⁵ hm²,冬小麦产量损失达到8.3×10⁵ t,约占2009 年四省市冬小麦总产量的13.7%、全国冬小麦总产量的0.8%和全国粮食总产量的0.16%,对我国粮食总产量影响不大,但云南和贵州的冬小麦减产分别达到48%和31%,对区域粮食供应影响较大。     

地理学视角的干旱传播概念、特征与影响因素研究进展

从地理学视角理解干旱传播时空维概念内涵,沿着“概念界定—特征量化—过程描述”这条主线全面揭示干旱传播特征、模式与机制及其研究现状,对于深刻理解干旱发展始终全过程中干旱演变过程与驱动因素具有重要的理论意义。论文首先从地理学时空完备性进行干旱传播概念界定;分析干旱传播的时空两维特征并归纳其研究思路与方法;探究干旱传播的主要影响因素;并归纳出基于“特征—过程—机制”的干旱传播研究框架与展望。通过梳理国内外文献并综述表明,干旱传播具有时空维概念与特征,其主要受下垫面因素(水系特征)、气候变化与人类活动(土地利用行为)控制。目前,干旱传播主要集中于干旱传播时间维度上的滞后性特征及传播概率研究,在探索其空间维度特征、演绎干旱传播过程并揭示其驱动机制方面尚有不足。揭示气象干旱、水文干旱、农业干旱至社会经济干旱形成与演变的过程机制和规律是干旱研究的重要内容,是制定高效的御旱抗旱措施的首要前提,从地理学视角揭示干旱传播概念内涵并探究其特征与过程机制应是干旱研究的题中要义。     

Attribution of trends in meteorological drought during 1960–2016 over the Loess Plateau,China

This study uses two forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI), namely the PDSI_TH(potential evapotranspiration estimated-by the Thornthwaite equation) and the PDSI_PM(potential evapotranspiration estimated by the FAO Penman-Monteith equation), to characterize the meteorological drought trends during 1960–2016 in the Loess Plateau(LP) and its four subregions. By designing a series of numerical experiments, we mainly investigated various climatic factors' contributions to the drought trends at annual, summer, and autumn time scales. Overall, the drying trend in the PDSI_TH is much larger than that in the PDSI_PM. The former is more sensitive to air temperature than precipitation, while the latter is the most sensitive to precipitation among all meteorological factors. Increasing temperature results in a decreasing trend(drying) in the PDSI_TH, which is further aggravated by decreasing precipitation, jointly leading to a relatively severe drying trend. For the PDSI_PM that considers more comprehensive climatic factors, the drying trend is partly counteracted by the declining wind speed and solar radiation. Therefore, the PDSI_PM ultimately shows a much smaller drying trend in the past decades.     

Late Holocene dune migration on the south Texas sand sheet

There are a wide variety of vegetated, eolian depositional landforms associated with the south Texas sand sheet, attesting to the past dominance of eolian processes. Mapping identified two sets of parabolic dunes elongating with winds from the southeast and the northwest. Parabolic dunes elongated by northwesterly winds are older than ca. 200 years and may be associated with eolian depositional events ca. 2700 and/or 2000 years ago. The latest dune migration event, associated with southeasterly winds occurred ca. 200 years ago and at one site is inset into northwesterly-extended parabolic dunes. This period of dune migration may be coincident with particularly severe drought identified in the tree-ring record centered at AD 1790, when the Palmer Drought Severity Index was − 4. A threshold of dune movement may have occurred ca. in the 11th, 15th and 20th centuries when there are two or more consecutive years with a Palmer Drought Severity Index of < − 4, corresponding to 30–50% reduction in precipitation. Dune systems on Coastal Plain of Texas to reactivated repeatedly due to climate variability in the past 3000 years.     

我国荒漠化现状、成因与防治对策

我国荒漠化土地面积大,分布范围广,发展程度高,危害严重。目前,荒漠化防治虽然取得了一定成绩,但是,只是在局部地区荒漠化土地得到了一定程度治理,我国荒漠化整体仍在加速扩展,且有进一步加重的趋势,荒漠化防治面临的形势非常严峻。气候干旱化是现代荒漠化发生、发展的基本背景条件,人口的快速增长和生产经营方式落后导致人类对资源的不合理开发利用,是我国现代荒漠化加速扩展的主要原因,其主要表现形式是滥垦、滥牧、滥樵、滥采、滥用水资源和滥开矿等。以防为主,以治理保开发,以开发促治理,寓治理于开发中,防、治、用有机结合,是根治荒漠化,实现荒漠化地区人口、资源与环境协调发展的根本途径。为加快荒漠化治理速度,国家应对荒漠化地区给予政策扶持。     

Annual variation in PDSI since 1897 AD in the Tengger Desert,Inner Mongolia,China, as recorded by tree-ring data

Tree-ring data can be used to provide high-resolution records of climate variability in areas like the Tengger Desert where few other records exist. In the present work, three tree-ring-width chronologies in the Luoshan Mountains in north-western China showed synchronous variation. These were averaged to develop a comprehensive chronology that was then used to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) since 1897 AD for the grid point N 38°45′, E 103°45′ in the Tengger Desert. The annual PDSI and tree-ring widths in the Changlingshan Mountains at the southern margin of the Tengger Desert matched well (r = 0.50, p < 0.001), indicating the reliability of the reconstruction. The annual PDSI dry and wet periods were consistent with recorded lake sediments in the northern Mu Us Desert. The dry periods in the Tengger Desert were compatible with the relatively low PDSI in the Ortindag Sand Land in eastern Inner Mongolia. Abrupt climate variability occurred around 1922, 1933, 1934, 1935 and 1936, in line with abrupt changes in the Asian monsoon system in the 1930s. Distinct periods of about 2–4 years and 5–7 years were evident in the reconstructed PDSI.     

Climatological Drought in Arizona: An Analysis of Indicators for Guiding the Governor's Drought Task Force

Lacking a federal policy to address local water deficiencies within the United States, many states have developed their own methods for monitoring drought in an effort to mitigate its effects. This article provides an overview of efforts to standardize the use of drought indices in order to compare recent and historical drought both spatially and temporally for Arizona. Yearly averages of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index are placed into a frequency distribution to create standardization among the indices. The 1896–1904 drought ranked as the most severe, although the 1996–2004 drought was a close second.     

开封市西郊地层“崇祯大旱”事件的孢粉记录

根据开封市西郊9 m岩芯样品的孢粉分析,结合AMS¹⁴C测年、粒度分析和历史文献,揭示区域植被对“崇祯大旱”事件的响应。结果表明,岩芯深度0~1.8 m为20世纪中叶的黄河灌淤层和近期堆垫层,1.8~4 m和4~7.8 m分别为1841年和1642-1644年的黄泛沉积;岩芯存在7.8~9 m、5~7.8 m、2~5 m和0~2 m等4个孢粉带,其中5~7.8 m的孢粉带记录了明末“崇祯大旱”事件。该层段下段（6.7~7.8 m）为黄泛早期沉积物,木本植物花粉减少至整个岩芯的最低值,而藜科花粉比例显著升高并占据绝对优势,同时还伴随有旱生植物白刺属和麻黄属花粉出现,蒲公英属和菊科等耐旱植物花粉含量也相对较高,指示一次干旱事件;上段（5~6.7 m）为黄泛后期沉积物,木本植物尤其是松属花粉含量较高,而藜科等旱生植物花粉相对较少,可能是由于松属等木本植物花粉悬浮能力强而被洪水携带至下游,在水流缓慢或近于滞流时沉积,再加上洪水过后黄泛地面接受当地源、区域源和区域外源花粉的缘故。