云南莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂带面积—高程积分的构造地貌研究

笔者等基于ASTER GDEM数据,提取莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂带集水区,计算该区亚流域盆地的面积—高程积分值,并结合野外剖面特征、历史地震、断裂构造特征及活动特征等,初步探讨了莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂带的构造地貌特征及其动力学机制。得到以下几点认识：(1)研究区除鲁甸盆地外,大部分地区的地貌发育阶段为壮年期;(2)研究区面积—高程积分值(HI)主要受控于构造活动,岩性的抗侵蚀性和水系侵蚀发挥局部或次要作用;(3)面积—高程积分值(HI)对研究区不同构造抬升强度地区的响应方式不同：构造强烈抬升区,HI值反映了集水流域受到强烈的构造抬升和侵蚀的共同作用;构造抬升减弱区,HI值反映了缓慢的构造隆升和沉积作用的共同结果。     

云南莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂带面积—高程积分的构造地貌研究

笔者等基于ASTER GDEM数据,提取莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂带集水区,计算该区亚流域盆地的面积—高程积分值,并结合野外剖面特征、历史地震、断裂构造特征及活动特征等,初步探讨了莲峰、昭通—鲁甸断裂带的构造地貌特征及其动力学机制。得到以下几点认识：① 研究区除鲁甸盆地外,大部分地区的地貌发育阶段为壮年期;② 研究区面积—高程积分值（HI）主要受控于构造活动,岩性的抗侵蚀性和水系侵蚀发挥局部或次要作用;③ 面积—高程积分值（HI）对研究区不同构造抬升强度地区的响应方式不同：构造强烈抬升区,HI值反映了集水流域受到强烈的构造抬升和侵蚀的共同作用;构造抬升减弱区,HI值反映了缓慢的构造隆升和沉积作用的共同结果。     

岷县地震（MS 6.6）指纹法临震预测

2013年7月22日7时45分,在甘肃定西市岷县和漳县交界处（34.5°N,104.2°E）发生了MS 6.6级地震,震源深度20 km,死亡95人,伤1 366人,经济损失达210亿元。文中回顾利用第一作者独创的指纹法对于此次地震做出临震预测的过程与依据,并探讨发震断裂与发震机制。利用SW地震前兆监测仪（简称SW仪）,输出地磁分量、地电分量、地应力分量、谐振分量、地倾斜分量等9通道或15通道异常分量时间曲线,当压缩时间轴,就可以输出不同的异常几何图像。不同地区的地震具有不同的前兆几何图像。相同地区的地震具有相同或相似的前兆几何图像。因此,可以根据特定前兆几何图像,找到将要发生地震的震中位置。这就相当于每个人都有特定指纹,根据指纹可以找到对应的人。所以,利用SW仪输出图像预测地震的方法称为指纹法。按照7年来对于前兆图像与对应指纹之间关系的观测,一般是提前6天收到临震指纹信号。震级预测则需要对于同通道指纹波幅进行比较与计算。于是,指纹法创造出单台站预测全球地震三要素的奇迹。作为专家内部交流,2013年7月15日10：45,根据2013年7月14日第五通道指纹与2013年6月2日同通道指纹的对比,文章第一作者预测2013年7月19日,甘肃（35.19°N, 103.69°E）将发生MS 5.1级地震。2013年7月22日定西市岷县MS 6.6级地震表明,预测震中准确,发震时间比预测时间仅仅延迟3天,震级比预测值大1.5级,总体上是一次成功的临震预测。构造背景、地壳结构和震源机制研究认为,临潭-礼县左行逆冲活动断裂是定西岷县地震的发震断裂。中地壳低速（高导）层尖端与临潭-礼县左行逆冲断裂接合部位是流变界面能量释放的震源位置,为板内地震三层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例。     

尼玛地震(MS 5.2)临震预测和流变构造

俄罗斯科学院西伯利亚分院克拉斯诺亚尔斯克科学中心特殊技术设计局Sibgatulin于2013年5月7日11时55分,将天然电磁脉冲异常信息及分析意见通报给文章第一作者曾佐勋,指出在武汉的东、西两个方向上,具有发生MS 6级左右地震的可能性。2013年5月7日22时20分,山东平原县职业中专宋松将其与宋科夫根据震兆日晕结合“七式、六形还原测震法”做出的地震预测意见通报了曾佐勋。意见中指出,2013年5月7-20日左右（甚至会在7天内）,在新疆、青海、与西藏交界附近,将发生MS 5.5~6.2的地震。在Sibgatulin和宋松等人的预测基础上,利用卫星热红外排气点观测法,曾佐勋于2013年5月8日0时54分,向宋松、王杰、潘黎黎发出预测意见。预测10日内有可能在西藏的排气点（31.5°N,89.0°E）发生MS 6.0级左右地震,并于5月8日8时34分,向3人补充了另一排气点（31°N,86°E）的观测情况。2013年5月15日18:54:30,西藏那曲尼玛县（31.6°N,86.5°E）发生MS 5.2级中强震,震源深度为10 km。此次地震的发震时间落入宋松和曾佐勋的预测窗口;震中落入曾佐勋根据第二个排气点给出的预测范围;震级基本上落入Sibgatulin、宋松、宋科夫以及曾佐勋的预测范围。尼玛地震临震预测成功的意义在于这是一次两国三方合作的范例,也进一步验证了“地震预测需要多方法的综合分析”的认识。对该地区地壳结构剖面和活动断裂研究表明,此次地震的发震断层为来多-措迈北北西向右行走滑正断层;地震能量的积聚和存储与中地壳高导低速层关系密切;西藏地区断层活动受南北向挤压、东西向拉伸的现今构造应力场控制。     

台湾南投地震（MS 6.7）短期预测、中期预测和流变构造分析

回顾了不同方法对于台湾南投（MS 6.7）地震的成功中期预测和短期预测, 分析了南投地震的构造背景及发震机制。根据太阳黑子数为主要参数的太阳活动度分析,曾小苹和林云芳于2013年4月预测2013年台湾高雄-南投-花莲一带,将发生MS 7.0地震。2013年5月12日,沈宗丕和林命周根据“磁暴月相二倍法” 做了一个短期和临震预测：2013年6月19日前后5天或10天左右,台湾省或邻近海域在内的地震带可能发生一次MS 7.5~8.0级左右的大地震。2013年5月26日,张建国向部分专家通报了基于他自创的全球地震天象干支序列预测图谱做出的中期预测: 发震时间为2013年4月24日-2014年2月10日（高危时区为阴历4-5月）;预测地区为嘉义-台南-南投-云林（23.0°~23.4°~24.0°N,120.0°~120.6°~121.2°E）;预测震级为MS 6.2~6.6~7.2。利用地震云和云地映对分析和陈界宏的磁异常交点,2013年5月26日23：55,重庆万州吴达兵预测在2013年6月中旬以前台湾云地映对地区（24°±0.2°N,121°± 0.2 °E）将发生ML 6.2±0.4地震。2013年5月27日,黄建文明确发出台湾南投应力集中警报;5月29日,又发布强应力集中持续增强特别警报。2013年6月2日13:43,台湾南投（23.87°N,121.00°E）发生MS 6.7（ML 6.3）地震,震源深度9 km。发震时间落入吴达兵的短期预测区间;落入张建国的高危时区（阴历4-5月）;比沈宗丕和林命周预测的短期预测时间范围提前7天;分别落入曾小苹和林云芳的中期预测范围。震中位置与吴达兵的预测完全一致;与陈界宏磁异常交点基本一致;准确落入张建国的预测区间;与曾小苹和林云芳的预测地区一致。震级与吴达兵的预测震级高度一致;落入张建国的中期预测范围;与曾小苹和林云芳的震级预测基本一致。经过对比可以看出,吴达兵的短期预测、张建国的中期预测、曾小苹和林云芳的中期预测都是成功的。沈宗丕和林命周的时间预测是基本成功的。构造分析、震源机制解和卫星重力异常分析结果表明：屈尺-潮州逆冲断裂是南投地震发震构造;南投地震的发生与菲律宾板块向NWW入欧亚板块中下地壳并使台湾中央山脉向其西侧台湾海峡盆地逆冲有关,是卫星重力异常梯度带或地壳密度陡变带边缘与盆山边界断裂带交汇处积累的能量突然释放的结果。     

三峡库区巴东地震(Ms5.1)成因机制及次声波信号

2013年12月16日三峡库区巴东发生M_s5.1地震.根据eigen-6c2模型研究了巴东地区的8-638阶卫星重力异常, 结果表明: 该地区场源深度为10 km的地壳为局部重力低异常, 反映了该处物质密度较周围偏低, 形成低密度层.同时, 研究了该地区速度结构剖面, 结果表明: 巴东地区地壳5~9 km及10~15 km深处存在上下两个低速层, 上部低速层与水库渗水有关, 下部低速层与地幔热流体的上涌有关.低密度层和低速层的确定为韧性流变层的存在提供了证据.巴东地震是地壳深部能量的长期集聚与突发释放, 属构造地震.然而, 库水下渗引起的上部低速异常降低了断层活动的阈值, 震前库水载荷的变化对此次巴东地震的发生起到了触发作用.通过对比次声波和地震波, 我们得出次声波仪记录到的异常信号为本地次声波.      

鲁甸、景谷、康定地震预测的原理、方法及其意义

继中长期预测了芦山地震之后,笔者中期预测了鲁甸、景谷和康定地震。例如,鲁甸地震的预测震级为7级左右或6.5级以上(实为里氏6.5级),地点为北纬26°~29°、东经101.5°~105°(实际震中北纬27.1°,东经103.3°),发震时间可能是2014年5月至2015年5月(实际为2014年8月3日)。本文总结了鲁甸、景谷、康定地震和陆内地震热流体物理综合预测的原理、方法和步骤;阐明了在开放复杂地球系统多级物质循环热构造背景下,大陆地壳非均匀流动("热河")过程中热能的源、汇、释过程与热灾害链及其地震之间的关系;提出了根据热灾害链时空结构和活动"热河"地震空区相结合进行长期和中期地震预测,与根据热流体直接和间接前兆异常开展立体监测和短临地震预测有机结合的新思路。根据当前热灾害链的演变规律和异动"热河"地震空区分布,进一步分析了西南和华北地震的发展形势,强调华北(特别是东北)的震情极为严峻,短临地震监测和预测已刻不容缓。     

云南迪庆5.9级地震构造背景、深部流变结构与发震机制

2013年8月31日8时4分, 云南省迪庆藏族自治州香格里拉县(28.12°N, 99.4°E)发生5.9级地震, 震源深度10 km.区域范围内历史地震频繁, 为滇西北地震多发区.据震源机制解结果, 此次地震为正断兼左旋走滑型地震, NW向截面产状与德钦-香格里拉-中甸断裂基本吻合.利用EIGEN-6C2模型对震中附近进行布格重力异常探讨, 震源位置位于莫霍面起伏部位, 下部地壳厚度不稳定之处; 而从P波速度与地壳结构剖面可知研究区上地壳底部存在低速层, 认为韧性低速层与地震能量的积聚和存储关系密切.而韧性低速(高导)层与德钦-中甸断裂交接部位, 是流变界面能量释放的位置, 即本次地震的震源位置.这为板内地震3层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例.      

2013年云南香格里拉、德钦-四川得荣交界5.9级地震灾害及发震构造

2013年8月28日、31日, 云南迪庆藏族自治州香格里拉县、德钦县、四川省甘孜藏族自治州得荣县交界地区连续发生5.1级、5.9级地震.为了查明此次地震的影响破坏程度, 进行了地震现场建筑物震害考察并对震中附近断裂进行了野外构造地质剖面调查.两次地震在短时间内并在相近位置连续发生, 造成了此次云南香格里拉、德钦-四川得荣交界地震比以往同级地震的破坏程度要高, 地震烈度最高为Ⅷ级, 有感范围大, 5.9级地震宏观震中大致处在整个灾区破坏最严重的奔子栏镇争古村一带(28.20°N, 99.36°E), 距离地震微观震中约5.1km.等震线沿德钦-中甸断裂呈北西向分布, 近似为椭球状, 结合此次地震震中附近区域现场断裂调查、震源机制解数据以及地震余震空间分布特征, 初步推断此次地震的发震构造为德钦-中甸断层, 其主要表现为一次以正断为主兼有左旋走滑错动的地震事件.      

测井约束地震岩性预测方法及应用——以汤原断陷达连河组SD2 段为例

为精细刻画汤原断陷达连河组的岩性展布, 运用测井约束地震岩性预测方法, 利用研究区丰富的井震及钻井资料, 拟合速度- 岩性间的函数关系, 经高精度层序地层约束后, 进行岩性预测。预测结果符合率达86% , 揭示了目的层岩性空间展布规律: 沉积厚度高值区和砂体厚度中心主要分布于控盆断裂一侧, 在研究区内主要分布于靠近盆缘断裂的东部凹陷带。     

鲁甸MS 6.5 地震发震断层地表破裂特征、相关古地震的发现和年代测定

鲁甸M_S 6.5级地震发生后,余震分布呈现两个优势方向,其发震断层是NE向的昭通-鲁甸断裂,还是NW向的次级断裂,引起了广泛的讨论。详细的野外调查发现,从龙头山镇南东方向的谢家营盘-光明村-王家坡一线N22°W~N55°W走向断续展布长约8 km地表破裂带,呈左行右阶排列,伴有30~35 cm左右的走滑分量,局部走滑分量达40~60 cm,表明此次地震的发震构造为北西走向的包谷垴-小河断裂。探槽工程揭露出发震构造光明村-小垭口段4次古地震事件;8个炭屑样品的14C测年分析表明,事件E1可能发生在9190-8870 BC,E2为1000 BC至900 AD,E3为910-1240 AD,最新一次事件E4为2014年鲁甸MS 6.5级地震。该研究表明,云南地区6.5级强震可以产生地表破裂并可能在地质记录中留下遗迹。结合本次地表破裂特征,影像几何不连续以及探槽剖面揭露出古地震断面信息容易隐形等特征表明,包谷垴-小河断裂在历史活动中强度不大,属中强地震发震构造。     

A Characteristic Analysis of the Dynamic Evolution of Preseismic- Coseismic-Postseismic Interferometric Deformation Fields Associated with the M 7.9 Earthquake of Mani, Tibet in 1997

By using the D-InSAR technique,we have acquired the temporal-spatial evolution images of preseismic-cosesimci-postseismic interferometric deformation fields associated with the M 7.9 earthquake of Mani,Tibet on 8 November 1997.The analysis of these images reveals the relationships between the temporal-spatial evolution features of the interferometric deformation fields and locking, rupturing,and elastic restoring of the source rupture plane,which represent the processes of strain accumulation,strain release,and postseismic restoration.The result shows that 10 months prior to the Mani event,a left-lateral shear trend appeared in the seismic area,which was in accordance with the earthquake fault in nature.The quantity of local deformation on the north wall was slightly larger than that on the south wall,and the deformation distribution area of the north wall was relatively large.With the event impending,the deformation of the south wall varied increasingly,and the deformation center shifted eastward.Two and half monthd before the event,the west side of the fault was still locked while the east side began to slide,implying that the whole fault would rupture at any moment.These features can be regarded as short-term precursors to this earthquake.Within the period from 16 April 1996 to two and half months before the earthquake,the most remarkable deformation zones appeared in the north and south walls,which were parallel to and about 40 km apart from the fault,with accumulated local displacements of 344 mm and 251 mm on the north and south walls,respectively.The south wall was the active one with larger displacements.Five months after the earthquake,the distribution feature of interferometric fringes was just opposite to that prior to the event,expressing evident right-lateral shear.The recovered displacements are～179 mm on the north wall and～79 mm on the south wall,close to the east side of the fault.However,in the area of the south wall far from the fault there still existed a trend of sinistral motion.The deformation of the north wall was small but recovered fast in a larger area,while the active south wall began to recover from the east section of the fault toward the WSW.     

地壳放气动态监测与张北—尚义Ms6.2级地震预报

笔者从新的地球观出发,论述地壳放气与地震活动的关系,及其在张北－尚义Ｍｓ６．２级地震中短期,短临预报中应用,认为地震是可以预报的。因此,笔者提出地震预报探索中应加强地壳放气动态监测与研究,特别是加强断层带土壤气ＣＯ２、Ｈ２,Ｈｅ与Ｈｇ动态监测的观点。     

The Deep Geophysical Structure of the Middle Section of the Longmen Mountains Tectonic Belt and its Relation to the Wenchuan Earthquake

Investigation of the deep geophysical structure of the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt and its relation to the Wenchuan Earthquake is important for the study of earthquakes. By using magnetotelluric sounding profiles of the Luqu–Zhongjiang and Anxian–Suining; seismic sounding profiles of the Sichuan Maowen–Chongqing Gongtan, the Qinghai Huashi Gorge–Sichuan Jianyang, and the Batang–Zizhong; and magnetogravimetric data of the Longmen Mountains region, the deep geophysical structure of the Songpan–Ganzi block, the western Sichuan foreland basin, and the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt and their relation was discussed. The eastward extrusion of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau thrusts the Songpan–Ganzi block upon the Yangtze block, which obstructs the eastward movement of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The Maoxian–Wenchuan, Beichuan–Yingxiu, and Anxian–Guanxian faults of the Longmen Mountains fault belt dip to northwest with different dip angles and gradually converge in the deeper parts. Geophysical structure suggests that an intracrustal low-velocity, low-resistivity, and high-conductivity layer is common between the middle and upper crust west of the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt but not in the upper Yangtze block. The Sichuan Basin has a thick low-resistance sedimentary layer on a stable high-resistance basement; moreover, there are secondary paleohighs and depression structures at the lower part of the western Sichuan foreland basin with characteristic of high magnetic anomalies, whereas the Songpan–Ganzi block has a high resisitivity cover of upper crust and continues to a low-resistance layer. Considering the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt as the boundary, there are Bouguer gravity anomalies of "one belt between two zones." Thus, we infer that there is a corresponding relation between the inferred crystalline basement of the Songpan block and the underlying basin basement of the Longmen Mountains fault belt. Furthermore, there may be an extensive ancient Yangtze block, which is west of the Ruoergai block. In addition, the crust–mantle ductile shear zone under the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt is the main fault, whereas the Beichuan–Yingxiu and Anxian–Guanxian faults at the surface are earthquake faults. The Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake might be attributed to the collision of the Yangtze block and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The eastward obduction of the eastern edge of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and eastward subduction of its deeper part under the influence of the collision of the Indian, Pacific, and Philippine Plates with the Eurasia Plate might have caused the Longmen Mountains tectonic belt to cut the Moho and extend to the middle and upper crust; thus, creating high stress concentration and rapid energy release zone.     

The Seismogenic Structure and Deformation Mechanism of the Lushan (Mw 6.6) Earthquake,Sichuan, China

On April 20 th, 2013, an earthquake of magnitude MW 6.6 occurred at Lushan of Sichuan on the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, with no typical coseismic surface rupture. This work plotted an isoseismal map of the earthquake after repositioning over 400 post–earthquake macro–damage survey points from peak ground acceleration(PGA) data recorded by the Sichuan Digital Strong Earthquake Network. This map indicates that the Lushan earthquake has a damage intensity of IX on the Liedu scale, and that the meizoseismal area displays an oblate ellipsoid shape, with its longitudinal axis in the NE direction. No obvious directivity was detected. Furthermore, the repositioning results of 3323 early aftershocks, seismic reflection profiles and focal mechanism solutions suggests that the major seismogenic structure of the earthquake was the Dayi Fault, which partly defines the eastern Mengshan Mountain. This earthquake resulted from the thrusting of the Dayi Fault, and caused shortening of the southern segment of the Longmenshan in the NW–SE direction. Coseismal rupture was also produced in the deep of the Xinkaidian Fault. Based on the above seismogenic model and the presentation of coseismic surface deformation, it is speculated that there is a risk of more major earthquakes occurring in this region.     

Structure and peculiarities of the seismic regime in the source zone of the Takoe earthquake on September 1, 2001 (M W 5.2)

The Takoe earthquake (M _W 5.2) occurred between two en-echelon segments of the active Aprelovskii fault on September 1, 2001, and was accompanied by an earthquake swarm, which was successfully recorded by a local network of digital seismic stations located on the southern part of Sakhalin Island. Modern methods were applied to relocate the parameters of the sources for the earthquake swarm event and significantly specify their spatial distribution and relations to the structural-geological features of the complex system of interacting faults. New data on the correlation between the source mechanism and the modern geodynamic setting in the southern part of Sakhalin were obtained.     

Risk Assessment and Treatment Countermeasures for the Barrier Lakes of Wenchuan Earthquake on May 12~(th),2008

This paper introduced the first hand investigation results of the risk and treatment measures for the barrier lakes triggered by the earthquake of Wenchuan.Characteristics of 10 barrier lakes were investigated and analyzed;procedure and methods for barrier lake treatment were brought forward.The dams of the barrier lakes can be classified as two classes:block rock in the south and loose deposit in the north.All the barrier dams were stable at the time of investigation,but water drainage channel needed to...