深时古气候对未来气候变化的启示

当前人类活动引起大气中二氧化碳(CO_2)的浓度逐渐升高,地球气候可能将发生不可逆的变化,从目前的冰室气候进入温室气候状态。文中通过对现在地球气候系统与深时温室气候时期的大气CO_2浓度与气候变化临界点、温度与温度梯度、海平面变化与水循环、大洋水体氧化还原状态几个方面进行对比和分析,提出对地球在这种温室气候状态中的气候动力系统的认识亟待提高。尽管深时温室气候并不严格等同于未来地球的气候,但深时时期形成的地质记录为我们提供了全尺度洞察在温室气候状态下地球系统是如何运行的一个天然实验室。     

Surface temperature forecast skill comparison for the west coast of Saudi Arabia

Given the growing interest of the general public in accessing commercial weather forecasts through various media outlets and the available impetuses for promoting tourism in Saudi Arabia (SA), a first attempt is made to present a forecast skill comparison for surface temperature in four cities (Wejh, Yenbo, Jeddah, and Gizan) along the west coast of SA, for the 61-day transitional period (from January 16 to March 16) between the December-January-February (DJF) and the March-April-May (MAM) seasons. A simple skill score comparison method is used to assess the next-day city forecasts for surface temperature from six commercial weather forecast providers based on the operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs. All the NWP model forecast providers performed better than the respective daily climatology (Clm) for each station. Depending upon the station and the provider, the absolute average maximum daily surface temperature difference between the forecasts and the observations was less than 2 °C. Daily surface temperature forecasts from two versions of an atmospheric-ocean general circulation model are also compared to assess their performance for these coastal locations.     

Population density pattern and change in the city of Riyadh,Saudi Arabia

"This paper examines and assesses the changes in the population density pattern in the city of Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia where the city has undergone dramatic changes in its physical as well as its social structure. Analysis of data revealed a decline in population density at an exponential rate from the city center with variation between city sectors and zones. The city's rapid horizontal expansion and dispersal of population is the result of factors such as increases in city population and in size and number of single family dwellings, widening of streets, rise in income and residential mobility rates, mass use of automobiles, change in family size, zoning regulations, leapfrogging, and huge governmental city development projects."     

Population density pattern and change in the City of Riyadh,Saudi Arabia

This paper examines and assesses changes in the population density pattern in the city of Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia where the city has undergone dramatic changes in its physical as well as its social structure. Analysis of data revealed a decline in population density at an exponential rate from the city center with variation between city sectors and zones. The city's rapid horizontal expansion and dispersal of population is the result of factors such as increases in city population and in size and number of single family dwellings, widing of streets, rise in income and residential mobility rates, mass use of automobile, change in family size, zoning regulations, leapfrogging, and huge governmental city development projects. The resulting low population density pattern made it difficult for city officials to provide necessary services and facilities for the dispersed residential development. This paper recommends that city officials make real efforts and workable programs to stop or slow this uneconomical growth by improving quality of life in the central areas to make them residentially desirable by some city residents and reduce the high residential turnover the central area has experienced in last years, and to centralize peripheral growth by planning for self-sufficient satellite communities in outer areas.     

Growth trends and changes in small towns in Saudi Arabia (1974–1993)

This study examines some of the factors affecting growth and change in small towns in Saudi Arabia (1974–1993), namely, their relative location and population size. The study hypothesizes that small town's rate of growth increases with distance from the nearest large city and that small towns' having larger population in 1974 will likely be the ones to grow more in 1993. The research data were obtained from population censuses of 1974 and 1993. Findings indicate that there is a positive but low association between small towns population growth rate and distance from the nearest large city and a strong negative relationship between growth rate and town population size.     

Analyses of precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean region in the context of climate change

This study is focused on the western part of the French Mediterranean area, namely the Pyrénées-Orientales and Aude administrative departments. The water resources (surface and groundwater) in the region are sensitive to climate change. The study addresses the question of whether any trend in the annual and monthly series of temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) already appears at the scale of this region. Two data sources have been used: (a) direct local measurements using the meteorological network; and (b) spatially interpolated data from the French weather service model SAFRAN for the period 1970–2006. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to identify significant trends at the local scale and, because of the natural spatial variability of the Mediterranean climate, regional interpretation was also performed. The trends observed in the 13 catchments of interest are consistent with those observed at a larger scale. An increase in annual mean temperature and annual PET was observed throughout the study area, whereas annual precipitation has not exhibited any trend. The monthly scale has revealed strong seasonal variability in trend. The trend for an increase in monthly PET has been observed mainly in the spring, and has not been seen in the coastal areas. A trend for an increase in monthly temperature has been observed in June and in the spring throughout the entire area. Monthly rainfall has been found to decrease in June and increase in November throughout the area. The significant trends observed in rainfall and temperature seem to be consistent between the different data sources.     

Samarium-neodymium data on two late Proterozoic ophiolites of Saudi Arabia and implications for crustal and mantle evolution

Whole-rock and mineral samples from the Jabal al Wask and Jabal Ess ophiolites, northwestern Saudi Arabia, yield Sm-Nd isochron ages of 743+24 Ma and 782±38 Ma, respectively. These formation ages, which provide maximum limits for possible obduction ages, are in broad but not precise agreement with the previously known geologic history of the Arabian Shield. They indicate that the ophiolitic rocks are roughly coeval with nearby volcanic and plutonic rocks, supporting a back-arc origin for the two ophiolites. We suggest that the Jabal al Wask and Jabal Ess ophiolites were parts of the same northeast-southwest trending ophiolite belt, now offset along the Najd fault system. Initial _Nd values range from +6.6 to+ 7.6, indicating derivation from a mantle source that has been LIL-depleted for at least 2 Ga. Reported _Nd values from the Arabian Shield that are lower than this suggest the presence of older, reworked continental crust.     

Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

Changes in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change signals in the seas off Mexico is presented and compared to other regions and the world ocean, and to selected basin scale climatic indices of the North Pacific, the Atlantic and the tropical Pacific variability. We identified eight regions with different exposure to climate variability: In the Pacific, the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with mostly no trend, the Gulf of California with a modest cooling trend during the last 20 to 25 years, the oceanic area with the most intense recent cooling trend, the southern part showing an intense warming trend, and a band of no trend setting the boundary between North-Pacific and tropical-Pacific variability patterns; in the Atlantic, the northeast Gulf of Mexico shows cooling, while the western Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have been warming for more than three decades. Potential interactions with fisheries and coastal sensitive ecosystems are discussed.     

Drought and human adjustment in Saudi Arabia

Drought is one of the natural hazards which causes death and damage for property particularly in drylands of the world. Drought as a natural hazard tends to limit and disrupt human activities. On the other hand, man has tried to adjust his living conditions to this hazard. The adjustment to drought is different from one country to another. Adjustment to drought is affected by culture, income, and by the political system in the country. In the case of Saudi Arabia adjustment to drought hazard is usually the work of both individuals, and government. The Saudi Arabian government has spent large sums of money to reduce impact of drought hazard.     

Energy sector policies in Botswana and their implications for global climate change

Like most African countries, Botswana contributes almost insignificantly to global greenhouse emissions (GHGs). In this context, some have argued that energy policy and legislative measures to regulate emissions in Botswana should not be accorded high priority. This is a misguided view when one considers that each country, no matter how under-industrialized, contributes to the overall global emission problem. Moreover, the least developed countries will have to industrialize in order to meet the increasing economic and social needs of their growing populations. For rapidly growing economies like Botswana, whose annual energy demand is projected to increase by about 4% for the next ten years, the importance of compiling accurate inventories of sources and sinks of GHGs and formulating environmentally-friendly policies can hardly be over- emphasized. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the ideal basis for the country-by-country investigations and management of global climatic change; specifically its nature, properties, directionality, characteristics and probable consequences. Botswana was a founding signatory of UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified the Convention in 1994. The country is also involved in regional cooperation efforts, within the Southern African Development Community, to enforce regulatory mechanisms to minimize GHG emissions from the energy sector. There exist certain energy-related institutions, policies, and regulations in the country which could mitigate the impact of GHG emissions on global warming. This paper, based on government and other relevant documentation, critically analyses Botswana's energy sector policies in as far as they affect climate change. It is clear that much still needs to be done about energy policies in terms of proper formulation, monitoring, co-ordination, energy pricing and the exploration of energy alternatives to mitigate potentially negative impacts on climate change.     

Bias adjustment of satellite-based precipitation estimation using artificial neural networks-cloud classification system over Saudi Arabia

Precipitation is a key input variable for hydrological and climate studies. Rain gauges can provide reliable precipitation measurements at a point of observations. However, the uncertainty of rain measurements increases when a rain gauge network is sparse. Satellite-based precipitation estimations SPEs appear to be an alternative source of measurements for regions with limited rain gauges. However, the systematic bias from satellite precipitation estimation should be estimated and adjusted. In this study, a method of removing the bias from the precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks-cloud classification system (PERSIANN-CCS) over a region where the rain gauge is sparse is investigated. The method consists of monthly empirical quantile mapping of gauge and satellite measurements over several climate zones as well as inverse-weighted distance for the interpolation of gauge measurements. Seven years (2010–2016) of daily precipitation estimation from PERSIANN-CCS was used to test and adjust the bias of estimation over Saudi Arabia. The first 6 years (2010–2015) are used for calibration, while 1 year (2016) is used for validation. The results show that the mean yearly bias is reduced by 90%, and the yearly root mean square error is reduced by 68% during the validation year. The experimental results confirm that the proposed method can effectively adjust the bias of satellite-based precipitation estimations.     

Temporal shoreline change and infrastructure influences along the southern Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia

Jizan is one of the Saudi Arabian coastal cities endowed with diverse natural settings, which includes Ash Shuqayq in the north, Turfah in the centre and Jizan in the South. This work analysed specific environmental characteristics, such as spits, sabkhas and wadis. Assessments used Landsat imagery to examine coastal change between 1973 and 2011. The cumulative temporal change identified regression trends given by coefficients of determination that explained a significant percentage of data variation for Jizan (R ² = 69%) and Turfah (R ² = 72%), while Ash Shuqayq was insignificant (R ² = 14%). Inter-survey results predicted future change, although trends were not significant, i.e. Jizan (R ² = 22%), Turfah (R ² = 14%) and Ash Shuqayq (R ² = 3 and 61% with outlying value removed). Aerial photos showed regional coastal changes, which included a maximum accretion of 36.4 m and maximum erosion of 12.9 m. These are scientifically effective techniques to monitor regional coastal change, i.e. erosion and accretion and identified rates of 0.59, 1.80 and 3.53 myr^?1 for Ash Shuqayq, Turfah and Jizan. Changes were linked to infrastructure developments, e.g. tourism, port development and natural causes, e.g. spit formations and wadi outfalls.     

A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia

Lacustrine sediments from southeastern Arabia reveal variations in lake level corresponding to changes in the strength and duration of Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) summer rainfall and winter cyclonic rainfall. The late glacial/Holocene transition of the region was characterised by the development of mega-linear dunes. These dunes became stabilised and vegetated during the early Holocene and interdunal lakes formed in response to the incursion of the IOM at approximately 8500 cal yr BP with the development of C3 dominated savanna grasslands. The IOM weakened ca. 6000 cal yr BP with the onset of regional aridity, aeolian sedimentation and dune reactivation and accretion. Despite this reduction in precipitation, the lake was maintained by winter dominated rainfall. There was a shift to drier adapted C4 grasslands across the dune field. Lake sediment geochemical analyses record precipitation minima at 8200, 5000 and 4200 cal yr BP that coincide with Bond events in the North Atlantic. A number of these events correspond with changes in cultural periods, suggesting that climate was a key mechanism affecting human occupation and exploitation of this region.     

Geological and geotechnical aspects of Saudi Arabia

Summary This paper presents a brief review of the geological and geotechnical aspects of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The first part of the paper presents a brief summary of the geological aspects and the soil characteristics in different parts of the country. The second part gives a brief outline of the major geotechnical problems encountered in the regions of the Kingdom along with their geographical locations.     

四川黄龙降水氢、氧同位素对气候变化的指示意义

与全球大气降水线相比,黄龙大气降水线的斜率和常数项均较小,这与水滴在未饱和大气中降落时重同位素的蒸发富集作用有关,且反映了近几十年以来黄龙的气候有向暖干变化的趋势。降水稳定同位素的显著降水量效应说明黄龙降水的水汽主要来源于低纬度海洋。过剩氘的季节变化及降水氢、氧同位素的降水量效应反映了黄龙地区旱季受大陆性气团的影响,空气干燥,降水量小,因此蒸发强,重同位素的富集作用强,从而降水中稳定同位素比率高;在雨季,受来自海洋水汽的影响,空气湿润,降水量大,因此蒸发弱,重同位素的富集作用轻,从而降水中稳定同位素比率低。据此推测,降水量效应可能是不同水汽来源对降水稳定同位素影响的结果。黄龙的降水温度效应不显著,季风气候抑制和掩盖了温度效应。      

Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India

Extreme climate and weather events are increasingly being recognized as key aspects of climate change. Pre-monsoon season (March–May) is the hottest part of the year over almost the entire South Asian region, in which hot weather extremes including heat waves are recurring natural hazards having serious societal impacts, particularly on human health. In the present paper, recent trends in extreme temperature events for the pre-monsoon season have been studied using daily data on maximum and minimum temperatures over a well-distributed network of 121 stations for the period 1970–2005. For this purpose, time series of extreme temperature events have been constructed for India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions, viz., Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP).     

Segregation and seclusion: the case of compounds for western expatriates in Saudi Arabia

In discussions on the “fragmented city” and the boom of private and guarded neighbourhoods, several authors have stressed the importance of a growing differentiation of lifestyles and “cultural” orientations for this trend. The compounds for western foreigners in Saudi Arabia are explicitly based on the idea of a spatial seclusion of social groups with different “cultural” backgrounds. This study presents an overview of the development of these western enclaves. Narrative interviews with former expatriates provide insights into their daily life, their social relations within the compound, and to the Saudi Arabia behind the gates.     

Health care pattern and planning in Saudi Arabia

Amazonia I is a large multi-disciplinary project, now in its fourth year, concerned with the effects of changing land use on the ecology and climate of the Brazilian Amazon. It is primarily concerned with investigating the water, carbon and nutrient cycles, and brings together about 80 scientists from a number of Brasilian institutes, but especially from INPA in Manaus, CENA/USP in Piracicaba and EMBRAPA/CPATU in Belem.Major activities include the better identification of water vapour producing precipitation, to establish better water vapour circulation models (via ¹⁸O, deuterium and ³H analysis, plus radiosonding); the study of water relations of isolated forest areas; the study of various phases of the carbon cycle especially soil organic matter; primary production; and nitrogen and soil fertility studies.A first phase Regional Amazon Model (RAM) for hydrology is being developed, and it should shortly be possible to make a first research-based attempt at modelling the carbon cycle of the Amazon region.This coordinated project represents in most ways the type of research required for the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and is a major Brasilian initiative.