Orbital evolution of long-period comets I. Trivariate Monte Carlo simulation

The mean orbital evolution of long-period comets for 16 representative initial orbits to short-period comets is calculated by a Monte Carlo method. First, trivariate perturbation distributions of barycentric Kepler energy, total angular momentum, and its z component in single encounters of comets with Jupiter are obtained numerically. Their characteristics are examined in detail and the distributions are found to be simple, symmetric, and easy to handle. Second, utilizing these distributions, we have done trivariate Monte Carlo simulations of the orbital evolution of long-period comets, with special emphasis on high-inclination orbits. About half of the 16 initial orbits are traced up to 5000 returns. For each of these orbits, the mean values of semimajor axis, perihelion distance, and inclination; their standard deviations, survival, and capture rates; as well as time scales of orbital evolution are calculated as functions of return number. Survival rates of the initial orbits with high inclination (～90°) and small perihelion distance (～1–2 AU) have been found to be only two or three times smaller than those of the main-source orbits of short-period comets established quantitatively by Everhart. The time scales of orbitsl evolution of the former, however, are nearly 10 times longer than the latter. There is a general trend that, for smaller perihelion distance, the survival efficiency becomes higher. The results of this paper should be considered a basis for a succeeding paper (Paper II) in which the physical lifetime of comets will be determined, and a comparison with the orbital data will be done.     

Earth-orbit-approaching comets and their theoretical meteor radiants

Sixteen comets produce recognizable meteor showers that are found in A. F. Cook's (1973, In Evolutionary and Physical Properties of Meteoroids (C. L. Hemenway, P. M. Millman, and A. F. Cook, Eds.), pp. 183–191, U.S. Govt. Printing Office, Washington, D.C.), working list of meteor streams. Of these, five are long period, including one in a parabolic and one in a hyperbolic orbit. The largest Earth-comet orbit miss distance is 0.20 AU for P/Encke and the Northern and Southern Taurids. Using this is an upper limit for meteor showers from comets, all comets which approach the Earth's orbit to within 0.20 AU were extracted from the Catalogue of Cometary Orbits (B. G. Marsden, 1979. 3rd ed., Central Bureau of Astronomical Telegrams, IAU SAO, Cambridge, Mass.). A compilation of such comets is presented by date minimum approach, along with the distance of closest approach and the theoretical geocentric radiants and velocities of possible associated meteor showers. Both pre- and postpperihelion encounters with the Earth's orbit are considered. There are 240 entries for 178 long-period comets, and 36 for 28 short-period comets. It is noted that all short-period comets that have approached the Earth's orbit to within 0.08 AU have produced meteors, except P/Lexell, P/Finlay, P/Denning-Fujikawa, and P/Grigg-Skjellerup. Attention is called to the favorable observing conditions for detecting meteors from P/Grigg-Skjellerup in April 1982, and for the possibility of another great Draconid storm from P/Giacobini-Zinner in October 1985. A comparison is made between observed sporadic meteor rates and the distribution of theoretical radiants throughout the year, from which it is concluded that the currently known comets can account for sporadic meteors. A criterion is developed to test whether or not an observed meteor shower can be associated with a given theoretical radiant. Based on known examples, a qualitative model for comet/meteor relationships is also presented.     

On the dynamic connection of comets with Uranus

We consider the connection with Uranus for: (1) 945 near-parabolic comets (the period P > 200 years, the perihelion distance q > 0.1 AU), (2) 1277 Kreutz comets (P > 200 years, q < 0.01 AU), and (3) 414 short-period comets (P < 200 years). It turns out that none of near-parabolic comets passed through Uranus’s activity sphere, none of the Kreutz comets approach Uranus closer than 11 AU, and only two short-period comets, C/2006 U7 and C/2006 F2, could have a close approach to Uranus during 5000 years.     

Meteoroid Streams Associated to Comets 9P/Tempel 1 and 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

The meteoroid streams associated to short-period comets 9P/Tempel 1 (the target of the Deep Impact mission)^. and 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (the target of the Rosetta mission) are studied. Their structure is overwhelmingly under the control of Jupiter and repeated relatively close encounters cause a reversal of the direction of the spatial distribution of the stream relative to the comet* an initial stream trailing the comet as usually seen eventually collapses, becomes a new stream leading the comet and even splits into several components. Although these two comets do not produce meteor showers on Earth, this above feature shows that meteor storms can occur several years before the perihelion passage of a parent body.     

Relationship of comets and planets

We analyze our earlier data on the numerical integration of the equations of motion for 274 short-period comets (with the period P<200 yr) on a time interval of 6000 yr. As many as 54 comets had no close approaches to planets, 13 comets passed through the Saturnian sphere of action, and one comet passed through the Uranian sphere of action. The orbital elements of these 68 comets changed by no more than ±3 percent in a space of 6000 yr. As many as 206 comets passed close to Jupiter. We confirm Everhart’s conclusion that Jupiter can capture long-period comets with q = 4–6 AU and i < 9° into short-period orbits. We show that nearly parabolic comets cross the solar system mainly in the zone of terrestrial planets. No relationship of nearly parabolic comets and terrestrial planets was found for the epoch of the latest apparition of comets. Guliev’s conjecture about two trans-Plutonian planets is based on the illusory excess of cometary nodes at large heliocentric distances. The existence of cometary nodes at the solar system periphery turns out to be a solely geometrical effect.     

The comet — Meteor stream complex

The genetic relationship between short-period comets and meteor streams is investigated. It is shown that mechanisms exist for the radial and the longitudinal focussing of particles in meteor streams with characteristic time scales of agglomeration significantly smaller than those of any of the known dispersive processes. Consequently, it is claimed that meteor streams may not merely form a sink for short-period comets but may also form a source. A likely origin for the volatiles observed in such comets is suggested. It is finally stressed that this reciprocity in the genetic relationship between short-period comets and meteor streams should form an important consideration in any attempt at accounting for the observed population of short-period comets.     

Secular brightness variations of periodic comets as a result of desintegration of their icy-dust nuclei and the solar activity

Results are presented from studies of the features of secular brightness fading for 18 short-period comets. The results by Sekanina are supplemented by new data on periodic-comet apparitions after 1964. Annual and orbital-period variations in the absolute magnitude for each comet, as well as the corresponding average values are determined. A statistically significant effect of the 90-year solar activity cycle on secular variations in the integrated magnitudes of short-period comets is found. The corresponding correlation coefficient is 0.81.     

中国古代彗星记录的证认

对中国古代彗星记录的研究状况进行了全面论述,讨论了古代彗星名称、记录和轨道的确定,以事实说明,据这些彗星记录不可能得垤精确的轨道;回顾了古代彗星证认的历史发展,着重分析进行短周期彗得证认时可能出现的问题和解决方法;总结了古代彗星证认的意义：一是有助于短周期彗星长期演化的研究,二是有助于历史年代的确定。     

Dynamical capture and physical decay of short-period comets

The brightness evolution of short-period comets is discussed in connection with their physical lifetimes. It is shown that changes in the fraction of the free-subliming area of the nuclear surface may be more important than mass decrease in determining brightness variations. The decrease in the activity of short-period comets caused by the buildup of a dust mantle may be interrupted—and partially reversed—by dust blowoffs that leave exposed areas of fresh ices. Short-period comets may thus be subject to random brightness fluctuations that make quite uncertain any derivation of their physical lifetime based on comparisons of their absolute brightness at different apparitions. As an alternate procedure, the numerical integration of the whole sample of short-period comet orbits carried out by A. Carusi, L.Kresák, E. Perozzi and G. B. Valsecchi (1984, Long-Term Evolution of Short-Period Comets. Istituto Astrofisica Spaziale Internal Report 12, Rome) is used to draw conclusions about the transfer rate of their perihelia from Jupiter's region to the region of the terrestrial planets (heliocentric distances<1.5 AU). It is found that about one short-period comet per century reaches the region of the terrestrial planets. From this result and under the assumption of a steady-state comet population, an average lifetime of the order of 6 × 10³ years (～10³ revolutions) is derived for a typical kilometer-sized short-period comet of perihelion distance q ～ 1 AU. Such a rather long comet lifetime, as compared to some previous derivations, is consistent with the survival of some periodic comets on small-q orbits of long dynamical time scales.     

Vaporization of comet nuclei: Light curves and life times

We have examined the effects of vaporization from the nucleus of a comet and show that a latitude dependence of vaporization can, in some cases, explain asymmetries in cometary light curves. We also find that a non-uniform distribution of solar radiation over a comet can considerably shorten the vaporization lifetime compared to the results normally obtained by assuming that the nuclear surface is isothermal.Independent of any latitude effects, comets with CO₂-dominated nuclei and with perihelion distances less than 0.5 AU have vaporization lifetimes less than or comparable to their dynamical ejection times. This may explain the observed deficit of comets with small perihelion distances. Similarly comets with CO₂-dominated nuclei and perihelia near Jupiter's orbit have vaporization lifetimes that are shorter than the time for capture into short-period orbits. We suggest, therefore, that at least some new comets are composed in large part of CO₂, while only H₂O-dominated comets, with lower vaporization rates, can survive to be captured into short-period orbits.     

The role of collisions with interplanetary particles in the physical evolution of comets

Effects of collisions with interplanetary particles are investigated. To this purpose, collision probabilities for comets with different orbital elements are computed. It is found that collisions may have a non-negligible effect on the physical evolution of comets. In this connection, it is shown that under certain conditions collisional lifetimes may be shorter than dynamical or vaporization lifetimes. In particular, collisional lifetimes are on average shorter for comets in retrograde orbits than those for direct ones. It is further suggested that catastrophic collisions may contribute to prevent long-period comets in retrograde orbits from reaching short-period orbits by orbital diffusion. Collisions may also produce irregularities of the nucleus brightness by leaving exposed regions of fresh volatile material and may in this way lead to a rejuvenation of old dusty short-period comets. Catastrophic collision probabilities are too low to account for the observed comet splittings, so other trigger mechanisms should be at work. However, it is shown that collisional mini-bursts (increases in brightness of one magnitude or so) caused by decimeter-sized bodies may occur rather frequently on short-period comets when they pass through the asteroid belt. The burst observed in comet Tempel-2 at 3 AU in December, 1978 could be an example of such collisional mini-bursts. The systematic observation of periodic comets when they pass through the asteroid belt could give valuable information about the spatial density of decimeter and meter-sized bodies. In particular, collisional effects for comet Halley, for which a continuous surveillance is planned, are evaluated.     

On the aging of comets

This study is based primarily on the calculations of comet orbits over ~ 10⁶ years for 160 short-period comets by Harold F. Levison and Martin J. Duncan from which there are calculated “ablation AGES”. There are positive statistical correlations (having many deviations) with radial nongravitational forces, comet activity measures, and dust-to-gas ratios in the spectra, in the sense that comets of greater “AGES” tend to be less active and to show less dust in their spectra than comets of lesser “AGES”.     

That's the way the comet crumbles: Splitting Jupiter-family comets

Our current understanding of split, Jupiter-family comets is reviewed. The focus is on what recent studies of comets have told us about the nature of the splitting phenomenon. The goal is to not repeat the information given in recent reviews of split comets, but to build upon it. In particular, we discuss comets that have suffered splitting or fragmentation events in the past few years. These include comets (a) 57P/du Toit-Neujmin-Delporte, observed with a long train of fragments in 2002; (b) 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, which split in 1995 and was extensively studied during its relatively close passage to Earth in 2006, during which dozens of fragments were discovered and studied; and (c) 174P/Echeclus, a Centaur and potentially future JFC, which split in late 2005 and was the first such Centaur observed to do so. We also discuss recent observations by SOHO of split comets that are likely of short-period. The Spitzer Space Telescope has observed many JFCs and provided us with unprecedented detailed views of cometary debris trails, which may be thought of as a middle ground between “normal” ejection of micron-sized dust grains and the cleaving off of meter-to-kilometer sized fragments. We will also discuss potential breakthroughs in studying splitting JFCs that may come from future surveys.     

On the origin of comets

The paper presents a brief history of cometary cosmogony. It discusses critically the eruptive hypothesis, the hypothesis on the relict origin of comets, and the hypothesis on a genetic connection between comets and trans-Plutonian planets. Laplace’s theoretical prediction as to the capture of long-period comets by Jupiter into short-period orbits is confirmed. We conclude that the interstellar hypothesis promising is for the provenance of comets.     

On the third-body perturbations of high-altitude orbits

The long-term effects of a distant third-body on a massless satellite that is orbiting an oblate body are studied for a high order expansion of the third-body disturbing function. This high order may be required, for instance, for Earth artificial satellites in the so-called MEO region. After filtering analytically the short-period angles via averaging, the evolution of the orbital elements is efficiently integrated numerically with very long step-sizes. The necessity of retaining higher orders in the expansion of the third-body disturbing function becomes apparent when recovering the short-periodic effects required in the computation of reliable osculating elements.     

Rotational Properties of Cometary Nuclei

We review several techniques used to retrieve rotational parameters from observations. The spin period of a dozen of comets retrieved with these techniques are summarized. We describe how the spin period of comet Hale-Bopp (C/1995 O1) has been calculated with a high accuracy (11.30–11.34 h). Although several authors converged to a spin axis orientation at (α,δ) = (275 ± 15°, -55 ± 5°), detailed studies indicate that the dust jets morphology in 1996–1997 may be incompatible with this orientation. Comet 19P/Borrelly has been recently observed by the Deep Space 1 spacecraft. At the same time, its spin axis orientation and period have been determined by several authors to be respectively (α,δ) = (225 ± 15°, -10 ± 10°)and 26h. These two comets are likely to be in (or close to) a principal axis spin state. We discuss new modeling of the spin state of comet 46P/Wirtanen, the target of the Rosetta mission. The model involves a three-dimensional shape and thermal model, from which the torque of the non gravitational force is calculated at each time step. The moments of inertia are computed for each irregular shape. The results from numerical integrations show that this comet can remain in a principal axis spin state during more than 10 orbits if the spin period does not get above～6 h. If the spin period increases, its nucleus gets rapidly into excited spin states. It shows that even small and very active short-period comets are not necessarily in non principal axis spin states. In the last section, the consequences of recent observations and modeling of the rotational parameters of comet nuclei are discussed, and unsolved problems are presented.     

A Model for the Common Origin of Jupiter Family and Halley Type Comets

A numerical simulation of the Oort cloud is used to explain the observed orbital distributions and numbers of Jupiter-family (JF) and Halley-type (HT) short-period (SP) comets. Comets are given initial orbits with perihelion distances between 5 and 36 au, and evolve under planetary, stellar and Galactic perturbations for 4.5 Gyr. This process leads to the formation of an Oort cloud (which we define as the region of semimajor axes a > 1,000 au), and to a flux of cometary bodies from the Oort cloud returning to the planetary region at the present epoch. The results are consistent with the dynamical characteristics of SP comets and other observed cometary populations: the near-parabolic flux, Centaurs, and high-eccentricity trans-Neptunian objects. To achieve this consistency with observations, the model requires that the number of comets versus initial perihelion distance is concentrated towards the outer planetary region. Moreover, the mean physical lifetime of observable comets in the inner planetary region (q < 2.5 au) at the present epoch should be an increasing function of the comets’ initial perihelion distances. Virtually all observed HT comets and nearly half of observed JF comets come from the Oort cloud, and initially (4.5 Gyr ago) from orbits concentrated near the outer planetary region. Comets that have been in the Oort cloud also return to the Centaur (5 < q < 28 au, a < 1,000 au) and near-Neptune high-eccentricity regions. Such objects with perihelia near Neptune are hard to discover, but Centaurs with characteristics predicted by the model (e.g. large semimajor axes, above 60 au, or high inclinations, above 40°) are increasingly being found by observers. The model provides a unified picture for the origin of JF and HT comets. It predicts that the mean physical lifetime of all comets in the region q < 1.5 au is less than ～200 revolutions.     

The activities of comets related to their aging and origin

Two indices have been developed for the purpose of comparing the natures of various classes of comets. The first is the Activity Index (AI), measuring the inherent magnitude increase in brightness from great solar distances to maximum near perihelion. The second, or Volatility Index (VI), measures the variation in magnitude near perihelion. Tentative determinations of these two indices are derived from observations by Max Beyer over more than 30 years for long-period (L-P) and short-period (S-P) comets near perihelion and from other homogeneous sources. AI determinations are made for 32 long-period (L-P) comets and for 14 short-period (S-P). The range of values of AI is of the order of 3 to 10 magnitudes with a median about 6. An expected strong correlation with perihelion distance q, is found to vary as q ^–2.3. Residuals from a least-square solution (AI) are used for comparing comets of different orbital classes, the standard deviation of a single value of AI is only ±1^m.1 for L-P comets and ±1^m.2 for S-P comets.Among the L-P comets, 19 of period P larger than 10⁴ years yield AI = 0^m.27 ± 0^m.25 compared to 0^m.39 ± 0^m.26 for 13 of period between 10² years and 10⁴ years. This denies any fading with aging among the L-P comets. Also no systematic change with period occurs for the VI index, leading to the same conclusions. Weak correlations are found with the Gas/Dust ratio of comets. No correlations are found between the two indices, nor of either index with near-perihelion magnitudes or orbital inclination.The various data are consistent with a uniform origin for all types of comets, the nuclei being homogeneous on the large scale but quite diverse on a small scale (the order of a fraction of kilometer in extent). Small comets thus may sublimate away entirely, leaving no solid core, while huge comets may develop a less volatile core by radioactive heating and possibly become inactive like asteroids after many S-P revolutions about the Sun. When relatively new, huge comets may be quite active at great solar distances because of volatiles from the core that have refrozen in the outer layers.     

Transneptunian object 2003 UB 313 as a source of comets

The possibility of interrelation between long-period comets and 2003 UB 313, a recently discovered large Kuiper Belt body, is investigated. For this purpose, 78 objects crossing the plane of motion of this body at distances from 37.8 to 97.6 AU have been selected from 860 long-period comets. The overpopulation of comets with this characteristic is also considered. The plane of motion of 2003 UB 313 is compared with the orbital planes of other objects in number of comet crossings in the specified distance interval or in some parts of it. A statistically significant overpopulation of elliptic and intermediate comets with the corresponding orbital nodes has been established. Recently discovered and absolutely faint comets show the best effect in this sense. The same is also true for comets with osculating eccentricities e < 1. A similar result is also obtained for comets with “original” a ^?1 > 0.010000. It is hypothesized that the 2003 UB 313 family is present among the 78 comets. Four of them have aphelion distances from 37.8 to 97.6 AU. An ellipticity is traceable in the distribution of some of the 78 distant nodes. This may be considered as a further argument for the suggested hypothesis. Generally, the body 2003 UB 313 may be assumed to play a prominent role in injecting observable comets from the transneptunian region