CARBON EMISSIONS FROM MEXICAN FORESTS: CURRENT SITUATION AND LONG-TERM SCENARIOS

Estimates of carbon emissions from the forest sector in Mexico are derived for the year 1985 and for two contrasting scenarios in 2025. The analysis covers both tropical and temperate closed forests. In the mid-1980s, approximately 804,000 ha/year of closed forests suffered major perturbations, of which 668,000 ha was deforestation. Seventy-five percent of total deforestation is concentrated in tropical forests. The resulting annual carbon balance from land-use change is estimated at 67.0 × 10⁶ tons/year, which lead to net emissions of 52.3 × 10⁶ tons/year accounting for the carbon uptake in restoration plantations and degraded forest lands. This last figure represents approximately 40% of the country's estimated annual total carbon emissions for 1985–1987. The annual carbon balance from the forest sector in 2025 is expected to decline to 28.0 × 10⁶ t in the reference scenario and to become negative (i.e., a carbon sink), 62.0 × 10⁶ t in the policy scenario. A number of policy changes are identified that would help achieve the carbon sequestration potential identified in this last scenario.     

‘New Estimates of Carbon Storage and Sequestration in China’S Forests: Effects of Age–Class and Method On Inventory-Based Carbon Estimation’

We developed a volume-to-biomass method based on age groups representative of forest development stages to estimate live tree biomass, C, and biomass and C accumulation rates of Chinas forests between 1973 and 1993. The data were from plot-level forest inventory, national-level inventory statistics, and ecological site studies specified to estimate biomass in different tree components. Our results indicate that carbon storage in Chinas forests was 4.34 Pg C in the early 1990s, an increase of 13% since the early 1970s. The annual forest C sequestration rate from the late 1980s to early 1990s was 0.068 Pg C/yr and approximately four- to five-times higher than in the 1970s and 1980s. The large C sink in Chinas forests in the early 1990s was likely related to age structure changes that had developed to more productive stages, a consequence of reforestation and afforestation programs from the 1960s. The results were compared with other C store estimates, which were based on the same inventory data. Various methods can produce estimates that differ in the direction of C flux as well as its magnitude. Separating age groups with the volume–biomass method could cause a 27% difference in estimated carbon pools but an 89% difference in C sequestration rates whereas the biomass density method would provide an estimate that differs by 65% in the C pools.     

Modelling the effects of albedo change associated with tropical deforestation

The effects in climate models of changes in albedo and soil moisture which are expected to follow from tropical deforestation are reviewed. The major results from experiments with tropical forest regions (a) forested (Experiment F) and (b) grass-covered (Experiment G) are compared over South America and Central Africa. Then, Experiment F is compared with Experiment 2 which has constant snowfree albedo of 0.2, close to that of grassland; in both South America and Zaire regions, the albedo changes for (G-F) and (2-F) are similar and, as Experiment 2 is an eight year run, assessments of the statistical significance can be made.The results for December to February and March to May show a decrease of rainfall over the Amazon region and also to the southeast outside the area which has changed albedos in (G-F). These decreases are common to both (G-F) and (2-F) and are statistically significant in the comparison with the eight year record for Experiment 2. Deforestation in the Zaire regions is associated with similar changes, which, though less extensive, are generally larger in relation to the albedo changes. In June to August, changes are small south of the equator because the rainbelt has moved north; in South America larger, significant decreases are obtained north of the equator.The drying with increased albedo is due to decreases in both evaporation and moisture convergence. The decreases in evaporation result both from a reduction in absorbed energy at the surface and an increase in surface resistance to evaporation due to greater soil moisture deficits arising from earlier decreases in rainfall.     

A Model to Calculate what a Remote Sensor ‘Sees’ of an Urban Surface

Whilst the measurement of radiation emissions from a surface is relatively straightforward, correct interpretation and proper utilization of the information requires that the surface area seen be known accurately. This becomes non-trivial when the target is an urban surface, due to its complex three-dimensional form and the different thermal, radiative and moisture properties of its myriad surface facets. The geometric structure creates shade patterns in combination with the solar beam and obscures portions of the surface from the sensor, depending on where it is pointing and its field-of-view (FOV). A model to calculate these surface-sensor-sun relations (SUM) is described. SUM is tested against field and scale model observations, and theoretical calculations, and found to perform well. It can predict the surface area seen by a sensor of known FOV pointing in any direction when placed at any point in space above a specified urban surface structure. Moreover, SUM can predict the view factors of the roof, wall and ground facets seen and whether they are sunlit or shaded at any location and time of day. SUM can be used to determine the optimal placement and orientation of remote sensors to study urban radiation emissions; if the facet temperatures are known or modelled it can calculate the average temperature of the system, and it can determine the directional variation of temperature (anisotropy) due to any particular surface-sensor-sun geometric combination. The present surface geometry used in SUM is relatively simple, but there is scope to make it increasingly realistic.     

Formation and chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols in an equatorial forest area

The physical properties and the chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols have been studied in an equatorial region in the southern Congo (Africa). Field experiments were conducted between 1978 and 1983 in the equatorial forest of the Mayombe during periods where the influence of biomass burning was minimum. The results indicate that the forest is a net source of both fine particles resulting primarily from gas-to-particle conversion and coarse particles produced by mechanical processes. Carbonaceous matter is the major component of these biogenic particles but the forest is also a significant source of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium and potassium. Half of this carbon is attached to submicron particles and likely derives from organic gaseous precursors naturally emitted by the local biosphere.Presented at the international Symposium Influence of marine and terrestrial biosphere on the chemical composition of the atmosphere, held in Mainz, F.R.G., on 16–22 March 1986.     

A radiation and energy balance study of mature forest and clear-cut sites

Components of the radiation and energy balances were measured over a clear-cut area and a mature, mixed forest during the summer of 1981 at the Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Chalk River, Ontario. The work concentrated on the clear-cut site which supported a canopy layer composed primarily of bracken fern and logging remnants.Forty days of radiation data were collected at the clear-cut site. After the first four weeks of measurements (the green season), most of the ferns quickly died, and their foliage changed appearance from a green to brownish colour (the brown season). The daily mean reflection coefficient of solar radiation determined over the green season was 0.20 and decreased to 0.13 for the brown season. The corresponding value for the forest was 0.13, based on a limited amount of data. The clear-cut site received 11% and 21% less net radiation than the forest on a 24-hr and daylight-hours basis, respectively, as a consequence of the higher reflection coefficient and larger daytime longwave radiation emission.A reversing temperature difference measurement system (RTDMS), incorporating ten-junction thermopiles was employed at each site in order to determine Bowen ratios () via differential psychrometry. Both systems performed well, especially the RTDMS over the forest which was capable of resolving very small differences of temperature, typically less than 0.2 °C over a height of 3 m. The mean hourly Bowen ratio, calculated from values from 0800 to 1600 hr, varied from 0.2 to 1.0 for the forest and from 0.4 to 0.8 for the clear-cut site in the green season.A significant canopy heat storage component of the energy balance, Q _S , was found at the clear-cut site. In the early morning, a portion of the available energy was used to heat the biomass materials and air within the canopy layer. The stored heat within the canopy was released later in the day, increasing the available energy total.The daily mean value of the Priestley-Taylor coefficient (Priestley and Taylor, 1972) for the green season at the clear-cut site was 1.14, and individual values tended to increase during wet surface conditions and decrease when the surface dried. The daylight mean value during dry canopy conditions at the forest was 1.05, and much higher values occurred when the canopy was wet. The enhancement of for the wet forest was a result of the evaporation of intercepted rain (which is not limited by stomatal resistance) and the concomitant transfer of sensible heat to the forest.     

Roe Deer Antlers as a Historical Bioindicator of Lead Pollution in the Šalek Valley, Slovenia

Antlers of different deer species are of particular importance for assessing temporal and/or spatial variations in environmental pollution with bone-seeking pollutants, such as Pb. Since antlers have a well-defined annual growth cycle, they accumulate Pb during a seasonally fixed time span, which provides natural standardisation of samples. Moreover, they are kept as trophies in well-dated collections enabling their use in historical studies. Considering these benefits, Pb levels were determined (by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry after the wet digestion of samples) in 116 antlers of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus L.), shot in the period 1961–2002 in the vicinity of the largest Slovene thermal power plant of otanj (TPP). Irrespective of the year of antler growth and the age of the animal analysed (no age-dependent influences were revealed), Pb levels ranged from 0.20 to 7.28 mg kg^–1 (mean: 1.32 ± 0.19 mg kg^–1), with the highest contents in the oldest and the lowest contents in the most recent samples. Since the mid-1960s, lead pollution has continuously decreased in the study area; three very evident drops (after 1975, 1985 and 1995, respectively) indicate the combined effect of three different remediation measures as follows: construction of a remote heating system in the seventies; introduction of unleaded petrol in the late-1980s, and construction of clean-up devices at the TPP in the late-1990s. The high positive correlation between the annual emissions from the TPP and the mean yearly Pb levels in antlers showed that roe deer antlers may be an useful tool for assessing temporal trends of ambient Pb pollution.     

Carbonyl sulfide emissions from biomass burning in the tropics

Carbonyl sulfide emissions from biomass burning have been studied during field experiments conducted both in an African savanna area (Ivory Coast) and rice fields, central highland pine forest and savanna areas in Viet-Nam. During these experiments CO₂, CO and C₂H₂ or CH₄ have also been also monitored. COS values range from 0.6 ppbv outside the fires to 73 ppbv in the plumes. Significant correlations have been observed between concentrations of COS and CO (R ²=0.92,n=25) and COS and C₂H₂ (R ²=0.79,n=26) indicating a COS production during the smoldering combustion. COS/CO₂ emission factors (COS/CO₂) during field experiments ranged from 1.2 to 61×10^–6 (11.4×10^–6 mean value). COS emission by biomass burning was estimated to be up to 0.05 Tg S/yr in tropics and up to 0.07 Tg S/yr on a global basis, contributing thus about 10% to the global COS flux. Based on the S/C ratio measured in the dry plant biomass and the COS/CO₂ emission factor, COS can account for only about 7% of the sulfur emitted in the atmosphere by biomass burning.     

Mass transfer to bean leaves

A vapour of radio-lead (²¹²Pb) has been used to measure the Sherwood number, Sh, of model leaves at various angles of incidence,, to the airstream in a wind tunnel. The results for=0 are compared with Pohlhausen's formula and the results for 0, with Powell's experiments. The local values of Sh on the upwind and downwind sides of discs have been obtained. For leaves in the canopy, Sh was found to be about 25% greater than would be predicted by applying Pohlhausen's equation without correction for orientation.     

A Green Planet Versus a Desert World: Estimating the Maximum Effect of Vegetation on the Land Surface Climate

We quantify the maximum possible influence of vegetation on the global climate by conducting two extreme climate model simulations: in a first simulation (desert world), values representative of a desert are used for the land surface parameters for all non glaciated land regions. At the other extreme, a second simulation is performed (green planet) in which values are used which are most beneficial for the biosphere's productivity. Land surface evapotranspiration more than triples in the presence of the green planet, land precipitation doubles (as a second order effect) and near surface temperatures are lower by as much as 8 K in the seasonal mean resulting from the increase in latent heat flux. The differences can be understood in terms of more absorbed radiation at the surface and increased recycling of water. Most of the increase in net surface radiation originates from less thermal radiative loss and not from increases in solar radiation which would be expected from the albedo change. To illustrate the differences in climatic character and what it would imply for the vegetation type, we use the Köppen climate classification. Both cases lead to similar classifications in the extra tropics and South America indicating that the character of the climate is not substantially altered in these regions. Fundamental changes occur over Africa, South Asia and Australia, where large regions are classified as arid (grassland/desert) climate in the desert world simulation while classified as a forest climate in the green planet simulation as a result of the strong influence of maximum vegetation on the climate. This implies that these regions are especially sensitive to biosphere-atmosphere interaction.     

Flux Footprints Within and Over Forest Canopies

The characteristics of turbulence within a forest arespatially heterogeneous and distinct from thoseassociated with the surface boundary layer. Consequently, the size and probability distribution offlux footprints emanating from sources below aforest canopy have the potential to differ from thoseobserved above forests.A Lagrangian random walk model was used toinvestigate this problem since no analytical solutionof the diffusion equation exists. Model calculations suggest that spatialcharacteristics of flux footprint probabilitydistributions under forest canopies are muchcontracted, compared to those evaluated in the surfaceboundary layer. The key factors affecting thestatistical spread of the flux footprint, and theposition of the peak of its probability distribution,are horizontal wind velocity and the standarddeviations of vertical and horizontal velocityfluctuations. Consequently, canopies, which attenuatemean horizontal wind speed, or atmospheric conditions,which enhance vertical velocity fluctuations, willcontract flux footprint distributions mostly near thefloor of a forest. It was also found that theprobability distributions of the flux footprint arenarrower when horizontal wind velocity fluctuationsare considered, instead of the simpler case that considers only vertical velocity fluctuations and meanhorizontal wind velocity.     

Red dust rain within the Spanish Mediterranean area

Dust rain belongs to the climatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean seaboard. Traditionally known as muddy' or bloody rains, red dust rain has become a topical issue as a result of more frequent rainfall of this kind in recent years. In spite of the difficulties that studying this phenomenon involves, owing to the lack of systematically kept records at meteorological observatories, details are provided of the high frequency of such phenomena within the Spanish Mediterranean area, using records from other phenological sources. The study analyzes the chemical composition of red dust rain and the atmospheric factors giving rise to such phenomena. Whether there is a relationship betwen the higher frequency of dust rain and possible changes in global atmospheric circulation is as yet unclear.     

GREENHOUSE GASES FROM DEFORESTATION IN BRAZILIAN AMAZONIA: NET COMMITTED EMISSIONS

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia is a significant source of greenhouse gases today and, with almost 90% of the originally forested area still uncleared, is a very large potential source of future emissions. The 1990 rate of loss of forest (13.8 × 10³ km²/year) and cerrado savanna (approximately 5 × 10³ km²/year) was responsible for releasing approximately 261 × 10⁶ metric tons of carbon (10⁶ t C) in the form of CO2, or 274–285 × 10⁶ t of CO2-equivalent C considering IPCC 1994 global warming potentials for trace gases over a 100-year horizon. These calculations consider conversion to a landscape of agriculture, productive pasture, degraded pasture, secondary forest, and regenerated forest in the proportions corresponding to the equilibrium condition implied by current land-use patterns. Emissions are expressed as net committed emissions, or the gases released over a period of years as the carbon stock in each hectare deforested approaches a new equilibrium in the landscape that replaces the original forest. For low and high trace gas scenarios, respectively, 1990 clearing produced net committed emissions (in 10⁶ t of gas) of 957–958 for CO2, 1.10–1.42 for CH₄, 28–35 for CO, 0.06–0.16 for N₂O, 0.74–0.74 for NO_x and 0.58–1.16 for non-methane hydrocarbons.     

Spatial Variability of Turbulent Fluxes in the Roughness Sublayer of an Even-Aged Pine Forest

The spatial variability of turbulent flow statistics in the roughness sublayer (RSL) of a uniform even-aged 14 m (= h) tall loblolly pine forest was investigated experimentally. Using seven existing walkup towers at this stand, high frequency velocity, temperature, water vapour and carbon dioxide concentrations were measured at 15.5 m above the ground surface from October 6 to 10 in 1997. These seven towers were separated by at least 100m from each other. The objective of this study was to examine whether single tower turbulence statistics measurements represent the flow properties of RSL turbulence above a uniform even-aged managed loblolly pine forest as a best-case scenario for natural forested ecosystems. From the intensive space-time series measurements, it was demonstrated that standard deviations of longitudinal and vertical velocities (_u, _w) and temperature (_T) are more planar homogeneous than their vertical flux of momentum (u_* ²) and sensible heat (H) counterparts. Also, the measured H is more horizontally homogeneous when compared to fluxes of other scalar entities such as CO₂ and water vapour. While the spatial variability in fluxes was significant (>15 %), this unique data set confirmed that single tower measurements represent the canonical structure of single-point RSL turbulence statistics, especially flux-variance relationships. Implications to extending the moving-equilibrium hypothesis for RSL flows are discussed. The spatial variability in all RSL flow variables was not constant in time and varied strongly with spatially averaged friction velocity u_*, especially when u_* was small. It is shown that flow properties derived from two-point temporal statistics such as correlation functions are more sensitive to local variability in leaf area density when compared to single point flow statistics. Specifically, that the local relationship between the reciprocal of the vertical velocity integral time scale (I_w) and the arrival frequency of organized structures (/h) predicted from a mixing-layer theory exhibited dependence on the local leaf area index. The broader implications of these findings to the measurement and modelling of RSL flows are also discussed.     

Paper 3. impacts and responses to climate change in forests of the mink region

The adaptability of forests in the U.S. midwest to a changing climate is assessed. The forests of Missouri are simulated with a forest-gap model, a stochastic model of the annual growth and mortality of trees within mixed-species forest plots. The development of representative forest plots under an analog climate like that of the 1930s is compared to development under baseline climate conditions. With no management response, average forest biomass in the region declines by 11% within ten years, primarily due to moisture-stress induced mortality. Longer term declines in forest productivity on the order of 30% are simulated. A variety of possible management responses through planting or harvesting practices were evaluated. None of these adaptations appear to be practical, although the salvage harvest of stressed trees would offset the economifc losses associated with the early mortality. An investigation of anticipated trends in the broader forest products sector suggests that opportunities for further adaptation to offset the decline in primary productivity of this region's forest are quite limited. However, a shift to wood powered electrical generation in the region might justify a level of management that would allow some adaptation to the analog climate change.Acknowledgments: Support from the U.S. Department of Energy through the Pacific Northwest Laboratory is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Alan Solomon for providing the FORENA forest simulation model.     

Deforestation in Russia and its contribution to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide in 1990–2013

The contribution of deforestation in Russia to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in 1990–2013 is estimated using the methods of computational monitoring. It is found that since 1990 the area of deforestation and forest conversion to other land-use categories is equal to 628.4 x 10³ ha. The respective CO₂ emissions from deforestation in Russia for the whole analyzed period are estimated at 142200 kt CO₂ with the average annual value of 5900 + 2270 kt CO₂/year. The largest contribution to the total losses is made by the changes in soil carbon stock (41.6%) and biomass carbon losses (28.8%). CO₂ emissions from deforestation make an insignificant contribution to the total anthropogenic CO₂ emission in the country (0.2%). Among the CO₂ sources in the land use, land-use change, and forestry sector (LULUCF), the emission from deforestation is the lowest with the average for 1990–2013 contribution of about 0.6%.     

Seasonal variation of Σθ with wind speed,direction and stability

For an airport site near Visakhapatnam, India, and based on 10 years of data for the months of January, April, August and October, values of are given as a function of wind speed, wind direction and Pasquill diffusion category.     

AN EVALUATION OF DISPERSION COEFFICIENTS FOR USE IN AIR QUALITY MODELS

Standard deviations of concentration in horizontal andvertical directions i.e. y andz have been estimated by using fivedifferent schemes based on empirical(due to Pasquill and Briggs)schemes and sophisticated methods(due to Irwin, Draxler, Taylor, Hanna et al.). The fiveschemes are discussed atlength. The purpose of this study is to make use ofmeteorological observations whichare routinely available, to test all the above methods andintercompare the resultswith one another and observations so that the sensitivityof each schemeunder various atmospheric stability conditions could beassessed. It has beenfound that the existing schemes are good enough to providereasonable estimates ofdispersion coefficient (y) during highly unstableconditions (Pasquill stability classes A and B). However, thesame is not true for the case when the stability increasesfrom C to F and turbulencedecreases, specifically during stable atmospheric conditions,when the observedvalues were found to be much higher than all the existingschemes. This suggests thatwhile we continue to use the current methods of estimatingthe dispersion parameters,a rigorous search is required for methods which give predictionswhich are close-to-realityduring such conditions which are represented by lowlevels (in terms of magnitude)of atmospheric turbulence leading to higher levelsof pollution.As one of the sophisticated methods requiresthe use of v and w (standard deviationsof wind velocity fluctuation in y and z directions),these have been estimated andvalidated with observed data (field experiments conductedby EPRI at Kincaid).Statistical evaluation of v and wbased on performance measures indicate a goodperformance of the parameterisations adopted in thisstudy. In the case of w duringunstable conditions a comparison of three differentschemes with observations is made.     

Tropical forests: Present status and future outlook

Tropical forests still cover almost 8 million km² of the humid tropics. But they are being destroyed at ever-more rapid rates. In 1989 the area deforested amounted to 142 200 km², or nearly 90% more than in 1979. So whereas the 1989 total amounted to 1.8% of the remaining biome, the proportion could well continue to rise for the foreseeable future, until there is little forest left in just another few decades.Deforestation patterns are far from even throughout the biome. In much if not most of Southeast and Southern Asia, East and West Africa, and Central America, there is likely to be little forest left by the year 2000 or shortly thereafter. But in the Zaire basin, western Brazilian Amazonia and the Guyana highlands, sizeable expanses of forest could persist a good while longer.The main agent of deforestation is the shifted cultivator or displaced peasant, who, responding to land hunger and general lack of rural development in traditional farming areas of countries concerned, feels there is no alternative but to adopt a slash-and-burn lifestyle in forestlands. This person is now accounting for at least 60% of deforestation, a proportion that is expanding rapidly. Yet he receives far less policy attention than the commercial logger, the cattle rancher and other agents of deforestation.This is a summary review of a report Deforestation Rates in Tropical Forests and Their Climatic Implications, prepared by the author and Richard A. Houghton for Friends of the Earth U.K. (available from 26–28 Underwood St., London N1 7JQ). A similar review, albeit with less updating than is included here, has been published by Myers, 1990a. The original report, being five times longer than the present paper, contains much detail of deforestation assessments on a country-by-country basis, backed by 400 references. It also presents information on research methodologies and reliability of data among other background materials, plus an analysis of carbon emissions from deforestation, as well as some policy appraisal and conservation recommendations.     

The Kyoto Protocol Emission Allocations: Windfall Surpluses for Russia and Ukraine

The emission targets adopted in the Kyoto Protocol¹ far exceed thelikely level of emissions from Russia and Ukraine. These countries could selltheir surplus if the Protocol is followedand industrialized countries establish an international emission tradingsystem. Critics have condemned the potentialsale and dubbed the surplus hot air because it does not represent anyreduction in emissions below the level thatwould have occurred anyway. Using the most recent, comprehensive regionalscenarios² for the emissions of carbon dioxide from the energysystem, we estimate that during the Protocol's2008–2012 budget period the surplus will range from 9 MtC (milliontons of carbon) to 900 MtC for Russia andfrom 3 MtC to 200 MtC for Ukraine. Even scenarios with high economic growthand carbon-intensive technologies donot exhaust the surplus before the budget period. In the central (middlecourse) scenario, the total carbon surplusexceeds 1000 MtC and is worth 22 to 170 billion U.S. dollars (4 to 34 billionU.S. dollars per year). This flow ofrevenues, which could exceed Russian earnings from natural gas exports($10 billion in 1997³), is comparable with the projectedtotal investmentsof the Russian energy system for 2008–2012. If directed towardslow-carbon infrastructure investments (e.g., gaspipelines), surplus transfers could reinforce and partially lock-indecarbonization of the world energy system.