Critical mechanisms for the formation of extreme arctic sea-ice extent in the summers of 2007 and 1996

Along with significant changes in the Arctic climate system, the largest year-to-year variation in sea-ice extent (SIE) has occurred in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas (defined here as the area of focus, AOF), among which the two highly contrasting extreme events were observed in the summers of 2007 and 1996 during the period 1979–2012. Although most efforts have been devoted to understanding the 2007 low, a contrasting high September SIE in 1996 might share some related but opposing forcing mechanisms. In this study, we investigate the mechanisms for the formation of these two extremes and quantitatively estimate the cloud-radiation-water vapor feedback to the sea-ice-concentration (SIC) variation utilizing satellite-observed sea-ice products and the NASA MERRA reanalysis. The low SIE in 2007 was associated with a persistent anticyclone over the Beaufort Sea coupled with low pressure over Eurasia, which induced anomalous southerly winds. Ample warm and moist air from the North Pacific was transported to the AOF and resulted in positive anomalies of cloud fraction (CF), precipitable water vapor (PWV), surface LWnet (down-up), total surface energy and temperature. In contrast, the high SIE event in 1996 was associated with a persistent low pressure over the central Arctic coupled with high pressure along the Eastern Arctic coasts, which generated anomalous northerly winds and resulted in negative anomalies of above mentioned atmospheric parameters. In addition to their immediate impacts on sea ice reduction, CF, PWV and radiation can interplay to lead to a positive feedback loop among them, which plays a critical role in reinforcing sea ice to a great low value in 2007. During the summer of 2007, the minimum SIC is 31 % below the climatic mean, while the maximum CF, LWnet and PWV can be up to 15 %, 20 Wm^?2, and 4 kg m^?3 above. The high anti-correlations (?0.79, ?0.61, ?0.61) between the SIC and CF, PWV, and LWnet indicate that CF, PWV and LW radiation are indeed having significant impacts on the SIC variation. A new record low occurred in the summer of 2012 was mainly triggered by a super storm over the central Arctic Ocean in early August that caused substantial mechanical ice deformation on top of the long-term thinning of an Arctic ice pack that had become more dominated by seasonal ice.     

The impact of Arctic sea ice on the Arctic energy budget and on the climate of the Northern mid-latitudes

The atmospheric general circulation model EC-EARTH-IFS has been applied to investigate the influence of both a reduced and a removed Arctic sea ice cover on the Arctic energy budget and on the climate of the Northern mid-latitudes. Three 40-year simulations driven by original and modified ERA-40 sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations have been performed at T255L62 resolution, corresponding to 79?km horizontal resolution. Simulated changes between sensitivity and reference experiments are most pronounced over the Arctic itself where the reduced or removed sea ice leads to strongly increased upward heat and longwave radiation fluxes and precipitation in winter. In summer, the most pronounced change is the stronger absorption of shortwave radiation which is enhanced by optically thinner clouds. Averaged over the year and over the area north of 70° N, the negative energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere decreases by about 10?W/m² in both sensitivity experiments. The energy transport across 70° N is reduced. Changes are not restricted to the Arctic. Less extreme cold events and less precipitation are simulated in sub-Arctic and Northern mid-latitude regions in winter.     

Thermohaline water structure on the southwestern Chukchi Sea shelf under conditions of opposite regimes of atmospheric circulation in summer periods of 2003 and 2007

The results of two oceanographic surveys, carried out by TINRO-Center in August 2003 and 2007 in the southwestern part of the Chukchi Sea under conditions of opposite regimes of atmospheric circulation in the Eastern Arctic, are given. A stationary anticyclone with the center over the Beaufort Sea in 2007 favored the transport of warm air masses to the Arctic basin and more rapid ice melting. The surface layer temperature to the east of Wrangel Island reached 12°C (6–8°C above the normal). The upwelling of bottom waters was registered in the coastal zone due to the southeastern winds, the Siberian coastal current was not observed. In summer 2003, on the contrary, the cyclonic circulation type prevailed over the eastern seas of the Arctic, the northwestern winds in the coastal zone favored the spreading of the Siberian coastal current almost up to Bering Strait, the water temperature was 2–3°C below normal. The coastal thermal front was formed in both situations: in the first case, due to upwelling, in the second case, due to the spreading of cold coastal desalinated East Siberian waters.     

All-Sky Surface Radiation and Clear-Sky Surface Energy Budgets: Summer to Freeze-Up in the Western Maritime Arctic

The 2009 ArcticNet expedition was a field campaign in the Amundsen Gulf–eastern Beaufort Sea region from mid-July to the beginning of November aboard the CCGS Amundsen that provided an opportunity to describe the all-sky surface radiation and the clear-sky surface energy budgets from summer to freeze-up in the data sparse western maritime Arctic. Because the fractional area of open water was generally larger than the fractional area of ice floes, the net radiation at the water surface controlled the radiation budget. Because the water albedo is much less than the albedo of the ice floes, the extent and duration of open water in summer is an important albedo feedback mechanism. From summer to freeze-up, the net all-sky shortwave radiation declined steadily as the solar angle lowered, while coincidently the net all-sky longwave radiation became increasingly negative. The all-sky net surface radiation switched from positive in summer to negative during the freeze-up period. From summer to freeze-up, both upward and downward turbulent heat fluxes occurred. In summer, a positive surface energy budget residual contributed to the melting of ice floes and/or to the warming of the Arctic Ocean's mixed layer. During the freeze-up period, with temperatures below approximately ?5°C, the residuals were mainly negative suggesting that heat loss from the ocean's mixed layer and heat released by the phase change of water were significant components of the energy budget's residual.     

Changes in the climate of the Alaskan North Slope and the ice concentration of the adjacent Beaufort Sea

A reliable data set of Arctic sea ice concentration based on satellite observations exists since 1972. Over this time period of 36 years western arctic temperatures have increased; the temperature rise varies significantly from one season to another and over multi-year time scales. In contrast to most of Alaska, however, on the North Slope the warming continued after 1976, when a circulation change occurred, as expressed in the PDO index. The mean temperature increase for Barrow over the 36-year period was 2.9°C, a very substantial change. Wind speeds increased by 18% over this time period, however, the increase were non-linear and showed a peak in the early 1990s. The sea ice extent of the Arctic Ocean has decreased strongly in recent years, and in September 2007 a new record in the amount of open water was recorded in the Western Arctic. We observed for the Southern Beaufort Sea a fairly steady increase in the mean annual amount of open water from 14% in 1972 to 39% in 2007, as deduced from the best linear fit. In late summer the decrease is much larger, and September has, on average, the least ice concentration (22%), followed by August (35%) and October (54%). The correlation coefficient between mean annual values of temperature and sea ice concentration was 0.84. On a monthly basis, the best correlation coefficient was found in October with 0.88. However, the relationship between winter temperatures and the sea ice break-up in summer was weak. While the temperature correlated well with the CO₂ concentration (r?=?0.86), the correlation coefficient between CO₂ and sea ice was lower (r?=??0.68). After comparing the ice concentration with 17 circulation indices, the best relation was found with the Pacific Circulation Index (r?=??0.59).     

Influence of Atlantic Water on the Sea Ice Cover in the Western Arctic in Winter

The results of temperature and salinity measurements in the upper 1000-mlayer of the Nansen Basin in the Arctic Ocean made from the North Pole-35 drifting station in winter of 2007/2008 are analyzed. The uniqueness of the dataset processed is defined by the station drift path in the Nansen Basin and by the time of the drift which immediately followed the record decline of Arctic sea ice in September 2007. It is found that the maximum heat flux from the ocean to the ice cover equal to more than 90 W/m² was observed in the area of Atlantic water in flow between Spitsbergen and Franz Josef Land. It was caused by the drift velocity increase and by the corresponding deepening of the Ekman boundary layer. No significant changes (as compared to climate normals) in the influence of ocean heat on the ice cover in the eastern Nansen Basin in winter were registered.     

A case study of a modelled episode of low Arctic sea ice

Simulations of the Arctic sea ice cover over the last 32 years generated by the HadGEM1 coupled climate model are able to capture the observed long term decline in mean September ice extent. HadGEM1 is also capable of producing an episode of low September ice extent of similar magnitude to the anomalously low extent observed in 2007. Using a heat budget analysis, together with diagnostics partitioning the changes in ice and snow mass into thermodynamic and dynamic components, we analyse the factors driving the long term decline in the ice mass and extent as well as those causing the modelled low ice event. The long term decline in the mass of ice and snow in HadGEM1 is largely due to extra melting during the summer, partly at the top surface of the ice, and partly via extra heating from the ocean as it warms due to the ice retreat. The episode of low summer ice extent is largely driven by the synoptic conditions over the summer moving the ice across and out of the Arctic basin, and also due to pre-conditioning of the snow and ice which is thinner than usual in the Eastern Arctic at the start of the melt season. This case study demonstrates that although HadGEM1 does not capture the persistent dipole pressure anomaly observed during the summer of 2007, it represents broadly similar mechanisms of generating a low ice extent.     

Sea ice and wind: Effects on primary productivity in the Barents Sea

Abstract

The Barents Sea is divided into a northern and a southern part by the Polar Front (at about 75–76° N) where Atlantic waters descend under Arctic waters. Near to and north of the Polar Front, the spring bloom of phytoplankton is triggered by the stability induced in the upper 20 m by the melting of ice. The pycnocline is too strong to be eroded by wind. Primary productivity after the bloom is therefore small and largely regenerative. Underneath the pycnocline there is a 3–5 m thick layer characterized by dense, slow‐growing algal populations. New productivity north of the Polar Front is no more than 40 g C m^?2 a^?1.

In permanently open waters south of the Polar Front, the spring bloom starts in early May. Rhythmic wind‐induced mixing related to the atmospheric low‐pressure belt reaches an average 40–60 m depth in the growth season, and secondary phytoplankton maxima may arise. As a result, new annual productivity is more than doubled, i.e. 90 g C m^?2 a^?1, relative to the same system without wind. Although productivity is highest south of the Polar Front, it is more concentrated north of it, in the sense that high new production is mainly related to a 20–50 km wide belt that sweeps the area following the ice edge northwards while the ice melts through the summer.     

Effective sea ice area based on a thickness threshold

As Arctic sea ice declines in response to climate change, a shift from thick multiyear ice to a thinner ice cover is occurring. With this transition, ice thicknesses approach a threshold below which ice no longer insulates the atmosphere from oceanic surface fluxes. While this is well known, there are no estimates of the magnitude of this threshold, nor of the proportion of sea ice area that is below this threshold as ice thins. We determine this threshold by simulating the atmospheric response to varying thicknesses, ranging from 0.0 to 2.0 m and determine that threshold to be 0.40–0.50 m. The resulting “effective” ice area is 4–14% lower than reported total ice area, as 0.39–0.97 × 10⁶ km² of the total ice area falls below the threshold throughout the twentieth century, including during notable ice minima. The atmosphere above large non-insulating ice-covered regions is susceptible to more than 2 °C of warming despite ice presence. Observed mean Arctic Ocean ice thickness is projected to fall below this threshold as early as the mid-2020s. Studies on ocean–atmosphere interactions in relation to sea ice area should focus on this insulating sea ice area, where ice is at least 0.40–0.50 m thick, and treat ice regions below 0.40–0.50 m thickness with caution.

     

FGOALS_gg1.1极地气候模拟

对中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_g1.1的极地气候模拟现状进行了较为全面的评估.结果表明,FGOALS_g1.1对南北极海冰的主要分布特征、季节变化和年代际变化趋势具有一定的模拟能力.但也注意到,与观测相比,模式存在以下几方面的问题:(1)模拟的海冰总面积北极偏多,而南极偏少.北极,北大西洋海冰全年明显偏多;夏季,西伯利亚沿海海冰偏多,而波弗特海海冰偏少.南极,威德尔海和罗斯海冬季海冰偏少.南北极海冰边缘都存在异常的较大范围密集度很小的碎冰区,夏季尤为显著.(2)海冰流速在南北极海冰边缘和南极大陆沿岸附近较大.北极,模式没能模拟出波弗特涡流,并且由于模式网格中北极点的处理问题,造成其附近错误的海冰流场及厚度分布.这些海冰偏差与模式模拟的大气和海洋状况有着密切的联系.进一步分析表明,FGOALS_g1.1模拟的冰岛低压和南极绕极西风带明显偏弱,其通过大气环流和海表面风应力影响向极地的热量输送,在很大程度上导致上述的海冰偏差.此外,耦合模式中大气-海冰-海洋的相互作用可以放大子模式中的偏差.     

Time-dependent response of a zonally averaged ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model to Milankovitch forcing

An ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model is developed to explore the time-dependent response of climate to Milankovitch forcing for the time interval 5–3 Myr BP. The ocean component is a zonally averaged model of the circulation in five basins (Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans). The atmospheric component is a one-dimensional (latitudinal) energy balance model, and the sea-ice component is a thermodynamic model. Two numerical experiments are conducted. The first experiment does not include sea ice and the Arctic Ocean; the second experiment does. Results from the two experiments are used to investigate (1) the response of annual mean surface air and ocean temperatures to Milankovitch forcing, and (2) the role of sea ice in this response. In both experiments, the response of air temperature is dominated by obliquity cycles at most latitudes. On the other hand, the response of ocean temperature varies with latitude and depth. Deep water formed between 45°N and 65°N in the Atlantic Ocean mainly responds to precession. In contrast, deep water formed south of 60°S responds to obliquity when sea ice is not included. Sea ice acts as a time-integrator of summer insolation changes such that annual mean sea-ice conditions mainly respond to obliquity. Thus, in the presence of sea ice, air temperature changes over the sea ice are amplified, and temperature changes in deep water of southern origin are suppressed since water below sea ice is kept near the freezing point.     

Heat budget of the upper Arctic Ocean under a warming climate

The heat budget of the upper Arctic Ocean is examined in an ensemble of coupled climate models under idealised increasing CO₂ scenarios. All of the experiments show a strong amplification of surface air temperatures but a smaller increase in sea surface temperature than the rest of the world as heat is lost to the atmosphere as the sea-ice cover is reduced. We carry out a heat budget analysis of the Arctic Ocean in an ensemble of model runs to understand the changes that occur as the Arctic becomes ice free in summer. We find that as sea-ice retreats heat is lost from the ocean surface to the atmosphere contributing to the amplification of Arctic surface temperatures. Furthermore, heat is mixed upwards into the mixed layer as a result of increased upper ocean mixing and there is increased advection of heat into the Arctic as the ice edge retreats. Heat lost from the upper Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere is therefore replenished by mixing of warmer water from below and by increased advection of warm water from lower latitudes. The ocean is therefore able to contribute more to Arctic amplification.     

Polar WRF模式海冰密集度方案对北极海雾模拟效果的个例研究

全球变暖的背景下,北极航线的常规通航甚至商业运营有望实现,而海雾会严重影响航道上船只的航行安全。海冰的存在使海气之间相互作用变得更为复杂,是研究北极海雾不可忽略的因素。船载观测发现,与中纬度常见平流冷却雾形成时气温下降速度往往超过海水降温速度不同,北极海雾发生时海冰的存在还会使海水降温速度超过空气降温速度。然而目前海冰分布是否会影响模式模拟海雾的准确性还不得而知,因此本文利用Polar WRF（Polar Weather Research and Forecasting）模式模拟了中国第七次北极考察中观测到的一次海雾过程,并进行海冰密集度敏感性试验。通过与船载观测和欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析数据比对发现,在低浮冰区内（海冰密集度小于50%）考虑海冰分布时可以更加准确地刻画潜热通量与水汽通量,模拟出与观测事实相符的表层空气降温与增湿过程以及相对湿度的变化,因此能够更好地刻画海雾的三维结构及其生消演变。     

Evaluation of pan-Arctic melt-freeze onset in CMIP5 climate models and reanalyses using surface observations

The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are fundamental features of the Arctic climate system. The representation of the pan-Arctic melt and freeze onset (north of 60°N) is assessed in two reanalyses and eleven CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs). The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are retrieved from surface air temperature (SAT) across the land and sea-ice domains and evaluated against surface observations. While monthly averages of SAT are reasonably well represented in models, large model-observation and model–model disparities of timing of melt and freeze onset are evident. The evaluation against surface observations reveals that the ERA-Interim reanalysis performs the best, closely followed by some of the climate models. GCMs and reanalyses capture the seasonal melt-freeze transitions better in the central Arctic than in the marginal seas and across the land areas. The GCMs project that during the 21st century, the summer length—the period between melt and freeze onset—will increase over land by about 1 month at all latitudes, and over sea ice by 1 and 3 months at low and high latitudes, respectively. This larger summer-length increase over sea ice at progressively higher latitudes is related to a retreat of summer sea ice during the 21st century, since open water freezes roughly 40 days later than ice-covered ocean. As a consequence, by the year 2100, the freeze onset is projected to be initiated within roughly 10 days across the whole Arctic Ocean, whereas this transition varies by about 80 days today.     

Mechanism of an Abrupt Decrease in Sea-Ice Cover in the Pacific Sector of the Arctic during the Late 1980s

The recent decline in Arctic sea-ice cover (SIC) shows seasonal and regional characteristics. The retreat of summer sea ice has occurred mainly in the Pacific sector of the Arctic. In this study, using the moving t-test, we found an abrupt change event in the long-term sea-ice area in the Pacific sector in summer 1989. This event was linked to the phase shift of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or the Northern Annular Mode (NAM). Corresponding with the AO/NAM phase shift from negative to positive, the area of the northern hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex decreased abruptly in winter 1988/89. Comparisons of two periods before (1979–1988) and after (1989–1993) the abrupt decrease in sea ice show that an anomalous winter sea level pressure (SLP) was induced by changes in the polar vortex leading to an anomalous cyclonic ice drift in the Pacific sector. The changes in SLP and wind field persisted into the following spring, resulting in a decrease in SIC and warming of the surface air temperature (SAT). The influence of the spring SLP and SAT on ice persisted into the following summer. Meanwhile, the increased summer net surface heat flux over the ocean and sea ice as a result of the decreased spring ice cover further contributed to the summer sea-ice melt.     

Lapwings in Newfoundland

Abstract

Weather observations made at Eureka, on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic, have been archived since 1953. The time series, averages, and seasonal cycles of surface temperature, pressure, dew point, relative humidity, cloud cover, wind speed, and direction are presented for the period from 1954 to 2007. Also shown are the time series and averages for the 500 mb temperature, 900 to 500 mb thickness, 500 mb wind speed, and various boundary‐layer stability parameters. Some of the main trends found are 1) an annual average surface warming of 3.2°C since 1972, with summer exhibiting the least warming, 2) a reduction in the frequency of strong anticyclonic events in the winter, 3) a reduction in surface wind speeds except in the summer, 4) a 1.0°C warming in the 500 mb temperature since 1961, with the greatest warming occurring in the spring and summer, and 5) a 10% increase in precipitable water all year round since 1961 but dominated by the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. The importance of open water in the Arctic Ocean for summer temperatures and humidity, of the North Atlantic Oscillation for winter interannual pressure variability, and of precipitable water for winter temperatures are highlighted in this climatology.     

Expected change of hydrologic cycle in Northern Eurasia due to disappearance of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean

The effects are considered that global warming and rapid sea ice decline in the Arctic (up to the formation of ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean in summer) made on the hydrological regime of Northern Eurasia. Ensemble computations of climate are provided and changes in the atmospheric water cycle and in water balance in large catchment areas after the loss of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic are estimated. Considerable changes in the hydrological regime are demonstrated on the example of the large catchments of the Siberian rivers; the changes are especially manifested in the period of intense snow melting, i.e., in spring and in early summer. It is revealed that the increase in the frequency of spring floods is expected in the river catchments adjoining the Arctic Ocean. It is demonstrated that the Arctic Ocean ice reduction does not exert as significant influence on variations in the water cycle in Northern Eurasia as the global warming does.     

Autumn atmospheric response to the 2007 low Arctic sea ice extent in coupled ocean–atmosphere hindcasts

The autumn and early winter atmospheric response to the record-low Arctic sea ice extent at the end of summer 2007 is examined in ensemble hindcasts with prescribed sea ice extent, made with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere seasonal forecast model. Robust, warm anomalies over the Pacific and Siberian sectors of the Arctic, as high as 10°C at the surface, are found in October and November. A regime change occurs by December, characterized by weaker temperatures anomalies extending through the troposphere. Geopotential anomalies extend from the surface up to the stratosphere, associated to deeper Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. While the upper-level jet is weakened and shifted southward over the continents, it is intensified over both oceanic sectors, especially over the Pacific Ocean. On the American and Eurasian continents, intensified surface Highs are associated with anomalous advection of cold (warm) polar air on their eastern (western) sides, bringing cooler temperatures along the Pacific coast of Asia and Northeastern North America. Transient eddy activity is reduced over Eurasia, intensified over the entrance and exit regions of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, in broad qualitative agreement with the upper-level wind anomalies. Potential predictability calculations indicate a strong influence of sea ice upon surface temperatures over the Arctic in autumn, but also along the Pacific coast of Asia in December. When the observed sea ice extent from 2007 is prescribed throughout the autumn, a higher correlation of surface temperatures with meteorological re-analyses is found at high latitudes from October until mid-November. This further emphasises the relevance of sea ice for seasonal forecasting in the Arctic region, in the autumn.     

The effect of wind and temperature to phytoplankton biomass during blooming season in Barents Sea

The Barents Sea is the most productive sea in the Arctic. The main causes of phytoplankton spring blooms are studied for a decadal time period of 2003–2013 at the region of (70 °N-80 °N, 30 °E-40 °E) in Barents Sea. Due to the rapidly ice melt in the southern region (70 °N-75 °N), almost no ice left after year 2005, sea surface temperature (SST) and wind speed (WIND) are two main dominant factors influencing phytoplankton blooming in the southern region. Ice melt is another important factor of phytoplankton blooming in the northern region (75 °N–80 °N). SST and CHL had positive correlations during blooming season but negative correlations during summer time. The lower SST in spring could result in earlier blooming in the region. Higher SST and higher WIND could result in later blooming. Positive NAO after April 2013 caused higher SST in 2013. Increasing WIND would cause CHL reduced accordingly. Blooming period is from late April to late May in the southern region, and 1–2 weeks later in the northern region. During blooming season, SST was less than 4 °C and WIND was less than 10 m/s. The higher winds (over 15 m/s) in early spring would brought more nutrients from bottom to surface and cause higher blooming (near 10 mg/m³ in year 2010) after WIND is reduced to 5−8 m/s. Higher WIND (around 10 m/s) could generate longer blooming period (more than a week) during late May in the southern region. Decrease of WIND and increase of melting ice, with slightly increase of SST and decrease of mixed layer depth (MLD), are all the factors of phytoplankton blooming in late spring and early summer.     

Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012

Declining sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic has gained significant attention with respect to the prospect of increased shipping activities. To investigate relationships between recent declines in sea ice area with Arctic maritime activity, trend and correlation analysis was performed on sea ice area data for total, first-year ice (FYI), and multi-year ice (MYI), and on a comprehensive shipping dataset of observed vessel transits through the Vessel Traffic Reporting Arctic Canada Traffic Zone (NORDREG zone) from 1990 to 2012. Links to surface air temperature (SAT) and the satellite derived melt season length were also investigated. Between 1990 and 2012, statistically significant increases in vessel traffic were observed within the NORDREG zone on monthly and annual time-scales coincident with declines in sea ice area (FYI, MYI, and total ice) during the shipping season and on a monthly basis. Similarly, the NORDREG zone is experiencing increased shoulder season shipping activity, alongside an increasing melt season length and warming surface air temperatures (SAT). Despite these trends, only weak correlations between the variables were identified, although a step increase in shipping activity is apparent following the former summer sea ice extent minimum in 2007. Other non-environmental factors have also likely contributed to the observed increase in Arctic shipping activity within the Canadian Arctic, such as tourism demand, community re-supply needs, and resource exploration trends.