Prediction of maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 23

Instantaneous predictions of the maximum monthly smoothed sunspot number in solar cycle 23 have been made with a linear regressive model, which gives the predicted maximum value as a function of the smoothed sunspot numbers corresponding to a given month from the minimum in all preceding cycles. These predictions indicate that the intensity of solar activity in the current cycle will be at an average level.     

Hemispheric asymmetry of sunspot area in solar cycle 23 and rising phase of solar cycle 24: Comparison of three data sets

Analysis of long-term solar data from different observatories is required to compare and confirm the various level of solar activity in depth. In this paper, we study the north–south asymmetry of monthly mean sunspot area distribution during the cycle-23 and rising phase of cycle-24 using the data from Kodaikanal Observatory (KO), Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON). Our analysis confirmed the double peak behavior of solar cycle-23 and the dominance of southern hemisphere in all the sunspot area data obtained from three different resources. The analysis also showed that there is a 5–6 months time delay in the activity levels of two hemispheres. Furthermore, the wavelet analysis carried on the same data sets showed several known periodicities (e.g., 170–180 days, 2.1 year) in the north–south difference of sunspot area data. The temporal occurrence of these periods is also the same in all the three data sets. These results could help in understanding the underlying mechanism of north–south asymmetry of solar activity.     

Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number

Examined are associational aspects as they relate the maximum amplitude R _M for the sunspot cycle to the rate of rise R _t during the ascending phase, where R _M is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum and R _t is the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers for selected 6-month intervals (t) measured from cycle onset. One finds that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the latter half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a coefficient of correlation r 0.9 and a standard error S _yx 20. During the first four intervals, the expected R _M and the observed R _M were found to differ by no more than 20 units of smoothed sunspot number only 25, 42, 50, and 58 % of the time; during the latter four intervals, they differed by no more than 20 units 67, 83, 92, and 100% of the time.     

Predicting the start and maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24 using similar phases and a cycle grouping

We find that the solar cycles 9, 11, and 20 are similar to cycle 23 in their respective descending phases. Using this similarity and the observed data of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (SMSNs) available for the descending phase of cycle 23, we make a date calibration for the average time sequence made of the three descending phases of the three cycles, and predict the start of March or April 2008 for cycle 24. For the three cycles, we also find a linear correlation of the length of the descending phase of a cycle with the difference between the maximum epoch of this cycle and that of its next cycle.Using this relationship along with the known relationship between the rise-time and the maximum amplitude of a slowly rising solar cycle, we predict the maximum SMSN of cycle 24 of 100.2±7.5 to appear during the period from May to October 2012.     

Predicting the maximum sunspot number and the associated geomagnetic activity indices a a $aa$ and A p $Ap$ for solar cycle 25

We are considering the spacetime described by the metric proposed by Mannheim and Kazanas. The effective potential and the circular orbits are discussed. The rotational velocity derived from the geodesics equation agrees with the observed flat galactic rotation curves. Finally, solutions to the Gordon equation for massless bosons evolving in this spacetime are obtained in terms of Heun general functions.

     

The 27-Day and 22-Year Cycles in Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

We study the evolution of the longitudinal asymmetry in solar activity through the wave packet technique applied to the period domain of 25 – 31 days (centered at the 27-day solar rotation period) for the sunspot number and geomagnetic aa index. We observe the occurrence of alternating smaller and larger amplitudes of the 11-year cycle, resulting in a 22-year periodicity in the 27-day signal. The evolution of the 22-year cycle shows a change of regime around the year 1912 when the 22-year period disappears from the sunspot number series and appears in the aa index. Other changes, such as a change in the correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity, took place at the same time. Splitting the 27-day frequency domain of aa index shows an 11-year cycle for higher frequencies and a pure22-year cycle for lower frequencies, which we attribute to higher latitude coronal holes. This evidence is particularly clear after 1940, which is another benchmark in the evolution of the aa index. We discuss briefly the mechanisms that could account for the observed features of the 22-year cycle evolution.     

On the number of central configurations in the N-body problem

Central configurations are critical points of the potential function of the n-body problem restricted to the topological sphere where the moment of inertia is equal to constant. For a given set of positive masses m ₁,..., m _n we denote by N(m ₁, ..., m _n, k) the number of central configurations' of the n-body problem in ^k modulus dilatations and rotations. If m _{n 1},..., m _n, k) is finite, then we give a bound of N(m ₁,..., m _n, k) which only depends of n and k.     

Variations in solar shortwave radiation in the solar activity cycle as measured by the <Emphasis Type="Italic">CORONAS</Emphasis> satellites

The CORONAS-I and CORONAS-F data on variations in the ionizing shortwave ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation (EUV radiation) at wavelengths of less than 130 nm and near the H Lyman-alpha line are presented. The CORONAS-I data refer to the period close to solar minimum (the index F _10.7 = 80?100), and the CORONAS-F measurements were held close to solar maximum (F_10.7 = 140?280). The UV data are compared to those from the UARS and SOHO satellites and to the results obtained from the ionospheric measurements of ionosphere critical frequencies.