沂沭带形变、重磁场时空变化特征与地震活动

综合利用流动水准和流动重磁复测资料,分析沂沭断裂带上地壳形变场和地球物理场的时空强变化特征,揭示沂沭断裂带活动特征是以鲁中隆起的继承性活动为主,沂沭带北端的双山-李家庄断裂两盘的垂直形变受区域断裂控制并与区域地震活动有关,与1983年荷泽地震和1995年苍山地震有较好对应关系;沂水附近地磁场有“窗口效应”,尤其与南黄海地震活动及沂沐断裂带上的小震活动有关。     

沂沭断裂带及其附近小震应力降和介质Q值

本文对1974年以来发生在沂沭带及其附近的小震进行了P波段谱分析。根据前人的成果和经验（1－5），采用不同的震源模式，计算了小震应力降（△σ，△σ′）、地震矩（M0）、震源尺度（L）以及介质品质因子（Q值）给出了沂沭带及其附近的△σ和Q值的背景分布特征，进而讨论了这种背景分布的地震危险性。     

沂沭带应力场动态追踪研究与苍山5.2级地震

通过对沂沭带应力场动态变化的追踪，利用《地震学分析预报方法程式指南》中的一些方法，对沂沭带进行了系统的计算和分析，发现了在苍山Ｍｓ５．２地震前，沂沭带中，南段应力场小区域综合震源机制解Ｐ轴方位出现了长达１０年的分离现象，初动矛盾符号比出现了１０年低值异常，多项地震活动性参数也出现了不同程度的异常显示。     

沂沭断裂带小地震空间分布特征

本文分析了沂沭断裂带近十几年来小地震的空间分布特征。认为近期沂沭带上的小震受活动构造的控制,震中分布具有明显的分段差异性,且与1668年郯城——莒县8.5级地震有关;小地震深度分布具有南浅、北深、中部宽的特点;小震时空分布受邻区强震或中等地震的影响,表现为在邻区地震发生前后,沂沭带相应一侧的地震明显减少或消失,这可能是由于这些地震发生前后震中周围地区出现地震空区所致;带上小震活动的某些指标基本上属于正常范围。     

山东及附近海域构造环境剪应力场分析

利用山东数字地震台网的地震波形记录,选取2007年以来台网记录清晰的ML≥2．0数字地震波形资料,计算每次地震的环境剪应力值τ0和矩震级MW,并分析其相关关系;结合山东地区地质构造和地震活动性特点,对胶东半岛及北部海域、南黄海北部地区、沂沭带地区、冀鲁豫交界地区应力场分布和时空变化进行细致分析,并探讨其区域特征及与地震活动性的关系。     

山东及附近海域构造环境剪应力场分析

利用山东数字地震台网的地震波形记录,选取2007年以来台网记录清晰的M_L≥2.0数字地震波形资料,计算每次地震的环境剪应力值τ_0和矩震级M_W,并分析其相关关系;结合山东地区地质构造和地震活动性特点,对胶东半岛及北部海域、南黄海北部地区、沂沭带地区、冀鲁豫交界地区应力场分布和时空变化进行细致分析,并探讨其区域特征及与地震活动性的关系。     

苍山5.2级地震前的测震学异常特征

本利用山东,江苏省地震台网的资料,对苍山５．２级地震前沂沭带南段地震活动性参 的变化特征进行了分析研究。发现苍山５．２级地震前沂沭带南段３、４级地震活动增强,应变能释放速率加速,地震波速比的时空变化,震前出现明显的低值异常时段和低值异常区。据比异常变化曾在震前提出过预报意见。     

2022年泸定M6.8地震前地震活动参数变化研究

2022年9月5日四川泸定发生M6.8地震,为研究泸定地震孕震区的应力变化,选取b值、小震调制比和丛集率这3个参数,对泸定地震前的区域地震活动状态进行计算研究。结果显示:泸定及周边区域几次强震发生前,区域地震活动均存在持续时间较长的低b值时段,且在低b值状态下震前短期内出现小震高丛集、高调制比的现象;鲜水河断裂带的地震活动状态分析显示,此次泸定地震前该断裂带存在持续时间近10个月的低b值状态,且短期内出现丛集率升高、调制比高值现象。通过对比分析,认为泸定地震是鲜水河断裂带构造运动的结果。综合分析认为,结合应力场背景和构造条件研究地震活动b值、固体潮调制比和丛集率的时空变化有助于理解大地震的孕育演化过程。     

2016年唐山开平ML4.7地震活动性分析

2016年8月至2016年10月唐山余震区小震活动增强,尤其是8月21日至9月22日期间,其中9月10日发生震级最大地震为唐山开平ML4.7地震。为了解中强地震发震特征及地震序列变化,基于模板匹配定位识别技术,利用2016年8月1日至2016年10月31日连续波形进行唐山开平地震前后微震检测和定位。从研究区域内中国地震台网目录中选择283个地震事件作为模板事件,基于连续波形共检测识别出878个地震事件,其数量约为模板事件的3倍,约为中国地震台网目录的1.4倍,检测后的地震目录完备震级由原来的ML0.2提升至ML-0.1。利用双差定位方法对847个地震事件进行重定位,结果显示震中附近小震活动频繁,且在唐山开平地震震中周边分布较集中。分析震群分布特征认为唐山开平地震属于唐山老震区正常地震活动,发震断层为唐山-古冶断裂的可能性较大。     

沂沭断裂带近期地震活动性分析

本文研究了沂沭带近期(1970～1986)地震活动性指标的时序变化,设计了分布模型并进行统计检验,结合地震空间分布特点综合分析认为,该带地震活动性指标无明显异常,空间分布状态稳定,时间分布服从泊松模型。说明近期沂沭带处于稳定受力状态,地震为正常背景性活动。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia

Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia.     

THEORETICAL APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION OF THE INFILTRATION PROBLEM

ABSTRACT

The one-dimensional transient downward entry of water in unsaturated soils is investigated theoretically. The mathematical equation describing the infiltration process is derived by combining Darcy's dynamic equation of motion with the continuity and thermodynamic state equations adjusted for the unsaturated flow conditions. The resulting equation together with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions constitues a mathematical initial boundary value problem requiring the solution of a nonlinear partial differential equation of the parabolic type. The volumetric water content is taken as the dependent variable and the time and the position along the vertical direction are taken as the independent variables. The governing equation is of such nature that a solution exists for t > 0 and is uniquely determined if two relationships are defined, together with the specified state of the system, at the initial time t = 0 and at the two boundaries. The two required relations are those of pressure versus permeability and pressure versus volumetric water content.

Since the partial differential equation has strong non-linear terms, a discrete solution is obtained by approximating the derivatives with finite-differences at discrete mesh points in the solution domain and integrated for the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The use of an implicit difference scheme is employed in order to generate a system of simultaneous non-linear equations that has to be solved for each time increment. For n mesh points the two boundary conditions provide two equations and the repetition of the recurrence formula provides n—2 equations, the total being n equations for each time increment. The solution of the system is obtained by matrix inversion and particularly with a back-substitution technique. The FORTRAN statements used for obtaining the solution with an electronic digital computer (IBM 704) are presented together with the input data.

Analysis of the errors involved in the numerical solution is made and the stability and convergence of the solution of the approximate difference equation to that of the differential equation is investigated. The method applied is that of making a Fourier series expansion of a whole line of errors and then following the progress of the general term of the series expansion and also the behavior of each constituent harmonic. The errors (forming a continuous function of points in an abstract Banach space) are represented by vectors with the Fourier coefficients constituting a second Banach space. The amplification factor of the difference equation is shown to be always less than unity which guarantees the stability of the employed implicit recurrence scheme.

Experiments conducted on a vertical column packed uniformly with very fine sand, show a satisfactory agreement between the theoretically and experimentally obtained values. Many experimental results are shown in an attempt to explain the infiltration phenomenon with emphasis on the shape and movement of the wet front, and the effects of the degree of compaction, initial water content and deaired water on the infiltration rate.     

Late Permian post‐ophiolitic trondhjemites from Central Iran: a mark of subduction role in growth of Paleozoic continental crust

Late Permian trondhjemites in the Anarak area occur as stocks and dykes, which cross cut the Anarak ophiolite and its overlying metasedimentary rocks, and are exposed along the northern Anarak east–west main faults. These leucocratic intrusive bodies have enclaves of all ophiolitic units and metamorphic rocks. They are composed of amphibole, plagioclase (oligoclase), quartz, zircon and muscovite. Secondary minerals are chlorite (pycnochlorite), epidote, albite, magnetite and calcite. Whole‐rock major‐ and trace‐element analyses reveal that they are characterized by high SiO ₂ (67.8–71.0 wt%), Al ₂ O ₃ (14.9–17.1 wt%) and Na ₂ O (5.3–8.6 wt%), low K ₂ O (0.1–1.5 wt%; average: 0.8 wt%), low Rb/Sr ratio (0.01–0.40; average: 0.09), low Y (3–6 ppm), negative Ti, Nb and Ta anomalies, slightly negative or positive Eu anomaly, LREE enrichment and fractionated HREE. These rocks present 2 to 40 times enrichment in inclined chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. Geochemical characteristics of the Anarak trondhjemites all reflect melting of a mafic protolith at more than 10 kbar. The field evidence and whole‐rock chemistry reveal that these rocks have been crystallized from magmas derived from melting of subducted Anarak oceanic crust. This study reveals that melting of garnet amphibolite was an important element of continent formation in the study area.