基于GIS的洪水风险图信息管理系统开发

阐述了基于GIS技术开发的洪水风险图信息管理系统的开发目标、开发环境,列举了系统常用的功能模块及具体功能,根据洪水风险图信息管理系统应具备的功能设计了系统的逻辑结构,并应用于连云港市洪水风险图信息管理系统,取得较好效果.     

GIS and Volcanic Risk Management

Volcanic catastrophes constitute a majorproblem in many developing and developed countries. Inrecent years population growth and the expansion ofsettlements and basic supply lines (e.g., water, gas,etc.) have greatly increased the impact of volcanicdisasters. Correct land-use planning is fundamental inminimising both loss of life and damage to property.In this contribution Geographical Information Systems(GIS), linked with remote sensing technology andtelecommunications/warning systems, have emerged asone of the most promising tools to support thedecision-making process. Some GIS are presented fortwo volcanic areas in Italy, Mt. Etna and Vesuvius.GIS role in risk management is then discussed, keepingin mind the different volcanic scenarios of effusiveand explosive phenomena. Mt. Etna system covers alarge area (more than 1,000 km²) potentiallyaffected by effusive phenomena (lava flows) whichcause damage to both houses and properties in general.No risk to life is expected. The time-scales of lavaflows allow, at least in principle, modification ofthe lava path by the building of artificial barriers.Vesuvius shows typically an explosive behaviour. Inthe case of a medium size explosive eruption, 600,000people would potentially have to be evacuated from anarea of about 200 km² around the Volcano, sincethey are exposed to ruinous, very fast phenomena likepyroclastic surges and flows, lahars, ash fallout,etc. Ash fallout and floods/lahars are also expectedin distal areas, between Vesuvius and Avellino,downwind of the volcano. GIS include digital elevationmodels, satellite images, volcanic hazard maps andvector data on natural and artificial features (energysupply lines, strategic buildings, roads, railways,etc.). The nature and the level of detail in the twodata bases are different, on the basis of thedifferent expected volcanic phenomena. The GIS havebeen planned: (a) for volcanic risk mitigation (hazard,value, vulnerability and risk map assessing), (b) toprovide suitable tools during an impending crisis, (c)to provide a basis for emergency plans.     

GIS Techniques for Mapping Groundwater Contamination Risk

The groundwater contamination risk map of a samplealluvial area was produced by using the IlwisGeographical Information System (GIS) to construct andto overlay thematic maps. The risk map has beenderived from the vulnerability map, the hazard map,where the potential contaminating sources wereidentified, and the socio-economic value of thegroundwater resource, represented by the wells. Thegroundwater quality map allowed thereliability of hazard and risk maps to be tested.The final map shows interesting results and stressesthe need for the GIS to test and improve on thegroundwater contamination risk assessment methods.     

Validation and Evaluation of Predictive Models in Hazard Assessment and Risk Management

The paper deals with the validation and evaluation of mathematical models in natural hazard analysis, with a special focus on establishing their predictive power. Although most of the tools and statistics available are common to general classification models, some peculiarities arise in the case of hazard assessment. This is due to the fact that the target for validation, the propensity to develop a dangerous characteristic, is not really known and must be estimated from a (usually) very small sample. This implies that the two types of errors (false positives and false negatives) should be given different meanings. Related to this, a very frequent situation is the presence of prevalence (different proportion of positive and negative cases) in the sample. It is shown that sample prevalence can have a dramatic effect in some very common validation statistics, like the confusion matrix and model efficiency. Here some statistics based on the confusion matrix are presented and discussed, and the use of threshold-independent approaches (especially the ROC plot) is shown. The ROC plot is also proposed as a convenient tool for decision-taking in a risk management context. A general scheme for hazard predictive modeling is finally proposed.     

长江防洪决策支持系统——决策方案管理系统

在分析防洪决策特点的基础上,以长江防洪决策支持系统为例,设计开发了具有生成新方案、删除旧方案、选择方案、选择模型、设置模型参数、运行模型、查询显示运行结果、给出方案描述、比较多种方案等功能的防洪决策方案管理系统(DCMS,Decision Case Management System),并对实现这一系统的技术途径作了描述.     

Volcanic Risk Assessment and Mapping in the Vesuvian Area Using GIS

This paper assesses the risk to people and property from lava flow hazard in the Vesuvian area of Italy using a Geographical Information System (GIS). The intense urbanisation and dense population near Mt. Vesuvius make the area very hazardous. Due to the large amount of available data, GIS is an essential tool to facilitate risk evaluation and constant monitoring of the zone. This analysis is based mainly on a lava flow hazard map of Mt. Vesuvius, determined from volcanic activity between 1631 and 1944. A land-use zonation map of the area was created in order to show areal distribution of the resources, built-up centres and population. For each of the 17 municipalities in the area, demographic and urban data were entered into the GIS database and linked to each appropriate geographic unit in order to create a set of reference maps at the 1:50 000 scale. The lava flow hazard map was overlain on the land use map, and spatial and numerical information of risk were extracted from the resulting maps.     

Interregional and Transnational Co-operation in River Basins – Chances to Improve Flood Risk Management?

In European river basins many flood management and protection measures are planned. However, the realisation of effective but space consuming measures such as retention areas and dike relocation mostly lags far behind time schedules. The development and set-up of an interregional and transnational basin-wide co-operation structure (“flood management alliance”) is substantial to realise catchment oriented flood management. In particular, this co-operation structure must involve spatial planning. The interregional and transnational co-operation structure establishes the framework for the joint accomplishment of instruments for flood risk management which is basin-wide agreed on. One of these instruments comprises financial compensations between downstream and upstream regions which shall improve the acceptance and the realisation of measures which bear disadvantages for the regions where measures are located. Existing and planned basin-wide co-operations in large transnational European river catchments demonstrate reasonable developments towards these goals. However, further efforts have to be made to exploit the chances interregional co-operation offers for improved flood risk management.     

The Development and Application of a Flood Risk Model for the Czech Republic

A flood risk model was developed for the Czech Republic to calculate the probability of insured losses from flood events. The model was GIS based, making use of a 100 m horizontal resolution DTM and a network of the major rivers in the country. A review of historical flooding was undertaken to define the worst and most widespread flood events. Synthetic flood events were generated based on a study of the spatial variation in magnitude of river flows from selected historical flood events going back to 1935. A total of 30 synthetic events were generated each providing peak flows at 25 gauging stations throughout the country. The flows were converted into flood levels using rating equations based on information provided by the Czech Hydrological and Meteorological Institute. The extent of and depth of flooding was mapped on a cell by cell basis by applying an automated procedure developed using the grid option within the Arc/Info GIS. The flood depths were combined with maps of the postal codes to define an average flood depth per post code. The model was calibrated using maps of the observed flood extents from 1997 and 2002.     

矿产资源勘查项目的地质灾害风险管理——以汶川大地震诱发的地质灾害对XX勘查项目影响为例

矿产资源勘查项目客观上面临地质灾害风险.本文以风险理论为主线,运用风险管理方法,通过理论演绎和案例分析,说明了加强矿产资源勘查项目地质灾害风险管理的必要性及其过程、评价方法和指标等.     

Decision-support systems for groundwater protection: innovative tools for resource management

Governmental authorities are forced by law to make decisions within the framework of European, national and regional directives in the fields of spatial planning, groundwater and environmental protection. These tasks can be supported by a decision-support system, which integrates data from various sources and helps to make decision processes more effective and transparent. Basic work for such a decision support system has been done in a transnational and interdisciplinary project (Interreg II C: KATER), including metadata definition, metadata system, cartographic tools and GIS tools. The direct integration of these tools and information in the decision process will be implemented in the next few years (project KATER II).     

基于GIS的工程勘察成果一体化管理

提出以数据库与GIS技术为支撑的工程勘察成果管理方式,将数据库对海量数据高效管理的优势与GIS对空间数据的强大处理能力结合起来,完成对勘察数据、报告、图表、图像等成果信息的集成管理,不仅满足成果一体化管理的要求,提高成果数据的利用效率,而且为勘察信息的数据挖掘与知识发现、专家库建立等高级应用提供基础.以实际系统建设为例,介绍了一体化信息管理系统的架构模式、实施方案及系统功能.     

防洪系统风险决策与管理的研究现状分析

从防洪系统风险的基本概念出发，分析了防洪风险的性质，在洪水风险管理、防洪堤、水库大坝以及其他建筑物工程风险、洪水预报调度风险等诸多方面分析了当前的研究情况，对防洪系统的风险管理提出了几点建议。     

Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Risk Assessment of Dike Rings in the Netherlands

Current flood protection policies in the Netherlands are based on design water levels. This concept does not allow for a proper evaluation of costs and benefits of flood protection. Hence, research is being carried out on the introduction of a flood risk approach, which looks into both the probability of flooding and the consequences of flooding. This research is being carried out within the framework of a major project called the Floris project (FLOod RISk in the Netherlands). To assess the probability of flooding the Floris project distinguishes different failure modes for dikes and structures within the dike ring. Based on a probabilistic analysis of both loads and resistance the probability of failure is determined for each failure mode. Subsequently the probabilities of failure for different failure modes and dike sections are integrated into an estimate of the probability of flooding of the dike ring as a whole. In addition the Floris project looks into the different consequences of flooding, specifically the economic damages and the number of casualties to be expected in case of flooding of a particular dike ring. The paper describes the approach in the Floris project to assess the flood risk of dike rings in the Netherlands. One of the characteristics of the Floris project is the explicit attention to different types of uncertainties in assessing the probability of flooding. The paper discusses the different starting-points adopted and presents an outline on how the Floris project will deal with uncertainties in the analysis of weak spots in a dike ring as well as in the cost benefit analysis of flood alleviation measures.     

Management of Historical Seismic Data Using GIS: The Island of Ischia (Southern Italy)

This paper presents the results of the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) inmanaging information on the effects of earthquakes in historical times on the island ofIschia. The unpublished sources on the Casamicciola earthquake of 28 July 1883 andthe extensive bibliography documenting the island's seismicity from 1228 showed theneed to proceed towards a type of data storage that would also allow management ofthe same data. Application of GIS techniques allowed us to insert, extract, handle,manage and analyse the data for the zoning of seismic damage on the island of Ischia.The end-product consists of information layers, such as maps of isoseismals, the damage, and hazard involved, as well as numerical tables associated to maps.The study was developed using GIS Arc-View 3.2 software (ESRI) and is structured inthematic vectorial levels and rasters. The overlapping themes constitute a cartographicdata base of the island. The damaged sites are located on a map at a scale of 1:10,000,with all the information on the 1883 earthquake (total number of houses, number ofcollapsed houses, collapsed or damaged rooms, photographs, plans of buildings, etc.)being associated to each site. The GIS is structured in such a way as to be able to beintegrated with further georeferenced data and with other databases. It is thus able toprovide support both for in-depth analyses of the dynamic processes on the island andextend the assessment to other natural risks (volcanic, landslides, flooding, etc.).     

基于GIS技术的地质灾害风险评价 ——以北川县开坪乡为例

地质灾害防治的一条有效途径就是进行地质灾害区划与风险研究,进一步圈定地质灾害高风险区域,可节约防治成本并达到风险评价的效果。北川县开坪乡地质地貌复杂,发育各类地质灾害,本文在地质灾害详细调查的基础上,拟对区内地质灾害进行风险性评价,以单个滑坡的体积、面积、高差、河流距离、岩性、变形迹象等因子作为分析单元,实现大比例尺范围内滑坡危险性区划;制作出区域内的地质灾害危险性图件与易发性图件;根据遥感影像解译,原有资料查询以及实际考察,制作开坪乡研究区域斜坡类型分布图;结合单个滑坡危险性及易损性,区域危险性及易损性,综合制作开坪乡区域风险性图件,完成对研究区进行有效地地质灾害风险区划。     

Contribution of Geographical Information Systems to the Management of Volcanic Crises

The incorporation of a set ofcomputer-based tools, such as Geographical InformationSystems and physical models, to the field of riskassessment, introduces a new perspective in thevolcanic risk maps production, increasing the analysisand modelling capabilities available through theapplication of conventional methodologies. Amethodology adapted to the requirements andcharacteristics of the new operating environment hasbeen applied at Tenerife island (Canary Islands,Spain) to carry out a study devoted to analyse thesuitability of these tools for near real-timemanagement of volcanic crises. With this in mind, aseries of potential eruption scenarios have beenselected to identify and characterise which elementsat risk would prove most vulnerable against a specificvolcanic phenomenon, depending on the socio-economiccharacteristics of the area affected and the resultingdistribution of the volcanic products. This kind ofinformation is fundamental to update, adapt or produceeffective risk management and emergency plans orprotocols, where the measures to mitigate or fightagainst a specific volcanic disaster have to be taken,incorporating the existing knowledge of the phenomenonbehaviour and taking into account their potentialeffects on the area of interest.     

Increase of Flood Risk due to Urbanisation: A Canadian Example

There has been increasing concern among the government officials who deal with emergency preparedness and natural disasters that increasing urbanisation is enhancing the risk from river flooding in urban areas. This study concerns such a risk for the City of London in the province of Ontario in Canada. It has been shown that between 1974 and 2000 there has been a considerably elevated risk from floods due to heavy urbanisation in the watershed of the Upper Thames River, of which the City of London is a part. Databases were prepared making use of satellite remote sensing technology on landuse classification and this information was integrated with meteorological and hydrological data records and analysed to obtain a quantitative estimate of the potential risk from river floods to London.     

河北平原区域地下水资源决策支持系统设计与开发

以河北平原水资源决策支持系统为例，介绍在地理信息系统平台上，如何结合地下水资源管理、决策的具体需求，构建一个可以实现对地下水资源进行管理、决策的支持系统，并系统介绍了系统平台的选取、决策支持系统结构的组成框架、空间数据库的组成等基本思路，重点介绍了 模型库、方法库的设计与开发技术过程，最后分析了河北平原区域地下水资源决策支持系统的应用，认为实例对类似地区建立水资源与环境管理的决策支持系统有很好的借鉴作用。     

An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments

This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed.     

深部水热型地热潜力区的GIS预测模型——以土耳其西安纳托利亚地区为例

开发地热资源有着很大的不确定性和很高的经济风险,需要建立可靠的数学预测模型以确定潜在地热区。通过对地震震中、断层、布格重力异常、磁异常和红外遥感5个与地热密切相关的因素进行整合,建立了地热潜力区的数学预测模型;并以土耳其西安纳托利亚地区为例,对模型的优劣性进行分析评价。运用指数叠加模型和证据权重模型分别建立地热潜力区图,预测成功指数表明证据权重模型的预测结果更为准确。其中,中高潜力区总面积为26 529 km²,占总面积的31.14%,包含39个地热点,占总地热点的50.65%。预测结果显示潜在地热区位于Ayd?n,Denizli,Manisa和Bal?kesir,其中前2个地区的地热已经被开发利用。本研究可以在地热勘探阶段确定潜在地热区,降低经济风险。