Uk perspectives of the environmental impact of water resource developments

Differing arrangements exist for water resources regulation in the four nations of the UK. This account is largely concerned with England and Wales where a unitary regulation of water resources permits a coherent view of developments, although some reference is made to Scotland and Northern Ireland.Following a review in 1987 of compensation flows from UK reservoirs attention has more recently been focused on a broader range of water resource developments. The more obscured impacts of groundwater developments is now attracting the greater attention. Measures of environmental impact are confused by a wide number of environmental variables and the lack of consistent observation of these through the period of disturbance. Uncertainties have been compounded during studies by the coincidence of a major drought period with consequent accentuation of seasons with prolonged river lowflows.Historically water resource developments have been aimed by Engineers to maximise the production of usable water. The value of the resource in situ to the natural or previous managed environment will have had its defenders but that value could be degraded in pursuit of the primary goal. Recent convention and now statutory requirement for environmental impact assessment demands the involvement of inter-disciplinary study teams. This welcome practice remains bedeviled by the lack of sound quantitative criteria for water resource engineering design.There is no absence of general scientific understanding of environmental impacts but the need remains for the establishment of criteria and regular analytical procedures with which to link hydrological regimes with ecological success. Much work is being done in the UK to address this matter and there is increasing collaboration between Hydrologists and Biologists to seek constructive remedies.     

Trends in the levels of Escherichia coli in commercially harvested bivalve shellfish from England and Wales, 1999–2008

Temporal trends in Escherichia coli concentrations in bivalve shellfish were examined using data collected from 57 production areas around the coast of England and Wales during 1999–2008. Downward trends were detected in annual geometric means of E. coli in shellfish from 12% of the sampling points. The percentage of class B areas (E. coli ⩽ 4600/100 g shellfish in 90% of samples) increased from 69% to 86% during the 10-year period. The improvement in the microbial quality of shellfish is associated with sewerage improvement schemes largely implemented during 2000–2005. Upward trends were detected in 9% of the points. The causes of these increases are not known. It is recommended that quantitative sanitary profiling of shellfish waters and cost–benefit appraisal over long-term planning horizons are considered as part of sewerage investment programmes under the Water Framework Directive. This would allow greater scope to secure protection and improvement of shellfish water quality.     

River temperature regimes of England and Wales: spatial patterns,inter‐annual variability and climatic sensitivity

Identification of the most sensitive hydrological regions to a changing climate is essential to target adaptive management strategies. This study presents a quantitative assessment of spatial patterns, inter‐annual variability and climatic sensitivity of the shape (form) and magnitude (size) of annual river/stream water temperature regimes across England and Wales. Classification of long‐term average (1989–2006) annual river (air) temperature regime dynamics at 88 (38) stations within England and Wales identified spatially differentiable regions. Emergent river temperature regions were used to structure detailed hydroclimatological analyses of a subset of 38 paired river and air temperature stations. The shape and magnitude of air and water temperature regimes were classified for individual station‐years; and a sensitivity index (SI, based on conditional probability) was used to quantify the strength of associations between river and air temperature regimes. The nature and strength of air–river temperature regime links differed between regions. River basin properties considered to be static over the timescale of the study were used to infer modification of air–river temperature links by basin hydrological processes. The strongest links were observed in regions where groundwater contributions to runoff (estimated by basin permeability) were smallest and water exposure time to the atmosphere (estimated by basin area) was greatest. These findings provide a new large‐scale perspective on the hydroclimatological controls driving river thermal dynamics and, thus, yield a scientific basis for informed management and regulatory decisions concerning river temperature within England and Wales. © 2013 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A broad‐scale assessment of the effect of improved soil management on catchment baseflow index

Although the importance of sustainable soil management is recognized, there are many threats to soils including widespread soil structural degradation. This reduces infiltration through the soil surface and/or the percolation of water through the soil profile, with important consequences for crop yields, nutrient cycling and the hydrological response of catchments. This article describes a broad‐scale modelling approach to assess the potential effect that improved agricultural soil management, through reduced soil structural degradation, may have on the baseflow index (BFI) of catchments across England and Wales. A daily soil–water balance model was used to simulate the indicative BFI of 45 696 thirty‐year model runs for different combinations of soil type, soil/field condition, land cover class and climate which encapsulate the variability across England and Wales. The indicative BFI of catchments was then calculated by upscaling the results by spatial weighting. WaSim model outputs of indicative BFI were within the 95% confidence intervals of the national‐average BFI values given for the Hydrology of Soil Type (HOST ? ) classes for 26 of the 28 classes. At the catchment scale, the concordance correlation coefficient between the BFI from the WaSim model outputs and those derived from HOST was 0·83. Plausible improvements in agricultural soil/field condition produced modest simulated increases of up to 10% in the indicative BFI in most catchments across England and Wales, although for much of southern and northern England the increases were less than 5%. The results suggest that improved soil management might partially mitigate the expected adverse effects of climate change on baseflow to rivers. Healthy, well‐functioning soils produce many additional benefits such as better agricultural yields and reduced pollutant movement, so improved soil management should provide win‐win opportunities for society, agricultural systems and the environment and provide resilience to some of the expected environmental impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enlightenment and the GM floodplain

In the last 400 years floodplains in England and Wales have changed drastically. This has been steered by changes brought about through diverse human activities including river regulation for transport, water abstraction and power generation; mining, industrial and urban pollution; the spread of buildings and transport link construction; land drainage; minimization of flood risk through engineering; floodplain gravel extraction; and environment redesign for recreation and conservation. Adding to the evolving complexity of floodplains, a sequence of post‐Enlightenment impacts from the earliest of industrial societies provides an interesting precursor for other transforming global systems. Historical and sedimentological evidence for this history is available, despite limited quantitative monitoring data. A four‐phase floodplain transformation model is presented for the period. Novel patterns of erosion and sedimentation (in location and quality) have emerged as geomorphological processes have continued in ‘genetically‐modified’ form. Problems building up for the future are likely to rest particularly with more extreme events. Understanding the last four centuries of floodplain history can aid enlightened remedies and adaptations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional and temporal characteristics of <Emphasis Type="Italic">bovine tuberculosis</Emphasis> of cattle in Great Britain

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic disease in cattle that causes a serious food security challenge to the agricultural industry in terms of dairy and meat production. Spatio-temporal disease analysis in terms of time trends and geographic disparities of disease dynamics can provide useful insights into the overall efficiency of control efforts as well as the relative efficiency of different management measures towards eradication. In GB, Scotland has had a risk based surveillance testing policy under which high risk herds are tested frequently, and in September 2009 was officially declared as TB free. Wales have had an annual or more frequent testing policy for all cattle herds since January 2010, while in England several herds are still tested every 4 years except some high TB prevalence areas where annual testing is applied. Time series analysis using publicly available data for total tests on herds, total cattle slaughtered, new herd incidents, and herds not TB free, were analysed globally for GB and locally for the constituent regions of Wales, Scotland, West, North, and East England. After detecting trends over time, underlying regional differences were compared with the testing policies in the region. Total cattle slaughtered are decreasing in Wales, Scotland and West England, but increasing in the North and East English regions. New herd incidents, i.e., disease incidence, are decreasing in Wales, Scotland, West English region, but increasing in North and East English regions. Herds not TB free, i.e., disease prevalence, are increasing in West, North, and East English regions, while they are decreasing in Wales and Scotland. Total cattle slaughtered were positively correlated with total tests in the West, North, and East English regions, with high slopes of regression indicating that additional testing is likely to facilitate the eradication of the disease. There was no correlation between total cattle slaughtered and total tests on herds in Wales indicating that herds are tested frequent enough in order to detect all likely cases and so control TB. The main conclusion of the analysis conducted here is that more frequent testing is leading to lower TB infections in cattle both in terms of TB prevalence as well as TB incidence.     

Understanding airborne radiometric survey signals across part of eastern England

A low‐level airborne radiometric survey provides data on the concentrations of gammaemitting elements including potassium (K), thorium (Th) and uranium (U) in the upper half metre of the soil. Where weathering has not penetrated much beyond this depth, as in the young soils that cover much of England and Wales, the signal is likely to be related to the soil's clay content and its parent material. In these situations radiometric survey could be valuable for mapping soil digitally. We wished to understand how the radiometric signal relates to parent material and soil geochemistry, and to identify the spatial structure, if not the sources, of any unexplained variation. We analysed the joint spatial variation of the airborne gamma signal and high‐resolution soil geochemical survey data across part of eastern England by modelling their coregionalization. We also used reml to assess the joint effects of soil geochemistry and parent material on the radiometric signals of K and Th. The overall correlations of radiometric estimates with soil survey data for K and Th were large, as were the structural correlations for components of variation spatially dependent up to 49 and 16 km for K and Th respectively. This suggests that the radiometric signals for these two elements provide effective estimates of the amounts in the soil and their patterns of distribution. Although class of parent material accounted for a third of of the variance in the radiometric K signal, much of the variation within the classes is explained by geochemistry, suggesting that subtler changes can be detected. A larger proportion of the Th signal was accounted for by parent material. This supports our expectation that radiometric signals for K and Th provide information on parent material in the young landscapes of England and Wales. We are therefore confident that airborne radiometric surveys would be useful for making thematic maps of soil, particularly the soil's texture and closely related properties across England and Wales. Copyright © 2007 Natural Environment Research Council. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of nutrient enrichment in estuaries: susceptibility to eutrophication

The main aim of this study was to develop a generic tool for assessing risks and impacts of nutrient enrichment in estuaries. A simple model was developed to predict the magnitude of primary production by phytoplankton in different estuaries from nutrient input (total available nitrogen and/or phosphorus) and to determine likely trophic status. In the model, primary production is strongly influenced by water residence times and relative light regimes. The model indicates that estuaries with low and moderate light levels are the least likely to show a biological response to nutrient inputs. Estuaries with a good light regime are likely to be sensitive to nutrient enrichment, and to show similar responses, mediated only by site-specific geomorphological features. Nixon's scale was used to describe the relative trophic status of estuaries, and to set nutrient and chlorophyll thresholds for assessing trophic status. Estuaries identified as being eutrophic may not show any signs of eutrophication. Additional attributes need to be considered to assess negative impacts. Here, likely detriment to the oxygen regime was considered, but is most applicable to areas of restricted exchange. Factors which limit phytoplankton growth under high nutrient conditions (water residence times and/or light availability) may favour the growth of other primary producers, such as macrophytes, which may have a negative impact on other biological communities. The assessment tool was developed for estuaries in England and Wales, based on a simple 3-category typology determined by geomorphology and relative light levels. Nixon's scale needs to be validated for estuaries in England and Wales, once more data are available on light levels and primary production.     

Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales

Changes in water temperature can have important consequences for aquatic ecosystems, with some species being sensitive even to small shifts in temperature during some or all of their life cycle. While many studies report increasing regional and global air temperatures, evidence of changes in river water temperature has, thus far, been site specific and often from sites heavily influenced by human activities that themselves could lead to warming. Here we present a tiered assessment of changing river water temperature covering England and Wales with data from 2773 locations. We use novel statistical approaches to detect trends in irregularly sampled spot measurements taken between 1990 and 2006. During this 17‐year period, on average, mean water temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year (±0.002 °C), and positive changes in water temperature were observed at 2385 (86%) sites. Examination of catchments where there has been limited human influence on hydrological response shows that changes in river flow have had little influence on these water temperature trends. In the absence of other systematic influences on water temperature, it is inferred that anthropogenically driven climate change is driving some of this trend in water temperature. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Aeolian Sky packaged chemicals pollution incident

Three and a half thousand packages of chemicals, including at least 956 containing hazardous substances were washed ashore on to the beaches of southern England. They were believed at the time to have come from the wreck of the Aeolian Sky. There is now a strong suspicion that half the packages, including 32 canisters of arsenic trichloride, were lost from the deck cargo of another vessel in the English Channel. Despite difficulties in identifying the contents of many unlabelled chemical packages found on the shore, most were recovered during clearance operations by Local Authorities. Although there was no evidence of any ecological damage, 20 people were taken to hospital for treatment or precautionary medical examinations following contact with opened or leaking packages. This incident raised questions regarding international reporting procedures, liability and compensation arrangements following losses of packaged chemical cargoes at sea.     

Embryo abnormalities in the periwinkle,Littorina ‘saxatilis’, as indicators of stress in polluted marine environments

Brood pouches of periwinkles belonging to the Littorina ‘saxatilis’ species complex usually contain, in addition to the five normal stages in development, a proportion of embryos that are morphologically abnormal. The frequency of adults with a high percentage of abnormals in their brood pouches reflects to a great extent the degree of environmental stress, natural and anthropogenic, to which the adult population has been exposed.Collections of this gastropod from coastal populations along the Gower coast, in South Wales, disclosed higher frequencies of abnormal embryos from sites exposed to pollutant-laden, residual water currents in Swansea Bay, than was recorded from a clean, coastal population at Rhossili, 26 km west of Swansea, where frequencies were similar to those recorded from other unpolluted, coastal populations elsewhere in the British Isles.While environmental water quality is probably a dominating factor in determining this effect, the presence of a low frequency of high scoring individuals in clean environments points to this phenomenon having a complex aetiology. It is suggested that the underlying causal factor may be one of disease, which is present in all L. ‘saxatilis’ populations, and which is triggered by factors related to reduced environmental water quality.     

Water quality, nutrients and the water framework directive in an agricultural region: The lower Humber Rivers, northern England

The water quality of rivers in the eastern part of the Humber Basin, north-eastern England is described from a baseflow survey (11–13 August 2006) of a wide range of water quality determinants, and long-term nutrient records of the Environment Agency of England and Wales (EA). The baseflow survey shows that the rivers are oversaturated with respect to dissolved CO₂ and calcite. They are sodium, potassium, lithium, boron, chloride, sulphate and fluoride bearing from a combination of atmospheric, within-catchment, agricultural and sewage effluent sources. Nitrate concentrations are uniform for rivers draining permeable bedrock but decrease for clay drainage areas. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations are variable across the catchments reflecting the importance and variability of point sources and within-river processing. The EA data show annual oscillations for both NO₃ and SRP concentrations. Average NO₃ concentrations vary between 3.3 and 18.8 mgN/l and concentrations are low during the summer months. Average SRP concentrations vary between 23 and 1959 μg/l. Highest SRP concentrations generally occur when there is effluent input from sewage treatment works and agricultural point sources (e.g. overflow from slurry tanks, farmyard washings). Despite many of the rivers being nutrient rich, they are generally of good biological quality when point source inputs are not important.     

High resolution climate change scenarios: implications for British runoff

Nationwide changes in spatially well‐resolved patterns of British runoff were investigated under two climate change scenarios derived from general circulation model (GCM) output. A physical process‐based hydrological model (HYSIM) was used to simulate effective runoff across a 10 km×10 km British grid under baseline and future climate conditions. A gridded baseline climatology for precipitation and the Penman variables was used to validate HYSIM across Britain using grid cell‐specific parameters derived from land use and soil type. The climate change scenarios were constructed from the Hadley Centre's high resolution equilibrium GCM (UKHI) for 2050 and transient GCM (UKTR) for 2065. Future effective runoff was simulated under both scenarios by applying changes in precipitation and the Penman variables to the baseline climatology. Annual effective runoff is shown to increase throughout most of Britain under the UKHI scenario for 2050, whilst it decreases over much of England and Wales under the UKTR scenario for 2065. Both scenarios show an increasing gradient in runoff between a wetter northern Britain and a drier south‐eastern Britain. This gradient is more pronounced under the UKTR scenario. Changes in effective runoff for winter and summer show an increase in seasonality under both scenarios. Winter runoff is shown to increase most in northern Britain under both scenarios, whilst summer runoff is shown to experience major reductions over much of England and Wales under the UKTR scenario. If these simulations are realized, Britain may expect an accentuated north to south‐east imbalance in available water resources. If this is combined with a temporal imbalance suggested by the increased seasonality, there could be problems for the future management of British water resources. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of monitoring data for identifying factors influencing phytoplankton bloom dynamics in the eutrophic Taw Estuary, SW England

Using the Taw Estuary as an example, data routinely collected by the Environment Agency for England and Wales over the period 1990-2004 were interrogated to identify the drivers of excessive algal growth. The estuary was highly productive with chlorophyll concentrations regularly exceeding 100 μg L⁻¹, mostly during periods of low freshwater input from the River Taw when estuarine water residence times were longest. However, algal growth in mid estuary was often inhibited by ammonia inputs from the adjacent sewage treatment works. The reported approach demonstrates the value of applying conventional statistical analyses in a structured way to existing monitoring data and is recommended as a useful tool for the rapid assessment of eutrophication. However, future estuarine monitoring should include the collection of dissolved organic nutrient data and targeted high temporal resolution data because the drivers of eutrophication are complex and often very specific to a particular estuary.     

Assessing the suitability of OSPAR EcoQOs for eutrophication vs ICES criteria for England and Wales

This paper provides a preliminary evaluation of the suitability of OSPAR Ecological Quality objectives for eutrophication for coastal and offshore waters of England and Wales on the basis of ICES criteria. In principle, EcoQOs are easy to understand, but responses to nutrient enrichment are complex. Few studies provide unequivocal evidence of links between inputs and response. Monitoring is generally feasible and in place, but needs to be improved. The best EcoQO is winter nutrient concentrations. Chlorophyll concentrations are a good indicator in environments susceptible to nutrient enrichment. The EcoQO for zoobenthos/fish kills potentially meets all criteria for a good indicator; EcoQOs for phytoplankton indicator species, oxygen concentrations and zoobenthos changes do not. Greater emphasis needs to be placed on seasonal effects of nutrient inputs and phytoplankton response, natural susceptibility of different water bodies, differences between coastal and offshore environments, and developing longer time series of data.     

EXPORTS OF ORGANIC CARBON IN BRITISH RIVERS

This study provides the first detailed estimate of riverine organic carbon fluxes in British rivers, as well as highlighting major gaps in organic carbon data in national archives. Existing data on organic carbon and suspended solids concentrations collected between 1989 and 1993, during routine monitoring by the River Purification Boards (RPBs) in Scotland and the National River Authorities (NRAs) in England and Wales, were used with annual mean flows to estimate fluxes of dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) in British rivers. Riverine DOC exports during 1993 varied from 7·7–103·5 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, with a median flux of 31·9 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the 85 rivers for which data were available. There was a trend for DOC fluxes to increase from the south and east to the north and west. A predictive model based on mean soil carbon storage in 17 catchments, together with regional precipitation totals, explained 94% of the variation in the riverine DOC exports in 1993. This model was used to predict riverine DOC fluxes in regions where no organic carbon data were available. Calculated and predicted fluxes were combined to produce an estimate for exports of DOC to tidal waters in British rivers during 1993 of 0·68±0·07 Mt. Of this total, rivers in Scotland accounted for 53%, England 38% and Wales 9%. Scottish blanket peats would appear to be the largest single source of DOC exports in British rivers. An additional 0·20 Mt of organic carbon were estimated to have been exported in particulate form in 1993, approximately two–thirds of which was contributed by English rivers. It is suggested that riverine losses of organic carbon have the potential to affect the long-term dynamics of terrestrial organic carbon pools in Britain and that rivers may regulate increases in soil carbon pools brought about by climate change. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Protein‐like fluorescence intensity as a possible tool for determining river water quality

The results of a comparison between chemical water quality determinants and river water fluorescence on the River Tyne, NE England, demonstrate that tryptophan‐like fluorescence intensity shows statistically significant relationships between nitrate, phosphate, ammonia, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and dissolved oxygen. Tryptophan‐like fluorescence intensity at the 280 nm excitation/350 nm emission wavelength fluorescence centre correlates with both phosphate (r = 0·80) and nitrate (r = 0·87), whereas tryptophan‐like fluorescence intensity at the 220 nm excitation/350 nm emission wavelength centre correlates with BOD (r = 0·85), ammonia (r = 0·70) and dissolved oxygen (r = ?0·65). The strongest correlations are between tryptophan‐like fluorescence intensity and nitrate and phosphate, which in the Tyne catchment derive predominantly from point and diffuse source sewage inputs. The correlation between BOD and the tryptophan‐like fluorescence intensity suggests that this fluorescence centre is related to the bioavailable or labile dissolved organic matter pool. The weakest correlations are observed between tryptophan‐like fluorescence intensity and ammonia concentration and dissolved oxygen. The weaker correlation with ammonia is due to removal of the ammonia signal by wastewater treatment, and that with dissolved oxygen due to the natural aeration of the river such that this is not a good indicator of water quality. The observed correlations only hold true when treated sewage, sewerage overflows or cross connections, or agricultural organic pollutants dominate the water quality—this is not true for two sites where airport deicer (propylene glycol, which is non‐fluorescent) or landfill leachate (which contains high concentrations of humic and fulvic‐like fluorescent DOM) dominate the dissolved organic matter in the river. Mean annual tryptophan‐like fluorescence intensity agrees well with the General Water Quality Assessment as determined by the England and Wales environmental regulators, the Environment Agency. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The extent of soil erosion in upland England and Wales

Following recommendations by the 19th Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, the area, causes and rates of upland soil erosion in England and Wales were investigated between 1997 and 1999. This paper describes the methods and results of the field survey of 1999 in which the extent of eroded ground was determined. 2. The area of degraded soil and the volume of eroded material were both determined from the dimensions of individual erosion features at 399 field sites located on an orthogonal grid across the uplands. Using measurements of individual erosion features, degraded soil extent in upland England and Wales was estimated at almost 25 000 ha, 2·46 per cent of the total upland area surveyed. Half this eroded area was revegetated and no longer subject to continued accelerated soil loss in 1999. The total volume of eroded material was estimated at 0·284 km³. Although deposition of eroded material occurred within 20 per cent of eroded field sites, the total volume of redeposited material was less than 1 per cent of the total volume of eroded soil. 3. Erosion was more extensive on peat soils than on dry, wet mineral or wet peaty mineral soils. In addition, the higher incidence of erosion at high altitudes and on low slopes reinforced the relationship between erosion and areas of peat formation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment,UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD

The potential impact of climate change on areas of strategic importance for water resources remains a concern. Here, river flow projections for the River Medway, above Teston in southeast England are presented, which is just such an area of strategic importance. The river flow projections use climate inputs from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3) for the time period 1960–2080 (a subset of the early release UKCP09 projections). River flow predictions are calculated using CATCHMOD, the main river flow prediction tool of the Environment Agency (EA) of England and Wales. In order to use this tool in the best way for climate change predictions, model setup and performance are analysed using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model's representation of hydrological processes is discussed and the direct percolation and first linear storage constant parameters are found to strongly affect model results in a complex way, with the former more important for low flows and the latter for high flows. The uncertainty in predictions resulting from the hydrological model parameters is demonstrated and the projections of river flow under future climate are analysed. A clear climate change impact signal is evident in the results with a persistent lowering of mean daily river flows for all months and for all projection time slices. Results indicate that a projection of lower flows under future climate is valid even taking into account the uncertainties considered in this modelling chain exercise. The model parameter uncertainty becomes more significant under future climate as the river flows become lower. This has significant implications for those making policy decisions based on such modelling results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using geographically weighted regression to explore the spatially heterogeneous spread of bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales

An understanding of the factors that affect the spread of endemic bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is critical for the development of measures to stop and reverse this spread. Analyses of spatial data need to account for the inherent spatial heterogeneity within the data, or else spatial autocorrelation can lead to an overestimate of the significance of variables. This study used three methods of analysis—least-squares linear regression with a spatial autocorrelation term, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis—to identify the factors that influence the spread of endemic bTB at a local level in England and Wales. The linear regression and GWR methods demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial differences in risk factors for bTB, and showed some consistency in the identification of certain factors related to flooding, disease history and the presence of multiple genotypes of bTB. This is the first attempt to explore the factors associated with the spread of endemic bTB in England and Wales using GWR. This technique improves on least-squares linear regression approaches by identifying regional differences in the factors associated with bTB spread. However, interpretation of these complex regional differences is difficult and the approach does not lend itself to predictive models which are likely to be of more value to policy makers. Methods such as BRT may be more suited to such a task. Here we have demonstrated that GWR and BRT can produce comparable outputs.