Seismotectonics and large earthquake generation in the Himalayan region

Bounded by the western and eastern syntaxes, the Himalayan region has experienced at least five M ~ 8 earthquakes during a seismically very active phase from 1897 through 1952. However, there has been a paucity of M ~ 8 earthquakes since 1952. Examining of various catalogues and seismograms from the Gottingen Observatory, it is established that this quiescence of M ~ 8 earthquakes is real. While it has not been possible to forecast earthquakes, there has been a success in making a medium term forecast of an M 7.3 earthquake in the adjoining Indo-Burmese arc. Similarly we find that in the central Himalayan region, earthquakes of M > 6.5 have been preceded by seismic swarms and quiescences. In the recent past, based on GPS data, estimates have been made of the accumulated strains and it is postulated that a number of M ~ 8 earthquakes are imminent in the Himalayan region. We examine these estimates and find that while earthquakes of M ~ 8 may occur in the region, however, the available GPS data and their interpretation do not necessarily suggest their size and time of occurrence and whether an earthquake in a particular segment will occur sooner in comparison to that in the neighboring segment. We also comment on the inference of occurrence of M ~ 8 earthquakes based on M8 algorithm for the region. We conclude that while an M ~ 8 earthquake could occur any time anywhere in the Himalayan region, there is no indication as of now as to where and when it would occur. We impress on the need for preparedness to mitigate the pending earthquake disaster in the region.     

The basic parameters of acceleration spectra for M > 5 earthquakes in the Baikal Rift Zone

We consider the acceleration spectra of S waves from M = 5-6.5 earthquakes that occurred in three regions of the Baikal Rift Zone. The main characteristics of the shape and level of the spectra are given, and the difference between the spectra in the relative positions of the focus and seismic station is shown. Average acceleration spectra have been obtained for all three regions with regard to shape and the magnitude of the earthquakes. The spectra have been transformed so that they correspond to the accelerations of M = 6.5 and M = 7.5 earthquakes. The conclusion is made that the spectra not necessarily retain their shape even with the same movements in the focus.     

The large aftershocks triggered by the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake,Japan

The Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that occurred off the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, was followed by thousands of aftershocks, both near the plate interface and in the crust of inland eastern Japan. In this paper, we report on two large, shallow crustal earthquakes that occurred near the Ibaraki-Fukushima prefecture border, where the background seismicity was low prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Using densely spaced geodetic observations (GPS and InSAR datasets), we found that two large aftershocks in the Iwaki and Kita-Ibarake regions (hereafter referred to as the Iwaki earthquake and the Kita-Ibarake earthquake) produced 2.1 m and 0.44 m of motion in the line-of-sight (LOS), respectively. The azimuth-offset method was used to obtain the preliminary location of the fault traces. The InSAR-based maximum offset and trace of the faults that produced the Iwaki earthquake are consistent with field observations. The fault location and geometry of these two earthquakes are constrained by a rectangular dislocation model in a multilayered elastic half-space, which indicates that the maximum slips for the two earthquakes are 3.28 m and 0.98 m, respectively. The Coulomb stress changes were calculated for the faults following the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on the modeled slip along the fault planes. The resulting Coulomb stress changes indicate that the stresses on the faults increased by up to 1.1 MPa and 0.7 MPa in the Iwaki and Kita-Ibarake regions, respectively, suggesting that the Tohoku-Oki earthquake triggered the two aftershocks, supporting the results of seismic tomography.     

The optimal windows for seismically-enhanced gold precipitation in the epithermal environment

Epithermal gold (Au) deposits result from the combination of a sustained flux of metal-rich fluids and an efficient precipitation mechanism. Earthquakes may trigger gold precipitation by rapid loss of fluid pressure but their efficiency and time-integrated contribution to gold endowment are poorly constrained. In order to quantify the feedbacks between earthquake-driven fracturing and gold precipitation in the shallow crust, we studied the gold-rich fluids in the active Tolhuaca geothermal system, located in the highly seismic Southern Andes of Chile. We combined temperature measurements in the deep wells with fluid inclusion data, geochemical analyses of borehole fluids and numerical simulations of coupled heat and fluid flow to reconstruct the physical and chemical evolution of the hydrothermal reservoir. The effect of seismic perturbations on fluid parameters was constrained using a thermo-mechanical piston model that simulates the suction pump mechanism occurring in dilational jogs. Furthermore, we evaluated the impact of fluid parameters on gold precipitation by calculating the solubility of gold in pressure (P)–enthalpy (H) space. The reconstructed fluid conditions at Tolhuaca indicate that single-phase convective fluids feeding the hydrothermal reservoir reach the two-phase boundary with a high gold budget (~ 1–5 ppb) at saturated liquid pressures between 20 and 100 bar (210 °C < T_sat < 310 °C). We show that if hydrothermal fluids reach this optimal threshold for gold precipitation at a temperature near 250 °C, small adiabatic pressure drops (~ 10 bar) triggered by transient fault-rupture can produce precipitation of 95% of the dissolved gold. Our results at the active Tolhuaca geothermal system indicate that subtle, externally-forced perturbations – equivalent to low magnitude earthquakes (Mw < 2) of a hydrothermal reservoir under optimal conditions – may significantly enhance gold precipitation rates in the shallow crust and lead to overall increases in metal endowment over time.     

Seismicity and fault aseismic deformation caused by fluid injection in decametric in-situ experiments

Seismicity induced by fluid perturbations became an important societal concern since felt earthquakes (M_w up to 6) occurred after anthropogenic activities. In order to mitigate the risks associated with undesired seismicity, as well as to be able to use the micro-seismicity as a probe for in-depth investigation of fluid-driven processes, it is of crucial importance to understand the links between seismicity, fluid pressure and flow. We have developed a series of in-situ, decameter-scale experiments of fault zone reactivation by controlled fluid injection, in order to improve the near-source geophysical and hydromechanical observations. The deployed geophysical monitoring close to the injection allows one to cover the full frequency range of the fault responses from the static deformation to the very high-frequency seismic emissions (up to 4 kHz). Here, we focus on the microseismicity (M_w ∼ –4 to –3) recorded during two fluid injection experiments in low-permeable shale and highly-fractured limestone formations. In both experiments, the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic events, the energy balance, and the seismic velocity changes of the fractured medium show that most of the deformation does not actually emit seismic signals. The induced deformation is mainly aseismic. Based on these high-resolution multiparametric observations in the near-field, we therefore proposed a new model for injection-induced seismicity: the seismicity is not directly induced by the increasing fluid pressure, but it is rather triggered by the stress perturbations transferred from the aseismic motion caused by the injection.     

Evidence for Holocene activity of the Yilan-Yitong fault,northeastern section of the Tan-Lu fault zone in Northeast China

The Tan-Lu fault zone (TLFZ) is the largest of the major faults in eastern China. Many strong earthquakes have occurred on its section in North China, but no quake greater than M ⩾ 6 has been documented in history at its northeastern section, the Yilan-Yitong fault (YYF) in Northeast China. It is usually considered that this fault has been inactive since late Quaternary and incapable of generating moderate-sized quakes. This conclusion is, however, questioned by our recent work based on high-resolution satellite image interpretation and field investigation. We found a 70-km-long surface scarp near Fangzheng county in Heilongjiang province (HLJP) and a 20-km-long scarp near Shulan county in Jilin province (JLP), and both are associated with the YYF. The trenches across these two scarps reveal a ¹⁴C displacement date of 1730 ± 40 years BP at Fangzheng and of 4410 ± 30 years BP at Shulan. The dextral offsets of the Songhua River and Second Songhua River and nearly horizontal fault striations indicate that the new activity of the YYF has been dominated by dextral strike slipping with a normal component. These new data suggest that, at least for partial sections, the YYF has been active since the Holocene, implying a potential seismic hazard. However, current quake-protection standards in this region are very low due to the previous view that the YYF fault has not been active since the late Quaternary. If an M ⩾ 7 quake takes place on this fault, it will be a devastating event. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a detailed study on the whole YYF and to reassess its future seismic risk.     

Bearing of plate geometry and rheology on shallow-focus mega-thrust seismicity with special reference to 26 December 2004 Sumatra event

We propose a model pertaining to the generation of 26th December 2004 off Sumatra mega-event in the backdrop of other similar type earthquakes along subduction zones around the world. Reconstructions of Benioff trajectories through the hypocenters of historical earthquakes including six mega-earthquakes indicate (i) confinement of hypocenters right within the descending lithosphere, and (ii) natural coincidence of foci of the mega-events around the zones of plate flexing. These observations are discussed in detail with special emphasis on the Sumatra margin considering the role of rheological anomaly across the cross-section of the descending lithosphere; yield strength envelope and residual stress accumulation through time. The intraplate origin of shallow mega-thrust earthquakes allowed us to advocate the ‘zone of flexing’ along the profiles of the subducting plates as nodal area for stress concentration. We propose here that at elevated confining pressure and temperature, loading of unidirectional cyclic stress on time-average bending stress enhanced the material yield strength (i.e., strain-hardening), and leads the semi-brittle portion of the lithosphere into near-brittle condition through rheological transformation. Under subsequent rise in neutral surface and increase in compressive stress field, non-coaxial deformation triggered shear failure on 26th December 2004 preferably at the rheological interface between strain-hardened near-brittle layer and deformed ductile layer within the sub-oceanic mantle.A two-stage fracture mechanism viz. a slow (～1.1 km/s) bilateral initiation in an essentially strain-hardened near-brittle domain and a follow-up very rapid progression (3.3 km/s) in the brittle, crustal domain was mainly involved in the generation of 2004 off Sumatra mega-event. Estimation shows an amount of 3.38 × 10²² to 4.50 × 10²² N m seismic moment (M_o) and 8.95–9.03 moment magnitude (M_w) for the southern part of the 1300 km extended rupture i.e. between the North Andaman to the north and the Sumatra at its south. The study necessitates the reassessment of other shallow-focus mega-thrust earthquakes along the subduction margins around the globe.     

Koyna,India, an ideal site for near field earthquake observations

The Koyna earthquake of M 6.3 on December 10, 1967 is the largest artificial water reservoir triggered earthquake globally. It claimed ～ 200 human lives and devastated the Koyna township. Before the impoundment of the Shivaji Sagar Lake created by the Koyna Dam, there were no earthquakes reported from the region. Initially a few stations were operated in the region by the CentralWater and Power Research Station (CWPRS). The seismic station network grew with time and currently the National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), Hyderabad is operating 23 broadband seismographs and 6 bore hole seismic stations. Another reservoir, Warna, was created in 1985, which provided a further impetus to Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS). Every year following the monsoon, water levels rise in the two reservoirs and there is an immediate increase in triggered earthquakes in the vicinity of Koyna-Warna reservoirs in the months of August–September. Peak RTS is observed in September and later during December.Another spurt in triggered earthquakes is observed during the draining of the reservoirs in the months of April- May. A comparative study of RTS earthquake sequences and the ones occurring in nearby regions made it possible to identify four common characteristics of RTS sequences that discriminate them from normal earthquake sequences. As the RTS events continue to occur at Koyna in a large number in a limited area of 20 km x 30 km, at shallow depths (mostly 2 to 9 km), the region being accessible for all possible observations and there being no other source of earthquakes within 100 km of Koyna Dam, it was suggested to be an ideal site for near field observations of earthquakes. This suggestion was discussed by the global community at an ICDP sponsored workshop held at Hyderabad and Koyna in 2011. There was an unanimous agreement about the suitability of the site for deep scientific drilling; however, a few additional observations/experiments were suggested. These were carried out in the following three years and another ICDP workshop was held in 2014, which totally supported setting up a borehole laboratory for near field investigations at Koyna. Location of a Pilot Bore-hole was decided on the basis of seismic activity and other logistics. The 3 km deep Pilot Borehole was spudded on December 20, 2016 and completed on June 11, 2017.     

Is earthquake activity along the French Atlantic margin favoured by local rheological contrasts?

The seismological study of recent seismic crises near Oleron Island confirms the coexistence of an extensional deformation and a transtensive regime in the Atlantic margin of France, which is different from the general western European stress field corresponding to a strike-slip regime. We argue that the switch of the principal stress axes σ₁/σ₂ in a NW–SE vertical plane is linked with the existence of crustal heterogeneities. Events of magnitude larger than 5 sometimes occur along the Atlantic margin of France, such as the 7 September 1972 (M_L = 5.2) earthquake near Oleron island and the 30 September 2002 (M_L = 5.7) Hennebont event in Brittany. To test the mechanism of local strain localization, we model the deformation of the hypocentral area of the Hennebont earthquake using a 3D thermo-mechanical finite element code. We conclude that the occurrence of moderate earthquakes located in limited parts of the Hercynian shear zones (as the often reactivated swarms near Oleron) could be due to local reactivation of pre-existing faults. These sporadic seismic ruptures are favoured by stress concentration due to rheological heterogeneities.     

Hierarchy of earthquakes in the Baikal rift system: implications for lithospheric stress

We investigated space-time lithospheric stress patterns of the Baikal rift system according to the hierarchy of earthquakes using mechanisms of 265 K_P ≥ 10 events recorded from 1950 to 1998 and seismic moments of 802 K_P ≥ 11 events from 1968 to 1994. The lithosphere of the region was confirmed to undergo rifting with mostly normal-slip events, while local areas of frequent strike-slip and reverse motions may record stress heterogeneity. The dominance of rifting, although being evident in the stress dynamics, is unstable, which is indicated by increase in strike-slip and reverse motions to as many as normal slip events in the latest 1980s–earliest 1990s. The lithospheric stress patterns inferred from seismic-moment data are generally consistent with those derived from the classical focal mechanism method. The suggested approach of seismic zoning according to earthquake slip geometry may provide a more reliable background for successful mitigation of seismic hazard in the region.     

Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.     

Precursors and fluid flows in the case of the 1996, ML = 5.2 Saint-Paul-de-Fenouillet earthquake (Pyrenees,France): A complete pre-, co- and post-seismic scenario

Earthquake precursors are now regularly described but often detected only after a major or moderate seismic event. Presence and influence of fluids in the seismogenic processes are often observed at the time of earthquake studies. Even today, the understanding of the physical processes involved in the source region is a real challenge for seismic hazard assessment. Here, the aftershock sequence of the M_L = 5.2, 1996 Saint-Paul-de-Fenouillet (Eastern Pyrenees, France) earthquake is first re-examined with P-wave cross-correlations, resulting in extracting three multiplets and in determining new locations. Multiplets and spatio-temporal distribution analysis of the aftershocks allow for quantifying the hydraulic diffusivity D at a maximum value of 5 m²/s and the permeability K at 10^? 15 m² in the upper Pyrenean crust. Second, a model is established in order to explain the hydrogeochemical transient anomalies, which occurred during the 15 day-period preceding the 1996 earthquake. These anomalies consist on a temporal and spatial sequence of gas emissions in the epicentral area and on chloride and lead concentration variations in a bottled mineral water 25 km north to the main shock epicenter. The proposed model processed in a standard elastic half-space, consists of creep on a low-angle crustal normal-fault, generating volumetric strain field changes over a distance of 25 km from the epicentral area. This model is able to constrain not only the mechanisms and the locations of the geochemical anomalies, but also their timing and probable casual links to the triggering of the impending major event. Also, the active extension proposed here is compatible with seismological observations in the Pyrenees. Thus, the possibility of such creep, which can be considered as a slow-slip event, is discussed in the Pyrenean tectonic and geological context. The model is discussed and compared to previous proposed models on precursor processes of earthquakes, especially concerning the preparation zone concept. Finally, a complete seismic scenario over the period beginning 15 days before the quake and ending 5 days after is proposed and discussed.     

Low b-value prior to the Indo-Myanmar subduction zone earthquakes and precursory swarm before the May 1995 M 6.3 earthquake

Some 455 events (m_b ⩾ 4.5) in the Indo-Myanmar subduction zone are compiled using the ISC/EHB/NEIC catalogues (1964–2011) for a systematic study of seismic precursors, b-value and swarm activity. Temporal variation of b-value is studied using the maximum likelihood method beside CUSUM algorithm. The b-values vary from 0.95 to 1.4 for the deeper (depth ⩾60 km) earthquakes, and from 0.85 to 1.3 for the shallower (depth <60 km) earthquakes. A sudden drop in the b-value, from 1.4 to 0.9, prior to the occurrence of larger earthquake(s) at the deeper depth is observed. It is also noted that the CUSUM gradient reversed before the occurrence of larger earthquakes. We further examined the seismicity pattern for the period 1988–1995 within a radius of 150 km around the epicentre (latitude: 24.96°N; longitude: 95.30°E) of a deeper event M 6.3 of May 6, 1995 in this subduction zone. A precursory swarm during January 1989 to July 1992 and quiescence during August 1992 to April 1995 are identified before this large earthquake. These observations are encouraging to monitor seismic precursors for the deeper events in this subduction zone.     

Contamination of seismicity catalogs by quarry blasts: An example from İstanbul and its vicinity,northwestern Turkey

Scientists have proposed two fault systems of different ages in the Sea of Marmara: the Thrace-Eski?ehir Fault Zone of Early Miocene–Early Pliocene age and the North Anatolian Fault Zone of Late Pliocene–Recent age. Different seismicity rates and extensions of these faults onto land near ?stanbul have been suggested. One of the reasons for these differences is the contamination of seismicity catalogs by seismic events from quarries operated in ?stanbul and its vicinity, including Gaziosmanpa?a (Cebeci and Kemerburgaz), Çatalca, Ömerli, Gebze, and Hereke.In this study, we investigated waveforms of 179 seismic events (1.8 < Md < 3.0) from the KOERI, NEMC digital database. We determined differences between earthquakes and quarry blasts based on time- and frequency-domain analyses of their seismograms (amplitude peak ratio, power ratio, and spectral amplitude ratio) and used these differences as discriminants. The results of this study indicate that 15% and 85% of the investigated seismic events are earthquakes and quarry blasts, respectively.     

Seismicity of the Baikal rift system from regional network observations

In the paper we report the state-of-the-art of seismicity study in the Baikal rift system and the general results obtained. At present, the regional earthquake catalog for fifty years of the permanent instrumental observations consists of over 185,000 events. The spatial distribution of the epicenters, which either gather along well-delineated belts or in discrete swarms is considered in detail for different areas of the rift system. At the same time, the hypocenters are poorly constrained making it difficult to identify the fault geometry. Clustered events like aftershock sequences or earthquake swarms are typical patterns in the region; moreover, aftershocks of M ⩾ 4.7 earthquakes make up a quarter of the whole catalog. The maximum magnitude of earthquakes recorded instrumentally is M_LH7.6 for a strike-slip event in the NE part of the Baikal rift system and M_LH6.8 for a normal fault earthquake in the central part of the rift system (Lake Baikal basin). Predominant movement type is normal faulting on NE striking faults with a left lateral strike-slip component on W–E planes. In conclusion, some shortcomings of the seismic network and data processing are pointed out.     

Effects of borehole casing on TEM response

The effect the metal casing of a vertical borehole may exert on transient electromagnetic (TEM) responses has been studied in a field experiment. Eddy currents in the casing affect transients only slightly at early times, but the casing effect predominates at late times. Therefore, early-time TEM response measured near a borehole can provide information on shallow subsurface. The late-time TEM signals induced by the eddy currents in the casing show exponential behavior b⋅ exp(–t/τ). The time constant τ refers to the rate of eddy current decay in the casing; the amplitude b is M₁₂⋅ M₂₃⋅ L^–1⋅ τ^–1, where L is the casing self-inductance, and M₁₂ and M₂₃ are the mutual inductances between the transmitter loop and the borehole and between the borehole and the receiver, respectively. Both M₁₂ and M₂₃ are controllable, while M₂₃ is especially important for survey applications: by reducing it, one can reduce the casing effect on the TEM data.© 2014, V.S. Sobolev IGM, Siberian Branch of the RAS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.     

Seismicity and velocity structures along the south-Alpine thrust front of the Venetian Alps (NE-Italy)

In this paper we show the seismicity and velocity structure of a segment of the Alpine retro-belt front along the continental collision margin of the Venetian Alps (NE Italy). Our goal is to gain insight on the buried structures and deep fault geometry in a “silent” area, i.e., an area with poor instrumental seismicity but high potential for future earthquakes, as indicated by historical earthquakes (1695 Me = 6.7 Asolo and 1936 Ms = 5.8 Bosco del Cansiglio). Local earthquakes recorded by a dense temporary seismic network are used to compute 3-D Vp and Vp/Vs tomographic images, yielding well resolved images of the upper crust underneath the south-Alpine front. We show the presence of two main distinct high Vp S-verging thrust units, the innermost coincides with the piedmont hill and the outermost is buried under a thick pile of sediments in the Po plain.Background seismicity and Vp/Vs anomalies, interpreted as cracked fluid-filled volumes, suggest that the NE portion of the outermost blind thrust and its oblique/lateral ramps may be a zone of high fluid pressure prone to future earthquakes.Three-dimensional focal mechanisms show compressive and transpressive solutions, in agreement with the tectonic setting, stress field maps and geodetic observations. The bulk of the microseismicity is clustered in two different areas, both in correspondence of inherited lateral ramps of the thrust system. Tomographic images highlight the influence of the paleogeographic setting in the tectonic style and seismic activity of the region.     

Metamorphic P–T path of mafic granulites from Eastern Hebei: Implications for the Neoarchean tectonics of the Eastern Block,North China Craton

This study documents the metamorphic evolution of mafic granulites from the Eastern Hebei Complex in the Eastern Block of the North China Craton. Mafic granulites from Eastern Hebei occur as boudins or enclaves within Neoarchean high-grade TTG gneisses. Petrographic observations reveal three characteristic metamorphic mineral assemblages in the mafic granulites: the pre-peak hornblende + plagioclase + ilmenite + quartz + sphene assemblage (M₁) existing as mineral inclusions within coarse-grained peak assemblage (M₂) represented by garnet + clinopyroxene + orthopyroxene + plagioclase + hornblende + ilmenite + quartz, and post-peak assemblage (M₃) marked by garnet + quartz ± ilmenite symplectites surrounding the peak pyroxene and plagioclase. Based on pseudosection modeling calculated in the NCFMASHTO model system using the program THERMOCALC, P–T conditions of the pre-peak (M₁), peak (M₂) and post-peak (M₃) assemblages are constrained at 600–715 °C/6.0 kbar or below, 860–900 °C/9.6–10.3 kbar, and 790–810 °C/9.6–10.4 kbar, respectively. These P–T estimates, combined with their mineral compositions and reaction relations, define an anticlockwise P–T path incorporating isobaric cooling subsequent to the peak medium-pressure granulite-facies metamorphism for the mafic granulites from Eastern Hebei. Such an anticlockwise P–T path suggests that the end-Neoarchean metamorphism of the Eastern Hebei Complex correlated closely with underplating and intrusion of voluminous mantle-derived magmas. In conjunction with other geological considerations, a mantle-plume model is favored to interpret the Neoarchean tectonothermal evolution of the Eastern Hebei Complex and other metamorphic complexes in the Eastern Block. The prograde amphibolite-facies metamorphism (M₁) was initiated due to the upwelling of the relatively cooler mantle plume head, followed by the peak medium-pressure granulite-facies metamorphism (M₂) as triggered by the uprising hotter plume “tail”, and finally when plume activity ceased, the heated metamorphic crust experienced nearly isobaric cooling (M₃).     

Influence of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) on the occurrence probability of future earthquakes on neighboring faults

The Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault are two major neighboring faults of the Longmen–Shan fault zone where the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M_w 7.9) occurred. To study the influence of the Wenchuan event on these two active faults, we calculate changes of Coulomb stress on the Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault caused by the Wenchuan mainshock. Our results indicate that the Coulomb stress in the northern section (Zone A) of the Longquan–Shan fault is increased by 0.07–0.10 bars, that in the middle section (Zone B) by 0.04–0.11 bars, and that in the southern section (Zone C) shows almost no change. For the Huya fault, the Coulomb stress is decreased by 0.01–0.03 bars in the northern section (Zone A), 0.10–0.35 bars in the middle section (Zone B), and nearly 0.5 bars in the southern section (Zone C). The epicenter distribution of small earthquakes (M_L ⩾ 1.5) on the Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault after the Wenchuan earthquake is consistent with the distribution of the Coulomb stress change. This implies that the Wenchuan earthquake may have triggered small events on the Longquan–Shan fault, but inhibited those on the Huya fault. We then use the rate/state friction law to calculate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes in the study region for the next decade. They include the distribution of b-values, magnitude of completeness (M_c), the background seismicity rate, a value of Aσ_n and the duration for the transient effect (t_a) in the study region. We also estimate the earthquake occurrence probabilities on the neighboring faults after the Wenchuan earthquake. Our results show that, the occurrence probability of future earthquakes in the Longquan–Shan has a slight increase, being 7% for M ⩾ 5.0 shocks during the next decade, but the earthquake probability in the Huya region is reduced obviously, being 5–20%, 7–26% and 3–9% for M ⩾ 5.0 shocks during the next decade in sections A, B and C of the Huya fault, respectively.