全球气候变化对我国自然资源的影响

阐述全球气候变化的现状和趋势，探讨了气候变化对我国水、森林和土地等自然资源的影响，以期为合理开发利用自然资源提供理论依据。     

全球气候变化对中国森林生态系统的影响

人类活动所引起的温室效应及由此造成的全球气候变化和对全球生态环境的影响正引起人们越来越多的重视.作为全球陆地生态系统一个重要组分,中国的森林生态系统对未来全球气候变化的响应更是人们关注的重点.作者系统地总结了全球气候变化对中国森林生态系统分布、生态系统生产力、森林树种以及森林土壤的影响,指出了现阶段该领域研究中存在的一些问题,并对今后需要加强的一些核心问题与研究重点作了展望.     

全球闪电活动与气候变化

全球闪电活动与气候变化关系的研究正受到越来越多的重视,该文从卫星上观测到的全球闪电活动、闪电活动和全球电路对温度的响应,闪电和对流层上部水汽的联系,闪电和N0,等几方面进行了阐述,指出了闪电活动在气候变化研究中的重要性。同时,文中还对影响闪电活动和起电过程的热力动力作用以及气溶胶的作用等进行了分析。     

美国作物土地利用与自然资源和气候变化的关系

作物生产不仅取决于单位面积产量，而且也依赖收获面积。关于作物单位面积产量对气候变化的反应已有广泛的研究，而作物土地利用对设想的气候变化的敏感性则缺乏直接的考查。为了估算作物面积指数－玉米，大豆，小麦和高粱生产的土地利用百分经，提出作物土地利用回归模式。     

西北干旱环境对全球气候变化可能影响的数值模拟

西北干旱区是中亚干旱区的主要组成部分,是研究地理科学、生命科学及环境科学的热点地区.本文利用CCM3模式,做了DE(假定西北干旱环境进一步发展)、FE(假定西北干旱环境改善)和CTL共3个数值试验,通过分析大气层顶辐射平衡、地表能量平衡、气温变化、降水变化以及植被生理过程的CO2收支变化等,初步探讨了西北干旱气候环境对全球气候变化的可能影响.结果表明,西北干旱气候环境的进一步发展或改善,将对全球的能量平衡过程及其空间分布状态产生影响,从而可能会影响全球和区域的气候变化及其分布状态.这在全球气温和降水的区域变化上表现比较明显.西北干旱区陆面特征的变化也可以通过生物-地球化学反馈过程影响全球的气候变化,而且这种影响可能是长期的,其意义深远.通过分析认为,西北干旱气候环境的形成和演变是全球气候变化的重要组成部分,因此西北干旱区的研究必须纳入全球气候环境研究之中,才能更全面的认识干旱区的形成、演变及其对全球气候变化的贡献和响应.     

2005年全球气候变化回顾

 编者按：文章内容来源于McCarthy [1]和Hansen et al.[2]发表在网站上的两份报告（其相关内容分别发表在《独立报》和《华盛顿邮报》上）,指出2005年全球气候的主要特征表现为温度、海冰和热带风暴3个方面的明显异常。2005年是有记录以来第2个最暖的年份,几乎超过了1998年。另外,北冰洋等地冰雪的融化与热带风暴的异常都创了历史记录。     

全球气候变化预估最新研究进展

总结了近5 a来对全球气候变化预估的研究进展,着重分析和介绍近几年全球气候变化预估研究的特点,热点和难点。     

火山遥感及其在全球气候变化中的作用

有关火山遥感的文献大多牵涉到一些基本的形态学特性，这对于火山的喷发预警和探察地热柱和岩浆流是适合的，本文的目的则是要强调与火山在全球气候变化中的作用相关的一些物理过程，特别在地球放气中必须要估计火山的实际时变作用，我们可以从过去得到一些相关信息以便考虑通过现在的卫星应监测哪些项目。     

Global Climate Change and Tropical Forest Genetic Resources

Global climate change may have a serious impact on genetic resources in tropical forest trees. Genetic diversity plays a critical role in the survival of populations in rapidly changing environments. Furthermore, most tropical plant species are known to have unique ecological niches, and therefore changes in climate may directly affect the distribution of biomes, ecosystems, and constituent species. Climate change may also indirectly affect plant genetic resources through effects on phenology, breeding systems, and plant-pollinator and plant seed disperser interactions, and may reduce genetic diversity and reproductive output. As a consequence, population densities may be reduced leading to reduction in genetic diversity through genetic drift and inbreeding. Tropical forest plants may respond to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, adaptive evolution, migration to suitable site, or extinction. However, the potential to respond is limited by a rapid pace of change and the non-availability of alternate habitats due to past and present trends of deforestation. Thus climate change may result in extinction of many populations and species. Our ability to estimate the precise response of tropical forest ecosystems to climate change is limited by lack of long-term data on parameters that might be affected by climate change. Collection of correlative data from long-term monitoring of climate as well as population and community responses at selected sites offer the most cost-effective way to understand the effects of climate change on tropical tree populations. However, mitigation strategies need to be implemented immediately. Because many effects of climate change may be similar to the effects of habitat alteration and fragmentation, protected areas and buffer zones should be enlarged, with an emphasis on connectivity among conserved landscapes. Taxa that are likely to become extinct should be identified and protected through ex situ conservation programs.     

全球气候变化对水文与水资源的影响

介绍了国内外全球气候变化对水文与水资源影响研究的现状与进展,简述了研究气候变化对水文与水资源影响的方法,指出了研究中存在的问题,分析了未来研究的发展趋势。     

Quantifying the Impact of Global Climate Change on Potential Natural Vegetation

Impacts of climate change on vegetation are often summarized in biome maps, representing the potential natural vegetation class for each cell of a grid under current and changed climate. The amount of change between two biome maps is usually measured by the fraction of cells that change class, or by the kappa statistic. Neither measure takes account of varying structural and floristic dissimilarity among biomes. An attribute-based measure of dissimilarity (V) between vegetation classes is therefore introduced. V is based on (a) the relative importance of different plant life forms (e.g. tree, grass) in each class, and (b) a series of attributes (e.g. evergreen-deciduous, tropical-nontropical) of each life form with a weight for each attribute. V is implemented here for the most used biome model, BIOME 1 (Prentice, I. C. et al., 1992). Multidimensional scaling of pairwise V values verifies that the suggested importance values and attribute weights lead to a reasonable pattern of dissimilarities among biomes. Dissimilarity between two maps (V) is obtained by area-weighted averaging of V over the model grid. Using V, present global biome distribution from climatology is compared with anomaly-based scenarios for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2 × CO2), and for extreme glacial and interglacial conditions. All scenarios are obtained from equilibrium simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. The 2 × CO2 simulations are the widely used OSU and GFDL runs from the 1980's, representing models with low and high climate sensitivity, respectively. The palaeoclimate simulations were made with CCM1, with sensitivity similar to GFDL. V values for the comparisons of 2 × CO2 with present climate are similar to values for the comparisons of the last interglacial and mid-Holocene with present climate. However, the two simulated 2 × CO2 cases are much more like each other than they are to the simulated interglacial cases. The largest V values were between the last glacial maximum and all other cases, including the present. These examples illustrate the potential of V in comparing the impacts of different climate change scenarios, and the possibility of calibrating climate change impacts against a palaeoclimatic benchmark.     

自然驱动是全球气候变化的重要因素

2007年IPCC公布的第四次评估报告指出,过去50 a观测到的地球平均温度升高很可能(90%以上)是由人类活动引起的,其中主要是人类活动引起的温室气体排放的增加.高精度的卫星数据分析结果显示,30 a来全球气温呈振荡变化,除受厄尔尼诺、火山活动等重大自然现象影响外,并未出现异常增温现象,仍处在正常波动范围内;加勒比海...     

华北地区气候变化及其对水资源的影响

根据华北地区近50年的气候、水资源、旱涝灾害面积等资料，对该地区的气候特点及变化趋势、水资源的变化规律与气候变化的相互关系、极端气候事件对水资源的影响及气候变化对农业旱涝的影响进行了分析，并在气候模式预测结果的基础上，简要分析了华北地区未来气候变化对水资源的可能影响，提出了相应的对策建议，从而为实现水资源可持续利用提供科学依据。     

与华北干旱相关联的全球尺度气候变化现象

利用ERA-40再分析资料集的风、温度、水汽等再分析资料,分析了华北地区干旱以及北非萨赫勒地区干旱化的气候特征及它们之间的关联,指出在亚非季风区上空存在一个年代际的季风环流异常遥相关波列,正是由于此波列的作用,使得我国华北地区从1965年以后所发生的干旱与北非萨赫勒地区干旱化存在着明显的相关联.并且分析了这两地区的干旱与之相关联的全球气候变化背景,指出由于1965年之后北、南半球气温变化差异的减少导致了亚非季风系统发生了年代际减弱和南撤,从而使得华北和北非萨赫勒地区发生了持续干旱现象.       

华南地区城市化对区域气候变化的影响

按照人口数将华南地区站点分为大城市站、一般城市站、郊区站,并利用华南地区1960~2011年的站点观测资料分别计算了3类站点年平均、季节平均的气温、高温日数、降水、相对湿度、风速、日照时数距平序列的变化,分析了城市化对华南地区区域气候的影响。结果表明:相较于背景场,大城市的平均气温有更明显的上升趋势;高温日数在3类站点中均有增加的趋势,在城市化的影响下,大城市的高温日数有明显的增加;平均气温日较差在整个华南地区均有下降趋势,特别是在大城市中。在3类站点中,降雨总量均有减少的趋势,且降雨更多的以中雨及以上的形式表现。该地区的相对湿度、风速、日照时数均呈现减少趋势,在城市化影响下,大城市的相对湿度、风速、日照时数均有明显的减少。华南地区处于我国最大的城市群之一——珠江三角洲地区,同时处于气候系统复杂的热带季风区,因此有必要研究城市化对该地区多个气象变量的可能影响。     

全球及中国区域气候变化预估研究主要进展简述

自IPCC评估报告发表以来,气候模式对未来气候变化的预估成为人们重视的问题。因此,本文回顾了IPCC前4次报告对全球未来气候变化预估的主要结论,并对全球及区域气候模式对中国地区的模拟和预估结果进行了分类总结,得出区域气候模式由于分辨率更高、对特殊地形的模拟能力更强,因此比全球气候模式的模拟和预估结果更准确;同时讨论了目前存在的问题及今后研究的方向。     

Climate Change and Water Resources

Current perspectives on global climate change based on recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are presented. Impacts of a greenhouse warming that are likely to affect water planning and evaluation include changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, sea level rise, land use and population shifts following from these effects, and changes in water demands. Irrigation water demands are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, temperature, and carbon dioxide levels. Despite recent advances in climate change science, great uncertainty remains as to how and when climate will change and how these changes will affect the supply and demand for water at the river basin and watershed levels, which are of most interest to planners. To place the climate-induced uncertainties in perspective, the influence on the supply and demand for water of non-climate factors such as population, technology, economic conditions, social and political factors, and the values society places on alternative water uses are considered.