Rock fall hazard control along a section of railway based on quantified risk

Rock falls represent a large percentage of landslide-related hazards reported by Canadian railways in mountainous terrain. A 54.7?km-long section of railway through the Canadian Cordillera is examined that experiences, on average, 18 rock falls each year. An approach for rock fall hazard management is developed based on quantified risk. The approach focuses on defining railway operation procedures (freight train operations and track maintenance) that comply with quantified risks. Weather-based criteria that define periods when rock falls are more likely to occur along the study area are examined. These criteria are used herein to reduce exposure to rock falls and reduce their consequences. Several freight train operation strategies are proposed that comply with a tolerable level of risk adopted in this study for illustrative purposes. The approach provides a simple, flexible and practical strategy for railway operations that can be regularly adopted by the operators, and that is based on a more comprehensive assessment of quantified risk.     

Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal

Natural Hazards - Seismic risk in the form of impending disaster has been seen from past records that moderate-to-large earthquakes have caused the loss of life and property in all parts of Nepal....     

Rock fall hazard along the railway corridor to Jerusalem,Israel, in the Soreq and Refaim valleys

We evaluate rock fall hazard along the railway corridor to Jerusalem, Israel, in the Soreq and Refaim valleys. For the purpose, we use a combination of historical information on past rock fall events, field surveys aided by the interpretation of aerial photographs, and numerical rock fall modeling. Historical information indicates that on July 11, 1927 an m _L 6.2 Dead-Sea transform earthquake caused rock falls in the studied area. The seismically induced rock falls damaged the railway tracks. Field observations revealed that the source area for the 1927 failures was located in the Aminadav formation, at the contact with the Moza formation. At the stratigraphic contact, rock blocks 10⁰–10¹ m³ in size are formed as a result of tensile stresses and associated fracturing in the dolomite of the Aminadav formation, combined with continuous creep of the blocks on the marl of the underlying Moza formation. We use topographical, geological, and geomorphological information to calibrate a three-dimensional numerical simulation of rock falls in the studied area. We use the results of the numerical modeling, and additional independent information, to assess rock fall hazard and the associated risk in the Soreq and Refaim valleys. Results indicate that in the studied area, rock fall risk to the railway line to Jerusalem is due primarily to Dead-Sea transform earthquakes, with m _L  > 6. We identify nine sections of the railway line where rock fall risk exists, for a total length of 2.5 km. We further note that seismically induced rock falls can produce damage to the road network in the studied area, make it difficult or impossible for earthquake casualties to reach hospitals in Jerusalem. We conclude offering recommendations on how to mitigate the risk posed by earthquake-induced rock falls in the studied area.     

DEM-based deterministic landslide hazard analysis in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal

In Nepal, people live in widely spread settlements in the fragile Himalayan terrains, and suffer more from landslides than from any other type of natural disaster. The small-scale rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal are generally shallow (about 0.5 to 2.5 m) and are triggered by changes in the physical property of soil layers during rainfall. The relation between landslides and slope hydrology has received little attention in Himalayan landslide research. Thus, this paper deals with the probability of slope failure during extreme rainfall events by considering a digital elevation model (DEM)-based hydrological model for soil saturation depth and an infinite slope stability model. Deterministic distributed analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) was carried out to calculate the probability of slope failure. A simple method of error propagation was used to calculate the variance of the safety factors and the probability of failure. When normally distributed failure probability values were checked against existing landslides, it was found that more than 50% of the pixels of existing landslides coincided with a high calculated probability of failure. Although the deterministic distributed analysis has certain drawbacks, as described by previous researchers, this study concluded that the calculated failure probability can be utilised to predict the probability of slope failure in Himalayan terrain during extreme rainfall events.     

Seismic hazard and probability assessment of Kashmir valley,northwest Himalaya,India

Seismic hazard analysis of the northwest Himalayan belt was carried out by using extreme value theory (EVT). The rate of seismicity (a value) and recurrence intervals with the given earthquake magnitude (b value) was calculated from the observed data using Gutenberg–Richter Law. The statistical evaluation of 12,125 events from 1902 to 2017 shows the increasing trend in their inter-arrival times. The frequency–magnitude relation exhibits a linear downslope trend with negative slope of 0.8277 and positive intercept of 4.6977. The empirical results showed that the annual risk probability of high magnitude earthquake M?≥?7.7 in 50 years is 88% with recurrence period of 47 years, probability of M?≤?7.5 in 50 years is 97% with recurrence period of 27 years, and probability of M?≤?6.5 in 50 years is 100% with recurrence period of 4 years. Kashmir valley, located in the NW Himalaya, encompasses a peculiar tectonic and structural setup. The patterns of the present and historical seismicity records of the valley suggest a long-term strain accumulation along NNW and SSE extensions with the decline in the seismic gap, posing a potential threat of earthquakes in the future. The Kashmir valley is characterized by the typical lithological, tectono-geomorphic, geotechnical, hydrogeological and socioeconomic settings that augment the earthquake vulnerability associated with the seismicity of the region. The cumulative impact of the various influencing parameters therefore exacerbates the seismic hazard risk of the valley to future earthquake events.     

Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of mountainous terrains - a case study from Kumaun Himalaya, India

Landslides are studied systematically in order to evaluate the nature of hazard and the damages to the human life, land, roads, buildings and other properties. This can be expressed in terms of risk, which is a function of hazard probability and damage potential. A risk map will indicate the priorities for landslide hazard management. A new approach to risk assessment mapping using a risk assessment matrix (RAM) is presented.     

Empirical assessment of rockfall and debris flow risk along the Karakoram Highway,Pakistan

Natural Hazards - The Karakoram Highway links north Pakistan with southwest China. It passes through unique geomorphological, geological and tectonic setting. This study focused 200-km-long section...     

An evaluation of the inverted metamorphic gradient at Langtang National Park, Central Nepal Himalaya

Abstract The crystalline core of the Himalayan orogen in the Langtang area of Nepal, located between the Annapurna-Manaslu region and the Everest region, contains middle to upper amphibolite grade pelitic gneisses and schists. These rocks are intimately associated with the Main Central Thrust (MCT), one of the major compressional structures in the northern Indian plate, which forms a 3.7-km-wide zone containing rocks of both footwall and hangingwall affinity. An inverted metamorphic gradient is noticeable from upper footwall through hangingwall rocks, where metamorphic conditions increase from garnet grade near the MCT zone to sillimanite + K-feldspar grade in the upper hangingwall. Petrographic data distinguish two metamorphic episodes that have affected the area: a high-pressure, moderate-temperature episode (M1) and a moderate-pressure, high-temperature episode (M2). Comparison with appropriate reaction boundaries suggests that conditions for M1 in the hangingwall were approximately 900–1200 MPa and 425–525°C. Thermobarometric results for 24 samples from the footwall, MCT zone and hangingwall reflect P-T conditions during the M2 phase of 400–1200 MPa and 490–660° C. The decrease in estimated palaeopressures from footwall to hangingwall approximate a lithostatic gradient of 27 MPa km^-1, with slight fluctuations in the MCT zone reflecting structural discontinuities. In contrast to the palaeopressures, palaeotemperatures are indistinguishable across the entire area sampled. Although field evidence suggests the presence of the inverted palaeothermal gradient well known in the Himalaya, quantitative thermobarometry indicates that temperatures of final equilibration were all within error of each other across 17 km of section. At Langtang, change in pressure is responsible for the presence of the sequence of index minerals through the section. I interpret these data to reflect diachronous attainment of equilibrium temperature conditions in a lithostatic palaeopressure profile after ductile faulting of the sequence.     

Area-scale landslide hazard and risk assessment

The paper deals with a methodology for quantitative landslide hazard and risk assessments over wide-scale areas. The approach was designed to fulfil the following requirements: (1) rapid investigation of large study areas; (2) use of elementary information, in order to satisfy the first requirement and to ensure validation, repetition and real time updating of the assessments every time new data are available; (3) computation of the landslide frequency of occurrence, in order to compare objectively different hazard conditions and to minimize references to qualitative hazard attributes such as activity states. The idea of multi-temporal analysis set forth by Cardinali et al. (Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 2:57–72, 2002), has been stressed here to compute average recurrence time for individual landslides and to forecast their behaviour within reference time periods. The method is based on the observation of the landslide activity through aerial-photo surveys carried out in several time steps. The output is given by a landslide hazard map showing the mean return period of landslides reactivation. Assessing the hazard in a quantitative way allows for estimating quantitatively the risk as well; thus, the probability of the exposed elements (such as people and real estates) to suffer damages due to the occurrence of landslides can be calculated. The methodology here presented is illustrated with reference to a sample area in Central Italy (Umbria region), for which both the landslide hazard and risk for the human life are analysed and computed. Results show the powerful quantitative approach for assessing the exposure of human activities to the landslide threat for a best choice of the countermeasures needed to mitigate the risk.An erratum to this article can be found at     

滑坡易发性危险性风险评价例析

从易发性、危险性、风险的概念入手,依据国际上流行和通用的滑坡风险评价与管理理论,分析了易发性评价的内容,包括易发性评价到危险性评价需要增加的评价要素,以及从危险性评价到风险评价需要增加的评价要素,阐明了这三种评价之间的联系和区别。并通过延安宝塔区的滑坡易发性、危险性和风险的评价与区划具体说明三者的做法和结果。     

Flood hazard and risk assessment in Russia

Flood risk assessment is usually performed by application of sophisticated mathematical models of river flow. However, there are cases when it is required to assess the risk in the lack of data conditions or a limited time available. In such cases, it is advisable to use some simplifications, which provide reliable results faster. This study proposes a hybrid approach to the flood risk assessment combining quantitative and qualitative indicators. The article describes various methods to assess the flood risk, such as likelihood of flooding, magnitude of the flood, average annual damage, maximum damage and expectation of damage. The authors examined special cases of calculation of the mathematical expectation of harm and zoning in the corresponding indicators. This approach is designed for the conditions of the Russian Federation, but it can be adapted for other regions. It is based on the use of two types of risk maps. The first type of maps is intended to define the mathematical expectation of damage zones for reference building with possibility of risk calculation for other buildings using multiple factors. The second type of maps is designed for the purposes of land use regulation for floodplains based on a priori statistical estimates of flood risk.     

Flood hazard and risk assessment in Russia

The occurrence of rockfall incidents on the transportation network may cause injuries, and even casualties, as well as severe damage to infrastructure such as dwellings, railways, road corridors, etc. Passive protective measures (i.e., rockfall barriers, wire nets, etc.) are mainly deployed by operators of ground transport networks to minimize the impact of detrimental effects on these networks. In conjunction with these passive measures, active rockfall monitoring should ideally include the magnitude of each rockfall, its initial and final position, and the triggering mechanism that might have caused its detachment from the slope. In this work, the operational principle of a low-cost rockfall monitoring and alerting system is being presented. The system integrates measurements from a multi-channel seismograph and commercial cameras as the primary equipment for event detection. A series of algorithms analyze these measurements independently in order to reduce alarms originated by surrounding noise and sources other than rockfall events. The detection methodology employs two different sets of algorithms: Time–frequency analyses of the rockfall event’s seismic signature are performed using moving window pattern recognition algorithms, whereas image processing techniques are utilized to deliver object detection and localization. Training and validation of the proposed approach was performed through field tests that involved manually induced rockfall events and recording of sources (i.e., passing car, walking people) that may cause a false alarm. These validation tests revealed that the seismic monitoring algorithms produce a 4.17 % false alarm rate with an accuracy of 93 %. Finally, the results of a 34-day operational monitoring period are presented and the ability of the imaging system to identify and exclude false alarms is discussed. The entire processing cycle is 10–15 s. Thus, it can be considered as a near real-time system for early warning of rockfall events.     

区域滑坡灾害预测预警与风险评价

区域滑坡灾害预测预警是滑坡灾害研究领域的难点和热点。过去10多年来在这方面的研究主要集中在区域降雨与地质环境的结合方面。文章总结了目前国内外滑坡灾害预测预报、预警和风险管理研究现状,认为把滑坡灾害预警预报与风险管理相结合是减灾防灾的需要,也是今后该领域研究的发展趋势。文章从区域滑坡灾害空间预测、时间预警预报的角度提出了滑坡灾害预测预报的分类和理论基础,并在此基础上,利用MapGIS软件平台进行二次开发,建立了基于WebGIS的滑坡灾害信息管理系统和实时预警发布系统。以2004年"云娜"台风期间浙江省永嘉县滑坡灾害预警预报为例,进行了滑坡危险性预测、人口易损性预测、经济易损性预测到风险预测的实例研究。     

Fuzzy-based method for landslide hazard assessment in active seismic zone of Himalaya

Landslides in Himalaya cause widespread damage in terms of property and human lives. It the present study, an attempt is made to derive information on causative parameters and preparation of landslide-susceptible map using fuzzy data integration in one of the seismically active region of Garhwal Himalaya that was recently devastated by a huge landslide. High-resolution remotely sensed data products acquired from Indian Remote Sensing Satellite before and after the landslide event were processed to improve interpretability and derivation of causative parameters. Spatial data sets such as lithology, rock weathering, geomorphology, lineaments, drainage, land use, anthropogenic factor, soil type and depth, slope gradient, and slope aspect were integrated using fuzzy gamma operator. The final map was reclassified in to five classes such as highly to lowly susceptible classes based on cumulative cutoff. The result shows around 72% of known landslide areas including the large Uttarkashi landslide in the high and very high susceptibility classes comprising of only 37% of the total area. The precipitation data from ground- and satellite-based observations were compared; the precipitation threshold and the role of seismic activity were analyzed for initiation of landslide.     

Thermobarometric constraints on the thermal history of the Main Central Thrust Zone and Tibetan Slab, eastern Nepal Himalaya

ABSTRACT The Main Central Thrust (MCT) south of Mt Everest in eastern Nepal is a 3 to 5km thick shear zone separating chlorite-bearing schist in the lower plate from sillimanite-bearing migmatitic gneiss in the overlying Tibetan Slab. The metamorphic grade increases through the MCT zone toward structurally higher levels. Previous workers have suggested that either post- or synmetamorphic thrust movement has caused this inversion of metamorphic isograds. In an effort to quantify the increase in grade and to constrain proposed structural relations between metamorphism and slip on the fault, four well-calibrated thermobarometers were applied to pelitic samples collected along two cross-strike transects through the MCT zone and Tibetan Slab. Results show an increase in apparent temperature up-section in the MCT zone from 778 K to 990 K and a decrease in temperature to ∼850 K in the lower Tibetan Slab, which is consistent with synmetamorphic thrust movement. A trend in calculated pressures across this section is less well-defined but, on average, decreases up-section with a gradient of ∼28MPa/km, resembling a lithostatic gradient. Pressure-temperature paths for zoned garnets from samples within the MCT zone, modelled using the Gibbs' Method, show a significant decrease in temperature and a slight decrease in pressure from core to rim, which might be expected for upper plate rocks during synmetamorphic thrust movement. Samples from the uppermost Tibetan Slab yield higher temperatures and pressures than those from the lower Tibetan Slab, which may be evidence for later‘resetting’ of thermobarometers by intrusion of the large amounts of leucogranite at that structural level.     

Lahar hazard micro-zonation and risk assessment in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia

Yogyakarta urban area (500,000 inhab.) is located in Central Java on the fluvio-volcanic plain beside Merapi volcano, one of the most active of the world. Since the last eruption of Merapi in November 1994, the Code river, which goes across this city, is particularly threatened by lahars (volcanic debris flows). Until now, no accurate hazard map exists and no risk assessment has been done. Therefore, we drew a detailed hazard map (1/2,000 scale), based on morphometric surveys of the Code channel and on four scenarios of discharge. An additional risk assessment revealed that about 13,000 people live at risk along this river, and that the approximate value of likely loss is US $ 52 millions. However, the risk level varies between the urban suburbs. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Application of frequency ratio,statistical index,and weights-of-evidence models and their comparison in landslide susceptibility mapping in Central Nepal Himalaya

The Mugling–Narayanghat road section falls within the Lesser Himalaya and Siwalik zones of Central Nepal Himalaya and is highly deformed by the presence of numerous faults and folds. Over the years, this road section and its surrounding area have experienced repeated landslide activities. For that reason, landslide susceptibility zonation is essential for roadside slope disaster management and for planning further development activities. The main goal of this study was to investigate the application of the frequency ratio (FR), statistical index (SI), and weights-of-evidence (WoE) approaches for landslide susceptibility mapping of this road section and its surrounding area. For this purpose, the input layers of the landslide conditioning factors were prepared in the first stage. A landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier reports, aerial photographs interpretation, and multiple field surveys. A total of 438 landslide locations were detected. Out these, 295 (67 %) landslides were randomly selected as training data for the modeling using FR, SI, and WoE models and the remaining 143 (33 %) were used for the validation purposes. The landslide conditioning factors considered for the study area are slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, altitude, stream power index, topographic wetness index, lithology, land use, distance from faults, distance from rivers, and distance from highway. The results were validated using area under the curve (AUC) analysis. From the analysis, it is seen that the FR model with a success rate of 76.8 % and predictive accuracy of 75.4 % performs better than WoE (success rate, 75.6 %; predictive accuracy, 74.9 %) and SI (success rate, 75.5 %; predictive accuracy, 74.6 %) models. Overall, all the models showed almost similar results. The resultant susceptibility maps can be useful for general land use planning.