Biophysical impacts of climate change on some terrestrial ecosystems in Estonia

Climate warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to have a significant impact on the natural environment and human activity in high latitudes. Because of its geography, wide coastal areas, water resources, forests, and wetlands, the environment of Estonia is sensitive to climate change and sea level rise. Climate change scenarios for Estonia were generated using a Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) and a regional climate change database, Scenario Generator (SCENGEN). Three alternative emission scenarios were combined with data from 14 general circulation model experiments. The assessment results of forest resources using RipFor, a forest-soil-atmosphere model, show that climate warming would enhance forest growth in Estonia resulting in increased productivity (2–9%) of harvestable timber on highly productive sites. Nutrient mobility increases greatly and in highly permeable soils with stable vegetation, increased mobility may result in nutrient losses through leaching. The assessment results of water resources using the simple water balance model, WatBal, show that the runoff regime of Estonian rivers would equilibrate and the groundwater table would rise. Climate warming would not cause any particular problems with water supply but the groundwater quality may suffer from increased leaching. Due to milder winters and increased storminess, the destruction of coastal areas, inundation of wetlands and disappearance of rare plant communities in coastal areas would be the most damaging results of climate change. Most sandy beaches high in recreational value would disappear. However, isostatic uplift and settlements inland from the present coastline reduce the risk of socio-economic decline. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of land use/cover change in fragile karst areas of southwest China since the early 1970s: a case study on the Maotiaohe watershed

Land use/cover change and its driving forces has been one of the most important fields in global environmental change research since the 1990s. Karst areas are distributed extensively on the Earth’s surface and are usually characterized by a fragile eco-environment. In southwest China, karst landforms are fully developed and their eco-environment is highly fragile. Over the past decades, irrational land use practice has caused a series of alarming eco-environmental issues including forest clearing, soil erosion, and karst rocky desertification. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study land use/cover change in this area and its driving forces in order to re-build the damaged eco-environment and achieve sustainable land use. In this paper, the authors conduct a case study on land use/cover change and its natural and human driving forces since the early 1970s in southwest China’s Maotiaohe watershed. The results indicate that the land use/cover pattern in the study area has undergone a very complex change, which is a result of combined action of both natural and anthropological factors. In the 1970s and 1980s, climate change and fast population increase played dominating roles in the change of arable land, shrub land, grassland, and rocky desertification land. Since the early 1990s, economic development has gradually taken the place of population change to become the overwhelming human factor to go along with climate change in driving the land use/cover change, particularly the change in arable land, construction land, and rocky desertification land.     

Comparison of net primary productivity in karst and non-karst areas: a case study in Guizhou Province,China

Green plants play an important role in energy flows and material cycles. The net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of vegetation to convert solar energy into photosynthate (fixed carbon). Understanding the factors that contribute to variations in NPP is of key importance for improving the rock-desertification environment in karst areas. In this paper, the NPP model (Light Use Efficiency model) is modified on the basis of remote sensing data [moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS)], climate data and observed information. Then the model is employed to estimate the spatial–temporal variations of NPP in the Guizhou Province, China. Finally, the NPP differences between karst area and non-karst area, and the relationships between NPP and climate factors are analyzed. The results show that the NPP estimated using MODIS data are reasonable. The mean NPP of territorial vegetation is 421.46 gC m⁻² year⁻¹; the NPP in the non-karst area is 13.3% higher than that in the karst area; the correlation degree between NPP and precipitation is better in southeastern and western districts.     

Impacts of land use and land cover changes upon organic productivity values in Karst ecosystems: a case study of Northwest Guangxi, China

Karst areas are one of the most fragile regions in the world. The Karst environment is very common in southwest China with severe poverty and environmental degradation. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the Karst ecosystem and its ability to provide goods and services for society. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial distribution of organic productivity values (OPV) in Northwest Guangxi, China in 1985, 1990, 2000, and 2005 using remote sensing and geographic information system techniques. OPV showed a decreasing trend in the last 20 years though there were fluctuations. OPV was 184.85, 117.53, 163.66 and 177.25 million Yuan in 1985, 1990, 2000 and 2005, respectively. Woodland and shrub were the two largest contributors to total OPV. They accounted for 70.51%, 69.13%, 73.92% and 66.23%, respectively, in those four years. Conversely, OPVof residential and barren rock was low with a percentage of 0.70%, 0.56%, 0.57% and 0.90%, respectively. Spatially, OPVis higher in the west than in the east. However, OPV increased in typical Karst areas but decreased in non-Karst areas. Our study indicates that ecosystem conditions in Karst areas had improved because of the application of rocky desertification control policies.     

A Comparative Study on the Microbiological Characteristics of Soils Under Different Land—Use Conditions from Karst Areas of Southwest China

Microbiological and physical-chemical characteristics of subtropical forest,grassland and cropfield soils from the karst areas of Southwest China were investigated.The study revealed that the conversion of natural forest to other forms of land would lead to a reduction in soil organic C(26.2%-35.3%),total N(37.2%-55.8%),totalP(32.9%-43.6%),microbial biomass C(35.4%-49.1%),N(37.2%-55.8),and P(25.8%-41.9%).Comparative analysis of microbial activity in terms of basal soil respiration showed maximum activity in forest soil and minimum in cropfield soil.Analysis of microbial metabolic respiratory activity indicated a relatively greater respiratory loss of CO2-C per unit microbial biomass in cropfield and grassland than in forest soil.Considering the importance of microbial components in soil,it is concluded that land use in different ways will lead to the reduction of biological stabilty of soil.     

Rocky desertification and its causes in karst areas: a case study in Yongshun County,Hunan Province,China

Rocky desertification, a process of land degradation characterized by soil erosion and bedrock exposure, is one of the most serious land degradation problems in karst areas, and is regarded as an obstacle to local sustainable development. It is well known that human activities can accelerate rocky desertification; however, the effects of climate change on rocky desertification in karst areas are still unclear. This study focused on the effects of temperature and precipitation changes and human activities on rocky desertification in karst areas to determine the impacts of climate change and human disturbances on rocky desertification. Areas of different level of rocky desertification were obtained from Landsat TM (1987) and Landsat ETM+ (2000) images. The results show that, although the total desertification area increased by only 1.27% between 1987 and 2000, 17.73% of the slightly desertified land had degraded to a moderate or intense level, 2.01 and 15.71%, respectively. Meanwhile, between 1987 and 2000, the air temperature increased by 0.7°C, and precipitation increased by 170 mm. Statistical results indicate that the increase in precipitation was caused by heavy rainfall. In addition, under the interactive influences of heavy rainfall and temperature, the average karst dissolution rate was about 87 m³ km⁻² a⁻¹ during the 14 years in the study area. Further analysis indicated that rocky desertification was positively related with the increase in temperature and precipitation and especially with the heavy rainfall events. Climate change accelerated rocky desertification in the karst areas. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Potentiality of land and water resources in African Sahara: a case study of south Egypt

The investigated area is located south Egypt, between latitudes 22°00′N and 24°15′N, and longitudes 28°00′E and 30°00′E. It covers a total area of about 95,000.17 km². The area was remotely sensed to identify landscape and its land and water resources. A reconnaissance survey followed by detailed one was done to verify the information resulted from satellite images. The prevailing deposits of the area could be expressed as (1) the Nubian sandstone, (2) the Quaternary sediments, and (3) the sand dunes belt. Fourteen main and sub-main landforms were recognized, i.e., sand sheets (high, moderately high, moderate, and low), depressions (high, moderately high, moderate, and low), dry valleys, peniplains, footslopes, barchans, tablelands, and scattered hills. Associated soils were distinguished and classified as Typic Torripsamments, Typic Haplocalcids, Typic Torrifluvents, and Typic Haplodurids. Spatial variability of soil and water characteristics was identified through using ordinary Kriging interpolation method. Land surface temperatures in both summer and winter seasons were derived from thermal band, and soil temperature regimes were defined digitally as hyperthermic. Water potentiality was identified and classified according to salinity and sodicity hazards to C2-S1 and C3-S1. Using GIS techniques, soil potentiality spatial model (SPSM) was designed to get potentiality classes, i.e., high, moderately high, moderate, low, and very low.     

Impact of land use change on groundwater quality in a typical karst watershed of southwest China: a case study of the Xiaojiang watershed,Yunnan Province

The impact of land-use change on the quality of groundwater in the Xiaotjiang watershed, China was assessed for the period 1982–2004. Groundwater samples were collected from 30 monitoring points across the watershed, and were representative of the various changes, determined by remote sensing and geographical information systems. The results indicate that 610 km² (60% of the total watershed area) were subject to land-use change during the period. The most important changes were the conversion of 135 km² of forested land to cultivated land, and 211 km² of unused land to cultivated land. The main impact was ascribed to diffuse pollution from fertilizers applied to newly cultivated land, and from building development. Overall the groundwater pH value was significantly increased, as were the concentrations of ions , , , , and Cl⁻ in groundwater whilst the concentrations of Ca²⁺ and declined. More precisely, in the regions where forested land and unused land were converted into cultivated land, the pH value and the concentrations of Mg²⁺, , , , , Cl⁻ increased whilst the concentrations of Ca²⁺ and declined. However in the region where cultivated land was converted into construction land, the pH value and the concentrations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, , , , , , Cl⁻ increased.

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Résumé  L’impact des changements de l’utilisation du territoire sur la qualité de l’eau souterraine dans le bassin versant de Xiaojiang, en Chine, a été évalué de 1982 à 2004. Des échantillons d’eau souterraine ont été récoltés à partir de 30 points d’observation éparpillés sur le bassin, représentant les divers changements déterminés par télédétection et système d’information géographique. Les résultats indiquent que 610 km² (soit 60% de la surface du bassin) ont été sujets à des modifications de l’utilisation du territoire sur cette période. Les changements les plus importants furent la conversion de 135 km² de forêt et 211 km² de terres inutilisées en terres cultivées. Le principal impact est attribué à la pollution diffuse des engrais utilisés en agriculture et pour les batiments. De manière générale le pH de l’eau souterraine a augmenté significativement, ainsi que les concentrations des ions , , , , et Cl⁻, tandis que les concentration en Ca²⁺ et ont diminué. Plus précisément dans les régions transformées en terres cultivées, la valeur du pH et les concentrations en Mg²⁺, , , , , Cl⁻ ont augmenté tandis que les concentrations en Ca²⁺ et ont diminué. Toutefois dans les régions cultivées converties en zones de construction, le pH et les concentrations en Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, , , , , , Cl⁻ ont augmenté.

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Resumen  El impacto del cambio en uso de la tierra en la calidad del agua en la cuenca Xiaojiang, China fue evaluado para el periodo 1982–2004. Muestras de agua subterránea fueron tomadas de 30 puntos de monitoreo a través de la cuenca, y fueron representativas de los múltiples cambios, determinados por sensores remotos y sistemas de información geográfica. Los resultados indican que 610 km² (60% del área total de la cuenca) estaban sujetos a cambios de uso de la tierra durante el periodo estudiado. Los cambios más importantes fueron la conversión de 135 km² de bosques a tierra cultivada, y 211 km² de tierra sin uso (ociosa) a tierra cultivada. El impacto principal fue causado por contaminación difusa de fertilizantes aplicados a la tierra recientemente cultivada, y a desarrollo de construcciones. En general el pH en agua subterránea creció significantemente, al igual que las concentraciones de los iones , , , , y Cl⁻ en agua subterránea mientras que las concentraciones de Ca²⁺ y decrecieron. Mas precisamente, en las regiones donde bosque y tierra ociosa fueron convertidas en tierra cultivada, el valor de pH y las concentraciones de Mg²⁺, , , , , Cl⁻ crecieron mientras las concentraciones de Ca²⁺ y decrecieron. Sin embargo en la región donde tierra cultivada fue convertida en construcciones, el valor de pH y las concentraciones de Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, , , , , , Cl⁻ crecieron.

     

岩溶区山-坝系统土地利用耦合演化研究的初步探讨

文章阐述了岩溶区山-坝系统土地利用耦合演化研究的必要性,梳理了岩溶区山-坝系统土地利用变化研究进展及其存在的问题。在此基础上,首先构建了基于远程耦合模型的岩溶区山-坝系统土地利用耦合演化研究的理论分析框架;其次,探讨了岩溶区山-坝系统土地利用耦合演变过程、驱动机制、管控模式、影响评估四点研究内容;最后提出了实证研究思路与技术途径。     

中国岩溶地区石漠化贫困问题研究进展

岩溶地区是实施乡村振兴战略的坚中之坚,是极易出现返贫的地区之一,有必要梳理总结岩溶地区消除石漠化贫困的历程、成果和存在的问题,巩固脱贫攻坚成果,夯实乡村振兴的理论基础。本研究以岩溶地区实施重大生态工程的时间节点为主线,参考各阶段前人取得的阶段性和标志性成果,系统梳理了石漠化贫困的相关概念和研究历程;然后对各阶段的研究热点进行整理,归纳总结了石漠化与农村贫困的关系、石漠化致贫机制、消除石漠化贫困的策略、防治工程减贫效益评价等4个方面的前人研究成果。研究表明:石漠化贫困与石漠化区贫困的界限不清,是造成石漠化防治工程和精准扶贫衔接脱节的原因之一,应突出石漠化区生态脆弱的特性,将生态建设有机融入巩固脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接之中,实现生态、资源、人口和经济各要素的耦合协调发展;工作超前,理论基础研究落后的现实依然存在,应加强石漠化区乡村人地关系及相对贫困的研究,探究石漠化阻碍乡村振兴的制约机制;此外,在岩溶地区生态质量不断提升的背景下,应优化石漠化防治工程后评价体系,凸显社会效益和经济效益评价的重要性,总结经验、汲取教训,巩固岩溶地区脱贫攻坚成果,实现脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有效衔接。     

基于土地利用情景模拟的喀斯特关键带生态系统服务权衡与协同分析——以蒙自喀斯特断陷盆地为例

以蒙自喀斯特断陷盆地为例,利用CLUE-S模型设置自然演化、微度、适度、强力生态治理情景并探究2030年不同情景对生态系统服务的影响及权衡与协同特征。结果表明：（1）2018年蒙自喀斯特断陷盆地植被净初级生产力（NPP）、产水量、覆盖型喀斯特区土壤保持量、裸露型喀斯特区土壤保持量、食物供给量分别增加了13.98%、38.97%、23.04%、25%、105.43%,且各种服务变化存在一定的空间差异性;（2）随着生态治理力度加大,2030年NPP和土壤保持量不断增加,产水量不断减少,食物供给量在强力生态治理情景下减少,在其他三种情景下增加;（3）NPP与产水量、食物供给量为权衡关系,与土壤保持量为协同关系;产水量与土壤保持量为权衡关系,与食物供给量为协同关系;土壤保持量与食物供给量为权衡关系;（4）相较于2018年,适度生态治理情景下四种生态系统服务之间的协调性最好,是较为合理的生态治理模式。     

Initial assessment of recharge areas for large karst springs: a case study from the central Zagros Mountains,Iran

Sousan Spring emerges from the Keyno Anticline, Zagros Mountains (Iran), and the mean annual discharge is ~24 m³/s. Geological and hydrochemical evaluations suggest that the spring recharge is from the limestone Ilam-Sarvak Formation (Cretaceous) but the Mafaroon Fault, a major thrust feature, influences the regional groundwater flow path by juxtaposing other strata. Geological, geochemical, stable isotope and water balance studies were employed to interpret this behavior. Using the isotope data, the sources and elevations of the recharge area were found. Temporal variations of the isotopic data were compared with variations of electrical conductivity (EC). Unexpectedly, high EC was associated with a relative increase of discharge and depletion of δ¹⁸O. Several hypotheses were investigated and approximate water balance studies employed for validation. It was found that an elongated catchment on the Keyno Anticline plus a lesser catchment on a pair of parallel anticlines recharge the aquifer. While the long groundwater flow path along the Keyno Anticline plus guidance by Mafaroon Fault and the adjacent Garou shaly strata lead to increased EC in the Sousan Spring at the end of the dry season, a flow pulse from two adjoining anticlines (Mahalbakh and Shirgoon) arrives at the same time to increase the discharge and deplete the δ¹⁸O signal. Apparently the spring did not experience true base flow conditions during the recorded hydrological year. Although the spring response to specific precipitation events was similar to typical karst aquifers, standard interpretation of recession curves and related coefficients will not be practical at Sousan.     

西南岩溶山区复合水动力场滑坡影响模式——以关岭县大寨滑坡为例

岩溶地下水对我国西南岩溶石山地区特大型滑坡频发具有重要影响,因此,岩溶地下水的赋存规律及在其影响下的滑坡成灾模式成为一个亟待研究的科学问题。文章以贵州省关岭县岗乌镇大寨村大寨滑坡为例,基于野外调查,结合水动力场、水化学数据、暴雨数据等进行综合分析,取得以下成果和认识:（1）划分出大寨滑坡区地下分水岭,圈定了影响大寨滑坡的灰岩区和碎屑岩区,面积分别为0.93,0.30 km2;（2）滑坡当日暴雨集中在6—12时,后缘区域岩溶管道水对大寨滑坡滞后暴雨2 h启动起到主要控制作用;（3）滑坡区碎屑岩以及后缘灰岩接受了百年一遇的强降水的入渗补给后,在各自内部形成高压水动力场;在基岩裂隙水、岩溶管道水两种水动力场及岩层自身重力的共同作用下,潜在软弱结构面上的岩层失稳进而发生滑坡。由此建立了基岩裂隙水和岩溶管道水复合水动力场对滑坡的影响模式,并提出一种复合水动力场耦合方法。     

潜蚀作用导致岩溶塌陷地质灾害的实例分析

淳安县某村于2005年2月初发生民房墙体开裂、地面裂缝、砼路面层与路基脱开、施工缝拉裂等地质灾害现象。从破坏特征看,该灾害应属于地面沉降,但却不具备发育通常概念“地面沉降”的地质环境条件。文章根据灾害区附近灰岩溶洞较发育、表部松散层厚度较大等条件,认为灾害由地下水潜蚀作用引起,并试图恢复其作用机制。指出如不加以治理,可能造成灾难。     

Sustainable yield of a karst aquifer system: a case study of Jinan springs in northern China

Based on the long-term monitoring data of rainfall, groundwater levels, groundwater abstraction, spring flow rates and groundwater quality, an assessment has been undertaken of the sustainable yield of a karst aquifer system in Shandong Province, northern China, to maintain perennial outflow of the karst springs while meeting water demands. One of the fundamental indicators for sustainable yield of groundwater is identified as maximum allowable water-level drawdown. A regional three-dimensional finite-difference numerical model has been developed to optimize the schemes associated with well fields and their locations and sustainable yields, in the Jinan spring catchment and its adjacent karst groundwater catchments, with the aim of maintaining the water level higher than the allowable lowest water level of 27.5?m above sea level. Furthermore, measures necessary to move towards sustainable use of the karst groundwater are outlined, drawing on contingency plans of water-source replacement and artificial recharge, dual water supply (based in water quality), use of the spring waters themselves, and groundwater quality protection.     

Environmental degradation assessment in arid areas: a case study from Basra Province, southern Iraq

Evaluation of recent land degradation affecting Basra Province, Iraq, resulted in the identification of five prominent environmental degradation processes: desertification, secondary salinization, urbanization, vegetation degradation, and loss of wetlands. This analysis was carried out using ‘3S’ technologies [remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS), and global position system], with the layers extracted and manipulated from available topographic, climatic, and soil maps, as well as satellite image (thematic mapping in 1990 and enhanced thematic mapping in 2003) and field survey data analyses. Rates of conversion were calculated and distribution patterns were mapped with the aid of a GIS. The results revealed that land use changes have affected the wider environment and accelerated land degradation, with severe damage located in southwestern Basra Province representing 28.1 % of the total area. Areas of high to moderate degradation characterize the rest of the south, representing 52.7 % of the total area; while the north of the study region is characterized by very low and low degradation levels accounting for 8.5 and 10.7 %, respectively. Iraq faces serious environmental degradation problems that must be addressed immediately; failure to do so will greatly compound the cost and complexity of later remedial efforts, with environmental degradation beginning even now to pose a major threat to human well-being, especially among the poor.     

Ornamental stone potential areas for land use planning: a case study in a limestone massif from Portugal

Nowadays, the difficulties of the mining sector in accessing the territory are mostly related to inadequate land use plans. Mineral potential maps have become quite relevant for the land use planning authorities as a decision support tool. This work’s goal is to present a methodology based on geological criteria, for the delimitation of potential areas for ornamental stones production in a limestone area of Portugal known as Maciço Calcário Estremenho. This is one of the world’s most important regions producing limestone blocks for ornamental purposes. The methodology, applied at a scale similar to the commonly used in land use planning, considers two main geological-based criteria for the definition of potential areas, namely the homogeneity criterion, related to the textural and chromatic homogeneity of the potentially productive lithologic units, and the dimension criterion, which refers to the thickness of the productive unit, to the volume of the deposit and to its spatial layout. Based on the criteria, two main types of potential areas for ornamental stones’ production were delimited: specific areas, where the lithostratigraphic units demonstrate ornamental suitability at a very local scale due to highly appreciated particular features, and areas corresponding to the entire outcrop area of some of the lithostratigraphic units, which due to the resource volume are the most relevant potential areas.     

典型喀斯特地貌类型区小流域划分——以贵州省金沙县为例

我国水土保持和石漠化防治是以小流域为单元来开展工作的,而在喀斯特地区进行小流域划分的研究还比较少。以1∶5万地形图作为工作底图,进行数字化采集并结合空间插值的方法生成贵州省金沙县DEM数据,并以GIS的水文分析模块为基础,经过自动提取微流域,微流域归并,流域边界验证等过程,最终提取金沙县小流域338个。从提取的结果来看,小流域的面积集中分布在3~10 km2范围内,占小流域总数的79.29%;在完整型、区间型和坡面型三种小流域类型中,研究区小流域类型以完整型小流域为主;绝大部分流域的分界线能够达到要求,在峰林、峰丛、洼地分布的地方会出现分界线偏离山顶点或者鞍部,这些地方水系网络复杂,自动提取的小流域与实际不相符合,需要进行手动修改。      

Territorial disparities, natural resource distribution, and land degradation: a case study in southern Europe

The aim of this paper is to analyse the territorial disparities in some socio-economic and environmental factors involved in land degradation (LD) processes in a dry Mediterranean region. A simplified framework in which ecological and economic factors may increase inequality in natural resource distribution along the elevation gradient and accelerate LD is illustrated. To test at a local scale if territorial disparities observed in such factors have increased in the last period, we studied changes in LD sensitivity over thirty years in Latium, central Italy, a region prone to soil degradation phenomena. An estimate of LD sensitivity at the municipality level was obtained through a synthetic index (ISD) composed by three partial indicators analysing respectively climate and soil conditions (CLI), land use characteristics (LAN), and human pressure (POP). ISD and the three partial indicators were computed separately for 1970 and 2000. The divergence in LD sensitivity among coastal and inland areas significantly increased over the study period. In the former zones, median ISD increased with a reduction in score variability among municipalities; the reverse pattern was observed in the latter zones. Differences in ISD score among the elevation gradient are especially due to human factors affecting land use changes and agriculture intensification. New findings to be achieved in the context of human impacts on the environment as an original contribution to the study of LD at a local scale were finally delineated.     

岩溶地区旅游生态安全评价及趋势分析——以广西为例

岩溶地区拥有丰富的旅游资源,但是生态环境相对脆弱,根据岩溶地区旅游发展的特点,以"压力-状态-响应"（PSR）模型为基础,同时从生态安全的概念出发,涵盖生态风险、生态健康和生态足迹指标,建立了岩溶地区旅游生态安全评价指标体系。调整的主要指标包括:土地压力指标、旅游经济密度、年平均气温和年平均降雨量指标、旅游空间密度、游客密度指数、旅游收入指标等。采用综合指数法和熵权法,分别引入2012年和2007年两年的数据,对广西岩溶地区旅游生态安全的现状、发展趋势及变化趋势的内在原因进行了分析。实证结果表明:（1）从现状评价看,2007、2012年广西岩溶地区旅游生态安全水平总体较低,处于安全级别的城市主要位于广西中部区域,其他城市则处于不安全级别;（2）从影响指标看,经济状态和旅游生态状态对当地的旅游生态安全影响较大;（3）从变化趋势看,广西岩溶地区旅游生态安全状态逐渐好转,广西中部地区保持安全状态,紧邻广西中部地区的地市处于持续危险区域,但综合指数呈上升趋势;梧州和贵港两个位于广西东部的城市同样处于持续危险区域,但是旅游生态安全综合指数呈小幅下降趋势;（4）旅游生态安全状态和趋势与岩溶分布没有显著的相关关系。