气候变化背景下江苏省水稻气候适宜性区划研究

综合利用前人研究结果与江苏地区水稻生长所需的光、温、水特性,提出了江苏水稻气候适宜性评价指标为适宜生长期、5—10月降水量、t≥10℃活动积温、日照时数;依据现有稻麦（油）两熟的耕作制度,确立了江苏水稻气候适宜性区划因子和分级阈值。基于1961—2019年江苏省及周边共85个站（市、区）的气象数据,采用模糊综合评判法建立水稻气候适宜性评估模型,并确定综合评估指数,利用ArcGIS的自然断点法,将江苏中熟中粳、迟熟中粳、早熟晚粳、中熟晚粳种植适宜区进行区划。通过30a尺度下的年代际分析发现,由于适宜生长期延长和活动积温增加,使得四个品种特性的水稻适宜种植区域均有所调整,其中晚熟粳稻的种植范围北扩到淮河以南地区。     

尤溪县再生稻种植气候区划

分析了再生稻生长对气候条件的要求和尤溪气候的基本特征。再生稻生长主要与稳定通过 10℃初日、稳定通过 2 2℃终日、≥ 10℃活动积温、10～ 2 2℃持续日数及其活动积温等气候要素关系密切 ,根据气象站 (哨 )资料 ,建立其空间分布模式 ,利用地理信息系统和Arcview软件制作分布图 ,并结合再生稻示范推广的情况 ,将尤溪具水稻生产分为 4个生产区 :双季稻种植区、再生稻种植适宜区、单季稻晚熟品种种植区 (再生稻种植过渡区 )和单季稻中熟品种种植区。     

我县秋季低温气候分析

我县耕作制度的基本形式是一年三熟,春花、早稻、晚稻三季作物收种时期接连,季节紧凑。在温度偏低或秋季低温出现早的年份,晚稻往往因受低温影响,导致减产。为此,我们根据历史气候资料,对我县秋季低温气候资料作一些分析,供农业生产参考。一、我县晚稻生育期的热量条件: 我县夏秋季节以晴热天气为主,气温和日照都适合晚稻生长发育。据新仓公社农科站六年在公社丰产方的晚稻生育期温气记载,晚稻农虎66号和44号的全生育期为143天±1.1天,总积温为3315℃±60℃,其中播种到齐穗的总积温为2426℃±38℃,统计我县1954年来的25年中,6月20日到11月10日,总积温为3414℃±83.7℃,其中6月20日到9月25日的总积温为2620℃±74.9℃。因此,我县晚粳的热量条件是可以满足的,而且是稍有余额,这是我县夺取晚稻稳产高产的基本条件。见表一、表二。     

黑龙江省水稻生产区域划分的初步研究

本文在分析气象因子与水稻生长发育关系基础上,充分考虑黑龙江省水资源条件、气候形势、地域特征及耕作制度,利用1971～2000年的气象资料,计算黑龙江省稳定通过18℃的天数、≥10℃积温及稻田干燥度指数等,通过指标对比分析,提出黑龙江省水稻区划细划的初步结论,为黑龙江省充分利用气候资源、获得高产优质农业提供参考依据。     

潮州市近年来气候变化特征及水稻生产对策

潮州市地处广东省东南部 ,属南亚热带季风气候 ,水稻生产的气候资源十分丰富 ,随着全球气候变暖 ,水稻生产期间也出现了温度变暖的趋势。本文主要分析影响潮州市水稻生产农业气象因子的阶段性变化特点 ,探讨如何充分利用气候资源优势 ,实现水稻生产优质高产高效。1　潮州市水稻生产农业气象条件的变化特点1 .1　气温上升 ,积温增多水稻生长发育的起点温度要求在日平均气温1 0℃以上 ,而且当热量条件累积到一定程度后 ,才能完成其生育过程并获得产量。在潮州市 ,早稻从播种到收获需要日平均气温 1 0℃以上活动积温3 1 0 0℃左右 ,晚稻需要 3 …     

基于GIS的棉花气候适宜性区划

采用陕西1981—2010年30a的气候资料,以8月上旬平均气温、8月下旬—10月中旬降水量、5月中旬—6月上旬日照、生育期大于≥10℃的活动积温4个因子作为陕西棉花气候适宜性区划指标。利用GIS空间分析及制图功能,在实现区划指标空间化基础上,采用模糊综合评判方法,对陕西棉花气候适宜性进行区划,陕西省棉花生态气候适宜性区划图分为适宜区、较适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区。陕西棉花气候适宜区主要分布于关中中东部及沿黄河的滩地,在适宜区内,应根据秋季降水预测情况,选择棉花中早熟品种,以避免秋霖危害。     

望谟气候与水稻病虫害的发生和防治

望谟县境内属亚热带温湿季风气候,具有明显的春早、夏长、秋晚、冬短的特点。望谟的水稻从播种到成熟需要≥10℃的活动积温在2300℃左右(早稻)或2600℃左右(晚稻)。在望谟县地区内如果日平均温度≥30℃以上高温连续8~10d,就会出现稻瘟病。     

气候对常德地区水稻产量的影响

本文利用1949—1979年的水稻产量资料和1951—1979年的气象资料,对影响常德地区水稻产量的主要气候因子进行了定量统计分析。文中指出,生育期降水量过多是造成某些年份早稻减产的重要气候原因,提出以生育期降水量作为划分标准,将早稻气候年型分为少水年、常年和多水年三种类型,多水年欠收概率63.6％。文中还指出,秋季低温出现迟早是影响晚稻产量的主要气候因子,并提出以秋季低温出现日期结合生育期降水距平作为划分晚稻气候年型的标准,分为秋冷偏早多水年、秋冷偏早少水年和秋冷正常偏迟年三种类型,秋冷偏早多水年欠收概率70％。     

影响早稻产量的关键时期和关键气象因子的分析

贵县地处南亚热带,是双季稻生产区,早稻全生育期从三月初至七月上旬,大于12℃活动积温2900—3100℃、日照时数450—550小时、降水量600—800毫米,气候条件比较好。但是过去对气候规律认识不够,在早稻生产上存在不同程度的盲目性,加上其他措施不当,产量年际变化较大。为了摸清早稻丰、欠年的气候条件,本文将历年早稻单产和气候条件关系进行定性相关分析,从中找出影响早稻产量的关键期和关键因子,以便采取措施趋利避害,提高产量。     

甘肃三种特色作物气候生态适应性分析与适生种植区划

在田间试验，调研考察，资料分析的基础上，研究了黄花菜、百合、啤酒大麦等特色作物气候生态适应性，确定了3种特色作物的气候生态区划综合指标体系。即：黄花菜取4—8月上旬≥0℃积温、降水量、6—7月日照时数作主导指标及产量作辅助指标；百合选取年≥0℃积温、无霜冻期和花期至鳞茎膨大期(6月中旬至8月上旬)降水量作主导指标，平均产量作辅助指标；啤酒大麦选取年≥0℃积温、幼穗分化期(5月下旬至6月上旬)和灌桨期(6月下旬至7月中旬)平均气温作主导指标，以及产量和品质作辅助指标。对3种特色作物分别进行最适宜、适宜、次适宜、可种植和不宜种植共5级气候生态适生种植的区划，并提出提高气候生态资源利用途径，为种植基地建设、发展规模生产、提高经济效益提供科学的决策依据。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.