Climate sensitivity and climate change under strong forcing

A version of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled climate model is integrated under current climate conditions and in a series of experiments with climate forcings ranging from modest to very strong. The purpose of the experiments is to investigate the nature and behaviour of the climate feedback/sensitivity of the model, its evolution with time and climate state, the robustness of model parameterizations as forcing levels increase, and the possibility of a “runaway” warming under strong forcing. The model is integrated for 50 years, or to failure, after increasing the solar constant by 2.5, 10, 15, 25, 35, and 45% of its control value. The model successfully completes 50 years of integration for the 2.5, 10, 15, and 25% solar constant increases but fails for increases of 35% and 45%. The effective global climate sensitivity evolves with time and analysis indicates that a new equilibrium will be obtained for the 2.5, 10, and 15% cases but that runaway warming is underway for the 25% increase in solar constant. Feedback processes are analysed both locally and globally in terms of longwave and shortwave, clear-sky/surface, and cloud forcing components. Feedbacks in the system must be negative overall and of sufficient strength to balance the positive forcing if the system is to attain a new equilibrium. Longwave negative feedback processes strengthen in a reasonably linear fashion as temperature increases but shortwave feedback processes do not. In particular, solar cloud feedback becomes less negative and, for the 25% forcing case, eventually becomes positive, resulting in temperatures that “run away”. The conditions under which a runaway climate warming might occur have previously been investigated using simpler models. For sufficiently strong forcing, the greenhouse effect of increasing water vapour in a warmer atmosphere is expected to overwhelm the negative feedback of the longwave cooling to space as temperature increases. This is not, however, the reason for the climate instability experienced in the GCM. Instead, the model experiences a “cloud feedback” warming whereby the decrease in cloudiness that occurs when temperature increases beyond a critical value results in an increased absorption of solar radiation by the system, leading to the runaway warming.     

Dependence of climate forcing and response on the altitude of black carbon aerosols

Black carbon aerosols absorb solar radiation and decrease planetary albedo, and thus can contribute to climate warming. In this paper, the dependence of equilibrium climate response on the altitude of black carbon is explored using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. The simulations model aerosol direct and semi-direct effects, but not indirect effects. Aerosol concentrations are prescribed and not interactive. It is shown that climate response of black carbon is highly dependent on the altitude of the aerosol. As the altitude of black carbon increases, surface temperatures decrease; black carbon near the surface causes surface warming, whereas black carbon near the tropopause and in the stratosphere causes surface cooling. This cooling occurs despite increasing planetary absorption of sunlight (i.e. decreasing planetary albedo). We find that the trend in surface air temperature response versus the altitude of black carbon is consistent with our calculations of radiative forcing after the troposphere, stratosphere, and land surface have undergone rapid adjustment, calculated as “regressed” radiative forcing. The variation in climate response from black carbon at different altitudes occurs largely from different fast climate responses; temperature dependent feedbacks are not statistically distinguishable. Impacts of black carbon at various altitudes on the hydrological cycle are also discussed; black carbon in the lowest atmospheric layer increases precipitation despite reductions in solar radiation reaching the surface, whereas black carbon at higher altitudes decreases precipitation.     

关于硝酸盐气溶胶光学特征和辐射强迫的研究进展

在过去的20多年里,中外对硫酸盐气溶胶做了大量的研究,对它在大气中的排放、含量、光学特征和辐射强迫有了深入的认识;由于硝酸盐气溶胶在大气中平均含量比硫酸盐低很多,因此过去人们对硝酸盐的研究没有给予重视。然而,近年来的研究表明,硝酸盐气溶胶的散射性质在某些波段甚至强于硫酸盐;同时,由于未来对人为硫酸盐前体物的减排,硫酸盐气溶胶排放会大幅度减少,而硝酸盐气溶胶的排放却增长迅速,其在人为气溶胶中所占的比重越来越高,将会导致其在未来造成的辐射强迫有可能超过硫酸盐,使得其在地区范围内和季节尺度上成为重要的辐射强迫和气候影响因子。中国是硝酸盐气溶胶排放量较大的地区,硝酸盐对未来中国气候和气候变化的影响显得越来越重要。因此,就近年来有关硝酸盐气溶胶的排放和在大气中的浓度变化、光学厚度分布特征及其辐射强迫的研究进展做了回顾和介绍,并对其未来的研究做了展望。     

Shipboard measurements of concentrations and properties of carbonaceous aerosols during ACE‐2

Mass concentrations of total, organic and black carbon were derived by analyzing the supermicron and submicron aerosol fractions of shipboard collected samples in the easternAtlantic Ocean as part of the second Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE‐2). These analyses were complemented by experiments intended to estimate the water‐soluble fraction of the submicron carbonaceous material. Our results can be summarized as follows. Depending on the sample, between 35% and 80% of total aerosol carbon is associated with the submicron fraction. Total submicron carbon was well correlated with black carbon, a unique tracer for incomplete combustion. These correlations and the approximately constant total to black carbon ratios, suggest that the majority of submicron total carbon is of primary combustion derived origin. No systematic relationship between total submicron aerosol carbon and sulfate concentrations was found. Sulfate concentrations were, with a few exceptions, significantly higher than total carbon. Our experiments have demonstrated that water exposure removed between 36% and 72% of total carbon from the front filter, suggesting that a substantial fraction of the total submicron aerosol organic carbon is water‐soluble. An unexpected result of this study is that water exposure of filter samples caused substantial removal of, nominally insoluble, submicron black carbon. Possible reasons for this observation are discussed.     

Seasonal variations of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and direct radiative forcing over China

Summary Regional climate model (RegCM2) and sulfur transport model (NJUADMS) were combined to simulate the distribution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol burden over China, where a look up table method was applied to illustrate sulfate formation from SO₂-oxidation. Direct radiative forcing of sulfate aerosol was further estimated using the scheme suggested by Charlson et al (1991). Investigations show that the annual average total sulfate column over mainland China is 2.01mg/m² with high value in East and Central areas (more than 7mg/m²). The annual average direct radiative forcing of China is about –0.85W/m². The forcing can reach –7W/m² in Central and East China during the winter season. Total sulfate column shows significant seasonal variations with winter maximum-summer minimum in the Southern part of China and spring maximum-autumn minimum in the northern part of China. Strong seasonal cycles of direct radiative forcing are also found due to the influence of total sulfate column, cloud, relative humidity and the reflectivity of underlying surfaceReceived May 16, 2001; accepted August 5, 2002 Published online: May 8, 2003     

东亚地区人为气溶胶直接辐射强迫及其气候效应的数值模拟

利用耦合化学过程的区域气候模式RegCM3,模拟研究3种主要人为排放气溶胶(硫酸盐、黑碳、有机碳)对东亚区域气候的影响.计算分析近20 a来3种气溶胶的时空分布、综合辐射强迫作用及其对地面气温和降水的影响.模拟结果表明:3种气溶胶冬夏季分布有所不同,冬季气溶胶大值区主要分布在南方地区,而夏季大值区北移;气溶胶短波辐射强迫在大气层顶和地面均为负值;气溶胶的加入对东亚地区地表气温有明显影响,冬季降温中心位于四川盆地,夏季降温大值区位于华北地区.气溶胶直接气候效应使得冬季东亚大部分地区降水减少,夏季东亚地区降水与中国南方地区夏季气溶胶浓度有较好的相关关系,中国东部雨带有南移趋势.     

Biogenic hydrogen sulphide emissions and non-sea sulfate aerosols over the Indian Sundarban mangrove forest

Temporal variations in atmospheric hydrogen sulphide concentrations and its biosphere-atmosphere exchanges were studied in the World’s largest mangrove ecosystem, Sundarbans, India. The results were used to understand the possible contribution of H₂S fluxes in the formation of atmospheric aerosol of different size classes (e.g. accumulation, nucleation and coarse mode). The mixing ratio of hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) over the Sundarban mangrove atmosphere was found maximum during the post-monsoon season (October to January) with a mean value of 0.59?±?0.02 ppb and the minimum during pre-monsoon (February to May) with a mean value of 0.26?±?0.01 ppb. This forest acted as a perennial source of H₂S and the sediment-air emission flux ranged between 1213?±?276 μg S m^?2 d^?1(December) and 457?±?114 μg S m^?2 d^?1 (August) with an annual mean of 768?±?240 μg S m^?2d^?1. The total annual emissions of H₂S from the Indian Sundarban were estimated to be 1.2?±?0.6 Tg S. The accumulation mode of aerosols was found to be more enriched with non-sea salt sulfate with an average loading of 5.74 μg m^?3 followed by the coarse mode (5.18 μg m^?3) and nucleation mode (1.18 μg m^?3). However, the relative contribution of Non-sea salt sulfate aerosol to total sulfate aerosol was highest in the nucleation mode (83%) followed by the accumulation (73%) and coarse mode (58%). Significant positive relations between H₂S flux and different modes of NSS indicated the likely link between H₂S, a dominant precursor for the non-sea salt sulfate, and non-sea sulfate aerosol particles. An increase in H₂S emissions from the mangrove could result in an increase in enhanced NSS in aerosol and associated cloud albedo, and a decrease in the amount of incoming solar radiation reaching the Sundarban mangrove forest.     

Regional temperature response due to indirect sulfate aerosol forcing: impact of model resolution

A regional atmospheric climate model, including an interactive module of the tropospheric sulfur cycle, has been used to conduct yearlong equilibrium simulations of the temperature response due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing on cloud albedo. A main purpose is to examine differences in the magnitudes as well as patterns of forcing and response between simulations conducted with high (0.4° × 0.4°, HR) and low (2.0° × 2.0°, LR) spatial resolutions. Averaged over the model domain, the annual mean indirect forcing differs by only 7% between HR and LR and there is no difference in the annual mean temperature response. The results thus indicate that it is not important to represent small-scale variability (=2.8°) when the average indirect climate effect over Europe is considered. However, a notable difference in the geographical distributions of forcing and response is obtained when different resolutions are employed. In addition, a clear correspondence between the patterns of radiative forcing and temperature response is obtained when HR is used. The correspondence is less obvious in the LR simulation. It is interesting to compare the present results with those of Roeckner et al. 1999, who found a poor correspondence between the patterns of forcing and response in their simulations using a coarse resolution GCM.     

Chemical effect of carbonaceous aerosols on the diurnal cycle of MBL ozone at a tropical site: measurements and simulations

During late austral summer and winter 1998, black carbon (BC) aerosols were monitored with an Aethalometer at 2 sites of La Réunion Island (Indian Ocean): Saint‐Denis, the main city and Sainte‐Rose, a quite uninhabited region situated at the east coast. BC concentration data at Saint‐Denis show a marked diurnal cycle, which may be primarily attributed to traffic. The background data found at night‐time display average BC concentrations, ranging from about 80 to 250 ng/m³ whereas during the day, BC concentrations increase by a factor of at least 4. In comparison, BC concentrations vary in the range of 10 to 60 ng/m³ at Sainte‐Rose. Ozone concentration was also measured at Saint‐Denis using a Dasibi photometer and found to be at significant levels (means: 16.5–23 ppbv in April and 28.5–34 ppbv in September). A noticeable increase of ozone concentrations during the day points out the build‐up of pollutants enhancing photochemical transformations. However, during traffic pollution peaks, ozone concentration displays systematic depletion. The comparison of ozone and BC measurements at both seasons points to some possible effects of heterogeneous interaction of ozone and its precursors with BC particles. These interactions were also simulated with a 0D time‐dependent chemistry model using conditions of a polluted site. The measured ozone concentration characteristics (mean concentration and range of variation) are well simulated in the presence of BC. Our model results show that at La Réunion Island adsorption of ozone and its precursors onto BC aerosol particles could be one of the important steps determining ozone concentration characteristics, especially in absence of photochemistry during night‐time.     

Climate variability attributable to terrestrial and oceanic forcing in the NCAR CAM3-CLM3 Models

Based on numerical experiments using the NCAR CAM3-CLM3 models, this paper examines the impact of soil moisture, vegetation, and sea surface temperature (SST) on the inter-annual variability of climate over land. For each element, two experiments are carried out, with the inter-annual variability preserved in one experiment and eliminated in the other. Differences in the standard deviation of the precipitation and air temperature at the inter-annual time scale are used to quantify the impacts from soil moisture dynamics, vegetation dynamics, and oceanic forcing. The impact of oceanic forcing is mainly limited to the Tropics, with the strongest signal in the equatorial zone, and moisture convergence is the key linkage between SST forcing and tropical precipitation. Soil moisture plays a significant role in climate variability during the rainy seasons of all semi-arid regions (which is consistent with many previous studies), and during the dry seasons of the humid Amazon. Evapotranspiration is identified as the main mechanism linking precipitation variability to soil moisture. Amazon is the only region where vegetation dynamics has a significant influence on precipitation variability. However, the impact of vegetation dynamics on temperature is strong over the US Great Plains in all four seasons and in the Amazon region during the dry and dry-to-wet transition seasons.     

Projections of SO2, NOx and carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia

Estimates of Asian emissions of air pollutants and carbonaceous aerosols and their mid-term projections have been changing significantly in the last years. The remote sensing community has shown that increase in NO _x in Central East Asia is much stronger than any of the emission inventories or projections indicated so far. A number of studies reviewing older estimates appeared. Here, we review the key contributions and compare them to the most recent results of the GAINS model application for Asia and to the SRES projections used in the IPPC work. The recent projections indicate that the growth of emissions of SO₂ in Asia should slow down significantly towards 2010 or even stabilize at the current level. For NO _x , however, further growth is projected although it will be most likely slower that in the last decade, owing to introduction of measures in transport. Emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon and organic carbon) are expected to decline after 2010, largely due to reduced use of biofuels in residential sector and efficiency improvements. The estimates of these emissions are burdened with significantly larger uncertainties than SO₂ and NO _x ; even for the year 2000 the differences in estimates between studies are up to a factor of 2.     

Climate change and upwelling: response of Iberian upwelling to atmospheric forcing in a regional climate scenario

The regional ocean modeling system is used, at a resolution of 1/12°, to explicitly simulate the ocean circulation near the Iberian coast during two 30-year simulations forced by atmospheric fields produced by the RACMO regional climate model. The first simulation is a control run for the present climate (1961–1990) and the second is a scenario run from the IPCC A2 scenario (2071–2100). In the control run, the model reproduces some important features of the regional climate but with an overestimation of upwelling intensity, mainly attributable to inaccuracies in the coastal wind distributions when compared against reanalysis data. A comparison between the scenario and control simulations indicates a significant increase in coastal upwelling, with more frequent events with higher intensity, leading to an overall enhancement of SST variability on both the intra- and inter-annual timescales. The increase in upwelling intensity is more prominent in the northern limit of the region, near cape Finisterre, where its mean effect extends offshore for a few hundred kms, and is able to locally cancel the effect of global warming. If these results are confirmed, climate change will have a profound impact on the regional marine ecosystem.     

QBO-like Oscillations Induced by Local Thermal Forcing

A zonal-vertical two-dimensional equatorial model is used to study the possibility that the long period oscillation of the zonal mean flow occurring in the lower equatorial stratosphere (QBO) is caused by local thermal ac-tivities at the tropical tropopause. The model successfully reproduces QBO-like oscillations of the zonal mean flow, suggesting that the local heating or cooling at the tropical tropopause is probably the main reason of QBO’s genera-tion. The analysis of the dependence of the oscillation on the wave fencing indicates that the oscillation is not sensible to the forcing scale. The model can reproduce QBO-like oscillations with any forcing scale if the fencing period and amplitude take appropriate values, proving that the internal gravity waves generated by local thermal source take much important roles in QBO.