Assessment of susceptibility to landslides through geographic information systems and the logistic regression model

Natural Hazards - The increase in the frequency of natural disasters in recent years and its consequent social, economic and environmental impacts make it possible to prioritize areas of risk as an...     

Landfill site selection by using geographic information systems

One of the serious and growing potential problems in most large urban areas is the shortage of land for waste disposal. Although there are some efforts to reduce and recover the waste, disposal in landfills is still the most common method for waste destination. An inappropriate landfill site may have negative environmental, economic and ecological impacts. Therefore, it should be selected carefully by considering both regulations and constraints on other sources. In this study, candidate sites for an appropriate landfill area in the vicinity of Ankara are determined by using the integration of geographic information systems and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). For this purpose, 16 input map layers including topography, settlements (urban centers and villages), roads (Highway E90 and village roads), railways, airport, wetlands, infrastructures (pipelines and power lines), slope, geology, land use, floodplains, aquifers and surface water are prepared and two different MCDA methods (simple additive weighting and analytic hierarchy process) are implemented to a geographical information system. Comparison of the maps produced by these two different methods shows that both methods yield conformable results. Field checks also confirm that the candidate sites agree well with the selected criteria.     

三峡库区泄滩滑坡渗流场与应力场耦合分析

随着大规模梯级水电工程的不断发展,库岸滑坡的稳定性及潜在的涌浪灾害将是影响水电工程(群)全生命周期安全运行的关键因素。本文分别从库岸边坡稳定性及滑坡涌浪研究两个方面,对目前国内外的相关研究成果进行了系统总结和分析。在库岸边坡稳定性研究方面,越来越多的研究集中于降雨、库水位变动等水动力环境下的库岸边坡的水-岩耦合作用及稳定性演化的分析方法方面。通过对滑坡涌浪的物理模型试验法、解析法及数值模拟法3大类方法的优缺点分析,随着数值计算技术的飞速发展其在滑坡涌浪链生灾害动力学分析方面体现出其强大的生命力。库岸滑坡从渐进破坏→启动→高速运动、涌浪→堆积、涌浪传播与爬坡等构成了滑坡涌浪灾害链的不同阶段,也是一个连续的灾害过程,而不同阶段灾害特点又有很大的差异。然而,目前通常将库岸滑坡稳定性分析和涌浪分析分割开来,从而不能很好地反应这一灾害链过程。基于高性能数值计算技术,从全过程的物理力学机制出发构建灾害链的模拟和分析方法,将是目前的发展趋势,也是从解决库岸滑坡涌浪链生灾害动力学分析的关键。     

Slope vulnerability to earthquakes at subregional scale, using probabilistic techniques and geographic information systems

The susceptibility of slopes to failure during earthquakes is calculated, in terms of critical horizontal acceleration, on a subregional scale for the upper part of the Serchio River basin (Tuscany, Italy). According to the working scale (1:10 000) and to the availability and accuracy of the input data, the infinite slope analysis was judged to be the most appropriate method, but particular attention was devoted to the error evaluation due to spatial variability of the geotechnic, geometric, and hydrologic parameters. A geologic, geomorphologic and hydrologic survey of the area was therefore performed, and the geotechnic parameters were collected at local administrations. All the data were stored in a GIS, used as a tool to build the spatial and attribute data base and to prepare the input data layers for the stability analysis. In order to assess the variability of geotechnic parameters, a statistical analysis was performed to assign the best-fitting probability distribution to cohesion, angle of internal friction and unit weight of the soil. As hydrogeologic data were not available for the area, only surface hydrology information could be used; a map of probability of spring occurrences was derived by a bayesian method, the Weight of Evidence Modelling, and was used as groundwater indicator. A Monte Carlo procedure and a first-order second-moment method were applied and compared as error estimators in assessing the slope susceptibility to failure. The differences between the two methods are discussed, and two maps showing, respectively, the critical horizontal acceleration and the probability of failure associated with each slope are presented, together with the curve plotting the reliability index against the probability of failure.     

Flood forecasting and analysis within the Ulus Basin, Turkey, using geographic information systems

Floods have been the most severe natural disasters in the West Black Sea Region of Turkey for many years; therefore Ulus Basin is selected as a study area for a thorough hydrologic flood analysis. The lack of embankments around the Ulus River and careless changes to the riverbed made by villagers, resulted in major flood events in the basin, causing significant damage in the area. In this study, the hydrodynamic characteristics of the basin and the riverbed are determined by calibrating the hydraulic module of the MIKE 11 modeling system with the observed 1991 flood. Then, for the 25-, 50- and 100-year floods the highest water levels in the river are forecasted by integration of the MIKE 11 hydrologic and hydraulic modules. Afterwards, inundation maps are obtained by using together the hydraulic and GIS modules of the MIKE 11 system.     

Opportunities provided by geographic information systems and volunteered geographic information for a timely emergency response during flood events in Cologne,Germany

The occurrence of disasters such as extreme flooding in urban environments has severe consequences, not only on the human population but also on critical infrastructures such as the road networks, which are of vital importance for everyday living and particularly for emergency response. In this article, our main goal is to present-conceptually and in praxis-a model that could be used from the emergency responders for timely and efficient emergency management and response in an urban complex environment. For the city of Cologne in Germany, we aim to indicate possible ways to decrease the emergency response time during an extreme flood scenario through the development of an accessibility indicator, which consists of different components. Therefore, we will investigate the opportunities that occur, in a flood risk scenario, from the use of geographic information in different forms such as Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) and open-source data in an ArcGIS environment, to increase urban resilience through the decreasing emergency response time. We will focus on network analysis for the fire brigades (first acting emergency responders) during a flood scenario to calculate their emergency response ranges and emergency response routes through flooded road networks, for the assistance of the possibly affected hospitals, refugee homes and fire brigades, which can be flooded. At the end of the paper, we suggest that the vulnerable community of the refugees could be taken into consideration as a new source of VGI, as an additional component that would lead to the decrease in the emergency response time. The geo-located information that could be provided by the refugee community can be very useful in emergency situations, such as those examined in this article where timely information can be forwarded to the proper authorities for a more focused and timely emergency response, increasing the resilience of the urban population and their community.

     

Opportunities provided by geographic information systems and volunteered geographic information for a timely emergency response during flood events in Cologne,Germany

The occurrence of disasters such as extreme flooding in urban environments has severe consequences, not only on the human population but also on critical infrastructures such as the road networks, which are of vital importance for everyday living and particularly for emergency response. In this article, our main goal is to present-conceptually and in praxis-a model that could be used from the emergency responders for timely and efficient emergency management and response in an urban complex environment. For the city of Cologne in Germany, we aim to indicate possible ways to decrease the emergency response time during an extreme flood scenario through the development of an accessibility indicator, which consists of different components. Therefore, we will investigate the opportunities that occur, in a flood risk scenario, from the use of geographic information in different forms such as Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) and open-source data in an ArcGIS environment, to increase urban resilience through the decreasing emergency response time. We will focus on network analysis for the fire brigades (first acting emergency responders) during a flood scenario to calculate their emergency response ranges and emergency response routes through flooded road networks, for the assistance of the possibly affected hospitals, refugee homes and fire brigades, which can be flooded. At the end of the paper, we suggest that the vulnerable community of the refugees could be taken into consideration as a new source of VGI, as an additional component that would lead to the decrease in the emergency response time. The geo-located information that could be provided by the refugee community can be very useful in emergency situations, such as those examined in this article where timely information can be forwarded to the proper authorities for a more focused and timely emergency response, increasing the resilience of the urban population and their community.     

降雨诱发浅层滑坡稳定性的计算模型研究

我国是一个滑坡灾害频发的国家,众多事实表明：降雨是影响边坡稳定性,导致边坡失稳的最主要和最普遍的环境因素,是浅层滑坡的触发因素。为了更好地对降雨诱发浅层滑坡进行研究,采用非饱和土VG模型与改进的Green-Ampt入渗模型对Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型进行改进,并结合无限边坡提出了一个降雨诱发浅层滑坡的简化计算模型。与以往提出的简化计算模型相比,该模型既考虑了坡面倾斜的影响,又考虑了非饱和土的特性,并可用于两种降雨形式下的边坡浅层稳定性估算,具有更广的应用范围。通过与有限元得到的结果进行比较可得：在不同降雨条件下,该计算模型得到的各项结果与数值解是接近的,安全系数计算结果是偏于安全的,因此,可将该计算模型用于降雨诱发浅层滑坡的近似估算;该计算模型公式简单,便于计算,计算效率较高。     

基于椭球滑动体假定和三维简化JANBU法的边坡稳定分析

采用一般椭球体模拟三维土坡的滑动体,利用三维简化JANBU法计算其安全系数,该法假定各个条柱底面的滑动方向在水平面上的投影相等,借此可用一个变量来表达各个底滑面的滑动方向,简便易行。此外,综合借鉴粒子群优化算法和和声算法的优点,提出了改进的粒子群算法,并利用对2个三维土坡的最危险滑动体进行了搜索,与已有结果进行了对比分析,表明方法是可行有效的。     

Landslide susceptibility deterministic approach using geographic information systems: application to Breaza town, Romania

The study is a deterministic-based approach on landslide susceptibility. The purpose of the paper is to create quantitative susceptibility maps by joining the one-dimension infinite slope stability model with a raster-based GIS (ILWIS) and taking into account the spatial distribution of input parameters. A landslide-prone area, with relative homogeneous geology and geomorphology, located in the Subcarpathian sector of the Prahova River, Romania, was selected for the study. There are frequent problems caused by active landslides in the studied area, especially in years with heavy precipitation, often causing destruction of houses and roads situated on the slopes (1992, 1997, and 2005). Detailed surveys covering a 7-year period provided the necessary input data on slope parameters, hydrological components, and the geotechnical background. Two simulations were used: one on dry soil conditions and one on fully saturated soil conditions. A third test was based on the level of the groundwater table mapped in summer 2008. Detailed analyses were particularly focused on landslides to compare predicted results with actual results using field measurements. The model is very suitable for use in raster GIS because it can calculate slope instability on a pixel basis, each raster cell being considered individually. The drawback of the model is the highly detailed data of input parameters. Despite this disadvantage, in conclusion, the usefulness of slope stability models on a large-scale basis was emphasized under infinitely high failure plain conditions and lithological homogeneity.     

Groundwater study using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in the central highlands of Eritrea

Remote sensing, evaluation of digital elevation models (DEM), geographic information systems (GIS) and fieldwork techniques were combined to study the groundwater conditions in Eritrea. Remote sensing data were interpreted to produce lithological and lineament maps. DEM was used for lineament and geomorphologic mapping. Field studies permitted the study of structures and correlated them with lineament interpretations. Hydrogeological setting of springs and wells were investigated in the field, from well logs and pumping test data. All thematic layers were integrated and analysed in a GIS. Results show that groundwater occurrence is controlled by lithology, structures and landforms. Highest yields occur in basaltic rocks and are due to primary and secondary porosities. High yielding wells and springs are often related to large lineaments, lineament intersections and corresponding structural features. In metamorphic and igneous intrusive rocks with rugged landforms, groundwater occurs mainly in drainage channels with valley fill deposits. Zones of very good groundwater potential are characteristic for basaltic layers overlying lateritized crystalline rocks, flat topography with dense lineaments and structurally controlled drainage channels with valley fill deposits. The overall results demonstrate that the use of remote sensing and GIS provide potentially powerful tools to study groundwater resources and design a suitable exploration plan.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Groundwater study using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in the central highlands of Eritrea

Remote sensing, evaluation of digital elevation models (DEM), geographic information systems (GIS) and fieldwork techniques were combined to study the groundwater conditions in Eritrea. Remote sensing data were interpreted to produce lithological and lineament maps. DEM was used for lineament and geomorphologic mapping. Field studies permitted the study of structures and correlated them with lineament interpretations. Hydrogeological setting of springs and wells were investigated in the field, from well logs and pumping test data. All thematic layers were integrated and analysed in a GIS. Results show that groundwater occurrence is controlled by lithology, structures and landforms. Highest yields occur in basaltic rocks and are due to primary and secondary porosities. High yielding wells and springs are often related to large lineaments, lineament intersections and corresponding structural features. In metamorphic and igneous intrusive rocks with rugged landforms, groundwater occurs mainly in drainage channels with valley fill deposits. Zones of very good groundwater potential are characteristic for basaltic layers overlying lateritized crystalline rocks, flat topography with dense lineaments and structurally controlled drainage channels with valley fill deposits. The overall results demonstrate that the use of remote sensing and GIS provide potentially powerful tools to study groundwater resources and design a suitable exploration plan.The online version of the original article can be found at     

Groundwater exploration using remote sensing and geographic information systems in a semi-arid area (Southwest of Urmieh, Northwest of Iran)

Shortage of water required for drinking and agricultural uses is a subject with a vital importance in most arid and semi-arid regions. The area of this study is one of the semi-arid regions located in southwest of Urmieh lake, northwest of Iran, between N 37°00′, 37°15′ latitude and E 45°05′, 45°30′ longitude which is composed of Permian dolomitic limestone, limestone, and post-Jurassic granite with a very low primary porosity/permeability character. In order to delineate groundwater potential zones in this area, the study focused on identifying secondary porosity/permeability indicators such as lineaments, vegetation cover, lithology, drainage pattern, drainage density, etc. In this regard, a remote sensing and geographic information system-based methodology was selected. Landsat ETM, IRS (pan), SPOT data, digital elevation model, and digital image processing techniques such as filtering, false color composite, principal component analysis, band rationing and classification have been applied to reach the purposes. Information layers extracted for analysis and interpretation stage were then integrated with other data and modeled through the use of existing geographic information system (GIS) software and their related analytical functions. Finally, based on determined ground water favorability index for different sub zones, layers, weighting, and overlapping, a ground water potential index (GWPI) was defined which respectively was utilized to groundwater potential zoning and preparation of GWPI map of the region. Within the six different sub zones defined, two sub zones labeled with high and very good potential areas were highly recommended for further development and exploration purposes. Geophysical investigations in target areas confirm the labeled subzones. Based on the obtained results of the study, it can be concluded that remote sensing data are very useful tool to extract information of groundwater exploration. Also, application of geographic information systems to find target areas for groundwater exploration are effective to save time and cost.     

Catchment-wide estimate of single storm interrill soil erosion using an aggregate instability index: a model based on geographic information systems

The main objective of this paper is to estimate interrill erosion after rainfall in the basin of Mourganis river (442?km²; Kalabaka province, Trikala prefecture, Thessaly, Greece). For the estimation of the interrill erosion, the method of Valmis et al. (1988) was used, in combination with Nearing et al. (1989). Input data of the algorithm include the slope angle of the ground surface, the rainfall, the ground cover type, the height of canopy, and the instability of ground of the study area. The spatial data were processed by standard GIS software. Soil samples were collected in the field to calibrate the model. The results comprise soil erosion maps for two specific rainfall scenarios. The first rainfall scenario refers to the most extreme rainfall in this catchment that happened on the 7/21/1959 with 48?mm/h. The second scenario is closer to average as the intensity rainfall is 3.54?mm/h. The total mass of eroded material ranges from 0.048?t/ha (assuming mean rainfall intensity) up to 3.5?t/ha (for the extreme scenario). We note that the western part of the Mourgani basin exhibits higher erosion than the eastern part.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping on Panaon Island,Philippines using a geographic information system

For landslide susceptibility mapping, this study applied, verified and compared the Bayesian probability model, the weights-of-evidence to Panaon Island, Philippines, using a geographic information system. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from the interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys, and a spatial database was extracted from SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) DEM (Digital Elevation Model) imagery, aerial photograph, topographic map, and geological map. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index and stream power index of topography, were calculated from SRTM imagery. Distance from drainage was extracted from topographic database. Lithology and distance from fault were extracted and calculated from geological database. Terrain mapping unit was classified from aerial photographs. The spatial association between the factors and the landslides was calculated as the contrast values, W ⁺ and W ⁻ using the weights-of-evidence model. Tests of conditional independence were performed for the selection of the factors, allowing the large number of combinations of factors to be analyzed. For each factor rating, the contrast values, W ⁺ and W ⁻ were overlaid for landslide susceptibility mapping. The results of the analysis showed that contrast rating (78.60%) for each factor’s multiclass had better accuracy of 5.90% than combinations of factor assigned to binary class with W ⁺ and W ⁻ (72.70%).     

饱和松散堆积体快速滑动的剪胀效应机制与过程模拟

工程弃渣、地震滑坡堆积体等松散介质,在降雨条件下所形成的饱和松散堆积体具有更强的流动性,其运动速度、危害范围大大超过预期,其内在机制一直是国际学术界关注的热点问题。采用Iverson基于极限状态土力学原理构建的饱和堆积体剪胀模型,并整合到Savage-Hutter滑坡运动演进物理模型中,采用有限体积法求解滑坡运动学方程,实现了饱和松散堆积体运动演进全程模拟,最后以深圳滑坡为案例研究了滑坡运动成灾过程。结果表明:剪胀效应是导致饱和松散堆积体快速运动的主要原因,饱和松散堆积体的初始状态(孔隙比或固相体积分数)对其运动-堆积演化过程有决定性影响。     

Early warning system for shallow landslides using rainfall threshold and slope stability analysis

A combined cluster and regression analysis were performed for the first time to identify rainfall threshold that triggers landslide events in Amboori, Kerala, India. Amboori is a tropical area that is highly vulnerable to landslides. The 2, 3, and 5-day antecedent rainfall data versus daily rainfall was clustered to identify a cluster of critical events that could potentially trigger landslides. Further, the cluster of critical events was utilized for regression analysis to develop the threshold equations. The 5-day antecedent (x-variable) vs. daily rainfall (y-variable) provided the best fit to the data with a threshold equation of y = 80.7–0.1981x. The intercept of the equation indicates that if the 5-day antecedent rainfall is zero, the minimum daily rainfall needed to trigger the landslide in the Amboori region would be 80.7 mm. The negative coefficient of the antecedent rainfall indicates that when the cumulative antecedent rainfall increases, the amount of daily rainfall required to trigger monsoon landslide decreases. The coefficient value indicates that the contribution of the 5-day antecedent rainfall is ∼20% to the landslide trigger threshold. The slope stability analysis carried out for the area, using Probabilistic Infinite Slope Analysis Model (PISA-m), was utilized to identify the areas vulnerable to landslide in the region. The locations in the area where past landslides have occurred demonstrate lower Factors of Safety (FS) in the slope stability analysis. Thus, rainfall threshold analysis together with the FS values from slope stability can be suitable for developing a simple, cost-effective, and comprehensive early-warning system for shallow landslides in Amboori and similar regions.     

Three-dimensional in situ stress evaluation using a new under-coring technique: the Tseng-Wen Reservoir Transbasin water tunnel

The Tseng-Wen Reservoir Transbasin water tunnel has broken the historical record of the maximum overburden of a tunnel within Taiwan. The three-dimensional in situ stresses at the tunnel were evaluated using acoustic emission (AE) and deformation rate analysis (DRA) with an under-coring technique. This is the first time that the AE and DRA have been used in evaluating an in situ stress in Taiwan. As cores drilled in different directions are required for the three-dimensional stress evaluation, but the in situ borehole drilling is usually limited to the vertical direction, small samples 2.28 cm in diameter and 4.56 cm in length were under-cored from the borehole cores in six directions to evaluate the in situ stresses. Cyclic uniaxial compressive loadings were artificially applied to the Changchikeng sandstones under-cored from the outcrops. The experimental results validate the definitiveness of using under-cored samples at different pre-stresses with AE and DRA. Then, cores taken from the Tseng-Wen Reservoir Transbasin water tunnel site at a great depth of 416–739 m underground were under-cored. The experimental results indicate that the major principle in situ stress is from 30.8 to 39 MPa and is in the directions of SE–NW and SW–NE at different depths.