On the Relationship of the 27-day Variations of the Solar Wind Velocity and Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity in Minimum Epoch of Solar Activity

We study the relationship of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity with similar variations of the solar wind velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field based on observational data for the Bartels rotation period # 2379 of 23 November 2007 – 19 December 2007. We develop a three-dimensional (3-D) model of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity based on the heliolongitudinally dependent solar wind velocity. A consistent, divergence-free interplanetary magnetic field is derived by solving Maxwell’s equations with a heliolongitudinally dependent 27-day variation of the solar wind velocity reproducing in situ observations. We consider two types of 3-D models of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity, i) with a plane heliospheric neutral sheet, and ii) with the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field. The theoretical calculations show that the sector structure does not significantly influence the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity, as had been shown before, based on observational data. Furthermore, good agreement is found between the time profiles of the theoretically expected and experimentally obtained first harmonic waves of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity (with a correlation coefficient of 0.98±0.02). The expected 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity is inversely correlated with the modulation parameter ζ (with a correlation coefficient of −0.91±0.05), which is proportional to the product of the solar wind velocity V and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field B (ζ∼VB). The high anticorrelation between these quantities indicates that the predicted 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity mainly is caused by this basic modulation effect.     

Transient perturbations and their effects in the heliosphere, the geo-magnetosphere, and the Earth’s atmosphere: Space weather perspective

We discuss the effects of certain dynamic features of space environment in the heliosphere, the geo-magnetosphere, and the earth’s atmosphere. In particular, transient perturbations in solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field, and energetic charged particle (cosmic ray) fluxes near 1 AU in the heliosphere have been discussed. Transient variations in magnetic activity in geo-magnetosphere and solar modulation effects in the heliosphere have also been studied. Emphasis is on certain features of transient perturbations related to space weather effects. Relationships between geomagnetic storms and transient modulations in cosmic ray intensity (Forbush decreases), especially those caused by shock-associated interplanetary disturbances, have been studied in detail. We have analysed the cosmic ray, geomagnetic and interplanetary plasma/field data to understand the physical mechanisms of two phenomena namely, Forbush decrease and geomagnetic storms, and to search for precursors to Forbush decrease (and geomagnetic storms) that can be used as a signature to forecast space weather. It is shown that the use of cosmic ray records has practical application for space weather predictions. Enhanced diurnal anisotropy and intensity deficit of cosmic rays have been identified as precursors to Forbush decreases in cosmic ray intensity. It is found that precursor to smaller (less than 5%) amplitude Forbush decrease due to weaker interplanetary shock is enhanced diurnal anisotropy. However, larger amplitude (greater than 5%) Forbush decrease due to stronger interplanetary shock shows loss cone type intensity deficit as precursor in ground based intensity record. These precursors can be used as inputs for space weather forecast.     

Interplanetary magnetic clouds and cosmic ray modulation

We studied the cosmic ray intensity variation due to interplanetary magnetic clouds during an unusual class of low amplitude anisotropic wave train events. The low amplitude anisotropic wave train events in cosmic ray intensity have been identified using the data of ground based Deep River neutron monitor and studied during the period 1981–1994. Even though the occurrence of low amplitude anisotropic wave trains does not depend on the onset of interplanetary magnetic clouds, but the possibility of occurrence of these events cannot be overlooked during the periods of the interplanetary magnetic cloud events. It is observed that the solar wind velocity remains higher (> 300) than normal and the interplanetary magnetic field B remains lower than normal on the onset of the interplanetary magnetic cloud during the passage of low amplitude wave trains. It is also noted that the proton density remains significantly low during high solar wind velocity, which is expected. The north south component of interplanetary magnetic field Bz turns southward to one day before the arrival of cloud and remains in the southward direction after the arrival of a cloud. During these events the cosmic ray intensity is found to increase with increase of solar wind velocity. The superposed epoch analysis of cosmic ray intensity for these events during the onset of interplanetary magnetic clouds reveals that the decrease in cosmic ray intensity starts not at the onset of the cloud but after a few days. The cosmic ray intensity increases on arrival of the magnetic cloud and decreases gradually after the passage of the magnetic cloud.     

Transient phenomena in cosmic ray intensity during extreme events

In the present work an analysis has been made of the extreme events occurring during July 2005. Specifically, a rather intense Forbush decrease was observed at different neutron monitors all over the world during 16 July 2005. An effort has been made to study the effect of this unusual event on cosmic ray intensity as well as various solar and interplanetary plasma parameters. It is noteworthy that during 11 to 18 July 2005 the solar activity ranged from low to very active. Especially low levels occurred on 11, 15, and 17 July whereas high levels took place on 14 and 16 July 2005. The Sun is observed to be active during 11 to 18 July 2005, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity lies within 15 nT, and solar wind velocity was limited to ∼500 kms-1. The geomagnetic activity during this period remains very quiet, the Kp index did not exceed 5, the disturbance storm time Dst index remains ∼-70 nT and no sudden storm commencement has been detected during this period. It is noted that for the majority of the hours, the north/south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remains negative, and the cosmic ray intensity increases and shows good/high correlation with Bz, as the polarity of Bz tends to shift from negative to positive values, the intensity decreases and shows good/high anti-correlation with Bz. The cosmic ray intensity tends to decrease with increase of interplanetary magnetic field strength (B) and shows anti-correlation for the majority of the days. Published in Astrofizika, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 255–265 (May 2008).     

Solar magnetic cycle dependence in corotating modulation of galactic cosmic rays

We study the temporal evolution of cosmic ray intensity during ～27-day Carrington rotation periods applying the method of superposed epoch analysis. We discuss about the average oscillations in the galactic cosmic ray intensity, as observed by ground based neutron monitors, during the course of Carrington rotation in low solar activity conditions and in different polarity states of the heliosphere (A<0 and A>0). During minimum and decreasing phases in low solar activity conditions, we compare the oscillation in one polarity state with that observed in other polarity state in similar phases of solar activity. We find difference in the evolution and amplitude of ～27-day variation during A<0 and A>0 epoch. We also compare the average variations in cosmic ray intensity with the simultaneous variations of solar wind parameters such as solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field strength. From the correlation analysis between the cosmic ray intensity and the solar wind speed during the course of Carrington rotation, we find that the correlation is stronger for A>0 than A<0.     

Cosmic Ray Nonlinear Processes in Space Plasma: Applications to the Dynamic Heliosphere

Influence of cosmic ray pressure and kinetic stream instability on space plasma dynamics and magnetic structure are considered. It is shown that in the outer Heliosphere are important dynamics effects of galactic cosmic ray pressure on solar wind and interplanetary shock wave propagation as well as on the formation of terminal shock wave of the Heliosphere and subsonic region between Heliosphere and interstellar medium. Kinetic stream instability effects are important on distances more than 40–60 AU from the Sun: formation of great anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays in about spiral interplanetary magnetic field leads to the Alfven turbulence generation by non isotropic cosmic ray fluxes. Generated Alfven turbulence influences on cosmic ray propagation, increases the cosmic ray modulation, decreases the cosmic ray anisotropy and increases the cosmic ray pressure gradient in the outer Heliosphere (the later is also important for terminal shock wave formation). This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar Modulation of Cosmic Rays during the Declining and Minimum Phases of Solar Cycle 23: Comparison with Past Three Solar Cycles

We study solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the deep solar minimum, including the declining phase, of solar cycle 23 and compare the results of this unusual period with the results obtained during similar phases of the previous solar cycles 20, 21, and 22. These periods consist of two epochs each of negative and positive polarities of the heliospheric magnetic field from the north polar region of the Sun. In addition to cosmic-ray data, we utilize simultaneous solar and interplanetary plasma/field data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We study the relation between simultaneous variations in cosmic ray intensity and solar/interplanetary parameters during the declining and the minimum phases of cycle 23. We compare these relations with those obtained for the same phases in the three previous solar cycles. We observe certain peculiar features in cosmic ray modulation during the minimum of solar cycle 23 including the record high GCR intensity. We find, during this unusual minimum, that the correlation of GCR intensity is poor with sunspot number (correlation coefficient R=?0.41), better with interplanetary magnetic field (R=?0.66), still better with solar wind velocity (R=?0.80) and much better with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet (R=?0.92). In our view, it is not the diffusion or the drift alone, but the solar wind convection that is the most likely additional effect responsible for the record high GCR intensity observed during the deep minimum of solar cycle 23.     

Cycling Changes in the Amplitudes of the 27-Day Variation of the Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity

We study quasi-periodical changes in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, and the parameters of solar wind and solar activity. We have recently found quasi-periodicity of three to four Carrington rotation periods (3?–?4 CRP) in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity (Gil and Alania in J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 73, 294, 2011). A similar recurrence is recognized in parameters of solar activity (sunspot number, solar radio flux) and solar wind (components of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind velocity). We believe that the 3?–?4 CRP periodicity, among other periodicities, observed in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity is caused by a specific cycling structure of the Sun’s magnetic field, which may originate from the turbulent nature of the solar dynamo.     

Field-Line Draping Around ICMES

Magnetic field orientations in the sheaths of ten fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that cover the solar longitude range roughly from 20° East to 33° West (as determined from the associated flare or filament disruption) are overlain on the MHD-computed magnetic field pattern showing draping in Earth’s magnetosheath. The general draping pattern is evident in the ICME sheath orientations including, most importantly, the east flank where draping causes the greatest distortion of the magnetic field away from the general Parker spiral. Deviations from the general draping pattern are also evident which, we suggest, result from the history of accretion of the inhomogeneous interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) into the ICME sheath over a long stretch of solar wind before arriving at one AU. The profiles of magnetic field intensity between the ICME shock and the nose of the ICME deviate significantly from the corresponding profile in Earth’s magnetosheath. The ICME samples are much more irregular and show no general tendency to increase toward the stagnation point. We suggest that again this difference reflects the history of IMF accretion by the ICME sheath. The long stretch of accreted inhomogeneous field (a significant fraction of one AU) can account for the irregularity, and the weakness of the field close to the body possibly reflects a weaker ICME shock closer to the Sun.     

Sharp Changes of Solar Wind Ion Flux and Density Within and Outside Current Sheets

Analysis of the Interball-1 spacecraft data (1995 – 2000) has shown that the solar wind ion flux sometimes increases or decreases abruptly by more than 20% over a time period of several seconds or minutes. Typically, the amplitude of such sharp changes in the solar wind ion flux (SCIFs) is larger than 0.5×10⁸ cm⁻² s⁻¹. These sudden changes of the ion flux were also observed by the Solar Wind Experiment (SWE), on board the Wind spacecraft, as the solar wind density increases and decreases with negligible changes in the solar wind velocity. SCIFs occur irregularly at 1 AU, when plasma flows with specific properties come to the Earth’s orbit. SCIFs are usually observed in slow, turbulent solar wind with increased density and interplanetary magnetic field strength. The number of times SCIFs occur during a day is simulated using the solar wind density, magnetic field, and their standard deviations as input parameters for a period of five years. A correlation coefficient of ∼0.7 is obtained between the modelled and the experimental data. It is found that SCIFs are not associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), corotating interaction regions (CIRs), or interplanetary shocks; however, 85% of the sector boundaries are surrounded by SCIFs. The properties of the solar wind plasma for days with five or more SCIF observations are the same as those of the solar wind plasma at the sector boundaries. One possible explanation for the occurrence of SCIFs (near sector boundaries) is magnetic reconnection at the heliospheric current sheet or local current sheets. Other probable causes of SCIFs (inside sectors) are turbulent processes in the slow solar wind and at the crossings of flux tubes.     

Galactic Cosmic Ray Modulation and the Last Solar Minimum

In this work the galactic cosmic ray modulation in relation to solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the years 1996??C?2010 covering solar cycle 23 and the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is studied. A new perspective of this contribution is that cosmic ray data with a rigidity of 10 GV at the top of the atmosphere obtained from many ground-based neutron monitors were used. The proposed empirical relation gave much better results than those in previous works concerning the hysteresis effect. The proposed models obtained from a combination of solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters give a standard deviation <?10?% for all the cases. The correlation coefficient between the cosmic ray variations of 10?GV and the sunspot number reached a value of r=?0.89 with a time lag of 13.6±0.4 months. The best reproduction of the cosmic ray intensity is obtained by taking into account solar and interplanetary indices such as sunspot number, interplanetary magnetic field, CME index, and heliospheric current sheet tilt. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values is about 7.15?% for all of solar cycle 23; it also works very well during the different phases of the cycle. Moreover, the use of the cosmic ray intensity of 10?GV during the long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 is of special interest and is discussed in terms of cosmic ray intensity modulation.     

Influence of solar heliospheric parameters on cosmic rays anisotropy

In the present work the cosmic ray data of three different neutron monitoring stations, Deep River, Inuvik, and Tokyo, located at different geomagnetic cutoff rigidities and altitudes have been harmonically analyzed for the period 1980–95 for a comparative study of diurnal semi-diurnal and tri-diurnal anisotropies in cosmic ray intensity in connection with the change in interplanetary magnetic field Bz component and solar wind velocity on 60 quietest days. It is observed that the amplitudes of all the three harmonics increase during the period 1982–84 at all the stations during the high speed solar wind stream epoch and remain low during the declining phase of the stream. The amplitudes of the three harmonics have no obvious characteristics associated with the time variation of magnitude of the Bz component. The phases of all the three harmonics have no time variation characteristics associated with solar wind velocity and Bz. Published in Astrofizika, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 651–664 (August 2006).     

High-speed solar wind streams of two different origins and cosmic-ray variations during 1980–1986

There are two types of high-speed solar wind streams classified in two categories:coronal-hole and solar-flare-generated streams. These two types are classified in two categories considering the bulk speed, proton density, temperature and magnetic field in the interplanetary medium. Their effects on cosmic ray intensity have been studied on a short-term basis during 1980–1986. Daily means of one middle and one low-latitude set of neutron monitor data have been taken for analysis using the Chree method of superposed epochs. The investigation indicates that the solar-flare-generated high-speed solar wind streams are more effective in producing cosmic ray decreases than are the coronal-hole generated streams.     

SCR Distribution Function in the Radial IMF Approximation

The transport of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium is considered in terms of the kinetic equation describing the energetic particle scattering by magnetic irregularities and their focusing by the regular interplanetary magnetic field. The analytical expression for solar cosmic ray distribution function in the approximation of radial regular magnetic field is obtained and the evolution of energetic particle angular distribution is analyzed. The obtained results can be used for the analysis of ground-level enhancements of cosmic ray intensity.     

Analysis of plasma and field conditions during some intensely geo-effective transient solar/interplanetary disturbances of solar cycle 23

The problem of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling is investigated for intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100nT) that occurred during solar cycle 23. For this purpose interplanetary plasma and field data during some intensely geo-effective transient solar/interplanetary disturbances have been analysed. A geomagnetic index that represents the intensity of planetary magnetic activity at subauroral latitude and the other that measures the ring current magnetic field, together with solar plasma and field parameters (V, B, Bz, σB, N, and T) and their various derivatives (BV,-BVz, BV², -BzV², B²V, Bz²V, NV²) have been analysed in an attempt to study mechanism and the cause of geo-effectiveness of interplanetary manifestations of transient solar events. Several functions of solar wind plasma and field parameters are tested for their ability to predict the magnitude of geomagnetic storm.     

Solar modulation of galactic cosmic-ray intensity as seen by neutron monitors during 1990–1999 – I. Rigidity Dependence and Correlations with Solar Activity Parameters

We analyze the evolution of cosmic ray intensity detected by six neutron monitors located at high altitude from 1990 to 1999, that includes most of solar cycle 22 and the start of cycle 23. This set of neutron monitors covers a wide range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. We discuss the most significant characteristics of the cosmic ray modulation during the period as: the extraordinary decreases produced by the events of the first half of 1991, the significant two step evolution of the recovery phase of solar cycle 22 and the start of cycle 23. We also determine the rigidity dependence of the different phases of the modulation cycle. Cosmic ray intensity correlations with several solar activity parameters as sunspots, microwave flux at 10.7 cm and solar flares and with the intensity of the interplanetary magnetic field are studied.     

The 27-Day Cosmic Ray Intensity Variations During Solar Minimum 23/24

We have studied the 27-day variations and their harmonics in Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, solar wind velocity, and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components during the recent prolonged solar minimum 23/24. The time evolution of the quasi-periodicity in these parameters connected with the Sun’s rotation reveals that the synodic period of these variations is ≈?26?–?27 days and is stable. This means that the changes in the solar wind speed and the IMF are related to the Sun’s near-equatorial regions in considering the differential rotation of the Sun. However, the solar wind parameters observed near the Earth’s orbit provide only the conditions in the limited local vicinity of the equatorial region in the heliosphere (within ±?7^° in latitude). We also demonstrate that the observed period of the GCR intensity connected with the Sun’s rotation increased up to ≈?33?–?36 days in 2009. This means that the process that drives the 27-day GCR intensity variations takes place not only in the limited local surroundings of the equatorial region but in the global 3-D space of the heliosphere, covering also higher latitude regions. A relatively long period (≈?34 days) found for 2009 in the GCR intensity gives possible evidence of the onset of cycle 24 due to active regions at higher latitudes and rotating slowly because of the Sun’s differential rotation. We also discuss the effect of differential rotation on the theoretical model of the 27-day GCR intensity variations.     

Forbush Decreases Associated with Western Solar Sources and Geomagnetic Storms: A Study on Precursors

As suggested in many studies the pre-increases or pre-decreases of the cosmic ray intensity (known as precursors), which usually precede a Forbush decrease, could serve as a useful tool for studying space weather effects. The events in this study were chosen based on two criteria. Firstly, the heliolongitude of the solar flare associated with each cosmic ray intensity decrease was in the 50°?–70°W sector and, secondly, the values of the geomagnetic activity index, Kp _max, were ≥?5. Twenty five events were selected from 1967 to 2006. We have used data on solar flares, solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst), and interplanetary magnetic field in our detailed analysis. The asymptotic longitudinal cosmic ray distribution diagrams were plotted using the “Ring of Stations” method for all the events. The results reveal clear signs of precursors in 60 % of selected events.     

On solar wind interaction with the earth's magnetosphere

Hydrodynamic and electrodynamic problems of solar wind interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere on the day-side are investigated.The initial fact, well established, is that the density of the magnetic field energy in the solar wind is rather small. Magnetic field intensity and orientation are shown to determine the character of the solar wind flow around the magnetosphere. For mean parameters of the wind, if the tangential component of the magnetic field is more or equal 5γ, the flow in the magneto-sheath will be laminar. For other cases the flow is of a turbulent type.For turbulent flow, typical plasma parameters are estimated: mean free path, internal scale of inhomogeneities and dissipated energy. The results obtained are compared with experimental data.For the case of laminar flow, special attention is paid to the situation when magnetic fields of the solar wind and Earth are antiparallel. It is suggested, on the basis of solid arguments, that the southward interplanetary field diffuses from the magnetosheath into the Earth's magnetosphere. These ideas are used for the estimation of the distance to the magnetopause subsolar point. A detailed comparison with results of observation is made. The coincidence is satisfactory. Theoretical investigation has been made to a great extent for thin magnetopause with thickness δ ～ R_He-gyroradius of an electron.It is shown that during magnetospheric substorms relaxation oscillations with the period τ = 100–300 sec must appear. A theorem is proved about the appearance of a westward electrical field during the substorm development, when the magnetosphere's day-side boundary moves Earthward and about the recovery phase, when the magnetopause motion is away from the Earth, when there is an eastward electrical field.In the Appendix, plasma wave exitation in the magnetopause is considered and conductivity magnitudes are calculated, including the reduction due to the scattering by plasma turbulence.     

The role of fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field in determining the magnitude of substorm activity

When hourly averages of interplanetary magnetic-field parameters are compared to the AE index, it is found that, although the time-integral of the southward component is important in determining whether there will be a substorm, the magnitude of storm activity as measured by AE is related to the level of the variance of the field. For a given value of the time-integral of the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field, the AE index increases as the variance increases. For periods immediately following storm sudden commencements, this simple relationship apparently breaks down indicating that a different triggering process or storm-generation mechanism may be at work. These observations imply that although it is impossible to differentiate between substorms at the Earth's surface, it may be possible to differentiate between the conditions in the solar wind that lead to a certain magnitude of magnetic activity.