Recent advancements in dynamical tropical cyclone track predictions

Summary Considerable advancements have recently been made in understanding tropical cyclone motion. Based on these new understandings, the requirements for accurate tropical cyclone motion prediction with dynamical models can be specified. Four issues related to dynamical track prediction are the initial specifications of the environmental wind field, the symmetric vortex and the asymmetric vortex structure, as well as the adequacy of the models to predict the time evolution of each of these three components of the total wind field. Recently developed barotropic and limited-region or global baroclinic models are examined in terms of these issues. The capability of the Hurricane Research Division barotropic model to provide skillful track forecasts to 48 h retrospectively substantiates that tropical cyclones motion is governed by barotropic dynamics to first order. Limited-region baroclinic models are demonstrated to have many of the numerical characteristics, physical process representations, and initial condition specifications that will be required to properly predict tropical cyclone tracks. In particular, the semioperational Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model most closely addresses all of the above issues, and has demonstrated potential for markedly improved tracks for a small sample of cases. Finally, the inclusion of some aspects of tropical cyclone structure in the initial conditions of global baroclinic models has improved their track predictions. Thus, the outlook is for a significant improvement in dynamical track predictions.With 6 Figures     

Non-Linear Numerical Model Predictions of Flow Over an Isolated Hill of Moderate Slope

Non-linear model simulations of atmospheric boundary-layer flow over the hill called Blashaval have been compared with observations and linear model predictions. Previous studies have shown that linear models can give good predictions of wind speed at the summit and on the upwind slopes of Blashaval. The non-linear model provided wind speed predictions of similar accuracy when compared with the mean observed values at these locations.The published experimental data showed that on the lee-slope the wind speeds at 8m were reduced to approximately 10% of their upstream value at the same height. This was associated with an 180° change in wind direction compared with the upstream flow, suggesting that flow separation had occurred. The non-linear model predictions of lee-slope wind speed, when used with high-resolution topography data, were significantly better than linear model predictions. However, the non-linear model predicted lee-slope wind speeds that were still stronger than observed. The non-linear model simulated flow separation more readily with a 1 1/2-order turbulence closure than with a first-order, mixing-length closure. The configuration of the non-linear model that gave best agreement with observations predicted an 8m lee-slope wind speed that was around 50% of the upstream value.     

城市环境对重气扩散的影响及其验证

开发了适合城市环境下的应急重气扩散模型——SLAB_URBAN模型,该模型能够对城市环境下重气的传输扩散过程进行模拟。模型的原理基于重气扩散浅层理论,采用了新的城市边界层和扩散参数的参数化方案。该方案考虑了城市冠层内特有的风和湍流扩散的特征,能够体现城市边界层和湍流对重气扩散的影响。对美国盐湖城Urban2000的城市扩散试验进行模拟,主要验证下风方向观测弧所观测到的气体最大小时平均浓度与源释放速率的比值。结果表明,模型能够比较好地模拟出下风方向上浓度的分布特征。另外,与国外同类城市扩散模型的比较来看,SLAB_URBAN模型的模拟能力居于前列。     

Implementation of a Stable PBL Turbulence Parameterization for the Mesoscale Model MM5: Nocturnal Flow in Complex Terrain

The difficulties associated with the parameterization of turbulence in the stable nocturnal planetary boundary layer (PBL) have been a great challenge for the nighttime predictions from mesoscale meteorological models such as MM5. As such, there is a general consensus on the need for better stable boundary-layer parameterizations. To this end, two new turbulence parameterizations based on the measurements of the Vertical Transport and Mixing (VTMX) field campaign were implemented and evaluated in MM5. A unique aspect of this parameterization is the use of a stability-dependent turbulent Prandtl number that allows momentum to be transported by the internal waves, while heat diffusion is impeded by the stratification. This improvement alleviates the problem of over-prediction of heat diffusion under stable conditions, which is a characteristic of conventional atmospheric boundary-layer schemes, such as the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) and Blackadar schemes employed in MM5. The predictions made with the new PBL scheme for the complex terrain airshed of Salt Lake City were compared with those made with a default scheme of MM5, and with observations made during the VTMX campaign. The new schemes showed an improvement in predictions, particularly for the nocturnal near-surface temperature. Surface wind predictions also improved slightly, but not to the extent of temperature predictions. The default MRF scheme showed a significantly higher surface temperature than observed, which could be attributed to the enhanced vertical heat exchange brought about by its turbulence parameterization. The modified parameterizations reduced the surface sensible heat flux, thus enhancing the strength of the near-surface inversion and lowering the temperature towards the observed values.     

数值预报产品对“5·5"特大沙尘暴的释用能力分析

针对“５·５”特大沙尘暴致灾天气过程，综合检验分析我国Ｔ４２、有限区（ＬＡＦＳ）和欧洲中期数值预报中心（ＥＣＭＷＦ）数值预报模式的性能及其产品的预报能力。结果表明，各家数值预报模式对该过程的５００ｈＰａ形势预报是成功的，可为中、短期预报提供预报决策信息。Ｔ４２和ＬＡＦＳ对中、高层西风的预报质量较高，亦有预报参考意义，其它的物理参数的预报质量有待进一步改进优化。     

A simple unified theory for flow in the canopy and roughness sublayer

The mean flow profile within and above a tall canopy is well known to violate the standard boundary-layer flux–gradient relationships. Here we present a theory for the flow profile that is comprised of a canopy model coupled to a modified surface-layer model. The coupling between the two components and the modifications to the surface-layer profiles are formulated through the mixing layer analogy for the flow at a canopy top. This analogy provides an additional length scale—the vorticity thickness—upon which the flow just above the canopy, within the so-called roughness sublayer, depends. A natural form for the vertical profiles within the roughness sublayer follows that overcomes problems with many earlier forms in the literature. Predictions of the mean flow profiles are shown to match observations over a range of canopy types and stabilities. The unified theory predicts that key parameters, such as the displacement height and roughness length, have a significant dependence on the boundary-layer stability. Assuming one of these parameters a priori leads to the incorrect variation with stability of the others and incorrect predictions of the mean wind speed profile. The roughness sublayer has a greater impact on the mean wind speed in stable than unstable conditions. The presence of a roughness sublayer also allows the surface to exert a greater drag on the boundary layer for an equivalent value of the near-surface wind speed than would otherwise occur. This characteristic would alter predictions of the evolution of the boundary layer and surface states if included within numerical weather prediction models.     

Weibull-k Revisited: “Tall” Profiles and Height Variation of Wind Statistics

The Weibull distribution is commonly used to describe climatological wind-speed distributions in the atmospheric boundary layer. While vertical profiles of mean wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer have received significant attention, the variation of the shape of the wind distribution with height is less understood. Previously we derived a probabilistic model based on similarity theory for calculating the effects of stability and planetary boundary-layer depth upon long-term mean wind profiles. However, some applications (e.g. wind energy estimation) require the Weibull shape parameter (k), as well as mean wind speed. Towards the aim of improving predictions of the Weibull- \(k\) profile, we develop expressions for the profile of long-term variance of wind speed, including a method extending our probabilistic wind-profile theory; together these two profiles lead to a profile of Weibull-shape parameter. Further, an alternate model for the vertical profile of Weibull shape parameter is made, improving upon a basis set forth by Wieringa (Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 1989, Vol. 47, 85–110), and connecting with a newly-corrected corollary of the perturbed geostrophic-drag theory of Troen and Petersen (European Wind Atlas, 1989, Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde). Comparing the models for Weibull-k profiles, a new interpretation and explanation is given for the vertical variation of the shape of wind-speed distributions. Results of the modelling are shown for a number of sites, with a discussion of the models’ efficacy and applicability. The latter includes a comparative evaluation of Wieringa-type empirical models and perturbed-geostrophic forms with regard to surface-layer behaviour, as well as for heights where climatological wind-speed variability is not dominated by surface effects.     

Short-term prediction of local wind conditions

Using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models it has been shown that they, combined with models (either physical or statistical) taking local effects into account, can be used to predict the wind locally better than the models commonly used today (as eg persistence). By local is meant at one distinct spot, as eg the location of a meteorological mast. The physical model of local effects takes the following into account: shelter from near-by obstacles, the effect of roughness changes and the effect of the local orography. The large-scale flow is linked to the surface flow by the geostrophic drag law, and the logarithmic wind profile. The predictions are made up to 36 hours ahead. The model is tested on data from 50 meteorological stations scattered all over Europe.     

两年来北京气象中心业务数值预报的进展

本文回顾了两年来北京气象中心业务数值预报的进展。对效果有明显改进的几个方面作了详细叙述。统计检验结果表明短期数值预报业务有一定改进,但与世界先进国家预报水平相比仍存在相当的差距。     

Simulation of three-dimensional wind flow over complex terrain in the atmospheric boundary layer

A three-dimensional model for wind prediction over rough terrain has been developed for practical use. It is a compromise between hydrodynamic and objective wind models. The proposed model includes: (1) a statistical model to predict the wind velocity and potential temperature at anemometer height at observing stations, (2) the drainage wind model expressed by Prandtl's analytic solution for the slope wind, (3) the Businger-Dyer surface-layer formulation which considers the surface energy budget and (4) the model for three-dimensional boundary-layer solutions to the stationary flow. In this model, mass consistency is guaranteed by using flow fields that satisfy the continuity equation. Model predictions show good agreement with the observations.     

A Comparative Study of Stationary and Non-stationary Wind Models Using Field Measurements

We present a comparative study of the conventional stationary wind speed model and a newly proposed non-stationary wind speed model using field measurements. The concept of, and the differences between, the two wind models are briefly reviewed. Wind data recorded by a field measurement system for wind turbulence parameters (FMS-WTP) of 1-year duration are analyzed using the two wind models. Comparisons were made between the wind characteristics obtained from the two models, including hourly mean wind speed, turbulence intensity, the wind spectrum, integral length scale, root coherence function and probability density function. The effects of wind types (monsoon or typhoon), statistical properties (stationary or non-stationary), and surface roughness (open-sea fetch or overland fetch) on wind characteristics are discussed. The comparative study demonstrates that the non-stationary wind model appears to be more appropriate than the conventional stationary wind speed model for characterizing turbulent winds of one-hour duration over complex terrain.     

Footprint Analysis: A Closed Analytical Solution Based On Height-Dependent Profiles Of Wind Speed And Eddy Viscosity

Based on the theoretical background of existing models for the crosswind-integrated footprint, a new model is presented, which, in contrast to the existing models, describes the normalized footprint by a closed analytical formula. This was made possible by using well-known power profiles for wind speed and eddy viscosity instead of Monin–Obukhov based profiles at a certain stage of model development. However, the major difference between the new model and the existing models is that the so-called shape parameter of vertical plume dispersion, a function of upwind distance in the existing models, is set constant in the new model in order to circumvent a formal inconsistency found in the derivation of the existing models. Due to this inconsistency, the existing models do not generally satisfy the fundamental condition that the cumulative normalized footprint must approach unity for the upwind distance tending towards infinity.     

Performance of GCMs for seasonal prediction over India��a case study for 2009 monsoon

The 2009 drought in India was one of the major droughts that the country faced in the last 100?years. This study describes the anomalous features of 2009 summer monsoon and examines real-time seasonal predictions made using six general circulation models (GCMs). El Ni?o conditions evolved in the Pacific Ocean, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean were warmer than normal during monsoon 2009. The observed circulation patterns indicate a weaker monsoon in that year over India with weaker than normal convection over the Bay of Bengal and Indian landmass. Skill of the GCMs during hindcast period shows that neither these models simulate the observed interannual variability nor their multi-model ensemble (MME) significantly improves the skill of monsoon rainfall predictions. Except for one model used in this study, the real-time predictions with longer lead (2- and 1-month lead) made for the 2009 monsoon season did not provide any indication of a highly anomalous monsoon. However, with less lead time (zero lead), most of the models as well as the MME had provided predictions of below normal rainfall for that monsoon season. This study indicates that the models could not predict the 2009 drought over India due to the use of less warm SST anomalies over the Pacific in the longer lead runs. Hence, it is proposed that the uncertainties in SST predictions (the lower boundary condition) have to be represented in the model predictions of summer monsoon rainfall over India.     

WAFS产品中GRIB资料中国区产品评估

为了给使用WAFS产品的用户提供量化参考依据，选取WAFS产品中常用区域和层次的GRIB数据，利用由国家气象中心提供的风、温客观分析网格点资料，与WAFS中同时刻的预报场产品（风、温网格点资料），用均方根误差进行数字化形式分析比较。结果表明：WAFS提供的风、温预报，通常是短时效的风、温预报比长时效的风、温预报更接近客观分析场；低层的预报比高层的预报更接近客观分析场；风的预报以v矢量的预报优于u矢量的预报；风的误差主要来源于u矢量的误差。     

AN AIR POLLUTION PREDICTION TECHNIQUE FOR URBAN DISTRICTS BASED ON MESO-SCALE NUMERICAL MODEL

1 INTRODUCTION Since the 1930’s, urban air pollution has caused increasing concerns across the world[1]. Various pollution prediction techniques have been put into use in the 1970’s and significant results have been achieved[2]. Air quality prediction has been operational over recent years in many parts of China owing to cooperation between meteorological and environmental protection departments[3 – 9]. The prediction is conducted via either numerical model, potential or stochastic app…     

新能源──风能的计算研究

风速是风能计算中十分重要的气象因子，它是一种随机变量。能反映各地区风速特点的一个重要形式是风速分布模型，该文提出一种通用性强的新的风速分布模型，它随模式参数的变动而改变模型结构，以适应各地区风速分布特征，具有普遍实用意义。     

Modelling Near-Surface Low Winds over Land under Stable Conditions: Sensitivity Tests,Flux-Gradient Relationships,and Stability Parameters

Low or weak wind-speed conditions, roughly defined as the periods when the mean wind speed at 10 m above the ground is 2 ms⁻¹ or less, are of considerable practical interest. However, they are not readily amenable to treatment within prognostic meteorological models and, consequently, difficult to predict, especially when the ambient stability is strong. In this paper, we apply an E − ε prognostic meteorological model to simulate near-surface meteorology and, focusing on low wind speeds, compare the predictions with measurements from two independent datasets. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the possible reasons for the relatively inferior model performance for low winds when the atmosphere is stably stratified. A comprehensive data analysis is carried out to study low wind stable conditions, concentrating on the validity of various forms of flux–gradient relationships for momentum and heat within the framework of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, which models employ for calculating surface fluxes. The observed behaviour of various stability parameters, such as the Richardson number, is investigated. The results point to inadequacies of the current flux–gradient relationships, especially regarding momentum, under strongly stable conditions as being a dominant reason for the poor low wind predictions. The modelling issues identified are not just restricted to the present model, but are general in nature. The use of an alternative stability function for momentum under strongly stable conditions is explored. It results in improved model performance for low winds; however, further research is needed to better understand strongly stable flows in the lower atmosphere and to develop methods that can translate that understanding to operational meteorological modelling.     

近50年中国风速变化多气候模式模拟检验

近年来,随着气候模式研究的快速发展,全球气候模式在模拟20世纪气候和气候变化特征,尤其是在模拟温度、降水等要素特征和变化及其人类活动对这些要素的影响等方面取得了丰硕的成果.然而,全球气候模式对近地层风速的模拟情况如何,目前仍缺少分析和检验.本文利用中国区域近地层风速观测资料,检验评估了参与IPCC AR4"20世纪气候耦合模式模拟"(20C3M)的19个伞球气候模式和国家气候中心新一代伞球气候模式(BCC_CSM1.0.1)模拟的1956-1999年中国近地层(10m)风速及其变化的模拟能力.研究发现,20个伞球气候模式基本上都能模拟出中国多年年(或季)平均风速分布状况,但模式模拟的平均风速一般小于观测值,尤以观测风速较大的北部和西北部地区模拟值偏小显著.气候模式模拟秋冬季风速分布的能力强于模拟夏春季的能力.模式基本上能模拟出冬、春季平均风速大于夏、秋季平均风速,但是模拟不出春、冬、夏、秋季平均风速依次减小的季节变化特征.模式及模式集成难以模拟出观测到的近50年中国年(或季)平均风速明显减小的变化趋势,少数模式能模拟出年(或季)平均风速略呈减小的变化趋势,但与观测值比相差约一个量级.模式对北部和西南部地区平均风速的变化模拟效果较好,而模式难以模拟东南-南部地区风速变化特征.     

基于机器学习的复杂地形下短期数值天气预报误差分析与订正

初步研发了一套基于机器学习方法XGBoost且考虑地形特征影响的数值预报多模式集成技术,并与传统的等权重平均和线性回归方法的集成效果进行了对比分析。利用北京地区快速更新循环数值预报系统每天8次循环预报给出的近地面2 m温度、2 m相对湿度、10 m风速、10 m风向数据产品,分别基于机器学习方法XGBoost、等权重平均方法、线性回归方法构建了3种体现地形因子影响的多模式预报时间滞后集成模型。试验对比分析了暖季、冷季每日不同时刻的模式预报集成订正效果。结果表明:分季节试验中,基于XGBoost模型对2 m温度、10 m风速的集成预报结果相对原始最优预报结果误差明显优于其他两种传统方法。XGBoost对2 m温度集成的误差可降低11.02%—18.09%,10 m风速集成误差可降低31.23%—33.22%,10 m风向集成误差可降低4.1%—8.23%。2 m相对湿度的集成预报误差与传统方法接近。基于XGBoost的多模式集成预报模型可以充分“挖掘”不同模式或不同时刻快速更新循环预报优点,有效降低模式的系统性误差,提供准确性更高的多模式集成确定性预报产品。