Statistical evaluation of a radar rainfall system for sewer system management

Urban areas are faced with mounting demands for managing waste and stormwater for a cleaner environment. Rainfall information is a critical component in efficient management of urban drainage systems. A major water quality impact affecting receiving waterbodies is the discharge of untreated waste and stormwater during precipitation, termed wet weather flow. Elimination or reduction of wet weather flow in metropolitan sewer districts is a major goal of environmental protection agencies and often requires considerable capital improvements. Design of these improvements requires accurate rainfall data in conjunction with monitored wastewater flow data. Characterizing the hydrologic/hydraulic performance of the sewer using distant rain gauges can cause oversizing and wasted expenditures. Advanced technology has improved our ability to measure accurately rainfall over large areas. Weather radar, when combined with rain gauge measurements, provides detailed information concerning rainfall intensities over specific watersheds. Knowing how much rain fell over contributing areas during specific periods aids in characterizing inflow and infiltration to sanitary and combined sewers, calibration of sewer system models, and in operation of predictive real-time control measures. Described herein is the design of a system for managing rainfall information for sewer system management, along with statistical analysis of 60 events from a large metropolitan sewer district. Analysis of the lower quartile rainfall events indicates that the expected average difference is 25.61%. Upper quartile rainfall events have an expected average difference of 17.25%. Rain gauge and radar accumulations are compared and evaluated in relation to specific needs of an urban application. Overall, the events analyzed agree to within ± 8% based on the median average difference between gauge and radar.     

Optical and physical characterization of ��Iraqi freedom�� dust storm, a case study

Kuwait was exposed to a severe dust storm on 19 March 2003, the eve of operation ??Iraqi Freedom??. Three days of dust events (19, 26, 27 March) were analyzed for their aerosol optical and physical properties using ground-based and satellite-retrieved measurements. Ground-based measurements of aerosol optical depth (or thickness; AOD or AOT) at 675?nm, ?? ₆₅₇, ?ngstrom coefficient ?? _936/657, particulate matter of diameter 10???m or less, PM₁₀ (??g/m³), and meteorological parameters were analyzed for March 2003. AOT exceeded 3 for the 3?days of interest and PM₁₀ concentrations reached as high value as 2,457???g/m³ on 19 March dust storm day. Retrieved aerosol characteristics from space using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) on board Terra and Aqua satellite were examined against ground-based measurements. A strong correlation was found between ground-based measurements of ?? ₆₇₅ and the Terra-MODIS retrieved AOD₅₅₀. The synoptic of the dust storm were analyzed and source regions were identified using back trajectory analysis and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer Aerosol Index.     

Adaptation to climate change impacts on urban storm water: a case study in Arvika, Sweden

Already today, the functionality of many sewer and storm water systems are not up to the required standards and consequently flooding problems are experienced in case of heavy storms. System upgrades are required, which are however complicated by the expected future increase in short-term rainfall intensities as a result of climate change. In this case study, focusing on the town of Arvika, Sweden, this issue is investigated in three main steps. In the first, extreme value analyses of 30-min rainfall from an ensemble of climate projections are carried out to estimate the future increase and generate a future design storm. In the second, the existing system’s response to both today’s and future design storms are simulated by a coarse sewer model setup (MOUSE) and a detailed coupled surface-sewer model setup (TSR). In the third and final step, system upgrades are designed and evaluated by both models. The results indicate an increase by 10–30 % of today’s short-term rainfall extremes by the end of the century. Upgrading the system to achieve a satisfactory performance for the future design storm would cost approximately twice as much as an upgrade based on today’s design storm.     

Satellite Measurements of Tropospheric Column O<Subscript>3</Subscript> and NO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in Eastern and Southeastern Asia: Comparison with a Global Model (MOZART-2)

Satellite measurements of tropospheric column O₃ and NO₂ in eastern and southeastern Asia are analyzed to study the spatial and seasonal characteristics of pollution in these regions. Tropospheric column O₃ is derived from differential measurements of total column ozone from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), and stratospheric column ozone from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). The tropospheric column NO₂ is measured by Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME). A global chemical and transport model (Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2; MOZART-2) is applied to analyze and interpret the satellite measurements. The study, which is based on spring, summer, and fall months of 1997 shows generally good agreement between the model and satellite data with respect to seasonal and spatial characteristics of O₃ and NO₂ fields. The analysis of the model results show that the industrial emission of NO_x (NO + NO₂) contributes about 50%–80% to tropospheric column NO₂ in eastern Asia and about 20%–50% in southeastern Asia. The contribution of industrial emission of NO_x to tropospheric column O₃ ranges from 10% to 30% in eastern Asia. Biomass burning and lightning NO_x emissions have a small effect on tropospheric O₃ in central and eastern Asia, but they have a significant impact in southeastern Asia. The varying effects of NO_x on tropospheric column ozone are attributed to differences in relative abundance of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with respect to total nitrogen in the two regions.     

X波段双线偏振雷达回波强度衰减和地物回波识别订正

与常规雷达相比,双线偏振天气雷达在降水系统的准确探测、资料质量的提高等方面具有明显的优势,但X波段双线偏振雷达资料受衰减和地物的影响较大,需要进行必要的衰减和地物订正。本文以2010年7月中国气象局在广东阳江开展的遥感数据比对试验得到数据为例,用ZH和ZDR结合的方法对ZH进行衰减订正,用ZH和ZDR的方差识别地物回波,并利用反射率因子垂直廓线订正受地物影响的底层回波。将订正后的ZH与S波段雷达探测的ZH相比较,将订正后的ZH与KDP的散点图和拟合的KDP与ZH曲线关系对比验证。结果表明经过订正的ZH与S波段雷达探测的ZH一致性较好,与拟合曲线也更为吻合,说明方法能有效提高雷达资料的质量。     

大气PM2.5源解析“源清单化学质量平衡法(I-CMB)”模型的建立与应用

针对受体模型对大气PM2.5中二次无机、有机气溶胶不能给出有效源贡献的问题,建立了一种基于污染源清单的化学质量平衡(Inventory-Chemical Mass Balance,I-CMB)颗粒物源解析受体模型,代入北京市近年的污染物排放数据进行了解析应用。结果表明,燃煤是北京大气PM2.5的最大来源(占比约28.06%),其余依次为机动车(19.73%)、扬尘(17.88%)、工业(16.50%)、餐饮(3.43%)、植物(3.40%)。相比于传统的化学质量平衡法(Chemical Mass Balance,CMB),I-CMB的源解析过程对源成分谱的要求较低、抗干扰性更强,计算结果均衡、详尽,比较适合我国当前大气PM2.5控制的需求。     

阳江国际探空试验的GPS、探空、微波辐射计水汽资料对比分析

GPS/MET水汽资料因其建设维护成本低、时间分辨率高、可全天候、无人、自动观测等优点,已经成为获取大气水汽资料新的重要手段。以阳江第八届国际探空比对试验资料为基础,对比分析了GPS/MET与4种探空仪和微波辐射计获取的水汽资料。探空与GPS/MET测量的水汽值有较强的相关性,相关系数在0.57~0.74之间,但探空水汽值比GPS/MET偏高0.71~1.47mm,方差在3.48~3.96之间。其中RS92探空仪测量的水汽变幅与GPS/MET基本相当,但国内探空仪水汽测量值的变幅明显高于GPS/MET,偏高近1.6~1.8倍。微波辐射计在天气较好时,测量精度较高,基本上以3个国产探空仪数据相当;但微波辐射计在雨天受罩子上的雨水影响,误差较大,与GPS/MET的测量值不相关。     

European sources of halocarbons and nitrous oxide: Update 1986

Semi-continuous measurements of CFCl₃, CF₂Cl₂, CCl₄, CH₃CCl₃ and N₂O were made at Adrigole, Ireland as part of the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE). Clean, baseline air from the Atlantic Ocean was measured approximately 70% of the time; pollution events from Europe, for the remainder. The two final years of ALE data from Adrogole give a five-year record from July 1978 to June 1983. This paper extends previous work on the relative enhancements of trace gases during pollution episodes and presents (1) unambiguous identification of elevated levels of N₂O concurrent with halocarbon pollution events, (2) detection of trends in emission of CH₃CCl₃, (3) discovery of seasonal variations in emission of CF₂Cl₂, CCl₄ and CH₃CCl₃, (4) characterization of typical summer and winter pollution episodes, and (5) identification of weather patterns over Europe that are associated with high concentrations of CFCs at Adrigole. Some of these results assume that CFCl₃ represents a uniform, well buffered source from the continent. The latter two results are particularly useful in the testing and calibration of three-dimensional chemical transport models. Observed enhancements are marginally consistent with estimates of halocarbon use by the chemical industry. The source of nitrous oxide correlated with halocarbons is 0.8 Tg(N)/yr from Europe alone and represents approximately 10% of the global stratospheric loss.     

Characteristics of Elemental Composition of PM2.5 in the Spring Period at Tongyu in the Semi-arid Region of Northeast China

Continuous observations of mass concentration and elemental composition of aerosol particles （PM2.5） were conducted at Tongyu, a semi-arid site in Northeast China in the spring of 2006. The average mass concentration of PM2.5 at Tongyu station was 260.9±274.4 μg m^-3 during the observation period. Nine dust events were monitored with a mean concentration of 528.0±302.7 μgm^-3. The PM2.5 level during non- dust storm （NDS） period was 111.65±63.37 μg m^-3. High mass concentration shows that fine-size particles pollution was very serious in the semi-arid area in Northeast China. The enrichment factor values for crust elements during the dust storm （DS） period are close to those in the NDS period, while the enrichment factor values for pollution elements during the NDS period are much higher than those in the DS period, showing these elements were from anthropogenic sources. The ratios of dust elements to Fe were relative constant during the DS period. The Ca/Fe ratio in dust aerosols at Tongyu is remarkably different from that observed in other source regions and downwind regions. Meteorological analysis shows that dust events at Tongyu are usually associated with dry, low pressure and high wind speed weather conditions. Air mass back-trajectory analysis identified three kinds of general pathways were associated with the aerosol particle transport to Tongyu, and the northwest direction pathway was the main transport route.     

Occurence Frequency of Storm Wind Waves in the Baltic,Black, and Caspian Seas under Changing Climate Conditions

The article proposes the method of climatic forecast of the occurrence frequency of synoptic conditions causing severe hydrometeorological events as well as severe events that are genetically related to them, in particular, storm wind waves. The choice of sea level pressure field as an indicator of atmospheric conditions of storm waves is substantiated. The algorithm for the method implementation is developed. It includes the processing of observational/reanalysis data; wind wave simulation; the systematization of synoptic conditions that accompany storm waves under the modern climate; the assessment of the ability of climate models of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation to simulate correctly the frequency of the revealed types of synoptic conditions for the modern climate; and the forecast of the frequency of these types for the possible scenarios of the future climate.     

基于BP神经网络的北京夏季日最大电力负荷预测方法

利用2006~2017年北京夏季（6~8月）逐日最大电力负荷和同期气象资料,分析最大电力负荷与各种气象因子的相关性,基于BP（Back Propagation）神经网络算法,建立了两种夏季日最大电力负荷预测模型并对比。结果表明:北京夏季周末基础负荷远小于工作日,剔除时应加以区分;气象因子对气象负荷的影响具有累积效应,累积2 d时两者的相关性最强;结合实际,根据自变量的不同分别建立了两种日最大电力负荷预测模型;经实际预测检验,两种预测模型均取得了较好的预测效果,能够满足电力部门的实际需求,其中自变量中加入前一日气象负荷的模型效果更优。     

Anomalous lightning activity over the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo due to urban effects

A significant enhancement in the number of negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and a decrease in the percentage of positive CG flashes are observed over the city of São Paulo, similar to observations in other large urban areas. Strong evidence indicates that this anomalous behavior results from several mechanisms related to the urban effect. In this paper, we investigated the importance of the air pollution using CG lightning data provided by the Brazilian lightning detection network (BrasilDAT) for a 6-year period (1999–2004). Due to the large variations in the CG lightning activity in response to different meteorological processes, it is not an easy task to infer the contribution of air pollution to the enhancement in the lightning activity. In order to overcome such difficulty, two approaches were considered: (1) the weekly variation of the number of days with lightning in comparison to the mean concentration of particulate matter (PM₁₀), as well as other thermodynamical parameters; (2) the variation of the number of CG flashes and the maximum storm flash rate per individual thunderstorm for different levels of pollution. The results of both analyses suggest that: first, the enhancement in the CG lightning activity during the week days over São Paulo metropolitan region is related to the PM₁₀ concentration (pollution); second, the PM₁₀ concentration tends to increase the lifetime of the storms and, in consequence, the number of flashes per storm, and not the flash rate of the thunderstorm; and third, the effect of the pollution in the enhancement of the CG lightning activity is probably less significant compared to the effect of the urban heat island.     

天津电力人体舒适度预报模型

为做好天津电力气象服务工作,提供符合电力负荷预测需求的人体舒适度预报产品,本文根据国内外多种人体舒适度预报模型,利用2002—2005年夏季天津逐日电力负荷数据和气象数据,计算天津市逐日平均人体舒适度,详细分析各模型计算结果与平均气温和气象负荷的对应关系。结果发现,UTCI模型、吕伟林室外预报模型和李源模型计算的人体舒适度更符合天津市人体舒适度感觉,且与电力气象负荷的线性相关性较好。鉴于吕伟林模型在我国应用较广,本文采用最小二乘法对吕伟林室外预报模型进行拟合订正,建立出符合天津市电力气象服务需求的人体舒适度预报模型。     

An assessment of measures of storminess: simulated changes in northern hemisphere winter due to increasing CO2

Two methods for identifying mid-latitude synoptic time scale variability have been applied to data from the first United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments with present day and gradually increasing CO₂ concentrations. In the first the standard deviation of the time filtered mean sea level pressure field is taken to identify the location of the storm track and in the second individual cyclones are identified using synoptic criteria. The results have been compared with data from a 10 year archive of UKMO analysis. In the enhanced CO₂ experiment the changes in storminess identified by the two methods have been compared with changes in mean and maximum winds with special emphasis on the North Atlantic. The relative utility of the different measures for predicting potentially damaging synoptic events is discussed. Received: 3 May 1995 / Accepted: 7 November 1995     

An assessment of measures of storminess: Simulated changes in northern hemisphere winter due to increasing CO2

Two methods for identifying mid-latitude synoptic time scale variability have been applied to data from the first United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments with present day and gradually increasing CO₂ concentrations. In the first the standard deviation of the time filtered mean sea level pressure field is taken to identify the location of the storm track and in the second individual cyclones are identified using synoptic criteria. The results have been compared with data from a 10 year archive of UKMO analysis. In the enhanced CO₂ experiment the changes in storminess identified by the two methods have been compared with changes in mean and maximum winds with special emphasis on the North Atlantic. The relative utility of the different measures for predicting potentially damaging synoptic events is discussed.     

Environmental process and convergence belt of atmospheric NO2 pollution in North China

Both surface environmental monitoring and satellite remote sensing show that North China is one of the regions that are heavily polluted by NO₂. Using the NO₂ monitoring data from 18 major cities in the region, the tropospheric NO₂ column density data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite, and the observations from the China Meteorological Administration network, this paper analyzes a regional NO₂ pollution event in February 2007 over North China, examines the convergence of the pollutant, and identies its correlation with the atmospheric background conditions. The results show that daily mean NO₂ concentrations derived from surface observations are consistent with the mean values of the OMI measurements, with their correlation coeficient reaching 0.81. The correlations of NO₂ concentration with general weather patterns and sequential changes of temperature structure from 925 hPa down to the surface indicate that the weather fronts, high pressure and low pressure systems in the atmosphere play a role in changing the temporal and spatial evolutions of NO₂ through removing, accumulating or converging of the pollutant, respectively. It is also found that the eastern Taihang Mountains is most heavily polluted by NO₂ in North China. Based on a model that correlates NO₂ column density with surface wind vector, the relation of the NO₂ concentrations in six major cities in North China to the surrounding wind field is analyzed. The results show that the maximum wind field is associated with the highest frequency of pollution events, and under certain large-scale atmospheric conditions together with the topographic effect, small- and meso-scale wind fields often act to transport and converge pollutants, and become a major factor in forming the heaviest NO₂ pollution event in North China. Analysis of the causes for the severe NO₂ pollution event in this study may shed light on understanding, forecasting, and mitigating occurrences of heavy NO₂ pollution.     

Dual multiparameter radar observations of intense convective storms: The 24 June 1992 case study

Summary Data from two multiparameter radars are used to diagnose some microphysical characteristics of intense convective storms, in particular, the 24 June 1992 case near Fort Collins and Greeley, Colorado. Dual-polarization and dual-frequency radar measurements from the CSU-CHILL and NCAR/CP-2 radars provided the basis for microphysical interpretations. Supporting in-situ measurements were provided by several T-28 aircraft penetrations of updraft regions.Limited dual-Doppler synthesis as well as surface mesoscale features showed persistent regions of convergence and advection of moist air along the northeast side of the storm complex. The Fort Collins storm was analyzed in detail over its duration including an intercomparison of rainfall rates from raingage and as deduced from specific differential phase and attenuation measurements. Vertical sections of radar data taken parallel and perpendicular to the surface convergence axis showed interesting features such as positiveZ _dr and attenuation columns with an LDR cap on the inflow side. Such columns provide evidence of the important role of warm cloud processes in this storm. NCAR/CP-2 radar data from a multi-cellular storm in central Florida are also analyzed as a contrast to the 24 June Colorado case.With 23 Figures     

FY-3星紫外臭氧总量探测仪(TOU)监测大气臭氧及吸收性气溶胶

FY-3卫星上搭载的紫外臭氧总量探测仪(Total Ozone Unit,TOU)是我国首台自主研制的用于全球臭氧总量监测的仪器,自2008年5月至今已有3台仪器搭载在气象卫星(FY-3A/FY-3B/FY-3C)上成功发射并在轨运行。TOU利用紫外波段进行臭氧总量反演,以获得全球臭氧的分布及其变化。2013年,针对我国灰霾、沙尘等气溶胶污染事件频发的环境问题,TOU紫外探测数据被成功用于吸收性气溶胶指数(AAI)的反演,之后TOU被用于我国吸收性气溶胶污染事件的监测,为沙尘、灰霾等的预报提供监测数据。对TOU的数据和产品的质量和应用进行了介绍,包括L1B数据、臭氧总量产品及AAI指数。在此基础上,根据现有仪器的不足,对后续仪器的发展方向进行了阐述。     

内蒙古科尔沁沙地临界起沙阈值的范围确定

临界起沙阈值可表征地表土壤的可蚀性,是风蚀起沙研究中非常重要的物理量之一。基于微气象学方法,将沙尘浓度和垂直沙尘通量均开始增加且至少持续0.5 h所对应的摩擦速度(或风速)确定为临界起沙摩擦速度u_*t(或临界起沙风速U_t)。利用内蒙古科尔沁沙地地区2010-2013年春季大气环境综合观测资料,分析了不同沙尘天气过程(扬沙、沙尘暴和强沙尘暴)起沙阶段沙尘浓度和垂直沙尘通量随摩擦速度的演变特征,精细确定了该地区临界起沙摩擦速度(u_*t)和临界起沙风速(U_t)的范围分别为0.45±0.20和6.5±3.0 m/s,同时讨论了不同起沙判据对确定临界起沙阈值产生的影响。相比而言,采用的起沙判据尽可能地排除了沙尘输送和沉降过程的影响,适用于不同的沙尘天气类型,使沙尘粒子进入大气的起沙结果更趋于合理,其结果可为建立统一、合理的起沙判据提供参考。     

Synoptic and mesoscale study of a severe convective outbreak with the nonhydrostatic Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model

Summary ?A nonhydrostatic 4-km version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, with detailed microphysics included, was used to forecast the initiation, development, and structure of a tornado-producing supercell storm that occurred near Pine Lake (Alberta, Canada) on 15 July 2000. Examination of observations and comparison with conceptual models indicate that this storm is a good example of supercell storms that regularly produce summertime severe weather over Alberta. It was found that the high-resolution model was able to reproduce the early initiation of convective activity along the Rocky Mountains foothills, as well as the rapid northeastward propagation towards the Pine Lake area and the subsequent intensification into a supercell storm. The general structures of the forecasted convective system correspond well with conceptual representations of such events. Overall, this high-resolution forecast of the Pine Lake supercell storm was a significant improvement over the current operational version of the GEM model (24 km), which was not able to intensify the foothills’ convection into a supercell storm. Finally, it was found that the nonhydrostatic version of the model produces better trajectory and propagation speed of the convective system, as compared with the hydrostatic one. Received March 20, 2001; revised August 24, 2001