Extreme events: a framework for assessing natural hazards

Natural Hazards - An attempt has been made in this study to evaluate the performance of a multi-model ensemble prediction system (MMEPS) in the extended range prediction of genesis and track of...     

A three-level framework for multi-risk assessment

The effective management of the risks posed by natural and man-made hazards requires all relevant threats and their interactions to be considered. This paper proposes a three-level framework for multi-risk assessment that accounts for possible hazard and risk interactions. The first level is a flow chart that guides the user in deciding whether a multi-hazard and risk approach is required. The second level is a semi-quantitative approach to explore if a more detailed, quantitative assessment is needed. The third level is a detailed quantitative multi-risk analysis based on Bayesian networks. Examples that demonstrate the application of the method are presented.     

Resilience to natural hazards: a geographic perspective

Resilience is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of natural disaster systems. This article presents the origin of resilience and provides an overview of its development to date, which draws on the wide literature on ecological science, social science, social–environmental system and natural hazards. From a geographic perspective, the model of disaster resilience of “Loss–Response” of Location (DRLRL) was created and disaster resilience was defined from three dimensional mode, which focused on the spatial, temporal scale of resilience and attributes of hazard-affected bodies. A geographic approach was put forward to measure the disaster resilience, including two properties of inherent resilience and adaptive resilience and a case study was implemented in order to validate this approach. This perspective would offer greater potential in application of resilience concept, especially in the process of integrated risk management and disaster recovery.     

区域泥石流灾害的定量风险分析

概述了区域泥石流灾害的风险分析体系,指出了过去区域泥石流灾害危险性研究中的某些误区以及区域社会经济易损性评价的难点。借助于“灾害熵”的概念,提出了区域泥石流灾害危险性定量分析的一种新方法。通过将泥石流灾害的危险性和区域社会经济易损性进行分级,建立了风险评价矩阵。在此基础上,对区域泥石流灾害的风险进行了分级,可为有效地进行区域泥石流灾害的预警,以及为减灾防灾奠定了坚实的基础。     

Large-scale vulnerability assessments for natural hazards

This article examines the process by which vulnerability analysis takes place at the state level for State Hazard Mitigation Plans, as required by the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. The methods developed by the Center for Hazards Research and Policy Development at the University of Louisville are described, followed by a brief discussion on issues and challenges. A key finding in this article is the need to understand the impact and role of vulnerability analysis on planning and policy-making at the state and local level, as it applies to the investment of funding and resources in hazard mitigation. Recommendations for policy as well as directions in future research are offered in conclusion.     

Quantitative vulnerability estimation for scenario-based landslide hazards

Within the engineering profession and natural sciences, vulnerability is widely accepted to be defined as the degree of loss (or damage) to a given element or set of elements within the area affected by a threat. The value of vulnerability is expressed nondimensionally between 0 and 1. It is a fundamental component in the evaluation of landslide risk, and its accurate estimation is essential in making a reasonable prediction of the landslide consequences. Obviously, vulnerability to landslides depends not only on the characteristics of the element(s) at risk but also on the landslide intensity. This paper summarizes previous research on vulnerability to landslides and proposes a new quantitative model for vulnerability of structures and persons based on landslide intensity and resistance of exposed elements. In addition, an approximate function is suggested for estimating the vulnerability of persons in structures. Different methods for estimating the vulnerability of various elements to slow or rapid landslides are discussed. Finally, the application of the new model is illustrated through an example.     

Scientific and technological power and international cooperation in the field of natural hazards: a bibliometric analysis

Natural Hazards - Research on natural hazards has become a focus due to the serious threat to human life and property. Based on the Science Citation Index Expanded and the Social Sciences Citation...     

A unifying framework for location-production interaction modelling

Unification of a wide class of spatial and industrial interaction models is accomplished by identifying three structural similarities which exist between different facets of urban and regional behaviour. The resulting conceptual framework for location-production interaction modelling is based upon satisfactory information content. The research problem is to identify a set of accounting and behavioural constraints which characterize the system of interest to an acceptable level of accuracy. In this form of model-building, standard measures of uncertainty and information play a fundamental role.     

Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy

The assessment of the impact of different catastrophic events in a given area requires innovative approaches that allow risks comparison and that account for all the possible risk interactions. In the common practice, the risk evaluation related to different sources is generally done through independent analyses, adopting disparate procedures and time--space resolutions. Such a strategy of risks evaluation has some evident major drawbacks as, for example, it is difficult (if not impossible) to compare the risk of different origins, and the implicit assumption of independence of the risk sources leads to neglect possible interactions among threats and/or cascade effects. The latter may amplify the overall risk, and potentially the multi-risk index could be higher than the simple aggregation of single-risk indexes calculated considering each source as independent from the others. In this paper, we put forward some basic principles for multi-risk assessment, and we consider a real application to Casalnuovo municipality (Southern Italy), in which we face the problem to make different hazards comparable, and we highlight when and how possible interactions among different threats may become important.     

A critical state framework for modelling bonded geomaterials

A simple unified critical state constitutive model for bonded geomaterials is presented in this paper. The model, which is called CASM-n, is an enhancement of an existing unified critical state model for reconstituted geomaterials (CASM). Characteristic behaviours of a bonded geomaterial such as the pre-yield higher strength and stiffness and the cohesive–frictional shearing mode in the post-yield region are taken into account and included in the reference model. The salient feature of the proposed model is the incorporation of cohesive component into the stress–dilatancy relationship. Consideration of the contribution of cohesion to plastic flow allows the modelling of delayed dilatancy and softening–contraction behaviour, which are two interesting phenomena observed in bonded geomaterials.     

Attachment to the residential neighbourhood: a framework for analysis

There is an abundance of literature on attachment to the residential neighbourhood and satisfaction with it. Efforts to explain variation in such attachment emphasise the relevance of population characteristics to the neglect of factors affecting attachment which are external to the neighbourhood's population. This article suggests a wide framework for analysis. The suggestion is made that a hierarchy of neighbourhood contexts could be used in order to reach a more complete explanation and understanding of attachment and variation in it to the residential neighbourhood.     

Groundwater modelling in decision support: reflections on a unified conceptual framework

Groundwater models are commonly used as basis for environmental decision-making. There has been discussion and debate in recent times regarding the issue of model simplicity and complexity. This paper contributes to this ongoing discourse. The selection of an appropriate level of model structural and parameterization complexity is not a simple matter. Although the metrics on which such selection should be based are simple, there are many competing, and often unquantifiable, considerations which must be taken into account as these metrics are applied. A unified conceptual framework is introduced and described which is intended to underpin groundwater modelling in decision support with a direct focus on matters regarding model simplicity and complexity.     

Multi-risk governance for natural hazards in Naples and Guadeloupe

Technical and institutional capacities are strongly related and must be jointly developed to guarantee effective natural risk governance. Indeed, the available technical solutions and decision support tools influence the development of institutional frameworks and disaster policies. This paper analyses technical and institutional capacities, by providing a comparative evaluation of governance systems in Italy and France. The focus is on two case studies: Naples and Guadeloupe. Both areas are exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, floods, tsunamis, fires, cyclones, and marine inundations Cascade and conjoint effects such as seismic swarms triggered by volcanic activity have also been taken into account. The research design is based on a documentary analysis of laws and policy documents informed by semi-structured interviews and focus groups with stakeholders at the local level. This leads to the identification of three sets of governance characteristics that cover the key issues of: (1) stakeholders and governance level; (2) decision support tools and mitigation measures; and (3) stakeholder cooperation and communication. The results provide an overview of the similarities and differences as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the governance systems across risks. Both case studies have developed adequate decision support tools for most of the hazards of concern. Warning systems, and the assessment of hazards and exposure are the main strengths. While technical/scientific capacities are very well developed, the main weaknesses involve the interagency communication and cooperation, and the use and dissemination of scientific knowledge when developing policies and practices. The consequences for multi-risk governance are outlined in the discussion.     

Organizing social resilience in the context of natural hazards: a research note

Organizational scholars increasingly use the term “resilience” to analyze options of dealing with uncertain context conditions. What do these scholars have to offer to researchers in the field of natural hazards? This research note makes three suggestions. First, the research note frames social resilience—in contrast to a rigid response to radical change—as a process of broadening information-based activities, loosening formal controls, and using slack resources of organizational members. Second, the research note argues to leave the meaning of social resilience undefined at the outset of a research project with the aim of building theory about resilience. It is expected that a useful definition emerges in empirical research. Third, organizational studies highlight specific social structures and processes of social resilience, for instance, small groups of individuals in organizational and interorganizational contexts. Organizing becomes a crucial factor for dealing with natural hazards.     

Best practices in risk and crisis communication: Implications for natural hazards management

As societies evolve, often the most appropriate response to the hazard must also evolve. However, such shifts in appropriate response to a hazard, whether at the individual or at the societal level, are rarely straightforward: Closing the gap between desired practice and current practice requires effective communication. Although there is a significant literature on how to encourage adaptation before an event and how to communicate during an event, there is less work tying the two together or on how to communicate shifts in larger scale societal response to a natural hazard. In this article, we bring together the best practices and theoretical literature from risk communication and crisis communication and empirical literature on wildfire communication to derive the key characteristics associated with best communication practices. We then use this framework on three case studies of wildfires in California, Montana, and Wyoming, each of which used a different strategy for managing the fire, to understand whether approaching communication more holistically can lead to more desired natural hazard management outcomes. Our working hypothesis was as follows: effective communication before and during a fire would be associated with acceptance of more flexible fire management strategies. The findings indicate how a type of desired management change (more flexible fire management) is associated with more effective communication practices before and during the event.