冬季NPO突变前后大气环流和我国天气气候的变化

用Mann-Kendall突变检验方法对北太平洋涛动10a际气候突变进行的研究指出，在1976年左右存在着一次明显的气候突变，而突变前后大气环流场及遥相关型均发生了显著的变化。进而研究了北太平洋涛动突变前后我国冬季天气气候的变化特征。结果表明，突变前(后)，我国冬季气温一致性偏低(高)，且北方地区的变化明显大于南方；而降水则呈现出长江中下游地区偏多(少)和华南偏少(多)的反相特征。此外，冬季NPO突变前，北太平洋涛动以3a和6～7a的周期为主；突变后，3a周期仍然存在，但5a和10a左右的周期开始占主导地位。     

冬季北太平洋涛动和我国夏季降水

本文分析了冬季北太平洋涛动与我国夏季降水的关系。结果表明,当冬季北太平洋涛动偏强时,我国夏季主要多雨带位于黄河流域及其以北地区(即1类雨型);当冬季北太平洋涛动偏弱时,夏季主要多雨带位于黄河与长江之间,中心在淮河流域一带(即2类雨型)。据此建立了我国夏季1、2类雨型的预报判据。并进一步分析了北太平洋涛动遥相关型从冬到夏的演变过程及其对北太平洋地区海温异常的响应。     

冬季北太平洋涛动异常与东亚冬季风和我国天气气候的关系

用1948-2000年的北半球海平面气压场月平均资料，计算了北太平洋涛动指数和东亚冬季风指数，并研究了北太平洋涛动与东亚冬季风及我国冬季天气气候的关系。研究表明，北太平洋涛动异常变化与我国冬季天气、气候关系密切。强涛动年，东亚冬季风偏弱，我国气温普遍偏高，长江中下游地区降水偏少，而华南降水偏多；而弱涛动指数年，东亚冬季风偏强，我国气温普遍偏低，降水偏少。此外，还指出，强(弱)INPO年大气环流具有弱(强)WP型和强(弱)EU遥相关型。     

北太平洋涛动区500 hPa高度场季节变化特征及其对中国东北区降水的影响

利用国家气候中心1960~2000年500 hPa高度场10°×5°经纬度月平均资料，采用EOF、SVD方法，分析了北太平洋涛动区（25°~70°N，140°E~150°W）500 hPa高度场季节变化特征和中国东北区80个测站降水场相关。结果表明:（1）北太平洋涛动区500 hPa高度场冬季EOF第1载荷向量场呈由北向南的“-，+”波列分布，这种北南分布相反型，占总体方差贡献的40%，可以表现为北低南高，类似地面气压场涛动 (NPO) 的正位相阶段，反映了40年北太平洋中高纬度上空以东亚大槽为定常波的大气环流基本模态，亦是NPO呈正位相阶段的主要成因，反之，类似地面气压场涛动（NPO）的负位相阶段，第2载荷向量场呈整体“+”值分布，占方差贡献28%，该模态则表现为东亚大槽被长波脊替代的与气候基本模态呈相反分布的异常环流型；夏季第1载荷向量场基本模态则为全区的正值分布，占总体方差贡献的30%，第3载荷向量呈北“+”南“-”的分布，占方差贡献的13%，表明夏季500 hPa高度场NPO不是主要模态；春秋两季均呈现出较为明显的NPO模态；（2）北太平洋涛动区500 hPa高度冬季平均场与东北区夏季降水场呈由北向南的“+，-”相关波列，存在显著的相关性（α＞0.01）, 第1对SVD奇异向量占总方差贡献的49%，当NPO区前冬500 hPa高度场呈负位相阶段时，东北区夏季降水偏多，反之，东北区夏季干旱少雨，其它季节亦有类似隔季相关关系。     

我国东部夏季极端降水与北太平洋海温的遥相关研究

采用1951—1998年我国东部(105°E以东)59个站点夏季大雨及以上降水量资料与北太平洋海温场资料,借助于SVD分析方法,逐季分析我国东部极端降水与北太平洋海温及南方涛动指数的遥相关,进而检测影响我国东部地区极端降水空间分布的海温关键区和南方涛动及其显著季节(月份)。结果表明,我国东部夏季极端降水与同期太平洋SST的遥相关主要在太平洋130～170°E,5～25°N之间海域;Ni-no区域SST与次年夏季极端降水的相关主要表现在与华东地区的正相关;黑潮海域及加利福尼亚海流区春季SST与我国东部夏季极端降水呈明显的负相关;冬季太平洋SST与我国东部夏季极端降水的遥相关主要表现在,赤道东太平洋、黑潮海域的冬季海温与华东地区、河套地区降水的正相关;我国东部夏季极端降水与前一年秋季Nino区海温为负相关,与西太平洋海温为正相关。     

冬季各月北太平洋涛动的年际变化及其与我国降水异常的联系

利用ERA-Interim的海平面气压(Sea Level Pressure,SLP)再分析资料和中国160站的降水观测资料,分析了冬季各月(当年12月、次年1月和2月)北太平洋涛动(North Pacific Oscillation,NPO)的年际变化特征,及其与我国同期降水异常之间的联系。结果表明:1)冬季各月NPO指数的年际变化较为显著,但各月NPO指数年际变化之间的相关性较差,1979—2012年冬季12月与1月NPO指数年际变化之间的相关系数为0.09,而1月与2月NPO指数的相关系数仅为-0.003,均没有通过信度检验。2)1月和12月NPO指数年际变化与同期我国黄淮流域降水异常之间存在明显的正相关,而2月NPO指数年际变化与同期我国华北降水异常之间为明显的负相关。3)当1月(12月)NPO指数增加1个标准差时,我国黄淮流域降水量比多年平均值增加约50%(40%);而当2月NPO指数增加1个标准差时,我国华北降水量比多年平均值减少约30%。     

淮河流域夏季降水异常与北太平洋海温异常的关系

研究淮河流域降水异常与北太平洋海温异常的相关关系,初步探讨北太平洋海温异常对淮河流域降水的可能影响机制。结果表明:淮河流域夏季降水与上年8-10月北太平洋中部关键海区(162．5~177．5°W,36．5~41．5°N)的SSTA存在持续高的正相关关系;淮河流域夏季降水异常对应着一种大范围的海温异常分布型,而关键海区正好位子其相关最显著地区;正是由于北太平洋大范围持续的海温异常引起了次年夏季大气环流的异常,导致了淮河流域夏季降水异常,这也正是海温与降水具有很好相关的内在原因。     

北太平洋涛动的季节演变及其与我国冬春气候异常的联系

本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和我国160站的观测资料,首先定义了季节平均的北太平洋涛动(NPO)指数,在此基础上分析了不同季节中NPO的时空变化特征,特别对冬季和春季NPO与我国气温、降水异常的关系作了研究.结果表明,作为北太平洋地区海平面气压(SLP)年际变化的第二模态,NPO具有相当正压的结构,在地面表现为...     

夏季青藏高原气温与冬季北太平洋海温的异常特征及其相关分析

利用青海、 西藏59个测站1971-2004年夏季（6~8月）的月平均气温和北太平洋(10°S~50°N、 120°E~80°W)1970-2003年的冬季（上年12月~次年2月）平均海表温度, 通过EOF、 REOF、 SVD等方法, 对青藏高原地区夏季气温和前期冬季北太平洋海温的异常特性以及两者之间的空间遥相关特征进行了研究, 并对北太平洋冬季海温及青藏高原夏季气温的年代际空间特征进行了分析。结果表明, 北太平洋冬季海温的异常分布型有： （1）赤道中东太平洋与西北太平洋海温相反分布型, （2）副热带北太平洋海温东西反相分布型, （3）北太平洋海温南北反相分布型, （4）北太平洋海温东西一致分布型。其中赤道中东太平洋与西北太平洋海温反相变化是冬季北太平洋SSTA的主要空间分布特征。进一步分析表明, 北太平洋冬季海温可分为6个气候区： 赤道中东太平洋区、 加利福尼亚海流区、 黑潮区、 亲潮区、 阿拉斯加海流区和中太平洋区。青藏高原地区夏季气温的异常分布型主要为（1）全区一致的偏高（低）型, （2）南北相反分布型, （3）周边地区与腹地相反分布型。青藏高原夏季气温可分为4个主要气候区： 东北部区、 西藏东南部区、 中部区和南部边缘区。冬季赤道中东太平洋SSTA 与次年夏季青藏高原地区区域性温度异常之间有较为明显的负相关关系, 这种关系在两者的其它空间关系中是第一位的。     

影响吉林省夏季气温、降水的前期信号因子分析

从各层次高度场环流、海温场分布型式,以及一些环流特征量等进行了分析,通过分析,寻出影响吉林省夏季气温、降水的前期信号因子,总结出预测模型图,以期在今后的预测中有所帮助。分析中发现：前一年冬季乌拉尔山地区高压的强（弱）与吉林省夏季气温高（低）有直接关系;前一年秋、冬季至当年春季西北太平洋副热带高压偏强（弱）,则吉林省夏季气温高（低）;当年春季暖池区海温高（低）,则吉林省夏季气温高（低）。前1年春季黑潮至暖池区海温高（低）,则吉林省中西部夏季降水少（多）;前2年春季赤道东太平洋区海温高（低）,则中西部夏季降水少（多）;前2年秋季西风漂流区及黑潮区海温高（低）,则东南部夏季降水多（少）;冬季北太平洋涛动强（弱）,吉林省夏季降水少（多）、北大西洋涛动强（弱）,夏季降水多（少）;东亚冬季风强度强（弱）,则吉林省夏季少雨（多雨）概率较大;前1年4月。5月极涡1区强度弱（强）,6月降水易多（少）。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.