Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950

Global mean temperature change simulated by climate models deviates from the observed temperature increase during decadal-scale periods in the past. In particular, warming during the ‘global warming hiatus’ in the early twenty-first century appears overestimated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. We examine the role of equatorial Pacific variability in these divergences since 1950 by comparing 18 studies that quantify the Pacific contribution to the ‘hiatus’ and earlier periods and by investigating the reasons for differing results. During the ‘global warming hiatus’ from 1992 to 2012, the estimated contributions differ by a factor of five, with multiple linear regression approaches generally indicating a smaller contribution of Pacific variability to global temperature than climate model experiments where the simulated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) or wind stress anomalies are nudged towards observations. These so-called pacemaker experiments suggest that the ‘hiatus’ is fully explained and possibly over-explained by Pacific variability. Most of the spread across the studies can be attributed to two factors: neglecting the forced signal in tropical Pacific SST, which is often the case in multiple regression studies but not in pacemaker experiments, underestimates the Pacific contribution to global temperature change by a factor of two during the ‘hiatus’; the sensitivity with which the global temperature responds to Pacific variability varies by a factor of two between models on a decadal time scale, questioning the robustness of single model pacemaker experiments. Once we have accounted for these factors, the CMIP5 mean warming adjusted for Pacific variability reproduces the observed annual global mean temperature closely, with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 from 1950 to 2018. The CMIP6 ensemble performs less favourably but improves if the models with the highest transient climate response are omitted from the ensemble mean.

     

Plant drought tolerance trait is the key parameter in improving the modeling of terrestrial transpiration in arid and semi-arid regions

陆面过程蒸腾作用的模拟制约着天气,气候降水预测的精确度.近几十年来,为了更好地描述植被蒸腾的水力约束,陆面过程模式发展了基于植物性状的植物水力胁迫方案.然而,我们对于植物性状在蒸腾模拟中的地位仍然缺乏了解,植物性状对蒸腾的重要性仍需进一步量化.本研究利用Morris方法评估植物性状参数在通用陆面模式植物水力胁迫方案(CoLM-P₅₀HS)中的重要性,针对17种植物性状,筛选出最为重要的:耐旱性状(P₅₀),气孔性状,和光合作用性状.在12个FLUXNET站点中,参数的重要性由归一化敏感度来衡量.P₅₀的重要性随着降水的减少而增加,而气孔性状和光合作用性状的重要性则随着降水的减少而减少.在干旱或半干旱地区,P₅₀比气孔性状和光合作用性状更重要,这意味着当植物经常经历干旱时,水力安全策略比植物生长策略更关键.而耐旱性状的巨大变异性进一步暗示了多种植物水力安全策略的共存.忽视P₅₀的变异性可能会对陆面过程模式蒸腾作用的模拟造成严重误差.因此,为了更好地表示植物水力功能的变异性,需要增加对耐旱性状的观测并耦合到陆面模式中.     

Modeling soil thermal and hydrological dynamics and changes of growing season in Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems

Abundant evidence indicates the growing season has been changed in the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems in the last century as climate warms. Reasonable simulations of growing season length, onset, and ending are critical to a better understanding of carbon dynamics in these ecosystems. Recent ecosystem modeling studies have been slow to consider the interactive effects of soil thermal and hydrological dynamics on growing season changes in northern high latitudes. Here, we develop a coupled framework to model these dynamics and their effects on plant growing season at a daily time step. In this framework, we (1) incorporate a daily time step snow model into our existing hydrological and soil thermal models and (2) explicitly model the moisture effects on soil thermal conductivity and heat capacity and the effects of active layer depth and soil temperature on hydrological dynamics. The new framework is able to well simulate snow depth and soil temperature profiles for both boreal forest and tundra ecosystems at the site level. The framework is then applied to Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems for the period 1923–2099. Regional simulations show that (1) for the historical period, the growing season length, onset, and ending, estimated based on the mean soil temperature of the top 20 cm soils, and the annual cycle of snow dynamics, agree well with estimates based on satellite data and other approaches and (2) for the projected period, the plant growing season length shows an increasing trend in both tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. In response to the projected warming, by year 2099, (1) the snow-free days will be increased by 41.0 and 27.5 days, respectively, in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems and (2) the growing season lengths will be more than 28 and 13 days longer in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, respectively, compared to 2010. Comparing two sets of simulations with and without considering feedbacks between soil thermal and hydrological dynamics, our analyses suggest coupling hydrological and soil thermal dynamics in Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems is important to model ecosystem dynamics, including growing season changes.     

Comparisons of modelled and observed climate for impact assessments

Summary Comparisons between observed and modelled values of surface temperature, surface precipitation and 500 hPa height for the current climate were made for the southeast United States. Daily values and analyses pertinent to impact assessment, were emphasized. For the model, the time-independent 10-year series of values developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model were used. Observations were drawn from records for various stations and decades within the model grid-cell. Cumulative frequency distributions of temperature indicated both more clustering close to the mean and greater extremes for the model. The model reproduced the seasonal cycle of day-to-day temperature variability, but introduced a phase shift of about four months. One result was an apparent overabundance of hot spells in the model results. For precipitation the model indicated twice as many raindays as were observed, about the same number of days when precipitation exceeded 5 mm, and fewer days with amounts exceeding 10 mm, effectively decreasing the probability of heavy precipitation while enhancing annual totals. In winter the model appeared to represent the results from an aggregation of stations within the grid-cell, but in summer it was closer to individual station results. The model reproduced the seasonal cycle in the height and standard deviation of the 500 hPa surface, with a damped amplitude in both cases.With 9 Figures     

Snow and cloud feedbacks modelled by an atmospheric general circulation model

One of the most important parametrizations in general circulation models used for climate change experiments is that of the surface albedo. The results of an albedo feedback experiment carried out under the auspices of the US Department of Energy are presented. An analysis of long and short wave components of the model response shows that short wave response dominates changes in fixed to variable albedo experiments, but that long wave response dominates in clear to cloudy sky changes. Cloud distribution changes are also discussed and are related to changes in global sensitivity. At the surface, the heat balance change for perturbed sea surface temperatures is dominated by changes in latent heat flux and downward long wave radiation. If albedo is freed up however, the major contrast lies in the change in surface reflected short wave radiation, amplified by changes in downward short wave radiation caused by cloud amount changes.     

Comparative measurement of stem flow and transpiration in cotton

Summary Whole-plant transpiration (T) measurements have many applications, but appropriate methods have remained somewhat elusive. A new method using a constant power heat balance gauge, wherein the xylem mass flow rate is calculated from a balance of heat into and out of a stem, has been shown to provide accurate stem flow measurements. To evaluate the applicability of this promising method to field experiments, cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. GP 3774) stem flow measurements were compared withT measured from a weighing lysimeter. Initially to confirm method accuracy, stem flow values were compared in the glasshouse withT values determined by mass measurements of a potted plant. The root mean square error (RMSE) between the daylight losses from both (n = 16) was 8.6% of the mean measuredT values. In the field, hourly stem flow and lysimeterT values were also similar, but there was a large variation in stem flow values among the different plants. To account for differences in plant size between the plants with gauges and all lysimeter plants, stem flow values were adjusted using a stem area ratio factor, which adjusted values, on the average for the season, by 25%. Before adjustment, daylight stem flow totals were consistently greater than lysimeterT values. After adjustment, the means differed by only 9%, and theRMSE was reduced from 129 to 69 g plant^–1 d^–1. The coefficient of variation of daylight stem flow totals increased throughout the season. In the glasshouse, method accuracy was comparable (errors < ± 10%) to what has been previously determined. In the field, determining method accuracy was confounded by plant-to-plant variability and, possibly, by errors, unique to the gauge design used in this study, at high flow rates. Thus, this method can provide accurate flow measurements from individual herbaceous plants and is a valuable technique for many applications.With 7 Figures     

Calculations of the transpiration rate and temperature of a leaf

Summary Sample calculations of the water-loss rate and the temperature of a leaf have been made in terms of three climatic factors (i. e. net radiation intensity, ambient temperature and ambient vapour pressure) and two diffusion resistances, respectively within and outside the leaf tissue. The results indicate the variability of the ratio of the respective water losses from a leaf and a water surface. Increasing the external diffusion resistance, e. g. by lowering the wind speed, is shown to lead to either an increase or a decrease of transpiration, depending on atmospheric humidity. The cooling of a leaf resulting from transpiration is shown to increase as the ambient air becomes more dry and calm.

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Zusammenfassung Der Wasserverlust und die Temperatur eines Blattes wurden in Abhängigkeit von drei meteorologischen Faktoren (Strahlungsbilanz, Umgebungstemperatur und Umgebungsfeuchte) und zwei Diffusionswiderständen (innerhalb und außerhalb des Blattes) berechnet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen die Veränderlichkeit des Verhältnisses zwischen dem gleichzeitigen Wasserverlust von einem Blatt und von einer Wasseroberfläche. Wird der äußere Diffusionswiderstand erhöht, z. B. durch Verminderung der Windgeschwindigkeit, so äußert sich das entweder in einer Erhöhung oder einer Verminderung der Transpiration, je nach dem Wassergehalt der Luft. Die Abkühlung des Blattes durch die Transpiration wird um so größer, je trockener und ruhiger die Umgebungsluft ist.

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Résumé On a calculé la perte d'eau et la température d'une feuille en partant de trois éléments météorologiques (bilan de radiation, température et humidité du milieu ambiant) ainsi que de deux résistances de diffusion (à l'intérieur et à l'extérieur de la feuille). Les chiffres obtenus montrent la variabilité du rapport existant entre les pertes d'eau simultanées d'une feuille et d'une surface d'eau libre. Si la résistance à la diffusion augmente à l'extérieur, par exemple par suite d'une diminution de la vitesse du vent, la transpiration augmente ou diminue selon la teneur en eau de l'air ambiant. Le refroidissement de la feuille par suite de la transpiration est d'autant plus marqué que l'air ambiant est plus sec et plus calme.

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With 3 Figures     

Energy balance and transpiration from tussock grassland in New Zealand

The energy balance was measured for the dry canopy of narrow-leaved snow tussock (Chionochloa rigida), and measurements of transpiration were obtained from a large weighing lysimeter.Typical maximum summer transpiration rates of 0.21–0.43 mmhr^-1 (140–290 W m^-2) were recorded. The latent heat flux accounted for less than 40% of net radiation. The estimated value of the bulk stomatal resistance (r _ST) for 29 days was 158 s m^-1, and the decoupling parameter () was 0.17. Transpiration rates were not driven directly by net radiation, but were closely linked to the size of the regional saturation deficit imposed at the level of the canopy by efficient overhead mixing, and were constrained by a large bulk stomatal resistance. A linear relationship between r _ST and the saturation deficit is proposed as a realistic method for estimating transpiration for water yield studies of tussock catchments.     

Modeling the effects of aerosols to increase rainfall in regions with shortage

It is well known that the emissions of hot gases from various power stations and other industrial sources in the regional atmosphere cause decrease in rainfall around these complexes. To overcome this shortage, one method is to introduce artificially conducive aerosol particles in the atmosphere using aeroplane to increase rainfall. To prove the feasibility of this idea, in this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed involving five dependent variables, namely, the volume density of water vapour, number densities of cloud droplets and raindrops, and the concentrations of small and large size conducive aerosol particles. It is assumed that two types of aerosol particles are introduced in the regional atmosphere, one of them is of small size CCN type which is conducive to increase cloud droplets from vapour phase, while the other is of large size and is conducive to transform the cloud droplets to raindrops. The model is analyzed using stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. The model analysis shows that due to the introduction of conducive aerosol particles in the regional atmosphere, the rainfall increases as compared to the case when no aerosols are introduced in the atmosphere of the region under consideration. The computer simulation confirms the analytical results.     

Observed and modelled “chemical weather” during ESCOMPTE

The new MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle (MOCAGE) three-dimensional multiscale chemistry and transport model (CTM) has been applied to study heavy pollution episodes observed during the ESCOMPTE experiment. The model considers the troposphere and lower stratosphere, and allows the possibility of zooming from the planetary scale down to the regional scale over limited area subdomains. Like this, it generates its own time-dependent chemical boundary conditions in the vertical and in the horizontal. This paper focuses on the evaluation and quantification of uncertainties related to chemical and transport modelling during two intensive observing periods, IOP2 and IOP4 (June 20–26 and July 10–14, 2001, respectively). Simulations are compared to the database of four-dimensional observations, which includes ground-based sites and aircraft measurements, radiosoundings, and quasi-continuous measurements of ozone by LIDARs. Thereby, the observed and modelled day-to-day variabilities in air composition both at the surface and in the vertical have been assessed. Then, three sensitivity studies are conducted concerning boundary conditions, accuracy of the emission dataset, and representation of chemistry. Firstly, to go further in the analysis of chemical boundary conditions, results from the standard grid nesting set-up and altered configurations, relying on climatologies, are compared. Along with other recent studies, this work advocates the systematic coupling of limited-area models with global CTMs, even for regional air quality studies or forecasts. Next, we evaluate the benefits of using the detailed high-resolution emissions inventory of ESCOMPTE: improvements are noticeable both on ozone reactivity and on the concentrations of various species of the ozone photochemical cycle especially primary ones. Finally, we provide some insights on the comparison of two simulations differing only by the parameterisation of chemistry and using two state-of-the-art chemical schemes for regional photochemical modelling. Regional air quality modelling is found to be highly sensitive to the emission inventory dataset and also to the vertical and horizontal boundary conditions and detailed representation of chemistry. Interestingly enough, they infer the same range of errors compared to total model errors.     

Comparison of modelled and observed dependence of shear on stratification in the upper ocean

Statistics on 10 m resolution vertical shear have been compiled as a function of Brunt-Vaisala (BV) frequency for upper ocean (60–1400 m) measurements made by expendable current profiles in the north Pacific Ocean, in the Sargasso Sea, around the Bahamas, in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, and in the Norwegian Sea area. The relationship of shear to BV frequency tends to follow a linear relationship that is compared with an adaptation of the Garrett and Munk (GM) internal wave model and to the Richardson Number. The majority of the measurements suggest that the internal wave energy level varies from one to ten times the constant level assumed in the GM model and that the 10 m bulk Richardson Number is > 0.25. The data suggest that shear levels are slightly higher in the northeast North Atlantic Ocean than in the Sargasso Sea, but no obvious increase is seen with proximity to fronts or from abrupt changes in surface forcing.     

Combined effects of pumped-storage operation and climate change on thermal structure and water quality

Climatic Change - The assessment of ecological impacts of pumped-storage (PS) hydropower plants on the two connected water bodies is usually based on present climatic conditions. However,...     

未来甲烷排放增加对平流层水汽和全球臭氧的影响

利用一个耦合的大气化学-气候模式(WACCM3)研究了地表甲烷排放增加对平流层水汽和全球臭氧变化的影响.结果表明,如果地表甲烷的排放量在2000年的基础上增加50%(达到政府间气候变化专门委员会A1B排放情景中2050年的值),平流层水汽体积分数将平均增加约0.8×10^-6.南半球平流层甲烷转化为水汽的效率比北半球高.在北半球平流层中,1mol甲烷分子可以转化为约1.63mol的水汽分子,而在南半球1mol甲烷分子大概可以转化为约1.82mol的水汽分子.甲烷排放增加50%将使全球中低纬度地区以及北半球高纬度地区的臭氧柱总量增加1%-3%,使南半球高纬度地区臭氧柱总量增加近8%,而秋季(南半球春季)南极地区臭氧柱总量增加幅度可高达20%,南极臭氧的这种显着增加主要是由于甲烷增加造成的化学反馈所致.在北半球中高纬度地区,甲烷增加引起的臭氧变化主要与甲烷氧化导致的水汽增加有关.研究还表明,未来甲烷排放增加对臭氧的恢复作用其实与溴化物排放的减少一样重要.     

Clear sky ultraviolet-B radiation in the English Midlands: A comparison of measured and modelled values

Summary Spectral measurements were made of solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) irradiance at Sutton Bonington (52° 50N, 1° 15W) under cloudless skies using a Licor LI 1800 scanning spectroradiometer. The finite bandpass of the instrument and the steep shape of the UVB spectra caused overestimation of irradiance at short wavelengths. Spectra were corrected mathematically for these effects.The corrected spectra were compared to estimates of global UVB irradiance as a function of zenith angle and amount of ozone. Comparisons were made at 300 nm, 310 nm and 320 nm. Estimates were significantly greater (p = 0.05) than the measurements except at 320 nm where differences were not significant. The differences may have been the result of overestimation of UVB at short wavelengths, since some of the assumptions on which the estimates were based may not be valid for Sutton Bonington conditions.

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Zusammenfassung Unter wolkenlosem Himmel wurden in Sutton Bonington (52° 50N, 1° 15W) mittels eines Licor LI 1800 Spektroradiometer-Scanners Spektralmessungen von Ultraviolett-B (UVB)-Strahlung durchgeführt. Die endliche Bandbreite des Instruments und der steile Anstieg der UVB-Spektren führten zu einer Überschätzung der Strahlung im kurzwelligen Bereich. Die Spektren wurden in dieser Hinsicht mathematisch korrigiert.Die korrigierten Spektren wurden mit den Schätzwerten der globalen UVB-Strahlung — als Funktion von Zenithwinkel und Ozonmenge — bei 300nm, 310nm und 320nm verglichen. Hiebei erwiesen sich die Schätzwerte wesentlich höher (p = 0,05) als die Meßwerte, nur bei 320nm waren die Unterschiede nicht signifikant. Die Unterschiede könnten aus der Überschätzung von UVB im kurzwelligen Bereich resultieren, da einige der Schätzungsvoraussetzungen auf die Bedingungen in Sutton Bonington nicht zutreffen dürften.

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On leave from Department of Agronomy and Soils, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, U.S.A.

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With 4 Figures     

Mean temperature and mean concentration distributions over a physically modelled three-dimensional heat island for different stability conditions

Results of flow visualization, and the mean temperature measurements over a physically modelled three-dimensional heat island in a wind tunnel capable of simulating stratified atmospheric boundary layers are presented. Concentration measurements of Kr85 released from an upwind two-dimensional continuous line source show good correlation with flow visualization and mean temperature distributions. The results indicate the unique features of three-dimensional flow over a heat island - lateral low-level convergence, upward vertical motions, and upper-level horizontal divergence.