Meridional Variation of the 1955-2003 Sea Level Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Associated with El Nifio Events

The Sea Level Anomaly-Torque （SLAT, relative to a reference location in the Pacific Ocean）, which means the total torque of the gravity forces of sea waters with depths equal to the Sea Level Anomaly （S/A） in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is defined in this study. The time series of the SLAT from merged altimeter data （1993-2003） had a great meridional variation during the 1997-1998 E1 Nifio event. By using historical upper layer temperature data （1955-2003） for the tropical Pacific Ocean, the temperature-based SLAT is also calculated and the meridional variation can be found in the historical E1 Nifio events （1955-2003）, which suggests that the meridional shifts of the sea level anomaly are also intrinsic oscillating modes of the E1 Nifio cycles like the zonal shifts.     

Why does the IOD-ENSO teleconnection disappear in some decades?

Lag correlations between sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean(STIO) in fall and Nio 3.4 SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific in the following fall are subjected to decadal variation,with positive correlations during some decades and negative correlations during others. Negative correlations are smaller and of shorter duration than positive correlations. Variations in lag correlations suggest that the use of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) as a predictor of the El Nio Southern Oscillation(ENSO) at a lead time of one year is not effective during some decades. In this study,lag correlations between IOD and ENSO anomalies were analyzed to investigate why the IOD-ENSO teleconnection disappears during decades with negative correlations. Anomalies induced by the IOD in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during decades with negative correlations are still present,but at a greater depth than in decades with positive correlations,resulting in a lack of response to oceanic channel dynamics in the cold tongue SSTA. Lag correlations between oceanic anomalies in the west Pacific warm pool in fall and the equatorial Pacific cold tongue with a one-year time lag are significantly positive during decades with negative correlations. These results suggest that oceanic channel dynamics are overwhelmed by oceanatmosphere coupling over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during decades with negative correlations. Therefore,the Indonesian throughflow is not effective as a link between IOD signals and the equatorial Pacific ENSO.     

Distribution of the tropical Pacific surface zonal wind anomaly and its relation with two types of El Niño

El Nio events with an eastern Pacific pattern(EP) and central Pacific pattern(CP) were first separated using rotated empirical orthogonal functions(REOF).Lead/lag regression and rotated singular value decomposition(RSVD) analyses were then carried out to study the relation between the surface zonal wind(SZW) anomalies and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific.A possible physical process for the CP El Ni o was proposed.For the EP El Ni o,strong westerly anomalies that spread eastward continuously produce an anomalous ocean zonal convergence zone(ZCZ) centered on about 165°W.This SZW anomaly pattern favors poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator.For the CP El Nio,westerly anomalies and the ZCZ are mainly confined to the western Pacific,and easterly anomalies blow in the eastern Pacific.This SZW anomaly pattern restrains poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator;however,there is an eastward Sverdrup transport at about 5°N,which favors the warming of the north-eastern tropical Pacific.It is found that the slowness of eastward propagation of subsurface warm water(partly from the downwelling caused by Ekman convergence and the ZCZ) is due to the slowdown of the undercurrent in the central basin,and vertical advection in the central Pacific may be important in the formation and disappearance of the CP El Nio.     

Interannual variability of transport and bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current in the tropical North Pacific Ocean

The relationship of the interannual variability of the transport and bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) to the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated. This is done through composite analysis of sea surface height (SSH) observed by satellite altimeter during October 1992-July 2009, and correspondingly derived sea surface geostrophic currents. During El Nio/La Ni a years, the SSH in the tropical North Pacific Ocean falls/rises, with maximum changes in the region 0-15°N, 130°E-160°E. The decrease/increase in SSH induces a cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the western tropical gyre. The cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the gyre results in an increase/decrease of NEC transport, and a northward/southward shift of the NEC bifurcation latitude near the Philippine coast. The variations are mainly in response to anomalous wind forcing in the west-central tropical North Pacific Ocean, related to ENSO events.     

Investigation of the Heat Budget of the Tropical Indian Ocean During Indian Ocean Dipole Events Occurring After ENSO

The Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) is an important natural mode of the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO). Sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) variations in the TIO are an essential focus of the study of the IOD. Monthly variations of air-sea heat flux, rate of change of heat content and oceanic thermal advection in positive/negative IOD events(pIODs/nIODs) occurring after El Ni?o/La Ni?a were investigated, using long-series authoritative data, including sea surface wind, sea surface flux, ocean current, etc. It was found that the zonal wind anomaly induced by the initial SSTA gradient is the main trigger of IODs occurring after ENSOs. In pIODs, SSTA evolution in the TIO is primarily determined by the local surface heat flux anomaly, while in nIODs, it is controlled by anomalous oceanic thermal advection. The anomalous southwestern anticyclonic circulation in pIODs enhances regional differences in evaporative capacity and latent heat, and in nIODs, it augments the east-west difference in the advective thermal budget. Further, the meridional anomaly mechanism is also non-negligible during the development of nIODs. As the SWA moves eastward, the meridional SWA prevails near 60°E and the corresponding meridional anomalous current appears. The corresponding maximum meridional thermal advection anomaly reaches 200 Wm~(-2) in September.     

Subtropical air-sea interaction and development of central Pacific El Niño

The standard deviation of the central Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) during the period from October to February shows that the central Pacific SSTA variation is primarily due to the occurrence of the Central Pacific El Nio (CP-El Nio) and has a connection with the subtropical air-sea interaction in the northeastern Pacific. After removing the influence of the Eastern Pacific El Nio, an S-EOF analysis is conducted and the leading mode shows a clear seasonal SSTA evolving from the subtropical northeastern Pacific to the tropical central Pacific with a quasi-biennial period. The initial subtropical SSTA is generated by the wind speed decrease and surface heat flux increase due to a north Pacific anomalous cyclone. Such subtropical SSTA can further influence the establishment of the SSTA in the tropical central Pacific via the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. After established, the central equatorial Pacific SSTA can be strengthened by the zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback, and develop into CP-El Nio. However, as the thermocline feedback increases the SSTA cooling after the mature phase, the heat flux loss and the re-versed zonal advective feedback can cause the phase transition of CP-El Nio. Along with the wind stress variability, the recharge (discharge) process occurs in the central (eastern) equatorial Pacific and such a process causes the phase consistency between the thermocline depth and SST anomalies, which presents a contrast to the original recharge/discharge theory.     

ENSO cycle and climate anomaly in China

The inter-annual variability of the tropical Pacific Subsurface Ocean Temperature Anomaly (SOTA) and the associated anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Asian North Pacific during the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) atmospheric reanalysis data and simple ocean data simulation (SODA). The relationship between the ENSO and the climate of China was revealed. The main results indicated the following: 1) there are two ENSO modes acting on the subsurface tropical Pacific. The first mode is related to the mature phase of ENSO, which mainly appears during winter. The second mode is associated with a transition stage of the ENSO developing or decaying, which mainly occurs during summer; 2) during the mature phase of El Ni o, the meridionality of the atmosphere in the mid-high latitude increases, the Aleutian low and high pressure ridge over Lake Baikal strengthens, northerly winds prevail in northern China, and precipitation in northern China decreases significantly. The ridge of the Ural High strengthens during the decaying phase of El Ni o, as atmospheric circulation is sustained during winter, and the northerly wind anomaly appears in northern China during summer. Due to the ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific, the western Pacific Subtropical High becomes weaker, and south-southeasterly winds prevail over southern China. As a result, less rainfall occurs over northern China and more rainfall over the Changjiang River basin and the southwestern and eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The flood disaster that occurred south of Changjiang River can be attributed to this. The La Ni a event causes an opposite, but weaker effect; 3) the ENSO cycle can influence climate anomalies within China via zonal and meridional heat transport. This is known as the "atmospheric-bridge", where the energy anomaly within the tropical Pacific transfers to the mid-high latitude in the northern Pacific through Hadley cells and Rossby waves, and to the western Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. This research also discusses the special air-sea boundary processes during the ENSO events in the tropical Pacific, and indicates that the influence of the subsurface water of the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation may be realized through the sea surface temperature anomalies of the mixed water, which contact the atmosphere and transfer the anomalous heat and moisture to the atmosphere directly. Moreover, the reason for the heavy flood within the Changjiang River during the summer of 1998 is reviewed in this paper.     

The Influence of El Ni?o on MJO over the Equatorial Pacific

In this paper, the influence of El Ni?o event on the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) over the equatorial Pacific is studied by using reanalysis data and relevant numerical simulation results. It is clearly shown that El Ni?o can reduce the intensity of MJO. The kinetic energy of MJO over the equatorial Pacific is stronger before the occurrence of the El Ni?o event, but it is reduced rapidly after El Ni?o event outbreak, and the weakened MJO even can continue to the next summer. The convection over the central-western Pacific is weakened in El Ni?o winter. The positive anomalous OLR over the central-western Pacific has opposite variation in El Ni?o winter comparing to the non-ENSO cases. The vertical structure of MJO also affected by El Ni?o event, so the opposite direction features of the geopotential height and the zonal wind in upper and lower level troposphere for the MJO are not remarkable in the El Ni?o winter and tend to be barotropic features. El Ni?o event also has an influence on the eastward propa- gation of the MJO too. During El Ni?o winter, the eastward propagation of the MJO is not so regular and unanimous and there exists some eastward propagation, which is faster than that in non-ENSO case. Dynamic analyses suggest that positive SSTA(El Ni?o case) affects the atmospheric thickness over the equatorial Pacific and then the excited atmospheric wave-CISK mode is weakened, so that the intensity of MJO is reduced; the combining of the barotropic unstable mode in the atmosphere excited by external forcing(SSTA) and the original MJO may be an important reason for the MJO vertical structure tending to be barotropic during the El Ni?o.     

Surface thermal centroid anomaly of the eastern equatorial Pacific as a unified Niño index

By analyzing the variability of global SST(sea surface temperature) anomalies,we propose a unified Ni o index using the surface thermal centroid anomaly of the region along the Pacific equator embraced by the 0.7°C contour line of the standard deviation of the SST anomalies and try to unify the traditional Ni o regions into a single entity.The unified Ni o region covers almost all of the traditional Ni o regions.The anomaly time series of the averaged SST over this region are closely correlated to historical Ni o indices.The anomaly time series of the zonal and meridional thermal centroid have close correlation with historical TNI(Trans-Ni o index) indices,showing differences among El Ni o(La Ni a) events.The meridional centroid anomaly suggests that areas of maximum temperature anomaly are moving meridionally(although slightly) with synchronous zonal movement.The zonal centroid anomalies of the unified Ni o region are found helpful in the classification of the Eastern Pacific(EP)/Central Pacific(CP) types of El Ni o events.More importantly,the zonal centroid anomaly shows that warm areas might move during a single warming/cooling phase.All the current Ni o indices can be well represented by a simple linear combination of unified Ni o indices,which suggests that the thermal anomaly(SSTA) and thermal centroid location anomaly of the unified Ni o region would yield a more complete image of each El Ni o/ La Ni a event.     

Analysis of the Leading Modes of Autumn Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin

Based on daily precipitation data from 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) over the past 36 years(1980 – 2015),the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) is employed to analyze changes in autumn precipitation. We used the monthly mean reanalysis datasets of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature(SST) to investigate the possible causes of the two leading modes, based on which the predictive equations were constructed and tested. The results of the EOF analysis show that the variance contribution of the first mode is 31.07%, and the spatial distribution shows a uniform variation over the whole region. The variance contribution of the second mode is 15.02%, and the spatial distribution displays a north-south dipole pattern in the YRB. The leading mode shows a dominant interannual variation, which is mainly due to the West Pacific subtropical high and anticyclones over the Philippine islands. The SST field corresponds to the positive phase of the eastern Pacific El Ni?o and the tropical Indian Ocean dipole. The second mode may be related to the Indian Ocean-East Asian teleconnection and early withdrawal of the summer monsoon.The SST field corresponds to a weaker central Pacific El Ni?o. Through a stepwise regression analysis, SST anomalies in some areas during summer show a good predictive effect on the autumn precipitation mode in the YRB region.     

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the South China Sea during mature phase of ENSO

Based on the 18-year(1993–2010) National Centers for Environmental Prediction optimum interpolation sea surface temperature(SST) and simple ocean data assimilation datasets,this study investigated the patterns of the SST anomalies(SSTAs) that occurred in the South China Sea(SCS) during the mature phase of the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation.The most dominant characteristic was that of the outof-phase variation between southwestern and northeastern parts of the SCS,which was influenced primarily by the net surface heat flux and by horizontal thermal advection.The negative SSTA in the northeastern SCS was caused mainly by the loss of heat to the atmosphere and because of the cold-water advection from the western Pacific through the Luzon Strait during El Ni?o episodes.Conversely,it was found that the anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation and weakened western boundary current during El Ni?o episodes led to the development of the positive SSTA in the southwestern SCS.     

Variations of the Eco-Hydro-Climatic Environment Response to the 2015/2016 Super El Niño Event in the Mindanao Dome Upwelling System

A super El Ni?o event occurred in the equatorial Pacific during 2015-2016,accompanied by considerable regional eco-hydro-climatic variations within the Mindanao Dome(MD)upwelling system in the tropical western Pacific.Using timeseries of various oceanic data from 2013 to 2017,the variability of eco-hydro-climatic conditions response to the 2015/2016 super El Ni?o in the upper 300 m of the MD region are analyzed in this paper.Results showed that during the 2015/2016 super El Ni?o event,the upwelling in the MD region was greatly enhanced compared to those before and after this El Ni?o event.Upwelling Rossby waves and the massive loss of surface water in the western Pacific were suggested to be the main reasons for this enhanced upwelling.De-creased precipitation caused by changes in large-scale air-sea interaction led to the increased surface salinities.Changes in the struc-tures of the thermohaline and nutrient distribution in deep waters contributed to the increased surface chlorophyll a,suggesting a po-sitive effect of El Ni?o on surface carbon storage in the MD region.Based on the above analysis,the synopsis mechanism illustrating the eco-hydro-climatic changing processes over the MD upwelling system responding to the El Ni?o event was proposed.It high-lights the prospect for the role played by El Ni?o in local eco-hydro-climatic effects,which has further profound implications for understanding the influence of the global climate changes on the ocean carbon cycle.     

Low Frequency Oscillations of the Heat Distribution in the Global Upper Ocean Layers

The heat distributions in the upper layers of the ocean have been studied and some important low frequency oscillations （LFOs） are already found and quantified by using various characteristic factors. In this paper, the ‘heat center＇ of a sea area is defined with a simple method. Then the temperature data set of the upper layer of the global ocean （from surface down to 400 m, 1955-2003） is analyzed to detect the possible LFOs. Not only some zonal LFOs, which were reported early, but also some strong LFOs of the vertical and meridional heat distribution, which might imply some physical sense, are detected. It should be noted that the similar vertical oscillation pattern can be found in the Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean. Results from some preliminary studies show that the vertical LFO might be caused by the solar irradiance anomalies. This study may help reveal some unknown dynamical processes in the global oceans and may also benefit other related studies.     

Interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon and its relationship with latent heat flux in the Pacific Ocean

We analyzed interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon and its relationship with latent heat flux in the Pacific Ocean, using NCEP wind field and OAFlux heat flux datasets. Results indicate that South China Sea monsoon intensity had an obvious interdecadal variation with a decreasing trend. Variability of the monsoon was significantly correlated with latent heat flux in the Kuroshio area and tropical Pacific Ocean. Variability of latent heat flux in the Kuroshio area had an interdecadal increasing trend, while that in the tropical Pacific Ocean had an interdecadal decreasing trend. Latent heat flux variability in these two sea areas was used to establish a latent heat flux index, which had positive correlation with variability of the South China Sea monsoon. When the latent heat flux was 18 months ahead of the South China Sea monsoon, the correlation coefficient maximized at 0.58 (N=612), with a 99.9% significance level of 0.15. Thus, it is suggested that latent heat flux variability in the two areas contributes greatly to interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon.     

Southern ocean SST variability and its relationship with ENSO on inter-decadal time scales

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Hemisphere (0°-60°S). In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest- north-east direction. In the South Pacific Ocean, a meridional tripole structure emerges, whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability. The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer. On the inter-decadal time scales, the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980. No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, despite the reduced amplitude, the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with El Nio and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are enhanced after 1979/1980. The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980. These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southern Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s. The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.     

Forecasts of South China Sea surface temperature anomalies using the Nio indices and dipole mode index as predictors

Based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data in the South China Sea (SCS) after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST,over the period of January 1982 to October 2003,the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI),Nio1+2,Nio3.4,Nio3,and Nio4 indices with time lags of 10,3,6,5,and 6 months,respectively.Thus,a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1-12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated,using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992.The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1-12 months.The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1-12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent.The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years,in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years.We designed the two forecast models:one using both DMI and Nio indices and the other using only Nio indices without DMI,and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases.The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas.By turning off the DMI,the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS,suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area.The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI,while using both of Nio indices and DMI,the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months,suggesting that the Nio indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS.Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years (1993/94 to October 2004) by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1-12 month lead time (the persisted prediction).Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction,especially with an increased lead time (longer than 3 months).The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy,i.e.,the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas,when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level.For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts,the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2.The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1-12 month lead time are also examined.     

Precipitation Distribution of the Extended Global Spring——Autumn Monsoon and Its Possible Formation Mechanism

The global monsoon(GM) comprises two major modes, namely, the solstitial mode and equinoctial asymmetric mode.In this paper, we extend the GM domain from the tropics to the global region and name it the global spring – autumn monsoon(GSAM), which mainly indicates a spring–autumn asymmetrical precipitation pattern exhibiting annual variation. Its distribution and possible formation mechanisms are also analyzed. The GSAM domain is mainly distributed over oceans, located both in the midlatitude and tropical regions of the Pacific and Atlantic. In the GSAM domains of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, more precipitation occurs in local autumn than in local spring. The formation mechanisms of GSAM precipitation vary according to the different domains. GSAM precipitation in the tropical domain of the Eastern Hemisphere is influenced by the circulation differences between the onset and retreat periods of the Asian summer monsoon, while tropical cyclone activities cause precipitation over the South China Sea(SCS) and western North Pacific(WNP). GSAM precipitation in the tropical domain of the Western Hemisphere is influenced by the tropical asymmetrical circulation between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and the variation in the intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ) driven by the intensity of the sea surface temperature cold tongues over the equatorial eastern Pacific and eastern Atlantic. GSAM precipitation in the midlatitude domain is influenced by the differences in water vapor transportation and convergence between spring and autumn. In addition, GSAM precipitation is also affected by extratropical cyclone activities.     

The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%–15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations.The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean,which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO.In comparison,lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant,suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge.A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans.The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%–15%depending on the baroclinic modes.The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so.Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century,which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.     

Freshening of the intermediate water of the South China Sea between the 1960s and the 1980s

Variation in intermediate water salinity in the South China Sea (SCS) between the 1960s and 1980s was studied using historical hydrographic data. The results demonstrate that the water was significantly fresher in the 1980s than in the 1960s, indicating that vertical mixing at intermediate water depth was reduced in the 1980s. This was partially because of the change of the SCS meridional overturning circulation (MOC) connecting local intermediate water with deep water. Data assimilation showed a 0.5Sv (1 Sv=10 6m 3/s) reduction in the strength of the MOC, which is about one third of the mean SCS MOC. Because the SCS MOC is linked to the Pacific Ocean, such an interdecadal variation in the intermediate water SCS may reflect anthropogenic climate change in the world ocean.