Luminescence dating of the last earthquake of the Sabzevar thrust fault, NE Iran

Iran is one of the world's most tectonically active regions, yet dating past earthquakes for neotectonic studies has been limited. One of the main reasons for this is that organic material suitable for radiocarbon dating of deformed sediments is rare. We investigate the use of infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) from coarse-grained feldspars to date colluvial deposits associated with the Sabzevar thrust fault in northeastern Iran. The single-aliquot regenerative (SAR) dose measurement procedure was used for this study. The current study investigates monitoring and correcting for sensitivity changes, recovering a known laboratory dose and equivalent dose estimation using three SAR IRSL methods. It is shown that SAR has recovered a given laboratory dose using a range of preheat temperatures but D_e determination of natural samples requires its own preheat plateaus for two of these SAR methods. The SAR IRSL method provided an age of 1.7±0.3 ka for colluvium, predating the last earthquake event on the Sabzevar fault. This result suggests that this fault is likely to be responsible for an earthquake that destroyed Sabzevar city in AD 1052.     

2003年12月26日伊朗巴姆地震

2003年12月26日伊朗巴姆发生Mw6．5地震，这次地震造成30000余人死亡。依据USGS及相关网站的有关资料，介绍了2003年全球因地震死亡的人数，伊朗巴姆市概况。叙述了伊朗巴姆地震的有关参数，余震及其分布，巴姆地区的历史地震活动，地震灾害、地震烈度与地震构造等。     

起算震级与衰减不确定性校正

分析表明,起算震级Ｍ０对危险性分析结果的表现为当Ｍ０取取值不够低时,场地的危险性将被低估。此种低估影响与场地的地震危险性高低潜源距场地的距离及衰减公式的形式和标准差有关。     

基于多辛结构谱元法的保结构地震波场模拟

近年来构造高精度、高效且具有长时程跟踪能力的保结构算法已逐渐成为地震波模拟算法发展的重要方向之一. 本文基于谱元法(SEM)进行空间域离散结合新推导的三阶辛算法(NTSTO)进行时间域离散,构造了一种具有时-空保结构特性的新算法. 本文给出的多组数值试验对比结果表明,本算法无论在内存消耗、稳定性及计算耗时,还是长时程跟踪能力方面都有上佳的表现; 另外,本文给出的起伏地表多层介质模型的数值算例验证了该算法处理复杂几何形状和复杂介质时的有效性. 该多辛结构谱元法的发展将为长时程地震波传播的计算及模拟提供更为广泛而有效的选择.     

为新区划图编制所建立的地震动衰减关系

介绍了建立新一代地震区划图所采用的地震动参数衰减关系的总体思路,并从资料、衰减关系分区、衰减关系模型、回归方法、转换等方面说明了地震动参数衰减关系的建立过程,给出了我国分区地震烈度和地震动参数衰减关系结果。新的地震动衰减关系的建立,具有如下特点:一是基于更加丰富可靠的强震记录和烈度资料;二是采用了具有大震近场饱和特征的地震动衰减模型;三是采用了使结果更加稳定的分步回归方法;四是在地震动衰减关系分区时考虑了地震活动性特征。与第四代地震区划图衰减关系相比,由于地震动衰减模型的变化和高震级强震记录的增加,高震级下的峰值加速度有所降低,而中强地震区的峰值加速度则在低震级时有所提高。     

超声实验中谱比法衰减的散射与本征吸收特性

实际地球介质的弹性波衰减,无论是对于地球内部结构反演、含油气储层描述,还是对于地震岩石物理本身的基础研究而言,都十分重要.通过岩石物理实验测量岩石的弹性波衰减是相关研究的基本手段,而谱比法是一种最常用的测量方法.利用谱比法测量的弹性波衰减,简称谱比法衰减,由介质的本征吸收特性和非均质散射特性共同决定.然而,在谱比法理论中,没有将这两种衰减特性的作用区分对待.因此,实验室测量的谱比法衰减中是否含有散射特性,其散射特性是否可以忽略,常不明确.本文基于对岩石物理实验中样品波形特征的基本认识,通过能流理论描述了弹性波的本征吸收和非均质散射过程,以及对应的尾波形成机理.文章还应用能流理论测量岩石的弹性波衰减,即能流法衰减.无论是通过理论推导,还是通过实验验证,谱比法衰减与能流法衰减都显示出良好的一致性.这两种直达波衰减的一致性暗示了谱比法衰减中存在着两种衰减特性.文中还对比分析了谱比法衰减与喷射流本征衰减的实验结果,该结果同样展示了谱比法衰减中可能存在着散射特性.因此,通过能流理论,可以利用样品波形的尾波特征定性判断谱比法衰减中可能存在的散射特性.即异常明显的尾波振幅可能意味着强烈的直达波非均质散射,谱比法衰减中的散射特性因而不可忽略.

     

Response spectral relationships for rock sites derived from the component attenuation model

The seismological model was developed initially from the fundamental relationship between earthquake ground motion properties and the seismic moment generated at the source of the earthquake. Following two decades of continuous seismological research in the United States, seismological models which realistically account for both the source and path effects on the seismic shear waves have been developed and their accuracy rigorously verified (particularly in the long and medium period ranges). An important finding from the seismological research by Atkinson and Boore and their co‐investigators is the similarity of the average frequency characteristics of seismic waves generated at the source between the seemingly very different seismic environments of Eastern and Western North America (ENA and WNA, respectively). A generic definition of the average source properties of earthquakes has therefore been postulated, referred to herein as the generic source model. Further, the generic ‘hard rock’ crustal model which is characteristic of ENA and the generic ‘rock’ crustal model characteristic of WNA have been developed to combine with the generic source model, hence enabling simulations to be made of the important path‐related modifications to ground motions arising from different types of crustal rock materials. It has been found that the anelastic contribution to whole path attenuation is consistent between the ENA and WNA models, for earthquake ground motions (response spectral velocities and displacements) in the near and medium fields, indicating that differences in the ENA and WNA motions arise principally from the other forms of path‐related modifications, namely the mid‐crust amplification and the combined effect of the upper‐crust amplification and attenuation, both of which are significant only for the generic WNA ‘rock’ earthquake ground motions. This paper aims to demonstrate the effective utilization of the latest seismological model, comprising the generic source and crustal models, to develop a response spectral attenuation model for direct engineering applications. The developed attenuation model also comprises a source factor and several crustal (wave‐path modification) component factors, and thus has also been termed herein the component attenuation model (CAM). Generic attenuation relationships in CAM, which embrace both ENA and WNA conditions, have been developed using stochastic simulations. The crustal classification of a region outside North America can be based upon regional seismological and geological information. CAM is particularly useful for areas where local strong motion data are lacking for satisfactory empirical modelling. In the companion paper entitled ‘response spectrum modelling for rock sites in low and moderate seismicity regions combining velocity, displacement and acceleration predictions’, the CAM procedure has been incorporated into a response spectrum model which can be used to effectively define the seismic hazard of bedrock sites in low and moderate seismicity regions. This paper and the companion paper constitute the basis of a long‐term objective of the authors, to develop and effectively utilize the seismological model for engineering applications worldwide.     

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

International standard (ISO) on seismic actions for designing geotechnical works–An overview

The seismic performance of geotechnical works is significantly affected by ground displacement. In particular, soil–structure interaction and effects of liquefaction play major roles and pose difficult problems for engineers. An International Standard, ISO23469, is being developed for addressing these issues in a systematic manner within a consistent framework. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of this International Standard.In this International Standard, the seismic actions are determined through two stages. The first stage determines basic seismic action variables, including the earthquake ground motion at the site, the potential for earthquake-associated phenomena such as liquefaction and induced lateral ground displacement. These basic variables are used, in the second stage, for specifying the seismic actions for designing geotechnical works. In the second stage, the soil–structure interaction plays a major role. Types of analyses are classified based on a combination of static/dynamic analyses and the procedure for soil–structure interaction classified as follows:

– simplified: soil–structure interaction of a global system is modeled as an action on a substructure;

– detailed: soil–structure interaction of a global system is modeled as a coupled system.

Reservoir-induced seismicity in Karun III dam (Southwestern Iran)

Statistical analyses of the Karun III reservoir seismicity reveal a remarkable correlation between seismicity rate and water-level harmonic changes. It seems that seismicity in this dam depends on rapid water-level changes. The three biggest earthquakes of Karun III, measuring 4, 4.1, and 4.3 on the Richter scale (ML), occurred after two stages of rapid filling of the dam on March 22, 2005 and May 12, 2006. These earthquakes happened when the water reached the maximum operational level. Since the beginning of filling the reservoir on November 8, 2004 until March, 2006, most reservoir-induced seismicity has been localized in three main clusters. The majority of the earthquakes occurred in the frontal anticline of Keyf Malek; the second and third clusters happened near Karun Blind Fault (KBF) and Mountain Front Fault (MFF), respectively. Filling Karun III reservoir immediately led to an increase in the occurrence of earthquakes. Further, following abrupt water-level changes, a considerable increase in the number of earthquakes is observed. Finally, in terms of seismicity rate, vertical and horizontal migration, magnitude, and distance, the earthquakes of Karun III behave differently.     

Accurate estimation of acoustic impedance based on spectral inversion

Acoustic impedance is one of the best attributes for seismic interpretation and reservoir characterisation. We present an approach for estimating acoustic impedance accurately from a band‐limited and noisy seismic data. The approach is composed of two stages: inverting for reflectivity from seismic data and then estimating impedance from the reflectivity inverted in the first stage. For the first stage, we achieve a two‐step spectral inversion that locates the positions of reflection coefficients in the first step and determines the amplitudes of the reflection coefficients in the second step under the constraints of the positions located in the first step. For the second stage, we construct an iterative impedance estimation algorithm based on reflectivity. In each iteration, the iterative impedance estimation algorithm estimates the absolute acoustic impedance based on an initial acoustic impedance model that is given by summing the high‐frequency component of acoustic impedance estimated at the last iteration and a low‐frequency component determined in advance using other data. The known low‐frequency component is used to restrict the acoustic impedance variation tendency in each iteration. Examples using one‐ and two‐dimensional synthetic and field seismic data show that the approach is flexible and superior to the conventional spectral inversion and recursive inversion methods for generating more accurate acoustic impedance models.     

利用互相关函数求地震波衰减

与传统利用单事件波形求介质衰减的方法不同,我们提出一种以一系列事件为源,以源与远处记录波形的互相关函数为基础计算介质品质因子的方法.依据野外现场实验的数据,我们分别以单次和多次激发为源,讨论了事件波形和互相关函数波形的振幅变化及相应的介质品质因子,结果发现,与事件波形一样,互相关函数波形也可以用于计算介质的衰减系数.计算结果表明：（1）实验场地浅层介质在原场条件下的品质因子Q值在40左右;（2）互相关函数的最大幅度与事件波形的振幅随距离具有相同的衰减规律.     

浅析山西太原东山遥测地震台记录地震的波形特征

为弄清山西太原东山遥测地震台模拟记录与数字记录的特点,对1996年至2001年的模拟记录和2001年至2003年5月的数字记录资料进行了统计分析,在选取的-≤5.0 s的近台记录波形中,找出了具有代表性的3种地震波形.指出,准确识别山西太原东山遥测地震台的小震活动,对监视太原盆地的地震活动大有裨益.     

Seismicity variations in the Makran region of Pakistan and Iran: Relation to great earthquakes

Teleseismic activity in the Makran region of southeastern Iran and southwestern Pakistan prior to the great earthquake (M_s=8) of 1945 can be characterized in terms of two stages. First, during the period 30 (or more) to 10 years prior to the main event, the frequency of occurrence of moderate to large earthquakes was relatively high in the region between the impending rupture zone and the volcanic arc to the northwest. These events probably occurred near the down-dip limit of seismic activity within the subducted slab. Second, activity was concentrated along the coast during the ten years immediately preceding the great earthquake and most of this activity was confined to the vicinity of the epicenter of the 1945 earthquake. These patterns are similar in some respects to those observed prior to some large earthquakes in other parts of the world.Three observations concerning the pre-1945 seismicity suggest it was associated with the preparation for rupture of the zone that eventually broke during the great earthquake in 1945: (1) The activity before 1945 is located either within the 1945 rupture zone or between this zone and the volcanic arc to the northwest; (2) No activity of similar magnitude and occurrence rate is observed elsewhere along the Makran plate boundary; and (3) The region that was active prior to 1945 has been relatively quiet since the decline in aftershock activity associated with the 1945 shock. The current quiescence may be related to the release of stress during the 1945 earthquake.Recent seismicity in the region west of that affected prior to 1945 suggests that this western region may be the site of the next large earthquake. Events along the coast are grouped at both ends of a seismically quiet zone, producing a distribution similar to the donut pattern identified by Mogi. In addition, one moderate-magnitude earthquake occurred within the subducted slab to the northwest of the donut pattern along the coast. This moderate-magnitude earthquake, the first to occur in the region immediately west of the 1945 rupture zone since the advent of instrumental recording, may be analogous to the activity of stage one associated with the 1945 earthquake. While by no means providing conclusive evidence of an impending earthquake, the characteristic patterns identified in the recent seismicity indicate that this region should be closely monitored in the future.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution Number 2853.     

地震损失概率预测研究中的地震危险性分析方法探讨

本文基于假定未来某段时间内研究地区或场地上地震烈度影响事件遵从贝努利(Bernoulli)随机独立试验过程，利用历史地震烈度-额度统计关系，提出了一种适用于地震损失概率预测的危险性分析方法。     

Empirical model for estimating Fourier amplitude spectra of ground acceleration in Taiwan region

A collection of ground‐motion recordings (1070 acceleration records) of moderate (5.1⩽M_L⩽6.5) earthquakes obtained during the execution of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) since 1991 was used to study source scaling model and attenuation relations for a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and distances and to verify the models developed recently for the Taiwan region. The results of the analysis reveal that the acceleration spectra of the most significant part of the records, starting from S‐wave arrival, can be modelled accurately using the Brune's ω‐squared source model with magnitude‐dependent stress parameter Δσ, that should be determined using the recently proposed regional relationships between magnitude (M_L) and seismic moment (M₀) and between M₀ and Δσ. The anelastic attenuation Q of spectral amplitudes with distance may be described as Q=225 ƒ^1.1 both for deep (depth more than 35 km) and shallow earthquakes. The source scaling and attenuation models allow a satisfactory prediction of the peak ground acceleration for magnitudes 5.1⩽M⩽6.5 and distances up to about 200 km in the Taiwan region, and may be useful for seismic hazard assessment. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A framework for a seismic risk model for Greater Cairo

Following the adverse effects caused by the moderate M_s 5.4 event of October 1992, the need to model the risk from earthquakes occurring in or near Cairo was shown to be an essential tool to offset this threat in the future. To provide the necessary elements for a risk model, this paper describes a methodology for developing a ground-shaking model as well as an inventory database for the city. In the first part, a scheme is followed to integrate data on geological structures, seismic sources, seismicity and surface soil conditions to build-up an event-based hazard model. In the second part, a brief review of the history of seismic provisions in Egyptian codes is presented, and a detailed assessment of local maps and information is supplemented by results from street surveys to obtain building stock data and geographical resolutions. On the basis of these studies, the city is divided into a number of census-tracts, or geo-codes, of classified building and soil characteristics, representing a fundamental step towards the development of a full loss model.     

An energy-based envelope function for the stochastic simulation of earthquake accelerograms

An energy-based envelope function is developed for use in the stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motion. The envelope function is directly related to the Arias intensity of the ground motion as well to the manner in which this Arias intensity is built-up over time. It is shown that this build-up, represented by a Husid plot, can be very well modelled using a simple lognormal distribution. The proposed envelope makes use of parameters that are commonly available in seismic design situations, either following a deterministic scenario-type analysis or following a more comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), either in terms of Arias intensity or the more common spectral acceleration. The shape parameters of the envelope function are estimated following the calculation of the analytic envelopes for a large number of records from PEER Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) database. The envelope may also be used to predict the distribution of peak ground acceleration values corresponding to an earthquake scenario. The distribution thus obtained is remarkably consistent with those of the recent NGA models.     

关于核电厂选址工作中地震动衰减关系的问题

在由地震动加速度资料拟合加速度衰减关系时应注意资料的场地特征及区域代表性、变量定义的一致及原始数据的分布范围等。利用参考地区的烈度及加速度衰减关系和工作地区的烈度衰减关系用转换方法求工作地区的加速度衰减关系时,只有在特定情况下才能用解析方法转换,一般宜采用数值方法。建议在核电厂选址工作中,对存在烈度异常等情况及有特大历史地震时要考虑特定地震的衰减特征     

A preliminary empirical model for frequency-dependent attenuation of Fourier amplitude spectra In Serbia from the Vrancea earthquakes

We present the frequency-dependent attenuation model for Fourier amplitude spectra of strong earthquake ground motion in Serbia from intermediate depth earthquakes in the Vrancea source zone in Romania. The development of this type of scaling is the essential first step toward developing the corresponding attenuation and scaling equations for pseudo relative velocity spectra (PSV), which are necessary for seismic macro- and microzoning in the territory of Serbia. Such scaling is necessary because the Vrancea source zone produces large earthquakes with shaking that attenuates differently from the local earthquakes in Serbia. Development of such a scaling model is associated with several difficulties, the principal one being the lack of recorded strong motion accelerograms at epicentral distances exceeding 300 km. To reduce uncertainties with such scaling, we require our preliminary scaling equations to be consistent with independent estimates of seismic moment, stress drop, and radiated wave energy. In the future, when the recorded strong motion data from Vrancea earthquakes increases several-fold of what it is today, it will become possible to perform this analysis again, thus leading to more reliable and permanent scaling estimates.