On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula

The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M _w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M _w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities.     

强震的孕育规律与孕震模式

针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,发现强震孕育过程的指数规律：sf（k）=1.48ksc,其中sf（k）和sc分别为第k个锁固体断裂点与第一个锁固段膨胀起点对应的累加Be-nioff应变,可以利用锁固段在其变形膨胀点处开始发生的震群事件（加速性地震活动前兆）预测未来大震,并给出了强震四要素相关预测方法。通过对诸多历史强震（如邢台地震、海城地震、汶川地震、玉树地震等）的回溯性检验分析表明：强震可以预测,且其孕震过程都遵循着上述简单的共性力学规律。在此基础上,归纳出4种典型强震的孕震模式,即大震震级呈＂大—小—大＂型,大震震级呈连续上升型,锁固段快速连续破裂型与标准型。此外,根据相关强震预测理论方法,对有关抗震救灾未来研究的方向提出如下建议：建议加强活动断裂位置精确定位、性质判定的地震地质研究,并开展孕震区锁固段（闭锁区域）判识的地质与地球物理研究等。     

龙山门断裂带活动特征与工程区域地壳稳定性评价理论

2008年5月12日发生的里氏8.0级汶川地震处于龙门山造山带与四川盆地的构造边界上。350km长的地表破裂带呈右行左阶雁行排列在具有逆冲和右行走滑性质的汶川茂县青川、映秀北川和江油都江堰3条断层带上。下地壳的韧性流动伴随中地壳韧-脆性剪切带应力和应变的积累,产生上地壳脆性发震断层,并控制地表破裂带和滑坡的分布。震源出现在上地壳脆性断层与中地壳脆-韧性剪切带的交汇部位。〖KG2〗以汶川地震为例,结合板内地震基本特征,提出引入大陆动力学理论完善工程区域稳定性理论基础,构建基于板块学说、地质力学和大陆动力学理论的相互补充的工程区域稳定性评价体系;对活断层与地震活动性预测提出见解,强调仅仅从活断层的存在及其活动强度来预测地震活动性与强度是远远不够甚至是错误的,必须将下地壳、中地壳和上地壳结构作为一个整体加以研究和判别;提出工程区域地壳稳定性评价指标体系,指出了大陆内部安全岛划分应采用的核心指标。     

Probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia

The frequency–magnitude distributions of earthquakes are used in this study to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters for individual earthquake source zones within the Mainland Southeast Asia. For this purpose, 13 earthquake source zones are newly defined based on the most recent geological, tectonic, and seismicity data. A homogeneous and complete seismicity database covering the period from 1964 to 2010 is prepared for this region and then used for the estimation of the constants, a and b, of the frequency–magnitude distributions. These constants are then applied to evaluate the most probable largest magnitude, the mean return period, and the probability of earthquake of different magnitudes in different time spans. The results clearly show that zones A, B, and E have the high probability for the earthquake occurrence comparing with the other seismic zones. All seismic source zones have 100 % probability that the earthquake with magnitude ≤6.0 generates in the next 25 years. For the Sagaing Fault Zone (zones C), the next Mw 7.2–7.5 earthquake may generate in this zone within the next two decades and should be aware of the prospective Mw 8.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, in Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A), an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 can possibly occur in every 50 years. Since an earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 was recorded in this region in 2004, there is a possibility of another Mw 9.0 earthquake within the next 50 years.     

A database for worldwide seismicity quantification

The first step in a seismicity analysis usually consists of defining the seismogenic units, seismic zones or individual faults. The worldwide delimitation of these zones involves an enormous effort and is often rather subjective. Also, a complete recording of faults will not be available for a long time yet. The seismicity model presented in this paper therefore is not based on individually defined seismic zones but rather on the assumption that each point in a global 1/2° grid of coordinates represents a potential earthquake source. The corresponding seismogenic parameters are allocated to each of these points. The earthquake occurrence frequency, one of the most important parameters, is determined purely statistically by appropriately spreading out the positions of past occurrences. All the other significant seismicity characteristics, such as magnitude-frequency relations, maximum possible magnitude and attenuation laws including the dependence on focal depth are determined in a global 1/2° grid of co-ordinates. This method of interpreting seismicity data allows us to establish a transparent, sufficiently precise representation of seismic hazard which is ideally suited for computer-aided risk analyses.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the sultanate of Oman

This study presents the results of the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the framework of logic tree for Oman. The earthquake catalogue was homogenized, declustered, and used to define seismotectonic source model that characterizes the seismicity of Oman. Two seismic source models were used in the current study; the first consists of 26 seismic source zones, while the second is expressing the alternative view that seismicity is uniform along the entire Makran and Zagros zones. The recurrence parameters for all the seismogenic zones were determined using the doubly bounded exponential distribution except the zones of Makran, which were modelled using the characteristic distribution. Maximum earthquakes were determined and the horizontal ground accelerations in terms of geometric mean were calculated using ground-motion prediction relationships developed based upon seismic data obtained from active tectonic environments similar to those surrounding Oman. The alternative seismotectonic source models, maximum magnitude, and ground-motion prediction relationships were weighted and used to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Hazard maps at rock sites were produced for 5?% damped spectral acceleration (SA) values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0?s spectral periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for return periods of 475 and 2,475?years. The highest hazard is found in Khasab City with maximum SA at 0.2?s spectral period reaching 243 and 397?cm/s² for return periods 475 and 2,475 years, respectively. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the choice of seismic source model and the ground-motion prediction equation influences the results most.     

Improved earthquake locations in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone

In estimating the likelihood of an earthquake hazard for a seismically active region, information on the geometry of the potential source is important in quantifying the seismic hazard. The damage from an earthquake varies spatially and is governed by the fault geometry and lithology. As earthquake damage is amplified by guided seismic waves along fault zones, it is important to delineate the disposition of the fault zones by precisely determined hypocentral parameters. We used the double difference (DD) algorithm to relocate earthquakes in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone (KWSZ) region, with the P- and S-wave catalog data from relative arrival time pairs constituting the input. A significant improvement in the hypocentral estimates was achieved, with the epicentral errors <30 m and focal depth errors <75 m i.e. errors have been significantly reduced by an order of magnitude from the parameters determined by HYPO71. The earthquake activity defines three different fault segments. The seismogenic volume is shallower in the south by 3 km, with seismicity in the north extending to a depth of 11 km while in the south the deepest seismicity observed is at a depth of 8 km. By resolving the structure of seismicity in greater detail, we address the salient issues related to the seismotectonics of this region.     

Systematization of active faults for the assessment of the seismic hazard

A systematization of active faults has been developed based on the progress of scientists from the leading countries in the world in the study of seismotectonics and seismic hazard problems. It is underlain by the concept of the fault-block structure of the geological-geophysical environment governed by the interaction of differently oriented active faults, which are divided into two groups—seismogenic and nonseismogenic faults. In seismogenic fault zones, the tectonic stress accumulated is relieved by means of strong earthquakes. Nonseismogenic fault zones are characterized by creep displacement or short-term, oscillatory, and reciprocal movements, which are referred to local superintense deformations of the Earth’s crust (according to the terminology used by Yu.O. Kuz’min). For a situation when a strong earthquake happens, a subgroup of seismodistributing faults has been identified that surround the seismic source and affect the distribution of the seismic waves and, as a consequence, the pattern of the propagation of the coseismic deformations in the fault-block environment. Seismodistributing faults are divided into transit and sealing faults. Along transit faults, secondary coseismic effects (landfalls, landslides, ground fractures, liquefaction, etc) are intensified during earthquakes. In the case of sealing faults, enhancement of the coseismic effects can be observed on the disjunctive limb nearest to the epicenter, whereas, on the opposite limb, the intensity of such effects appreciably decreases. Seismogenic faults or their systems are associated with zones of earthquake source origination (ESO), which include concentrated seismicity regions. In such zones, each earthquake source is related to the evolution of a fault system. ESO zones also contain individual seismogenic sources being focuses of strong earthquakes with M of ≥5.5 in the form of ruptures, which can be graphically represented in 2D or 3D as a surface projection of the source. Depending on the type of data based on which they are identified, individual seismogenic sources are divided into geological-geophysical and macroseismic sources. The systematization presented is the theoretical basis for and the concept of the relational database that is being developed by the authors as an information system for the generation of seismotectonic GIS projects required for the subsequent analysis of the seismic hazard and the assessment of the probability of the origination of macroseismic earthquake effects in a predetermined location.     

公元600年秦陇地震发震构造分析及考证研究

据史料记载,公元600年秦陇地区发生了一次大地震。关于此次地震的震中位置、震级、震中烈度和发震构造长期存在争议。根据在陇县固关一带发现的地震崩塌体,同时结合史料考证、卫星影像判读、野外调查、探槽开挖、年龄测试等手段,研究认为:公元600年秦陇地震的发震构造为六盘山东麓断裂南段固关段;秦陇地震震中在陇县固关镇一带,震级为6$ {}^{3}\!\!\diagup\!\!{}_{4}\; $级,震中烈度为Ⅸ度。该地震的研究对于六盘山地区地震危险性评估和青藏块体北东向扩展的动力学过程理解有重要意义。      

Seismic hazard map of Coimbatore using subsurface fault rupture

This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories: one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M _w ) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01° and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones, as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources.     

孕震构造块体与相应地震区划分方法

可靠地划分地震区可奠定地震预测与地震危险性评价的地质基础,具有十分重要的意义。笔者等通过研究分析指出板内孕震构造块体侧向边界可由区域性大断层或由区域性大断层与板块边界界定,底边界为康拉德面或低速高导层;板间孕震构造块体为俯冲板块,可由区域性大断层和(或)板块边界约束;在同一个孕震构造块体和同一轮地震周期的地震具有内在联系。因此,地震区可定义为代表相应孕震构造块体地震活动的区域,其可表征该块体内源自锁固段破裂的地震活动。基于笔者等提出的孕震构造块体和相应地震区边界确定原则,把全球两大地震带(环太平洋地震带和欧亚地震带)划分为62个地震区;每个地震区的分区方案均通过了多锁固段脆性破裂理论的检验,这说明方案可靠。进而,笔者等归纳总结了地震区划分方法。     

地震孕育机制与破裂机制的研究

在理论上得出地震孕育发生的普遍物理机制是:地震前孕震区在垂直向会逐步形成、发展弹性的“拉疏隆起—压缩凹陷”的不稳结构,在水平向也多会形成对称相间分布的两个弹性压缩区及两个弹性拉疏区。应变的“压缩区与拉疏区同时产生、对应存在、共为一体”的这种双向应变结构是地壳构造运动中形成孕震体与非孕震体的根本区别,也是能用以首先找到孕震地区的主要依据;地震的破裂机制是:孕震体形成的双向应变结构,构成了应力集中后的失稳与剪切破裂的必要条件,当初始破裂后,就会引起压缩区与拉疏区发生逆转性的弹性膨胀与收缩的相互配合而不断提供位错空间,从而能使应力与破裂快速地传递与扩张。这一地震孕育与破裂机制的认识,几乎能解释绝大多数的地震前兆现象及震时震后的冒砂、冒水与断层的破裂、错动现象。     

Cyclic behavior of seismogenic sources in India and use of ANN for its prediction

Endeavors to realistically model physical processes responsible for earthquake occurrence and sustained large uncertainties in the results have lead to the application of techniques like artificial neural network for estimation of rate/probability of earthquake occurrence in future. The earthquake occurrence in India has been re-visited and artificial neural networks have been applied to learn the cyclic behavior of seismicity in the independent seismogenic sources to predict their future trends. As a prerequisite, the whole country has been divided into 24 seismogenic sources for which the seismicity cycles were studied. Their cyclic behavior has been captured in form of four stages of earthquake occurrence and the future trends have been predicted using ANN. To validate the trained ANN model, testing has been carried out in two ways: first, by giving the samples that are not used in training (NT) and second, by giving the total samples (T). As a method of testing, standard errors and correlation coefficients between the network output patterns and observed patterns of the testing sample given were considered. The outcome of the ANN is used to interpret the future seismicity of each of the 24 seismogenic zones in terms of various stages of the future seismicity cycles.     

Seismicity of Sinai Peninsula, Egypt

The Sinai Peninsula has a triangular shape between the African and Arabian Plates and is bounded from the western and eastern borders by the Gulf of Suez and Gulf of Aqaba–Dead Sea rift systems, respectively. It is affected by strong and destructive earthquakes (e.g., March 31, 1969 and November 22, 1995) and moderate earthquakes (m _b?>?5) throughout its history. After the installation of the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN), a great number of earthquakes has been recorded within and around Sinai. Consequently, the seismogenic source zones and seismotectonic behavior can be clearly identified. Available data, including both historical and instrumental (1900–1997), have been collected from national and international data centers. While the data from 1998 till December 2007 are gathered from ENSN bulletins. The seismogenic source zones that might affect Sinai Peninsula are defined more precisely in this work depending on the distribution of earthquakes, seismicity rate (a value), b value, and fault plane solution of the major earthquakes. In addition, the type of faults prevailed and characterized these zones. It is concluded that the Gulf of Aqaba zone–Dead Sea transform zone, Gulf of Suez rift zone, Cairo–Suez District zone, and Eastern Mediterranean dislocation zone represent the major effective zones for Sinai. Furthermore, there are two local seismic zones passing through Sinai contributing to the earthquake activities of Sinai, these are the Negev shear zone and Central Sinai fault (Themed fault) zone. The source parameters, a and b values, and the maximum expected moment magnitude have been determined for each of these zones. These results will contribute to a great extent in the seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation studies for Sinai Peninsula to protect the developmental projects.     

Seismic hazard at a triple plate junction: the state of Chiapas (México)

The state of Chiapas (SE México) conforms a territory of complex tectonics and high seismic activity. The interaction among the Cocos, North American and Caribbean tectonic plates, as well as the active crustal deformation inside Chiapas, determines a variety of seismogenic sources of distinct characteristics and particular strong ground motion attenuation. This situation makes the assessment of seismic hazard in the region a challenging task. In this work, we follow the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, starting from the compilation of an earthquake catalogue, and the definition of seismogenic source-zones based on the particular seismotectonics of the region: plate-subduction-related sources (interface and intraslab zones), active crustal deformation zones and the shear zone between the North American and Caribbean plates formed by the Motagua, Polochic and Ixcán faults. The latter source is modelled in two different configurations: one single source-zone and three distinct ones. We select three ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) recommended for South and Central America, plus two Mexican ones. We combine the GMPEs with the source-zone models in a logic tree scheme and produce hazard maps in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for the 500-, 1000- and 2500-year return periods, as well as uniform hazard spectra for the towns of Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Tapachula and San Cristóbal. We obtain higher values in comparison with previous seismic hazard studies and particularly much higher than the output of the Prodisis v.2.3 software for seismic design in México. Our results are consistent with those of neighbouring Guatemala obtained in a recent study for Central America.

     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 1): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by seismic data, gravity and thermal modeling

The Great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 with an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0 is the most destructive earthquake in European history, yet the source region remains enigmatic. Recent geophysical data provide compelling evidence for an active east dipping subduction zone beneath the nearby Gibraltar Arc. Marine seismic data in the Gulf of Cadiz image active thrust faults in an accretionary wedge, above an east dipping decollement and an eastward dipping basement. Tomographic and other data support subduction and rollback of a narrow slab of oceanic lithosphere beneath the westward advancing Gibraltar block.Although, no instrumentally recorded seismicity has been documented for the subduction interface, we propose the hypothesis that this shallow east dipping fault plane is locked and capable of generating great earthquakes (like the Nankai or Cascadia seismogenic zones). We further propose this east dipping fault plane to be a candidate source for the Great Lisbon earthquake of 1755. In this paper we use all available geophysical data on the deep structure of the Gulf of Cadiz–Gibraltar region for the purpose of constraining the 3-D geometry of this potentially seismogenic fault plane. To this end, we use new depth processed seismic data, have interpreted all available published and unpublished time sections, examine the distribution of hypocenters and perform 2-D gravity modeling. Finally, a finite-element model of the forearc thermal structure is constructed to determine the temperature distribution along the fault interface and thus the thermally predicted updip and downdip limits of the seismogenic zone.     

Temporal changes in the cumulative piecewise gradient of a variant of the Gutenberg–Richter relationship,and the imminence of extreme events

It is generally found that the relative frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes in seismogenic zones have a power law distribution. For a long-term dataset, the overall slope of this logarithmically transformed distribution is usually indicated by a best-fit straight line and expressed as a b-value. This slope is stable and normally lies between 0.8 and 1.2, the actual value depending on the region examined, and the threshold selected for data completeness. The linearity of the distribution can be used to make statistical inferences about the potential for larger events over the long run, and with appropriate reservations, may even be extrapolated to magnitudes that are beyond recent experience. We suggest the same information can also be viewed over shorter intervals in terms of an empirical piecewise distribution, with relative frequencies of occurrence at adjacent magnitude steps controlling the local slope of the distribution. An emergence, through time, of an excess number of lower magnitude earthquakes causes temporal changes to appear in the low-end piecewise gradients of this distribution. A marked excursion away from an overall uniform trend for the particular zone may be indicative of an imminent, larger event. On two separate occasions, in 1982 and 1997, such temporal variations were seen in the magnitude distributions of sequences of events near Tobago, West Indies, and used to anticipate subsequent damaging mainshocks. The recognition of temporal departures from overall linearity of the magnitude–frequency relation, in a suitable dataset, may thus provide an evidential element that can contribute to earthquake forecasting. This phenomenological approach was used in the analysis of the NEIC global dataset of earthquakes of magnitude 6.1 and bigger, for the period 1973–2003, to explore its wider applicability. Trends in the piecewise gradients of the global data were interpreted as pointing to an imminent great earthquake, perhaps exceeding magnitude 8.5; such an event did occur shortly afterwards in the form of the great Sumatran earthquake of 2004/12/26. Following that event, global magnitude production continued to exhibit sharp imbalances in the lower magnitude bins, indicating that another similar event was likely. The second Sumatran earthquake on 2005/03/28 satisfied that projection. Since that time, a magnitude production imbalance persists in the global dataset suggesting the system could be poised to output an earthquake (or earthquakes) in the magnitude range 8.6–9.0 or even greater. This contribution describes the piecewise gradient approach and examines its application to global earthquake data.     

中国活动构造与地震活动

文中研究了中国活动构造与地震活动的关系 ,包括活动断裂、活动褶皱、活动盆地和活动块体与地震活动的关系。全部 8级、绝大部分 7～ 7.9级地震均发生在活动块体边界活动构造带内 ;但对内部有次级活动构造的块体而言 ,少数 7～ 7.9级地震和部分 6～ 6 .9级地震也可能发生在块体内部的活动构造带上。大地震与活动断裂、活动褶皱和活动盆地的关系十分紧密 ,70多次 7级以上地震的同震破裂带及其位移参数与活动构造完全一致 ,7～ 8级地震均发生在活动断裂、活动褶皱和活动盆地带内 ,仅个别地震由于发生在高原和高山区 ,情况不明 ,6～ 6 .9级地震则大约有 5 %～ 15 %发生在活动构造带外或者情况不明。由于中国各断块区应力环境的差别 ,各区活动构造变形和地震发震构造类型也有所不同 ,文中对不同构造区走滑型 ,逆断裂褶皱型和正断裂拉张型活动构造和地震发震构造模型作了讨论。     

Fractal dimension and <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value mapping in the Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone

The Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone is seismically one of the most active and complex subduction zones that produced the 26 December 2004 mega thrust earthquake (Mw 9.3) and large number of aftershocks. About 8,000 earthquakes, including more than 3,000 aftershocks (M ≥ 4.5) of the 2004 earthquake, recorded during the period 1964–2007, are relocated by the EHB method. We have analysed this large data set to map fractal correlation dimension (Dc) and frequency-magnitude relation (b-value) characteristics of the seismogenic structures of this ~3,000-km-long mega thrust subduction zone in south-east Asia. The maps revealed the seismic characteristics of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java trenches, West Andaman fault (WAF), Andaman Sea Ridge (ASR), Sumatra and Java fault systems. Prominent N–S to NW–SE to E–W trending fractal dimension contours all along the subduction zone with Dc between 0.6 and 1.4 indicate that the epicentres mostly follow linear features of the major seismogenic structures. Within these major contours, several pockets of close contours with Dc ~ 0.2 to 0.6 are identified as zones of epicentre clusters and are inferred to the fault intersections as well as asperity zones along the fault systems in the fore arc. A spatial variation in the b-value (1.2–1.5) is also observed along the subduction zone with several pockets of lower b-values (1.2–1.3). The smaller b-value zones are corroborated with lower Dc (0.5–0.9), implying a positive correlation. These zones are identified to be the zones of more stress or asperity where rupture nucleation of intermediate to strong magnitude earthquakes occurred.