Tide gauge records,water level rise,and subsidence in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Long-term water level changes in the northern Gulf of Mexico were examined using tide gauge records for this century. Strong coherence exists between the annual mean water changes at Galveston, Texas, and (1) the relatively geologically-stable west coast of Florida, (2) global mean sea level, and 93) the subsiding Louisiana coast. Water levels at the Galveston gauge, one of the longest records (81 yr), have risen steadily, but not accelerated over the long-term. The apparent acceleration of water rise in the recent two decades is within the historical pattern, and is probably driven by regional or global, but not local climatic factors. Because eustatic sea level has risen steadily this century, the analysis supports the conclusion that regional geologic subsidence has not varied significantly over the tide gauge record (1909–1988). Variations in the estimates of subsidence in the surface layers are generally consistent with the generally accepted understanding of the geology of deltaic processes on this coast.     

Some characteristics of geomagnetic reversals inferred from detailed volcanic records

The transitional virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) of the five most detailed records lie within the longitudinal bands of America, western Europe and eastern Asia. This distribution does not support the hypothesis of a direct link with heterogeneities of the lower mantle underneath Americas and eastern Asia. A similar distribution of VGPs persists by adding less detailed records and show similarities with the distribution of maximum inclination anomalies predicted by time-averaged field models. However, the two databases are far too limited to infer any recurrence of non-dipole components during reversals. Clusters of VGPs are observed in most records at various geographical locations without preference for specific longitudes, which most likely result from intense volcanism during short time periods rather than from transitional dipolar states.     

Tectonic plate motion and deformation inferred from very long baseline interferometry

We inverted 76 rates of change of baseline lengths measured with very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) during the period 1979–1989 to estimate the parameters of motions of the North American (noam) and Eurasian (eura) plates relative to the Pacific (pcfc) plate. We considered two types of plate motion models, namely, rigid and non-rigid models. In the non-rigid models, we simultaneously determined the non-rigid motions of several stations near plate boundaries due to intraplate deformation. Intraplate deformation in the regions far away from plate boundaries is assumed to be negligible.Among several models considered, a non-rigid model called M2 is found to fit most closely to the observed data. In this model, six stations are assumed to be capable of the non-rigid motion; those are goldvenu, hatcreek, mojave12, ovro 130 and vndnberg, in the southwestern United States and kashima, in Japan. M2 gives parameter sets of 0.827 ± 0.035°/m.y., about 50.5 ± 1.2°N, 78.5 ± 5.3°W and 0.889 ± 0.049°/m.y., about 59.7 ± 1.9°N, 85.1 ± 7.4 °W, representing the noam-pcfc and eura-pcfc relative motions. The plate motion parameters of M2 are nearly identical to those of the newest global-scale plate motion model nuvel-1. The noam-pcfc and eura-pcfc rotation rates of M2 respectively deviate only 0.044°/m.y. and 0.010°/m.y. from those of nuvel-1 (these deviations are only about 6% and 1%, respectively, of the rotation rates themselves). The noam-pcfc and eura-pcfc poles of M2 both lie only 2° from those of nuvel-1 (within a 2σ error ellipse of each pole). nuvel-1 is determined from spreading rates at mid-ocean ridges, azimuths of transform faults and earthquake slip vectors. Since the spreading rates are estimated from marine magnetic anomalies integrated over a geological timescale, nuvel-1 gives the plate motions averaged over this timescale. Thus, we may conclude that there is no appreciable difference between the plate motions averaged over a geological timescale (millions of years) and those in a recent short period ( ~ 10 yr).M2 also gives the horizontal non-rigid motions of VLBI stations in the southwestern United States at rates of 6–9 mm/yr and roughly in opposite direction to the rigid motion of each station associated with plate motion. hatcreek, located near the northern part of the Basin and Range Province (B&R), also shows additional westward motion of about 9 mm/yr, suggesting crustal stretching in the northern B&R. The US VLBI stations show subsidence at rates of about 5–7 mm/yr, except for goldvenu and ovro 130, whose subsidence is negligible. The Japanese VLBI station, kashima, has a horizontal non-rigid motion of about 20 mm/yr in the west-northwest direction, roughly opposite to the direction of the rigid motion. kashima also shows subsidence at a rate of about 12 mm/yr, which is larger than that deduced from geodetic data but consistent with the result from GPS.     

Social and economic vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise and extreme flooding

This paper assesses the socioeconomic consequences of extreme coastal flooding events. Wealth and income impacts associated with different social groups in coastal communities in Israel are estimated. A range of coastal flood hazard zones based on different scenarios are identified. These are superimposed on a composite social vulnerability index to highlight the spatial variation in the socioeconomic structure of those areas exposed to flooding. Economic vulnerability is captured by the exposure of wealth and income. For the former, we correlate the distribution of housing stock at risk with the socioeconomic characteristics of threatened populations. We also estimate the value of residential assets exposed under the different scenarios. For the latter, we calculate the observed change in income distribution of the population under threat of inundation. We interpret the change in income distribution as an indicator of recovery potential.     

Inundation,sea-level rise and transition from Neolithic to Bronze Age cultures,Yangtze Delta,China

Petrological, faunal and floral information derived from a new drill core taken in the Yangtze delta, coupled with data from borings recovered earlier, record a marked transition to warmer, wetter conditions which resulted in widespread inundation of the delta about 4000 years ago. Also identified for that time on the delta plain is a major discontinuity between the Neolithic Liangzhu and Bronze age Maqiao cultures. The cultural discontinuity is indicated by: (1) absence of in situ material between the two at ∼4000 yr B.P.; (2) missing Maqiao material in strata above many Liangzhu sites; (3) less sophisticated Maqiao material than in the older Neolithic phase; and (4) notably fewer Maqiao sites in more restricted areas of the delta plain. It is of note that the change from the Liangzhu to the younger Maqiao does not show an increasingly complex cultural advancement of the type generally associated with the foundation of Chinese civilization. We propose that this cultural discontinuity was caused by the interplay of increased environmental stress and new population migrations into the delta. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Phase relations inferred from field data for mn pyroxenes and pyroxenoids

Electron microprobe analysis of manganese silicates from Balmat, N.Y., has helped elucidate phase relations for Mn-bearing pyroxenes and pyroxenoids. A compilation of these data along with published and unpublished analyses for phases plotting on the CaSiO₃-MgSiO₃-MnSiO₃ and CaSiO₃-FeSiO₃-MnSiO₃ faces of the RSiO₃ tetrahedron has constrained the subsolidus phase relations. For the system CaSiO₃-FeSiO₃-MnSiO₃, the compositional gaps between bustamite/hedenbergite, bustamite/ rhodonite and rhodonite/pyroxmangite are constrained for middle-upper amphibolite facies conditions and extensive solid solutions limit possible three phase fields. For the CaSiO₃-MgSiO₃-MnSiO₃ system much less data are available but it is clear that the solid solutions are much more limited for the pyroxenoid structures and a continuum of compositions is inferred for clinopyroxenes from diopside to kanoite (MnMgSi₂O₆) for amphibolite facies conditions (T=650° C). At lower temperatures, Balmat kanoites are unstable and exsolve into C2/c calciumrich (Ca_0.68Mn_0.44Mg_0.88Si₂O₆) and C2/c calciumpoor (Ca_0.12Mn_1.02Mg_0.86Si₂O₆) phases. At temperatures of 300–400° C the calcium-poor phase subsequently has undergone a transformation to a P2₁/c structure; this exsolution-inversion relationship is analogous to that relating augites and pigeonites in the traditional pyroxene quadrilateral. Rhodonite coexisting with Mn-clinopyroxenes is compositionally restricted to Mn_0.75–0.95Mg_0.0–0.15Ca_0.05–0.13SiO₃. For the original pyroxene+rhodonite assemblage, the Mg and Ca contents of the rhodonite are fixed for a specific P (6kbars)-T (650° C)-X(H₂O)-X(CO₂) by the coexistence of talc+quartz and calcite+quartz respectively.Contribution No. 363, from the Mineralogical Laboratory, Department of Geological Sciences, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI 48109, USA     

Alexandria-Nile Delta coast,Egypt: update and future projection of relative sea-level rise

Previous studies have indicated that the Nile River deltaic plain is vulnerable to a number of aspects, including beach erosion, inundation, and relatively high rates of land subsidence. This issue motivates an update and analysis of new tide-gauge records, from which relative sea-level changes can be obtained. Estimated rates from five tide gauges are variable in terms of magnitude and temporal trend of rising sea level. Analysis of historical records obtained from tide gauges at Alexandria, Rosetta, Burullus, Damietta, and Port Said show a continuous rise in mean sea level fluctuating between 1.8 and 4.9 mm/year; the smaller rate occurs at the Alexandria harbor, while the higher one at the Rosetta promontory. These uneven spatial and temporal trends of the estimated relative sea-level rise (RSLR) are interpreted with reference to local geological factors. In particular, Holocene sediment thickness, subsidence rate and tectonism are correlated with the estimated rates of relative sea-level change. From the relatively weak correlation between them, we presume that tectonic setting and earthquakes, both recent and historical ones, contribute more to accelerated RSLR than that of dewatering and compression/dewatering of Holocene mud underlying the Nile Delta plain. As a result, large areas of the coastal plain have been subsided, but some sectors have been uplifted in response to tectonic activities of thick underlying older strata. Projection of averaged sea-level rise trend reveals that not all the coastal plain of the Nile Delta and Alexandria is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise at the same level due to wide variability of the land topography, that includes low-lying areas, high-elevated coastal ridges and sand dunes, accretionary beaches, and artificially protective structures. Interaction of all aspects (tectonic regime, topography, geomorphology, erosion rate, and RSLR rate) permitted to define risk areas much vulnerable to impacts of sea incursion due to accelerated sea-level rise.     

Ice-core records of global climate and environment changes

Precipitation accumulating on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets records several key parameters (temperature, accumulation, composition of atmospheric gases and aerosols) of primary interest for documenting the past global environment over recent climatic cycles and the chemistry of the preindustrial atmosphere. Several deep ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland have been studied over the last fifteen years. In both hemispheres, temperature records (based on stable isotope measurements in water) show the succession of glacial and interglacial periods. However, detailed features of the climatic stages are not identical in Antarctica and in Greenland. A tight link between global climate and greenhouse gas concentrations was discovered, CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations being lower in glacial conditions by about 80 and 0.3 ppmv, respectively, with respect to their pre-industrial levels of 280 and 0.65 ppmv. Coldest stages are also characterized by higher sea-salt and crustal aerosol concentrations. In Greenland, contrary to Antarctica, ice-age ice is alkaline. Gas-derived aerosol (in particular, sulfate) concentrations are generally higher for glacial periods, but not similar in both the hemispheres. Marine and continental biomass-related species are significant in Antarctica and Greenland ice, respectively. Finally, the growing impact of anthropogenic activities on the atmospheric composition is well recorded in both polar regions for long-lived compounds (in particular greenhouse gases), but mostly in Greenland for short-lived pollutants.     

Seismological features of island arc crust as inferred from recent seismic expeditions in Japan

Crustal studies within the Japanese islands have provided important constraints on the physical properties and deformation styles of the island arc crust. The upper crust in the Japanese islands has a significant heterogeneity characterized by large velocity variation (5.5–6.1 km/s) and high seismic attenuation (Qp=100–400 for 5–15 Hz). The lateral velocity change sometimes occurs at major tectonic lines. In many cases of recent refraction/wide-angle reflection profiles, a “middle crust” with a velocity of 6.2–6.5 km/s is found in a depth range of 5–15 km. Most shallow microearthquakes are concentrated in the upper/middle crust. The velocity in the lower crust is estimated to be 6.6–7.0 km/s. The lower crust often involves a highly reflective zone with less seismicity, indicating its ductile rheology. The uppermost mantle is characterized by a low Pn velocity of 7.5–7.9 km/s. Several observations on PmP phase indicate that the Moho is not a sharp boundary with a distinct velocity contrast, but forms a transition zone from the upper mantle to the lower crust. Recent seismic reflection experiments revealed ongoing crustal deformations within the Japanese islands. A clear image of crustal delamination obtained for an arc–arc collision zone in central Hokkaido provides an important key for the evolution process from island arc to more felsic continental crust. In northern Honshu, a major fault system with listric geometry, which was formed by Miocene back arc spreading, was successfully mapped down to 12–15 km.     

800-yr-long records of annual air temperature and precipitation over southern Siberia inferred from Teletskoye Lake sediments

A unique 800-yr-long record of annual temperatures and precipitation over the south of western Siberia has been reconstructed from the bottom sediments of Teletskoye Lake, Altai Mountains using an X-ray fluorescence scanner (XRF) providing 0.1-mm resolution timeseries of elemental composition and X-ray density (XRD). Br content appears to be broadly correlative with mean annual temperature variations because of changes in catchment vegetation productivity. Sr/Rb ratio reflects the proportion of the unweathered terrestrial fraction. XRD appears to reflect water yield regime and sediment flux. Sedimentation is rather continuous because annual clastic supply and deposited mass are the same. The artificial neural networks method was applied to convert annual sedimentary time-series of XRD, Br content, and Sr/Rb ratio to annual records of temperature and precipitation using a transfer function. Comparison of these reconstructed Siberian records with the annual record of air temperature for the Northern Hemisphere shows similar trends in climatic variability over the past 800 yr. Estimated harmonic oscillations of temperature and precipitation values for both historical and reconstructed periods reveal subdecadal cyclicity.     

Response of reef coral communities to sea-level rise: a Holocene model from Mauritius (Western Indian Ocean)

The fringing reef at Pointe-au-Sable (Mauritius, Indian Ocean) was used to examine the effects of Holocene sea-level rise on coral growth. This reef is about 1000 m wide and comprises a forereef slope (30 m maximum depth), a narrow reef crest and a very shallow backreef (1·5 m maximum depth). Four major coral communities were recognized, which developed within relatively narrow depth ranges: a Pachyseris/Oulophyllia community (deeper than 20 m), an Acropora‘tabulate’Faviid community (20–6 m); a robust branching Acropora community (less than 6 m) and a Pavona community (less than 10m). Three high-recovery cores show the Holocene reef sequence is a maximum of 19·3 m thick and comprises four coral biofacies which are similar to counterparts identified in modern communities: robust branching, tabular-branching, robust branching-domal and foliaceous coral facies. A minimum sea-level curve for the past 7500 years was constructed. Using distribution patterns of coral biofacies and radiocarbon dates from corals, reconstruction of reef growth history indicates that both offshore and onshore reef zones were developing coevally, aggrading at rates of 4·3 mm year^?1 from 6900 years B.P. The reef caught up with sea-level only after sea-level stabilized. Changes in coral community and reef growth rates were driven principally by increasing water agitation due to the decrease in accommodation space. Based on the composition of the successive coral assemblages, the reef appears to have grown through successive equilibrium stages.     

Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast

Natural Hazards - The central part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, is a highly flood-prone area of the province. The lives and assets of local communities are deeply vulnerable, attributed to the...     

The deep structure of the central Alps inferred from both geophysical and geological data

Gravity surveys of the past century established that mountains have roots, seismic refraction lines shot in the second half of this century confirmed the downbulge of the Moho under the Alps, and recent reflection traverses provided new details on the behaviour of crustal layers in the deep part of the Alps. However, geophysical data are ambiguous geologically. For models of the root in terms of rock distribution to be tectonophysically acceptable, they must be the retrodeformable result of kinematic sequence that fits the geological surface data. For a cross-section through the Swiss Alps based on refraction data and somewhat modified by the recent reflection traverses, a kinematic model compatible with large-scale geological data may be obtained by the superposition of three Neogene phases with alternating vergence. Although Alpine collision is largely dextrally compressive in the central Alps, the N-S component may be discussed in a cross-section. Particularly puzzling geophysical features include a high-velocity body in the middle crust and the disappearance of the layered foreland crust in the root. In order to account for these phenomena, it is proposed that the crustal root is interpreted as the result of complex reshuffling of middle and lower crustal masses as well as large-scale phase transformations. The mid-crustal highvelocity body is interpreted as a delaminated section of the lower crust of the Adria plate that was wedged into the middle crust of the Alps in the middle Miocene. The disappearance of the foreland lower crust is attributed to eclogitization attendant on the subduction of continental crust. Material balance estimates suggest that during Alpine collision large volumes of continental crust have disappeared through subduction.     

False metamorphic events inferred from misinterpretation of microstructural evidence and P–T data

Geometrical relationships involving inclusions and partial inclusions in metamorphic microstructures can be inadequate for inferring an order of crystallization and hence a metamorphic reaction. Unique spatial and/or chemical relationships need to be defined for mineral inclusions, in the context of a reference paragenesis, commonly the matrix assemblage. Corona microstructures are reliable indicators of metamorphic reactions, but require considerable care when used to infer reactions or changes in P–T conditions, owing to kinetic problems, as well as to changes in the effective reaction volume during changes across relatively broad P–T stability fields of assemblages. Mineral equilibria models, most commonly implemented through P–T pseudosections, may allow the order in which different minerals become stable along a given P–T path to be inferred. However, the order in which two minerals become stable may be different from the order in which two grains of these minerals nucleate. Furthermore, such diagrams cannot make predictions about which minerals will form porphyroblasts and which minerals will form inclusions in porphyroblasts. An evaluation of three examples from the Australian Proterozoic shows that modelling, in combination with inclusion‐host relationships, is a powerful tool for understanding the metamorphic evolution of a rock, but involves considerable uncertainty.     

Interactive effects of hydrology and salinity on oligohaline plant species productivity: Implications of relative sea-level rise

Sea-level rise is anticipated to alter hydrologic and salinity regimes of coastal wetlands. We conducted a mesocosm experiment to determine species-level responses to 12 sea-level rise scenarios. Both hydrologic regime (−10, +5, and +20 cm flooding depth) and salinity level (fresh, 2‰, 4‰ and 6‰) were interactively manipulated. Within these various sea-level rise scenarios, we sought to determine the effects of hydrologic regime, salinity level, and the interaction of these two stresses on the productivity ofPanicum hemitomon, Sagittaria lancifolia, andSpartina patens, which are dominant macrophytes of fresh, intermediate, and brackish marsh types, respectively, in coastal Louisiana and the southeastern coastal plain. We found that altered hydrologic regimes and increased salinity levels differentially affected edaphic conditions and species-level productivity. Increases in flooding depth were most detrimental toS. patens. Salinity levels greater than 4‰ resulted in mortality ofP. hemitomon, and salinity levels of 6‰ resulted in reduced growth and eventual death, ofS. lancifolia. The effects of elevated salinity levels onP. hemitomon andS. lancifolia were exacerbated when coupled with increased flooding levels. Although soil organic matter was shown to increase in all vegetative conditions, increases were dependent upon the productivity of the species under the different hydrologic regimes and salinity levels withP. hemitomon displaying tremendous potential to increase soil organic matter under fresh conditions, especially when coupled with moderate flooding. The results of this study indicate that as plant communities are subjected to long-term changes in hydrology and salinity levels, community productivity and sustainability ulimately will be determined by species-level tolerances in conjunction with species interactions.