Real time earthquake forecasting in Italy

We have applied an earthquake clustering epidemic model to real time data at the Italian Earthquake Data Center operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for short-term forecasting of moderate and large earthquakes in Italy. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecasts are displayed as time-dependent maps showing both the expected rate density of M_l ≥ 4.0 earthquakes and the probability of ground shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI (PGA ≥ 0.01 g) in an area of 100 × 100 km² around the zone of maximum expected rate density in the following 24 h. For testing purposes, the overall probability of occurrence of an M_l ≥ 4.5 earthquake in the same area of 100 × 100 km² is also estimated. The whole procedure is tested in real time, for internal use only, at the INGV Earthquake Data Center.Forecast verification procedures have been carried out in forward-retrospective way on the 2006–2007 INGV data set, making use of statistical tools as the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams. These procedures show that the clustering epidemic model performs up to several hundred times better than a simple random forecasting hypothesis. The seismic hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to real time earthquake hazard assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making and public information.     

Source characteristics of long runout rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,China

The May 12, 2008 Wenchuan, China Earthquake which measured M_w = 8.3 according to Chinese Earthquake Administration – CEA (M_w = 7.9 according to the USGS) directly triggered many landslides, which caused about 20,000 deaths, a quarter of the total. Rock avalanches were among the most destructive landslides triggered by this seismic event, and have killed more people than any other type of landslide in this earthquake. The Donghekou rock avalanche, one example of a catastrophic avalanche triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake, occurred in Qingchuan and buried one primary school and 184 houses, resulting in more than 780 deaths, and in addition, caused the formation of two landslide dams, which formed barrier lakes.Combining aerial images (resolution of 0.5 m) with field investigations, this paper lists some parameters of 66 cases in one table, and details source characteristics of six typical cases. It has been found that most of the long runout rock avalanches have source areas with high relief and steep inclination, causing the debris in the travel courses to accelerate. There was also a large amount of saturated Holocene-age loose deposits formed by a river or gully that existed in the travel courses. Comparison studies indicate that saturated Holocene loose deposits in the travel courses could be the most important factor for the causes of the long runout characteristic of the rock avalanches especially when they traveled over gentle or even flat ground surfaces.Furthermore, the relationships among the relief slope gradient, runout and covered area are investigated, and a threshold line for predicting the maximum horizontal runout distance under certain change in elevation is presented.     

Increased correlation range of seismicity before large events manifested by earthquake chains

“Earthquake chains” are clusters of moderate-size earthquakes which extend over large distances and are formed by statistically rare pairs of events that are close in space and time (“neighbors”). Earthquake chains are supposed to be precursors of large earthquakes with lead times of a few months. Here we substantiate this hypothesis by mass testing it using a random earthquake catalog. Also, we study stability under variation of parameters and some properties of the chains. We found two invariant parameters: they characterize the spatial and energy scales of earthquake correlation. Both parameters of the chains show good correlation with the magnitudes of the earthquakes they precede. Earthquake chains are known as the first stage of the earthquake prediction algorithm reverse tracing of precursors (RTP) now tested in forward prediction. A discussion of the complete RTP algorithm is outside the scope of this paper, but the results presented here are important to substantiate the RTP approach.     

Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.     

Usage of an early warning and information system Web-site for real-time seismicity in Iceland

Iceland has been subjected to destructive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions throughout history. Such events are often preceded by changes in earthquake activity over varying timescales. Although most seismicity is confined to micro-earthquakes, large earthquakes have occurred within populated regions. Following the most recent hazardous earthquakes in 2000, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) developed an early warning and information system (EWIS) Web-site for viewing near-real-time seismicity in Iceland. Here we assess Web-site usage data in relation to earthquake activity, as recorded by the South Iceland Lowland (SIL) seismic network. Between March 2005 and May 2006 the SIL seismic network recorded 12,583 earthquakes. During this period, the EWIS Web-site logged a daily median of 91 visits. The largest onshore event (M _L 4.2) struck 20 km from Reykjavík on 06 March 2006 and was followed by an immediate, upsurge in usage resulting in a total of 1,173 unique visits to the Web-site. The greatest cluster of large (≥M _L 3) events occurred 300 km offshore from Reykjavík in May 2005. Within this swarm, 9 earthquakes ≥M _L 3 were detected on 11 May 2005, resulting in the release of a media bulletin by IMO. During the swarm, and following the media bulletin, the EWIS Web-site logged 1,234 unique visits gradually throughout the day. In summary, the data reveal a spatial and temporal relationship between Web-site usage and earthquake activity. The EWIS Web-site is accessed immediately after the occurrence of a local earthquake, whereas distant, unfelt earthquakes generate gradual interest prompted by media bulletins and, possibly, other contributing factors. We conclude that the Internet is a useful tool for displaying seismic information in near-real-time, which has the capacity to help increase public awareness of natural hazards.     

Crustal seismic velocity in the Marche region (Central Italy): computation of a minimum 1-D model with seismic station corrections

A 1-D velocity model for the Marche region (Central Italy) was computed by inverting P- and S-wave arrival times of local earthquakes. A total of 160 seismic events with a minimum of ten observations, a travel time residual ≤0.8 s and an azimuthal gap lower than 180° have been selected. This “minimum 1-D velocity model” is complemented by station corrections, which can be used to take into account possible near-surface velocity heterogeneities beneath each station. Using this new P-wave velocity model and the program HYPOELLIPSE (Lahr 1999), the selected local events were relocated. Earthquake locations in this study are of higher quality with respect to the original ones. The obtained minimum 1-D velocity model can be used to improve the routine earthquake locations and represents a further step towards more detailed seismotectonic studies of the area.     

The Surface Rupture Zone and Coseismic Deformation Produced by the Yutian Ms7.3 Earthquake of 21 March 2008, Xinjiang

On 21 March 2008, a Ms7.3 earthquake occurred at Quickbird, Yutian County, Xinjiang. We attempt to reveal the features of the causative fault of this shock and its coseismic deformation field. Our work is based on analysis and interpretation to high-resolution satellite images as well as differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (D-InSAR) data from the satellite Envisat SAR, coupled with seismicity, focal mechanism solutions and active tectonics in this region. The result shows that the 40?km-long, nearly NS trending surface rupture zone by this event lies on a range-front alluvial platform in Qira County. It is characterized by distinct linear traces and simple structure with 1–3-m-wide individual seams and maximum 6.5?m width of a collapse fracture. Along the rupture zone many secondary fractures and fault-bounded blocks are seen, exhibiting remarkable extension. The coseismic deformation affected a large area 100×100?km2. D-InSAR analysis indicates that the interferometric deformation field is dominated by extensional faulting with a small strike-slip component. Along the causative fault, the western wall fell down and the eastern wall, that is the active unit, rose up, both with westerly vergence. Because of the big deformation gradients near the seismogenic fault, no interference fringes are seen on images, and what can be determined is a vertical displacement 70?cm or more between the two fault walls. According to the epicenter and differential occurrence times from the National Earthquake Information Center, China Earthquake Network Center, Harvard and USGS, it is suggested that the seismic fault ruptured from north to south.     

Coastal subsidence in Oregon,USA, during the giant Cascadia earthquake of AD 1700

Quantitative estimates of land-level change during the giant AD 1700 Cascadia earthquake along the Oregon coast are inferred from relative sea-level changes reconstructed from fossil foraminiferal assemblages preserved within the stratigraphic record. A transfer function, based upon a regional training set of modern sediment samples from Oregon estuaries, is calibrated to fossil assemblages in sequences of samples across buried peat-mud and peat-sand contacts marking the AD 1700 earthquake. Reconstructions of sample elevations with sample-specific errors estimate the amount of coastal subsidence during the earthquake at six sites along 400 km of coast. The elevation estimates are supported by lithological, carbon isotope, and faunal tidal zonation data. Coseismic subsidence at Nehalem River, Nestucca River, Salmon River, Alsea Bay, Siuslaw River and South Slough varies between 0.18 m and 0.85 m with errors between 0.18 m and 0.32 m. These subsidence estimates are more precise, consistent, and generally lower than previous semi-quantitative estimates. Following earlier comparisons of semi-quantitative subsidence estimates with elastic dislocation models of megathrust rupture during great earthquakes, our lower estimates for central and northern Oregon are consistent with modeled rates of strain accumulation and amounts of slip on the subduction megathrust, and thus, with a magnitude of 9 for the AD 1700 earthquake.     

The Yenice–Gönen active fault (NW Turkey): Active tectonics and palaeoseismology

The Yenice–Gönen Fault (YGF) is one of the most important active tectonic structures in the Biga peninsula. On March 18, 1953, a destructive earthquake (M_w = 7.2) occurred on the YGF, which is considered to be a part of the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). A 70 km-long dextral surface rupture formed during the Yenice–Gönen Earthquake (YGE).In this study, structural and palaeoseismological features of the YGF have been investigated. The YGF surface ruptures have been mapped and three trenches were excavated at Muratlar, Karaköy and Seyvan sites.According to the palaeoseismic interpretation and the results of ¹⁴C AMS dating, Seyvan trench shows that an earthquake of palaeoseismic age ca. 620 AD ruptured a different strand of the 1953 fault, producing rather significant surface rupture displacement, while there are indications that at least two older events occurred during the past millennia. Another set of trenches excavated near Gönen town (Muratlar village) revealed extensive liquefaction not only during the 1953 event, but also during a previous earthquake, dated at 1440 AD. The Karaköy trench shows no indications of recent reactivations.Based on the trenching results, we estimate a recurrence interval of 660 ± 160 years for large morphogenic earthquakes, creating linear surface ruptures. The maximum reported displacement during the 1953 earthquake was 4.2 m. Taking into account the palaeoseismologically determined earthquake recurrence interval and maximum displacement, slip-rate of the YGF has been calculated to be 6.3 mm/a, which is consistent with present-day velocities determined by GPS measurements. According to the geological investigations, cumulative displacement of the YGF is 2.3 km. This palaeoseismological study contributes to model the behaviour of large seismogenic faults in the Biga Peninsula.     

汶川8．0级地震序列时空分布研究

基于四川防震减灾信息网以及中国地震台网中心、中国地震信息网、国家地震科学数据共享中心提供的汶川8．0级地震目录资料,对2008年S月12日至2010年3月1日共1613次3．0级及以上余震的地震序列进行了时空分布分析。结果表明：汶川8．0级地震的余震大致可分为7个阶段,主震后18天应列为大地震强余震发生的警戒时间;地震序列的b值为0．751,印证了在类型相同的情况下主震震级越大b值越高的观点;地震序列的P值为1．117,与全球地震衰减速率相当;汶川地震的余震分布主要沿龙门山断裂走向北东向扩展,且具有明显分区性,自南向北分为南、中、北3区段,南区为地震起始破裂段,地震后期余震则主要分布在北区;震源深度分布在10～40km,集中在10～20km,表明龙门山断裂主要发生在中上地壳,且震源深度由南向北呈现逐渐变浅的趋势;震源深度扩展,南区呈明显脉冲状,中区主要是依次由15、30、25km深度向深、浅层同时扩展,北区余震深度分布呈“乙”字型,最后稳定在15km左右。     

Andean earthquakes triggered by the 2010 Maule,Chile (Mw 8.8) earthquake: Comparisons of geodetic,seismic and geologic constraints

The Maule, Chile, (M_w 8.8) earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered deformation events over a broad area, allowing investigation of stress redistribution within the upper crust following a mega-thrust subduction event. We explore the role that the Maule earthquake may have played in triggering shallow earthquakes in northwestern Argentina and Chile. We investigate observed ground deformation associated with the M_w 6.2 (GCMT) Salta (1450 km from the Maule hypocenter, 9 h after the Maule earthquake), M_w 5.8 Catamarca (1400 km; nine days), M_w 5.1 Mendoza (350 km; between one to five days) earthquakes, as well as eight additional earthquakes without an observed geodetic signal. We use seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations to characterize earthquake location, magnitude and focal mechanism, and characterize how the non-stationary, spatially correlated noise present in the geodetic imagery affects the accuracy of our parameter estimates. The focal mechanisms for the far-field Salta and Catamarca earthquakes are broadly consistent with regional late Cenozoic fault kinematics. We infer that dynamic stresses due to the passage of seismic waves associated with the Maule earthquake likely brought the Salta and Catamarca regions closer to failure but that the involved faults may have already been at a relatively advanced stage of their seismic cycle. The near-field Mendoza earthquake geometry is consistent with triggering related to positive static Coulomb stress changes due to the Maule earthquake but is also aligned with the South America-Nazca shortening direction. None of the earthquakes considered in this study require that the Maule earthquake reactivated faults in a sense that is inconsistent with their long-term behavior.     

Variability of atmospheric precipitable water in northern Chile: Impacts on interpretation of InSAR data for earthquake modeling

The use of Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometry (InSAR) in northern Chile, one of the most seismically active regions in the world, is of great importance. InSAR enables geodesists not only to accurately measure Earth’s motions but also to improve fault slip map resolution and our knowledge of the time evolution of the earthquake cycle processes. Fault slip mapping is critical to better understand the mechanical behavior of seismogenic zones and has fundamental implications for assessing hazards associated with megathrust earthquakes. However, numerous sources of errors can significantly affect the accuracy of the geophysical parameters deduced by InSAR. Among them, atmospheric phase delays caused by changes in the distribution of water vapor can lead to biased model parameter estimates and/or to difficulties in interpreting deformation events captured with InSAR. The hyper-arid climate of northern Chile might suggest that differential delays are of a minor importance for the application of InSAR techniques. Based on GPS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data our analysis shows that differential phase delays have typical amplitudes of about 20 mm and may exceptionally exceed 100 mm and then may impact the inferences of fault slip for even a Mw 8 earthquakes at 10% level. In this work, procedures for mitigating atmospheric effects in InSAR data using simultaneous MODIS time series are evaluated. We show that atmospheric filtering combined with stacking methods are particularly well suited to minimize atmospheric contamination in InSAR imaging and significantly reduce the impact of atmospheric delay on the determination of fundamental earthquake parameters.     

Earthquake hazard zonation of Sikkim Himalaya using a GIS platform

An earthquake hazard zonation map of Sikkim Himalaya is prepared using eight thematic layers namely Geology (GE), Soil Site Class (SO), Slope (SL), Landslide (LS), Rock Outcrop (RO), Frequency–Wavenumber (F–K) simulated Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Predominant Frequency (PF), and Site Response (SR) at predominant frequencies using Geographic Information System (GIS). This necessitates a large scale seismicity analysis for seismic source zone classification and estimation of maximum earthquake magnitude or maximum credible earthquake to be used as a scenario earthquake for a deterministic or quasi-probabilistic seismic scenario generation. The International Seismological Center (ISC) and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogues have been used in the present analysis. Combining b-value, fractal correlation dimension (Dc) of the epicenters and the underlying tectonic framework, four seismic source zones are classified in the northeast Indian region. Maximum Earthquake of M _W 8.3 is estimated for the Eastern Himalayan Zone (EHZ) and is used to generate the seismic scenario of the region. The Geohazard map is obtained through the integration of the geological and geomorphological themes namely GE, SO, SL, LS, and RO following a pair-wise comparison in an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Detail analysis of SR at all the recording stations by receiver function technique is performed using 80 significant events recorded by the Sikkim Strong Motion Array (SSMA). The ground motion synthesis is performed using F–K integration and the corresponding PGA has been estimated using random vibration theory (RVT). Testing for earthquakes of magnitude greater than M _W 5, a few cases presented here, establishes the efficacy and robustness of the F–K simulation algorithm. The geohazard coverage is overlaid and sequentially integrated with PGA, PF, and SR vector layers, in order to evolve the ultimate earthquake hazard microzonation coverage of the territory. Earthquake Hazard Index (EHI) quantitatively classifies the terrain into six hazard levels, while five classes could be identified following the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) PGA nomenclature for the seismic zonation of India. EHI is found to vary between 0.15 to 0.83 quantitatively classifying the terrain into six hazard levels as “Low” corresponding to BIS Zone II, “Moderate” corresponding to BIS Zone III, “Moderately High” belonging to BIS Zone IV, “High” corresponding to BIS Zone V(A), “Very High” and “Severe” with new BIS zones to Zone V(B) and V(C) respectively.     

The 2003 earthquake swarm in Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland

During May 2003 a swarm of 16 earthquakes (M_L = 0.6–2.1) occurred at Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland. The activity lasted for three weeks, but additional two events were observed at the same location in October 2004. A comparison of the waveforms indicated that the source mechanisms and the hypocentres of the events were nearly identical.A relative earthquake location method was applied to better define the geometry of the cluster and to identify the fault plane associated with the earthquakes. The relocated earthquakes aligned along an ENE–WSW trending zone, with a lateral extent of about 1.0 km by 0.8 km. The relative location and the waveform-modelling of depth sensitive surface wave (Rg) and S-to-P converted body wave (sP) phases indicated that the events were unusually shallow, most likely occurring within the first 2 km of the surface. The revised historical earthquake data confirm that shallow swarm-type seismicity is characteristic to the area.The focal mechanism obtained as a composite solution of the five strongest events corresponds to dip-slip motion along a nearly vertical fault plane (strike = 250°, dip = 80°, rake = 90°). The dip and strike of this nodal plane as well as the relocated hypocentres coincide with an internal intrusion boundary of the Vyborg rapakivi batholith.The events occur under a compressive local stress field, which is explained by large gravitational potential energy differences and ridge-push forces. Pore-pressure changes caused by intrusion of ground water and/or radon gas into the fracture zones are suggested to govern the swarm-type earthquake activity.     

Net earthquake hazard and elements at risk (NEaR) map creation for city of Istanbul via spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

The creation of earthquake hazard maps requires various datasets with selected attenuation relations. Based on the selected attenuation relation, the calculation time varies from half an hour to a couple of days. The length of time needed to create an earthquake hazard map also depends on the resolution of the resulting map. The time gets longer as the resolution of the resulting earthquake hazard map gets higher. The basic form of an attenuation relation requires complex calculation algorithms including geospatial information related to the region of interest. Nowadays, next-generation attenuation (NGA) models are introduced to generate more realistic earthquake hazard maps. However, the more complex the attenuation relation is, the longer time will be required to create a hazard map. This paper offers a new method to create high-resolution earthquake hazard maps, faster than using traditional attenuation relation methods, by using an analytic hierarchy process of spatial multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic information systems. This method has been generated and tested for the city of Istanbul. The resulting maps are compared with the earthquake hazard maps created for the city of Istanbul by using the NGA model of Boore and Atkinson (in Boore–Atkinson NGA ground motion relations for the geometric mean horizontal component of peak and spectral ground motion parameters (trans: Engineering Co, University of California B). Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 2007). A second output of this paper is a map of the elements at risk (EaR) for the population and buildings of Istanbul, and the introduction of a new approach of net elements at risk (NEaR).     

Unusually low seismic activity in the focal region of the great Kanto earthquake of 1923

The epicenters of earthquakes which occurred in the vicinity of Tokyo during the period 1926–1967 have been plotted by an IBM 360/40 computer at the Earthquake Prediction Observation Center. As a result, a seismically quiescent area is found to the south of Tokyo. The area coincides with the shallower part of the focal plane of the great Kanto earthquake of 1923 as obtained from the analyses of seismological and geodetic data. In historical times, many large earthquakes having a magnitude of 7.0 or greater took place in this area. If it is assumed that the strain energy has been constantly accumulated in this area, an energy potentially equivalent to that of a large earthquake of which the magnitude exceeds 7.7 seems to be stored in the crust there.     

Satellite monitoring of anomalous effects in the ionosphere related to the great Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008

In this paper, we present an investigation into plasma density disturbances and electric field perturbations associated with China, Sichuan, Wenchuan earthquake of magnitude M = 7.9 that occurred on May 12, 2008, at 06:28:01 UTC. The DEMETER (Detection of Electromagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite was launched on June 29, 2004. The orbit of DEMETER is polar, circular with an altitude of 710 km and its main scientific objective is the study of ionospheric perturbations linked to seismic activity. For satellite orbits near the epicenter region, some ionospheric effects are investigated, which can be considered as possible earthquake precursors. The paper discusses anomalous effects in the ionosphere associated with the Wenchuan earthquake, which cannot be explained by factors of solar-magnetospheric origin. For satellite orbits eight to four days before the main shock, fluctuations in ion density and increase in horizontal and vertical components of electric field are observed near the epicenter. Post-effect is observed too. The observations suggest a coupling between the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere and can be associated with the earthquake growing processes in the lithosphere and troposphere zones above the source. The results of ionospheric anomalous effects are presented and discussed. The results obtained are important because they are observed very near to epicenter.