堵江滑坡作坝主要工程地质问题及实例

国内外大量的文献资料和作者的野外现场调查表明,滑坡堵江成坝形成堰塞湖在山区一带广泛发育.研究发现堵江滑坡作坝存在的工程地质问题,主要包括坝体的渗透变形、稳定性、沉降及不均匀沉降和砂土液化问题.对上述工程地质问题进行探讨,并对堵江滑坡坝进行实例分析,对开发利用滑坡堵江形成堰塞湖蕴藏的丰富水能资源具有指导作用.     

堵江滑坡作坝的主要工程地质问题及利用情况分析

国内外大量的文献资料和作者野外现场调查表明:滑坡堵江成坝形成堰塞湖在山区一带广泛发育,研究发现堵江滑坡作坝存在的工程地质问题主要包括渗透变形、稳定性、沉降及不均匀沉降和砂土液化问题。文中对上述工程地质问题进行了探讨,并对滑坡坝的利用情况进行了实例分析,为开发堵江滑坡坝、堰塞湖蕴含的丰富水利水电资源起指导性作用。     

一个由左右岸滑坡形成的滑坡坝成因机制分析

滑坡坝及形成的堰塞湖在世界各国特别是山区一带广泛分布。它能够形成天然水库 ,在发生溃坝和洪水漫坝的情况下 ,造成的灾害损失很大。历史上产生过许多天然滑坡坝 ,有些很快发生溃坝 ,有些存在时间很长。存在时间较长的滑坡坝 ,它周围风景秀丽 ,成为旅游热点地区 ,同时也可开发其水资源。滑坡坝的形成有滑坡堵江、崩塌堵江和泥石流堵江 3种形式 ,它的形成机制对于滑坡坝的存在时间起了重要的作用。在开发和利用滑坡坝时 ,它的成因机制需要分析评价。本文对某滑坡坝的形成机制进行了研究 ,在研究某滑坡坝时发现 ,它由左右两岸的滑坡共同作用形成 ,这种形成模式在国内外报道很少 ,对类似工程也有一定的借鉴意义     

四川岷江叠溪较场地震滑坡及环境保护

根据对岷江叠溪较场滑坡最新的调研勘测资料 ,阐明了 193 3年 8月震惊世界的叠溪 7.5级地震引发的地震堵江滑坡的基本特征。通过对其形成演化机制的论述 ,评价了滑坡及堰塞坝稳定性和发展趋势 ,提出了防范对策。     

中国堵江滑坡的分布,成因和基本特征研究

滑坡堵江在中国山区广泛发育,全部或不完全堵塞江河,形成堰塞湖。作者近年来的研究工作主要在堵江滑坡的识别和调查上,目前已识别堵江滑坡１６０余个。在这些资料的基础上,研究了中国堵江滑坡的诱发因素、不同类型堵江滑坡发育的背景条件,天然堆石坝和堰塞湖的基本特征。     

中国滑坡堵江的类型及其特点

在所收集的中国１４７个典型滑坡堵江资料的基础上,对滑坡堵江事件分别按物质组成,滑坡体积大小,堵江状况,堵江历时和斜坡破坏机制等进行了分类,并研究了各类型的基本特点。     

金沙江上游沃达滑坡发育特征与堵江危险性分析

金沙江上游沃达滑坡自1985年开始出现变形,现今地表宏观变形迹象明显,存在进一步失稳滑动和堵江的风险。采用遥感解译、地面调查、工程地质钻探和综合监测等方法,分析了沃达滑坡空间结构和复活变形特征,阐明了滑坡潜在复活失稳模式,并采用经验公式计算分析了滑坡堵江危险性。结果表明:沃达滑坡为一特大型滑坡,体积约28.81×106 m3,推测其在晚更新世之前发生过大规模滑动;滑坡堆积体目前整体处于蠕滑变形阶段,局部处于加速变形阶段;复活变形范围主要集中在中前部,且呈现向后渐进变形破坏特征,复活区右侧变形比左侧强烈。滑坡存在浅层和深层两级滑面,平均埋深分别约15.0,25.5 m,相应地可能出现两种潜在失稳模式:滑坡强变形区沿浅层滑带滑动失稳时,形成的堵江堰塞坝高度约87.2 m;滑坡整体沿深层滑带滑动失稳时,形成的堵江堰塞坝高度约129.2 m。沃达滑坡存在形成滑坡-堵江-溃决-洪水链式灾害的危险性,建议进一步加强滑坡监测,针对性开展排水、加固等防治工程。     

中国喜马拉雅山地区滑坡堵江编目及空间特征分析

滑坡堵江数据获取与编目是其区域研究开展的基础。喜马拉雅山脉地处中国西南边陲,新构造运动强烈,滑坡堵江事件频发,在产生巨大经济损失的同时也造成了不良国际影响。鉴于该区区域滑坡堵江现场调查难以开展的问题,本文利用遥感技术、地理信息技术,结合野外验证获取了区内136处滑坡堵江事件的空间位置、基本属性和几何形态,建立了中国喜马拉雅山地区滑坡堵江编目。区内滑坡堵江集中分布在米林、札达、加查、错那、隆子、郎县等县,成因类型以滑坡、崩塌、泥石流为主。基于环境要素信息量计算得出该区滑坡堵江的易发程度随高程、坡度、地震加速度的增大先增大后减小,随地震点密度增大先减小后增大,随构造线密度增大逐渐增大,随与水系距离增大逐渐减小。不同坡向中,西向斜坡更容易诱发滑坡堵江,东南坡向最不容易诱发滑坡堵江。高位高山地貌类型、地层条件中的朗县构造混杂岩组和坚硬岩组,构造分区中的高喜马拉雅分区和雅鲁藏布江分区是滑坡堵江形成的有利条件。对比各环境要素不同类别的信息量取值认为影响该区滑坡堵江事件形成的主要背景因素是高程、地貌类型、地层岩组、构造分区和地震点密度。这些滑坡堵江事件几何参数的研究结果表明坝体长度-坝体面积与滑坡面积-坝体面积之间具有拟合程度较高的乘幂函数关系,而其他参数间的相关性并不突出。     

大型崩滑堵江事件及其环境效应研究综述

详细介绍了目前国外对滑坡堵江自然灾害在各方面的研究现状,包括了滑坡堵江事件的识别研究、滑坡堵江天然堆石坝和堰塞湖的研究、骨坡堵江事件的灾害研究和天然堆石坝的合理利用和治理以及中国地质人员近几年在这类灾害研究中所做的工作,提出了堵江灾害研究中存在的问题和发展方向。     

未受河流阻止的滑坡水平运动距离与滑坡堵江判别

滑坡堵江是滑坡诱发的次生灾害之一,常导致堰塞湖、洪水等次生的灾害链,其根本原因在于滑坡与河流的空间区域小于滑坡运动的距离。如果滑坡的运动未受河流的显著阻止,滑坡的水平运动距离主要受控于滑坡的诱发机制、滑坡体积和滑坡的垂直运动距离。因此,根据未受河流明显阻止的地震和降雨滑坡的水平运动距离与滑坡体积和垂直运动距离的相关性以及预测模型,可对滑坡堵江的危险性进行判别。由此,根据我国西南地区降雨和汶川地震诱发的无明显受阻的滑坡数据,在分析了滑坡等效摩擦系数与体积关系的基础上,分别建立地震和降雨滑坡水平运动距离的预测模型。研究结果表明在不同体积等级滑坡水平运动距离的预测分布图上,地震和降雨诱发的堵江滑坡都明显的偏离其对应的体积曲线,根据建立的经验关系可对滑坡堵江的危险性进行判别。     

崩滑堰塞坝(湖)的地貌环境效应

崩滑堰塞坝(湖)具有显著的地貌环境效应,这种效应在时间尺度上分为短期和长期2种,主要表现在河流水文过程、地貌演变、环境生态、景观等方面.堰塞坝形成初期河流原有生境受到干扰,河流生态和景观出现退化.堰塞体溃决强烈改变下游水文过程及河流地貌,严重冲击河流生境和生态,并可能对下游基础设施和群众生命财产造成灾难性破坏.长期稳定维持的堰塞坝深刻影响河流地貌过程,并显著改善河流生境、生态,提升景观水平.堰塞坝(湖)是河床持续下切、岸坡失稳而自然反馈形成的裂点,能增加河流阻力,控制河床下切,如能长期维持是河流健康稳定的促进因素.     

滑坡堰塞湖溃决风险与过程研究进展

滑坡堰塞湖是山区常见的一种自然灾害,对其溃决风险与过程的科学认知和合理评估是应急处置的关键。外荷载作用下滑坡堰塞体的力学响应、滑坡堰塞湖渐进破坏机理与溃决洪水预测理论是滑坡堰塞湖风险评估研究领域的关键科学问题。本文围绕滑坡堰塞湖形成后的溃决风险与过程展开综述,从定性和定量的角度分别对堰塞湖危险性评价方法进行分析总结,从小尺度、大尺度和超重力场试验技术的角度总结了堰塞湖的溃决机理、溃决过程及其影响因素,从数学方法的角度对堰塞湖溃决洪水预测中经验公式法、简化和精细化数值模拟方法的进展进行总结评价。然而,国内外关于滑坡堰塞湖风险评估领域的研究仍处于起步阶段,空-天-地一体化监测技术、堰塞湖危险性评价中的不确定性问题、堰塞体材料冲蚀特性与溃决机理、堰塞湖溃决洪水精细化模拟等将是未来的重点研究方向。本综述可为堰塞湖防灾减灾和流域水工程风险管理提供有价值的参考。     

堰塞湖坝体稳定性研究现状及展望

2008年5月12日汶川发生里氏8.0级大地震,在灾区形成了30多个堰塞湖,严重威胁了下游人民群众的生命财产安全,引起了世人对堰塞湖坝体稳定的高度关注。本文在前人研究的基础上,从地形地貌、诱发原因、寿命三个方面总结了堰塞湖坝体形成及存在的机理。重点分析总结了目前堰塞湖坝体稳定性的研究进展,指出影响坝体稳定性的内因为堰塞坝的形态与规模、物质组成与结构,外因为堰塞湖湖水体积;总结了前人关于影响坝体稳定性的关键因素以及室内模型试验的研究成果。最后分析了目前研究存在的问题,展望了未来的研究方向。     

The 12 May Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide lakes: distribution and preliminary risk evaluation

The Wenchuan earthquake, measured at M _s 8.0 according to the China Earthquake Administration, occurred at 14:28 on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province of China. It brought overwhelming destruction to eight provinces and cities. Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the earthquake produced 257 landslide lakes which were distributed along the fault rupture zone and river channels. The authors traveled to the disaster zone immediately after the earthquake to examine some of the features of the debris dams and performed a quick evaluation of the potential for outburst of earthquake-induced landslide lakes for the purpose of disaster relief. The preliminary analysis indicated that the landslide lakes could be classified as those exhibiting extremely high risk, medium risk, and low risk according to field observations and remote sensing, to determine material composition, dam structure, dam height, maximum water storage capacity, and size of the population potentially affected area. The failure risk of 21 debris dams were evaluated as follows: one dam with an extremely high danger risk, seven dams with a high danger, five dams with a medium danger, and eight dams of low danger. More concern was given to the Tangjiashan Lake and different scenarios for the potential sudden failure of its dam were assessed. The risk evaluation result was accepted in full, by the earthquake disaster relief office. A successful emergency dam treatment for risk reduction was planned, based on our assessments, and these measures were quickly carried out. According to this research, the earthquake destabilized the surrounding mountains, resulting in a prolonged geohazard for the area. Landslides and debris flows will continue to develop for at least 5 to 10 years after the Wenchuan earthquake and will produce additional dammed lakes. Recommendations and plans for earthquake–landslide lake mitigation were proposed, based on past successful practices.     

Logistic regression model for predicting the failure probability of a landslide dam

Landslides may obstruct river flow and result in landslide dams; they occur in many regions of the world. The formation and disappearance of natural lakes involve a complex earth–surface process. According to the lessons learned from many historical cases, landslide dams usually break down rapidly soon after the formation of the lake. Regarding hazard mitigation, prompt evaluation of the stability of the landslide dam is crucial. Based on a Japanese dataset, this study utilized the logistic regression method and the jack-knife technique to identify the important geomorphic variables, including peak flow (or catchment area), dam height, width and length in sequence, affecting the stability of landslide dams. The resulting high overall prediction power demonstrates the robustness of the proposed logistic regression models. Accordingly, the failure probability of a landslide dam can also be evaluated based on this approach. Ten landslide dams (formed after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and 2009 Typhoon Morakot) with complete dam geometry records were adopted as examples of evaluating the failure probability. The stable Tsao-Ling landslide dam, which was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake, has a failure probability of 27.68% using a model incorporating the catchment area and dam geometry. On the contrary, the Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was artificially breached soon after its formation during the Wenchuan earthquake, has a failure probability as high as 99.54%. Typhoon Morakot induced the Siaolin landslide dam, which was breached within one hour after its formation and has a failure probability of 71.09%. Notably, the failure probability of the earthquake induced cases is reduced if the catchment area in the prediction model is replaced by the peak flow of the dammed stream for these cases. In contrast, the predicted failure probability of the heavy rainfall-induced case increases if the high flow rate of the dammed stream is incorporated into the prediction model. Consequently, it is suggested that the prediction model using the peak flow as causative factor should be used to evaluate the stability of a landslide dam if the peak flow is available. Together with an estimation of the impact of an outburst flood from a landslide-dammed lake, the failure probability of the landslide dam predicted by the proposed logistic regression model could be useful for evaluating the related risk.     

Morphological analysis and features of the landslide dams in the Cordillera Blanca,Peru

Global warming in high mountain areas has led to visible environmental changes as glacial retreat, formation and evolution of moraine dammed lakes, slope instability, and major mass movements. Landslide dams and moraine dams are rather common in the Cordillera Blanca Mountains Range, Peru, and have caused large damages and fatalities over time. The environmental changes are influencing the rivers’ and dams’ equilibrium, and the potential induced consequences, like catastrophic debris flows or outburst floods resulting from dam failures, can be major hazards in the region. The studies of past landslide dam cases are essential in forecasting induced risks, and specific works on this topic were not developed in the study region. Reflecting this research gap, a database of 51 cases and an evolution study of landslide dams in the Cordillera Blanca Mountains is presented. The main morphometric parameters and information of the landslide, the dam body, the valley, and the lake, if any, have been determined through direct and indirect survey techniques. Low variability in some of the main morphometric parameter distributions (valley width and landslide volume) has been shown, most likely due to an environmental control connected to the regional tectonic and glacial history. In order to analyze present and future landslide dam evolution, a morphological analysis was carried out using two recently developed geomorphological indexes employed on the Italian territory. The results of the Cordillera Blanca analysis have been compared with a large Italian landslide dam inventory, highlighting as much the differences as the similarities between the two datasets. The long-term geomorphological evolution changes are evaluated. Many of the stable dams are in disequilibrium with their surrounding environment and their classification result is of “uncertain determination.”     

Development of an empirical model for predicting peak breach flow of landslide dams considering material composition

The existing empirical models do not consider the influence of material composition of landslide deposits on the peak breach flow due to the uncertainty in the material composition and the randomness of its distribution. In this study, based on the statistical analyses and case comparison, the factors influencing the peak breach flow were comprehensively investigated. The highlight is the material composition-based classification of landslide deposits of 86 landslide cases with detailed grain-size distribution information. In order to consider the geometric morphology of landslide dams and the potential energy of dammed lakes, as well as the material composition of landslide deposits in an empirical model, a multiple regression method was applied on a database, which comprises of 44 documented landslide dam breach cases. A new empirical model for predicting the peak breach flow of landslide dams was developed. Furthermore, for the same 44 documented landslide dam failures, the predicted peak breach flow obtained by using the existing empirical models for embankment and landslide dams and that obtained by using the newly developed model were compared. The comparison of the root mean square error (E_rms) and the multiple coefficient of determination (R²) for each empirical model verifies the accuracy and rationality of the new empirical model. Furthermore, for fair validation, several landslide dam breach cases that occurred in recent years in China and have reliable measured data were also used in another comparison. The results show that the new empirical model can reasonably predict the peak breach flow, and exhibits the best performance among all the existing empirical models for embankment and landslide dam breaching.

     

天然土石坝稳定性初步研究

滑坡堵塞江河形成的天然土石坝是自然作用的产物，不同于人工土石坝，天然土石坝形成后有些存在几十年，几百年，有些形成后不久就溃决，这与坝体本身的性质和河水入流量有关，依据野外实测资料，证了土石坝的稳定性的主要是同土石坝的物质组成，几何形状和堰塞湖入流量等因素决定的，这一研究为天然土石坝的稳定性预测奠定了基础。     

Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach

Risk assessment development considering the failure of landslide dams often requires the estimation of peak outflow through the breach. The empirical equations based on data from case studies tend to be the first direct approach. This paper conducted an uncertainty analysis when these empirical relations were utilized to predict the peak outflow of a breached landslide dam. The results suggest that the relations derived from manmade dams or embankments typically overestimate the peak outflow about 1/5 to 3/4 of an order of magnitude; and the relations derived from the database of landslide dams have much smaller mean prediction errors and also exhibit broad uncertainty bands. Application of the uncertainly analysis was illustrated by the Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake, formed during 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In addition, the predicted results from Eq. 1 deduced herein were considered to be the reliable estimate of peak outflow through the breach of landslide dam.