BCC_CSM对北极海冰的模拟:CMIP5和CMIP6历史试验比较

本文利用北京气候中心气候系统模式(BCC_CSM)在最近两个耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5和CMIP6)的历史试验模拟结果,对北极海冰范围和冰厚的模拟性能进行了比较,结果表明:(1) CMIP6改善了CMIP5模拟海冰范围季节变化过大的问题,总体上更接近观测结果;(2)两个CMIP试验阶段中BCC_CSM模拟的海冰厚度都偏小,但CMIP6试验对夏季海冰厚度过薄问题有所改进。通过对影响海冰生消过程的冰面和冰底热收支的分析,我们探讨了上述模拟偏差以及CMIP6模拟结果改善的成因。分析表明,8?9月海洋热通量、向下短波辐射和反照率对模拟结果的误差影响较大,CMIP6试验在这些方面有较大改善;而12月至翌年2月,CMIP5模拟的北极海冰范围偏大主要是海洋热通量偏低所导致,CMIP6模拟的海洋热通量较CMIP5大,但北大西洋表层海流的改善才是巴芬湾附近海冰外缘线位置改善的主要原因。CMIP试验模拟的夏季海冰厚度偏薄主要是因为6?8月海洋热通量和冰面热收支都偏大,而CMIP6试验模拟的夏季海冰厚度有所改善主要是由于海洋热通量和净短波辐射的改善。海冰模拟结果的改善与CMIP6海冰模块和大气模块参数化的改进有直接和间接的关系,通过改变短波辐射、冰面反照率和海洋热通量,使BCC_CSM模式对北极海冰的模拟性能也得到有效提高。     

CMIP6模式对北冰洋海洋热含量的模拟能力评估

本文利用PHC、ECCO2、SODA、GECCO3和CMIP6资料,分析了北冰洋热含量的水平分布特征、季节变化和长期变化趋势等,评估了CMIP6模式对北冰洋海洋热含量的模拟能力。研究发现,北冰洋海洋热含量表现出明显的季节变化：热含量在4月份最低,9月份最高;在历史情形下(1850−2014年),相较观测和再分析资料,CMIP6多模式集合平均(MME)的上层500 m热含量在格陵兰海偏暖,在挪威海、巴伦支海和欧亚海盆偏冷,MME的全水深热含量在北冰洋几乎所有区域均偏暖,在格陵兰海偏差最大;CMIP6模式对北冰洋温度剖面模拟偏差较大,MME平均温度在1 000 m以深均高于观测和再分析资料。在未来情形下(2015−2100年),MME表现出明显的北冰洋增暖情形,但绝大多数中国模式没有表现出明显的增暖情形。中国模式中,BCC-CSM2-MR和BCC-ESM1对北冰洋年平均热含量的模拟较差,CIESM对热含量季节和年代际变化模拟较差,FIO-ESM-2-0对北冰洋上层500 m年平均热含量及热含量季节和年代际变化的模拟都比较好。     

基于CMIP6模式分析北极典型海区浮游植物藻华模拟误差

在海冰覆盖的极地海区,浮游植物季节性藻华变化呈现典型的单峰特征。由于藻华过程受控于海冰、光照、混合层深度和营养盐供给等多个因素,其发生时间和强度在地球系统模式模拟结果中存在较大的不确定性。本研究选取11种CMIP6地球系统模式结果,以多种类型的观测资料和产品作为判断参考值,评估各模式结果能否准确模拟北极典型海区（巴伦支海、楚科奇海及白令海）浮游植物藻华动态的变化规律。通过计算能表征光照和营养盐限制的多个指标,分析表层叶绿素a浓度模拟结果的误差来源。结果表明,依据冰下光照时长、混合层变化速率、表层硝酸盐指标将11种模式分为3组,与参考值指标差异较小组别中的模式在藻华模拟方面明显占优,而其余模式在表层硝酸盐或混合层变化的模拟上存在较大误差,导致表层叶绿素a浓度峰值的发生时间延后且峰值浓度误差大。总体而言,地球系统模式配置中除要考虑光照和营养盐这两种基础限制条件外,也需关注由温盐控制的上混合层深度,从而准确模拟出表层叶绿素a浓度的季节性变化规律,上述研究为地球系统模式中相关参数化方案的改进提供了参考。     

Comparison of coupled and uncoupled models in simulating Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation from CMIP6

The monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) is the dominant variability over the Indian Ocean during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season and is characterized by pronounced northward propagation. Previous studies have shown that general circulation models (GCMs) still have difficulty in simulating the northward-propagating MISO, and that the role of air-sea interaction in MISO is unclear. In this study, 14 atmosphere-ocean coupled GCMs (CGCMs) and the corresponding atmosphere-only GCMs (AGCMs) are selected from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess their performance in reproducing MISO and the associated vortex tilting mechanism. The results show that both CGCMs and AGCMs are able to well simulate the significant relationship between MISO and vortex tilting. However, 80% of CGCMs show better simulation skills for MISO than AGCMs in CMIP6. In AGCMs, the poor model fidelity in MISO is due to the failure simulation of vortex tilting. Moreover, it is found that failure to simulate the downward motion to the north of convection is responsible for the poor simulation of vortex tilting in AGCMs. In addition, it is observed that there is a significant relationship between the simulated sea surface temperature gradient and simulated vertical velocity shear in the meridional direction. These findings indicate that air-sea interaction may play a vital role in simulating vertical motions in tilting and MISO processes. This work offers us a specific target to improve the MISO simulation and further studies are needed to elucidate the physical processes of this air-sea interaction coupling with vortex tilting.     

An assessment of the subduction rate in the CMIP6 historical experiment

Subduction process is a dynamical bridge for the exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean water, which is regarded as a central proxy for the ocean climate studies. Given its key indicator in climate signals, it is of importance to examine the ability of a model to simulate the global subduction rate before investigating the climate dynamics. In this paper, we evaluated the ability of 21 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) in simulating t...     

An assessment of Arctic cloud water paths in atmospheric reanalyses

The role of Arctic clouds in the recent rapid Arctic warming has attracted much attention. However, Arctic cloud water paths(CWPs) from reanalysis datasets have not been well evaluated. This study evaluated the CWPs as well as LWPs(cloud liquid water paths) and IWPs(cloud ice water paths) from five reanalysis datasets(MERRA-2,MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and ERA5) against the COSP(Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observations Simulator Package) output for MODIS from the MERRA-2 CSP(COSP satellite simulator) collection(defined as M2 Modis in short). Averaged over 1980–2015 and over the Arctic region(north of 60°N), the mean CWPs of these five datasets range from 49.5 g/m~2(MERRA) to 82.7 g/m~2(ERA-Interim), much smaller than that from M2 Modis(140.0 g/m~2). However, the spatial distributions of CWPs, show similar patterns among these reanalyses, with relatively small values over Greenland and large values over the North Atlantic. Consistent with M2 Modis, these reanalyses show larger LWPs than IWPs, except for ERA-Interim. However, MERRA-2 and MERRA underestimate the ratio of IWPs to CWPs over the entire Arctic, while ERA-Interim and JRA-55 overestimate this ratio. ERA5 shows the best performance in terms of the ratio of IWPs to CWPs. All datasets exhibit larger CWPs and LWPs in summer than in winter. For M2 Modis, IWPs hold seasonal variation similar with LWPs over the land but opposite over the ocean. Following the Arctic warming, the trends in LWPs and IWPs during 1980～2015 show that LWPs increase and IWPs decrease across all datasets, although not statistically significant. Correlation analysis suggests that all datasets have similar interannual variability. The study further found that the inclusion of re-evaporation processes increases the humidity in the atmosphere over the land and that a more realistic liquid/ice phase can be obtained by independently treating the liquid and ice water contents.     

气候模式和再分析数据中北冰洋中层水再现能力的评估

The simulations of the Arctic Intermediate Water in four datasets of climate models and reanalyses, CCSM3, CCSM4, SODA and GLORYS, are analyzed and evaluated. The climatological core temperatures and depths in both CCSM models exhibit deviations over 0.5°C and 200 m from the PHC. SODA reanalysis reproduces relatively reasonable spatial patterns of core temperature and depth, while GLORYS, another reanalysis, shows a remarkable cooling and deepening drift compared with the result at the beginning of the dataset especially in the Eurasian Basin(about 2°C). The heat contents at the depth of intermediate water in the CCSM models are overestimated with large positive errors nearly twice of that in the PHC. To the contrary, the GLORYS in 2009 show a negative error with a similar magnitude, which means the characteristic of the water mass is totally lost. The circulations in the two reanalyses at the depth of intermediate water are more energetic and realistic than those in the CCSMs, which is attributed to the horizontal eddy-permitting resolution. The velocity fields and the transports in the Fram Strait are also investigated. The necessity of finer horizontal resolution is concluded again. The northward volume transports are much larger in the two reanalyses, although they are still weak comparing with mooring observations. Finally, an investigation of the impact of assimilation is done with an evidence of the heat input from assimilation. It is thought to be a reason for the good performance in the SODA, while the GLORYS drifts dramatically without assimilation data in the Arctic Ocean.     

CMIP6模式对中国近海气象要素模拟评估与预测

为了研究第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中新提出的“情景模式比较计划”(ScenarioMIP)下中国近海气象要素的变化情况,本文选取了其中6个海气耦合模型,对其模拟的风速、气温、降水进行评估与预测。评估结果表明选取的模式对中国近海模拟效果整体都不错,但在菲律宾群岛附近模拟结果相对欠佳。模型平均预估结果表明未来21世纪中叶4个情景下渤黄海风速夏季增加、冬季减弱;至21世纪末,研究海域夏季15°N以北(南)风速主要呈增加(减小)的趋势,冬季25°N以北(南)风速主要呈减小(增加)的趋势。4个未来情景下的中国近海气温都将持续升高,高纬区域增幅大于低纬。可持续发展情景(SSP1-2.6)能有效减缓升温,其他放任温室气体大量排放的情景(如SSP5-8.5),则会加剧升温。未来中国近海降水变化总体上呈增加趋势,渤黄海与东海降水增幅在SSP5-8.5情景下最大,世纪末分别增加约15.87%与5.61%;南海降水增幅在SSP2-4.5情景下最大,世纪末增加约4.84%。     

2016年夏季北冰洋浮冰站近地层辐射和湍流通量观测

2016年8月7－14日中国第七次北极科学考察期间,在83°N附近设立的长期浮冰站开展了辐射和湍流通量观测研究。结果表明,观测期间反照率变化范围为0.64~0.92,平均反照率为0.78;基于现场观测数据评估了PW79、HIRHAM、ARCSYM和CCSM3 4种不同复杂度的反照率参数化方案在天气尺度的表现,最为复杂的CCSM3结果优于其他参数化方案,但不能体现降雪条件下的反照率快速增长。浮冰区冰雪面平均净辐射为18.10 W/m2,平均感热通量为1.73 W/m2,平均潜热通量为5.55 W/m2,海冰表面消融率为（0.30±0.22） cm/d,表明此时北冰洋浮冰正处于快速消融期。冰面的平均动量通量为0.098（kg·m/s）/（m2·s）,动量通量与风速有很好的对应关系,相关系数达0.80。     

北极孔斯峡湾表层沉积物中溶解有机质的来源与转化历史

在北极地区孔斯峡湾采集28个表层沉积物样品,测定了其中水溶性有机质(也称溶解有机质,DOM)的分子量分布、紫外/可见吸收光谱和三维荧光光谱特征,并利用平行因子分析(PARAFAC)模型对DOM的荧光组分和来源进行了解析。结果表明:孔斯峡湾表层沉积物中有色溶解有机质(CDOM)及其中的荧光溶解有机质(FDOM)含量均从内湾向外湾方向呈逐渐累积的趋势,但CDOM中的FDOM所占比例逐渐减小,与DOM趋于老龄化密切相关。沉积作用减弱以及长期的光化学降解和微生物降解作用对此起主要贡献,并导致腐殖质和小分子组分在沉积物DOM中所占的比例呈逐渐递增的趋势。沉积物DOM包含陆源类腐殖质、自生源类腐殖质和类蛋白等三个荧光组分,但是其组成比例空间差异很大。吸收光谱斜率比(S_R)随自生源所占百分比增加而减小,随DOM腐殖质组分中陆源与自生源的比值增加而增加;腐殖化指数(HIX)随类腐殖质与类蛋白质比值和水深的增加而增加,生物源指数(BIX)随自生源比例增加而增加。峡湾沉积物DOM的组成和来源存在着高度的空间差异,在冰川湾区由水体颗粒有机质(POM)的近期转化和迁移而来,而在峡湾中央及口门附近以较老的腐殖质为优势,主要源于水体DOM长期迁移和转化。研究表明,FDOM/CDOM,S_R,HIX和BIX等构成的CDOM光谱指纹信息可以作为揭露沉积物溶解有机质来源及迁移转化历史的工具,对探索海洋与冰川相互作用影响下的峡湾环境演变有着重要意义。     

西北冰洋表层沉积物中生源和陆源粗组分及其沉积环境

通过中国第1至第3次北极科学考察在北冰洋西部所采集的99个表层沉积物中生源与陆源粗组分的分析,研究了该海域表层生产力的变化,有机质来源以及陆源粗颗粒物质的输入方式和影响因素.研究区域生源组分所反映的表层生产力变化与通过白令海峡进入楚科奇海的3股太平洋洋流密切相关.楚科奇海西侧高盐高营养盐的阿纳德尔流流经区域,表层生产力...     

海冰热力模式的辐射参数化方案在渤海和波罗的海应用的比较

研究了海冰热力模式中的各种辐射参数化方案,对比了模式计算的太阳短波辐射、大气长波辐射以及海冰热力变化,并利用渤海和波罗的海观测资料进行比较和误差分析.冬季大部分时间太阳短波辐射对海冰热力过程的作用有限.简单计算方案一般满足海冰模式要求.误差主要受云和冰雪表面与大气之间的多重反射影响.长波辐射对表面热平衡和海冰质量变化起重要作用.长波辐射参数化方案的计算结果受环境因素影响.云量参数化有待进一步改进.海冰模式计算结果的精度与长波辐射计算精度有一致性.     

Distribution of ammonia-oxidizing Betaproteobacteria community in surface sediment off the Changjiang River Estuary in summer

The spatial distribution of ammonia-oxidizing Betaproteobacteria ( β AOB) was investigated by FISH (fluorescence in situ hybridization) and DGGE (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis) techniques in the sediment off the Changjiang River Estuary.Sediment samples were collected from eight stations in June before the formation of hypoxia zone in 2006.The abundance of β AOB ranged from 1.87 × 10 5 to 3.53 × 10 5 cells/g of sediment.β AOB abundance did not present a negative correlation with salinity,whereas salinity was implicated as the primary factor affecting nitrification rates.The DGGE profiles of PCR-amplified amo A gene fragments revealed that the β AOB community structure of sample S2 separated from other samples at the level of 40% similarity.The variations in composition of β AOB were significantly correlated with the salinity,temperature,absorption ability of sediments and TOC. The statistical analysis indicates that the β AOB abundance was a main factor to influence nitrification rates with an influence ratio of 87.7% at the level of 40% biodiversity similarity.Considering the good correlation between β AOB abundance and nitrification estimates,the abundance and diversity of β AOB community could be expected as an indirect index of nitrification activity at the study sea area in summer.     

Chromium(VI) distributions in the Arctic and the Atlantic Oceans and a reassessment of the oceanic Cr cycle

Chromium(VI) concentrations ranging between 3.0 and 6.1 nmol l⁻¹ and 3.1 and 7.3 nmol l⁻¹ were found in the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, respectively. The vertical profiles show modest depletion of chromium(VI) in surface waters, but poor overall correlations between Cr(VI) and nutrient profiles. Given that Cr(VI) is the dominant oxidation state of chromium in open-ocean waters, these data are combined with literature data to reassess the distribution of Cr in oceanic waters. It is concluded that while Cr shows some characteristics of both “recycled” and “accumulated” vertical profiles, it does not fall clearly within either group.     

苏北浅滩及长江口海域春季海表面温度长期升温机制分析

在1982—2016年,苏北浅滩及长江口海域春季海表面温度主要呈现出从南至北、从近岸至离岸升温趋势逐渐减小的特征,其中长江口附近海域升温速率最大。研究显示,苏北浅滩及长江口附近海域春季海表面温度的长期升温趋势主要与该海域经向热输送及长江平流热输送的增强有关。进一步的研究发现,春季经向风速的增强导致该海域经向热输送的增加,而春季经向风速的年际及年代际变率又受到太平洋年代际振荡、北极涛动的调控,其中,太平洋年代际振荡指数与经向风速呈负相关,北极涛动指数与经向风速呈正相关,北极涛动指数的年际增加以及太平洋年代际振荡指数的年际降低使得春季南风增强,进而南向的冷平流减弱,北向的热平流增强,使该海域春季海表面温度长期升温。在此过程中,净热通量对其升温过程起到抑制作用,而前冬海温主要是对春季海表面温度的年代际振荡产生重要影响,其主要体现为1982—1999年的升温及2000—2016年的降温过程。     

南海北部琼东南盆地浅表层沉积物的地球化学特征及对沉积环境的指示*

南海北部琼东南盆地海底存在着巨型麻坑, 现有研究多认为其形成主要与海底流体渗漏有关。目前对琼东南盆地深海沉积物地球化学特征及麻坑区的生物地球化学过程等尚不清楚。文章选取南海北部琼东南盆地C14、C19两个站位岩心样品, 进行了总硫(TS)、总碳(TC)、总有机碳(TOC)、铬还原性硫化物(CRS)及其δ³⁴S_CRS值测试, 并结合总氮/总碳(TN/TOC)比值和已发表的孔隙水中SO₄^2-浓度等进行了地球化学特征分析。研究表明: C14站位以3.91m bsf (below seafloor)为界, 上下分别存在有机质参与的硫酸盐还原反应(OSR)和甲烷厌氧氧化作用(AOM)驱动的硫酸盐还原反应(SR); 3.91m bsf以上的部位沉积物的TS、TC含量均低于3.91m bsf以下部位, 且沉积物孔隙水中SO₄^2-浓度由3.91m bsf以上的缓慢凹型减少变成3.91m bsf以下的线性减少, 说明该处成为沉积物中地球化学特征分界的明显标志; 在3.91m bsf以下, 受到甲烷渗漏的影响。C19站位沉积物中TS与TC含量由浅到深逐渐增加, 但与TN/TOC比值变化呈现几乎相反趋势, 即整个岩心以OSR为主, 并呈现出有机质早期成岩阶段的沉积现象。C14和C19两个站位柱状沉积物的δ³⁴S_CRS值变化范围分别为-50.2‰~-46.9‰和-50.1‰~-42.0‰ (V-CDT标准), 均显示出了较为偏负的硫同位素值, 表明研究区主要的生物化学过程是在相对开放体系下硫酸盐还原作用的结果, 综合说明该研究区麻坑的甲烷流体已经喷发, 目前可能处于衰退期, 甚至已经不活跃, 该结果与前人的认识基本一致。     

基于HMSC模型分析山东近海夏季底层鱼类的环境适应性与种间关系

传统的物种分布模型很少将种间关系纳入建模框架中,妨碍了对物种栖息分布的准确预测。近年来联合物种分布模型（JSDMs）越来越受到关注,但在海洋领域实际应用仍较为缺乏。本研究根据2017年夏季山东近海底拖网调查数据,结合水深、底层水温和底层盐度等环境数据,采用物种群落层次模型（HMSC）方法研究了山东近海17种底层鱼类与环境因素之间的关系和种间相关性。本研究根据生物与环境之间的线性或非线性关系以及随机效应构建了5种HMSC,并利用广泛适用信息准则（WAIC）等指标以及交叉验证方法,评价了模型拟合程度和预测效果。结果表明,最优模型为包含随机效应的非线性模型（模型五）,非线性模型优于线性模型,且在模型中考虑种间关系能明显地提高模型的拟合效果。温度是影响山东近海底层鱼类分布的主要因素,占平均可解释方差的51.4%,其次是水深和随机效应,分别占35.7%和12.8%。山东近海大部分底层鱼类与水深存在显著线性正相关关系,而与水温存在显著的非线性关系。底层鱼类种间具有显著相关性,按其相关性的正负可大致分为3组,表明种间关系在预测物种分布方面的作用不容忽视。本研究建议,在建模中应同时考虑非生物因素和生物之间的相互关系,研究结果为预测渔业资源栖息分布提供了重要参考。     

南海南部浅表层柱状沉积物孔隙水地球化学特征对甲烷渗漏活动的指示

海底沉积物孔隙水地球化学特征能快速响应甲烷渗漏活动及其生物地球化学过程,从而记录甲烷渗漏活动特征。对采自南海南部北康盆地的3个重力沉积柱状沉积物孔隙水样品（BH-H75、BH-H13Y和BH-H61）进行了甲烷浓度、溶解无机碳（DIC）和碳同位素（δ13CDIC）、阴离子（SO42−、Cl−）以及主微量元素（Ca2+、Mg2+、Sr2+、Ba2+）等地球化学分析。（△DIC+△Ca2++△Mg2+）/△SO42−比率图解与δ13CDIC深度剖面特征揭示了有机质硫酸盐还原反应（OSR）和硫酸盐驱动-甲烷厌氧氧化反应（SD-AOM）在不同沉积柱中所占比例的不同,其中BH-H13Y沉积柱中OSR和SD-AOM共同存在;BH-H75沉积柱中OSR占主导;在BH-H61沉积柱中SD-AOM占主导,且其底部可能存在微生物产甲烷作用。硫酸盐浓度线性拟合关系指示BH-H13Y的硫酸盐-甲烷过渡带（SMTZ）的深度约为700 cmbsf。结合SO42−浓度、DIC浓度最大值和δ13CDIC最小值推测BH-H61的SMTZ深度约为480 cmbsf。BH-H61和BH-H13Y沉积柱中,较浅的SMTZ深度、上升的DIC浓度以及强烈负偏的δ13CDIC值指示研究区存在甲烷渗漏活动。此外,在BH-H61和BH-H13Y站位,硫酸盐浓度随深度降低的变化梯度在沉积柱下部较上部陡,指示向上迁移的甲烷通量在时间上逐渐增强。孔隙水中Ca2+、Mg2+、Sr2+浓度以及Mg/Ca、Sr/Ca比值变化特征指示研究区沉积物中可能有自生高镁方解石矿物生成;而BH-H61站位SMTZ界面以下,孔隙水中Ba2+浓度升高,指示了硫酸钡的溶解作用。     

基于历史和卫星资料的中国近海海表面温度长期变化趋势的综合分析

利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”历史资料并结合Pathfinder 卫星遥感资料, 对中国近海的海表面温度（SST）多年变化情况进行了分析讨论, 给出了变化趋势。针对1963～1996 年和1985～1996 年两个时间段, 对夏季和冬季中国近海SST 的长期变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明, 在中国近海除个...     

Microfossils, carbonate lysocline and compensation depth in surface sediments of the northeastern South China Sea

INTRODUCTIONTwoimportantinterfacespunctuatingtheabyssalverticaltrans sectionarecarbonatelyso clineandcarbonatecompensationdepth (CCD) .Thecarbonatelysoclineislabeledbyabruptincrementofcarbonatedissolutiononcalcitemicrofossilssuchasplanktonicforaminifertests(Berger,1 96 8) ,ordecreasingapparentlyinpercentageofthecarbonateproportion (Panetal ,1 988) .ThoughtherearemanyachievementsonthecarbonatecycleandCCDresearches(Wangetal ,1 995;Rottman ,1 979;Thunelletal ,1 992 ;Zhengetal ,1 993;Mia…