Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the sultanate of Oman

This study presents the results of the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the framework of logic tree for Oman. The earthquake catalogue was homogenized, declustered, and used to define seismotectonic source model that characterizes the seismicity of Oman. Two seismic source models were used in the current study; the first consists of 26 seismic source zones, while the second is expressing the alternative view that seismicity is uniform along the entire Makran and Zagros zones. The recurrence parameters for all the seismogenic zones were determined using the doubly bounded exponential distribution except the zones of Makran, which were modelled using the characteristic distribution. Maximum earthquakes were determined and the horizontal ground accelerations in terms of geometric mean were calculated using ground-motion prediction relationships developed based upon seismic data obtained from active tectonic environments similar to those surrounding Oman. The alternative seismotectonic source models, maximum magnitude, and ground-motion prediction relationships were weighted and used to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Hazard maps at rock sites were produced for 5?% damped spectral acceleration (SA) values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0?s spectral periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for return periods of 475 and 2,475?years. The highest hazard is found in Khasab City with maximum SA at 0.2?s spectral period reaching 243 and 397?cm/s² for return periods 475 and 2,475 years, respectively. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the choice of seismic source model and the ground-motion prediction equation influences the results most.     

A new probabilistic seismic hazard study of Spain

In this paper, we present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for mainland Spain that takes into account recent new results in seismicity, seismic zoning, and strong ground attenuation not considered in the latest PSHA of the Spanish Building Code. Those new input data have been obtained as a three-step project carried out in order to improve the existing hazard map for mainland Spain. We have produced a new earthquake catalogue for the area, in which the earthquakes are given in moment magnitude through specific deduced relationships for our territory based on intensity data (Mezcua et al. in Seismol Res Lett 75:75–81, 2004). In addition, we included a new seismogenetic zoning based on the recent partial zoning studies performed by different authors. Finally, as we have developed a new strong ground motion model for the area García Blanco (2009), it was considered in the hazard calculation together with other attenuations gathered from different authors using data compatible with our region. With this new data, a logic tree process is defined to quantify the epistemic uncertainty related to those parts of the process. A sensitivity test has been included in order to analyze the different models of ground motion and seismotectonic zonation used in this work. Finally, after applying a weighting scheme, a mean hazard map for PGA, based on rock type condition for 10% exceedance probability in 50 years, is presented, including 15th and 85th percentile hazard maps. The main differences with the present official building code hazard map are analyzed.     

Spatial-temporal variability of seismic hazard in peninsular India

This paper examines the variability of seismic activity observed in the case of different geological zones of peninsular India (10°N–26°N; 68°E–90°E) based on earthquake catalog between the period 1842 and 2002 and estimates earthquake hazard for the region. With compilation of earthquake catalog in terms of moment magnitude and establishing broad completeness criteria, we derive the seismicity parameters for each geologic zone of peninsular India using maximum likelihood procedure. The estimated parameters provide the basis for understanding the historical seismicity associated with different geological zones of peninsular India and also provide important inputs for future seismic hazard estimation studies in the region. Based on present investigation, it is clear that earthquake recurrence activity in various geologic zones of peninsular India is distinct and varies considerably between its cratonic and rifting zones. The study identifies the likely hazards due to the possibility of moderate to large earthquakes in peninsular India and also presents the influence of spatial rate variation in the seismic activity of this region. This paper presents the influence of source zone characterization and recurrence rate variation pattern on the maximum earthquake magnitude estimation. The results presented in the paper provide a useful basis for probabilistic seismic hazard studies and microzonation studies in peninsular India.     

Mixing Methodologies in Seismic Hazard Assessment via a Logic Tree Procedure: An Application for Eastern Spain

This study provides a procedure for assessing seismic hazardand uncertainties in regions that are characterised by a large non-instrumental earthquakedatabase and a seismic and tectonic behaviour which doesn't allow an evident seismic zonation.This procedure is a synthesis of the non-zoning or non-parametric methodology (using extremevalues distribution functions as proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, 1966) and the zoning orparametric methodology (using the theorem of total probability as proposed by Cornell, 1968)via a logic tree procedure taking into consideration the advantages offered by each of these.Taking the area which we shall describe as the east coast of Spain and surrounding inland areas,an application was made and a specific logic tree was developed in order to solve the problems anduncertainties related to the evaluation of the seismic hazard using both methodologies. The use of thelogic tree allowed the systematisation of a large number of solutions obtained. A number of relevantresults were obtained which show that in some cases there are great differences in the seismichazard results provided by the non-zoning and the zoning methodologies. In these cases, mean value andstandard deviation of the obtained results provide an intermediate solution to the over-conservativeestimation provided by the non-zoning methodology and the lowest results provided by the zoningmethodology. In other cases results provided by both methodologies are significantly closer.In any case, synthesis among both methodologies gives a wider knowledge of the uncertaintiesassociated with the seismic hazard results. Finally uncertainties increase with the decreaseof the annual probability of exceedence and in sites with a seismic history of large size earthquakes.     

An overview on the seismic zonation and microzonation studies in India

The present study presents a review on the progressive development of the seismic zonation map of India both from official agencies and also from independent individual studies. The zonation map have been modified and updated regularly with the occurrence of major destructive earthquakes over the years in the Indian subcontinent with the addition of new data. This study discusses the criteria chosen for the progressive zonation and the major earthquakes that were responsible for retrospection of the earlier published maps. The seismic zonation maps of India have also been prepared by various independent workers by adopting different approaches to achieve the purpose of the zonation. Despite the endeavors from various sources to provide a solution for the problem of earthquake hazards in India, there were many limitations on the zonation map as it gives the picture at a regional scale mostly on the bedrock level without addressing the local site conditions. But nevertheless, the seismic zonation map gives basic guidelines for any region to know the hazard scenario and if any city or urban population is under threat from seismic point of view, further site specific seismic microzonation may be carried out. In the International scenario, the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) in 1999 prepared a hazard map for world in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, but it turned out to be an underestimation of the hazard parameter when compared with the observed PGA. To tackle the problem of seismic hazards, there was a need to have a detail study on the local site conditions in terms of its geological, geophysical and geotechnical properties. With the advent of better instrumentation and knowledge on the mechanics of earthquakes, it was possible to identify zones of hazards at a local level and this gives rise to the study of seismic microzonation. Seismic microzonation work has been carried out in India in some of the strategic important mega cities and industrial build up that has the potential of being damaged from future earthquakes, as has been shown in the past. Though the microzonation map is not the final output map, as it can still be updated at later stage with more input data, it does provide a more realistic picture on the site specific seismic hazard.     

Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c)

The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the “big picture” of regional seismogenesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intraplate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered.     

Seismic hazard maps for the U.K.

Past studies of seismic hazard in the U.K. that have used modern probabilistic methods of hazard assessment have been site-specific studies, mostly in connection with nuclear installations. There has been a need for general-purpose maps of seismic hazard to show relative variation of exposure within the U.K. and to give some guidance on absolute values. Such maps have now been produced, incorporating, for the first time, the wealth of new information on historical earthquakes in Britain that has been gathered over the last 15 years. The hazard calculations were undertaken using a new computer code based on the USGS program SEISRISK III, but incorporating a logic tree approach to model variation in the input parameters (e.g. focal depth) or uncertainty in the formulation of the model (e.g. attenuation parameters). An innovative approach was taken to the formulation of seismic source zones, in which two overlapping models were employed. The first of these uses relatively broad source zones based loosely on an interpretation of seismicity and tectonics, while the second uses numerous small zones that reflect the locations of past significant earthquakes. This double approach (using the logic tree methodology) has the merit of both considering the general trend of earthquake activity as well as focusing in on known danger spots. The results show that the areas of highest hazard are western Scotland, north-western England and Wales, where the intensity with 90% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years is 6 EMS.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula

The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults.     

Development of spectral hazard maps for a proposed revision of the Indonesian Seismic Building Code

The need to revise the current Indonesian Seismic Hazard Map contained in Indonesian Earthquake Resistant Building Code SNI 03-1726-2002 which partially adopts the concept of UBC 1997, was driven among others by the desire to better reflect the potential larger earthquake disasters faced by the nation in the future. The much larger than maximum predicted Aceh Earthquake (M _w 9.0–9.3) of 2004, followed by the destruction observed during the 2005 Nias Earthquake (M _w 8.7) urgently underline to need to consider the new conceptual approach and technological shift shown in the transition of UBC 1997 to IBC 2006. This paper presents research works for developing spectral hazard maps for Indonesia. Some improvements in seismic hazard analysis were implemented using recent seismic records. Seismic sources were modeled by background, fault, and subduction zones by considering a truncated exponential model, pure characteristic model or both models. A logic tree method was performed to account for the epistemic uncertainty and several attenuation functions were selected. Maps of PGA and spectral accelerations for a short period (0.2 s) and for a 1-s period were then developed using a probabilistic approach. The maps will be proposed as a revision for the current seismic hazard map in the Indonesian Seismic Building Code.     

Testing a new hybrid approach to seismic hazard assessment: an application to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy)

We tested a new hybrid method for the evaluation of seismic hazard. A recently proposed fault segmentation and earthquake recurrence model of peninsular Italy suggests that the interval for which the local historical catalogue is complete is shorter than the mean recurrence time of individual large faults (1000 years), or at the most comparable. These new findings violate the fundamental assumption of historical probabilistic seismic hazard methods that the historical record is representative of the activity of all the seismogenic sources. The hybrid method we propose uses time-dependent modelling of the major earthquakes and catalogue-based historical probabilistic estimates for all minor events. We assume that the largest earthquakes are characteristic for individual discrete fault segments, model their probability of occurrence by a renewal process and compute the shaking associated with each of them with a simplified procedure. Then we calculate the probability of exceeding a given threshold of peak ground acceleration for specific sites as the aggregate probability of occurrence of large characteristic earthquakes and minor shocks. We apply the method to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy) performing the calculations for five major towns. The exposure to seismic hazard of Reggio Calabria, Catanzaro and Vibo Valentia, which locate close to recently activated large faults, decreases with respect to traditional time-independent estimates. On the contrary, an increase of seismic hazard is obtained for Castrovillari, which locates in an area where large faults displaying Holocene activity have been recently recognized but no significant earthquake is reported in the historical catalogue. Cosenza has the highest probability to experience a significant peak ground acceleration with both the new hybrid and the traditional approaches. We wish to stress that the present results should be interpreted only in terms of the differences between the new hybrid and the traditional approaches, not for their absolute values, and that they are not intended to be used for updating or modifying the current national seismic zonation.     

The New Seismic Zonation Map for the Territory of Armenia

In the present work a new, deterministic, seismic zonation map for the territory of Armenia is presented. It has been compiled on the basis of the newest seismological, geological and geophisical data. Creation of the map included: determination of a seismic hazard area for the territory of Armenia; compilation of a map of active faults; identification of active blocks; identification of seismic source zones; calculation of a seismic effect from the seismic source zones (SSZs). Seismic effect on the Earth's surface from the singled out SSZs is calculated in the form of an intensity of seismic influences expressed in units of MSK-64 scale, and horizontal soil accelerations expressed in fractions of gravity force acceleration (g). The map compiled will allow comparison between the deterministic model with a probabilistic seismic zonation model for the territory of Armenia (in preparation), in order to analyze the western and eastern standards of seismic hazard assessment on the basis of the same complete data base.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Kakrapar atomic power station, Gujarat, India

Seismic ground motion caused by earthquakes mainly affects the constructions and structures around its area of influence. In this context, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a scientific step towards the safety analysis of any major construction such as nuclear power plant. Thus, the present study focused to estimate seismic hazard level at different probabilities for Kakrapar nuclear power plant located in the Western India. The hazard curves for the study area are developed following the procedure of PSHA suggested by Cornell–McGuire. Three source zones, Narmada-Tapti zone (NTZ), Rann of Kuchchh (ROK), and west passive margin (WPM), are classified on the basis of seismicity and tectonic setting of the study area. The estimated maximum magnitude (m _max) for NTZ, ROK, and WPM are 6.9 ± 0.57, 6.5 ± 0.64, and 6.1 ± 0.64, respectively. Logic tree approach has been used for the development of hazard curves to account the epistemic uncertainties associated with the analysis. For maximum credible earthquake [MCE, i.e., the probability of exceedance of 2 % in 50 years (return period of ~2,500 years)], the peak spectral acceleration (i.e., PSA at 0.2 s) expected around 5 km of the Kakrapar nuclear power plant (site) is 0.23 g from all source zones; however, at exact site location, it is 0.18 g. The PSA values due to NTZ, ROK, and WPM based on MCE are 0.22, 0.065, and 0.052 g, respectively. In case of design-based earthquake (DBE, i.e., 50 % probability in 50 years (return period of ~110 years)), the calculated maximum spectral acceleration (SA) from all source zones is about 0.045 g. The PSA distribution for the DBE from the NTZ has reached a maximum value of 0.042 g; however, PSA for ROK and WPM is considerably low with a maximum value of 0.022 and 0.021 g, respectively. Considering the MCE and DBE, the estimated PSA at 0.2 s has a highest value of ~0.23 g from all source zones. Spectral accelerations (SAs) correspond to different periods are presented, and SA plots for NTZ zone can be considered as response spectra for the KAPS site. Deaggregation of PSHA in the present study is also discussed. PGA values reported in seismic zonation map and global seismic hazard analysis program around the present study area range from 0.05 to 0.2 g which is slightly lower than the peak acceleration obtained in this study. The results of this study would facilitate in the performance of the site-specific seismic probabilistic safety analysis.     

Multiple source and attenuation relationships for evaluation of deterministic seismic hazard: logic tree approach considering local site effects

The most important seismic hazard parameters required to demarcate seismic zones are the peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (SA). The two approaches for evaluation of seismic hazard are the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). The present study evaluates the seismic hazard of the South Indian Peninsular region based on the DSHA methodology. In order to consider the epistemic uncertainties in a better manner, a logic tree approach was adopted in the evaluation of seismic hazard. Two types of seismic sources and three different attenuation relations were used in the analysis. The spatial variation of PHA (mean and 84th percentile values) and SA values for 1 Hz and 10 Hz at bedrock level (84th percentile values) for the entire study area were evaluated and the results are presented here. The surface level peak ground acceleration (PGA) values will be different from that of the bedrock level values due to the local site conditions. The PGA values at ground surface level were evaluated for four different National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program site classes by considering the non-linear site response of different soil types. The response spectra for important cities in South India were also prepared using the deterministic approach and the results are presented in this paper.     

Influence of slow active faults in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: the northwestern margin of the València trough

Areas of low strain rate are typically characterized by low to moderate seismicity. The earthquake catalogs for these regions do not usually include large earthquakes because of their long recurrence periods. In cases where the recurrence period of large earthquakes is much longer than the catalog time span, probabilistic seismic hazard is underestimated. The information provided by geological and paleo-seismological studies can potentially improve seismic hazard estimation through renewal models, which assume characteristic earthquakes. In this work, we compare the differences produced when active faults in the northwestern margin of the València trough are introduced in hazard analysis. The differences between the models demonstrate that the introduction of faults in zones characterized by low seismic activity can give rise to significant changes in the hazard values and location. The earthquake and fault seismic parameters (recurrence interval, segmentation or fault length that controls the maximum magnitude earthquake and time elapsed since the last event or T_e) were studied to ascertain their effect on the final hazard results. The most critical parameter is the recurrence interval, where shorter recurrences produce higher hazard values. The next most important parameter is the fault segmentation. Higher hazard values are obtained when the fault has segments capable of producing big earthquakes. Finally, the least critical parameter is the time elapsed since the last event (T_e), when longer T_e produces higher hazard values.     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Panama

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps in term of Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity are derived by applying the Cornell-McGuire method to four earthquake source zones in Panama and adjacent areas. The maps contain estimates of the maximum MM intensity for return periods of 5, 25 and 100 yr. The earthquake phenomenon is based on the point source model. The probabilistic iso-intensity map for a return period of 50 yr indicates that the Panama Suture Zone (PSZ) could experience a maximum (MM) intensity IX, and the Panama Fracture Zone (PFZ) an MM intensity VIII, for the rest of the area this varies from IV up to VIII. The present study intends to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches, to stimulate discussions and suggestions on the data base, assumptions and inputs, and path for the risk based assessment of the seismic hazard in the site selection and in the design of common buildings and engineering.     

An estimate of probabilistic seismic hazard for five cities in Greece by using the parametric-historic procedure

A probabilistic procedure was applied to assess seismic hazard for the sites of five Greek cities (Athens, Heraklion, Patras, Thessaloniki and Volos) using peak ground acceleration as the hazard parameter. The methodology allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or a combination of both. It has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at a given site and does not require any specification of seismic sources or/and seismic zones. A new relation for the attenuation of peak ground acceleration was employed for the shallow seismicity in Greece. The computations involved the area- and site-specific parts. When assessing magnitude recurrence for the areas surrounding the five cities, the maximum magnitude, m_max, was estimated using a recently derived equation. The site-specific results were expressed as probabilities that a given peak ground acceleration value will be exceeded at least once during a time interval of 1, 50 and 100 years at the sites of the cities. They were based on the maximum peak ground acceleration values computed by assuming the occurrence of the strongest possible earthquake (of magnitude m_max) at a very short distance from the site and using the mean value obtained with the help of the attenuation law. This gave 0.24 g for Athens, 0.53 g for Heraklion (shallow) and 0.39 g Heraklion (intermediate-depth seismicity), 0.30 g for Patras, 0.35 g for Thessaloniki and 0.30 g for Volos. In addition, the probabilities of exceedance of the estimated maximum peak ground acceleration values were calculated for the sites. The standard deviation of the new Greek attenuation law demonstrates the uncertainty and large variation of predicted peak ground acceleration values.