Neotectonics of the Dinarides–Pannonian Basin transition and possible earthquake sources in the Banja Luka epicentral area

This study provides evidence for post-5 Ma shortening in the transition area between the Dinarides fold-and-thrust belt and the Pannonian Basin and reviews possible earthquake sources for the Banja Luka epicentral area (northern Bosnia and Herzegovina) where the strongest instrumentally recorded earthquake (M_L 6.4) occurred on 27 October 1969. Geological, geomorphological and reflection seismic data provide evidence for a contractional reactivation of Late Palaeogene to Middle Miocene normal faults at slip rates below 0.1 mm/a. This reactivation postdates deposition of the youngest sediments in the Pannonian Basin of Pontian age (c. 5 Ma). Fault plane solutions for the main 1969 Banja Luka earthquake (M_L 6.4) and its largest foreshock (M_L 6.0) indicate reverse faulting along ESE–WNW-striking nodal planes and generally N–S trending pressure axes. The spatial distribution of epicentres and focal depths, analyses of the macroseismic field and fault-plane solutions for several smaller events suggest on-going shortening in the internal Dinarides. Seismic deformation of the upper crust is also associated with strike-slip faults, likely related to the NE–SW trending, sinistral Banja Luka fault. Possibly, this fault transfers contraction between adjacent segments of the Dinarides thrust system. The study area represents the seismically most active region of the Dinarides apart from the Adriatic Sea coast and the bend zone around Zagreb. We propose that on-going thrusting in the internal Dinarides thrust system takes up a portion of the current Adria–Europe convergence.     

Present-day Horizontal Mobility in the Serbian Part of the Pannonian Basin; Inferences from the Geometric Analysis of Deformations

In tectonically complex environments, such as the Pannonian Basin surrounded by the Alps–Dinarides and Carpathians orogens, monitoring of recent deformations represents very challenging matter. Efficient quantification of active continental deformations demands the use of a multidisciplinary approach, including neotectonic, seismotectonic and geodetic methods. The present-day tectonic mobility in the Pannonian Basin is predominantly controlled by the northward movement of the Adria micro-plate, which has produced compressional stresses that were party accommodated by the Alps-Dinarides thrust belt and partly transferred towards its hinterland. Influence of thus induced stresses on the recent strain field, deformations and tectonic mobility in the southern segment of the Pannonian Basin has been investigated using GPS measurements of the horizontal mobility in the Vojvodina area (northern Serbia).     

Geothermal model of Earth's crust and lithosphere for the territory of Yugoslavia: Some tectonic implications

Summary Deep sounding seismic data along nine profiles and measured values of the terrestrial heat flow were used to construct a geothermal model of the crust for the territory of Yugoslavia. The obtained data indicate that the lowest temperatures (250 – 350°C) at the crust base are in the region of the Outer Dinarides and the highest (900 – 1000°C) in the region of the Pannonian Basin and the Serbian-Macedonian Massif. The difference is associated with the changing heat flow which reaches the Earth's crust from the upper mantle. Based on the crustal temperature distribution, an approximate lithospheric thickness was estimated for the first time for the entire territory of Yugoslavia. It is largest under the Outer Dinarides, where it is up to 260 kilometres, and smallest under the Pannonian Basin and the Serbian-Macedonian Massif, only 40 – 50 kilometres.Before the separation of Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia.Presented at the International Meeting on Terrestrial Heat Flow and the Structure of Lithosphere, Bechyn Castle, Czech Republic, September 2 – 7, 1991.     

Seismotectonic and refraction seismic investigations in the border region between the Eastern Alps and the Pannonian Basin

Focal solutions of four strong earthquakes and P signals of twenty-four smaller shocks of the active Mur-Mürz Valley, the Semmering Pass and the Vienna Basin. An equivalent slip rate of 0.03 This feature agrees with the model of a subsiding Pannonian Basin. An equivalent slip rate of 0.03 cm/year is roughly estimated from earthquake data 1903–1978. This rate does not include the creep rate, but it gives an idea of the magnitude of speed of geological processes in this area.Refraction seismic data from the Alpine Longitudinal Profile 75 shows a low velocity zone in the upper crust of the seismic active East Alpine area but not in the aseismic part of the Pannonian Basin.The eastern margin of the Eastern Alps and the Carpathians limits the Pannonian Basin, which has a special and interesting geological history. Many authors (Szadezky-Kardoss, 1966;Stegena, Ceszy andHorvàth, 1975) presented models of the genesis of the Pannonian Basin. They apply the concept of the mantle diapirs to explain the following facts:subsiding of the Pannonian Plate in comparison to the Alps, high terrestrial heat flow within the Pannonian Plate, decrease of the Moho depth from 40 km below the Eastern border of the Alps to 27 km below the Pannonian Basin. They claim that the Alpine-Carpathian interarc and basin represent the final stage of an orogenetic system where subcrustal erosion leads to a thinning of the crust. Consequently the surface subsides and is covered by young sediments. They proved that this subsidence and sedimentation is more or less in isostatic equilibrium. The aim of this paper is to provide new arguments using focal solutions and refraction seismic investigations.     

Seasonal variability in mesopause region temperatures over Fort Collins, CO (41°N, 105°W) based on lidar observations, 1990 through 2007

Nearly 900 nocturnal temperature profiles (85–105 km) from the Colorado State University Na lidar at Fort Collins, CO (40.59N, 105.14W) from 1990 to 2007. After the removal of an episodic warming attributable to Mt. Pinatubo eruption, the time series is analyzed as the sum of the climatological mean, annual and semiannual oscillation, solar cycle effect and trends along with possible annual/semiannual modulation of the latter two. The direct seasonal variation is consistent with the concept of the two-level mesopause. The trends in summer and winter are comparable 90–96 km at −0.15±0.1 K/year. The summer trend turns positive above 96 km. The winter trend is negative with minimum of −0.3 K/year at 100 km but positive at 104 km. The negative trend values are a factor of five smaller than an earlier analysis of the early part of this data due to removal of an episodic event.     

Crustal structure in the Falcón Basin area, northwestern Venezuela, from seismic and gravimetric evidence

The Falcón Basin in northwestern Venezuela has a complex geological history driven by the interactions between the South American and Caribbean plates. Igneous intrusive bodies that outcrop along the axis of the basin have been associated with crustal thinning, and gravity modeling has shown evidence for a significantly thinned crust beneath the basin. In this study, crustal scale seismic refraction/wide-angle reflection data derived from onshore/offshore active seismic experiments are interpreted and forward-modeled to generate a P-wave velocity model for a 450 km long profile. The final model shows thinning of the crust beneath the Falcón Basin where depth to Moho decreases to 27 km from a value of 40 km about 100 km to the south. A deeper reflected phase on the offshore section is interpreted to be derived from the downgoing Caribbean slab. Velocity values were converted to density and the resulting gravimetric response was shown to be consistent with the regional gravity anomaly. The crustal thinning proposed here supports a rift origin for the Falcón Basin.     

A 14-year monthly climatology and trend in the 35–65 km altitude range from Rayleigh Lidar temperature measurements at a low latitude station

A sodium resonance lidar at 589 nm has been operated in São José dos Campos, Brazil (23°S, 46°W) since 1972 mainly for studies related to the origin, chemistry and dynamics of the mesospheric sodium layer. Beginning in 1993, the improved laser capability has also enabled the processing of the Rayleigh signal from which the temperatures from 35 to 65 km are retrieved on a nightly mean basis. We used these nightly profiles to determine the monthly temperature profiles from 1993 to 2006. The mean temperature characteristics for each year and for the whole period are obtained. Seasonal thermal amplitude is small (6 K peak to peak at 40 and 60 km). Compared with the MSISE-90 model, a large difference is noted, with temperature lower than the model below the stratopause and higher above. Also the seasonal variation has a large difference with better agreement occurring around local winter, but with temperatures higher by 8–10 K at the equinoxes. The semiannual component is dominant over the annual at all altitudes. Linear trends with decreasing temperature of 1.09, 2.29 and 1.42 K/decade are observed at 40, 50 and 60 km, respectively.     

OSL dating of paleoshorelines at Lagkor Tso, western Tibet

Lagkor Tso, a saline lake located south of Gertse in western Tibet exhibits spectacular flights of paleoshorelines. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating on quartz using the single-aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol from five paleoshoreline deposits shows that the lake level was 130 m higher than the present lake surface 5.2 ka ago. The lake level dropped rapidly by 25 m between 5.2 ka and 3.7 ka ago. Lake shrinkage further accelerated between 3.7 ka and 3.2 ka ago, when the lake level was just 74 m above the present lake surface. Luminescence characteristics and problematic samples are discussed.     

A report on long-term trends and variabilities in middle atmospheric temperature over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E)

The present study reports long-term variabilities and trends in the middle atmospheric temperature (March 1998–2008) derived from Rayleigh backscattered signals received by the Nd:YAG lidar system at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E). The monthly mean temperature compositely averaged for the years 1998–2008 shows maximum temperature of 270 K in the months of March–April and September at altitudes between 45 and 55 km. The altitude profile of trend coefficients estimated from the 10 years of temperature observations using regression analysis shows that there exists cooling at the rate with 1σ uncertainty of 0.12±0.1 K/year in the lower stratospheric altitudes (35–42 km) and 0.2±0.08 K/year at altitudes near 55–60 km. The trend is nearly zero (no significant cooling or warming) at altitudes 40–55 km. The regression analysis reveals the significant ENSO response in the lower stratosphere (1 K/SOI) and also in mesosphere (0.6 K/SOI). The solar cycle response shows negative maxima of 1.5 K/100F10.7 units at altitudes 36 km, 41 km and 1 K/100F10.7 units at 57 km. The response is positive at mesospheric altitude near 67 km (1.3 K/100F10.7 units). The amplitudes and phases of semiannual, annual and quasi-biennial oscillations are estimated using least squares method. The semiannual oscillation shows larger amplitudes at altitudes near 35, 45, 62 and 74 km whereas the annual oscillation peaks at 70 km. The quasi-biennial oscillations show larger amplitudes below 35 km and above 70 km. The phase profiles of semiannual and annual oscillations show downward propagation.     

Analysis of central western Europe deformation using GPS and seismic data

The kinematic field of central western Europe is characterized by relatively small movements (around 1–2 mm/year) and diffuse seismicity with earthquakes occurring mostly in the shallow crust (within 15 km), prevalently concentrated along the Alps and the European Cenozoic Rift System (ECRIS). In order to study and constrain the current crustal kinematic field we reconstructed the velocity and the strain field using permanent GPS stations, belonging to different networks (AGNES, EUREF, REGAL, RGP). The 2D strain rate tensor has been calculated using the method of least-squares collocation. Our results show that the area of maximum compression is located along the Alpine chain, where maximum values of 7 ± 2 nstrain/year are found, while maximum extension is measured between the Armorican Massif and the Massif Central, where values of 4 ± 2 nstrain/year are reached.The earthquakes with M > 3.0, have been used to estimate the seismic strain rates, while the style of the seismic deformation was reconstructed from the fault plane solutions (FPS) available from the literature. Relatively high values of seismic strain rates (around 10 nstrain/year) are measured along the Alpine Chain and the ECRIS. Results obtained by geodetic and seismic data are quite in agreement and reflect the different tectonic evolution of the geological features characterizing the area of study. The orientation of the compressional geodetic and seismic strain axes are NW-SE in most of the area of study, on account of the action of plate boundary forces. A rotation of the same axes to N-S direction along the eastern Alps, possibly related to the Adria convergence, is found.     

Collision of the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta with the Burma Arc: Implications for earthquake hazard

We take a fresh look at the topography, structure and seismicity of the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta (GBD)–Burma Arc collision zone in order to reevaluate the nature of the accretionary prism and its seismic potential. The GBD, the world's largest delta, has been built from sediments eroded from the Himalayan collision. These sediments prograded the continental margin of the Indian subcontinent by  400 km, forming a huge sediment pile that is now entering the Burma Arc subduction zone. Subduction of oceanic lithosphere with > 20 km sediment thickness is fueling the growth of an active accretionary prism exposed on land. The prism starts at an apex south of the GBD shelf edge at  18°N and widens northwards to form a broad triangle that may be up to 300 km wide at its northern limit. The front of the prism is blind, buried by the GBD sediments. Thus, the deformation front extends 100 km west of the surface fold belt beneath the Comilla Tract, which is uplifted by 3–4 m relative to the delta. This accretionary prism has the lowest surface slope of any active subduction zone. The gradient of the prism is only  0.1°, rising to  0.5° in the forearc region to the east. This low slope is consistent with the high level of overpressure found in the subsurface, and indicates a very weak detachment. Since its onset, the collision of the GBD and Burma Arc has expanded westward at  2 cm/yr, and propagated southwards at  5 cm/yr. Seismic hazard in the GBD is largely unknown. Intermediate-size earthquakes are associated with surface ruptures and fold growth in the external part of the prism. However, the possibility of large subduction ruptures has not been accounted for, and may be higher than generally believed. Although sediment-clogged systems are thought to not be able to sustain the stresses and strain-weakening behavior required for great earthquakes, some of the largest known earthquakes have occurred in heavily-sedimented subduction zones. A large earthquake in 1762 ruptured  250 km of the southern part of the GBD, suggesting large earthquakes are possible there. A large, but poorly documented earthquake in 1548 damaged population centers at the northern and southern ends of the onshore prism, and is the only known candidate for a rupture of the plate boundary along the subaerial part of the GBD–Burma Arc collision zone.     

Seasonal oscillations in mesospheric temperatures at low-latitudes

Using 3 years of high-quality temperature measurements (2002–2004) recorded from Maui, HI (20.8°N), we have investigated the characteristics of mesospheric seasonal oscillations at low-latitudes. Measurements of the near-infrared OH (6,2) and O₂ (0,1) nightglow emission layers (centered at 87 and 94 km) independently reveal a distinct semi-annual oscillation (SAO) and annual oscillation (AO) with amplitudes of 3.8 and 2.0 K, respectively. An observed asymmetry in the seasonal variation of the nocturnal mean, previously reported by Taylor et al. [2005. Characterization of the semi-annual-oscillation in mesospheric temperatures at low-latitudes. Advances in Space Research 35, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2005.05.111] from this site is shown to be due to a superposed AO of amplitude 50% of the SAO signature. Detailed investigations of the local-time variation of the SAO amplitude and phase combined with TIME-GCM simulations of the seasonal variation of the diurnal tide strongly suggest a large local-time dependence of the amplitude (but not phase) of the observed SAO. These data indicate that the true mean temperature SAO amplitude could be as high as 7 K at this latitude.     

From regional seismic hazard to “scenario earthquakes” for seismic microzoning: A new methodological tool for the Celano Project

We present the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and disaggregation analysis aimed to understand the dominant magnitudes and source-to-site distances of earthquakes that control the hazard at the Celano site in the Abruzzo region of central Italy. Firstly, we calculated a peak ground acceleration map for the central Apennines area, by using a model of seismogenic sources defined on geological-structural basis. The source model definition and the probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation at the regional scale (central Apennines) were obtained using three different seismicity models (Gutenberg–Richter model; characteristic earthquake model; hybrid model), consistent with the available seismological information. Moreover, a simplified time-dependent hypothesis has been introduced, computing the conditional probability of earthquakes occurrence by Brownian passage time distributions.Subsequently, we carried out the disaggregation analysis, with a modified version of the SEISRISK III code, in order to separate the contribution of each source to the total hazard.The results show the percentage contribution to the Celano hazard of the various seismogenic sources, for different expected peak ground acceleration classes. The analysis was differentiated for close (distance from Celano <20 km) and distant (distance from Celano >20 km) seismogenic sources. We propose three different “scenario earthquakes”, useful for the site condition studies and for the seismic microzoning study: (1) large (M=6.6) local (Celano-epicentre distance 16 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 590 years; (2) moderate (M=5.5) local (Celano-epicentre distance 7.5 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 500 years; and (3) large (M=6.6) distant (Celano-epicentre distance 24 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 980 years.The probabilistic and time-dependent approach to the definition of the “scenario earthquakes” changes clearly the results in comparison to traditional deterministic analysis, with effects in terms of engineering design and seismic risk reduction.     

Simultaneous inversion for velocity structure and hypocenters in Slovenia

We use nearly 2100 P-wave arrival times from 166 local earthquakes to investigate the 3-D compressional velocity structure of the upper crust of Slovenia using the simultaneous inversion algorithm developed by (Michelini and McEvilly, 1991). Remarkable and stable features of the resolved model are the relatively high velocities in western Slovenia and the low velocities in central Slovenia, SE of the Ljubljana basin. The boundary between these two anomalies follows approximately the NNW-SSE direction that coincides with the general strike of the External Dinarides. We interpret this feature as the upper crustal expression caused by the tectonic processes occurring along the active margin of the Adria promontory/microplate.     

Neogene volcanic activity of western Syria and its relationship with Arabian plate kinematics

The Cenozoic (mostly Neogene) volcanic activity in Syria is part of the extensive magmatism that took place in the Mashrek Region, Middle East, from upper Eocene to Holocene (40–0.0005 Ma). Samples in western Syria are mostly high TiO₂ (TiO₂ 1.8–3.7 wt.%) alkaline mafic rocks (basanites, hawaiites and alkali basalts) plus rare transitional/tholeiitic basalts and basaltic andesites) with within-plate-like trace element signature.On the basis of incompatible trace element content, the volcanic activity in Syria has been divided into two stages: the first lasting from 25 to 5 Ma and the second from 5 to recent times. Indeed, the Syrian lavas show incompatible trace element content increasing with decreasing age from 25 to 5 Ma, followed by an abrupt decrease to low values roughly at the Miocene–Pliocene boundary. This temporal shift in composition is related to major tectonic re-organization occurred during upper Miocene.The proposed petrogenetic model invokes three steps: (a) passive upwelling of the shallow asthenosphere during the development of the Dead Sea transform fault system. Different degrees of partial melting were followed by variable extents of fractional crystallization and limited upper crustal contamination; (b) the Miocene–Pliocene boundary tectonic change enhanced passive decompression of the same sources and a consequent increase in degree of partial melting resulting in low incompatible trace element content of the relatively high-volume liquids; (c) after this phase, the incompatible trace element content in the basaltic magmas increased as consequence of fractional crystallization processes.Major and trace element content similarities with the rest of the circum-Mediterranean igneous rocks are consistent with a common relatively shallow origin for the Cenozoic anorogenic magmatism of the entire circum-Mediterranean area (the so-called Common Magmatic Reservoir). Because much of the igneous activity in the studied area is concentrated near the Dead Sea fault, the origin of Cenozoic magmatism in Syria (and in the rest of the circum-Mediterranean area) reflects a strong lithospheric control on the loci of partial melting. Mantle plumes from lower mantle and/or north-westward channelling of the Afar mantle plume is not needed to explain volcanic activity in Syria and the Mashrek area.     

Long-term variability in mesopause region temperatures over Fort Collins, Colorado (41°N, 105°W) based on lidar observations from 1990 through 2007

During 1990–2007, there were 894 lidar observations of nocturnal mesopause region temperatures over Fort Collins, Colorado. In an earlier analysis with data to April 1997, an unexpected episodic warming, peaking in 1993 with a maximum value over 10 K, was reported and attributed to the Mount Pinatubo eruption in June 1991. With all data, long-term temperature trends from a 7-parameter linear regression analysis including solar cycle effect and long-term trends leads to a cooling of as much as 6.8 K/decade at 100 km, consistent with some reported observations but larger than model predictions. Including the observed episodic warming response in an 11-parameter nonlinear regression analysis reduces the maximum long-term cooling trends to 1.5 K/decade at 91 km, with magnitude and altitude dependences consistent with the prediction of two models, Spectral Mesosphere/Lower Thermosphere Model (SMLTM) and Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). In addition, the mid-latitude middle-atmospheric response to solar flux variability in Thermosphere–Ionosphere-Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED)/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperatures is presented.     

Seasonal variation of space–time parameters of internal gravity waves at Kharkiv (49°30′N, 36°51′E)

Internal gravity waves (IGWs) over Kharkiv (49°30′N, 36°51′E) have been studied by using an automatic goniometer of a meteor radar (AG MR), with its antenna directed to the East. The AG MR carries out Doppler measurements of the radial drift velocity and the position of the reflecting area of meteor trails. In order to obtain information about IGW parameters, an algorithm was used that processes the AG MR wind data by dividing the measured volume into several sub-volumes, and by carrying out wavelet analysis of wind variations in these areas. Results of 1 year (1987) of AG MR data show a good qualitative correspondence with literature results. There is an increase of IGW activity during the change of the zonal background wind in spring and autumn. It was found that the mean IGW horizontal phase velocity and predominating horizontal propagation direction change with season. However, the mean period (1.5 h), the dominant amplitude (30 m/s) and the vertical phase velocity do not strongly vary in the course of the year. The mean vertical and horizontal wavelengths were found to be 40 and 250 km, respectively.     

Temperature variability in central Mexico and its possible association to solar activity

Minimum extreme temperature variability from five meteorological stations in the central part of Mexico covering a period from 1920 to 1990 is examined. We found a correlation coefficient (r=0.65) between these temperature records and geomagnetic activity. Furthermore, by performing spectral analysis peaks were obtained with similar periodicities to those found in the sunspot number, the magnetic solar cycle, cosmic ray fluxes and geomagnetic activity; all of these phenomena are modulated by solar activity. Signals with periodicities comparable to those observed in El Niño and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation were also identified. We conclude that the solar signal is probably present in the minimum extreme temperature record of the central part of Mexico.     

The Polar Cap (PC) indices: Relations to solar wind parameters and global magnetic activity

The polar geomagnetic activity resulting from solar wind–magnetosphere interactions can be characterized the Polar Cap (PC) indices, PCN and PCS. PC index values are derived from polar magnetic variations calibrated on a statistical basis such that the index approximate values in units of mV/m of the interplanetary “geo-effective” (or “merging”) electric field (E_M) conveyed by the solar wind. The timing and amplitude relations of the PC index to solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters are reported. The solar wind effects are parameterized in terms of the geo-effective electric field (E_M) and the dynamical pressure (P_DYN). The PC index has a delayed and damped response to E_M variations and display saturation-like effects for E_M values exceeding 10 mV/m. Steady or slowly varying levels of solar wind dynamical pressure have little or no impact on the PC index above the effects related to E_M for which the solar wind velocity is also a factor. Sharp increases in the dynamical pressure generate impulsive variations in the PC index comprising a initial negative impulse of 5–10 min duration followed by a positive impulse lasting 10–20 min. Typical amplitudes of both the negative and the positive impulses are 0.2–0.5 units. A sharp decrease in the pressure produces the inverse sequence of pulses in the PC index. Auroral substorm activity represented by the AL index level has a marked influence on the average PC/E_M level at the transition from very quiet (AL0 nT) to disturbed conditions while more or less disturbed conditions (AL<−100 nT) have no systematic effect on the average PC/E_M values. At distinct substorm events the PC/E_M ratio has a minimum (0.8) in the pre-onset phase at around 20 min before substorm onset. The average ratio gradually increases in the expansion phase to reach a maximum value (1.1) at around 40 min after substorm onset (or 20 min after the largest (negative) peak in AL). At substorm recovery during the next 2 h the PC/E_M ratio decreases. Finally, we report on the application of polar magnetic variations to model the disturbance storm time (Dst) index development during magnetic storms by using the PC index as a source function to quantify the energy input to the ring current representing accumulated storm energy and characterized by the Dst index.