Statistical analysis of tectonic patterns in areal volcanism: The bunyaruguru volcanic field in West Uganda

A quantitative analysis was made of the spatial arrangement of 149explosion craters in the western rift of Uganda. A variety of methods demonstrate that the spatial pattern of the craters reveals significant structural patterns that have guided volcanism to the surface. It is shown that the east-west elements in the field affected location, and the main rift fault is resolved into two main components. Tentatively, a possible dextral transform fault is identified that affected the relative location of the two main zones of activity. Grouping techniques demonstrate that crater groups obey an exponential rank-size rule and allow a mapping of the craters into energy classes that reveals a concentric pattern of energy in the field. The effect of the topography on energy levels and crater size show that only topography greater than 11,000ft could have prevented all eruptive activity, but the smaller energies and craters are sensitive to height differences on the order of the height of the rift wall, about 1000ft. Total energy in each crater class size is roughly constant, and the field energy could create one or two single craters comparable in size to small central volcanoes.     

Application of Weibull model for redefined significant wave height distributions

It is well accepted that the parent distribution for individual ocean wave heights follows the Weibull model. However this model does not simulate significant wave height which is the average of the highest one-third of some ‘n’ (n- varies) wave heights in a wave record. It is now proposed to redefine significant wave height as average of the highest one-third of a constant number (n-constant, say,n = 100) of consecutive individual wave heights. The Weibull model is suggested for simulating redefined significant wave height distribution by the method of characteristic function. An empirical support of 100.00% is established by Χ²-test at 0.05 level of significance for 3 sets of data at 0900, 1200 and 1500 hrs at Valiathura, Kerala coast. Parametric relations have been derived for the redefined significant wave height parameters such as mean, maximum one-third average, extreme wave heights, return periods of an extreme wave height and the probability of realising an extreme wave height in a time less than the designated return period.     

降雨类型对浅层滑坡稳定性的影响

在降雨与浅层滑坡稳定性关系的研究中, 目前的研究往往忽略了降雨类型的影响.因此, 选取4种具有代表性的降雨类型: 均匀型、递增型、递减型以及峰值型为对象, 基于Rosso提出的降雨强度与地下水关系模型, 构建考虑降雨类型的浅层滑坡地下水位高度随降雨时间的变化关系, 研究不同降雨类型对浅层滑坡地下水位变化的影响.进而, 结合无限边坡理论, 建立浅层滑坡的稳定性计算模型, 研究不同降雨类型对浅层滑坡稳定性的影响.研究结果表明: 降雨类型对浅层滑坡稳定性的影响是明显的, 递增型降雨作用下的浅层滑坡安全系数最小, 其次是均匀型降雨, 再次是峰值型降雨, 最大的是递减型降雨; 同时在确定浅层滑坡临界降雨量和进行区域浅层滑坡易发性研究时降雨类型的影响不容忽视.      

An explanation of natural forest dieback based on the “pipe model” analogy

A decade of investigation of stand-level dieback ofmetrosideros in the Hawaiian montane rain forests has led to the theory that one of the major underlying causes is cohort senescence. A literature review shows that while there is little evidence of a senescence mechanism in polycarpic trees, the low vigor associated with the senescent state is correlated with a declining balance of photosynthesis to respiration. Specific Leaf Burden (SLB, cm³ of sapwood per g of leaf mass) is here defined as an index of respiring to photosynthesizing tissue. Using the assumptions of the pipe model theory, it is shown that SLB increases with stem elongation and is independent of tree diameter. Thus, the trees of a cohort that are the same height although variable in diameter will have the same carbon balance, as indexed by the SLB, and could be expected to decline synchronously, as stands ofMetrosideros do. Changes in growth patterns, deviating from the pipe model, that minimize the SLB as trees grow larger are identified. Research undertaken to test the assumptions of the pipe model and the conclusion of uniform SLB in a cohort of agingMetrosideros is described.     

A simple model for preliminary evaluation of rainfall-induced slope instability

Slope failures in the tropical regions, particularly Malaysia are commonly triggered by frequent rainfall. The tropical rainfall can be characterized as short and intense throughout the year, and prolonged and less intense during monsoon seasons. Under such circumstances, various rainfall patterns should be included in the analysis of rainfall-induced slope failure in the tropical regions. This paper is aimed to demonstrate a simple model for preliminary evaluation of rainfall-induced slope failure. The critical rainfall patterns for four typical types of soil were first determined. Seepage finite element analyses were conducted using the extreme rainfall of ten-year return period for Johor Bahru, Malaysia. The results showed that the ratio of rainfall intensity to soil saturated permeability (i.e., I/k_sat) plays an important role in determining the critical rainfall pattern. Two critical combinations of antecedent rainfall and major rainfall, 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 5-day, 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day antecedent rainfalls and the redistribution of the critical combination of antecedent rainfall and 1-day major rainfall were responsible for the formation of suction envelope in soil. The suction envelope, representing the worst suction distribution in soil, was used for the computation of factor of safety of soil slope through the modified infinite-slope–limit-equilibrium method. A model, PERISI, was developed based on the findings from numerical simulation. The suction envelope and factor of safety computed from the PERISI model showed good agreements with the results obtained from Seep/W and Slope/W computer programs and the results derived from the model of Rahardjo et al. developed in 1995.     

略论统计分析方法的灵活运用

统计分析是统计工作参与企业管理和提供领导决策最有成效的手段之一。统计分析有指数因素分析法和回归预测分析法。通过对统计数字和统计资料进行全面系统的分析．以揭示经济现象的本质和规律性，对提高企业管理水平和企业的经济效益，具有重要作用。     

Modeling Bedload Transport of Juvenile Bivalves: Predicted Changes in Distribution and Scale of Postlarval Dispersal

The potential consequences of bedload transport of postlarvae for patterns of distribution of marine invertebrates were explored by developing a bedload transport model for juvenile bivalves in a small estuary in New Jersey, USA. A simple numerical model of tidal current hydrodynamics was developed based on field measurements of shear stresses near the bottom. Burrowing behavior of bivalves was incorporated into the model of bedload transport by using estimates of entrainment rates of Gemma gemma and Mya arenaria in a laboratory flume, and jump lengths of the bivalves were estimated by methods previously developed for noncohesive particles. Based on the flood domination and strong gradient of shear stresses in the Navesink estuary, our model predicted that juvenile bivalves would accumulate in the center of the estuary, traveling up to several kilometers over 30 days. Field distributions of juvenile bivalves were consistent with the model predictions for other species of bivalves but not for G. gemma, for which field distributions of both <500- and >500-μm individuals were concentrated in the eastern end of the estuary. Differences between the bedload model and G. gemma distributions suggest that spatial variation in burrowing behavior or biological interactions are playing an important role in maintaining distribution patterns of this species in spite of high levels of bedload transport. This modeling approach is applicable to other juvenile benthic invertebrates that disperse as bedload and is a useful model against which to compare field observations of rates of transport and patterns of distribution and abundance.     

矿化富集中心地质因素多元统计分析及应用

本文导出了通过控矿地质因素逻辑信息法的研究来建立矿化富集中心数学模型的公式,使矿化富集中心数学模型与控矿地质因素定量地联系起来。还给出了单个矿化富集中心趋势面分析的数学模型和矿床空间分布模型。在这基础上,以某锡-多金属成矿带中某远景区的研究为例说明怎样应用矿化富集中心地质因素多元统计分析（逻辑信息法、趋势面分析、逐步回归分析和聚类分析）进行矿床统计预测。     

Estimates of Tsunami Risk Zones on the Coasts Adjacent to the East (Japan) Sea based on the Synthetic Catalogue

Prognostic characteristics of tsunamis in the East (Japan) Sea based on numerical simulations are investigated by using linear long wave theory. Due to the lack of observed data, the concept of the synthetic catalogue is applied to generate possible tsunami scenarios. It includes four real events that occurred in the East (Japan) Sea during the 20th century, 24 hypothetical tsunamigenic earthquakes located in the gap zones of the seismic map, and 76 idealized model ‘hydrodynamic’ sources covering the eastern part of the East (Japan) Sea uniformly. The tsunami wave height distributions along the East (Japan) Sea coastline due to these hypothetical events are computed. From the geographical distributions of tsunami wave height for all possible events, it is found that there exist several coastal locations where the tsunami risk is relatively lower than in other zones. The relation between the maximal value of the tsunami height and its average value is analyzed. It is found that the maximal tsunami height does not exceed the mean wave height times a constant. The uniform bounded curve for all areas can be obtained if the mean wave height is replaced by the modified mean wave height (1/3 of largest waves). The problem of quantitative definition of the prognostic tsunami wave height for each location based on the data from the synthetic catalogue is discussed. The results of tsunami wave height analysis based on the synthetic catalogue can be used as a tool for coastal disaster mitigation planning.     

New Applications of the Model of de Wijs in Regional Geochemistry

This paper is concerned with the lognormal, and its logbinomial approximation, in connection with a three-parameter version of the model of de Wijs. The three parameters are: overall average element concentration value (ξ), dispersion index (d), and apparent number of subdivisions of the environment (N). Multifractal theory produces new methods for estimating the parameters of this model. In practical applications, the frequency distribution of element concentration values for small rock samples is related to self-similar spatial variability patterns of the element in large regions or segments of the Earth's crust. The approach is illustrated by application to spatial variability of gold and arsenic in glacial till samples from southern Saskatchewan. It is shown that for these two elements the model of de Wijs is satisfied on a regional scale but degree of dispersion decreases rapidly toward the local, sample-size scale. Thus the apparent number of subdivisions (N) is considerably less than would be expected if degree of dispersion were to extend from regional to local scale. A random-cut variant of the model of de Wijs produces an empirical frequency distribution of relative element concentration values that can be related to random dispersion index     

Aftershock sequences of two great Sumatran earthquakes of 2004 and 2005 and simulation of the minor tsunami generated on September 12, 2007 in the Indian Ocean and its effect

We present the seismic energy, strain energy, frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and decay rate of aftershocks (p-value) for the aftershock sequences of the Andaman–Sumatra earthquakes of December 26, 2004 (M _w 9.3) and March 28, 2005 (M _w 8.7). The energy released in aftershocks of 2004 and 2005 earthquake was 0.135 and 0.365% of the energy of the respective mainshocks, while the strain release in aftershocks was 39 and 71% for the two earthquakes, respectively. The b-value and p-value indicate normal value of about 1. All these parameters are in normal range and indicate normal stress patterns and mechanical properties of the medium. Only the strain release in aftershocks was considerable. The fourth largest earthquake in this region since 2004 occurred in September 2007 off the southern coast of Island of Sumatra, generating a relatively minor tsunami as indicated by sea level gauges. The maximum wave amplitude as registered by the Padang, tide gauge, north of the earthquake epicenter was about 60 cm. TUNAMI-N2 model was used to investigate ability of the model to capture the minor tsunami and its effect on the eastern Indian Coast. A close comparison of the observed and simulated tsunami generation, propagation and wave height at tide gauge locations showed that the model was able to capture the minor tsunami phases. The directivity map shows that the maximum tsunami energy was in the southwest direction from the strike of the fault. Since the path of the tsunami for Indian coastlines is oblique, there were no impacts along the Indian coastlines except near the coast of epicentral region.     

On Preferential Flow, Channeling and Connectivity in Heterogeneous Porous Formations

This paper analyzes the emergence of channeling and preferential flow in heterogeneous porous media. Connectivity is studied through the statistical characterization of the length L of connected, high velocity patterns in both two-dimensional and three-dimensional media. A simple, physically based, fully analytic expression for the probability of L has been derived. It is found that the length L of connected, high velocity channels is flow-related and can be much larger than the conductivity integral scale I. Heterogeneity has a considerable impact on emergence of channeling patterns; connectivity is considerably enhanced in three-dimensional structures as compared to two-dimensional ones. The strong dependence on space dimensionality is a warning against the use of two-dimensional numerical models for assessing connectivity and preferential flow in heterogeneous media. The probability p(L) is employed in order to determine the early arrivals of the breakthrough curve at a given control plane; the simple model can be used for a preliminary assessment of preferential flow. Comparison with numerical simulations confirms that the main connectivity features were adequately captured by the model.     

Patterns of deformed early lineations over later folds formed by buckling and flattening

The patterns of deformed early lineations (L₁) over later folds (F₂) can be classified into several morphological types depending on the nature of variation of L₁ F₂ over the folds. The field relations indicate that the folds under consideration are neither shear folds nor parallel folds modified by flattening. The lineation patterns are therefore interpreted in terms of an empirical model of simultaneous buckling and flattening in which it is assumed that (i) the central surface of the folded layer remains a sine curve in transverse profile, (ii) the ratio of rates of buckle shortening to homogeneous strain is proportional to sin 2a, with a as the dip angle and (iii) the progressive deformation is coaxial with the Z-axis of bulk strain parallel to the planar segments of the early folds. The model gives an insight into the relative importance of different physical factors which control the development of dissimilar lineation patterns. Not all lineation patterns are explicable by this simplified model. Thus complex patterns with variable L₁ F₂ along the fold axis may develop by a progressive rotation of the geometrically defined fold hinge through successive material lines. The theoretical results have been applied to interpret the lineation patterns in Central Rajasthan, India. It is concluded that L₁ was initially very close to the E-ESE trending subhorizontal Z-axis of bulk deformation during F₂-folding and that the X-axis was subhorizontal or gently plunging with a N-NNE trend.     

材料表面非线性振荡时间序列的相空间重构

在许多固态材料的表面存在着一种天然的非线性振荡花样，这些花样经计算机图像处理在时间和空间上呈现明显的分形特征。利用普通光学显微镜对Cu—Zn—Al合金表面的金相组织进行观察和分析，用高速摄像机拍摄了典型的振荡现象。借助计算机图像处理技术系统地研究该非线性振荡现象的形貌、结构特征及形成动力学规律，通过计算机编程技术构建系统的非线性动力模型，并重构系统的相空间。用R／S方法对系统时间序列的演化特征进行分析论证，结果表明，这种相空间重构方法具有较好的非线性预报效果。     

Lower bound limit analysis of unsupported vertical circular excavations in rocks using Hoek-Brown failure criterion

The stability of vertical unsupported circular excavations in rock media, obeying generalized Hoek-Brown yield criterion, has been investigated by using the lower bound finite elements limit analysis. An axisymmetric analysis, composed of a planar domain with a mesh of three-noded triangular elements, has been carried out. The optimization problem is dealt with by using the semidefinite programming technique avoiding the need of either smoothing the yield surface or making any assumption associated with the circumferential stress (σ_θ). A detailed parametric study has been executed, and the effects of different input material parameters, namely, geological strength index (GSI), yield parameter (m_i), and the disturbance factor (D) on the results have been studied. For different height to radius ratios of the excavation, the computed results are presented in the form of nondimensional stability numbers. Failure mechanisms have also been investigated for a few typical cases. The results from the analysis have been compared with that evaluated separately with the application of the software OptumG2.     

Effect of Inter-Column Spacing on Soil Stresses due to Vibro-Installed Stone Columns: Interesting Findings

This paper reveals the interesting relation between the inter-column spacing and the corresponding alteration of soil state of stresses due to the vibro-installation technique. This relation is inferred from analyses for load settlement records of various field load tests, performed for stone columns arrangements with different inter-column spacing values. In order to have adequate confidence in the findings, a well-documented case history, involving three columns patterns along with their relevant field and laboratory test results, is utilized for this study. Moreover, a well-tested finite element model, capable of simulating both elasto-plastic and time dependent soil deformations as well as pore water pressure building and dissipation, is employed in the analysis. Instead of determining the soil response to the test load, based on known initial soil stresses and material properties, the analysis is inversely posed to determine the soil initial stresses, based on the recorded settlements and the post-installation material properties. The alteration in the soil state of stress is represented by the increase in the post-installation horizontal to vertical stress ratio, K*, as a function of the inter-column spacing. It is found that this alteration experiences a systematic decrease in its magnitude as the inter-column spacing increases.     

The impact of ENSO and macrocirculation patterns on precipitation under climate change

The possible impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and macrocirculation patterns (CPs) on local precipitation are examined and analyzed here under climate change conditions. First the relationship between the input and output variables under present conditions is established using two models, a fuzzy rule-based model (FRBM) and a multivariate linear regression model (MLRM), then this historical relationship is extended under climate change conditions. The input variables for these models consist of lagged ENSO-data (represented by the Southern Oscillation Index, SOI) and 500 hPa height data clustered into macrocirculation patterns over the western United States, while the output is an estimate of monthly local precipitation at selected Arizona stations. To overcome the lack of SOI data under climate change, several scenarios are constructed by perturbing the historical SOI data in a design of experiments framework. The results of the experimental design show that, in general, the precipitation amount seems to decrease under climate change. While the stations and months have differences, as expected, the perturbed scenarios do not show significant differences.     

Pseudo 3-D modeling of trishear fault-propagation folding

Basement structures, to which trishear fault-propagation models have most successfully been applied, are commonly three-dimensional folds formed at the tip-line of a fault. We present here a ‘pseudo-3D’ trishear model in which various parameters are permitted to vary along strike and oblique-slip can be modeled. These variations may be combined in an infinite number of ways, facilitating the simulation of many real structures. A thrust changing from blind to emergent can be produced by a change in the slip or propagation-to-slip (P/S) along strike. Folds with forelimbs changing from overturned to upright along strike can be modeled either by changing the slip, P/S or trishear angle. Also some minor folds perpendicular or oblique to the main structure can result from changes in the trishear angle or fault angle along the strike. Models including growth strata show that it is practically impossible to distinguish between growth and pre-growth strata using the map patterns. As a field test, we have modeled the oblique slip East Kaibab monocline, demonstrating a good fit between the field observations and model predictions.     

Origin of a trend in ECMWF wind analysis and its objective removal

The suitability of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational wind analysis for the period 1980–1991 for studying interannual variability is examined. The changes in the model and the analysis procedure are shown to give rise to a systematic and significant trend in the large scale circulation features. A new method of removing the systematic errors at all levels is presented using multivariate EOF analysis. Objectively detrended analysis of the three-dimensional wind field agrees well with independent Florida State University (FSU) wind analysis at the surface. It is shown that the interannual variations in the detrended surface analysis agree well in amplitude as well as spatial patterns with those of the FSU analysis. Therefore, the detrended analyses at other levels as well are expected to be useful for studies of variability and predictability at interannual time scales. It is demonstrated that this trend in the wind field is due to the shift in the climatologies from the period 1980–1985 to the period 1986–1991.     

Short-run forecasting of United States coal production

Summary This paper focuses on short-range modelling and forecasting of aggregate US monthly coal production. The 1976–83 time-series data suggest a multiplicative autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to replicate national level monthly coal production. The identified model required 12-month seasonal differencing and has an autoregressive component of lag 1 and a moving average component of lag 12. Model predictions for 1984 were very reasonable when compared with actual production: cyclical patterns were correctly replicated and the deterministic increasing trend was properly identified. The estimated model was enhanced by updating it with data for 1984. Intervention analysis was used to determine the impact of labour negotiations in coal production. Information relative to the identified ARIMA model was then used to model the intervening event of labour negotiations. Intervention modelling produced forecasts for 1984 superior to those identified by the ARIMA model. The mean predicted 1984 US monthly coal production of 1976–84 ARIMA and intervention models were 96.05 and 99.65% of the observed value of 74 178 thousand short tons per month, respectively. Simplicity of the ARIMA and intervention models, the realiability of their predictions, and the ease of updating make them very attractive when compared with large scale econometric models for use in short-term coal production forecasting.