2011年日本9.0级及7.5级地震震源破裂反投影初步结果

2011年3月日本仙台东部太平洋海域接连发生了Mw7.5和Mw9.0级地震.地震及引发的海啸给日本造成了严重的破坏.本文运用近年来国际上流行的研究大地震震源破裂过程的非反演方法,反投影远震P波,研究了这两次地震的震源破裂特征,得到了他们各自的破裂区域和破裂持续时间.     

The fluid-driven tectonic swarm of Aysen Fjord,Chile (2007) associated with two earthquakes (Mw=6.1 and Mw=6.2) within the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone

A seismic swarm of more than 7200 earthquakes occurred in Aysen Fjord, southern Chile, from January to June 2007. It started suddenly on 23 January 2007 with an earthquake of magnitude Mw=5.3, followed by five earthquakes with magnitudes increasing from Mw=5.2 to 6.2 within three months. Two large earthquakes of magnitudes Mw=6.1 and 6.2 occurred on 02 and 21 April 2007, respectively. The latest earthquake generated landslides that induced a tsunami within the fjord, killing 10 people. This swarm has been examined using international seismic catalogues and seismicity located with a local seismic network; in particular its double tectonic and volcanic origin has been explored. All the focal mechanisms are compatible with the long- and short-term tectonics of the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone, a major intra-arc fault system of the Patagonian fjord land. The space, time, and size distributions of these earthquakes, that occurred within an active volcanic area revealed by the presence of several Holocene monogenetic volcanoes, may be explained both by fluid-induced (magma and/or hydrothermal fluids) activity combined with tectonic activity. The co-existence of these two tectonic and volcanic phenomena is a good example of retroactive links between fluids and tectonic fractures.     

Ring structures of seismicity in central Tien Shan and Dzungaria: Possible precursory processes of large earthquakes

It is shown that episodes of comparative seismic quiescence that lasted about 20–25 years in the areas of study alternated with intervals of sharply increased seismicity as series of large (M ≥ 6.9) earthquakes occurred during two to three decades. Since no M ≥ 6.6 earthquake has occurred in the area for as long as 21 years after the 1992 Susamyr event, middle-term prediction would require identification of zones of imminent large earthquakes. More reliable identification of such zones rests on data relating to inhomogeneities in the field of S-wave attenuation in the lithosphere, as well as on the characteristics of ring structures of seismicity. Such structures are formed as zones of seismic quiescence that are bounded by M ? Mth earthquake epicenters, where Mth is the threshold magnitude value. Correlative relationships were previously derived, lgL(Mw) and Mth(Mw), for events with different focal mechanisms (L is the length of the longer axis of a seismicity ring and Mw is the magnitude of the associated large earthquake). These relationships were used to estimate the Mw of large events that can occur in these ring structures. The greatest earthquake with Mw ? 7.5 is probably about to occur in southern Tien Shan, east of the 1949 Khait earthquake rupture. A smaller event (Mw ～ 7.0) can occur in the Kyrgyz Range area. Still smaller earthquakes probably have their precursory areas north and east of Lake Issyk-Kul, as well as in Dzungaria.     

Development of Long-period Ground Motions from the Nankai Trough, Japan, Earthquakes: Observations and Computer Simulation of the 1944 Tonankai (Mw 8.1) and the 2004 SE Off-Kii Peninsula (Mw 7.4) Earthquakes

Strong ground motions recorded in central Tokyo during the 1944 Tonankai Mw8.1 earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough demonstrate significant developments of very large (>10 cm) and prolonged (>10 min) shaking of long-period (T > 10–12 s) ground motions in the basin of Tokyo located over 400 km from the epicenter. In order to understand the process by which such long-period ground motions developed in central Tokyo and to mitigate possible future disasters arising from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough, we analyzed waveform data from a dense nation wide strong-motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) deployed across Japan for the recent SE Off-Kii Peninsula (Mw 7.4) earthquake of 5 September 2004 that occurred in the Nankai Trough. The observational data and a corresponding computer simulation for the earthquake clearly demonstrate that such long-period ground motion is primarily developed as the wave propagating along the Nankai Trough due to the amplification and directional guidance of long-period surface waves within a thick sedimentary layer overlaid upon the shallowly descending Philippine Sea Plate below the Japanese Island. Then the significant resonance of the seismic waves within the thick cover of sedimentary rocks of the Kanto Basin developed large and prolonged long-period motions in the center of Tokyo. The simulation results and observed seismograms are in good agreement in terms of the main features of the long-period ground motions. Accordingly, we consider that the simulation model is capable of predicting the long-period ground motions that are expected to occur during future Nankai Trough M 8 earthquakes.     

Ometepec-Pinotepa Nacional,Mexico Earthquake of 20 March 2012 (Mw 7.5): A preliminary report

An analysis of local and regional data produced by the shallow, thrust Ometepec-Pinotepa Nacional earthquake (M_w 7.5) of 20 March 2012 shows that it nucleated at 16.254°N 98.531°W, about 5 km offshore at a depth of about 20 km. During the first 4 seconds the slip was relatively small. It was followed by rupture of two patches with large slip, one updip of the hypocenter to the SE and the other downdip to the north. Total rupture area, estimated from inversion of near-source strong-motion recordings, is ~25 km × 60 km. The earthquake was followed by an exceptionally large number of aftershocks. The aftershock area overlaps with that of the 1982 doublet (M_w 7.0, 6.9). However, the seismic moment of the 2012 earthquake is ~3 times the sum of the moments of the doublet, indicating that the gross rupture characteristics of the two earthquake episodes differ. The small-slip area near the hypocenter and large-slip areas of the two patches are characterized by relatively small aftershock activity. A striking, intense, linear NE alignment of the aftershocks is clearly seen. The radiated energy to seismic moment ratios, (E_s/M₀), of five earthquakes in the region reveal that they are an order of magnitude smaller for near-trench earthquakes than those that occur further downdip (e.g., 2012 and the 1995 Copala earthquakes). The near-trench earthquakes are known to produce low A_max. The available information suggests that the plate interface in the region can be divided in three domains. (1) From the trench to a distance of about 35 km downdip. In this domain M~6 to 7 earthquakes with low values of (E_s/M₀) occur. These events generate large number of aftershocks. It is not known whether the remaining area on this part of the interface slips aseismically (stable sliding) or is partially locked. (2) From 35 to 100 km from the trench. This domain is seismically coupled where stick-slip sliding occurs, generating large earthquakes. Part of the area is probably conditionally stable. (3) From 100 to 200 km from the trench. In this domain slow slip events (SSE) and nonvolcanic tremors (NVT) have been reported.The earthquake caused severe damage in and near the towns of Ometepec and Pinotepa Nacional. The PGA exceeded 1 g at a soft site in the epicentral region. Observed PGAs on hard sites as a function of distance are in reasonable agreement with the expected ones from ground motion prediction equations derived using data from Mexican interplate earthquakes. The earthquake was strongly felt in Mexico City. PGA at CU, a hard site in the city, was 12 gal. Strong-motion recordings in the city since 1985 demonstrate that PGAs during the 2012 earthquake were not exceptional, and that similar motion occurs about once in three years.     

两次大地震的关联与影响

2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊Mw9.3特大地震的发生,对全球气候和地震趋势都将产生重大影响.本文讨论了2004年印尼苏门答腊Mw9.3特大地震、2005南亚克什米尔M7.8大震以及2001年中国昆仑山M8.1大震之间的相互关系.同时指出,2006～2007年中国大陆西部地区有可能发生7级左右强震.     

Multiresolution wavelets and natural time analysis before the January–February 2014 Cephalonia (Mw6.1 & 6.0) sequence of strong earthquake events

On January 26 and February 3, 2014, Cephalonia Island (Ionian Sea, Greece) was struck by two strong, shallow earthquakes (moment magnitudes Mw6.1 and Mw6.0, respectively) that ruptured two sub-parallel, strike-slip faults, with right-lateral kinematics. The scope of the present work is to investigate the complex correlations of the earthquake activity that preceded the Mw6.1 event in the broader area of the Cephalonia Island and identify possible indications of critical stages in the evolution of the earthquake generation process. We apply the recently introduced methods of Multiresolution Wavelet Analysis (MRWA) and Natural Time (NT) analysis and for the first time we combine their results in a joint approach that may lead to universal principles in describing the evolution of the earthquake activity as it approaches a major event. In particular, the initial application of MRWA on the inter-event time series indicates a time marker 12 days prior to the major event. By using this time as the initiation point of the NT analysis, the critical stage of seismicity, where the κ₁ parameter reaches the critical value of κ₁ = 0.070, is approached few days before the occurrence of the Mw6.1 earthquake.     

冲绳海槽地区地震潜在海啸对中国东南沿海的影响研究

采用球坐标系下非线性浅水波方程, 研究日本本州M9.0大地震引发的海啸对中国东南沿海的影响, 并计算了冲绳海槽构造带上3个不同段落可能发生潜在地震引发的海啸, 分析这些海啸与日本大海啸的浪高和走时关系. 结果表明, 日本地震海啸模拟结果与日本当地报道及中国东南沿海7个验潮站的报道结果相符. 冲绳海槽构造带中段可能发生的3次不同震级（M7.0, M7.5, M8.0）潜在地震引发的海啸到达中国东南沿海的时间比日本海啸提前约4个小时, 从震源区传播3个多小时即可到达华东沿海部分验潮站. 冲绳海槽M7.5潜在地震海啸在验潮站上计算的波高与日本海啸相当, 中冲绳海槽M8.0潜在地震海啸在大陈站的波高将超过0.9 m, 在坎门站波高将超过1.8 m. 北冲绳海槽的潜在地震海啸威胁主要集中在江苏盐城、 上海一带, 南冲绳海啸主要对台湾东北部和浙江沿海产生威胁. 本文对冲绳海槽构造带上潜在地震引发海啸的模拟结果, 可为中国东南沿海地区的防震减灾、 海啸预警提供有意义的参考.      

On the ability of Moho reflections to affect the ground motion in northeastern Italy: a case study of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence

It has been observed that post-critically reflected S-waves and multiples from the Moho discontinuity could play a relevant role on the ground motion due to medium to strong size earthquakes away from the source. Although some studies investigated the correlation between the Moho reflections amplitudes and the damage in the far field, little attention was given to the frequency content of these specific phases and their scaling with magnitude. The 2012 Emilia seismic sequence in northern Italy, recorded by velocimetric and accelerometric networks, is here exploited to investigate Moho reflections and multiples (SmSM). A single station method for group velocity-period estimation, based on the multiple filter technique, is applied to strong motion data to detect SmSM. Amplitude and frequency scaling with magnitude is defined for earthquakes from \(\hbox {Mw}=3.9\) to \(\hbox {Mw}=5.9\) . Finally, the ability of SmSM to affect the ground motion for a maximum credible earthquake within the Po plain is investigated by extrapolating observed engineering parameters. Data analysis shows that high amplitude SmSM can be recognized within the Po plain, and at the boundaries between the Po plain and the Alpine chain, at epicentral distances larger than 80 km, in the period range from 0.25 to 3 s and in the group velocity window from about 2.6 to 3.2 km/s. 5 % damped pseudo-spectral accelerations at different periods (0.3, 1.0 and 2.0 s), and Housner intensities, are obtained from data characterized by large amplitude SmSM. A scaling relationship for both pseudo-spectral accelerations and Housner intensities is found for the earthquakes of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence. \(\hbox {I}_{\mathrm{MCS}}\) from VII to VIII is estimated, as a result of SmSM amplitude enhancement, at about 100 km for a maximum credible earthquake ( \(\hbox {Mw}=6.7\) ) in the Po plain, showing that moderate to high damage cloud be caused by these specific phases.     

峰值速度和加速度对环境剪应力的依赖性

从导出的地震定标律和地震破裂过程的断裂力学模式出发,得到了震源平均位移、速度和加速度谱的表达式,进而又推导出震源的峰值位移d_m,速度v_m和加速度a_m的表达式:d_m=k_dM_0~2/~3τ_0~(2/3),v=k_vM_0~(1/3)τ_0~(4/3),a_m=k_aτ_0~2式中M_0是地震矩,τ_0是环境剪应力值,k_d,k_v,k_a为适当的常数.我们选用了66个地震的观测资料,这些地震的矩震级范围包括了从1级左右的极微震,3-5级的小震,直到6-7级的大震;地震矩从10~9-10~(20)Nm,跨越了10个数量级,并用这些地震检验了上述公式. 令所有地震的平均应力为5MPa,定出常数k_d,k_v,k_a,进而由速度和加速度观测资料求得66个地震的环境剪应力τ_0值,这些数值相当稳定.多数极微震的τ_0值在2-4MPa之间;小震的τ_0值多数在4-8MPa左右;大震的τ_0值为10MPa左右。τ_0值对震源深度和断层类型有明显的依赖性.一般深度很浅的小震和极微震,τ_0值很低;正断层地震的τ_0值相对较低;逆断层地震的τ_0值较高;走滑断层地震的τ_0值则居中.     

Intensity predictive attenuation models calibrated in Mw for metropolitan France

In the framework of the SIGMA project, a study was launched to develop a parametric earthquake catalog for the historical period, covering the metropolitan territory and calibrated in Mw. A set of candidate calibration events was selected corresponding to earthquakes felt over a part of the French metropolitan territory, which are fairly well documented both in terms of macroseismic intensity distributions (SisFrance BRGM-EDF-IRSN) and magnitude estimates. The detailed analysis of the macroseismic data led us to retain only 30 events out of 65 with Mw ranging from 3.6 to 5.8. In order to supplement the dataset with data from larger magnitude events, Italian earthquakes were also considered (11 events posterior to 1900 with Mw?≥?6.0 out of 15 in total), using both the DBMI11 macroseismic database (Locati et al. in Seismol Resour Lett 85(3):727–734, 2014) and the parametric information from the CPTI11 (Rovida et al. in CPTI11, la versione 2011 del Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica et Vulcanologia, Milano, Bologna, 2011.  https://doi.org/10.6092/ingv.it-cpti11). To avoid introducing bias related to the differences in terms of intensity scales (MSK vs. MCS), only intensities smaller than or equal to VII were considered (Traversa et al. in On the use of cross-border macroseismic data to improve the estimation of past earthquakes seismological parameters, 2014). Mw and depth metadata were defined according to the Si-Hex catalogue (Cara et al. in Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3–19, 2015.  https://doi.org/10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3), published information, and to the specific worked conducted within SIGMA related to early instrumental recordings (Benjumea et al. in Study of instrumented earthquakes that occurred during the first part of the 20th century (1905–1962), 2015). For the depth estimates, we also performed a macroseismic analysis to evaluate the range of plausible estimates and check the consistency of the solutions. Uncertainties on the metadata related to the calibration earthquakes were evaluated using the range of available alternative estimates. The intensity attenuation models were developed using a one-step maximum likelihood scheme. Several mathematical formulations and sub-datasets were considered to evaluate the robustness of the results (similarly to Baumont and Scotti in Accounting for data and modeling uncertainties in empirical macroseismic predictive equations (EMPEs). Towards “European” EMPEs based on SISFRANCE, DBMI, ECOS macroseismic database, 2008). In particular, as the region of interest may be characterized by significant laterally varying attenuation properties (Bakun and Scotti in Geophys J Int 164:596–610, 2006; Gasperini in Bull Seismol Soc Am 91:826–841, 2001), we introduced regional attenuation terms to account for this variability. Two zonation schemes were tested, one at the national scale (France/Italy), another at the regional scale based on the studies of Mayor et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0124-8) for France and Gasperini (2001) for Italy. Between and within event residuals were analyzed in detail to identify the best models, that is, the ones associated with the best misfit and most limited residual trends with intensity and distance. This analysis led us to select four sets of models for which no significant trend in the between- and within-event residuals is detected. These models are considered to be valid over a wide range of Mw covering?~?3.5–7.0.     

腾冲地区潜热通量与周围地区地震活动的相关性

以2000年以来6.4级以上地震为例,研究了腾冲地区潜热通量（SLHF）在这些震例发生前后的变化特征。结果表明：腾冲地区的SLHF动态,不但在其附近发生强地震前常出现异常,而且对周边较远的强地震前也会发生异常反应;异常出现时间大都在震前1个半月以内,汶川地震前异常出现较早,发生在震前2个月之前,这可能与汶川地震震级高影响范围大有关;异常幅值与震级有关,震级越大,异常表现越强。 比如芦山7.0级地震、缅甸7.0级地震和汶川M_S 8.0地震前,腾冲地区SLHF异常幅度很大,远远超过最大参考值,而姚安6.5级地震和宁洱6.4级地震前异常幅度就相对小一些。腾冲地区SLHF异常与周围强地震的发生有较好的相关性,一方面与腾冲地区的活动断裂发育、现今构造变形强烈有关,另一方面可能是由于腾冲地区火山活动强烈,温泉广泛发育,水热交换迅速,对周边构造活动感应灵敏所致。     

Slip Distribution and Seismic Moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean Earthquakes Inferred from Tsunami Waveforms and Coastal Geodetic Data

The slip distribution and seismic moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean earthquakes were estimated from tsunami and coastal geodetic data. These two earthquakes generated transoceanic tsunamis, and the waveforms were recorded around the Pacific Ocean. In addition, coseismic coastal uplift and subsidence were measured around the source areas. For the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, inversion of the tsunami waveforms recorded at nearby coastal tide gauge and Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations combined with coastal geodetic data suggest two asperities: a northern one beneath the coast of Constitucion and a southern one around the Arauco Peninsula. The total fault length is approximately 400 km with seismic moment of 1.7 × 10²² Nm (Mw 8.8). The offshore DART tsunami waveforms require fault slips beneath the coasts, but the exact locations are better estimated by coastal geodetic data. The 22 May 1960 earthquake produced very large, ~30 m, slip off Valdivia. Joint inversion of tsunami waveforms, at tide gauge stations in South America, with coastal geodetic and leveling data shows total fault length of ~800 km and seismic moment of 7.2 × 10²² Nm (Mw 9.2). The seismic moment estimated from tsunami or joint inversion is similar to previous estimates from geodetic data, but much smaller than the results from seismic data analysis.     

Contribution of ambient vibration recordings (free-field and buildings) for post-seismic analysis: The case of the Mw 7.3 Martinique (French Lesser Antilles) earthquake,November 29, 2007

Following the Mw 7.3 Martinique earthquake, November 29^th, 2007, a post-seismic survey was conducted by the Bureau Central Sismologique Français (BCSF) for macroseismic intensities assessment. In addition to the inventories, ambient vibration recordings were performed close to the particularly damaged zones in the free-field and the buildings. The objective of the paper is to show the relevancy of performing ambient vibration recordings for post-earthquake surveys. The analyses of the recordings aim at explaining the variability of the damages through site effects, structure vulnerability or resonance phenomena and to help the characterization of the post-seismic building integrity. In three sites prone to site effects, we suspect damage to be related to a concordance between soil fundamental frequency and building resonance frequency. Besides, the recordings of ambient vibrations at La Trinité hospital before and after the earthquake allow us to quantify the damage due to earthquake in terms of stiffness loss.     

Major earthquakes of the southern Gornyi Altai in the Holocene

The paper describes geological and geomorphological features of ancient major earthquakes that occurred in the Holocene in the zone of the Altai earthquake of September 27, 2003 (southern Gornyi Altai). Fossil earthquakes occurred in the regions of the Northern and Southern Chuya ridges and Chuya and Kurai basins; their sources reached the surface and formed systems of coseismic ruptures oriented SE-NW or E-W. Secondary (gravitational and vibrational) paleoseismic deformations were represented by rockfalls, landslides, and gryphons in near-field zones of these paleoevents. They were spread in an area of about 2000–2500 km² coinciding, on the whole, with the position of source zones. Paleoseismogeological investigations showed that, apart from earthquakes of the 20th and 21st centuries, eight seismic events with magnitudes M = 7.0–8.0 occurred in the region over the last 8500 years. Ancient strong earthquakes that produced the observed paleoseismic ruptures occurred approximately 230–300, 1000, 1700, 2300, 3500, 4500, 5200, and 8500 years ago. Therefore, the recurrence interval averaged 1400 yr for earthquakes with a magnitude of about 7.0 and 2100 yr for events with a magnitude of about 7.5.     

印尼苏门答腊MW9.0级地震对全球及中国大陆地震趋势影响研究的反思

本文对2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊以西发生MW9.0级地震后所做的地震趋势预测做了反思,指出:关于全球特大地震近年可能连发,特大地震对几年内世界7级以上地震年频度没有明显影响,但未来几年内7级以上强震可能集中在这次特大地震附近或相关构造上的预测意见是正确的;而有关近年中国大陆及川滇地区可能发生7级强震的预测是错误的;并认为,2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震释放了已积累的应变可能是这次特大地震不能触发中国大陆及川滇地区发生强震的重要原因。     

Geological constraints for earthquake faulting studies in the Colfiorito area (central Italy)

On September 26, 1997, at 00.33 h(GMT), a Mw 5.7 earthquake occurred in the axial zone of theUmbria-Marche Apennines of central Italy, in the Colfiorito basin area. At09.40 h (GMT), a M_w 6.0 earthquake again struck the area withinthe Colfiorito basin, a major intramontane basin filled with Quaternarycontinental deposits. The two main shocks, and the associated aftershockswere within a roughly NNW-SSE trending zone of largest damage (Imax10), in which ground deformation has been observed. Along this trend,Cello et al. (1997a) had mapped a few capable faults, showingtranstensional to pure extensional kinematics. Field inspection of themapped faults, carried out after the main shocks, revealed that some ofthem were locally reactivated (for lengths of several hundreds metres andsurface slip in the range of 2–8 cm) during the September 26, 1997earthquakes.     

GPS-derived Deformation of the Central Andes Including the 1995 Antofagasta Mw = 8.0 Earthquake

—In order to study both the interplate seismic loading cycle and the distribution of intraplate deformation of the Andes, a 215 site GPS network covering Chile and the western part of Argentina was selected, monumented and observed in 1993 and 1994. A dense part of the network in northern Chile and northwest Argentina, comprising some 70 sites, was re-observed after two years in October/November, 1995. The M _w = 8.0 Antofagasta (North Chile) earthquake of 30th July, 1995 took place between the two observations. The city of Antofagasta shifted 80 cm westwards by this event and the displacement still reached 10 cm at locations 300 km from the trench. Three different deformation processes have been considered for modeling the measured displacements (1) interseismic accumulation of elastic strain due to subduction coupling, (2) coseismic strain release during the Antofagasta earthquake and (3) crustal shortening in the Sub-Andes.¶Eastward displacement of the sites to the north and to the south of the area affected by the earthquake is due to the interseismic accumulation of elastic deformation. Assuming a uniform slip model of interseismic coupling, the observed displacements at the coast require a fully locked subduction interface and a depth of seismic coupling of 50 km. The geodetically derived fault plane parameters of the Antofagasta earthquake are consistent with results derived from wave-form modeling of seismolog ical data. The coseismic slip predicted by the variable slip model reaches values of 3.2 m in the dip-slip and 1.4 m in the strike-slip directions. The derived rake is 66°. Our geodetic results suggest that the oblique Nazca–South American plate convergence is accommodated by oblique earthquake slip with no slip partitioning. The observed displacements in the back-arc indicate a present-day crustal shortening rate of 3–4 mm/year which is significantly slower than the average of 10 mm/year experienced during the evolution of the Andean plateau.     

The Beni Haoua,Algeria, Mw 4.9 earthquake: source parameters,engineering, and seismotectonic implications

A moderate Mw 4.9 earthquake struck the Beni Haoua (Algeria) coastal area on April 25, 2012. The mainshock was largely recorded by the accelerograph network of the Centre National de Recherche Appliquée en Génie Parasismique (CGS). The same day the earthquake occurred, eight mobile short period stations were deployed through the epicentral area. In this study, we use accelerogram and seismogram data recorded by these two networks. We combined the focal mechanism built from the first motion of P waves and from waveform inversion, and the distribution of aftershocks to well constrain the source parameters. The mainshock is located with a shallow focal depth, ～9 km, and the focal mechanism shows a nearly pure left lateral strike slip motion, with total seismic moment of 2.8?×?10¹⁶ N.m (M_w?=?4.9). The aftershocks mainly cluster on a narrow NS strip, starting at the coast up to 3–4 km inland. This cluster, almost vertical, is concentrated between 6 and 10 km depth. The second part of this work concerns the damage distribution and estimated intensity in the epicentral area. The damage distribution is discussed in connection with the observed maximum strong motion. The acceleration response spectrum with 5 % damping of the mainshock and aftershocks give the maximum amplitude in high frequency which directly affects the performance of the high-frequency structures. Finally, we tie this earthquake with the seismotectonic of the region, leading to conclude that it occurred on a N–S transform zone between two major compressional fault zones oriented NE–SW.     

Historical seismicity, palaeoseismicity and seismic risk in Western Macedonia, Northern Greece

Western Macedonia, Northern Greece, was a seismically quiescent region for one or more centuries, and was regarded as a nearly aseismic, rigid block inside a broad zone of distributed continental deformation and faulting, and a region of minimum seismic risk. Consequently, the May 13, 1995 destructive earthquake (M = 6.6) which hit this assumed aseismic zone was a surprise for scientists, government and population.However, historical and archaeoseismic evidence, as well as coastal change data indicate that the assumed aseismic region of Western Macedonia has been affected in the last 2,000 years by at least seven, and possibly nine destructive earthquakes. One of these earthquakes occurred in circa 1700, and probably had the same epicentre with, but higher magnitude than the 1995 shock.The earthquake in circa 1700 is deduced from historical data and is modelled on the base of a swarm of church repairs which is explained as post-seismic recovery of the broader Kozani area: except for certain well known cases of towns or areas in which religious privileges were granted, large scale repairs or reconstruction of churches during the Ottoman period were possible only after Sultan's permissions, usually following earthquakes and other calamities.It can hence be concluded that some, at least, of the apparently aseismic regions inside broad zones of distributed seismicity are hit by stronger shocks, but with longer (200 years or more) recurrence intervals than their adjacent zones. Consequently, the seismic risk of the apparently aseismic regions is certainly not low, especially since relatively long periods of seismic quiescence lead to constructions vulnerable to earthquakes.