Characteristics of radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the Baikal Rift Zone estimated by simulations of acceleration time histories of the recorded earthquakes

The regularities in the radiation and propagation of seismic waves within the Baikal Rift Zone in Buryatia are studied to estimate the ground motion parameters from the probable future strong earthquakes. The regional parameters of seismic radiation and propagation are estimated by the stochastic simulation (which provides the closest agreement between the calculations and observations) of the acceleration time histories of the earthquakes recorded by the Ulan-Ude seismic station. The acceleration time histories of the strongest earthquakes (M _W ~ 3.4–4.8) that occurred in 2006–2011 at the epicentral distances of ~96–125 km and had source depths of ~8–12 km have been modeled. The calculations are conducted with estimates of the Q-factor which were previously obtained for the region. The frequency-dependent attenuation and geometrical spreading are estimated from the data on the deep structure of the crust and upper mantle (velocity sections) in the Ulan-Ude region, and the parameters determining the wave forms and duration of acceleration time histories are found by fitting. These parameters fairly well describe all the considered earthquakes. The Ulan-Ude station can be considered as the reference bedrock station with minimum local effects. The obtained estimates for the parameters of seismic radiation and propagation can be used for forecasting the ground motion from the future strong earthquakes and for constructing the seismic zoning maps for Buryatia.     

Simulation of Ground Motion from Strong Earthquakes of Kamchatka Region (1992–1993) at Rock and Soil Sites

To estimate the parameters of ground motion in future strong earthquakes, characteristics of radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the Kamchatka region were studied. Regional parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves were estimated by comparing simulations of earthquake records with data recorded by stations of the Kamchatka Strong Motion Network. Acceleration time histories of strong earthquakes (M _w = 6.8–7.5, depths 45–55 km) that occurred near the eastern coast of Kamchatka in 1992–1993 were simulated at rock and soil stations located at epicentral distances of 67–195 km. In these calculations, the source spectra and the estimates of frequency-dependent attenuation and geometrical spreading obtained earlier for Kamchatka were used. The local seismic-wave amplification was estimated based on shallow geophysical site investigations and deep crustal seismic explorations, and parameters defining the shapes of the waveforms, the duration, etc. were selected, showing the best-fit to the observations. The estimated parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves describe all the studied earthquakes well. Based on the waveforms of the acceleration time histories, models of slip distribution over the fault planes were constructed for the studied earthquakes. Station PET can be considered as a reference rock station having the minimum site effects. The intensity of ground motion at the other studied stations was higher than at PET due to the soil response or other effects, primarily topographic ones. At soil stations INS, AER, and DCH the parameters of soil profiles (homogeneous pyroclastic deposits) were estimated, and nonlinear models of their behavior in the strong motion were constructed. The obtained parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves and models of soil behavior can be used for forecasting ground motion in future strong earthquakes in Kamchatka.     

Ground motion prediction equations based on shallow crustal earthquakes in Georgia and the surrounding Caucasus

Strong ground motions caused by earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 3.5 to 6.9 and hypocentral distances of up to 300 km were recorded by local broadband stations and three-component accelerograms within Georgia’s enhanced digital seismic network. Such data mixing is particularly effective in areas where strong ground motion data are lacking. The data were used to produce models based on ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), one benefit of which is that they take into consideration information from waveforms across a wide range of frequencies. In this study, models were developed to predict ground motions for peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudo-absolute-acceleration spectra for periods between 0.01 and 10 s. Short-period ground motions decayed faster than long-period motions, though decay was still in the order of approximately 1/r. Faulting mechanisms and local soil conditions greatly influence GMPEs. The spectral acceleration (SA) of thrust faults was higher than that for either strike-slip or normal faults but the influence of strike-slip faulting on SA was slightly greater than that for normal faults. Soft soils also caused significantly more amplification than rocky sites.     

Earthquake ground motion modeling of induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field

A physics‐based numerical approach is used to characterize earthquake ground motion due to induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field and to improve empirical ground motion models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. To this end, a large‐scale (20 km × 20 km) heterogeneous 3D seismic wave propagation model for the Groningen area is constructed, based on the significant bulk of available geological, geophysical, geotechnical, and seismological data. Results of physics‐based numerical simulations are validated against the ground motion recordings of the January 8, 2018, M_L 3.4 Zeerijp earthquake. Taking advantage of suitable models of slip time functions at the seismic source and of the detailed geophysical model, the numerical simulations are found to reproduce accurately the observed features of ground motions at epicentral distances less than 10 km, in a broad frequency range, up to about 8 Hz. A sensitivity analysis is also addressed to discuss the impact of 3D underground geological features, the stochastic variability of seismic velocities and the frequency dependence of the quality factor. Amongst others, results point out some key features related to 3D seismic wave propagation, such as the magnitude and distance dependence of site amplification functions, that may be relevant to the improvement of the empirical models for earthquake ground motion prediction.     

邢台地区长周期地震动特征初步分析

沉积平原中存在地表低速沉积层是长周期地震动产生的关键因素,而长周期地震动会对长周期建筑物造成严重威胁和震害。本文基于邢台地震的历史地震震源模型和含地表沉积层的地壳速度模型,采用离散波数有限元法,对邢台地区进行了长周期地震动的计算分析。研究表明,邢台平原地区在大震中会产生长周期地震波,邢台地震中反应谱峰值区域位于宁晋南,与极震区基本重合。震中距小于55km区域内的周期1.5—4s的放大系数谱超过了抗震设计规范谱,反应谱放大系数值在周期2s附近达到峰值。因此,邢台地区因存在地表软弱沉积层,该区抗震设防可能对长周期地震动估计不足,建议应予以特别考虑。     

2007年宁洱MS6.4地震的地面运动预测

根据普洱、 西双版纳地区6个地震观测台站在2008——2009年获取的5级以上的地震资料, 利用接收函数和面波衰减系数, 反演得到了研究区域的S波速度结构和Qβ结构. 基于该结构模型, 采用随机振动理论方法, 预测了2007年宁洱MS6.4地震发生后, 在震中距为10——300 km范围内引起的地面运动, 并借助获取的强震观测记录检验、 评价了该预测结果. 同时, 将地面运动预测结果与利用回归衰减公式计算得到的结果进行对比, 进而讨论该地震动预测方法在地面运动预测中的可行性． 结果表明, 该预测结果与实测结果吻合．      

A preliminary empirical model for frequency-dependent attenuation of Fourier amplitude spectra In Serbia from the Vrancea earthquakes

We present the frequency-dependent attenuation model for Fourier amplitude spectra of strong earthquake ground motion in Serbia from intermediate depth earthquakes in the Vrancea source zone in Romania. The development of this type of scaling is the essential first step toward developing the corresponding attenuation and scaling equations for pseudo relative velocity spectra (PSV), which are necessary for seismic macro- and microzoning in the territory of Serbia. Such scaling is necessary because the Vrancea source zone produces large earthquakes with shaking that attenuates differently from the local earthquakes in Serbia. Development of such a scaling model is associated with several difficulties, the principal one being the lack of recorded strong motion accelerograms at epicentral distances exceeding 300 km. To reduce uncertainties with such scaling, we require our preliminary scaling equations to be consistent with independent estimates of seismic moment, stress drop, and radiated wave energy. In the future, when the recorded strong motion data from Vrancea earthquakes increases several-fold of what it is today, it will become possible to perform this analysis again, thus leading to more reliable and permanent scaling estimates.     

Finite-element simulations of long-period ground motions: Japanese subduction-zone earthquakes and the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

Large earthquakes at shallow depths commonly excite long-period ground motions in distant sedimentary basins, thereby inflicting damage upon large-scale structures. For example, the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, Japan, damaged oil tanks in the Yufutsu Basin, located 250 km from the epicenter. Similar long-range effects were also observed during the 2004 earthquake off Kii Peninsula, Japan. In this study, we present the results of simulations of these earthquakes undertaken using the finite element method (FEM) with a voxel mesh. In addition, to examine whether the 1906 San Francisco earthquake excited long-period ground motions in the Los Angeles-area basins, we performed long-period ground motion simulations of most of the California region. The FEM simulations confirmed the importance of path effects for the development of long-period ground motions.     

A uniform approach to seismic site effect analysis in Bucharest, Romania

As a uniform approach to the assessment of ground motion variation within the Romanian capital Bucharest we analyze and compare strong motion records from analog recorders, weak motion data from a modern digital accelerometer network, and intensity observations of previous strong earthquakes. These different data sets allow to clearly characterize geographical trends in the distribution of ground shaking in the city for future earthquakes. Below 2 Hz the variability is small. Between 2 and 5 Hz, however, variations by a factor of 3–4 have to be expected. As the key source for the seismic hazard—the intermediate depth Vrancea earthquakes—remain at hypocentral distances in excess of 150 km from the city the ground motion variation must be predominantly attributed to site effects. This geometry of Vrancea sources to the site of Bucharest is ideal for the application of source-site separation techniques. However, despite this fact site effect amplification functions display a very large amount of aleatory uncertainty. In other words the standard source-site parameterization is too simple and we do not yet fully understand the cause and size of site effects.     

Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain)

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty (T?=?0.1?s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity (T?=?0.22?s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975?years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975?years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA (T) of T?=?0.1 and 0.22?s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975?years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.     

Development of Long-period Ground Motions from the Nankai Trough, Japan, Earthquakes: Observations and Computer Simulation of the 1944 Tonankai (Mw 8.1) and the 2004 SE Off-Kii Peninsula (Mw 7.4) Earthquakes

Strong ground motions recorded in central Tokyo during the 1944 Tonankai Mw8.1 earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough demonstrate significant developments of very large (>10 cm) and prolonged (>10 min) shaking of long-period (T > 10–12 s) ground motions in the basin of Tokyo located over 400 km from the epicenter. In order to understand the process by which such long-period ground motions developed in central Tokyo and to mitigate possible future disasters arising from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough, we analyzed waveform data from a dense nation wide strong-motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) deployed across Japan for the recent SE Off-Kii Peninsula (Mw 7.4) earthquake of 5 September 2004 that occurred in the Nankai Trough. The observational data and a corresponding computer simulation for the earthquake clearly demonstrate that such long-period ground motion is primarily developed as the wave propagating along the Nankai Trough due to the amplification and directional guidance of long-period surface waves within a thick sedimentary layer overlaid upon the shallowly descending Philippine Sea Plate below the Japanese Island. Then the significant resonance of the seismic waves within the thick cover of sedimentary rocks of the Kanto Basin developed large and prolonged long-period motions in the center of Tokyo. The simulation results and observed seismograms are in good agreement in terms of the main features of the long-period ground motions. Accordingly, we consider that the simulation model is capable of predicting the long-period ground motions that are expected to occur during future Nankai Trough M 8 earthquakes.     

Characterization of regional and local scattering effects from small-aperture seismic array recordings

In 1998, four small-aperture arrays separated by 20 km have been deployed in the southern French Alps in order to record the natural seismicity during two consecutive months. One of the main objectives of this experiment was to characterize the heterogeneities that influence the wavefield propagation, by analysis of the coda characteristics recorded by each of the seismic arrays.The time-azimuth-velocity characteristics of the coda phases have been obtained using a high-resolution wavenumber decomposition method.A statistical analysis, using the coda characteristics of the whole data set (20 regional earthquakes) recorded by the four arrays has been performed and lead to the calculation of the density of scattered energy within the medium. Three regional heterogeneous areas (> 10 km) have been characterized, and are located in the N–NE, W and S directions from the four arrays. Scattered energy is also located at local distances (< 10 km) from the four arrays.The comparison of the waveforms recorded (i) with one of the array, for different groups of earthquakes, and (ii) with the four arrays, for one group of earthquakes, show that the geometrical configuration of the source–scattering area–recording site system can strongly influence the energetic distributions related to the secondary phases of the seismograms.In particular cases, we experimentally show that the interactions of the direct wavefield with the heterogeneous structures of the medium can be sufficiently energetic to induce secondary scattered phases that dominate the seismic motions recorded at a given site. In such case, these effects should be taken into account for the quantification of the expected ground motion recorded during an earthquake.     

近断层竖向与水平向加速度反应谱比值特征

显著的竖向地震动是近断层地震动区别于远场地震动的重要特征之一,为更合理地确定竖向地震动作用,研究了近断层区域竖向地震动的反应谱特征及其与水平向反应谱比值的影响因素.首先,选取1952—1999年世界范围内震级在M5.4—7.6之间的18次地震的地震动记录,研究竖向地震加速度反应谱及其与水平向加速度反应谱比值特征;然后统计分析了断层距、场地条件、震级以及断层机制对竖向与水平向加速度反应谱比的影响.结果表明,一般情况下竖向加速度具有更丰富的短周期分量,并且竖向加速度反应谱衰减较慢;断层距在20km以内的近断层区域、软弱土层场地、中等震级地震和逆断层大震级中长周期范围等条件下,具有较大的竖向与水平向加速度反应谱比值;在近断层区域的结构抗震设计中应充分考虑竖向地震动的影响.     

Ground-motion modelling at regional distances for earthquakes in a continental interior,I. Theory and observations

To understand the ground-motion contribution by multiple-mode surface-wave arrivals, the surface-wave theory required for predicting ground-motion time histories is discussed. The adequacy of the theory in accounting for observed earthquake ground motion is tested by comparing theoretically predicted long-period seismograms with real seismograms for two earthquakes in the central United States. The agreement between the predicted and observed maximum vertical component L_g ground velocities and accelerations in the 2- to 3-sec period range is excellent over a distance range of 100 to 2,000 km.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis>-factor estimates for the crust and upper mantle in the vicinity of Sochi and Anapa (North Caucasus)

The regularities in the radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the regions of the North Caucasus are analyzed for estimating the ground motion parameters during the probable future strong earthquakes. Based on the records of the regional earthquakes with magnitudes M_W ~ 3.9–5.6 within epicentral distances up to ~300 km obtained during the period of digital measurements at the Sochi and Anapa seismic stations, the Q-factors in the vicinities of these sites are estimated at ~55 f^0.9 and ~90f^0.7, respectively. The estimates were obtained by the coda normalization method developed by Aki, Rautian, and other authors. This method is based on the phenomenon of suppression of the earthquake (source) effects and local (site) responses by coda waves in the S-wave spectra. The obtained Q-factor estimates can be used for forecasting the ground shaking parameters for the future probable strong earthquakes in the North Caucasus in the vicinities of Sochi and Anapa.     

远场长周期地震下基于规范设计隔震结构的抗震性能研究

隔震结构具有较长自振周期,且容易受地震动长周期特性的影响,因此其在长周期地震动作用下的抗震性能值得研究。以某基于规范设计的基础隔震结构为例,通过对该结构在规范规定地震作用和远场长周期地震作用下的地震响应进行分析和对比,研究长周期地震动对结构地震响应的影响;通过对钢筋和混凝土的损伤状态进行定义和标识,探讨长周期地震作用下基础隔震结构的损伤分布规律。研究结果表明,长周期地震动作用下隔震结构发生破坏的概率远大于具有相同峰值地面加速度的普通地震动,其中长周期地震动反应谱的谱峰值"后移"被认为是造成这种情况的主要原因,且长周期地震动作用下隔震结构的损伤分布并不均匀,其主要集中在结构的底层。     

On the seismic behavior of cylindrical base-isolated liquid storage tanks excited by long-period ground motions

A common effective method to reduce the seismic response of liquid storage tanks is to isolate them at base using base-isolation systems. It has been observed that in many earthquakes, the foregoing systems significantly affect on the whole system response reduction. However, in exceptional cases of excitation by long-period shaking, the base-isolation systems could have adverse effects. Such earthquakes could cause tank damage due to excessive liquid sloshing. Therefore, the numerical seismic response of liquid storage tanks isolated by bilinear hysteretic bearing elements is investigated under long-period ground motions in this research. For this purpose, finite shell elements for the tank structure and boundary elements for the liquid region are employed. Subsequently, fluid–structure equations of motion are coupled with governing equation of base-isolation system, to represent the whole system behavior. The governing equations of motion of the whole system are solved by an iterative and step-by-step algorithm to evaluate the response of the whole system to the horizontal component of three ground motions. The variations of seismic shear forces, liquid sloshing heights, and tank wall radial displacements are plotted under various system parameters such as the tank geometry aspect ratio (height to radius), and the flexibility of the isolation system, to critically examine the effects of various system parameters on the effectiveness of the base-isolation systems against long-period ground motions. From these analyses, it may be concluded that with the installation of this type of base-isolation system in liquid tanks, the dynamic response of tanks during seismic ground motions can be considerably reduced. Moreover, in the special case of long-period ground motions, the seismic response of base-isolated tanks may be controlled by the isolation system only at particular conditions of slender and broad tanks. For the case of medium tanks, remarkable attentions would be required to be devoted to the design of base-isolation systems expected to experience long-period ground motions.     

2014年新疆于田MS7.3地震强地面运动模拟及震动图预测

基于地震动的时空衰减规律和传播特征,采用邻近地震监测台站地震动时程对1 km×1 km尺度的网格点进行近实时插值计算,同时结合场地效应对震区地震动参数进行修正,并以2014年2月12日新疆于田M_S7.3地震为例,计算震区格网内各点的地震时程,同时以8 s为时间间隔绘制出地震动峰值等值线图并将其连续播放,得到了于田M_S7.3地震峰值地震动(PGV,PGA)的空间分布.结果表明,于田县东部至民丰县北部地区受场地条件影响,震区震害在软弱地基土层及浅地下水位等因素作用下对震区地震动具有明显的放大效应,预测的地震动特征与现场宏观调查结果是一致的.在当前强震台网分布不均匀的情形下,本文方法能较好地描述震区地震动特征,较客观地反映灾区的强地面运动特征.      

Earthquake strong motions recorded by a large near-source array of digital seismographs

Specially designed arrays of strong-motion seismographs near to the earthquake source are required for seismological and engineering studies of the generation and near-field properties of seismic waves. The first such large digital array, called SMART 1 (with radius 2 km and 37 accelerometers), to record substantial ground motion (up to 0·24g horizontal acceleration) became operational in late 1980 in a highly seismic region of Taiwan. During the first 6 months of operation, SMART 1 recorded nine earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from M_L 3·8 to 6·9. Three were located directly below the array at focal depths of 59 to 76 km. The remaining six had shallow depths and epicentral distances from 7 to 193 km. Digital records from 27 three-component accelerographs were obtained from a magnitude 6·9 (M_L) local earthquake on 29 January 1981. Representative measurements are described of seismic wave coherency and power spectrum as a function of wave number, frequency, azimuth of propagation and wave type. Acceleration waveforms varied significantly across the array for each event. On average, peak acceleration of horizontal components was about three times that of the vertical component. Relative spectral changes from earthquake to earthquake were large.     

Scenario-Based Seismic Risk Analysis: An Engineering Approach to the Development of Source and Site-Specific Ground Motion Time Histories in Areas of Low Seismicity

Modern engineering design methods require ground motion time histories as input for non-linear dynamic structural analysis. Non-linear dynamic methods of analysis are increasingly applied in the context of probabilistic risk assessments and for cost-effective design of critical infrastructures. In current engineering practice artificial time histories matching deterministic design spectra or probabilistic uniform hazard spectra are most frequently used for engineering analysis. The intermediate step of generation of response spectra can lead to a biased estimate of the potential damage from earthquakes because of insufficient consideration of the true energy content and strong motion duration of earthquakes. Thus, assessment of seismic risk may seem unrealistic. An engineering approach to the development of three-component ground motion time histories has been established which enables consideration of the typical characteristics of seismic sources, regional ground motion attenuation, and the main geotechnical characteristics of the target site. Therefore, the approach is suitable for use in scenario-based risk analysis a larger number of time histories are required for representation of the seismic hazard. Near-field effects are implemented in the stochastic source model using engineering approximations. The approach is suggested for use in areas of low seismicity where ground motion records of larger earthquakes are not available. Uncertainty analysis indicates that ground motions generated by individual earthquakes are well constrained and that the usual lognormal model is not the best choice for predicting the upper tail of the distribution of the ground motions.