2001年昆仑山口西MS8.1地震破裂时空过程的统一模型

2001年昆仑山口西M_S8.1地震经历了一个复杂的破裂过程,其破裂长、幅度大、破裂速度多变,成为大陆型地震研究的典型地震。本文融合近场高精度大地测量观测（4幅InSAR影像,34个GPS点位同震位移）和高信噪比远震波形记录,基于有限断层反演理论,联合反演得到该地震同震破裂时空过程的统一模型;同时,基于欧洲区域台网波形数据,利用反投影方法获得高频破裂的时空展布。联合反演结果表明,破裂自西向东传播的过程中走向有所变化,破裂尺度达400km,最大滑移量达8m,地震矩大小为6.1×10²⁰Nm,对应的矩震级M_W为7.78。主断层破裂经历了3个阶段,其中,超剪切破裂阶段对应最大位错区域,破裂到达西大滩段与昆仑山口断层交叉处时,破裂速度与尺度迅速下降。反投影结果同样显示破裂的3个阶段空间上对应大地测量反演的3个最大破裂区,最大破裂区的扩展速度达6km/s,但超剪切破裂终止在断层交叉口东部约30km处断层走向发生转变的位置。     

2001年永胜6 级地震的地表破裂与程海断裂

综合研究结果表明程海断裂晚更新世晚期以来大地震活动的时间间隔在1500a以上,因此未来一定时间段内,程海断裂还主要以6级左右的中强震为主。     

Earthquake Hazard Assessment for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India, Including a Characteristic Earthquake Recurrence Model for the Himalaya Frontal Fault (HFF)

The seismic hazard has been computed for the city of Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India. The city lies in the Himalayan foothills between two faults: the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Himalayan Frontal Fault (HFF). The contributions from these two faults have been modelled differently in a probabilistic model. While the MBT has been modelled with a Poissonian earthquake distribution, the HFF has been modelled both with a characteristic earthquake recurrence model and a Poissonian model. The hazard scenarios reveal different patterns depending on the classical approaches and the characteristic models applied, and the obtained results indicate that Dehradun may experience PGA shaking around 2.2?m/s² for 225 years return period and around 4.6?m/s² for a 2,500?years return period.     

利用1-HzGPS波形数据反演2011年日本北大地震震源破裂过程

利用1-Hz GPS数据反演2011年3月日本东北大地震的时空破裂过程,通过理论波形图与观测波形图的拟合,以及ABIC准则的判定,反演得到滑移分布的稳定估计.结果表明:破裂集中在震源附近,并在震中以下30 km处达到最大位错量,约72 m,在岩手和福岛靠近海岸线处有两个较小的破裂区,断层的南半段破裂很小,同时也是余震最为密集的地方.整个破裂过程由3个破裂阶段组成,发震后断层从震源向周围缓慢破裂,在50～60 s破裂延伸至地表(海沟);60～90 s在震中下方迅速发生强烈破裂,形成了最大位错区,这一阶段主要是倾向上的双边破裂;90～120 s在断层最北西处和断层南半段发生较小破裂,整个破裂过程持续大约120 s.反演得到的地震矩为3.8×1022 Nm,相应的矩震级为MW 9.0.     

A Rupture Model for the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake from Inversion of Teleseismic Data Using the Hybrid Homomorphic Deconvolution Method

This study investigates the kinematics of the rupture process of the M _L 7.3 Chi–Chi, Taiwan, earthquake on September 21, 1999. By applying the proposed hybrid homomorphic deconvolution method to deconvolve teleseismic broadband P-wave displacement recordings of the earthquake, this study derives the apparent source time functions (ASTFs) at ten stations located around the epicenter. To further characterize the fault, the kinematic history of the rupture was inverted from ASTFs using a genetic algorithm, coupled with nonlinear iterative technique. The calculated ASFTs reveal that the total rupture event lasted for approximately 27 s. Static slip distribution images indicate that most slip occurred at shallower portions of the fault plane, especially 20–55 km north of the epicenter. The maximum slip reached 20 m at 45 km north of the epicenter, and the average slip throughout the observed rupture area was approximately 2 m. Large asperities on the fault appeared at 25–35 km and 40–50 km north of the hypocenter, and coincided with relatively high rupture velocity. This suggests that the earthquake’s energy may have been released quickly. The rupture velocity decreased upon encountering an asperity, and increased again after passing the asperity. This implies that the rupture required more time to overcome the resistances of the asperities. The maximum rupture velocity was 3.8 km/s, while the average rupture velocity was approximately 2.2 km/s. The rise time distribution suggests that larger slip amplitudes generally correspond to shorter rise times on the subfaults.     

用频率域台阵技术推测2001年昆仑山口西大地震的破裂时间与几何特征

地震台阵的概念产生于1960年代.最初的目的是检测和识别地下核爆炸.随着时间的推移,台阵资料的应用范围逐渐扩大.如:地震台阵在地球表面稠密的空间采样使台阵资料能够应用于地球内部速度结构细节的研究、区域尺度的高分辨率层析成像、小尺度地幔结构研究以及核幔边界与内核的各向异性研究.     

Test of the EEPAS Forecasting Model on the Japan Earthquake Catalogue

The EEPAS (Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale) model is a method of forecasting earthquakes based on the notion that the precursory scale increase () phenomenon occurs at all scales in the seismogenic process. The rate density of future earthquake occurrence is computed directly from past earthquakes in the catalogue. The EEPAS model has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue and successfully tested on the California catalogue.Here we describe a further test of the EEPAS model in the Japan region spanning 1965–2001, initially on earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding the threshold value 6.75. A baseline model and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value were fitted to the JMA catalogue over the learning period 1926–1964. The performance of EEPAS, with the key parameters unchanged from the New Zealand values, was compared with that of the baseline model over the testing period, using a likelihood ratio criterion. The EEPAS model proved superior. A sensitivity analysis shows that this result is not sensitive to the choice of the learning period or b-value, but that the advantage of EEPAS over the baseline model diminishes as the magnitude threshold is lowered. When key model parameters are optimised for the Japan catalogue, the advantage of EEPAS over the baseline model is consistent for all magnitudes above 6.25, although less than in the New Zealand and California regions.These results add strength to the proposition that the EEPAS model is effective at a variety of scales and in a variety of seismically active regions.     

A Simple Model for Earthquake Instability

Based on the heterogeneity of fault plane strength,the macro rupture process of a fault plane can be treated as the rupture accumulation process of local micro-elements in the fault surface.Assuming that the strength of the local micro-elements follows the Weibull probability distribution,the macro-fault constitutive relationship of the complete load-deformation process is derived from a statistical mechanics viewpoint.Applying a one-dimensional earthquake mechanics model and using far-field displacement a as the control variable,the problem of earthquake instability is investigated by employing the stability theory.The results show that the system stiffness ratio(stiffness ratio of fault to surroun-ding rock) β is the important parameter that affects the occurrence of earthquakes.Earthquake instability occurs only when β < 1,and the sudden stress jump appears at the displacement turning point of the equilibrium path curve.The expression of three important parameters for earthquakes(fault half-dislocation distance after earthquake,earthquake stress drop and elastic energy release) is also given.When β≥1,the earthquake does not occur and the fault only slips slowly without an earthquake.     

地震不稳定性的一个简单模型

基于断层面强度的非均匀性,将断层面的宏观破裂过程看作是断面局部微元的破裂累积过程,假设断层局部微元强度遵循Weibull概率分布,从统计力学角度推导出了宏观的断层载荷.变形的全过程本构关系.采用一维地震力学模型,以远场位移a为控制变量,用稳定性理论研究了地震不稳定性问题.研究表明,系统刚度比(围岩刚度与断层刚度之比)β是影响地震发生的重要参数,只有当β<1时才会出现地震失稳,且应力突跳发生在平衡路径曲线的位移转向点,并给出了地震过程的3个重要参数(地震后断层半错距、地震应力降和释放的弹性能)的表达式.当β≥1时,不会发生地震,仅是缓慢的断层滑动,属于无震滑动.     

1927年古浪8级地震的破裂习性及破裂机制的数值模拟

1927年古浪8级地震是继1920年海原8．5级地震之后发生在海原一祁连山断裂带上的另一次特大地震。对这次地震的破裂习性，前人的研究结果存在较大分歧。本文在多探槽揭露和地面追踪调查基础上，结合相关的历史资料分析后，认为本次地震是由构成古浪推覆体的天桥沟一黄羊川断裂、皇城双塔断裂冬青顶断裂段以及武威一天祝隐伏断裂等共同作用的结果。对古浪推覆体平面和剖面变形机制的有限元数值模拟结果显示，其应力和应变的集中区主要分布在天桥沟一黄羊川断裂西段、皇城一双塔断裂冬青顶一带以及武威一天祝隐伏断裂和古浪一双塔断裂所在的古浪峡一带，这与地震地表破裂带的展布是一致的，同时也进一步说明了1927年古浪8级地震是该推覆体整体活动的结果。     

2011年日本MW9.1地震前后破裂区内视应力时空变化

2011年3月11日, 一个 M_W9.1地震袭击了日本本州地区, 为了分析这次地震前后主震破裂区内应力时空变化, 我们选取1996年1月~2016年6月期间发生在破裂区内的563个5.0≤M_S≤6.9地震, 研究了视应力随时间的变化和空间分布。 日本M_W9.1地震前从2002年中起视应力开始呈趋势性上升变化, 到2009年初以0.18 MPa/a的速率从0.6 MPa上升到1.76 MPa, 相差约3倍, 直到地震发生前夕一直保持在1.5 MPa之上。 地震发生之后, 直到2016年6月在破裂区内视应力呈缓慢下降变化, 但仍保持在1.5 MPa之上较高水平。 视应力在地面上和断层面上的分布显示, 1996—2005年间破裂区仅存在个别视应力高值, 从2006年到2011年2月, 破裂区大面积出现视应力高值。 在日本M_W9.1地震发生之后的近3个月内, 破裂区视应力整体处于高值水平, 之后在较高的水平上缓慢减弱。 视应力是地震断层面上平均应力的下限, 视应力的高低在一定程度上反映的是震源断层面上平均应力的高低。 在日本M_W9.1地震前, 发生在破裂区内的地震, 其断层面上的平均应力经历了大约8.5年的趋势上升变化过程。 这次大地震前破裂区所在的地壳应力逐渐增加, 最后导致断层面错动发生日本M_W9.1地震。     

Relocation of the 2001 Earthquake Sequence in Aegion,Greece

The western part of the Corinth Gulf attracts attention because of its seismically active complex fault system and considerable seismic hazard. Close to the city of Aegion, damaged by the M _L 6.2 earthquake of 1995, a sequence of small earthquakes occurred from February to May 2001. The sequence, comprising 171 events of M _L 1.8 to 4.7, was recorded by a short-period network of the University of Patras, PATNET. As most stations have single component-recording, the S-wave arrival time readings were scarce. A sub-set of 139 events was recorded by at least 5 stations, and in this study we limit ourselves just to that sub-set. A preliminary location is performed by a standard linearized kinematic approach, with several starting depths and crustal models. Then the mainshock is re-located, and finally it is used as a master event to locate the remaining events. The mainshock relocation is performed by a systematic 3D grid search, and the trade-off between depth and origin time is eliminated by a special procedure, the so-called station difference (SD) method. In the SD method, instead of inverting arrival times directly, their intra-station differences are employed. The station corrections, determined from the master event, are also used. As a result, the sub-set is imaged as a relatively tight cluster, occupying space of about 5 by 5 km horizontally and 10 km vertically, with the mainshock inside (at a depth of 7 km). The results should be interpreted with caution, mainly as regards the absolute depth position of the cluster. A more accurate location would require a local network with both P and S readings.     

The k -2 Rupture Model Parametric Study: Example of the 1999 Athens Earthquake

We employ a realistic finite-extent k ^-2 stochastic source model with k-dependent rise time, introduced by Bernard et al. (1996) and extended by Gallovi and Brokeová (2004), to synthesize the strong ground motions in near source distances. For a given magnitude, this rupture model involves a number of free parameters (fault dimensions, slip roughness, maximum rise time, slip velocity function). We study their influence on the peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps (parametric study) for an example of the 1999 Athens earthquake of M _w = 5.9. The observed macroseismic intensities serve us as a rough constraint on the simulated PGA's to find a set of suitable k ^-2 models. These models agree with empirical source scaling relations.     

1976年龙陵震群序列的破裂特征

龙陵地震是由８个６级以上地震组成的强震震群序列，采用地震活动图象和震源机制资料的构造分析方法，得到带有运动学和动力学特征的震源破裂组合在地面的投影图象，配合其它资料，提出龙陵地震序列强震的破裂特征是：由３条北东东向左旋走滑断层和２条北北西向右旋走滑断层组成的共轭破裂组合，进一步讨论了某些有关的地震地质问题。     

山西1303年大地震破裂对相邻断裂段地震复发行为的影响

根据历史地震资料分析了山西断陷带中3个相连接断裂段的地震复发过程及其与1303年8级地震的联系.结果发现1303年大地震破裂曾造成相邻断裂段上地震复发行为发生改变,其中,北邻断裂段的一次地震被提前了300～400 a发生,南邻断裂段的另一次地震则被推迟了约300a发生,而1303年破裂过的一部分断裂面很可能长期处于较低的破坏应力下并以中强地震作调整性活动.在未受到1303年破裂影响的时期,各断裂段的地震复发均表现出时间可预测行为.通常认为,一个断裂段的破裂将会造成相连接的邻段至下一次地震时间间隔的缩短,但本文却发现这也可造成邻段至下一次地震时间间隔的延长.     

日本海域发生里氏7.1级地震

据日本媒体报道,日本本州岛西海岸的石川县能登半岛附近海域3月25日早上9时42分左右发生里氏7.1级地震,目前已经造成至少1人死亡170人受伤,200所房屋被毁。据报道,地震灾区距东京以西300km,震中位于地下约50km。地震引发的山崩导致当地道路交通瘫痪。能登半岛西部小镇一名52岁的妇女在地震中丧生,40多人受伤,多数为轻伤。附近几个县已经派出约400名警察前往现场协助救灾。据悉,地震发生时首都东京有明显震感,日本气象厅也随即发出海啸警报,在1个多小时后,又解除了海啸警报。(董泰)日本海域发生里氏7.1级地震@董泰…     

日本新潟M7.0地震及防震减灾工作综述

2004年10月23日，日本新潟县中越地区发生M7．0强烈地震，造成了人员伤亡和财产损失。综合介绍了这次地震的破坏情况和对日本社会、经济的影响，日本政府应急救援工作，发震和构造背景及历史地震记录和这次地震的经验教训及启示。概述了日本的地震管理和应急救援体制，地震预报计划的沿革，日本推进地震调查研究的方针政策以及对日本地震防灾体系的评价等情况。