Seismic Hazard Estimates Using Ill-defined Macroseismic Data at Site

—?A new approach is proposed to the seismic hazard estimate based on documentary data concerning local history of seismic effects. The adopted methodology allows for the use of “poor” data, such as the macroseismic ones, within a formally coherent approach that permits overcoming a number of problems connected to the forcing of available information in the frame of “standard” methodologies calibrated on the use of instrumental data. The use of the proposed methodology allows full exploitation of all the available information (that for many towns in Italy covers several centuries) making possible a correct use of macroseismic data characterized by different levels of completeness and reliability. As an application of the proposed methodology, seismic hazard estimates are presented for two towns located in Northern Italy: Bologna and Carpi.     

地震研究揭示出加州的"热点"

在今后几十年 ,地震对加州造成的财产损失估计每年为 3 9亿美元 ,因此地震学家们把目标放在最危险的地区。他们的工作之一是教育公众 ,使他们了解 ,为什么建筑物下的地质状况会使建筑物在消耗地震波或经受住地震波方面存在差别。加州资源保护部矿物和地质处曾于 2 0 0 0年9月公布了对未来地震损失的预测结果。最近 ,他们又系统地绘出了加州 60平方英里 ( 1英里 =1 .60 9千米——译注 )的剖面图。该剖面图显示了构成威胁的滑坡区域和水饱和沙土。众所周知 ,当地震发生时 ,这种软土会发生液化。该地震灾害图覆盖 1 2 0多个城市 ,其中包括橙县…     

Macroseismic intensity attenuation in Iran

Macroseismic intensity data plays an important role in the process of seismic hazard analysis as well in developing of reliable earthquake loss models. This paper presents a physical-based model to predict macroseismic intensity attenuation based on 560 intensity data obtained in Iran in the time period 1975–2013. The geometric spreading and energy absorption of seismic waves have been considered in the proposed model. The proposed easy to implement relation describes the intensity simply as a function of moment magnitude, source to site distance and focal depth. The prediction capability of the proposed model is assessed by means of residuals analysis. Prediction results have been compared with those of other intensity prediction models for Italy, Turkey, Iran and central Asia. The results indicate the higher attenuation rate for the study area in distances less than 70 km.     

Macroseismic estimates of magnitude in Italy

A multi-parametric study of empirical relationships between macroseismic data and magnitude is presented for the Italian region by the analysis of a new extended data set concerning 146 earthquakes. The available magnitude determinations include all of the most intense earthquakes which occurred in Italy in the last century and have been obtained by an accurate revision of original instrumental data. Intensity data have been revised and upgraded on the basis of the most recent studies: only local intensities directly documented have been used. Macroseismic determinations ofM _s ,m _B andM _wa magnitudes have been performed. The empirical relationships between maximum felt intensity (I _max ) and magnitude have been determined by the use of a distribution-free approach and a linear regression analysis. This last parameterization allows for the explanation of more than 60% of the variation in magnitude. In order to improve these results, the linear dependence between magnitude,I _max and average distances (in logarithm) corresponding to fixed attenuation values has been explored. The comparison between instrumental magnitudes and corresponding macroseismic estimates obtained from empirical relationships shows that the respective uncertainties are comparable.     

通过对调查数据的趋势和多变量分析确定宏观场

通过多变(相关分析)和趋势分析等统计方法对宏观调查数据进行了解释.这种方法使我们通过评定不同宏观效应叠加的程度、估计调查数据的不确定性更客观地评定烈度.通过滤波确定烈度场的区域分量,使我们消除观测中的局部变化.给出了选取适当滤波参数的准则.本文应用这一方法对发生在意大利的一次地震的调查数据进行了处理.     

Strong earthquakes in the Pribaikalie: Macroseismic data

In this work the data on earthquakes in the Pribaikalie over the pre-instrumental observation period are given. The methods of determination of local and remote earthquakes with limited information of macroseismic effects are considered. A lists of strong (M ≥ 5) earthquakes in the southern Pribaikalie, as well as a list all earthquakes in the Southeastern Transbaikalian and the South of the Siberian platform, is given.     

Exceptionally Hot and Cold Summers in Europe (1951-2010)

The paper explores exceptional thermal conditions, an area of research that has increased in significance in the context of the changes that are being observed in climate. Specifically, the study addressed the frequency, long-term change and spatial coverage of exceptionally hot summers, and exceptionally cool summers (EHS and ECS) in Europe. The statistical criterion of plus/minus two standard deviations from the long-term average was used to identify EHS and ECS at 60 weather stations over the period 1951–2010. The study has demonstrated that EHS are characterised by greater temperature anomalies than ECS and are approximately twice as frequent. They occurred virtually everywhere within the study area, whilst ECS are concentrated in its northern part. Five EHS (1972, 2002, 2003, 2007, and 2010) and three ECS (1956, 1962, and 1976) were large enough to be recorded by at least 10% of the stations.     

Macroseismic attenuation in the Campanian area, southern Italy

The main objective of the present study is to evaluate seismic attenuation relationships for the Campanian area (southern Italy) using the felt intensity report data obtained from comprehensive historical databases (DOM 4.1). We focused our attention on the Campania region because it is characterized by a high seismic hazard and risk, particularly in the Naples area and its suburbs. In order to derive an attenuation relationship for the area, we fitted the observed data by using several functions. We found that a linear plus logarithmic model gives the best fits for the data in the Campanian region. Most of the attenuation relationships proposed up to now for the Italian Peninsula have an isotropic behavior and do not always properly describe the macroseismic attenuation. Therefore, in order to check the possible dependence of the attenuation on the azimuth of the seismic rays, we divided our data set in octants and performed for each of them the same analysis we carried out for the whole data set. The obtained results differ from octant to octant and the differences, besides being associated with the source effects, could be interpreted as probably due to the existence of lateral variations in the lithological and physical features of the crust at different depths, which could affect the patterns of attenuation.     

汶川8.0级地震仪器烈度与宏观烈度对比分析

利用2008年汶川M8.0地震获得的强震动记录数据,根据《仪器地震烈度计算暂行规程》计算得到各台站处的仪器地震烈度值,分析仪器地震烈度与宏观地震烈度的对应关系,研究该仪器烈度计算方法的适用性。结果表明,利用该算法所得的仪器烈度值与宏观烈度完全吻合的比率为47.5%,偏差±1度以内的比率为89.1%,说明二者对应情况较为理想,仪器烈度可在一定程度上客观反映实际的震害情况;在各宏观烈度区内仪器烈度值虽然具有一定的离散性,但其均值与宏观烈度区值的偏差相对较小,均控制在±0.3度以内。另外,文中还绘制了汶川地震仪器烈度分布图,虽然与宏观烈度在整体分布上具有一定的对应关系,但受多种因素的影响,仪器烈度分布与宏观烈度分布不可能完全一致。仪器烈度与宏观烈度的概念和属性有所差异,发挥的作用也不尽相同,不应混淆和相互替代。     

Heat Tracing in a Fractured Aquifer with Injection of Hot and Cold Water

Heat as a tracer in fractured porous aquifers is more sensitive to fracture-matrix processes than a solute tracer. Temperature evolution as a function of time can be used to differentiate fracture and matrix characteristics. Experimental hot (50 °C) and cold (10 °C) water injections were performed in a weathered and fractured granite aquifer where the natural background temperature is 30 °C. The tailing of the hot and cold breakthrough curves, observed under different hydraulic conditions, was characterized in a log–log plot of time vs. normalized temperature difference, also converted to a residence time distribution (normalized). Dimensionless tail slopes close to 1.5 were observed for hot and cold breakthrough curves, compared to solute tracer tests showing slopes between 2 and 3. This stronger thermal diffusive behavior is explained by heat conduction. Using a process-based numerical model, the impact of heat conduction toward and from the porous rock matrix on groundwater heat transport was explored. Fracture aperture was adjusted depending on the actual hydraulic conditions. Water density and viscosity were considered temperature dependent. The model simulated the increase or reduction of the energy level in the fracture-matrix system and satisfactorily reproduced breakthrough curves tail slopes. This study shows the feasibility and utility of cold water tracer tests in hot fractured aquifers to boost and characterize the thermal matrix diffusion from the matrix toward the flowing groundwater in the fractures. This can be used as complementary information to solute tracer tests that are largely influenced by strong advection in the fractures.     

1999年山西应县——浑源4.6级地震宏观烈度考察报告

在对１９９９年５月１５日山西省应县－浑源ＭＬ４．６地震宏观烈度考察的基础上,得出极限区烈度为Ⅵ度,呈椭圆形,长轴走向北东,长度１３ｋｍ,短轴１０ｋｍ,面积１０２ｋｍ＾２的结论。分析了地震的发展构造,认为北东向的恒山北麓断裂是控制大同盆地的南部边界断裂,为控震构造,北西向的次级活动断层为此次地震的发展构造。指出,该次地震破坏较重的原因是由于震源浅。     

Tree Coring as a Complement to Soil Gas Screening to Locate PCE and TCE Source Zones and Hot Spots

Preliminary risk assessment for prioritisation of site investigations requires efficient screening to reveal type and level of contamination. The screening methods, tree coring and soil gas sampling were applied and compared at two forested sites contaminated with tetrachloroethylene (PCE) or trichloroethylene (TCE) to evaluate their ability to locate source zones and contaminant hot spots. One test site represented a relatively homogeneous sandy soil and aquifer, and the second a more heterogeneous geology with both sandy and less permeable clay till layers overlying a chalk aquifer. Tree cores from different tree species were sampled and analysed, and compared to soil gas measurements and existing soil gas data. Both methods were found useful as screening tools to locate hot spots of PCE and TCE in the shallow subsurface. Tree coring was found to be particularly beneficial as a complement to soil gas sampling at sites with low permeable soils, and where contamination was located in the capillary rise or shallow groundwater. The shorter time required for tree coring reduced the costs compared to soil gas sampling, but the sensitivity and precision of tree coring were lower. However, this did not affect the feasibility of using tree coring to locate the hot spots. Moreover, a combination of the two methods can help to focus any subsequent investigations like soil or groundwater sampling. The use of tree coring to complement soil gas sampling for pre‐screening is expected to result in higher certainty for revealing hot spots and source zones at contaminated sites.     

1999年山西大同-阳高5.6级地震宏观烈度考察报告

叙述了对１９９９年１１月１日山西大同－阳高Ｍｓ５．６地震的宏观考察情况,确定了宏观震中的烈度,圈定了Ⅶ度、Ⅵ度、Ⅴ度烈度区的范围。指出极震区呈椭圆形,长轴北西向,长９．６ｋｍ,短轴北东向,长４．２ｋｍ,面积约３２．０ｋｍ＾２。阐述了震前宏观异常现象及震区的地质构造环境,得出了本次地震的发震构造为团保断裂的结论。     

Macroseismic Intensity Modelling of Earthquakes in Southern Spain: Attenuation and Tectonic Implications

A modelling of the observed macroseismic intensity of historical and instrumental earthquakes in southern Spain is proposed, with the aim of determining the macroseismic parameters for seismic hazard evaluation in a region in which the characterization of intensity distribution of seismic events shows different levels of difficulty referable to the complex faults system of the area in study. The adopted procedure allows an analytical determination of epicenters and principal attenuation directions of earthquakes with a double level of verification with reference to the maximum shaking area and structural lineaments of the region, respectively. The analyses, carried out on a suitable number of events, highlight, therefore, some elements for a preliminary characterization of a seismic zonation on the basis of the consistency between seismic intensity distribution of earthquakes and corresponding structural framework.     

On the Observed Intensity Filtering in the Anisotropic Distribution Modelling of Macroseismic Intensity

The anisotropic modelling of intensity distribution, affected by the construction of macroseismic planes, allows an analysis of the influence of each point of observed intensity on the analytical determination of epicenter and of the principal attenuation directions. Such a procedure is a vital aid in the cases in which the observed intensity points, that, for location or joined intensity level, are not consistent with an anisotropic model of intensity attenuation. A suitable filtering on intensity levels associated with the points of the intensity map, for a better modelling of observed intensity distribution, is proposed with the aim of a better seismic hazard evaluation.     

1999年3月25日广东河源ML4.7级地震宏观影响场

根据地震现场宏观烈度调查资料,介绍了１９９９年３月２５日广东河源市ＭＬ４．７级地震的影响场特征,与其他相近震级地震作了比较,发现这次地震的Ⅵ度极震区明显偏小,并认为这次地震与ＮＮＥ和近ＥＷ向的断裂活动有密切关系。     

2013年甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震仪器烈度与宏观调查烈度比较分析

对西北强震动台网中心收集的2013年7月22日甘肃岷县-漳县M_S6.6地震117组三分向加速度记录进行处理和初步分析,计算出相应的仪器烈度值。将该值与岷县漳县地震烈度图（中国地震局,2013）中的烈度区值进行对比,偏差在1度以内的占台站总数的81.8%。将地震仪器烈度与强震台站周边5 km内调查点烈度对比分析,完全吻合的台站占50%,略低于芦山地震58.6%。灾害调查分析认为岷县-漳县地震灾区建筑以土木结构和木结构为主,在相同烈度情况下,破坏比例大于其他地区。因此,虽然仪器烈度与震后宏观调查烈度不能达到完全吻合,但前者在一定程度上反映了震害情况,可快速为应急救援决策提供依据。另外,震后宏观烈度资料是一定区域范围内的平均或延伸,而强震数据只是个别点上的数据,不能忽略两者之间的差异性。     

On the Intensity Virtual Area Characterization in the Intensity Distribution Modelling by Macroseismic Planes

A procedure is proposed for the reconfiguration of the macroseismic planes relative to earthquakes that, being characterized by a reduced number of points of observed intensity due to a lack of information, or having the epicenter very close to the coastline, are characterized by an incomplete distribution of observed intensity levels. The design of a plurality of virtual areas, through which a distribution of intensity consistent with an anisotropic model of attenuation is depicted, allows a reliable determination of macroseismic parameters of the same seismic event.     

1999年山西应县—浑源4.6级地震宏观烈度考察报告

在对 1999年 5月 15日山西省应县—浑源 ML4.6地震宏观烈度考察的基础上 ,得出极震区烈度为 度 ,呈椭圆形 ,长轴走向北东 ,长度 13km,短轴 10 km,面积 10 2 km2的结论。分析了地震的发震构造 ,认为北东向的恒山北麓断裂是控制大同盆地的南部边界断裂 ,为控震构造 ,北西向的次级活动断层为此次地震的发震构造。指出 ,该次地震破坏较重的原因是由于震源浅     

青藏块体东北缘潜在强震震源研究

依据单一力源模型的基本原理 ,利用青藏块体东北缘多年来水准观测垂直位移资料 ,反演该区 2 0a来中强地震的潜在震源力学参数与未来可能的危险区域 ,得到 :①如果确定所选研究区仅有一个等价强震力源 ,反演的强震力源与实际震中符合度较好 ,这对中强地震地点的预测有一定的参考价值 ;②在青藏块体东北缘6级左右的地震 ,比较合理的可研究范围一般为震源有效半径的 1 0倍 ,对应的等价力源的量级约为 1 0 1 1 N ;③从 1 995～ 2 0 0 0年的分区模拟结果看 ,在祁连的中段存在一个潜在的等价强震力源 (1× 1 0 1 1 N) ;另外 ,在青海与甘肃南部交界处存在一个潜在的等价强震力源 ,该力源深度为 5km ,大小达到 5× 1 0 1 1 N。