气候变化国家评估报告（Ⅲ）：中国应对气候变化对策的综合评价

 回顾了国际社会应对气候变化的进程，对国内外的碳排放状况、中国减缓碳排放的技术潜力、中国减缓碳排放的宏观影响、全球减缓气候变化的公平性与国际合作行动等问题进行了分析与评估。提出了中国减缓气候变化的思路与对策，指出在全球应对气候变化的形势下，中国要积极适应国际政治、经济及贸易格局变动的趋势，将减缓气候变化对策纳入国家经济与社会发展战略与规划之中，促进国家经济和社会的全面、协调和可持续发展。     

The interpretation and highlights on mitigation of climate change in IPCC AR6 WGIII report北大核心CSCD

2022年4月4日,IPCC第六次评估报告第三工作组《气候变化2022:减缓气候变化》报告和决策者摘要发布。报告全面评估了2010年以来减缓气候变化领域的最新科学进展,为国际社会深度认识和理解全球温室气体排放情况、不同温升水平下的减排路径以及可持续发展背景下的气候变化减缓和适应行动等提供了重要科学依据。基于报告主要结论,围绕温室气体排放的区域差异、减缓路径分类、与土地利用相关的排放评估及CO去除技术评估等方面的亮点,文中提出在应对气候变化减缓政策行动中,中国应坚定“双碳”战略目标,在综合考虑经济发展阶段和资源禀赋差异背景下,将可持续发展、公平和消除贫困植根于社会发展愿景中实施减缓路径,并加快提升气候变化综合评估核心科学技术的研发进度,以进一步提升国际影响力和话语权。     

欢迎投稿和订阅《气候变化研究进展》

《气候变化研究进展》(双月刊)是由中国气象局国家气候中心主办的气候变化领域内由自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术刊物。本刊致力于促进气候变化学科发展,并推动其研究成果在社会和经济可持续发展,适应和减缓气候变化措施制定,气候政策与环境外交谈判,生态与环境改善,气候资源保护、开发和高效利用等方面的应用。《气候变化研究进展》主要发表国内外气候变化研究的最新成果与进展,以及与气候变化有关的交叉学科,如地球科学、生态与环境科学、人文与社会科学等方面的最新研究论文;报道全球变化最新的观测事实、重要信息及应对全球气候变化的适应、减缓措施和技术研究成果等;反映与气候变化相关的各类国际、国内重大活动、     

《巴黎协定》与国际减缓气候变化合作模式的变迁

由于温室气体排放的全球外部性属性,减缓气候变化必须通过国际合作实现,必须体现一定程度的中央集权,考虑参与主体广泛性、减缓行动的范围和行动力度三大要素。《联合国气候变化框架公约》《京都议定书》及其“多哈修正案”“坎昆协议”等方案,对中央集权程度和三大要素各有取舍,构建了不同的国际减缓气候变化合作模式,但从实践看都未能解决国际减缓合作的问题。《巴黎协定》构建了“承诺+审评”的新模式,有望实现参与主体和行动范围的全覆盖,并通过透明度、遵约和全球盘点机制鼓励各参与方提高行动力度。然而要实现公约目标和科学应对气候变化的要求,《巴黎协定》下的国际减缓合作必须通过强化资金、技术、能力建设机制来保障,并通过进一步明确中长期量化目标来促进各方提高行动力度。     

欢迎投稿和订阅《气候变化研究进展》北大核心CSCD

《气候变化研究进展》(双月刊)是由中国气象局国家气候中心主办的气候变化领域内由自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术刊物。本刊致力于促进气候变化学科发展,并推动其研究成果在社会和经济可持续发展,适应和减缓气候变化措施制定,气候政策与环境外交谈判,生态与环境改善,气候资源保护、开发和高效利用等方面的应用。《气候变化研究进展》主要发表国内外气候变化研究的最新成果与进展,以及与气候变化有关的交叉学科,如地球科学、生态与环境科学、人文与社会科学等方面的最新研究论文;报道全球变化最新的观测事实、重要信息及应对全球气候变化的适应、减缓措施和技术研究成果等;反映与气候变化相关的各类国际、国内重大活动、     

欢迎投稿、订阅《气候变化研究进展》

由中国气象局国家气候中心主办的综合性学术刊物《气候变化研究进展》(双月刊),已于2005年3月1日经国家新闻出版总署正式批准创刊,创刊号将于2005年5月底正式出版。《气候变化研究进展》主要发表国内外气候变化研究的最新成果与进展以及与气候变化有关的交叉学科,如地球科学、生态、环境科学、人文、社会科学等方面的最新研究论文;报道全球变化最新的观测事实、重要信息及应对全球气候变化的适应、减缓措施和技术研究成果等;反映与气候变化相关的各类国际、国内重大活动、重大科技计划及国际环境外交谈判的信息。主要栏目有:“科学论文”、…     

共享社会经济路径在土地利用、能源与碳排放研究的应用

情景是气候变化研究的重要工具。为了科学支撑气候变化科学评估和研究，2010年政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）提出了共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，SSPs）。作为从社会经济变化视角构建的气候情景，SSPs促进了气候变化科学基础、影响、脆弱性、风险、适应和减缓等学科的综合研究。本文介绍了SSPs情景研发与应用过程；阐述了全球和中国的人口经济、土地利用、能源和碳排放的模拟和预估主要成果；探讨了全球和中国碳排放路径及其与“双碳”目标的关系；并展望了SSPs应用前景。     

对IPCC第五次评估报告减缓气候变化国际合作评估结果的解读

IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告首次对减缓气候变化国际合作进行了独立成章的评估。主要结论认为,《联合国气候变化框架公约》依然是国际合作主要多边论坛,但对该《公约》基本原则的理解出现分歧,《京都议定书》的表现不尽如人意;目前国际合作机制在架构和参与主体方面日趋多元化;国际合作所面临的主要问题是参与度不够、遵约机制不健全。一个“自下而上”的全球协议、资金和技术激励可以促进广泛参与,贸易措施的介入可以完善气候政策、促进参与和遵约,《公约》外的各种小多边主义通过对接可对《公约》机制起到良好的补充作用。这些评估结论可能对2020年后应对气候变化国际合作产生重要影响。     

适应气候变化政策机制的国际经验与启示

中国高度重视适应气候变化工作,实行减缓与适应并重的应对气候变化原则,已出台适应气候变化相关的战略、规划等一系列政策文件。但总体来看,中国适应气候变化政策与行动尚处于起步阶段,面临着法规制度缺位、监测评估不足、组织协调机制不完善等挑战,适应气候变化政策的类型、数量和力度都明显弱于减缓。为完善中国适应气候变化政策与机制的框架设计,文中梳理了相关研究、《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的适应气候变化国际机制及主要国家经验,提出了一套完整闭环的适应气候变化核心决策流程及关键支撑机制,并重点从开展法制建设、制定适应战略（计划）、建立监测评估机制、构建协调机制和完善资金机制等五方面,归纳了主要国家的经验与启示,最终研究提出完善我国适应气候变化政策与机制框架设计的建议,包括加快建立和完善适应气候变化法制建设、加快构建国家适应气候变化的政策体系、加快完善国家适应气候变化的机制设计、加强适应气候变化支撑能力建设、推动适应气候变化的国际合作等。     

IPCC特别报告SRCCL关于气候变化与粮食安全的新认知与启示

气候变化对粮食安全的影响是广泛的,不但影响粮食产量和品质,还会影响到农户的生计以及农业相关的产业发展等;而粮食系统在保障粮食安全的同时,又会产生一系列的环境问题,其中农业源温室气体（GHG）的排放加剧全球变暖。IPCC在2019年8月份发布的《气候变化与土地特别报告》（SRCCL）,从粮食生产、加工、储存、运输及消费的各个环节评估气候变化对粮食安全的影响及粮食系统的温室气体排放对气候系统的影响;系统梳理粮食系统供给侧和需求侧的适应与减缓措施、适应与减缓的协同和权衡问题,以及气候变化条件下保障粮食安全的政策环境等。SRCCL评估结论认为,由于大量施用氮肥和消耗水资源,目前粮食系统GHG排放占全球总排放的21%~37%;农业和粮食系统是全球应对气候变化的重要方面,供给侧和需求侧的综合措施可以减少食物浪费、减少GHG排放、增加粮食系统的恢复力。未来工作的重点应丰富和扩展气候变化影响评估内容,量化适应效果,加深对适应、减缓及其协同和权衡的科学认知,大力加强应对气候变化能力建设。     

天气和气候极端事件的变化及其与全球变暖的联系——纪念2002年世界气象日“减低对天气和气候极端事件的脆弱性”

2002年3月23日世界气象日的主题是“减低天气和气候极端事件的脆弱性”。针对这个主题,作者对以下四方面问题作了阐述：（1）天气与气候极端事件以及脆弱性的定义;（2）近百年来全球天气与气候极端事件的变化及其与全球气候变化的关系;（3）未来天气与气候极端事件及其影响的预测;（4）天气与气候极端事件的适应与减缓对策。由于篇幅有限,未介绍中国在这方面的研究。     

湖北省应对气候变化的方案分析与政策含义

 应对全球气候变化需要地方采取应对措施。根据湖北省"十一五"规划纲要提出的目标和《中国应对气候变化国家方案》提出的具体任务,通过分析论证气候变化的脆弱性以及经济发展对能源需求的增长,提出了湖北省适应和减缓气候变化的应对方案,并分析了湖北省温室气体排放的3种情景。湖北省作为国家能源和经济格局的组成部分,需要协同国家战略及布局,不仅为湖北省自身,也要为国家的低碳发展做出贡献。     

湖北省应对气候变化的方案分析与政策含义

应对全球气候变化需要地方采取应对措施。根据湖北省"十一五"规划纲要提出的目标和《中国应对气候变化国家方案》提出的具体任务,通过分析论证气候变化的脆弱性以及经济发展对能源需求的增长,提出了湖北省适应和减缓气候变化的应对方案,并分析了湖北省温室气体排放的3种情景。湖北省作为国家能源和经济格局的组成部分,需要协同国家战略及布局,不仅为湖北省自身,也要为国家的低碳发展做出贡献。     

What role for climate negotiations on technology transfer?

Little progress has been made in climate negotiations on technology since 1992. Yet the diffusion of climate change mitigation technologies to developing countries (non-Annex I) has increased dramatically over the last twenty years. The shift has mostly concerned emerging economies, which are now reasonably well connected to international technology flows. This is good news, as the bulk of emissions increases are expected to take place in these countries in the near future. In contrast, the least developed countries still appear to be excluded from international technology flows, mostly because of their negligible participation in the recent economic globalization. This article focuses on the policy implications of the contribution of climate negotiations to international technology diffusion.

Policy relevance

The discrepancy between the small amount of progress made in climate negotiations on technology since 1992 and the steady increase in the international diffusion of climate mitigation technologies leads to the perhaps controversial view that the diffusion of climate mitigation technologies does not need strong international coordination over technology issues under the UNFCCC. However, climate negotiations can play a key role in stimulating the demand for low-carbon technologies by setting ambitious emission reductions targets and policies.     

Overlooked ocean strategies to address climate change

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC’s) Paris Agreement—which aims to limit climate change and increase global resilience to its effects—was a breakthrough in climate diplomacy, committing its Parties to develop and update national climate plans. Yet the Parties to the Agreement have largely overlooked the effect of climate change on ocean-based communities, economies, and ecosystems—as well as the role that the ocean can play in mitigating and adapting to climate change. Because the ocean is an integral part of the climate system, stronger inclusion of ocean issues is critical to achieving the Agreement’s goals. Here we discuss four ocean-climate linkages that suggest specific responses by Parties to the Agreement connected to 1) accelerating climate ambition, including via sustainable ocean-based mitigation strategies; 2) focusing on CO₂ emissions to address ocean acidification; 3) better understanding ocean-based mitigation; and 4) pursuing ocean-based adaptation. These linkages offer a more complete perspective on the reasons strong climate action is necessary and inform a systematic approach for addressing ocean issues under the Agreement to strengthen climate mitigation and adaptation.     

Assessment of the climate preparedness of 30 urban areas in the UK

Cities are increasingly aware of the need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to changes in weather patterns leading to the production of urban climate change plans. The few existing systematic studies of these plans have focused on either adaptation or mitigation issues, and are typically based on surveys completed by city officials rather than analysis of documented evidence. To gain insight into the status of adaptation and mitigation action across the UK, climate change documents from 30 urban areas (representing ~28 % of the UK’s population) were analysed. An Urban Climate Change Preparedness Score, which could be applied to other urban areas outside the UK, has been devised for comparative analysis. This analysis characterizes progress against (i) Assessment, (ii) Planning, (iii) Action, and (iv) Monitoring, for both adaptation and mitigation. The Preparedness Score allows a quantitative comparison of climate change strategies across the urban areas analysed. This methodology can be transferred to other countries and makes an international comparison of urban areas and their climate change adaptation and mitigation plans possible. We found that all areas acknowledge climate change being a threat and that adaptation and mitigation planning and action is required. However, two urban areas did not have official adaptation or mitigation plans. Typically, mitigation activities across all cities were more advanced than adaptation plans. Emissions reduction targets ranged from 10 %–80 % with differing baselines, timeframes and scopes, for defining and meeting these targets. Similar variability was observed across adaptation plans. Several reasons for these differences are considered, but particularly notable is that a combination of incentives and regulation seem to stimulate more comprehensive strategies and action in many urban areas.     

Felt responsibility and climate engagement: Distinguishing adaptation from mitigation

Policy makers and citizens must choose from among a growing variety of strategic options as they try to cope optimally with climate change. As a means of more accurately predicting different types of climate change engagement, we empirically distinguish individuals’ felt responsibility for mitigation (FRm) from felt responsibility for adaptation (FRa), and assess support for different climate action strategies (mitigation and adaptation). We surveyed two U.S. samples two months apart, and the replication study confirmed Study 1′s findings of differing predictive powers for FRm vs. FRa. Each type of felt responsibility, controlling for the other, served as a mediator between belief in global warming (as well as belief in anthropogenic cause of climate change) and its corresponding climate action strategy (mitigation vs. adaptation). FRa predicted adaptation measures but not mitigation measures, while FRm predicted mitigation measures more strongly than it predicted adaptation but did predict both action strategies. We also found important individual differences: people’s disposition toward behaving proactively correlated positively with all types of climate engagement, and political orientation (liberal/conservative ideology) interacted with climate action strategy (mitigation vs. adaptation) in predicting all engagement variables. Comparing levels of support across the political spectrum, the mitigation measures were highly polarizing, while the adaptation measures were less divisive.     

印度应对气候变化国家方案简析

2008年6月印度政府发布了《气候变化国家行动方案》,阐明了印度应对气候变化的原则立场以及减缓和适应措施。方案中明确指出发展中国家是气候变化的最大受害者,发达国家应该承担温室气体减排的责任和义务;由于近年印度排放不断上升,方案也着重提出了提高能效、大力发展可再生能源等措施。与我国发布的《中国应对气候变化国家方案》进行对比,印度国家行动方案中的一些观点和措施值得我国研究和借鉴,该方案为我国进一步提出应对策略、加强国际合作提供了参考。     

Accelerating the sustainability transition: Exploring synergies between adaptation and mitigation in British Columbian communities

While the focus of government climate change policy in many regions is on mitigation, research shows that integrated approaches, focusing equally on mitigation and adaptation, seen in the context of more general sustainability goals, may ultimately yield more productive outcomes. Since 2008, the province of British Columbia has mandated that local governments be carbon neutral in their own operations and has used a suite of policies, outreach and incentive tools to enable them to do so. The Meeting the Climate Change Challenge project explored eleven leading communities in B.C. to empirically examine how climate change policies and innovations are being framed and considered at the local scale.In this paper, we examine the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation, and sustainability. Our findings suggest that, among leading communities, pursuing an integrated sustainability strategy (rather than a narrow focus on climate change) has the potential to yield benefits for both adaptation and mitigation in the majority of cases. The findings suggest that communities leading on climate innovation in the province have moved beyond a siloed approach in considering mitigation and adaptation. These findings have implications on integrated decision making at the municipal scale and multi-level governance, identifying both the challenges and the benefits inherent in pursuing multiple priorities simultaneously.     

未来气候变化科学研究的主要方向和挑战

2014年9月,IPCC联合世界气候研究计划（WCRP）,在瑞士伯尔尼大学召开了一次特别的研讨会,总结过去几年气候变化科学研究中所取得的经验教训。此次会议针对IPCC最新评估报告中的关键不确定性,梳理并总结了未来气候变化研究的主要科学方向和面临的主要挑战,讨论了如何与WCRP计划结合并解决这些问题,以期在未来更好地应对这些挑战。在此次会议上,与会专家提出,未来气候变化科学研究的重大挑战应包括如下8个主题。云、环流与气候敏感度;理解和预测极端天气气候事件;冰冻圈变化;区域气候信息;区域海平面上升及其对沿海地区的影响;水资源可利用量;生物地球化学、气溶胶和大气化学;理解年代际变化：归因与预测。这些主题涵盖了WCRP计划的六大挑战和其他被认为具有挑战性的主题。本文将在此次会议报告的基础上,对相关内容进行介绍,以供当前的气候变化工作参考。