一种基于径向基神经网络的地磁场K指数实时标定方

K指数是一种重要的地磁活动指数,标定K指数的难点在于规则日变化S_R的确定,尽管FMI（Finnish Meteorological Institute,芬兰气象学院）方法能够比较准确地识别规则日变化S_R,给出合理的K指数,但是该方法存在一天的延迟,无法实现实时标定.为了解决这一问题,本文提出了一种基于径向基神经网络的K指数实时标定方法：首先用修正后的FMI方法提取H分量的时均值序列,接着以径向基神经网络对该序列进行建模,最后基于神经网络模型实时获取规则日变化,并结合H分量分均值观测数据标定K指数.实验结果表明：该方法能够以3.8598 nT的标准误差实时获取规则日变化S_R;实时标定的K指数与直接用FMI-H方法延迟一天标定的K指数相比,完全吻合的占69.8%,差别大于一个标度的仅占0.77%.     

北京地磁台K指数3小时扰幅修正及 K指数计算机标定

我国基本处于磁纬40°以下地区,K指数的3小时扰幅一般取:3-6-12-24-40-70-120-200-300 nT.这一K指数3小时扰幅是以磁纬20.88°的佘山地磁台观测数据为基础,按照Bartels 提出的一系列准则而确定的.然而,由于不同地磁台地磁纬度的不同,K指数的3小时扰幅也需要进行相应的修正.本文以北京地磁台(磁纬29.63°)为例,通过频次比较的方法,分别以佘山台K指数和Kp为标准,根据1994~1999年共6年的北京地磁台H分量分均值数据,给出了一个比较合理的北京地磁台K指数3小时扰幅:3.9-7.8-15.6-31.2-47.5-70-120-200-300 nT.基于这一3小时扰幅,采用修正的FMI方法标定了1997年北京地磁台的K指数.将标定结果与磁暴基础数据库中北京台、佘山台和Kp指数进行频次比对,并进行同一3小时段标定差异统计.数据分析表明,修正后比修正前K指数的标定更加合理.     

我国部分台站的高K指数检验

为考察我国地磁台站高K指数纬度分布的同一性,选择北京台,佘山台和广州台磁暴时H分量上最大地磁活动8小时K_(max)≥5时段作样本,按其磁纬分别与国外相应的地磁台站结成对比组。对比发现,我国3个台站K≥6的指数存在不同程度的系统偏高趋势,进一步与K_P指数对比确认,反映我国3个台站上的K≥6高K指数及其相应磁场变幅的系统偏高是一种表观现象,原因是这3个台站的H磁变仪都存在着定向差和其它磁变仪的磁系附加磁场影响的缘故。     

地磁活动K指数自动计算FMI方法的改进

将Kp指数与国际地磁学与高空物理学协会(International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy,下文简称IAGA)推荐的FMI方法(V1.0)计算的K值对比分析后发现,二者的差值在中国区域内出现"不同台站之间K1~K8两头离散、K值整体高出K_p约0.5个单位、个别日期S_R计算错误、相邻日期S_R频繁出现跨天台阶"现象.针对这些现象,分析了可能产生的原因,并对原FMI算法进行了四处改进.用改进后的FMI算法计算了全球8个台站、中国5个台站在2003-2005年和2009年共4年的K指数数据,并将计算结果分别与Kp指数以及这些台站用其他方法计算的K值进行一致性比较,发现改进后的计算结果与二者更为接近,说明本文对FMI方法的改进是有效的.     

利用单台地磁数据估算Ap和Kp指数的可行性分析

通过分析单台长期地磁场扰动幅度和地磁行星指数Ap和Kp关系,对1小时磁扰幅度rH的日平均与Ap进行拟合,快速估算Ap指数.对3小时内rH的平均与Kp进行对数拟合,估算Kp指数.采用肇庆地震台2003-2008年地磁H分量分钟值数据,估算行星Ap和Kp指数,与世界数据中心(WDC)给出的Ap和Kp指数进行统计分析.结果发...     

基于GEI方法对苏皖地区地电活动指数的可靠性研究

使用地电扰动幅度与静日变化幅值比的地电活动指数(GEI)计算方法,连续计算江苏、安徽两省6个地电场台站2018年第一季度的单台地电指数D、平均地电指数Ds。同时将地电指数D、Ds与单台地磁指数K、平均地磁指数K(即[K+0.5])对比得到:86.48%的指数D与指数K完全相同或仅相差1,89.44%的指数D s与指数完全相同或仅相差1。两类电、磁指数的高度吻合说明:(1)连续产出的地电指数是可靠的。(2)地电指数D、Ds可以量化界定地电场活动水平。极个别的地电指数D、Ds与地磁指数K、仍存在一定差异,这与地电场台站观测有关,提升地电场观测资料的质量能更好地确定地电指数。(3)地电指数与地磁指数相互弥补能更准确地确定地球电磁活动水平,其在相关的地球科学技术领域有广泛的应用前景。     

基于地磁水平分量序列的磁暴自动识别

应用小波包分析技术提取了地磁水平分量序列的能量特征,用Fisher方法进行识别,研究了磁暴与非磁暴的识别率在不同时间长度t下的变化规律.当t=1h时,对磁暴与非磁暴的平均识别率达到83.8%;在确定为磁暴的前提下,进一步将磁暴按强度分为强磁暴(磁情指数K≥8)和非强磁暴(K≤7),平均识别率为72.9%.在对地磁水平分量进行连续实时监测的情况下,用这种方法可实现对磁暴的自动识别.     

利用卡尔曼滤波技术提取地磁规则日变化

地磁规则日变化的有效提取能够提高地磁活动指数现报的准确性.本文基于1998—2013年北京十三陵(BMT)台站的地磁数据,利用卡尔曼滤波(KF)方法提取了地磁场规则日变化(S_R)曲线.该方法提取的S_R曲线具有明显的逐日变化特征,能够准确反映S_R曲线的季节变化和地方时效应.根据KF方法得到的S_R日变幅度逐日变化的结果,改进了K指数的量算方法,重新计算了十三陵台站的K指数以及Ak指数,并分析了S_R日变幅度的逐日变化对K指数量算的改进程度.分析结果表明,当K≤3时,KF方法可以较好地改善S_R曲线扰动幅度的计算,提高了地磁规则日变化提取的有效性,从而改进相应的地磁活动指数的量算.     

地磁H、D分量受高压直流输电干扰形态分析

利用全国地磁台站地磁秒数据干扰资料,统计了27条高压直流输电对地磁观测H、D分量造成的干扰情况,研究高压直流输电对地磁观测H、D分量的影响特点,根据统计结果得到了地磁观测H、D分量受高压直流输电影响的多种干扰形态,并对各类形态产生的原因进行了分析,对H、D分量受高压直流干扰形态有了更清晰的认识。     

短周期地磁扰动的时空分布特征研究

本文对2008—2010年隆尧地磁台站的地磁水平分量H和磁偏角D的秒数据进行了短时快速傅里叶变换,按连续型地磁脉动Pc2—Pc6所对应的频率范围对频谱进行了频段划分,在此基础上研究了各频段频谱总幅值即短周期地磁扰动的时空分布特征.在时间变化上,同一年中不同频段的幅值具有相似的变化规律,每年的幅变特性与该年对应的Vr指数的时间分布也具有一致的变化形态,仅仅在变化的幅度上存在差异.磁偏角D的幅值和VrD均呈现出显著的季节变化特征,而水平分量H的幅值和VrH却不显著.在空间变化上,各频段幅值均随地磁纬度的增加而增大,随地方时变化呈现出双峰双谷的特征.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia

Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia.     

THEORETICAL APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION OF THE INFILTRATION PROBLEM

ABSTRACT

The one-dimensional transient downward entry of water in unsaturated soils is investigated theoretically. The mathematical equation describing the infiltration process is derived by combining Darcy's dynamic equation of motion with the continuity and thermodynamic state equations adjusted for the unsaturated flow conditions. The resulting equation together with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions constitues a mathematical initial boundary value problem requiring the solution of a nonlinear partial differential equation of the parabolic type. The volumetric water content is taken as the dependent variable and the time and the position along the vertical direction are taken as the independent variables. The governing equation is of such nature that a solution exists for t > 0 and is uniquely determined if two relationships are defined, together with the specified state of the system, at the initial time t = 0 and at the two boundaries. The two required relations are those of pressure versus permeability and pressure versus volumetric water content.

Since the partial differential equation has strong non-linear terms, a discrete solution is obtained by approximating the derivatives with finite-differences at discrete mesh points in the solution domain and integrated for the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The use of an implicit difference scheme is employed in order to generate a system of simultaneous non-linear equations that has to be solved for each time increment. For n mesh points the two boundary conditions provide two equations and the repetition of the recurrence formula provides n—2 equations, the total being n equations for each time increment. The solution of the system is obtained by matrix inversion and particularly with a back-substitution technique. The FORTRAN statements used for obtaining the solution with an electronic digital computer (IBM 704) are presented together with the input data.

Analysis of the errors involved in the numerical solution is made and the stability and convergence of the solution of the approximate difference equation to that of the differential equation is investigated. The method applied is that of making a Fourier series expansion of a whole line of errors and then following the progress of the general term of the series expansion and also the behavior of each constituent harmonic. The errors (forming a continuous function of points in an abstract Banach space) are represented by vectors with the Fourier coefficients constituting a second Banach space. The amplification factor of the difference equation is shown to be always less than unity which guarantees the stability of the employed implicit recurrence scheme.

Experiments conducted on a vertical column packed uniformly with very fine sand, show a satisfactory agreement between the theoretically and experimentally obtained values. Many experimental results are shown in an attempt to explain the infiltration phenomenon with emphasis on the shape and movement of the wet front, and the effects of the degree of compaction, initial water content and deaired water on the infiltration rate.     

Late Permian post‐ophiolitic trondhjemites from Central Iran: a mark of subduction role in growth of Paleozoic continental crust

Late Permian trondhjemites in the Anarak area occur as stocks and dykes, which cross cut the Anarak ophiolite and its overlying metasedimentary rocks, and are exposed along the northern Anarak east–west main faults. These leucocratic intrusive bodies have enclaves of all ophiolitic units and metamorphic rocks. They are composed of amphibole, plagioclase (oligoclase), quartz, zircon and muscovite. Secondary minerals are chlorite (pycnochlorite), epidote, albite, magnetite and calcite. Whole‐rock major‐ and trace‐element analyses reveal that they are characterized by high SiO ₂ (67.8–71.0 wt%), Al ₂ O ₃ (14.9–17.1 wt%) and Na ₂ O (5.3–8.6 wt%), low K ₂ O (0.1–1.5 wt%; average: 0.8 wt%), low Rb/Sr ratio (0.01–0.40; average: 0.09), low Y (3–6 ppm), negative Ti, Nb and Ta anomalies, slightly negative or positive Eu anomaly, LREE enrichment and fractionated HREE. These rocks present 2 to 40 times enrichment in inclined chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. Geochemical characteristics of the Anarak trondhjemites all reflect melting of a mafic protolith at more than 10 kbar. The field evidence and whole‐rock chemistry reveal that these rocks have been crystallized from magmas derived from melting of subducted Anarak oceanic crust. This study reveals that melting of garnet amphibolite was an important element of continent formation in the study area.