The role of the stratosphere in climate change

A variety of climate perturbations have the potential to alter the thermodynamic and dynamical characteristics of the middle atmosphere, which may then affect tropospheric climate. Increased thermal emission from rising stratospheric CO₂ levels and scattering of solar radiation from stratospheric volcanic aerosols have a direct impact on surface temperatures, while variations in stratospheric water vapor and ozone can affect tropospheric temperatures. Observations and modeling experiments suggest that these perturbations, as well as solar irradiance variations operating through the stratosphere, may affect tropospheric dynamics, such as planetary wave amplitudes and Hadley cell intensity. In addition, climate changes will probably alter tropospheric/stratospheric exchange, with the potential for modifying trace gas distributions and climate forcing. These issues are reviewed in the light of the incorporation of middle atmosphere studies into IGBP.     

Modelling the impact of solar variability on climate

Computer simulations of the impact on climate of solar variability generally fall into four categories. First, there are lower atmosphere GCM experiments, in which enhanced solar activity is represented by changes in spectrally integrated solar constant. Secondly, there are GCM studies of the dynamical response of the middle atmosphere to changes in solar ultraviolet, mainly concentrating on the northern hemisphere winter, and how these impact the troposphere. These studies have been instructive in providing an understanding of some of the mechanisms involved but, because of the very different nature of the assumptions made, give rather different suggestions as to potential patterns of change. In particular predicted zonal mean temperature changes in the lower stratosphere are usually of opposite sign in these two types of experiment. None of these GCM studies include interactive photochemistry and the third category of modelling work is concerned with the photochemical response of the middle atmosphere to enhanced solar ultraviolet. These generally employ 2D models to predict changes in ozone and other gaseous species. Recently it has been realised that the responses (to a variety of external forcings) of the lower and middle atmospheres are linked through both radiative and dynamical mechanisms and should not be viewed in isolation from each other. Thus the fourth type of modelling study, which is still in its infancy, attempts to represent solar variability by realistic changes in both irradiance and ozone concentrations. In this paper these various modelling studies are reviewed and some new results presented which confirm previous theoretical suggestions that, in the northern hemisphere winter, the atmosphere may respond to solar changes in a similar way as to the injection of volcanic aerosol. The implications of the results of the model studies for the detection of solar-induced climate change are discussed.     

Signatures of solar activity variability in meteorological parameters

Solar radiation (both total and in various wavelengths) varies at different time scales—from seconds to decades or centuries—as a consequence of solar activity. The energy received from the Sun is one of the natural driving forces of the Earth's atmosphere and since this energy is not constant, it has been argued that there must be some non-zero climate response to it. This response must be fully specified in order to improve our understanding of the climate system and the impact of anthropogenic activities on it. However, despite all the efforts, if and how subtle variations of solar radiation affect climate and weather still remains an unsolved puzzle. One key element that is very often taken as evidence of a response, is the similarity of periodicities between several solar activity indices and different meteorological parameters. The literature contains a long history of positive or negative correlations between weather and climate parameters like temperature, rainfall, droughts, etc. and solar activity cycles like the 27-day cycle, the prominent 11-year sunspot cycle, the 22-year Hale cycle and the Gleissberg cycle of 80–90 years. A review of these different cycles is provided as well as some of the correlative analyses between them and several stratospheric parameters (like stratospheric geopotential heights, temperature and ozone concentration) and tropospheric parameters (like temperature, rainfall, water level in lakes and river flooding, clouds) that point to a relationship of some kind. However, the suspicion on these relationships will remain as long as an indisputable physical mechanism, which might act to produce these correlations, is not available.     

Evaluating sun–climate relationships since the Little Ice Age

From the coldest period of the Little Ice Age to the present time, the surface temperature of the Earth increased by perhaps 0.8°C. Solar variability may account for part of this warming which, during the past 350 years, generally tracks fluctuating solar activity levels. While increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are widely assumed to be the primary cause of recent climate change, surface temperatures nevertheless varied significantly during pre-industrial periods, under minimal levels of greenhouse gas variations. A climate forcing of 0.3 W m⁻² arising from a speculated 0.13% solar irradiance increase can account for the 0.3°C surface warming evident in the paleoclimate record from 1650 to 1790, assuming that climate sensitivity is 1°C W⁻¹ m⁻² (which is within the IPCC range). The empirical Sun–climate relationship defined by these pre-industrial data suggests that solar variability may have contributed 0.25°C of the 0.6°C subsequent warming from 1900 to 1990, a scenario which time dependent GCM simulations replicate when forced with reconstructed solar irradiance. Thus, while solar variability likely played a dominant role in modulating climate during the Little Ice Age prior to 1850, its influence since 1900 has become an increasingly less significant component of climate change in the industrial epoch. It is unlikely that Sun–climate relationships can account for much of the warming since 1970, not withstanding recent attempts to deduce long term solar irradiance fluctuations from the observational data base, which has notable occurrences of instrumental drifts. Empirical evidence suggests that Sun–climate relationships exist on decadal as well as centennial time scales, but present sensitivities of the climate system are insufficient to explain these short-term relationships. Still to be simulated over the time scale of the Little Ice Age to the present is the combined effect of direct radiative forcing, indirect forcing via solar-induced ozone changes in the atmosphere, and speculated charged particle mechanisms whose pathways and sensitivities are not yet specified.     

A case study of relationship between GPS PWV and solar variability during the declining phase of solar cycle 23

Water vapor plays an important role in the global climate system. A clear relationship between water vapor and solar activity can explain some physical mechanisms of how solar activity influences terrestrial weather/climate changes. To gain insight of this possible relationship, the atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) as the terrestrial climate response was observed by ground-based GPS receivers over the Antarctic stations. The PWV changes analyzed for the period from 2003 to 2008 coincided with the declining phase of solar cycle 23 exhibited following the solar variability trend. Their relationship showed moderate to strong correlation with 0.45 < R ² < 0.93 (p < 0.01), on a monthly basis. This possible relationship suggests that when the solar-coupled geomagnetic activity is stronger, the Earth’s surface will be warmer, as indicated by electrical connection between ionosphere and troposphere.     

The SOLAR2000 empirical solar irradiance model and forecast tool

SOLAR2000 is a collaborative project for accurately characterizing solar irradiance variability across the spectrum. A new image- and full-disk proxy empirical solar irradiance model, SOLAR2000, is being developed that is valid in the spectral range of 1–1,000,000 nm for historical modeling and forecasting throughout the solar system. The overarching scientific goal behind SOLAR2000 is to understand how the Sun varies spectrally and through time from X-ray through infrared wavelengths. This will contribute to answering key scientific questions and will aid national programmatic goals related to solar irradiance specification. SOLAR2000 is designed to be a fundamental energy input into planetary atmosphere models, a comparative model with numerical/first principles solar models, and a tool to model or predict the solar radiation component of the space environment. It is compliant with the developing International Standards Organization (ISO) solar irradiance standard. SOLAR2000 captures the essence of historically measured solar irradiances and this expands our knowledge about the quiet and variable Sun including its historical envelope of variability. The implementation of the SOLAR2000 is described, including the development of a new EUV proxy, E10.7, which has the same units as the commonly used F10.7. SOLAR2000 also provides an operational forecasting and global specification capability for solar irradiances and information can be accessed at the website address of http://www.spacenvironment.net.     

Impact of oceans on climate change in drylands

Drylands account for approximately 41% of the global total land area. Significant warming and rare precipitation in drylands result in a fragile ecology and deterioration of the living environment, making it more sensitive to global climate change. As an important regulator of the Earth's climate system, the oceans play a vital role in the process of climate change in drylands. In modern climate change in particular, the impact of marine activities on climate change in drylands cannot be neglected. This paper reviews the characteristics of climate change in drylands over the past 100 years, and summarizes the researches conducted on the impact of marine activities on these changes. The review focuses on the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), El Ni?o and La Ni?a on climate change in drylands, and introduces the mechanisms by which different oceanic oscillation factors synergistically affect climate change in drylands.Studies have shown that global drylands have experienced a significant intensification in warming in the past 100 years, which shows obvious characteristics of interdecadal dry/wet variations. The characteristics of these changes are closely related to the oscillatory factors of the oceanic interdecadal scale. Different phase combinations of oceanic oscillation factors significantly change the land-sea thermal contrast, which in turn affects the westerly jet, planetary wave and blocking frequency, resulting in changes in the temperature and dry/wet characteristics of drylands. With the intensification of climate change in drylands, the impact of marine activities on these regions will reveal new characteristics in the future, which will increase the uncertainty of future climate change in drylands and intensify the impact of these drylands on global climate.     

Assessing the impact of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation on evapotranspiration

The impact of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation on the long-term mean annual evapotranspiration as well as on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration is studied using a stochastic soil moisture model within the Budyko framework. Results indicate that given the same long-term mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation, including interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation reduces the long-term mean annual evapotranspiration. This reduction effect is mostly prominent when the dryness index (i.e., the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation) is within the range from 0.5 to 2. The maximum reductions in the evaporation ratio (i.e., the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation) can reach 8–10% for a range of coefficient of variation (CV) values for precipitation and potential evaporation. The relations between the maximum reductions and the CV values of precipitation and potential evaporation follow power laws. Hence the larger the interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation becomes, the larger the reductions in the evaporation ratio will be. The inclusion of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation also increases the interannual variability of evapotranspiration. It is found that the interannual variability of daily rainfall depth and that of the frequency of daily rainfall events have quantitatively different impacts on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration; and they also interact differently with the interannual variability of potential evaporation. The results presented in this study demonstrate the importance of understanding the role of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation in land surface hydrology under a warming climate.     

Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change

We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing.     

地磁活动对气候要素影响的研究进展

地磁活动是太阳爆发现象引起地球近地空间磁场扰动的重要空间天气过程之一.地球磁场的变化具有多种时间尺度,其中从数十年到数世纪的长时间地磁场变化主要是由地核磁场引起的,而从数秒到数年的短时间地磁变化与太阳活动有关.近年来,越来越多的统计研究表明,地磁活动与太阳活动和地球气候变化之间存在着显著的相关性.地球磁场和地球大气系统的耦合现象驱动着人们探索地磁活动对地球天气和气候系统影响的研究.本文的目的就是综述国内外地磁变化对气候影响的研究进展,介绍我们最新的研究成果,探索地磁活动对气候要素的影响特征和可能机理过程,为深入研究地磁活动对地球天气和气候的影响提供基础和依据,以期对地磁活动和气候要素关系有进一步的认识.     

Impact of bushfire and climate variability on streamflow from forested catchments in southeast Australia

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impacts of bushfire and climate variability on streamflow from three southeast Australian catchments where bushfires occurred in February 1983. Three hydrological models (AWRA-L, Xinanjiang and GR4J) were first calibrated against streamflow data from the pre-bushfire period and then used to simulate runoff for the post-bushfire period with the calibrated parameters. The difference in simulated streamflow between pre- and post-bushfire periods provides an estimate of the impact of climate variability on streamflow. The impact of bushfire on streamflow is quantified by removing the climate variability impact from the difference in mean annual observed streamflow between post- and pre-bushfire periods. For the first 15 years after the 1983 bushfires, the results from hydrological models for the three catchments indicate that there is a substantial increase in streamflow; this is attributed to initial decreases in evapotranspiration and soil infiltration rates resulting from the fires, followed by logging activity. After 15 years, streamflow dynamics are more heavily influenced by climate effects, although some impact from fire and logging regeneration may still occur. The results show that hydrological models provide reasonably consistent estimates of bushfire and climate impacts on streamflow for the three catchments. The models can be used to quantify relative contributions of forest disturbance (bushfire, logging and other forest management) and climate variability. The results presented can also help forest managers understand the relationship between bushfire and climate variability impacts on water yield in the context of climate variability.     

Attributing runoff changes to climate variability and human activities: uncertainty analysis using four monthly water balance models

Hydrological simulations to delineate the impacts of climate variability and human activities are subjected to uncertainties related to both parameter and structure of the hydrological models. To analyze the impact of these uncertainties on the model performance and to yield more reliable simulation results, a global calibration and multimodel combination method that integrates the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) and Bayesian Model Averaging of four monthly water balance models was proposed. The method was applied to the Weihe River Basin, the largest tributary of the Yellow River, to determine the contribution of climate variability and human activities to runoff changes. The change point, which was used to determine the baseline period (1956–1990) and human-impacted period (1991–2009), was derived using both cumulative curve and Pettitt’s test. Results show that the combination method from SCEM provides more skillful deterministic predictions than the best calibrated individual model, resulting in the smallest uncertainty interval of runoff changes attributed to climate variability and human activities. This combination methodology provides a practical and flexible tool for attribution of runoff changes to climate variability and human activities by hydrological models.     

Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in semiarid regions: a case study of the Wei River basin,China

Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activity on the hydrological processes in river basins is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining local economic development. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate variability and human activity on mean annual flow in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and wavelet transform were applied to detect the variations of hydrometeorological variables in the semiarid Wei River basin in the northwestern China. The identifications were based on streamflow records from 1958 to 2008 at four hydrological stations as well as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 21 climate stations. A simple method based on Budyko curve was used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change and human activities on mean annual flow. The results show that annual streamflow decreased because of the reduced precipitation and increased PET at most stations. Both annual and seasonal precipitation and PET demonstrated mixed trends of decreasing and increasing, although significant trends (P < 0.05) were consistently detected in spring and autumn at most stations. Significant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year (P < 0.05) were examined in all the time series. The spectrum of streamflow at the Huaxian station shows insignificant annual cycle during 1971–1975, 1986–1993 and 1996–2008, which is probably resulted from human activities. Climate variability greatly affected water resources in the Beiluo River, whereas human activities (including soil and water conservation, irrigation, reservoirs construction, etc.) accounted more for the changes of streamflow in the area near the Huaxian station during different periods. The results from this article can be used as a reference for water resources planning and management in the semiarid Wei River basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Possible manifestation of nonlinear effects when solar activity affects climate changes

The response of the nonlinear oscillatory system to an insignificant external disturbance has been considered as applied to the effect of solar activity on climatic processes. Based on a simplified model, it has been indicated that the response of a nonlinear oscillator to a weak disturbing impact can be substantial. The oscillator fluctuation spectrum can decrease under the action of a disturbing factor. This means that the effect of an even weak solar or cosmophysical signal to the Earth’s climatic system can lead to significant climate variations if this system is nonlinear. However, it will be rather difficult to identify the solar—climatic nature of these variations because a linear relation between the cause and response is absent.     

Relationship between solar radiation and dimethylsulfide concentrations using in situ data for the pristine region of the southern hemisphere

The biological processes have been proposed as climate variability contributors. Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is the main biogenic sulfur compound in the atmosphere; it is mainly produced by the marine biosphere and plays an important role in the atmospheric sulfur cycle. Currently it is accepted that terrestrial biota not only adapts to environmental conditions but also influences them through regulations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere. In the present study we used a wavelet method to investigate the relationship between DMS, Low cloud cover (LCC), Ultraviolet Radiation A (UVA), Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the so called pristine zone of the Southern Hemisphere. We found that the series analyzed have different periodicities which can be associated with large scale climatic phenomena such as El Niño (ENSO) or the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and/or to solar activity. Our results show an intermittent but sustained DMS-SST correlation and a DMSUVA anti correlation; but DMS-TSI and DMS-LCC show nonlinear relationships. The time-span of the series allow us to study only periodicities shorter than 11 years, then we limit our analysis to the possibility that solar radiation influences the Earth climate in periods shorter than the 11-year solar cycle. Our results also suggest a positive feedback interaction between DMS and solar radiation.     

Simulating temporal variability in catchment response using a monthly rainfall–runoff model

Abstract

Temporal variability can result from shifts in climate, or from changes in the runoff response due to land- or water-use changes, and represents a potential source of uncertainty in calibrating hydrological models. Parameter values were determined using Monte Carlo parameter sampling methods for a monthly rainfall–runoff model (Pitman model) for different sub-periods on four catchments, with different types and degrees of temporal variability, in Australia and Africa. For some catchments, parameters were not dependent upon the sub-period used and fell within expected ranges given the relatively high degree of model equifinality. In other catchments, dependencies can be identified that are associated with signals contained within the sub-periods. While the Pitman model is relatively robust in the face of temporal variability, it is concluded that better simulations will always be obtained from calibration data that include signals representing the total variability in climate, land-use change and catchment responses.     

Global climate change and its impacts on water resources planning and management: assessment and challenges

Population explosion and its many associated effects (e.g. urbanization, water pollution, deforestation) have already caused enormous stress on the world’s fresh water resources and, in turn, environment, health, and economy. According to latest World Health Organization estimates, about 900 million people still lack access to safe drinking water, about 2.5 billion people lack access to proper sanitation, millions of people die every year from water-related disasters and diseases, and economic losses in the order of billions of dollars occur due to water-related disasters. With the global climate change anticipated to have threatening consequences on our water resources and environment both at the global level and at local/regional levels (e.g. increases in the number and magnitude of floods and droughts, increases in sea levels), a general assessment is that the future state of our water resources will be a lot worse than it is now. The facts that over 300 rivers around the world are being shared by two or more nation states and that there are already numerous conflicts in the planning, development, and management of water resources in these basins further complicate matters for future water resources planning. In view of these, any sincere effort towards proper management of our future water resources and resolving potential future water-related conflicts will need to overcome many challenges. These challenges are both biophysical science-related and human science-related. The biophysical science challenges include: identification of the actual causes of climate change, development of global climate models (GCMs) that can adequately incorporate these causes to generate dependable future climate projections at larger scales, formulation of appropriate techniques to downscale the GCM outputs to local conditions for hydrologic predictions, and reliable estimation of the associated uncertainties in all these. The human science challenges have social, political, economic, and environmental facets that often act in an interconnected manner; proper ‘communication’ of (or lack thereof) our climate-water ‘scientific’ research activities to fellow scientists and engineers, policy makers, economists, industrialists, farmers, and the public at large crucially contributes to these challenges. The present study is intended to review the current state of our water resources and the climate change problem and to detail the challenges in dealing with the potential impacts of climate change on our water resources.     

Solar ultraviolet irradiance and its temporal variation

Solar radiation at wavelengths below 300 nm is almost completely absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere, becoming the dominant direct energy source and playing a major role in the chemistry and dynamics. Even small changes in this incoming radiation field will have both direct and indirect influences on atmospheric processes, and perhaps will affect the Earth’s climate as well. Some of the very earliest space missions included devices to measure solar ultraviolet irradiance, but for the most part they lacked the necessary precision and accuracy to record true solar variability over long time periods. The technology has continued to improve, and today reliable measurements over time scales up to, and including, the 11-year solar cycle, are being obtained. This review provides a summary of measurements made during the most recent solar cycle (number 22 extending from 1986 1996), with emphasis on the spectral range 120-300 nm. Comparisons and validations of recent data sets are considered, together with an assessment of the present understanding of the solar variations. There is now general agreement that for solar cycle 22 the variation is as large as a factor of two at the shortest wavelengths, decreasing to roughly 10% near 200 nm. Proceeding to wavelengths above 200 nm the solar variability continues to decrease, and at about 300 nm it becomes smaller than the present measurement capability of about 1%.     

Hydrological responses to climate shifts for a minimally disturbed mountainous watershed in northwestern China

Much attention has been focused on investigating the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on runoff; however, the influence of wind speed, relative humidity and total solar radiation on hydrological components needs to be studied further. Hydrological responses to climate variations in a minimally disturbed mountainous watershed in the period 1971–2012 are identified and evaluated by statistical analysis and hydrological simulation. The results indicate that the impact of climate component changes on the hydrological process cannot be discounted. The temperature and relative humidity exhibit significant upward trends, while the wind speed exhibits a clear downward trend. The potential and actual evapotranspiration dramatically increased, but the observed pan evaporation substantially decreased. The surface water, soil water, baseflow and water yield are positively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity but negatively correlated with the temperature, wind speed and solar radiation.