The sunspot cycle, the QBO, and the total ozone over Northeastern Europe: a connection through the dynamics of stratospheric circulation

The interaction between the factors of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle is considered as an separate factor influencing the interannual January–March variations of total ozone over Northeastern Europe. Linear correlation analysis and the running correlation method are used to examine possible connections between ozone and solar activity at simultaneous moment the QBO phase. Statistically significant correlations between the variations of total ozone in February and, partially, in March, and the sunspot numbers during the different phases of QBO are found. The running correlation method between the ozone and the equatorial zonal wind demonstrates a clear modulation of 11-y solar signal for February and March. Modulation is clearer if the QBO phases are defined at the level of 50 hPa rather than at 30 hPa. The same statistical analyses are conducted also for possible connections between the index of stratospheric circulation C₁ and sunspot numbers considering the QBO phase. Statistically significant connections are found for February. The running correlations between the index C₁ and the equatorial zonal wind show the clear modulation of 11-y solar signal for February and March. Based on the obtained correlations between the interannual variations of ozone and index C₁, it may be concluded that a connection between solar cycle – QBO – ozone occurs through the dynamics of stratospheric circulation.     

冬季太阳11年周期活动对大气环流的影响

利用气象场的再分析资料和太阳辐射活动资料,对太阳11年周期活动影响北半球冬季(11月~3月)大气环流的过程进行了统计分析和动力学诊断.根据赤道平流层纬向风准两年振荡(QBO)的东、西风状态对太阳活动效应进行了分类讨论,结果表明：东风态QBO时,太阳活动效应主要集中在赤道平流层中、高层和南半球平流层,强太阳活动时增强的紫外辐射加热了赤道地区的臭氧层,造成平流层低纬明显增温,同时加强了南半球的Brewer-Dobson(B-D)环流,引起南极高纬平流层温度增加;而北半球中高纬的环流主要受行星波的影响,太阳活动影响很小.西风态QBO时,太阳活动效应在北半球更为重要,初冬时强太阳活动除了加热赤道地区臭氧层外,还抑制了北半球的B-D环流,造成赤道平流层温度增加和纬向风梯度在垂直方向的变化,从而改变了对流层两支行星波波导的强度;冬末时在太阳活动调制下,行星波向极波导增强,B-D环流逐渐恢复,造成北半球极地平流层明显增温,同时伴随着赤道区域温度的下降.     

Quasi-biennial oscillation in ozone and temperature over tropics

Spatiotemporal variations of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in temperature and ozone over the tropical–subtropical belts (40°N–40°S) have been studied using Microwave Limb Sounder data for the period 1992–1999. Wavelet analysis has been performed to study inter-annual variations in amplitude and phases of the QBO. Latitude-height cross-sections of the amplitudes of temperature and ozone QBO exhibit a double-peak structure near the equator. Phase structure reveals that the temperature QBO descended faster than the ozone QBO. Cross-wavelet analysis shows an anti-phase relation between the amplitudes of the temperature and ozone QBO in the upper stratospheric region, whereas in-phase relation exists in the middle stratospheric region.     

Stratospheric wave activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, strong correlations between the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and calculated three-dimensional Eliassen–Palm vertical fluxes are indicated in December 1958–1976 and 1992–2006. These correlations between the interannual variations of the SST anomalies and the penetration of planetary waves into the stratosphere are much less during the decadal sub-period 1976–1992 in the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the decadal cold SST anomalies in the North Pacific. Interannual variations of the polar jet in the lower stratosphere in January are strongly associated with SST anomalies in the Aleutian Low region in December for the years with positive PDO index. This sub-period corresponds well with that of the violation of the Holton–Tan relationship between the equatorial Quasi-Beinnial Oscillation (QBO) and the stratospheric circulation in the extra-tropics. It is shown that interannual and interdecadal variations of stratospheric dynamics, including stratospheric warming occurrences in January, depend strongly on changes of the upward propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere over North Eurasia in preceding December. These findings give evidences of a large impact of the decadal SST variations in the North Pacific on wave activity in early winter due to changes of thermal excitation of planetary waves during distinct decadal periods. Possible causes of the decadal violation of the Holton–Tan relationship, its relation to the PDO and an influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the stratosphere are discussed.     

Uncertainties of the relationship between the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation, the Arctic stratosphere and solar forcing

Two different equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indices, two reanalyses and radiosonde observations are used to analyze the Arctic stratospheric temperature and height. This analysis was used to assess the uncertainties in the connection of solar forcing, QBO and the Arctic variability. The results show that (1) the frequency of the westerly/easterly phases of the QBO over the stratospheric equator has a significant multiple peak seasonal variation. The primary seasonal peaks occur in February, March and April for the westerly phase of the QBO and the easterly phase peaks in June, July and August. (2) The correlation of stratospheric Arctic temperature and height with the solar radio flux shows statistical significance in February or July/August even if there is no stratified phase of QBO (easterly and westerly phases) involved. However, when the correlation was computed according to the stratified phase of QBO, the solar signals in both temperature and height fields are remarkably amplified in February and November under the westerly phase, but the signal in the height field is most significant only in August under the easterly phase. (3) The impact of the QBO and solar forcing on the stratospheric temperature and heights in the Arctic varies depending on the season. The impacts are also sensitive to the specific height of the QBO-defined level that is used, the specific period of the analysis and the dataset used.     

Modeling the temperature of the polar mesopause region: Part I—Inter-annual and long-term variations generated by the stratospheric QBO

We present results from the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which focus on the temperature environment of the mesopause region where polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) form. The PMC occur in summer and are observed varying on time scales from months to years, and the NSM describes the dynamical processes that can generate the temperature variations involved. The NSM simulates the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which dominates the zonal circulation of the lower stratosphere at equatorial latitudes. The modeled QBO extends into the upper mesosphere, due to gravity wave (GW) filtering, consistent with UARS zonal wind and TIMED temperature measurements. While the QBO zonal winds are confined to equatorial latitudes, the associated temperature variations extend to high latitudes. The meridional circulation redistributes the QBO energy—and the resulting temperature oscillations away from the equator produce inter-annual variations that can exceed 5 K in the polar mesopause region, with considerable differences between the two hemispheres. The NSM shows that the 30-month QBO produces a 5-year or semi-decadal (SD) oscillation, and stratospheric NCEP data provide observational evidence for that. This SD oscillation extends in the temperature to the upper mesosphere, where it could contribute to the long-term variations of the region.     

The QBO effect on the solar signal in the global stratosphere in the winter of the Northern Hemisphere

This paper contains correlations between the NCEP/NCAR global stratospheric data below 10 hPa and the 11-year solar cycle. In the north summer the correlations between the stratospheric geopotential heights and the 11-year solar cycle are strong and positive on the Northern Hemisphere and as far south as 30°S, whereas they are weak in the north winter all over the globe. If the global stratospheric heights and temperatures in the north winter are stratified according to the phase of the QBO in the lower stratosphere, their correlations with the solar cycle are large and positive in the Arctic in the west years of the QBO but insignificantly small over the rest of the earth, as far as the South Pole. In the east years, however, the arctic correlations with the solar cycle are negative, but to the south they are positive and strong in the tropical and temperate regions of both hemispheres, similar to the correlations with the full series of stratospheric data in the other seasons. The influence of the solar cycle in the Arctic is stronger in the latter half of the winter. The global difference, in the northern winter, in the sign and strength of the correlations between the stratospheric heights and temperatures and the solar cycle in east and west years of the QBO can be ascribed to the fact that the dominant stratospheric teleconnection and the solar influence work in the same direction in the east years, but oppose each other in the west years.     

Solar response in the vertical structure of ozone and temperature in the tropical stratosphere

The aim of the present paper is to study the solar response in the vertical structure of ozone and temperature over the Indian tropical region and a search for any mutual relationship between their solar coefficients on a decadal scale in the lower stratosphere. For the purpose, the data obtained by ozonesonde and Umkehr methods for the lower stratospheric ozone and that of the total ozone amount from Dobson spectrophotometer during the period 1979–2001 have been analyzed. These data are analyzed using the multi-functional regression model, which takes into account most of the known natural and anthropogenic signals. The NCEP- and MSU-satellite data for the temperature over this region have been used. Results indicate an in-phase correlation of around 0.5 between ozone and solar flux (F10.7) in the vertical structure over the equatorial station, Trivandrum (8.3°N) but no significant correlation over Pune (18.3°N). The solar components of ozone and temperature indicate an in-phase but poor correlation in the lower stratospheric altitudes over both stations. However, when total ozone content data is analyzed, it indicates a very high correlation (⩾0.9) between the solar components of ozone and temperature. The solar trend in the vertical distribution of ozone is found to be of the order of 5–25% per 100 units of F10.7 solar flux for Trivandrum but it is relatively smaller (1.6–15.2%) over Pune. The solar dependence of temperature is found to be quite significant for the entire Indian tropical region with not much latitudinal variation.     

Combined solar and QBO effects on the modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere

We examine joint effects of the solar activity and phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on modes of low-frequency variability of tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. The winter months (December–March) are stratified by the solar activity into two (below/above median) classes, and each of these classes is subdivided by the QBO phase (west or east). The variability modes are determined by rotated principal component analysis of 500 hPa heights separately in each class of solar activity and QBO phase. Detected are all the modes known to exist in the Northern Hemisphere. The solar activity and QBO jointly affect the shapes, spatial extent, and intensity of the modes; the QBO effects are, however, generally weaker than those of solar activity. For both solar maxima and minima, there is a tendency to the east/west phase of QBO to be accompanied by a lower/higher activity of zonally oriented modes and increased meridionality/zonality of circulation. This means that typical characteristics of circulation under solar minima, including a more meridional appearance of the modes and less activity of zonal modes, are strengthened during QBO-E; on the other hand, circulation characteristics typical of solar maxima, such as enhanced zonality of the modes and more active zonal modes, are more pronounced during QBO-W. Furthermore, the zonal modes in the Euro-Atlantic and Asian sectors (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic pattern, and North Asian pattern) shift southwards in QBO-E, the shift being stronger in solar maxima.     

Implications for the low latitude cloud formations from solar activity and the quasi-biennial oscillation

We examined the effect of the 11-year solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the ～27-day solar rotational period detected in tropical convective cloud activity. We analyzed the data of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for AD1979–2004, dividing into four different cases by the combination of high and low solar activities in terms of the 11-year variation, and easterly and westerly stratospheric winds associated with QBO. As a result, ～27-day variation has been most significantly detected in high solar activity period around the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Based on correlation analysis, we find that solar rotation signal can explain 10–20% of OLR variability around the tropical warm pool region during the high solar activity period. The spatial distribution has been, however, apparently different according to the phases of QBO. It is suggested that the 11-year solar cycle and stratospheric QBO have a possibility to cause large-scale oceanic dipole phenomena.     

Solar cycle changes to planetary wave propagation and their influence on the middle atmosphere circulation

Recent observations suggest that there may be a causal relationship between solar activity and the strength of the winter Northern Hemisphere circulation in the stratosphere. A three-dimensional model of the atmosphere between 10–140 km was developed to assess the influence of solar minimum and solar maximum conditions on the propagation of planetary waves and the subsequent changes to the circulation of the stratosphere. Ultraviolet heating in the middle atmosphere was kept constant in order to emphasise the importance of non-linear dynamical coupling. A realistic thermo-sphere was achieved by relaxing the upper layers to the MSIS-90 empirical temperature model. In the summer hemisphere, strong radiative damping prevents significant dynamical coupling from taking place. Within the dynamically controlled winter hemisphere, small perturbations are reinforced over long periods of time, resulting in systematic changes to the stratospheric circulation. The winter vortex was significantly weakened during solar maximum and western phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation, in accordance with reported 30 mb geopotential height and total ozone measurements.     

Properties of QBO and SAO generated by gravity waves

In this paper we present an extension for the 2D (zonal mean) version of our numerical spectral mode (NSM) that incorporates Hines’ Doppler spread parameterization (DSP) for small-scale gravity waves (GW). This model is applied to describe the seasonal variations and the semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations (SAO and QBO). Our earlier model reproduced the salient features of the mean zonal circulation in the middle atmosphere, including the QBO extension into the upper mesosphere inferred from UARS measurements. The model is extended to reproduce the upwelling at equatorial latitudes that is associated with the Brewer–Dobson circulation — which affects significantly the dynamics of the stratosphere as Dunkerton had pointed out. In the presence of GW, this upwelling is produced in our model with tropospheric heating, which generates also zonal jets outside the tropics similar to those observed. The resulting upward vertical winds increase the period of the QBO. To compensate for that, one needs to increase the eddy diffusivity and the GW momentum flux, bringing the latter closer to values recommended in the DSP. The QBO period in the model is 30 months (mo), which is conducive to synchronize this oscillation with the seasonal cycle of solar forcing. Associated with this QBO are interannual and interseasonal variations that become increasingly more important at higher altitudes — and this variability is interpreted in terms of GW filtering that effectively couples the dynamical components of the mesosphere. The computed temperature amplitudes for the SAO and QBO are in substantial agreement with observations at equatorial and extra-tropical latitudes. At high latitudes, however, the observed QBO amplitudes are significantly larger, which may be a signature of propagating planetary waves not included in the present model. The assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium not being imposed, we find that the effects from the vertical Coriolis force associated with the equatorial oscillations are large for the vertical winds and significant for the temperature variations even outside the tropics, but the effects are small for the zonal winds.     

Trends in total ozone and the effect of the equatorial zonal wind QBO

Trends in total column ozone have been analyzed in terms of the equatorial zonal wind. We used zonal monthly mean total ozone from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and monthly mean zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere at 30 hPa to define the phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Total column ozone trends have been assessed during the period 1979–2004, for both Hemispheres, and for each month, under three conditions considering, all the ozone dataset, ozone values during easterly phase and ozone values during westerly phase of the QBO. When the whole dataset is considered, negative trends are observed. From low to midlatitudes a zonal pattern is noticed with increasing negative values toward higher latitudes. When the data is filtered according to the QBO phase, statistically significant positive trends appear in the westerly case during January to May at low latitudes .The trend pattern in the case of the easterly phase presents more negative values.     

On the Spectral Decomposition of Geopotential and Temperature Fields in the Stratosphere

The spectral structure of stratospheric fields (temperature and geopotential) is analyzed in terms of spherical harmonics in an effort to study the long-term behaviour of large-scale circulation patterns, as well as their connections to some extra-terrestrial effects. The daily meteorological data from the Free University Berlin (FUB) cover more or less the period 1976–1996 and are available for stratospheric levels of 50, 30 and 10 hPa. The analysis of the annual cycle of spherical harmonics is introduced, and changes of the principal wave components are compared with the changes in different sets of solar, geomagnetic and global circulation indices. This paper also deals with interannual variability with special emphasis on quasibiennial oscillations (QBO) and El Nino and Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Although this is a rather preliminary study, the decomposition of the stratospheric field into complex spherical harmonics seems to be a powerful technique in investigating and qualifying the response of the global atmospheric system to the changes in solar and geomagnetic activity, and in qualifying the relationships between large-scale circulation patterns and various oscillations such as QBO or ENSO, Using this technique, reasonable strong connections were found between wave numbers and interannual factors, and these connections were tentatively interpreted in terms of statistics. A very high degree of correlation was found for the four-trough shape of the polar vortex.     

Solar UV variability: Effects on stratospheric ozone,trace constituents and thermal structure

The effect of long-term (11-year solar cycle) solar UV variability on stratospheric chemical and thermal structure has been studied using a time-dependent one-dimensional model. Previous studies have suggested substantial variations in local and total ozone, and in stratospheric thermal structure from solar minimum to solar maximum. It is shown here that significant variations also occur in some of the trace constituents. Members of the HO _x family and N₂O exhibit the largest variations, and these changes, if detected, may provide additional means of verifying the presence of solar UV variability and its effects. Some of the species show large phase differences with the assumed solar flux variation. The role of chemical and transport time constants on the time variations of the trace species is examined. Comparisons with reported ozone and temperature data show reasonable agreement for the period 1960 to 1972.     

The role of dynamics in total ozone deviations from their long-term mean over the Northern Hemisphere

Total ozone anomalies (deviation from the long-term mean) are created by anomalous circulation patterns. The dynamically produced ozone anomalies can be estimated from known circulation parameters in the layer between the tropopause and the middle stratosphere by means of statistics. Satellite observations of ozone anomalies can be compared with those expected from dynamics. Residual negative anomalies may be due to chemical ozone destruction. The statistics are derived from a 14 year data set of TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer January 1979-Dec. 1992) and corresponding 300 hPa geopotential (for the tropopause height) together with 30 hPa temperature (for stratospheric waves) at 60°N. The correlation coefficient for the linear multiple regression between total ozone (dependent variable) and the dynamical parameters (independent variables) is 0.88 for the zonal deviations in the winter of the Northern Hemisphere. Zonal means are also significantly dependent on circulation parameters, besides showing the known negative trend function of total ozone observed by TOMS. The significant linear trend for 60°N is 3 DU/year in the winter months taking into account the dependence on the dynamics between the tropopause region and the mid-stratosphere. The highest correlation coefficient for the monthly mean total ozone anomalies is reached in November with 0.94.     

The role of the stratosphere in climate change

A variety of climate perturbations have the potential to alter the thermodynamic and dynamical characteristics of the middle atmosphere, which may then affect tropospheric climate. Increased thermal emission from rising stratospheric CO₂ levels and scattering of solar radiation from stratospheric volcanic aerosols have a direct impact on surface temperatures, while variations in stratospheric water vapor and ozone can affect tropospheric temperatures. Observations and modeling experiments suggest that these perturbations, as well as solar irradiance variations operating through the stratosphere, may affect tropospheric dynamics, such as planetary wave amplitudes and Hadley cell intensity. In addition, climate changes will probably alter tropospheric/stratospheric exchange, with the potential for modifying trace gas distributions and climate forcing. These issues are reviewed in the light of the incorporation of middle atmosphere studies into IGBP.     

Annual and semiannual oscillations of stratospheric ozone

The global structures of annual oscillation (AO) and semiannual oscillation (SAO) of stratospheric ozone are examined by applying spherical harmonic analysis to the ozone data obtained from the Nimbus-7 solar backscattered UV-radiation (SBUV) measurements for the period November 1978 to October 1980. Significant features of the results are: (1) while the stratospheric ozone AO is prevalent only in the polar regions, the ozone SAO prevails both in the equatorial and polar stratospheres; (2) the vertical distribution of the equatorial ozone SAO has a broad maximum of the order of 0.5 (mixing ratio in g/g) and the maximum appears earlier at high altitude (shifting from May [and November] at 0.3 mb [60 km] to November [and May] at 40 mb); (3) above the 40 km level, the maximum of the polar ozone SAO shifts upward towards later phase with altitude with a rate of approximately 10 km/month in both hemispheres; (4) vertical distributions of the polar ozone AOs and SAOs show two peaks in amplitude with a minimum (nodal layer) in between and a rapid phase change with altitude takes place in the respective nodal layers; and (5) the heights of the ozone AO- and SAO-peaks decrease with latitude. The main part of AOs and SAOs of stratospheric ozone including hemispheric asymmetries is ascribable to: (i) temperature dependent ozone photochemistry in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, (ii) variations of radiation field in the lower stratosphere affected by the annual cycle of solar illumination and temperature in the upper stratosphere and (iii) meridional ozone transport by dynamical processes in the lower stratosphere.     

大气准两年振荡的电离层效应

本文研究赤道异常逐日起伏程度的年变化规律,发现它与太阳活动及地磁活动呈微弱的负相关,但却受到QBO的明显调制,QBO东风相起伏加大,QBO西风相起伏减小.这一事实似乎表明,太阳爆发或磁暴不是产生赤道异常逐日起伏的主要原因;而上行行星波的扰动有可能是引起赤道异常逐日起伏的主要原因.     

Total ozone response to major geomagnetic storms and changes in meteorological situations

Summary The total ozone response to strong major geomagnetic storms (A_p≥60) in winter along the 50° N latitudinal circle is studied. The results add to the recent results of Laštovička et al. (1992) obtained for European middle latitudes (∼50°N) and to the results of Mlch (1994). A significant response of total ozone is only observed in winter under high solar activity/E-phase of QBO conditions (E-max) and seems to be caused by geomagnetic storm-induced changes of atmospheric dynamics. There are two sectors along latitude 50°N, which are sensitive to forcing by geomagnetic storms both in total ozone and the troposphere — north-eastern Atlantic-European and eastern Siberia-Aleutian sectors. The total ozone response under E-max conditions manifests itself mainly as a large decrease in the longitudinal variation of ozone after the storm, which means an increase of ozone in Europe. The observed effects in total ozone consist in redistribution, not production or loss of ozone.