Nonlinear feature of the abrupt transitions between multiple equilibria states of an ecosystem model

Based on a five-variable theoretical ecosystem model, the stability of equilibrium state and the nonlinear feature of the transition between a grassland state and a desert state are investigated. The approach of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs), which are the nonlinear generalization of the linear singular vectors (LSVs), is adopted. The numerical results indicate that the linearly stable grassland and desert states are nonlinearly unstable to large enough initial perturbations on the condition that the moisture index $\mu$ satisfies 0.3126<μ<0.3504. The perturbations represent some kind of anthropogenic influence and natural factors. The results obtained by CNOPs, LSVs and Lyapunov vectors (LVs) are compared to analyze the nonlinear feature of the transition between the grassland state and the desert state. Besides this, it is shown that the five-variable model is superior to the three-variable model in providing more visible signals when the transitions occur.     

ON THE BAROTROPIC INSTABILITY OF LARGE SCALE VORTICES*

By using the linearized barotropic vorticity equation in polar coordinates the stability of perturbations on a large scale circular basic flow is transformed into a generalized eigenvalue problem,yielding the relationship between the growth rate of the amplitude of perturbations and the azimuthal wave number. Then, numerical experiments whose integration time is 60 model hours are performed in terms of a quasi-geostrophic barotropic model in Cartesian coordinates using the perturbation stream function field of unstable mode superimposed on a strong and weak circular basic flows as the initial fields. The experimental results reveal that the amplitudes of the initial perturbations in the model atmosphere grow with time. The amplitude of the perturbations superimposedon the strong circular basic flow grows quicker and forms a spiral-band-like structure.     

ON THE BAROTROPIC INSTABILITY OF LARGE SCALE VORTICES

By using the linearized barotropic vorticity equation in polar coordinates the stability of pertur-bations on a large scale circular basic flow is transformed into a generalized eigenvalue problem,yielding the relationship between the growth rate of the amplitude of perturbations and the az-imuthal wave number. Then, numerical experiments whose integration time is 60 model hours areperformed in terms of a quasi-geostrophic barotropic model in Cartesian coordinates using the per-turbation stream function field of unstable mode superimposed on a strong and weak circular basicflows as the initial fields. The experimental results reveal that the amplitudes of the initial pertur-bations in the model atmosphere grow with time. The amplitude of the perturbations superimposedon the strong circular basic flow grows quicker and forms a spiral-band-like structure.     

Criteria for the nonlinear stability of three—dimensional quasi—geostrophic motions

Some more proper criteria for the nonlinear stability of three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic motions are given by combining variational principle with a prior estimates method. The criteria are suitable for perturbations of initial condition as well as parameters in the model. The basic flow can be steady or unsteady. Particularly the difficulty due to the nonlinear boundary condition is completely overcome by the use of our method.     

南海夏季风爆发前后扰动演变及其数值研究

以球面正压涡度方程为数学模型,建立了线性和非线性的数值积分模式,通过在模式中设置不同的基本流场和初始扰动场,研究基流和初始场对扰动发展的作用,揭示在球面正压大气中扰动发展的动力学机制。数值试验结果表明:在线性模式中,扰动的移动和发展与基流的分布有着很密切的关系,基流影响着扰动纬向传播的速度和方向; 在非线性模式中,当基流稳定时,扰动的移动以及传播与线性模式的结果相同,但与线性情况的最大区别在于,此时扰动能量的增长存在上限。同时发现,扰动的发展既依赖于基本气流的分布,也依赖初始扰动的结构;南海夏季风爆发前后的基本流场是正压不稳定的,且这种不稳定在季风爆发时达到最强,这可以成为季风爆发的动力学解释。     

Applications of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to the study of the stability and sensitivity of the Jovian atmosphere

A two-layer quasi-geostrophic model is used to study the stability and sensitivity of motions on smallscale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and linear singular vectors (LSVs) are both obtained numerically and compared in this paper. The results show that CNOPs can capture the nonlinear characteristics of motions in small-scale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere and show great difference from LSVs under the condition that the initial constraint condition is large or the optimization time is not very short or both. Besides, in some basic states, local CNOPs are found. The pattern of LSV is more similar to local CNOP than global CNOP in some cases. The elementary application of the method of CNOP to the Jovian atmosphere helps us to explore the stability of variousscale motions of Jupiter’s atmosphere and to compare the stability of motions in Jupiter’s atmosphere and Earth’s atmosphere further.     

Nonlinear stability analysis of the zonal flows at middle and high latitudes

An attempt has been made to apply Arnol’d type nonlinear stability criteria to the diagnostic study of the persistence (stability) or breakdown (instability) of the atmospheric flows. In the case of the blocking high, the cut-off low and the zonal flow, the relationships of the geostrophic stream function versus the po-tential vorticity of the observed atmosphere are analyzed, which indicates that Arnol'd second type nonlinear stability theorem is more relevant to the observed atmosphere than the first one. For both the sta-ble and unstable zonal flows, Arnol’d second type nonlinear stability criteria are applied to the diagnosis. The primary results show that our analyses correspond well to the evolution of the atmospheric motions. The synoptically stable zonal flows satisfy Arnol'd second type nonlinear stability criteria; while the synoptically unstable ones violate the nonlinear stability criteria.     

On the evolution of finite-amplitude disturbance to the barotropic and baroclinic quasigeostrophic flows

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误差非线性的增长理论及可预报性研究

对非线性系统的误差发展方程不作线性化近似,直接用原始的误差发展方程来研究初始误差的发展,提出了误差非线性的增长理论。首先,在相空间中定义一个非线性误差传播算子,初始误差在这个算子的作用下,可以非线性发展成任意时刻的误差;然后,在此基础上,引入了非线性局部Lyapunov指数的概念。由平均非线性局部Lyapunov指数可以得到误差平均相对增长随时间的演变情况;对于一个混沌系统,误差平均相对增长被证明将趋于一个饱和值,利用这个饱和值,混沌系统的可预报期限可以被定量地确定。误差非线性的增长理论可以应用于有限尺度大小初始扰动的可预报性研究,较误差的线性增长理论有明显的优越性。     

Inducing Unstable Grassland Equilibrium States Due to Nonlinear Optimal Patterns of Initial and Parameter Perturbations: Theoretical Models

Due to uncertainties in initial conditions and parameters,the stability and uncertainty of grassland ecosystem simulations using ecosystem models are issues of concern.Our objective is to determine the types and patterns of initial and parameter perturbations that yield the greatest instability and uncertainty in simulated grassland ecosystems using theoretical models.We used a nonlinear optimization approach,i.e.,a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to initial and parameter perturbations (CNOP) approach,in our work.Numerical results indicated that the CNOP showed a special and nonlinear optimal pattern when the initial state variables and multiple parameters were considered simultaneously.A visibly different complex optimal pattern characterizing the CNOPs was obtained by choosing different combinations of initial state variables and multiple parameters in different physical processes.We propose that the grassland modeled ecosystem caused by the CNOP-type perturbation is unstable and exhibits two aspects:abrupt change and the time needed for the abrupt change from a grassland equilibrium state to a desert equilibrium state when the initial state variables and multiple parameters are considered simultaneously.We compared these findings with results affected by the CNOPs obtained by considering only uncertainties in initial state variables and in a single parameter.The numerical results imply that the nonlinear optimal pattern of initial perturbations and parameter perturbations,especially for more parameters or when special parameters are involved,plays a key role in determining stabilities and uncertainties associated with a simulated or predicted grassland ecosystem.     

Structures of dynamically unstable shear flows and their implications for shallow internal gravity waves part II: Nonlinear response

Summary The nonlinear response of a dynamically unstable shear flow with critical level to an initial temperature anomaly is investigated using a nonlinear numerical model. Both nonconstant and constant shear profiles of the basic flow are considered. Effects of the solid lower boundary on the dynamically unstable, nonlinear flow are also studied. It is found that in a dynamically unstable, linear flow with a hyperbolic tangent wind profile, the updraft is tilted upshear. The result in consistent with that of a linear stability model (LC). The upshear tilt can be explained by the Orr mechanism (1907) and the energy argument proposed by LC. In a dynamically unstable, nonlinear flow, the updrafts produced by a sinusoidal initial temperature perturbation are stronger in the lower layer and are more compact and located further apart compared to the corresponding linear flow. In addition, the perturbed wave energy is slightly smaller than the linear case. It is found that the growth rate is smaller during the early stage and much larger during the later stage. For a localized initial temperature perturbation in a dynamically unstable flow, a stronger updraft with two compensated downdrafts are produced. Gravity waves are produced in a dynamically stable flow with both a hyperbolic tangent wind profile and a linear wind profile. For a linear shear flow with Richardson number less than 1/4, the disturbance grows in the early stage and then decays algebraically at later times, similar to that found in other linear theoretical studies. The influence of the solid lower boundary is to suppress the shear instability in a nonlinear flow with a hyperbolic tangent wind profile ofRi<1/4.With 9 Figures     

线性化物理过程对GRAPES 4DVAR同化的影响

线性化物理过程能够改善四维变分同化中极小化收敛的稳定性和增加极小化过程中对大气物理过程和动力更加精确的描述,它是四维变分同化中非常重要的一部分。通过在GRAPES全球模式中研究线性化物理过程,尤其是两个湿线性化物理过程,改善切线性模式预报精度,来提高GRAPES全球四维变分同化的分析和预报效果。线性化物理过程的开发首先需要简化原非线性化物理过程中的强非线性项,然后对线性化物理过程进行规约化,以抑制切线性扰动的异常增长。目前GRAEPS全球模式中的线性化物理过程主要包括次网格尺度地形参数化、垂直扩散、积云深对流和大尺度凝结。线性化物理过程预报精度的检验方法是通过选择合适大小的初始扰动（同化分析增量）,来比较非线性模式和切线性模式中的扰动演化的纬向平均误差。然后以绝热版本的切线性模式为基础,通过冬、夏两个个例试验来分别检验4个线性化物理过程的12 h预报效果。试验结果表明,通过添加次网格地形参数化和垂直扩散两个干线性化物理过程方案,可以有效抑制住绝热版本切线性模式低层扰动的异常增长,大幅度改善切线性模式预报效果。通过添加积云深对流和大尺度凝结两个湿线性化物理过程,可以在热带区域和中、高纬度地区提高切线性模式中湿变量和温度变量的近似精度,提高GRAPES全球四维变分同化的分析和预报效果。      

Some effects of truncation on topographic instability

Abstract

The topographic stability of forced planetary waves in α β‐channel is investigated using a barotropic model. The equilibrium forced waves are the result of the interaction of a constant mean zonal wind over finite‐amplitude surface orography. Small‐amplitude perturbations of the equilibrium flows are considered that have a wavy part with the same zonal wavenumber as the forcing but an arbitrary meridional structure. The mean zonal part of the perturbations is also taken to be arbitrary. This configuration allows us to (1) isolate those instabilities that depend crucially on topography through form drag and (2) investigate non‐topographic effects on topographic instability that arise from the convergence of Reynolds stresses. A numerical stability analysis is then performed wherein the effects of truncation are emphasized.

This numerical approach casts doubts about the results obtained from some earlier studies involving various ad hoc assumptions. We find, in particular, that unstable long waves (i.e. waves with the zonal wavelength greater than the meridional wavelength) exist under superresonant conditions. This contradicts some previous results that suggest long waves are unstable only when the flow is subresonant. Further, our model reveals the existence of some interesting travelling instabilities. The latter are shown to depend on both form drag and Reynolds stresses in that these two mechanisms alternate in time in supplying the perturbation with the required energy to maintain the exponential growth.     

Wave-CISK与快速增长的对称不稳定

本文应用一准两维的非静力平衡数值模式研究了凝结加热反馈对线性及非线性对称不稳定的影响。数值试验结果表明:当Ri<1时，对于一定的加热廓线，Wave-CISK可以激发出快速增长的线性对称不稳定，其指数增长率比无加热时增加一倍半，并产生向暖区的移动，而加热廓线对对称不稳定的发生发展及结构都有明显的影响。具有凝结加热的非线性对称不稳定在其发展初期与线性情况相同，当扰动增长到一定强度，非线性作用增强，其不稳定增长速度就减慢，原来对称的环流结构被破坏，正环流不断减弱，负环流不断增强。     

Exploring the phase-strength asymmetry of the North Atlantic Oscillation using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

Negative-phase North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) events are generally stronger than positive-phase ones, i.e., there is a phase-strength asymmetry of the NAO. In this work, we explore this asymmetry of the NAO using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method with a three-level global quasi-geostrophic spectral model. It is shown that, with winter climatological flow forcing, the CNOP method identifies the perturbations triggering the strongest NAO event under a given initial constraint. Meanwhile, the phase-strength asymmetry characteristics of the NAO can be revealed. By comparing with linear results, we find that the process of perturbation self-interaction promotes the onset of negative NAO events, which is much stronger than during positive NAO onset. Results are obtained separately using the climatological and zonal-mean flows in boreal winter(December–February) 1979–2006 as the initial basic state. We conclude, based on the fact that NAO onset is a nonlinear initial-value problem, that phase-strength asymmetry is an intrinsic characteristic of the NAO.     

初始扰动对一次华南暴雨预报的影响的研究

本文选取了2006年华南前汛期的一次暴雨过程, 采用AREMv2.3中尺度数值模式进行数值模拟, 分别在模式初始场的物理量场 (温度场、 风场、 湿度场) 上加扰动, 分析不同物理量场上的扰动对降水预报的影响, 以及物理量预报误差和扰动能量的增长情况。同时, 通过本个例讨论误差增长与湿对流的关系, 扰动振幅对误差增长的影响和华南区域的中尺度降水的可预报性问题。数值试验结果表明: 初始时刻不同物理量场加实际振幅的正态分布的随机扰动时, 对降水的影响是不同的。对于24小时降水预报, 温度场对降水的影响最大。误差的增长与湿对流不稳定有着密切的关系。小尺度小振幅误差增长很快, 而且是非线性增长。这意味着短期的较小尺度降水的可预报性很小。与大振幅扰动相比, 小振幅扰动造成的误差较小。但是小振幅扰动的迅速发展, 很快就会对降水预报造成较大的影响。因此, 只能有限地提高预报质量, 而且由于扰动非线性增长很快, 在预报时间的提前上, 不会有太大的改善。     

Nonlinearity and finite-time instability in a T21L3 quasigeostrophic model

In this paper, a nonlinear optimization method is used to explore the finite-time instability of the atmospheric circulation with a three-level quasigeostrophic model under the framework of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). As a natural generalization of linear singular vector (SV), CNOP is defined as an initial perturbation that makes the cost function the maximum at a prescribed forecast time under certain physical constraint conditions. Special attentions are paid to the different structures and energy evolutions of the optimal perturbations.     

线性和非线性横波型不稳定的数值研究

本文应用一个准二维的非线性非静力数值模式研究了线性和非线性横波型不稳定的中尺度模态的发展、演变和结构特征。结果表明：Ｒｉｃｈａｒｄｓｏｎ数对横波型不稳定的发展和演变有影响。Ｒｉ数越小,不稳定增长越快,且增长率最大的波的波长就越短。非线性横波型不稳定在其发展初期,可以用线性理论作很好的近似;随着不稳定的进一步发展,扰动增强,非线性作用增强,其扰动结构与线性情况相比发生了很大变化,扰动结构最后演变成以顺时针环流为主的结构。     

Structures of dynamically unstable shear flows and their implications for shallow internal gravity waves

Summary In this study, the response of a dynamically unstable shear flow with a critical level to periodic forcing is presented. An energy argument is proposed to explain the upshear tilt of updrafts associated with disturbances in two-dimensional stably stratified flows. In a dynamically unstable flow, the energy equation requires an upshear tilt of the perturbation streamfunction and vertical velocity whereU _z is positive. A stability model is constructed using an iteration method. An upshear tilt of the vertical velocity and the streamfunction fields is evident in a dynamically unstable flow, which is required by energy conversion from the basic shear to the growing perturbation wave energy according to the energy argument. The momentum flux profile indicates that the basic flow is decreased (increased) above (below) the critical level. Thus, the shear instability tends to smooth the shear layer. Following the energy argument, a downshear tilt of the updraft is produced in an unstably stratified flow since the perturbation wave energy is negative. The wave energy budget indicates that the disturbance is caused by a thermal instability modified by a shear flow since the potential energy grows faster than the kinetic energy.With 4 Figures     

Phillips模式的斜压不稳定的非线性饱和问题:能量情形

A conservation law for the Phillips model is derived. Using this law, the nonlinear saturation of purely baroclinic instability caused by the vertical velocity shear of the basic flow in the Phillips model-the case of energy-is studied within the context of Arnold's second stability theorem. Analytic upper bounds on the energy of wavy disturbances are obtained. For one unstable region in the parameter plane, the result here is a second-order correction in ε to Shepherd's; For another unstable region, the analytic upper bound on the energy of wavy disturbances offers an effective constraint on wavy (nonzonal) disturbances φ'i at any time.